I noticed @Richard_Nabavi was dismissing those who claimed the govt is hiding the real immigration figures as 'conspiracy theorists' among other insults, as well as muddling the debate with 'asylum seeker' distraction
It is not a conspiracy it is the truth. Pro EU, pro immigration Jonathan Portes has been denied the figures by the govt for various reasons including 'not wanting to damage the PMs renegotiation'
Who knew the immigration figures were guesses extrapolated from four airports???! Crazy
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
All's fair in love and war. And it doesn't have to be 75 million! If at the same rate as Bulgaria then we are talking 400,000 - close to the population of Greater Manchester.
I criticise the Remain side for lying, and I see no reason not to criticise the Leave side for the same offences.
Population Bulgaria 7.25 Million (Google) : number of Bulgarians in UK 65000 (ONS). Population Turkey 75 Million (Google) - same rate = 672000. Population Manchester 517000 (Google) - so yes (without affecting argument) a typo was made.
It's a lie because there is no chance that Turkey will join the EU.
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be thoroughly fed up with it. Life will continue. Attention will turn to other matters. If it's a Remain result, Cameron will stay on for a year or two and then there will be a leadership contest, which will be a leadership contest, not a re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I agree, the Xenophobes just can't help themselves and in the end that will doom the LEAVE campaign in my opinion.
Another member of the Remain camp busy painting Leavers as racists.
You do realise that Europe and the EU are different things, and it's possible to dislike the latter whilst being perfectly happy with the former and its people?
I noticed @Richard_Nabavi was dismissing those who claimed the govt is hiding the real immigration figures as 'conspiracy theorists' among other insults, as well as muddling the debate with 'asylum seeker' distraction
It is not a conspiracy it is the truth. Pro EU, pro immigration Jonathan Portes has been denied the figures by the govt for various reasons including 'not wanting to damage the PMs renegotiation'
Who knew the immigration figures were guesses extrapolated from four airports???! Crazy
Oh - and IMHO he'll be gone in 2016 regardless of the result.
This EU thing does increasingly feel like Iraq doesn't?
Whilst the damage to the Conservatives probably won't be immediate (just as the damage Iraq did to Labour wasn't) I wouldn't be surprised if in the end it goes a long way to destroying the Tories for a very long time (just as Iraq has hung over and pretty well destroyed the Labour Party)
Cameron's name and legacy will be toxic within his Party which is a shame because like you say he has been quite good until he finally unleashed his EUphilia.
I'm still not convinced on Cameron being a massive Europhile, I still think it is Osborne driving this campaign behind the scenes.
One thing's for certain, there's no way I'd ever vote for an Osborne-led Tory Party.
I'd even vote for Corbyn over Toxic Osborne (at least Jezza would shake things up and we'd have no end of fun for his "chaotic" term as PM)
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
Yup. I generally don't attack Cameron that much, but that Hollande moment has to be the low point of his permiership.
The PM stands by while someone threatens his country.
I more or less missed the 'Hollande moment', though I have seen it referred to many times. Can someone give links to both sides please, and the original video/article/speech?
TIA.
Version A - Hollande said that if the UK left the EU there would be "consequences" - which might appear to be a statement of the obvious, unless you are a more excitable LEAVEr in which case
Version B After fellating Hollande, Cameron bent over the lecturn for a good rogering too....
EU referendum: Britain's biggest environmental charities using public cash to call for In vote
Britain's biggest environmental charities have been accused of using public donations to campaign for staying in the European Union.
The charities watchdog will on Monday issue new guidance on political neutrality after Friends of the Earth, The Wildlife Trusts and Greenpeace all made public comments backing EU membership.
Yesterday I cancelled my memberships of the two wildlife trusts I have supported for more than 20 years because of this.
The organisation that I work for isn't a charity (though it has a charitable arm to support e.g. research work), but we agreed to stay neutral on the EU and simply set out the pros and cons related to our issue (basically it's harder to get change if you have to persuade 28 countries, though it has a wider effect if you succeed). Couldn't see an advantage for animal welfare in pitching in either way.
The position may be a bit different for environmental groups, though, since some environment efforts really only work if done on a broad Europe scale - e.g. if only one North Sea country tries to reduce emissions into the water, it's largely wasting its time. We could negotiate such things outside the EU but it's arguably easier to have a joint body collectively committed.
What angers me about this is that for many years the Wildlife Trusts have quite rightly been complaining that EU farming policy - and particularly the fact it changes so often and so radically - has been deeply harmful to efforts to get landowners to work in environmentally friendly ways. Changing the criteria for CAP payments every couple of years means that farmers are continually destrpying the wildlife habitats they had just started to develop.
The Wildlife Trusts have been very vocal about this and about where the blame lies and yet suddenly they are in favour of staying in even though they have made no representations to memberships about this at all.
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
The problems will start after the referendum.
When the migrant crisis continues to go from bad to worse.
When the EU sees our YES vote as the green light from the UK to go "further and faster" on the road to "integration" and, if there's a new recession within the next couple of years, when the Euro finally implodes and takes us off the cliff with it.
Sure, Cameron will get his REMAIN vote, just as Tony defeated Saddam. Cameron will bask in the glory of his "victory" just as Tony did. And then...
It'll all go to hell and years after Cameron has departed the stage, the Tories will still be living with his toxic legacy.
Cameron/REMAIN are making a LOT of claims about how staying in the EU will lead us to the land of motherhood and apple pie. Guess who get's the blame when, within a year or two, the British people realize they've been sold a pup?
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be thoroughly fed up with it. Life will continue. Attention will turn to other matters. If it's a Remain result, Cameron will stay on for a year or two and then there will be a leadership contest, which will be a leadership contest, not a re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
As actual party members (with some of us having 40 years doing the activist stuff) you know that Richard, as I know that as do the vast majority of us foot sluggers whichever way we will vote on June 23rd. But there's no hope of reality getting a hearing with the fervid state of pb at the moment.
An interesting point Alastair makes is that if Remain wins Cameron's standing in the country will be very high. One needs to consider this when thinking how likely it is that he will go quickly if Remain wins. It's easy to talk of forcing him out now in mid-campaign but ejecting a Cameron who has just won - again - and replacing him with one of the losers is another thing altogether.
So would he resign voluntarily? Yes, but he'd try to line things up for Osborne first? I don't think he's going in 2016 if he wins.
The gusto and hard ball tactics employed by Cameron seem pretty clear to me. And that's before tilting the procedural scales rather too much in his favour.
Remainers can hand wave us away, however it's a mistake. Leave is a substantial % of the Tory Party and their voters. Treating us as stupid does them no credit. And it's totally unnecessary.
Oh - and IMHO he'll be gone in 2016 regardless of the result.
This EU thing does increasingly feel like Iraq doesn't?
Whilst the damage to the Conservatives probably won't be immediate (just as the damage Iraq did to Labour wasn't) I wouldn't be surprised if in the end it goes a long way to destroying the Tories for a very long time (just as Iraq has hung over and pretty well destroyed the Labour Party)
Cameron's name and legacy will be toxic within his Party which is a shame because like you say he has been quite good until he finally unleashed his EUphilia.
I'm still not convinced on Cameron being a massive Europhile, I still think it is Osborne driving this campaign behind the scenes.
One thing's for certain, there's no way I'd ever vote for an Osborne-led Tory Party.
I'd even vote for Corbyn over Toxic Osborne (at least Jezza would shake things up and we'd have no end of fun for his "chaotic" term as PM)
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be thoroughly fed up with it. Life will continue. Attention will turn to other matters. If it's a Remain result, Cameron will stay on for a year or two and then there will be a leadership contest, which will be a leadership contest, not a re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
As actual party members (with some of us having 40 years doing the activist stuff) you know that Richard, as I know that as do the vast majority of us foot sluggers whichever way we will vote on June 23rd. But there's no hope of reality getting a hearing with the fervid state of pb at the moment.
As a non party member I can say that the Blues appear to be overrelying on "they have nowhere else to go". Not wise imo.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
I've got a better chance of having a threesome with Miranda Kerr and Rosie Huntington-Whitely than Turkey have of joining the EU. Anyone who says this is going to happen is either a deluded eurofanatic or a liar sceptic.
Hold on. Cameron's and British foreign policy is for Turkey to join EU. Has been for years. See for example:
So, although I am a Remainer, I don't see why this shouldn't be a legitimate debating point (hopefully without the lurid headlines and made-up numbers).
In this instance it really doesn't matter what the UK Government's position is. There are too many EU members far closer to Turkey who would oppose any move to accession. And Turkey is actually moving further away from meeting accession criteria not nearer.
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
We elect a government to govern.
But are LEAVE going to be bold enough and honest enough to say that BREXIT will make no difference to immigration or are they just going to hope to slide by on a false prospectus?
I accept you are not bothered about immigration yourself but for many of your fellow LEAVERS it is the prime motivation, why else would people like Plato post links to every negative article about an immigrant that appears in the Daily Mail?
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I agree, the Xenophobes just can't help themselves and in the end that will doom the LEAVE campaign in my opinion.
Another member of the Remain camp busy painting Leavers as racists.
You do realise that Europe and the EU are different things, and it's possible to dislike the latter whilst being perfectly happy with the former and its people?
I don't think Leavers are racist. But anyone who leaves on teh grounds of reducing immigration has got to be naive and politically ignorant.
From what I read, it is likely if we leave, we'll still have to have freedom of movement for EC citizens.
And given that a lot of UK immigrants are not EC residents, we can do something now. And kill the Commonwealth and upset China.. both major sources of UK immigrants..
No doubt Boris and Gove and others have thought that through.. not.
Leave are full of clever people who are leaving a major hostage to fortune. I doubt if Cameron will miss the opportunity to skewer them...
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
We elect a government to govern.
But are LEAVE going to be bold enough and honest enough to say that BREXIT will make no difference to immigration or are they just going to hope to slide by on a false prospectus?
I accept you are not bothered about immigration yourself but for many of your fellow LEAVERS it is the prime motivation, why else would people like Plato post links to every negative article about an immigrant that appears in the Daily Mail?
Only in your head perhaps.
LEAVERS motivations are fairly widesprerad from immigration to better economic prospects outside, to the EU wants a superstate and we don't.
I noticed @Richard_Nabavi was dismissing those who claimed the govt is hiding the real immigration figures as 'conspiracy theorists' among other insults, as well as muddling the debate with 'asylum seeker' distraction
It is not a conspiracy it is the truth. Pro EU, pro immigration Jonathan Portes has been denied the figures by the govt for various reasons including 'not wanting to damage the PMs renegotiation'
Who knew the immigration figures were guesses extrapolated from four airports???! Crazy
The NI numbers paint a different picture
Sorry, it wasn't four airports, my memory playing tricks... Even so I'm amazed that the immigration figures are conducted via airport survey, which has been proven to underestimate and, unlike NI figures, is opinion not fact
Oh - and IMHO he'll be gone in 2016 regardless of the result.
This EU thing does increasingly feel like Iraq doesn't?
Whilst the damage to the Conservatives probably won't be immediate (just as the damage Iraq did to Labour wasn't) I wouldn't be surprised if in the end it goes a long way to destroying the Tories for a very long time (just as Iraq has hung over and pretty well destroyed the Labour Party)
Cameron's name and legacy will be toxic within his Party which is a shame because like you say he has been quite good until he finally unleashed his EUphilia.
I'm still not convinced on Cameron being a massive Europhile, I still think it is Osborne driving this campaign behind the scenes.
It is interesting you should say this. A few months ago I spoke to a local Tory MP who was at that point undecided and who believed it was quite possible Cameron would opt to leave if things went against him at the renegotiation. As that MP has since announced that he "on balance" will be opting to remain maybe that was PR spiel but he seemed quite genuine at the time.
The fact that the Remain campaign has come out of the traps so strongly points to a lot of organisation and pre-planning which as you suggest may be down to Osborne.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
All's fair in love and war. And it doesn't have to be 75 million! If at the same rate as Bulgaria then we are talking 400,000 - close to the population of Greater Manchester.
I criticise the Remain side for lying, and I see no reason not to criticise the Leave side for the same offences.
Population Bulgaria 7.25 Million (Google) : number of Bulgarians in UK 65000 (ONS). Population Turkey 75 Million (Google) - same rate = 672000. Population Manchester 517000 (Google) - so yes (without affecting argument) a typo was made.
But even strong LEAVERS like MaxPB and Richard Tyndall have rubbished your notion that Turkey is about to join the EU. A scare story needs to have a scintilla of truth if people are going to fall for it.
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be thoroughly fed up with it. Life will continue. Attention will turn to other matters. If it's a Remain result, Cameron will stay on for a year or two and then there will be a leadership contest, which will be a leadership contest, not a re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
As actual party members (with some of us having 40 years doing the activist stuff) you know that Richard, as I know that as do the vast majority of us foot sluggers whichever way we will vote on June 23rd. But there's no hope of reality getting a hearing with the fervid state of pb at the moment.
As a non party member I can say that the Blues appear to be overrelying on "they have nowhere else to go". Not wise imo.
Well, Brookie, you went some time ago, dragging the clan with you (but did they furtively defy your clamorous interdictions in the secrecy of the voting booth?!).
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
We elect a government to govern.
Indeed. But the government may not be able to reliably govern on this matter if there are three sides in that government: the hardcore outers, the EEA group, and the remainers, who might well be the largest grouping due to the split in the Leavers (although many remainers may move to the EEA group if they see the country has voted for Leave).
Then there is the effect that such arguments will have on our continental neighbours with whom we will be negotiating. The more senior politicians and the media call them all sorts of names and accuse them of base motives, as we are already seeing, the harder it will be for the negotiations to be to our advantage.
In short, we need to be love-bombing the EU countries (and especially the Eurozone ones) if we vote Leave. "Sorry, we're leaving. Let's still be friends." Sadly, I think we'll end up doing the opposite.
Most of the Outers within the Tory party are EEA/EFTA types. Even UKIP's parliamentary party supports that approach (I believe)
I noticed @Richard_Nabavi was dismissing those who claimed the govt is hiding the real immigration figures as 'conspiracy theorists' among other insults, as well as muddling the debate with 'asylum seeker' distraction
It is not a conspiracy it is the truth. Pro EU, pro immigration Jonathan Portes has been denied the figures by the govt for various reasons including 'not wanting to damage the PMs renegotiation'
Who knew the immigration figures were guesses extrapolated from four airports???! Crazy
The NI numbers paint a different picture
Sorry, it wasn't four airports, my memory playing tricks... Even so I'm amazed that the immigration figures are conducted via airport survey, which has been proven to underestimate and, unlike NI figures, is opinion not fact
What we need to measure is 'active NI numbers', as there are plenty of people who either: - turned up, got an NI number, and have since left - turned up, got an NI number, left, came back, and got another NI number - plus there are - of course - quite a lot of people who have several NI numbers
As a non party member I can say that the Blues appear to be overrelying on "they have nowhere else to go". Not wise imo.
True.
If Tories don't want to vote for a post remain Tory party, they can vote for a further in Labour party, or In at all costs Lib Dems, the always in SNP, the Greens (in) or spoil their ballots...
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
We elect a government to govern.
Spot on. What UKIP says in this referendum is entirely irrelevant to the Brexit deal we get. The Leave Tories are the only ones who matter and the ones who really matter in that camp are those with a chance of being involved in the negotiations - that is, Gove and Boris. As Boris made plain yesterday, he thinks he can do business with a Germany that insists on free movement of people as part of any new package. He also intimated he was relaxed about a Swiss-style settlement.
The problem with all of the above, though, is that it is UKIP voters and right-wing Tories who will help to deliver a Leave win. If they do not get significant restrictions on free movement of people - and they won't - they are going to feel utterly betrayed.
I've not seen much polling on it, but my instinct is that most voters for whom immigration is the key driver of an out decision are already in UKIP, while more Tories are concerned about sovereignty, power, future federalism etc (as well as immigration to some extent)
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be thoroughly fed up with it. Life will continue. Attention will turn to other matters. If it's a Remain result, Cameron will stay on for a year or two and then there will be a leadership contest, which will be a leadership contest, not a re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
As actual party members (with some of us having 40 years doing the activist stuff) you know that Richard, as I know that as do the vast majority of us foot sluggers whichever way we will vote on June 23rd. But there's no hope of reality getting a hearing with the fervid state of pb at the moment.
As a non party member I can say that the Blues appear to be overrelying on "they have nowhere else to go". Not wise imo.
Well, Brookie, you went some time ago, dragging the clan with you (but did they furtively defy your clamorous interdictions in the secrecy of the voting booth?!).
Nah John clan is clan. Strike 5 votes from the Tories. :-)
However from my time on PB the disaffected righties appear to be growing in number and they always have the option to sit at home. As someone who used to regularly vote Conservative ( I even voted in the no hoper of 1997! ) I now increasingly see little to entice me back - even Corbyn doesn't really scare me if he gets in he gets in.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I agree, the Xenophobes just can't help themselves and in the end that will doom the LEAVE campaign in my opinion.
Whereas, as I have stated on here before, I consider those who believe in the EU model of free movement to be closet racists. Happy to have nice white Europeans come over to Britain as long as those nasty non whites, non Europeans are kept beyond the pale.
EU migration policy is inherently racist as it says an unskilled, unemployed European should have more right to come to the UK than a highly skilled, highly educated Asian or African
Migration Watch EU Council President Donald Tusk @eucopresident writes about the migration crisis ahead of today's EU-Turkey summit https://t.co/GQHRsWNLC6
As a non party member I can say that the Blues appear to be overrelying on "they have nowhere else to go". Not wise imo.
True.
If Tories don't want to vote for a post remain Tory party, they can vote for a further in Labour party, or In at all costs Lib Dems, the always in SNP, the Greens (in) or spoil their ballots...
Yeah you tell yourself that Scott, but the problem with people who have principles is they stick with them even when it hurts. If there's nothing worth voting for in the modern conservative party, then I aint going to vote for them, and didn't last time.
Oh - and IMHO he'll be gone in 2016 regardless of the result.
This EU thing does increasingly feel like Iraq doesn't?
Whilst the damage to the Conservatives probably won't be immediate (just as the damage Iraq did to Labour wasn't) I wouldn't be surprised if in the end it goes a long way to destroying the Tories for a very long time (just as Iraq has hung over and pretty well destroyed the Labour Party)
Cameron's name and legacy will be toxic within his Party which is a shame because like you say he has been quite good until he finally unleashed his EUphilia.
I'm still not convinced on Cameron being a massive Europhile, I still think it is Osborne driving this campaign behind the scenes.
It is interesting you should say this. A few months ago I spoke to a local Tory MP who was at that point undecided and who believed it was quite possible Cameron would opt to leave if things went against him at the renegotiation. As that MP has since announced that he "on balance" will be opting to remain maybe that was PR spiel but he seemed quite genuine at the time.
The fact that the Remain campaign has come out of the traps so strongly points to a lot of organisation and pre-planning which as you suggest may be down to Osborne.
Cameron certainly seems to have fooled a lot of Tories into thinking he was genuinely undecided. He was dissembling - there was never any chance that he would recommend a Leave vote.
Hopefully this post isn't deleted as my last one was. I'll probably be banned again after this... Thanks to the person that unbans me, de temps en temps
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
We elect a government to govern.
But are LEAVE going to be bold enough and honest enough to say that BREXIT will make no difference to immigration or are they just going to hope to slide by on a false prospectus?
I accept you are not bothered about immigration yourself but for many of your fellow LEAVERS it is the prime motivation, why else would people like Plato post links to every negative article about an immigrant that appears in the Daily Mail?
Leave allows the British government to make the decision. If people who want to restrict immigration can win a majority in the House of Commons they can implement that policy. It's the way that democracy works.
You might even say (to coin a phrase) 'vote leave, take control'
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
We elect a government to govern.
Indeed. But the government may not be able to reliably govern on this matter if there are three sides in that government: the hardcore outers, the EEA group, and the remainers, who might well be the largest grouping due to the split in the Leavers (although many remainers may move to the EEA group if they see the country has voted for Leave).
Then there is the effect that such arguments will have on our continental neighbours with whom we will be negotiating. The more senior politicians and the media call them all sorts of names and accuse them of base motives, as we are already seeing, the harder it will be for the negotiations to be to our advantage.
In short, we need to be love-bombing the EU countries (and especially the Eurozone ones) if we vote Leave. "Sorry, we're leaving. Let's still be friends." Sadly, I think we'll end up doing the opposite.
Most of the Outers within the Tory party are EEA/EFTA types. Even UKIP's parliamentary party supports that approach (I believe)
I think that smells right wrt the Tory party. Although isn't UKIP's parliamentary party just a single person?
In which case, the Leave campaigns should probably - if they are honest - come out with the EEA or EFTA position rather than the current kludge to keep everyone on board.
We need the arguments before the referendum, not after.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I agree, the Xenophobes just can't help themselves and in the end that will doom the LEAVE campaign in my opinion.
Whereas, as I have stated on here before, I consider those who believe in the EU model of free movement to be closet racists. Happy to have nice white Europeans come over to Britain as long as those nasty non whites, non Europeans are kept beyond the pale.
EU migration policy is inherently racist as it says an unskilled, unemployed European should have more right to come to the UK than a highly skilled, highly educated Asian or African
Honestly don't know - does the EU tell us how we must treat immigration from Asia and Africa?
Looks like the board of the British Chambers of Commerce were right to suspend John Longworth for breaching their agreed policy of neutrality over the forth coming EU referendum.
The guy was a loose cannon, now he’s a sour grape…!
If his employment contract required him not to express any views on EU membership, then of course. If not, not.
I doubt there is any mention of the EU referendum in Longworth’s employment contract.
The BCC’s neutral stance over the EU appears to have been an agreed policy decision by the board and it was the board who suspended Longworth for breaking that agreement. The irony is that I'm sure there are those on the Leave side who would be calling for Longworth’s immediate sacking if he’d abused the BCC board’s neutrality ruling, in favour of staying in.
The Brexit martyr - the passion of the very cross.
The gusto and hard ball tactics employed by Cameron seem pretty clear to me. And that's before tilting the procedural scales rather too much in his favour.
Remainers can hand wave us away, however it's a mistake. Leave is a substantial % of the Tory Party and their voters. Treating us as stupid does them no credit. And it's totally unnecessary.
Oh - and IMHO he'll be gone in 2016 regardless of the result.
This EU thing does increasingly feel like Iraq doesn't?
Whilst the damage to the Conservatives probably won't be immediate (just as the damage Iraq did to Labour wasn't) I wouldn't be surprised if in the end it goes a long way to destroying the Tories for a very long time (just as Iraq has hung over and pretty well destroyed the Labour Party)
Cameron's name and legacy will be toxic within his Party which is a shame because like you say he has been quite good until he finally unleashed his EUphilia.
I'm still not convinced on Cameron being a massive Europhile, I still think it is Osborne driving this campaign behind the scenes.
One thing's for certain, there's no way I'd ever vote for an Osborne-led Tory Party.
I'd even vote for Corbyn over Toxic Osborne (at least Jezza would shake things up and we'd have no end of fun for his "chaotic" term as PM)
At least Corbyn would be tough with these tax-avoiding Yankie multinationals.
Under Cameron and Osborne, things have got so ridiculous that a multi-billion dollar company like Facebook is now voluntarily offering to pay more tax, because presumably even they are ashamed (and realize that their current arrangements are a PR disaster) of the amount of tax they was paying before.
Meanwhile British small business owners, British citizens, who have worked here and paid their taxes fairly all their lives, are chased to their graves by HMRC. It's outrageous and if nothing else, Corbyn would do some good here, I think.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I agree, the Xenophobes just can't help themselves and in the end that will doom the LEAVE campaign in my opinion.
Another member of the Remain camp busy painting Leavers as racists.
You do realise that Europe and the EU are different things, and it's possible to dislike the latter whilst being perfectly happy with the former and its people?
Xenophobia is the fear of things foreign or strange - how does that translate to me "painting Leavers as racists" exactly? The fact that you don't understand the difference is hardly my fault.
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
We elect a government to govern.
Spot on. What UKIP says in this referendum is entirely irrelevant to the Brexit deal we get. The Leave Tories are the only ones who matter and the ones who really matter in that camp are those with a chance of being involved in the negotiations - that is, Gove and Boris. As Boris made plain yesterday, he thinks he can do business with a Germany that insists on free movement of people as part of any new package. He also intimated he was relaxed about a Swiss-style settlement.
The problem with all of the above, though, is that it is UKIP voters and right-wing Tories who will help to deliver a Leave win. If they do not get significant restrictions on free movement of people - and they won't - they are going to feel utterly betrayed.
I've not seen much polling on it, but my instinct is that most voters for whom immigration is the key driver of an out decision are already in UKIP, while more Tories are concerned about sovereignty, power, future federalism etc (as well as immigration to some extent)
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I agree, the Xenophobes just can't help themselves and in the end that will doom the LEAVE campaign in my opinion.
Another member of the Remain camp busy painting Leavers as racists.
You do realise that Europe and the EU are different things, and it's possible to dislike the latter whilst being perfectly happy with the former and its people?
Xenophobia is the fear of things foreign or strange - how does that translate to me "painting Leavers as racists" exactly? The fact that you don't understand the difference is hardly my fault.
noun: xenophobia - dislike of or prejudice against people from other countries.
Most of the Outers within the Tory party are EEA/EFTA types. Even UKIP's parliamentary party supports that approach (I believe)
I think that smells right wrt the Tory party. Although isn't UKIP's parliamentary party just a single person?
In which case, the Leave campaigns should probably - if they are honest - come out with the EEA or EFTA position rather than the current kludge to keep everyone on board.
We need the arguments before the referendum, not after.
Why?
People can vote leave for whatever reason they want.
It'd be interesting if Guido extended his spreadsheet of Conservative MPs for Remain/Leave to show the sort of Leavers: i.e. those who want EEA/EFTA, or those who want fully out. Many probably wouldn't commit, but many would, and it would indicate the parliamentary mood music a little more.
Anyway, my head's just exploded (yes, it's messy), so I'm off for a while. Have fun!
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I agree, the Xenophobes just can't help themselves and in the end that will doom the LEAVE campaign in my opinion.
Another member of the Remain camp busy painting Leavers as racists.
You do realise that Europe and the EU are different things, and it's possible to dislike the latter whilst being perfectly happy with the former and its people?
Xenophobia is the fear of things foreign or strange - how does that translate to me "painting Leavers as racists" exactly? The fact that you don't understand the difference is hardly my fault.
I am quite pleased that John Longworth has resigned from the BCC and can provide his views on what the UK will look like post Brexit. I am undecided 60/40 for remain as I confirmed to Plato yesterday but once this nonsense from both sides of silly conspiracy theories is dismissed we may be able to see a picture beyond membership of the EU. However for this to happen leave must coalesce around one vision and if it is to be a Norway/EEA/EFTA agreement there needs to be open honest acceptance that there will be some contributions to the EU and free movement of labour will be a pre-requisite, but the benefit would be that we would regain considerable sovereignty from the EU. I believe some, maybe many posters, on here are happy with this proposition, as I would be, and I would vote to leave in these circumstances. However I believe the elephant in the room is immigration and migration (unrelated as far as I am concerned) and the problem leave would have is that British voter’s main reason for wanting out is to control our own borders. If this is not possible under leave’s vision I believe many would vote for the status quo and remain due to the inability to overcome free movement of labour. Wolfgang Schauble, the German Finance Minister, was dismissed by the ‘outers’ yesterday when he confirmed that after exit a trade deal would be done with UK on the basis of some payment and free movement would be required. I believe that John Longworth could be pivotal to this debate if he endorsed Wolfgang Schauble’s comments and the debate would have much more clarity on what leave would look like. If leave continue to prevaricate amongst themselves and Boris puts up further ‘car crash’ interviews as he did yesterday on Marr I do not believe leave will win
A sizeable number of the UK's major charities now are effectively the third sector branch of the Labour Party.
Yes it's worth taking a close look at the people at the top of these organisations
Your posts are becoming ever more bizarre. I like them. It reminds me of reading 'Perfume'
One of the best books I've read Roger. Really enjoyed it.
Me too. I read that and 'Bonfire of the Vanities' consecutively and they're still two of the most enjoyable reads I can remember
BoV was also excellent. Have you read the Tin Drum ?
The Tin Drum is outstanding. The Flounder is more disjointed but it's best bits are better than the best bits of the Tin Drum.
I enjoy a lot of Grass books, sad to see him pass away last year.
Its been a bad couple of years for authors who I consider to be modern classical writers in the making (Those who will be read as classics in a century or more). Gabriel Garcia Marquez, Umberto Eco and Gunter Grass are all writers I would put in that catagory.
Most of the Outers within the Tory party are EEA/EFTA types. Even UKIP's parliamentary party supports that approach (I believe)
I think that smells right wrt the Tory party. Although isn't UKIP's parliamentary party just a single person?
In which case, the Leave campaigns should probably - if they are honest - come out with the EEA or EFTA position rather than the current kludge to keep everyone on board.
We need the arguments before the referendum, not after.
Why?
People can vote leave for whatever reason they want.
Because they're not voting for the same 'leave'. To many people, the EEA/EFTA solution would not be leave as it would still restrict us in many key areas. Likewise, for others (I think such as yourself), the EEA/EFTA approach is preferable.
As things stand, a 'Leave' vote will not tell us what the British public truly want. They want change, but what sort?
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be thoroughly fed up with it. Life will continue. Attention will turn to other matters. If it's a Remain result, Cameron will stay on for a year or two and then there will be a leadership contest, which will be a leadership contest, not a re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
As actual party members (with some of us having 40 years doing the activist stuff) you know that Richard, as I know that as do the vast majority of us foot sluggers whichever way we will vote on June 23rd. But there's no hope of reality getting a hearing with the fervid state of pb at the moment.
I think the left's hopes for the party to split on this are going to be in vain. Remain or Leave, I don't see any appetite to remove the PM. There is a lot of ill-feeling towards Osborne and I think is out of the running should he make the final two, but the debate we had this weekend after canvassing for Zac was pretty mild, we had a prominent London MP there as well who took part. The room was split 50:50 and on who should be PM after the vote Dave was way, way out in front.
A sizeable number of the UK's major charities now are effectively the third sector branch of the Labour Party.
Yes it's worth taking a close look at the people at the top of these organisations
Your posts are becoming ever more bizarre. I like them. It reminds me of reading 'Perfume'
One of the best books I've read Roger. Really enjoyed it.
Me too. I read that and 'Bonfire of the Vanities' consecutively and they're still two of the most enjoyable reads I can remember
BoV was also excellent. Have you read the Tin Drum ?
The Tin Drum is outstanding. The Flounder is more disjointed but it's best bits are better than the best bits of the Tin Drum.
I enjoy a lot of Grass books, sad to see him pass away last year.
Its been a bad couple of years for authors who I consider to be modern classical writers in the making (Those who will be read as classics in a century or more). Gabriel Garcia Marquez, Umberto Eco and Gunter Grass are all writers I would put in that catagory.
I would add Richard Nabavi to that list some of the best modern ficition I have read has been on PB :-)
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
We elect a government to govern.
Indeed. But the government may not be able to reliably govern on this matter if there are three sides in that government: the hardcore outers, the EEA group, and the remainers, who might well be the largest grouping due to the split in the Leavers (although many remainers may move to the EEA group if they see the country has voted for Leave).
Then there is the effect that such arguments will have on our continental neighbours with whom we will be negotiating. The more senior politicians and the media call them all sorts of names and accuse them of base motives, as we are already seeing, the harder it will be for the negotiations to be to our advantage.
In short, we need to be love-bombing the EU countries (and especially the Eurozone ones) if we vote Leave. "Sorry, we're leaving. Let's still be friends." Sadly, I think we'll end up doing the opposite.
Most of the Outers within the Tory party are EEA/EFTA types. Even UKIP's parliamentary party supports that approach (I believe)
I think that smells right wrt the Tory party. Although isn't UKIP's parliamentary party just a single person?
In which case, the Leave campaigns should probably - if they are honest - come out with the EEA or EFTA position rather than the current kludge to keep everyone on board.
We need the arguments before the referendum, not after.
Whatever one's views, one simply has to sit back and admire the sheer quality of this morning's thread from Mr. Meeks. I felt as though I'd read a leader from The Times ... and a good one at that. We are indeed fortunate to have the benefit of his intellect and writing skills on PB.com.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I agree, the Xenophobes just can't help themselves and in the end that will doom the LEAVE campaign in my opinion.
Another member of the Remain camp busy painting Leavers as racists.
You do realise that Europe and the EU are different things, and it's possible to dislike the latter whilst being perfectly happy with the former and its people?
Xenophobia is the fear of things foreign or strange - how does that translate to me "painting Leavers as racists" exactly? The fact that you don't understand the difference is hardly my fault.
I would lay odds that many of the Leavers on here have known and embraced more foreign or strange things in their time than you have. Some of us have had the courses of antibiotics to prove it :-)
More seriously, you are still equating anti-EU with anti-Europe. They are in no way the same thing.
Whatever one's views, one simply has to sit back and admire the sheer quality of this morning's thread from Mr. Meeks. I felt as though I'd read a leader from The Times ... and a good one at that. We are indeed fortunate to have the benefit of his intellect and writing skills on PB.com.
The writing is indeed great... Just a shame it's such nonsense.
Most of the Outers within the Tory party are EEA/EFTA types. Even UKIP's parliamentary party supports that approach (I believe)
I think that smells right wrt the Tory party. Although isn't UKIP's parliamentary party just a single person?
In which case, the Leave campaigns should probably - if they are honest - come out with the EEA or EFTA position rather than the current kludge to keep everyone on board.
We need the arguments before the referendum, not after.
Why?
People can vote leave for whatever reason they want.
Because they're not voting for the same 'leave'. To many people, the EEA/EFTA solution would not be leave as it would still restrict us in many key areas. Likewise, for others (I think such as yourself), the EEA/EFTA approach is preferable.
As things stand, a 'Leave' vote will not tell us what the British public truly want. They want change, but what sort?
They are voting to leave the EU.
After that, while I have my preference, I'd be happy with whatever Parliament decides.
It'd be interesting if Guido extended his spreadsheet of Conservative MPs for Remain/Leave to show the sort of Leavers: i.e. those who want EEA/EFTA, or those who want fully out. Many probably wouldn't commit, but many would, and it would indicate the parliamentary mood music a little more.
Anyway, my head's just exploded (yes, it's messy), so I'm off for a while. Have fun!
Hope things improve for you JJ. Looking forward to having you back on top form as even when you are below par you are a tough opponent :-)
How any politician could be labelled 'lazy' is beyond me...
Must be one of the most life-consuming professions in the world. I'd never do it.
People recently have seemed quite happy to apply it to Boris.
Boris who lazily edited the Spectator, contributed to the Daily Telegraph, undertook a shadow ministerial job and wrote a book about the Roman Empire... all at the same time.
Fecking hell like, I start kicking off when I have more than ten unanswered emails building up in my inbox !
Most of the Outers within the Tory party are EEA/EFTA types. Even UKIP's parliamentary party supports that approach (I believe)
I think that smells right wrt the Tory party. Although isn't UKIP's parliamentary party just a single person?
In which case, the Leave campaigns should probably - if they are honest - come out with the EEA or EFTA position rather than the current kludge to keep everyone on board.
We need the arguments before the referendum, not after.
Why?
People can vote leave for whatever reason they want.
Because they're not voting for the same 'leave'. To many people, the EEA/EFTA solution would not be leave as it would still restrict us in many key areas. Likewise, for others (I think such as yourself), the EEA/EFTA approach is preferable.
As things stand, a 'Leave' vote will not tell us what the British public truly want. They want change, but what sort?
They are voting to leave the EU.
After that, while I have my preference, I'd be happy with whatever Parliament decides.
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be thoroughly fed up with it. Life will continue. Attention will turn to other matters. If it's a Remain result, Cameron will stay on for a year or two and then there will be a leadership contest, which will be a leadership contest, not a re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
As actual party members (with some of us having 40 years doing the activist stuff) you know that Richard, as I know that as do the vast majority of us foot sluggers whichever way we will vote on June 23rd. But there's no hope of reality getting a hearing with the fervid state of pb at the moment.
As a non party member I can say that the Blues appear to be overrelying on "they have nowhere else to go". Not wise imo.
Well, Brookie, you went some time ago, dragging the clan with you (but did they furtively defy your clamorous interdictions in the secrecy of the voting booth?!).
Nah John clan is clan. Strike 5 votes from the Tories. :-)
However from my time on PB the disaffected righties appear to be growing in number and they always have the option to sit at home. As someone who used to regularly vote Conservative ( I even voted in the no hoper of 1997! ) I now increasingly see little to entice me back - even Corbyn doesn't really scare me if he gets in he gets in.
Must explain why we gained a majority last May. Furrows brow...
Most of the Outers within the Tory party are EEA/EFTA types. Even UKIP's parliamentary party supports that approach (I believe)
I think that smells right wrt the Tory party. Although isn't UKIP's parliamentary party just a single person?
In which case, the Leave campaigns should probably - if they are honest - come out with the EEA or EFTA position rather than the current kludge to keep everyone on board.
We need the arguments before the referendum, not after.
Why?
People can vote leave for whatever reason they want.
And what do they get after that. Thank you for confirming for me that the arguments by leave will only just begin if they are 'successful'.
How any politician could be labelled 'lazy' is beyond me...
Must be one of the most life-consuming professions in the world. I'd never do it.
I cannot understand how anyone can say any politician is lazy. It is a time consuming and at times thankless task and many politicians put in many more hours than most. As far as David Cameron is concerned he has put enormous effort into the EU negotiations and anyone is entitles to criticize him for his negotiations but to say he is lazy is unfair. I am sure his family wish they could have a lot more time with him and it is fairly obvious that is why he announced he would not be seeking a third term
The gusto and hard ball tactics employed by Cameron seem pretty clear to me. And that's before tilting the procedural scales rather too much in his favour.
Remainers can hand wave us away, however it's a mistake. Leave is a substantial % of the Tory Party and their voters. Treating us as stupid does them no credit. And it's totally unnecessary.
Oh - and IMHO he'll be gone in 2016 regardless of the result.
This EU thing does increasingly feel like Iraq doesn't?
Whilst the damage to the Conservatives probably won't be immediate (just as the damage Iraq did to Labour wasn't) I wouldn't be surprised if in the end it goes a long way to destroying the Tories for a very long time (just as Iraq has hung over and pretty well destroyed the Labour Party)
Cameron's name and legacy will be toxic within his Party which is a shame because like you say he has been quite good until he finally unleashed his EUphilia.
I'm still not convinced on Cameron being a massive Europhile, I still think it is Osborne driving this campaign behind the scenes.
One thing's for certain, there's no way I'd ever vote for an Osborne-led Tory Party.
I'd even vote for Corbyn over Toxic Osborne (at least Jezza would shake things up and we'd have no end of fun for his "chaotic" term as PM)
At least Corbyn would be tough with these tax-avoiding Yankie multinationals.
Under Cameron and Osborne, things have got so ridiculous that a multi-billion dollar company like Facebook is now voluntarily offering to pay more tax, because presumably even they are ashamed (and realize that their current arrangements are a PR disaster) of the amount of tax they was paying before.
Meanwhile British small business owners, British citizens, who have worked here and paid their taxes fairly all their lives, are chased to their graves by HMRC. It's outrageous and if nothing else, Corbyn would do some good here, I think.
The French are going after Google for Euro 1.6 billion. Osborne settled for a “disproportionately small” £130 million. Pathetic isn't it?
Whatever one's views, one simply has to sit back and admire the sheer quality of this morning's thread from Mr. Meeks. I felt as though I'd read a leader from The Times ... and a good one at that. We are indeed fortunate to have the benefit of his intellect and writing skills on PB.com.
The writing is indeed great... Just a shame it's such nonsense.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I agree, the Xenophobes just can't help themselves and in the end that will doom the LEAVE campaign in my opinion.
Another member of the Remain camp busy painting Leavers as racists.
You do realise that Europe and the EU are different things, and it's possible to dislike the latter whilst being perfectly happy with the former and its people?
Xenophobia is the fear of things foreign or strange - how does that translate to me "painting Leavers as racists" exactly? The fact that you don't understand the difference is hardly my fault.
I would lay odds that many of the Leavers on here have known and embraced more foreign or strange things in their time than you have. Some of us have had the courses of antibiotics to prove it :-)
More seriously, you are still equating anti-EU with anti-Europe. They are in no way the same thing.
It would surprise me if more than half of the Remain camp could find Romania on the map. They seem to think Europe is nothing more than Tuscany and the Côte d'Azur.
How any politician could be labelled 'lazy' is beyond me...
Must be one of the most life-consuming professions in the world. I'd never do it.
Yeah, me too.. I certainly think politicians are underpaid and probably overworked. I don't have great sympathy because they choose to do it and it comes with its privileges (it must be very rewarding to do it - and Westminster Palace is a pretty extraordinary place to go do your work). But as Alan Clark demonstrated beautifully in his Diaries, even the life of a junior minister is mind-bogglingly stressful. Not to say mind-bending...
I am a) too thick to do it, b) not organised enough to do it and c) too unwilling to sacrifice my time to do it. There is a d) reason too, in that Scotland Yard would probably prevent me from doing it
But all in all, the politician's lot is a tough one and a thankless one..
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
All's fair in love and war. And it doesn't have to be 75 million! If at the same rate as Bulgaria then we are talking 400,000 - close to the population of Greater Manchester.
I criticise the Remain side for lying, and I see no reason not to criticise the Leave side for the same offences.
Population Bulgaria 7.25 Million (Google) : number of Bulgarians in UK 65000 (ONS). Population Turkey 75 Million (Google) - same rate = 672000. Population Manchester 517000 (Google) - so yes (without affecting argument) a typo was made.
But even strong LEAVERS like MaxPB and Richard Tyndall have rubbished your notion that Turkey is about to join the EU. A scare story needs to have a scintilla of truth if people are going to fall for it.
I didn't say that Turkey would join the EU - I gave figures on what might happen if they did.
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
As actual party members (with some of us having 40 ystate of pb at the moment.
As a non party member I can say that the Blues appear to be overrelying on "they have nowhere else to go". Not wise imo.
Well, Brookie, you went some time ago, dragging the clan with you (but did they furtively defy your clamorous interdictions in the secrecy of the voting booth?!).
Nah John clan is clan. Strike 5 votes from the Tories. :-)
However from my time on PB the disaffected righties appear to be growing in number and they always have the option to sit at home. As someone who used to regularly vote Conservative ( I even voted in the no hoper of 1997! ) I now increasingly see little to entice me back - even Corbyn doesn't really scare me if he gets in he gets in.
Must explain why we gained a majority last May. Furrows brow...
you grabbed all the LDs.
you are condemned to granola and sandals for the rest of your political life whilst watching the rest of us eat beef wellington
The gusto and hard ball tactics employed by Cameron seem pretty clear to me. And that's before tilting the procedural scales rather too much in his favour.
Remainers can hand wave us away, however it's a mistake. Leave is a substantial % of the Tory Party and their voters. Treating us as stupid does them no credit. And it's totally unnecessary.
Oh - and IMHO he'll be gone in 2016 regardless of the result.
been quite good until he finally unleashed his EUphilia.
I'm still not convinced on Cameron being a massive Europhile, I still think it is Osborne driving this campaign behind the scenes.
One thing's for certain, there's no way I'd ever vote for an Osborne-led Tory Party.
I'd even vote for Corbyn over Toxic Osborne (at least Jezza would shake things up and we'd have no end of fun for his "chaotic" term as PM)
At least Corbyn would be tough with these tax-avoiding Yankie multinationals.
Under Cameron and Osborne, things have got so ridiculous that a multi-billion dollar company like Facebook is now voluntarily offering to pay more tax, because presumably even they are ashamed (and realize that their current arrangements are a PR disaster) of the amount of tax they was paying before.
Meanwhile British small business owners, British citizens, who have worked here and paid their taxes fairly all their lives, are chased to their graves by HMRC. It's outrageous and if nothing else, Corbyn would do some good here, I think.
The French are going after Google for Euro 1.6 billion. Osborne settled for a “disproportionately small” £130 million. Pathetic isn't it?
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
As actual party members (with some of us having 40 ystate of pb at the moment.
As a non party member I can say that the Blues appear to be overrelying on "they have nowhere else to go". Not wise imo.
Well, Brookie, you went some time ago, dragging the clan with you (but did they furtively defy your clamorous interdictions in the secrecy of the voting booth?!).
Nah John clan is clan. Strike 5 votes from the Tories. :-)
However from my time on PB the disaffected righties appear to be growing in number and they always have the option to sit at home. As someone who used to regularly vote Conservative ( I even voted in the no hoper of 1997! ) I now increasingly see little to entice me back - even Corbyn doesn't really scare me if he gets in he gets in.
Must explain why we gained a majority last May. Furrows brow...
you grabbed all the LDs.
you are condemned to granola and sandals for the rest of your political life whilst watching the rest of us eat beef wellington
I do fancy Qorn every now and then. Does that count?
A hospital consultant has been suspended after revealing that a Muslim surgeon walked out of an operation rather than remove her headscarf.
Dr Vladislav Rogozov, 46, a consultant anaesthetist, was suspended by Sheffield's Royal Hallamshire Hospital after telling a website how he confronted the unnamed surgeon as they scrubbed up, according to The Sun.
He said she refused to remove it, forcing the hospital to find a stand-in. She later left the hospital after an investigation backed Dr Rogozov for enforcing the strict dress code.
A hospital consultant has been suspended after revealing that a Muslim surgeon walked out of an operation rather than remove her headscarf.
Dr Vladislav Rogozov, 46, a consultant anaesthetist, was suspended by Sheffield's Royal Hallamshire Hospital after telling a website how he confronted the unnamed surgeon as they scrubbed up, according to The Sun.
He said she refused to remove it, forcing the hospital to find a stand-in. She later left the hospital after an investigation backed Dr Rogozov for enforcing the strict dress code.
So why has he been suspended, if the investigation backed Dr Rogozov? Or is there more to it?
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
As actual party members (with some of us having 40 ystate of pb at the moment.
As a non party member I can say that the Blues appear to be overrelying on "they have nowhere else to go". Not wise imo.
Well, Brookie, you went some time ago, dragging the clan with you (but did they furtively defy your clamorous interdictions in the secrecy of the voting booth?!).
Nah John clan is clan. Strike 5 votes from the Tories. :-)
However from my time on PB the disaffected righties appear to be growing in number and they always have the option to sit at home. As someone who used to regularly vote Conservative ( I even voted in the no hoper of 1997! ) I now increasingly see little to entice me back - even Corbyn doesn't really scare me if he gets in he gets in.
Must explain why we gained a majority last May. Furrows brow...
you grabbed all the LDs.
you are condemned to granola and sandals for the rest of your political life whilst watching the rest of us eat beef wellington
I do fancy Qorn every now and then. Does that count?
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
As actual party members (with some of us having 40 ystate of pb at the moment.
As a non party member I can say that the Blues appear to be overrelying on "they have nowhere else to go". Not wise imo.
Well, Brookie, you went some time ago, dragging the clan with you (but did they furtively defy your clamorous interdictions in the secrecy of the voting booth?!).
Nah John clan is clan. Strike 5 votes from the Tories. :-)
However from my time on PB the disaffected righties appear to be growing in number and they always have the option to sit at home. As someone who used to regularly vote Conservative ( I even voted in the no hoper of 1997! ) I now increasingly see little to entice me back - even Corbyn doesn't really scare me if he gets in he gets in.
Must explain why we gained a majority last May. Furrows brow...
you grabbed all the LDs.
you are condemned to granola and sandals for the rest of your political life whilst watching the rest of us eat beef wellington
So you'll get Mad Cow disease whilst the rest us of blue meanies have unlimited power ?
The idea that Conservative Party members will be 'angry and alienated' after the referendum is lazy and unsupported by evidence. Of course passions will run high during the campaign, but once the referendum has happened the decision will have been made - and, crucially, not by David Cameron or the government, but by the British people. Indeed, the very fact that the party is so evenly divided on the issue offers some protection; all party members will have friends on both sides of the issue, and all of us respect MPs on both sides. What will be the point of quarrelling and recriminations over a decision which has been settled, for a generation, in a referendum?
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
As actual party members (with some of us having 40 ystate of pb at the moment.
As a non party member I can say that the Blues appear to be overrelying on "they have nowhere else to go". Not wise imo.
Well, Brookie, you went some time ago, dragging the clan with you (but did they furtively defy your clamorous interdictions in the secrecy of the voting booth?!).
Nah John clan is clan. Strike 5 votes from the Tories. :-)
However from my time on PB the disaffected righties appear to be growing in number and they always have the option to sit at home. As someone who used to regularly vote Conservative ( I even voted in the no hoper of 1997! ) I now increasingly see little to entice me back - even Corbyn doesn't really scare me if he gets in he gets in.
Must explain why we gained a majority last May. Furrows brow...
you grabbed all the LDs.
you are condemned to granola and sandals for the rest of your political life whilst watching the rest of us eat beef wellington
So you'll get Mad Cow disease whilst the rest us of blue meanies have unlimited power ?
Lets see how much the French get in the end. 1.6bn is there opening "offer", just like in a damages trial, you don't exactly start with anywhere near the amount you actually will accept. Also, French corporate tax rate is significantly higher than here. I am sure they will get more than the UK though.
Most of the Outers within the Tory party are EEA/EFTA types. Even UKIP's parliamentary party supports that approach (I believe)
I think that smells right wrt the Tory party. Although isn't UKIP's parliamentary party just a single person?
In which case, the Leave campaigns should probably - if they are honest - come out with the EEA or EFTA position rather than the current kludge to keep everyone on board.
We need the arguments before the referendum, not after.
Why?
People can vote leave for whatever reason they want.
And what do they get after that. Thank you for confirming for me that the arguments by leave will only just begin if they are 'successful'.
"The authority of the Prime Minister repeatedly warning of the dangers of leaving the EU is going to weigh heavily on uncommitted voters’ judgements."
Well, it will weigh on some of their judgements. But two other influences are worthy of note.
One, the media. I don't foresee the Torygraph doing a Scotsman and backing the status quo at the last minute. That's slightly more possible for the Daily Mail, because scaring small-c conservatives (whatever party they vote for) is their thing. But so is xenophobia, so it's unlikely.
Two - and I can envisage pollsters and pundits getting this wrong and wagging their heads about it after the event - the shy Leavers. People who don't want to tell some twentysomething with a clipboard who stops in the high street, rings them up, or asks them online, that finally, finally, they've got a chance to do something about Johnny Foreigner after so many decades of being forced to watch black people (or is it Muslims? or chavs?) take over their country, and that they're damned if they'll be ushered like sheep into voting Remain.
The concept of "undecided voter", while convenient for pollsters and post-poll chatterers, is largely sewage.
Leave holds the flame. There's enormous passion even if their leaders are crap. It's their side that are going to do best at getting their vote out. Their constituency have been wallowing in fear for decades. Since the Poles (or is it the Pakistanis?) took over all the shops.
I don't see Flashman being able to detach their fear and conservatism from the xenophobia they've loved feeling for so long, and that they've loved thinking they've been stopped from expressing, so as to build up in their minds a passionate commitment to Remain that peaks on 23 June.
Christ almighty what have the Telegraph done to their front page online!!!!
TBH, I am not very impressed by any of the major media website. Nobody seems to have got a good layout that is easy that looks appealing, tidy and easy to navigate. Not BBC, Sky is worse, etc etc etc. I feel like there is space for a design "leap", like the way the Netflix UI changed the way people think about listing tv / movies.
Comments
He should watch this
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0725m33/daily-politics-26022016
It is not a conspiracy it is the truth. Pro EU, pro immigration Jonathan Portes has been denied the figures by the govt for various reasons including 'not wanting to damage the PMs renegotiation'
Who knew the immigration figures were guesses extrapolated from four airports???! Crazy
The NI numbers paint a different picture
As I wrote right at the end of a the last but one thread, we need to guard against the cognitive bias known as the 'Availability heuristic', which is geek-speak for giving too much weight to whatever has been getting a lot of attention recently. When the referendum is over, and assuming a Remain result, we'll all be thoroughly fed up with it. Life will continue. Attention will turn to other matters. If it's a Remain result, Cameron will stay on for a year or two and then there will be a leadership contest, which will be a leadership contest, not a re-run of the referendum.
If it's a Leave result, the dynamic will of course be different, because there will be a major battle between the EEA-style faction and the 'Control of our borders' faction. That's much more unpredictable.
You do realise that Europe and the EU are different things, and it's possible to dislike the latter whilst being perfectly happy with the former and its people?
I'd even vote for Corbyn over Toxic Osborne (at least Jezza would shake things up and we'd have no end of fun for his "chaotic" term as PM)
The Wildlife Trusts have been very vocal about this and about where the blame lies and yet suddenly they are in favour of staying in even though they have made no representations to memberships about this at all.
When the migrant crisis continues to go from bad to worse.
When the EU sees our YES vote as the green light from the UK to go "further and faster" on the road to "integration" and, if there's a new recession within the next couple of years, when the Euro finally implodes and takes us off the cliff with it.
Sure, Cameron will get his REMAIN vote, just as Tony defeated Saddam. Cameron will bask in the glory of his "victory" just as Tony did. And then...
It'll all go to hell and years after Cameron has departed the stage, the Tories will still be living with his toxic legacy.
Cameron/REMAIN are making a LOT of claims about how staying in the EU will lead us to the land of motherhood and apple pie. Guess who get's the blame when, within a year or two, the British people realize they've been sold a pup?
(Both made into terrible films)
So would he resign voluntarily? Yes, but he'd try to line things up for Osborne first? I don't think he's going in 2016 if he wins.
The gusto and hard ball tactics employed by Cameron seem pretty clear to me. And that's before tilting the procedural scales rather too much in his favour.
Remainers can hand wave us away, however it's a mistake. Leave is a substantial % of the Tory Party and their voters. Treating us as stupid does them no credit. And it's totally unnecessary.
I accept you are not bothered about immigration yourself but for many of your fellow LEAVERS it is the prime motivation, why else would people like Plato post links to every negative article about an immigrant that appears in the Daily Mail?
But anyone who leaves on teh grounds of reducing immigration has got to be naive and politically ignorant.
From what I read, it is likely if we leave, we'll still have to have freedom of movement for EC citizens.
And given that a lot of UK immigrants are not EC residents, we can do something now. And kill the Commonwealth and upset China.. both major sources of UK immigrants..
No doubt Boris and Gove and others have thought that through.. not.
Leave are full of clever people who are leaving a major hostage to fortune. I doubt if Cameron will miss the opportunity to skewer them...
LEAVERS motivations are fairly widesprerad from immigration to better economic prospects outside, to the EU wants a superstate and we don't.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/apr/10/ons-net-immigration-underestimated
Golly, family ties or do you enjoy drinking, lakes and guns?
The fact that the Remain campaign has come out of the traps so strongly points to a lot of organisation and pre-planning which as you suggest may be down to Osborne.
Evening Standard
Sadiq Khan aide posed with guns and claimed he could be a 'hitman' https://t.co/gbYR1kp8ct https://t.co/liaCr2WK6V
But yes, it was poorly worded...
- turned up, got an NI number, and have since left
- turned up, got an NI number, left, came back, and got another NI number
- plus there are - of course - quite a lot of people who have several NI numbers
Would have really helped them out to be able to hone their act in Germany early doors
If Tories don't want to vote for a post remain Tory party, they can vote for a further in Labour party, or In at all costs Lib Dems, the always in SNP, the Greens (in) or spoil their ballots...
(Real question, I don't know the answer.)
However from my time on PB the disaffected righties appear to be growing in number and they always have the option to sit at home. As someone who used to regularly vote Conservative ( I even voted in the no hoper of 1997! ) I now increasingly see little to entice me back - even Corbyn doesn't really scare me if he gets in he gets in.
EU migration policy is inherently racist as it says an unskilled, unemployed European should have more right to come to the UK than a highly skilled, highly educated Asian or African
EU Council President Donald Tusk @eucopresident writes about the migration crisis ahead of today's EU-Turkey summit https://t.co/GQHRsWNLC6
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/03/04-tusk-invitation-letter-informal-euco-turkey/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Beatles_in_Hamburg
You might even say (to coin a phrase) 'vote leave, take control'
In which case, the Leave campaigns should probably - if they are honest - come out with the EEA or EFTA position rather than the current kludge to keep everyone on board.
We need the arguments before the referendum, not after.
Under Cameron and Osborne, things have got so ridiculous that a multi-billion dollar company like Facebook is now voluntarily offering to pay more tax, because presumably even they are ashamed (and realize that their current arrangements are a PR disaster) of the amount of tax they was paying before.
Meanwhile British small business owners, British citizens, who have worked here and paid their taxes fairly all their lives, are chased to their graves by HMRC. It's outrageous and if nothing else, Corbyn would do some good here, I think.
BIden + Sanders + Clinton is 69.69% in the next POTUS market.
People can vote leave for whatever reason they want.
Anyway, my head's just exploded (yes, it's messy), so I'm off for a while. Have fun!
As things stand, a 'Leave' vote will not tell us what the British public truly want. They want change, but what sort?
Must be one of the most life-consuming professions in the world. I'd never do it.
*ducks*
Anyone remotely familiar with red boxes and taking the day job home knows better.
I felt as though I'd read a leader from The Times ... and a good one at that.
We are indeed fortunate to have the benefit of his intellect and writing skills on PB.com.
More seriously, you are still equating anti-EU with anti-Europe. They are in no way the same thing.
After that, while I have my preference, I'd be happy with whatever Parliament decides.
Fecking hell like, I start kicking off when I have more than ten unanswered emails building up in my inbox
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/24/france-google-tax-avoidance-back-taxes
Only Don Brind has managed that honour.
I am a) too thick to do it, b) not organised enough to do it and c) too unwilling to sacrifice my time to do it. There is a d) reason too, in that Scotland Yard would probably prevent me from doing it
But all in all, the politician's lot is a tough one and a thankless one..
you are condemned to granola and sandals for the rest of your political life whilst watching the rest of us eat beef wellington
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-03/u-k-settles-eu-bill-once-called-appalling-by-cameron
never again
The Telegraph hangs repeatedly, Times fails to load 70% first or second time and Mail is very busy visually.
It's called parliamentary democracy.
Well, it will weigh on some of their judgements. But two other influences are worthy of note.
One, the media. I don't foresee the Torygraph doing a Scotsman and backing the status quo at the last minute. That's slightly more possible for the Daily Mail, because scaring small-c conservatives (whatever party they vote for) is their thing. But so is xenophobia, so it's unlikely.
Two - and I can envisage pollsters and pundits getting this wrong and wagging their heads about it after the event - the shy Leavers. People who don't want to tell some twentysomething with a clipboard who stops in the high street, rings them up, or asks them online, that finally, finally, they've got a chance to do something about Johnny Foreigner after so many decades of being forced to watch black people (or is it Muslims? or chavs?) take over their country, and that they're damned if they'll be ushered like sheep into voting Remain.
The concept of "undecided voter", while convenient for pollsters and post-poll chatterers, is largely sewage.
Leave holds the flame. There's enormous passion even if their leaders are crap. It's their side that are going to do best at getting their vote out. Their constituency have been wallowing in fear for decades. Since the Poles (or is it the Pakistanis?) took over all the shops.
I don't see Flashman being able to detach their fear and conservatism from the xenophobia they've loved feeling for so long, and that they've loved thinking they've been stopped from expressing, so as to build up in their minds a passionate commitment to Remain that peaks on 23 June.
Conclusion: buy Leave.