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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For someone who’s got reputation for laziness Cameron’s running rings round the outers
Every politician is viewed in caricature. David Cameron is no exception. Journalists routinely write of him being like Flashman, of being lazy, of being an essay crisis Prime Minister who doesn’t do detail unless his back is against a wall, of being a man of no particular vision beyond keeping things steady as she goes.
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As Wellington said; Hard pounding this, gentlemen; let's see who will pound longest.
Mr Meeks does exceptionally good clickbait.
You should not confuse action with getting things done. Cameron did not need to rush this, he could have taken more time to negotiate a more substantive deal.
Some people now seem to think Cameron rushed things, which is odd. But Leave face questions as well. People have been calling for a referendum for decades, and Cameron's been saying he'll hold one for years. How come the leave campaigners (and especially the Leave establishment) are so utterly ill-prepared now one has been called?
It's almost as if they'd convinced themselves Cameron wouldn't hold one (perhaps because he wouldn't win the 2015 election). Or perhaps it's because some of them really don't want to win ...
"Cameron said he would hold a referendum. He is holding a referendum.
The Bastard, we'll get him for that..."
Hope you’re feeling better, by the way.
They already are furious ! Apparently, peace will break out on the 24th June.
So, the guy who accused the Prime Minister of coming out with a "dodgy dossier" will stay in his cabinet ?
We won't be out the EU overnight, it will take a while to decouple and negotiations will be critical.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=12185078&cc=12181295
EEA ?, EFTA ? NAFTA ? Commonwealth EA ? Part of USA ? Part of Canada. Rename the UK as "Gloriously Independent Britain" ?
[ All without Scotland and possibly Wales and NI ]
You could look at the opposite side of that, someone who has gone against his stated views and decided to be "loyal".
Javid for example, who looks so uncomfortable talking about this subject he will be well down the batting order when Remain wheel out Cabinet ministers to bolster their campaign.
In fact I wouldn't be surprised if his conscience gets the better of him and he changes sides.
Yep - I'm furious with him; and wasn't even that bothered with Europe before.
A high energy renegotiation that got little, circling all the Government horses and a campaign for a status quo that doesn't exist are three things that are pretty repellant to those who cherish truth, fairness, freedom and sovereignty above a few months of economic stability.
Thanks for a great read and spawning such an interesting discussion. Looking forward to Chapter 2.
I'm really torn as he's been great for the Blue Team until now. I feel all dodgy dossier about him. Just as I did about Tony.
The only difference is that whilst I truly believe Tony lied, it was over a war. That's so WTF that I still find it incredible.
'It is highly irresponsible of the government of the country to be peddling hyperbole'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12185448/BCC-head-quits-in-Brexit-row.html
Ohio is going to be tight, very tight. Kasich might just squeak it.
From the left I see the EU as a civilizer and a safety net. I like for example the idea that even if Priti Patel becomes Tory leader we can still be assured the death penalty can never be reintroduced while we are members of the EU.
And this I think is the bottom line. Most of us never think about the nuts and bolts of the EU or even know it's responsibilities. This will come down to a visceral choice of how we individually see ourselves. The internationalists on one side the nationalists on the other
The guy was a loose cannon, now he’s a sour grape…!
Imagine if the director of the Soft Drinks Association had said "I think there should be a sugar tax. Personally"
Longworth should have resigned before he made his speech if that is how he felt.
This is a critically important decision for the country (whether or not Mr Meeks thinks it is significant) that is likely to map out our direct of travel for 20 years. It's fine for him to have an opinion and to fight hard for it, but this procedural malarkey is somewhat distasteful
Britain, economically speaking, will look very much like it looks at the moment.
We will be a mid-sized, prosperous nation that makes our living by trading with the world. We may have slightly higher tariff barriers with Europe (personally I am sceptical) but we'll do just fine, thank you very much.
And we'll have about £5-7bn net contribution back from the EU that we are able to reduce the deficit/cut taxes/increase government spending (delete as appropriate).
"From the left I see the EU as a civilizer and a safety net."
The key reason why left-leaning people like the EU. It isn't democratic in that you can't vote them out, but if it fits your definition of "progressive", then democracy can go to hell. You are right and the majority are wrong. So if it circumvents people making fools of themselves by voting wrongly, then that's all to the good.
Left to our own devices, we often vote for the wrong government.
The other bloc vote are the Europeans. They regards themselves as citizens of Europe rather than the UK. I don't, but I respect their point of view.
All the talk of minutiae like trade agreements is just flim-flam.
Then Cameron should also resign.
Cameron is leader of a country that is divided in its opinion over Brexit. Yet has expressed far more than just an opinion, and has instead pushed every advantage he can, to win a vote no matter the consequences.
I am an admirer of Cameron. He has modernised the Tory party and made it fit for the modern world. He has, with Osborne, kept a ship that was right on the rocks steady and gently steered it to less scary waters, if not yet to safety. He has allowed Gove and even IDS to make important long term reforms that will improve this country. He won nearly 100 seats in 2010 and then an absolute majority in 2015. There have been disappointments too but the idea that someone achieved all of this without being very good at politics is self indulgent twaddle.
On the EU I respectfully disagree with him but I do agree with Alastair that those who have to date got the benefit of his efforts are finding what it is like to be on the other side. Not many in the Labour or Lib Dem parties have ever believed in his genial persona. Like all winners he plays to win and he generally does.
The price of winning this time will be a lot of bruises on his own side and I think his leadership is coming to an end. It seems a little premature as there is still much to do and I don't see anyone with anything like his skills to take his place. Just as the sea gets more turbulent again we are about to lose our captain. It is unfortunate.
Which box would you put me in?
And a nice article by Roger Bootle on the winners and losers from Brexit. Among other things it provides this useful explanation of why we shouldn't place too much weight on the hand waving of some big businesses.
'Companies that might lose from Brexit would be primarily those that export heavily into the European Union, do not import that much from the rest of the world and do not do that much business in the UK. To continue to sell into the European single market, they would have to comply with European regulations, even if those regulations were rescinded by the UK.
The gainers from Brexit would be consumers – with lower tariff-free and CAP-free prices for food and other goods – and a whole raft of businesses that don’t do any exporting to the EU, most likely small and medium-sized enterprises. Neither of these groups will figure in the deliberations of big business leaders.'
Only one explanation, but an important one - the voice of the consumer is rarely heard in this debate, but for a proper calculation of the net costs and benefits, it is essential.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/06/exactly-why-is-big-business-so-in-favourof-the-eu/
Had a winning US state bet last night.
OK It was Sanders at 1-50 in Maine, but it looked like a total shoo in from twitter
Must do S3 again.
Just my luck to miss the only pro-Leave thread yesterday.
Cameron also has the inherent advantage of not having to wait for 3/8 of the campaigning period for him or his movement to be designated the official Remain campaign.
@AlastairMeeks
Ho hum
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
Only because Cameron is taking advantage of his position!
Tory MPs overall are fairly evenly divided.
This one is the same song different verse.
Closure of Balkans route, sealing Aegean Sea & 'collective EU responsibility' for Greece - draft #EUCO conclusions https://t.co/jUjLLSA58r
I don't see that as a strength.
If we elect a government with a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum on the death penalty or to renationalise the power industry, then no external body should be standing in the government's way to enact its manifesto.
Possibly a tad unfair, but they certainly aren’t intereted in co-operating with anyone else.
John Longworth has resigned as director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, leaving him free to campaign for the UK to leave the EU.
Explaining his decision to stand down, he told Sky News: "I would like to be free to be able to express my own views on the EU referendum debate."
His resignation was announced by the BCC two days after he was suspended for speaking out in support of a Brexit.
The business group has denied being influenced by politicians or interest groups, but UKIP MP Douglas Carswell tweeted: "Well done Downing Street. You got your man.
"This is what Project Fear looks like. Nasty people in Number 10."
http://news.sky.com/story/1654658/business-leader-in-brexit-controversy-resigns
"The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign."
You have to substantiate that line.
Personally I love Europe. Completely separate to whether the Eurocracy is good for us though.
There are enough Leavers on the board with friends, relatives, business contacts to put your xenophobia argument to the sword a dozen times over. It's horseshit and you should really just grow up.
Ive spent most of my working life in pan European roles been MD, CEO and chairman of European companies. I don't hate anyone.
But I do think we would be better off outside
1. EU wants to integrate and we don't
2. We'd have better longterm economic prospects if we were;nt chained to a giant which wants to go in a different direction than we do.
I will vote Leave and am resigned to the fact I will be voting on the losing side.
But just because you lose doesn't mean you were wrong.
I think this is a fair piece. Leave are angry with Cameron, and will remain so, but most people will not be as furious as they. They might, line me, see Cameron's deal as crappy, but be put off by the whinging about him being unfair or mean. And is true he is called lazy and yet has put in loads of effort, that's one thing leave are complaining about, that he is hitting them hard. It's like the brief period when the Tories tries saying ed m was both weak and useless but also malevolently competent.
I think this piece recognises Cameron is in trouble even if he wins, as leavers have insisted, while pointing out done of the flaws in the conplaints some in leave have had as they play the man not the ball, but Ineffectively. I second that.
"I don't think untrammelled democracy is always a good thing."
You are honest, but most people pretend to accept democracy with all its faults. I suspect you would be far less keen on the EU if it were to have a more right wing ethos.
I've never had much luck with voting. I started off voting for Wilson and I voted labour up to 1997, when I s witched to LD until the last election, and then voted Ukip rather than spoil the ballot paper. After 1979, I was always in a minority.
I preferred to think I was a social democrat, rather than a socialist, and the democracy bit was vital. I wonder how many other 'progressives' would vote Remain if the Eastern European countries took control.
"What do we want?"
"Democracy."
"When do we want it?"
"Only when it's convenient."
Most of this post is about the personal qualities of David Cameron rather than the referendum itself. In my judgement he is currently proving to be a highly effective politician, head and shoulders ahead of his current opponents (many of whom have pretensions to succeed him) put together.
If the reaction of some Leavers to me expressing this view is to grumble about me, that's their right. But to use a Dad's Army reference, since those seem popular on the Leave side, they don't like it up 'em.
@rosschawkins: Ouch https://t.co/TEdD48HPiZ
That I'm an internationalist, or that I'm for leave?
"In my judgement he is currently proving to be a highly effective politician."
I agree, but I'm never too sure what his true views are. He does remind strongly of Teflon Tony. Professional politicians who are good at what they do.
Jezza is refreshing in that respect - he's a professional politician who's bad at what he does.
The EU are the proxy opposition, but it really is a very hollow position for the left.
The EU is the vehicle that enables the German automobile industry to sell 700,000 cars in the UK and pay how much corporation tax in the UK on those profits?
The EU is the construct that enables Slovakia to produce Porshe Cayennes for German industry with a starting retail in excess of £50k, in a nation with a minimum wage of under £2 an hour.
Starbucks and Sports Direct - Anglo-American companies - have been routinely vilified for tax and wages policies yet the companies exploiting the same from within the EU remain unchallenged.
It seems to me that a genuinely committed left within the EU would be arguing for harmonised corporation tax, minimum wages, tax paid in the jurisdiction of sale etc. There is nothing though. Not a peep beyond, "the Tories, the Kippers".
Maomentum
Fantastic news that Derek Hatton has been allowed to rejoin @UKLabour! Welcome home!
Now while it's fair to say Leave haven't got their act together - they haven't - after a while it becomes about as novel as my views on Osborne.
So if you're worried that no-one is penning the positive case for REMAIN, if you're not going to do it who then is ?
But anyway, I stopped voting Tory in 2011 so it's not my problem.
And a personal plea to tv writers - stop and think hard before you do extended sessions of dream sequences or hallucinations. It's rarely as clever as you think as you get surreal and metaphorical, and is usually just self indulgent, pretentious, slow and irritating. I'm a leaver, and in my view many on my side need to stop acting so uppity about being needled by such headers. Ed m fans, there were a few, probably felt the same a year ago. This piece actually acknowledges several points leave have made re camerons tactics.
I have pointed out many times I love Europe and the people. I travel there every other week and work with people across Europe daily. I just utterly loathe the political EU and how it's structured and set up including the bureaucracy that comes with it. When you have travelled and lived in as many "foreign" countries as I have then throw that insult at me but not before.
Good day all.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
Agent Carter spends 20% of one with the cast prancing round a dream sequence stage - I've no idea what it added bar a warm glow for the writer.
As well as the question of whether we go for the cut-off-the-UK-from-Europe approach to give full control over migration or the EEA approach, there is the question of the negotiations themselves and their tone.
I can only hope that if Leave win (and I will be voting that way) that moderately sane people are behind the negotiations on the UK's side. One of my biggest concerns is that the tone of the 'leave' debate (because of the question above) becomes so poisonous that it annoys the people we are negotiating with.
Your certainty in your post above is somewhat perplexing given the situation. It seems more based in faith than fact.
The BCC’s neutral stance over the EU appears to have been an agreed policy decision by the board and it was the board who suspended Longworth for breaking that agreement. The irony is that I'm sure there are those on the Leave side who would be calling for Longworth’s immediate sacking if he’d abused the BCC board’s neutrality ruling, in favour of staying in.
I'd a very strange one last week, awoke convinced it was true, overcome with anxiety then realised it was impossible. It still hangs over me and that's pretty unnerving.
I will say that UKIP MEPs tend to be less useful if you want to change anything, because they oppose the EU doing things, even if they agree with them. But they're perfectly OK in responding promptly and discussing thre issues too.