as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
Why not write a threader yourself and send it in to OGH for consideration for publication? Or do as iSam did, and write intelligent posts on your own blog and link to it here for comment.
One problem is that it's probably quite hard to get a new angle on the topic given the number of threads there have been. But more eloquent and well-considered posts from Leave's perspective (and especially the betting implications) would be welcomes. Ms Free's threader yesterday was excellent.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
Incidentally, I didn't stay up for the Clinton-Sanders debate, but reading it from a leftist perspective it was very impressive - classic Christian democrat vs socialist argument, conducted in civilised terms and thoughtful on a range of issues outside the usual range. (OxfordSimon saw it differently, though is not perhaps the target audience.)
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
Yep same here.
I don't know much about Dr Fox beyond the fact he is a medical man and a Lib Dem supporter from around Leicester.
What I do know is that I have spent most of my life living and working in Europe and elsewhere in the world, have been highly successful working for foreign companies and now run a successful company of my own based primarily on my personal relationships with people across Europe. For work purposes am tri-lingual (although sure to raise plenty of smiles with my strange sentence construction and accent). Oh and my kids have Dutch God Parents.
The idea that opposition to a political construct in any way implies opposition towards either people or countries is frankly ludicrous.
One might just as easily claim that Dr Fox hates Scotland because of his dislike of the SNP. It would be equally daft.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
Don't get too tired filling all those forms in. Imagine how difficult your job will be if we Leave.
Conor McGinn This bloke spent 25 yrs attacking Labour from outside, then says this after 5 days inside. Who does he think he is? https://t.co/iIwztg6kVE
"From the left I see the EU as a civilizer and a safety net."
The key reason why left-leaning people like the EU. It isn't democratic in that you can't vote them out, but if it fits your definition of "progressive", then democracy can go to hell. You are right and the majority are wrong. So if it circumvents people making fools of themselves by voting wrongly, then that's all to the good.
Left to our own devices, we often vote for the wrong government.
The other bloc vote are the Europeans. They regards themselves as citizens of Europe rather than the UK. I don't, but I respect their point of view.
All the talk of minutiae like trade agreements is just flim-flam.
I don't think untrammelled democracy is always a good thing. I wouldn't for example like the residents of the Paulsgrove estate to decide on the fate of paedophiles in their area. We have plenty of checks and balances within the EU. More I suspect than we have within the UK
On balance, I find democracy less of a threat to me and mine than rule by people who are unaccountable. Power tends to corrupt, so it's important to be able to throw the bums out.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
Why not write a threader yourself and send it in to OGH for consideration for publication? Or do as iSam did, and write intelligent posts on your own blog and link to it here for comment.
One problem is that it's probably quite hard to get a new angle on the topic given the number of threads there have been. But more eloquent and well-considered posts from Leave's perspective (and especially the betting implications) would be welcomes. Ms Free's threader yesterday was excellent.
In my judgement he is currently proving to be a highly effective politician, head and shoulders ahead of his current opponents (many of whom have pretensions to succeed him) put together.
Yep, Boris had a very bad day at the office. He didn't seem prepared in any way. As seems to be the case with every EU debate, the leavers can only waffle about some mythical free trade agreement with the rest of the EU that will be handed on a plate.
This was followed by Carswell being utterly skewered on Sunday Politics, showing he, or UKIP spinners, cannot even add up simple numbers of net and gross monetary contributions to EU.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
Again. Stop mixing up the EU and Europe. They are not the same thing. In times of war equating the political construct with the country might work to get the people riled up and make sure they stay onside. The rest of the time it is the sordid trick of a cheap demagogue and does you no credit at all.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
All's fair in love and war. And it doesn't have to be 75 million! If at the same rate as Bulgaria then we are talking 400,000 - close to the population of Greater Manchester.
Looks like the board of the British Chambers of Commerce were right to suspend John Longworth for breaching their agreed policy of neutrality over the forth coming EU referendum.
The guy was a loose cannon, now he’s a sour grape…!
If his employment contract required him not to express any views on EU membership, then of course. If not, not.
I doubt there is any mention of the EU referendum in Longworth’s employment contract.
The BCC’s neutral stance over the EU appears to have been an agreed policy decision by the board and it was the board who suspended Longworth for breaking that agreement. The irony is that I'm sure there are those on the Leave side who would be calling for Longworth’s immediate sacking if he’d abused the BCC board’s neutrality ruling, in favour of staying in.
And yet no one on the Leave side has asked for the heads of the board of the IoD in spite of the fact they have put the organisation into a position in direct opposition to the polled views of their members.
Britain, economically speaking, will look very much like it looks at the moment.
We will be a mid-sized, prosperous nation that makes our living by trading with the world. We may have slightly higher tariff barriers with Europe (personally I am sceptical) but we'll do just fine, thank you very much.
And we'll have about £5-7bn net contribution back from the EU that we are able to reduce the deficit/cut taxes/increase government spending (delete as appropriate).
It's very unclear IMO. It *may* be as you say above, but there are many other scenarios.
As well as the question of whether we go for the cut-off-the-UK-from-Europe approach to give full control over migration or the EEA approach, there is the question of the negotiations themselves and their tone.
I can only hope that if Leave win (and I will be voting that way) that moderately sane people are behind the negotiations on the UK's side. One of my biggest concerns is that the tone of the 'leave' debate (because of the question above) becomes so poisonous that it annoys the people we are negotiating with.
Your certainty in your post above is somewhat perplexing given the situation. It seems more based in faith than fact.
I hope we end up with EFTA/EEA or some combination. But immigration doesn't really bother me.
If we end up with no agreement and have to rely on WTO rules (unlikely in my view) then we are talking about low single digits, so not much impact.
There will be a couple of years dislocation, but in my view the EU will want a deal quickly (this is informed judgement). The dislocation to the EU of the UK leaving is going to be more existential than to the UK.
The higher growth post dislocation will rapidly offset the near term bump, but in any event we are talking about 1-2% GDP impact max (less than 1 year's growth).
The lucid reaction to a dream is much more interesting than some 2001 biology slide visual.
I'd a very strange one last week, awoke convinced it was true, overcome with anxiety then realised it was impossible. It still hangs over me and that's pretty unnerving.
Mr. kle4, not seen the US House of Cards, but avoiding dream sequences as an intro is some decent advice for books too [I heard it after I'd rewritten a start to include one, chopped off the dream itself and kept the waking, and it works pretty well as an abrupt start].
I can't believe we've been talking for 30 mins about fream sequences and no one has mentioned Bobby yet...
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
Why not write a threader yourself and send it in to OGH for consideration for publication? Or do as iSam did, and write intelligent posts on your own blog and link to it here for comment.
One problem is that it's probably quite hard to get a new angle on the topic given the number of threads there have been. But more eloquent and well-considered posts from Leave's perspective (and especially the betting implications) would be welcomes. Ms Free's threader yesterday was excellent.
The lucid reaction to a dream is much more interesting than some 2001 biology slide visual.
I'd a very strange one last week, awoke convinced it was true, overcome with anxiety then realised it was impossible. It still hangs over me and that's pretty unnerving.
Mr. kle4, not seen the US House of Cards, but avoiding dream sequences as an intro is some decent advice for books too [I heard it after I'd rewritten a start to include one, chopped off the dream itself and kept the waking, and it works pretty well as an abrupt start].
I can't believe we've been talking for 30 mins about fream sequences and no one has mentioned Bobby yet...
Unfit to lead anything, hopelessly out of his depth, pig ignorant on important issues. I always thought Boris played the part of buffoon well. Here he played it when he should not - or maybe he is a buffoon...
If he's the best Leave have, they are toast unless Remain or the EU do summat crazy.
Britain, economically speaking, will look very much like it looks at the moment.
We will be a mid-sized, prosperous nation that makes our living by trading with the world. We may have slightly higher tariff barriers with Europe (personally I am sceptical) but we'll do just fine, thank you very much.
And we'll have about £5-7bn net contribution back from the EU that we are able to reduce the deficit/cut taxes/increase government spending (delete as appropriate).
It's very unclear IMO. It *may* be as you say above, but there are many other scenarios.
As well as the question of whether we go for the cut-off-the-UK-from-Europe approach to give full control over migration or the EEA approach, there is the question of the negotiations themselves and their tone.
I can only hope that if Leave win (and I will be voting that way) that moderately sane people are behind the negotiations on the UK's side. One of my biggest concerns is that the tone of the 'leave' debate (because of the question above) becomes so poisonous that it annoys the people we are negotiating with.
Your certainty in your post above is somewhat perplexing given the situation. It seems more based in faith than fact.
I hope we end up with EFTA/EEA or some combination. But immigration doesn't really bother me.
If we end up with no agreement and have to rely on WTO rules (unlikely in my view) then we are talking about low single digits, so not much impact.
There will be a couple of years dislocation, but in my view the EU will want a deal quickly (this is informed judgement). The dislocation to the EU of the UK leaving is going to be more existential than to the UK.
The higher growth post dislocation will rapidly offset the near term bump, but in any event we are talking about 1-2% GDP impact max (less than 1 year's growth).
We'll do just fine.
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
Both Leave and Remain seem to be conducting pretty negative campaigns to me. It's not that bothersome, though, as it's clear we either stay or we end up with an EEA-type agreement, which essentially means we have the same rights as we have now, pay in a bit less and give up the right to influence future direction. However, if I were voting Leave to substantially reduce immigration, I would be very concerned that absolutely no-one who matters in the campaign - ie, the Tories in both camps - is listening to me.
I see Number 10 has deployed Michael Fallon to cope with BCC fall out.
Says it all really.
People who want to leave Europe are seeing conspiracy theories everywhere now because they don’t want to answer the basic questions, which is if you leave Europe, where are you going? What are the new arrangements for trade? What is going to happen to the jobs that depend on Europe? They have to start answering these questions instead of coming up with rather bizarre conspiracy theories that here the British Chambers of Commerce have flatly denied.
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The nightmare scenario is Leave winning and us ending up with an EEA-type arrangement in which freedom of movement continues. That will cause huge ructions, surely, even if most of the parliamentary party is happy with that.
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
All's fair in love and war. And it doesn't have to be 75 million! If at the same rate as Bulgaria then we are talking 400,000 - close to the population of Greater Manchester.
I criticise the Remain side for lying, and I see no reason not to criticise the Leave side for the same offences.
I see that the new line from the Booers is that anything someone says about the leave campaign is attacked with the finale.. It does you no credit or it does you no credit at all
Is this the replacement for the usual refrain.. You are talking bollocks etc ?
Unfit to lead anything, hopelessly out of his depth, pig ignorant on important issues. I always thought Boris played the part of buffoon well. Here he played it when he should not - or maybe he is a buffoon...
If he's the best Leave have, they are toast unless Remain or the EU do summat crazy.
Agreed. It was an embarrassment. Confronted with his own past pronouncements he was quite unable to give a coherent response.
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
It is ludicrously extreme, of course.
The underlying point is a fair one though, and one which Remain seem loathe to answer.
There are five countries with populations totalling 85 million in the waiting room to join the EU.
The experience of the last decade shows that we can reasonably expect 1-3% of those populations to migrate to the UK on accession. That is the best part of 2.5m people at the top end of that range. Osborne's minimum wage magnet - the highest salaries for the unskilled in Europe - will be in full flow in 2020.
What plans do Remain have to deal with this highly probable influx?
The housing, the education and health systems and the effect on wages - what's their plan?
If more poor countries join, what is the likely repercussion for our contribution?
Every so often the hierarchs of Brussels publish a manifesto or programme, sketching out the route map to further integration...
Oh come off it, we say. It’ll never happen – it’s just the usual old windy Euro-rhetoric...
[Today] They want a euro-area treasury, with further pooling of tax and budgetary policy. They want to harmonise insolvency law, company law, property rights, social security systems – and there is no way the UK can be unaffected by this process. As the Five Presidents put it: “Much can be already achieved through a deepening of the Single Market, which is important for all 28 EU member states.” So even though Britain is out of the euro, there is nothing we can do to stop our friends from using “single market” legislation to push forward centralising measures that will help prop up the euro (or so they imagine), by aligning EU economic, social and fiscal policies.
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
Yup. I generally don't attack Cameron that much, but that Hollande moment has to be the low point of his permiership.
The PM stands by while someone threatens his country.
EU referendum: Britain's biggest environmental charities using public cash to call for In vote
Britain's biggest environmental charities have been accused of using public donations to campaign for staying in the European Union.
The charities watchdog will on Monday issue new guidance on political neutrality after Friends of the Earth, The Wildlife Trusts and Greenpeace all made public comments backing EU membership.
Britain, economically speaking, will look very much like it looks at the moment.
We will be a mid-sized, prosperous nation that makes our living by trading with the world. We may have slightly higher tariff barriers with Europe (personally I am sceptical) but we'll do just fine, thank you very much.
And we'll have about £5-7bn net contribution back from the EU that we are able to reduce the deficit/cut taxes/increase government spending (delete as appropriate).
It's very unclear IMO. It *may* be as you say above, but there are many other scenarios.
As well as the question of whether we go for the cut-off-the-UK-from-Europe approach to give full control over migration or the EEA approach, there is the question of the negotiations themselves and their tone.
I can only hope that if Leave win (and I will be voting that way) that moderately sane people are behind the negotiations on the UK's side. One of my biggest concerns is that the tone of the 'leave' debate (because of the question above) becomes so poisonous that it annoys the people we are negotiating with.
Your certainty in your post above is somewhat perplexing given the situation. It seems more based in faith than fact.
I hope we end up with EFTA/EEA or some combination. But immigration doesn't really bother me.
If we end up with no agreement and have to rely on WTO rules (unlikely in my view) then we are talking about low single digits, so not much impact.
There will be a couple of years dislocation, but in my view the EU will want a deal quickly (this is informed judgement). The dislocation to the EU of the UK leaving is going to be more existential than to the UK.
The higher growth post dislocation will rapidly offset the near term bump, but in any event we are talking about 1-2% GDP impact max (less than 1 year's growth).
We'll do just fine.
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
Yep, any Brexit deal that involves on-going free movement of people - and that is what we are going to get - will lead to a good percentage of Leave voters feeling utterly betrayed.
EU referendum: Britain's biggest environmental charities using public cash to call for In vote
Britain's biggest environmental charities have been accused of using public donations to campaign for staying in the European Union.
The charities watchdog will on Monday issue new guidance on political neutrality after Friends of the Earth, The Wildlife Trusts and Greenpeace all made public comments backing EU membership.
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
Twice PM and three referendums won. He'll cope.
Nah. he'll be damaged goods.
Blair three times PM and won a war - still a social Pariah. Just him and his bank account.
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later
Given the inevitable parallels being drawn with the Indyref, I wonder if this one will pan out too.
We now know that most of the 'bad things' the 'remain' camp said in the Indyref were in fact true. iScot would be an economic basket case, and the SNP dare not try again in the foreseeable future because of it.
If remain wins, will we get any clear indications that the warnings were based more in reality than the 'unicorns for all' leave rhetoric?
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
Twice PM and three referendums won. He'll cope.
Blair won more elections and look at how he is viewed by posterity.
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
Twice PM and three referendums won. He'll cope.
Nah. he'll be damaged goods.
Blair three times PM and won a war - still a social Pariah. Just him and his bank account.
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
Twice PM and three referendums won. He'll cope.
Nah. he'll be damaged goods.
Blair three times PM and won a war - still a social Pariah. Just him and his bank account.
Unfit to lead anything, hopelessly out of his depth, pig ignorant on important issues. I always thought Boris played the part of buffoon well. Here he played it when he should not - or maybe he is a buffoon...
If he's the best Leave have, they are toast unless Remain or the EU do summat crazy.
'there is nothing we can do to stop our friends from using “single market” legislation to push forward centralising measures that will help prop up the euro (or so they imagine), by aligning EU economic, social and fiscal policies.'
Absolutely right. This is why the supposed safeguards in the PM's 'deal' are so worthless. They will be disregarded as soon as it is expedient for the Eurozone to do so.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
All's fair in love and war. And it doesn't have to be 75 million! If at the same rate as Bulgaria then we are talking 400,000 - close to the population of Greater Manchester.
I criticise the Remain side for lying, and I see no reason not to criticise the Leave side for the same offences.
Agreed. It is a ludicrous and dangerous claim. I would suggest it is worse than the idiotic 3 million jobs claim because it plays on people's bigotry rather than just on their fears (if you see what I mean by that)
There is not a cat in hell's chance of Turkey getting into the EU in the next few decades and I would probably put money on it not happening in my lifetime. A nice little earner for my kids.
"The idea of the Single Market has become so capacious that it is a cloak for full-scale political and economic union. We now have up to half our law coming from the EU (some say two thirds); and if the Five Presidents get their way, the process of centralisation will simply continue – much of it in the name of the “Single Market”. It’s time we learnt the lesson. The federalists do mean it when they sketch out these programmes. The ratchet is clicking forwards. When you come to vote, the status quo is not on offer."
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
Twice PM and three referendums won. He'll cope.
Blair won more elections and look at how he is viewed by posterity.
It's too early to say how Blair will be viewed by posterity.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
I've got a better chance of having a threesome with Miranda Kerr and Rosie Huntington-Whitely than Turkey have of joining the EU. Anyone who says this is going to happen is either a deluded eurofanatic or a liar sceptic.
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
Yup. I generally don't attack Cameron that much, but that Hollande moment has to be the low point of his permiership.
The PM stands by while someone threatens his country.
I more or less missed the 'Hollande moment', though I have seen it referred to many times. Can someone give links to both sides please, and the original video/article/speech?
EU referendum: Britain's biggest environmental charities using public cash to call for In vote
Britain's biggest environmental charities have been accused of using public donations to campaign for staying in the European Union.
The charities watchdog will on Monday issue new guidance on political neutrality after Friends of the Earth, The Wildlife Trusts and Greenpeace all made public comments backing EU membership.
Yesterday I cancelled my memberships of the two wildlife trusts I have supported for more than 20 years because of this.
The organisation that I work for isn't a charity (though it has a charitable arm to support e.g. research work), but we agreed to stay neutral on the EU and simply set out the pros and cons related to our issue (basically it's harder to get change if you have to persuade 28 countries, though it has a wider effect if you succeed). Couldn't see an advantage for animal welfare in pitching in either way.
The position may be a bit different for environmental groups, though, since some environment efforts really only work if done on a broad Europe scale - e.g. if only one North Sea country tries to reduce emissions into the water, it's largely wasting its time. We could negotiate such things outside the EU but it's arguably easier to have a joint body collectively committed.
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
Twice PM and three referendums won. He'll cope.
Nah. he'll be damaged goods.
Blair three times PM and won a war - still a social Pariah. Just him and his bank account.
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
Twice PM and three referendums won. He'll cope.
Nah. he'll be damaged goods.
Blair three times PM and won a war - still a social Pariah. Just him and his bank account.
'The idea of the Single Market has become so capacious that it is a cloak for full-scale political and economic union'
That was always the idea. Some people worked that out thirty years ago. Others are still counting on their fingers or have their heads stuck in the sand.
Cameron may be winning some battles but his and Osborne's bullying tactics on this will not be forgotten.
Both REMAIN and LEAVE are guilty of some unedifying tactics but why this would surprise anyone is baffling. It's what politicians do to win their case. The punters expect little else and are never disappointed.
The advantage is with REMAIN because their set of duplicitous campaigners are more effective than LEAVE who presently could organise a decent orgy in a brothel.
On topic, if one thinks of Cameron as the Conservative Party's head then one might say that the beast's jaws are biting into its own stomach and that its muzzle is red with its own blood.
Britain, economically speaking, will look very much like it looks at the moment.
We will be a mid-sized, prosperous nation that makes our living by trading with the world. We may have slightly higher tariff barriers with Europe (personally I am sceptical) but we'll do just fine, thank you very much.
And we'll have about £5-7bn net contribution back from the EU that we are able to reduce the deficit/cut taxes/increase government spending (delete as appropriate).
It's very unclear IMO. It *may* be as you say above, but there are many other scenarios.
As well as the question of whether we go for the cut-off-the-UK-from-Europe approach to give full control over migration or the EEA approach, there is the question of the negotiations themselves and their tone.
I can only hope that if Leave win (and I will be voting that way) that moderately sane people are behind the negotiations on the UK's side. One of my biggest concerns is that the tone of the 'leave' debate (because of the question above) becomes so poisonous that it annoys the people we are negotiating with.
Your certainty in your post above is somewhat perplexing given the situation. It seems more based in faith than fact.
I hope we end up with EFTA/EEA or some combination. But immigration doesn't really bother me.
If we end up with no agreement and have to rely on WTO rules (unlikely in my view) then we are talking about low single digits, so not much impact.
There will be a couple of years dislocation, but in my view the EU will want a deal quickly (this is informed judgement). The dislocation to the EU of the UK leaving is going to be more existential than to the UK.
The higher growth post dislocation will rapidly offset the near term bump, but in any event we are talking about 1-2% GDP impact max (less than 1 year's growth).
We'll do just fine.
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
On topic, if one thinks of Cameron as the Conservative Party's head then one might say that the beast's jaws are biting into its own stomach and that its muzzle is red with its own blood.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
I've got a better chance of having a threesome with Miranda Kerr and Rosie Huntington-Whitely than Turkey have of joining the EU. Anyone who says this is going to happen is either a deluded eurofanatic or a liar sceptic.
Hold on. Cameron's and British foreign policy is for Turkey to join EU. Has been for years. See for example:
So, although I am a Remainer, I don't see why this shouldn't be a legitimate debating point (hopefully without the lurid headlines and made-up numbers).
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
EU referendum: Britain's biggest environmental charities using public cash to call for In vote
Britain's biggest environmental charities have been accused of using public donations to campaign for staying in the European Union.
The charities watchdog will on Monday issue new guidance on political neutrality after Friends of the Earth, The Wildlife Trusts and Greenpeace all made public comments backing EU membership.
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
Twice PM and three referendums won. He'll cope.
Nah. he'll be damaged goods.
Blair three times PM and won a war - still a social Pariah. Just him and his bank account.
Good Morning all. Very thoughtful article, and as far as I can see, the main point is in the first paragraph "unless his back is against a wall". Cameron knows he is leaving No. 10 before the next election and is now desperate about how his "legacy" will be seen to be. It is for his honour and the respect he believes it is due that he fights for, and he intends to win, however and what ever it takes. It ain't going to be pretty, it will be painful to those in his way and as the Tories are just about to realise is that he does have his finger on the big red button, which if he thinks it is needed, he will push and cause a GE. (Forget Fixed terms, there will always be ways round the rules as long as we have a Civil Service)
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
I've got a better chance of having a threesome with Miranda Kerr and Rosie Huntington-Whitely than Turkey have of joining the EU. Anyone who says this is going to happen is either a deluded eurofanatic or a liar sceptic.
Hold on. Cameron's and British foreign policy is for Turkey to join EU. Has been for years. See for example:
So, although I am a Remainer, I don't see why this shouldn't be a legitimate debating point (hopefully without the lurid headlines and made-up numbers).
Greece and Cyprus. Until the North Cyprus issue is settled by the unconditional surrender of northern Cyprus to the Cypriot government both countries will block Turkey's entry into the EU. It's never going to happen, at least not in my lifetime.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
I've got a better chance of having a threesome with Miranda Kerr and Rosie Huntington-Whitely than Turkey have of joining the EU. Anyone who says this is going to happen is either a deluded eurofanatic or a liar sceptic.
Hold on. Cameron's and British foreign policy is for Turkey to join EU. Has been for years. See for example:
So, although I am a Remainer, I don't see why this shouldn't be a legitimate debating point (hopefully without the lurid headlines and made-up numbers).
Sure it is. But that's basically just to wind up the French.
On topic, if one thinks of Cameron as the Conservative Party's head then one might say that the beast's jaws are biting into its own stomach and that its muzzle is red with its own blood.
The animal never knew how sharp its teeth were.
It's Gustavus Adolphus, looking oddly like a cardinal for some reason.
Someone who was on the verge of European domination until he came to a sticky end.
EU referendum: Britain's biggest environmental charities using public cash to call for In vote
Britain's biggest environmental charities have been accused of using public donations to campaign for staying in the European Union.
The charities watchdog will on Monday issue new guidance on political neutrality after Friends of the Earth, The Wildlife Trusts and Greenpeace all made public comments backing EU membership.
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
he could have taken more time to negotiate a more substantive deal.
Ah, the fabled "better deal" so beloved of the Outers, although nobody can say what this deal looks like, how it would have been arrived at, or why, given they were so reluctant to sign this one, other EU leaders would have signed any other more willingly.
"From the left I see the EU as a civilizer and a safety net."
The key reason why left-leaning people like the EU. It isn't democratic in that you can't vote them out, but if it fits your definition of "progressive", then democracy can go to hell. You are right and the majority are wrong. So if it circumvents people making fools of themselves by voting wrongly, then that's all to the good.
Left to our own devices, we often vote for the wrong government.
The other bloc vote are the Europeans. They regards themselves as citizens of Europe rather than the UK. I don't, but I respect their point of view.
All the talk of minutiae like trade agreements is just flim-flam.
I think the reason why many left-leaning people will vote REMAIN is not that they have any great affection for the EU but because the UKIP/Gove vision of a future independent UK is a real turn off.
On topic, if one thinks of Cameron as the Conservative Party's head then one might say that the beast's jaws are biting into its own stomach and that its muzzle is red with its own blood.
The animal never knew how sharp its teeth were.
It's Gustavus Adolphus, looking oddly like a cardinal for some reason.
Someone who was on the verge of European domination until he came to a sticky end.
"From the left I see the EU as a civilizer and a safety net."
The key reason why left-leaning people like the EU. It isn't democratic in that you can't vote them out, but if it fits your definition of "progressive", then democracy can go to hell. You are right and the majority are wrong. So if it circumvents people making fools of themselves by voting wrongly, then that's all to the good.
Left to our own devices, we often vote for the wrong government.
The other bloc vote are the Europeans. They regards themselves as citizens of Europe rather than the UK. I don't, but I respect their point of view.
All the talk of minutiae like trade agreements is just flim-flam.
I don't think untrammelled democracy is always a good thing. I wouldn't for example like the residents of the Paulsgrove estate to decide on the fate of paedophiles in their area. We have plenty of checks and balances within the EU. More I suspect than we have within the UK
On balance, I find democracy less of a threat to me and mine than rule by people who are unaccountable. Power tends to corrupt, so it's important to be able to throw the bums out.
But don't you find a rule book which we helped to write even more reassuring? Don't you like the idea that what we call civilization doesn't only apply to us but it's a prerequisite to joining our 27 nation club?
Doesn't it appeal to you that these rules which we helped to set now apply to so many countries that might not have applied them without our help? That we can go to any of these countries and expect the same rules on hygene safety and human rights that we expect at home.....
I think our small financial contribution is cheap at the price and hasn't our imperial history been all about exporting our brand of civilization?
he could have taken more time to negotiate a more substantive deal.
Ah, the fabled "better deal" so beloved of the Outers, although nobody can say what this deal looks like, how it would have been arrived at, or why, given they were so reluctant to sign this one, other EU leaders would have signed any other more willingly.
"From the left I see the EU as a civilizer and a safety net."
The key reason why left-leaning people like the EU. It isn't democratic in that you can't vote them out, but if it fits your definition of "progressive", then democracy can go to hell. You are right and the majority are wrong. So if it circumvents people making fools of themselves by voting wrongly, then that's all to the good.
Left to our own devices, we often vote for the wrong government.
The other bloc vote are the Europeans. They regards themselves as citizens of Europe rather than the UK. I don't, but I respect their point of view.
All the talk of minutiae like trade agreements is just flim-flam.
I think the reason why many left-leaning people will vote REMAIN is not that they have any great affection for the EU but because the UKIP/Gove vision of a future independent UK is a real turn off.
The EU is a protectionist bloc, it appeals to the left on an intrinsic level that a free trading vision of the UK that Leave are advertising doesn't.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I agree, the Xenophobes just can't help themselves and in the end that will doom the LEAVE campaign in my opinion.
Oh - and IMHO he'll be gone in 2016 regardless of the result.
This EU thing does increasingly feel like Iraq doesn't?
Whilst the damage to the Conservatives probably won't be immediate (just as the damage Iraq did to Labour wasn't) I wouldn't be surprised if in the end it goes a long way to destroying the Tories for a very long time (just as Iraq has hung over and pretty well destroyed the Labour Party)
Cameron's name and legacy will be toxic within his Party which is a shame because like you say he has been quite good until he finally unleashed his EUphilia.
"The idea of the Single Market has become so capacious that it is a cloak for full-scale political and economic union. We now have up to half our law coming from the EU (some say two thirds); and if the Five Presidents get their way, the process of centralisation will simply continue – much of it in the name of the “Single Market”. It’s time we learnt the lesson. The federalists do mean it when they sketch out these programmes. The ratchet is clicking forwards. When you come to vote, the status quo is not on offer."
What I would be very interested in seeing is some sort of breakdown of how euro-federalist the rest of the EU countries are. If the rest of them are full steam ahead to ever closer union then the game is up for the UK and we would be better of getting ourselves a new form of membership, but if we have a reasonable number of anti-integrationist allies (eg Poland and some of the other Eastern Europeans) then it would be worth staying and fighting our corner.
Overall, I would quite like to see what the medium term effects of Cameron's renegotiations are before making a decision on staying or leaving. Do they set us on a new path in Europe or does it just carry on as before. I think if they were shown to have failed, then the Tory party would almost certainly be united behind Leave rather than split as it is currently.
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
We elect a government to govern.
Indeed. But the government may not be able to reliably govern on this matter if there are three sides in that government: the hardcore outers, the EEA group, and the remainers, who might well be the largest grouping due to the split in the Leavers (although many remainers may move to the EEA group if they see the country has voted for Leave).
Then there is the effect that such arguments will have on our continental neighbours with whom we will be negotiating. The more senior politicians and the media call them all sorts of names and accuse them of base motives, as we are already seeing, the harder it will be for the negotiations to be to our advantage.
In short, we need to be love-bombing the EU countries (and especially the Eurozone ones) if we vote Leave. "Sorry, we're leaving. Let's still be friends." Sadly, I think we'll end up doing the opposite.
Oh - and IMHO he'll be gone in 2016 regardless of the result.
This EU thing does increasingly feel like Iraq doesn't?
Whilst the damage to the Conservatives probably won't be immediate (just as the damage Iraq did to Labour wasn't) I wouldn't be surprised if in the end it goes a long way to destroying the Tories for a very long time (just as Iraq has hung over and pretty well destroyed the Labour Party)
Cameron's name and legacy will be toxic within his Party which is a shame because like you say he has been quite good until he finally unleashed his EUphilia.
I'm still not convinced on Cameron being a massive Europhile, I still think it is Osborne driving this campaign behind the scenes.
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
We elect a government to govern.
Spot on. What UKIP says in this referendum is entirely irrelevant to the Brexit deal we get. The Leave Tories are the only ones who matter and the ones who really matter in that camp are those with a chance of being involved in the negotiations - that is, Gove and Boris. As Boris made plain yesterday, he thinks he can do business with a Germany that insists on free movement of people as part of any new package. He also intimated he was relaxed about a Swiss-style settlement.
The problem with all of the above, though, is that it is UKIP voters and right-wing Tories who will help to deliver a Leave win. If they do not get significant restrictions on free movement of people - and they won't - they are going to feel utterly betrayed.
Hopefully this post isn't deleted as my last one was. I'll probably be banned again after this... Thanks to the person that unbans me, de temps en temps
I shall be renewing my Tory membership for the 19th consecutive year in the next few days, so I'm qualified better than most to talk about party members. Anyone who thinks this is Cameron's Iraq and the Tory will do a Corbyn are quite frankly barking.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The point you are missing is that Blair still won elections after Iraq because of the state of the Opposition. That didn't and doesn't change the scorn and derision with which he is now viewed by most of the public. That will be Cameron's legacy as well.
Yup. I generally don't attack Cameron that much, but that Hollande moment has to be the low point of his permiership.
The PM stands by while someone threatens his country.
I more or less missed the 'Hollande moment', though I have seen it referred to many times. Can someone give links to both sides please, and the original video/article/speech?
TIA.
Version A - Hollande said that if the UK left the EU there would be "consequences" - which might appear to be a statement of the obvious, unless you are a more excitable LEAVEr in which case
Version B After fellating Hollande, Cameron bent over the lecturn for a good rogering too....
The other reason Cameron looks like being off this year is that the effort he is putting in will leave him exhausted in 4 months time. Samantha will also be leaning on him to go early. Presiding over a bitter split party will be no fun. Just one sign of a letter from the 1922 may be enough.
as one of PBs leading Remainers your constant feed of clickbait is just getting tedious.
Yesterday in response to Cyclefree you say someone needs to be putting the positive case for REMAIN. Today once again it's rile up the LEAVERS for your own personal amusement.
As ever it's not what you say, it's what you do.
The campaign for Leave is a highly negative one too, based on hatred of eveything European or foreign. Hardly a positive one...
You see its this sort of post that mildly irritates me, I've been a Leaver for years but I don't have a hatred of anything European or foreign.
Allegedly intelligent and rational people are spouting errant nonsense. The fact that the majority of thread headers are for In fans the flames. This blog reflects the country right now: the establishment desperately campaigning to Remain while the minions are split roughly in half.
There is plenty of negativity in the Leave campaign. Just the other day Gove was saying that the EU encouraged Fascism, and yesterday Boris compared the EU to a jail. These are the less extreme end of the Leave campaign too.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
I might mention the poster I saw shared on Facebook yesterday from one of the leave campaigns about Turkey joining the EU, and the headline was something like Can the NHS Deal with 75m Turks?
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
All's fair in love and war. And it doesn't have to be 75 million! If at the same rate as Bulgaria then we are talking 400,000 - close to the population of Greater Manchester.
I criticise the Remain side for lying, and I see no reason not to criticise the Leave side for the same offences.
Population Bulgaria 7.25 Million (Google) : number of Bulgarians in UK 65000 (ONS). Population Turkey 75 Million (Google) - same rate = 672000. Population Manchester 517000 (Google) - so yes (without affecting argument) a typo was made.
Hopefully this post isn't deleted as my last one was. I'll probably be banned again after this... Thanks to the person that unbans me, de temps en temps
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
We elect a government to govern.
Spot on. What UKIP says in this referendum is entirely irrelevant to the Brexit deal we get. The Leave Tories are the only ones who matter and the ones who really matter in that camp are those with a chance of being involved in the negotiations - that is, Gove and Boris. As Boris made plain yesterday, he thinks he can do business with a Germany that insists on free movement of people as part of any new package. He also intimated he was relaxed about a Swiss-style settlement.
The problem with all of the above, though, is that it is UKIP voters and right-wing Tories who will help to deliver a Leave win. If they do not get significant restrictions on free movement of people - and they won't - they are going to feel utterly betrayed.
So what if they feel betrayed? I want to leave as much as anyone, but am not stupid enough to expect a sea change overnight
We could leave the EEA without a referendum, and maybe the next govt will. Maybe they won't... But it would still be better than now
Is this the replacement for the usual refrain.. You are talking bollocks etc ?
It's this referendum's "talking Scotland down"
EDIT: Also a useful marker that the point they are complaining about is entirely valid and they have no rational response.
What we're missing so far is the omnipurpose insult equivalent of "Turnip" when one of the more excitable posters has an ugly confrontation with facts.
The other reason Cameron looks like being off this year is that the effort he is putting in will leave him exhausted in 4 months time. Samantha will also be leaning on him to go early. Presiding over a bitter split party will be no fun. Just one sign of a letter from the 1922 may be enough.
Presiding over a bitter split party will be no fun.
That's a problem for whoever takes over if leave wins. When the Outers realise free movement is still part of the new deal, the real fun will start...
he could have taken more time to negotiate a more substantive deal.
Ah, the fabled "better deal" so beloved of the Outers, although nobody can say what this deal looks like, how it would have been arrived at, or why, given they were so reluctant to sign this one, other EU leaders would have signed any other more willingly.
"From the left I see the EU as a civilizer and a safety net."
The key reason why left-leaning people like the EU. It isn't democratic in that you can't vote them out, but if it fits your definition of "progressive", then democracy can go to hell. You are right and the majority are wrong. So if it circumvents people making fools of themselves by voting wrongly, then that's all to the good.
Left to our own devices, we often vote for the wrong government.
The other bloc vote are the Europeans. They regards themselves as citizens of Europe rather than the UK. I don't, but I respect their point of view.
All the talk of minutiae like trade agreements is just flim-flam.
I think the reason why many left-leaning people will vote REMAIN is not that they have any great affection for the EU but because the UKIP/Gove vision of a future independent UK is a real turn off.
It's not just the left. I think many are scared to death by what they see as an independent UK in the mould of Gove and Farage. It's one of the weaknesses of the Leave campaign. Fortunately I can't see how they can do anything about it because it's the reality
Is this the replacement for the usual refrain.. You are talking bollocks etc ?
It's this referendum's "talking Scotland down"
EDIT: Also a useful marker that the point they are complaining about is entirely valid and they have no rational response.
What we're missing so far is the omnipurpose insult equivalent of "Turnip" when one of the more excitable posters has an ugly confrontation with facts.
My point is that if Leave wins, there is the potential for massive arguments between the Leavers (with Remain supporters sticking their oar in) over what Leave actually means. These are being somewhat glossed over atm because sensible Leavers know that they need a broad church to win. The arguments are being left for later.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
The decision will be made by the government of the day, whether that's Cameron or someone else. No one else get's a look in.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
That's irrelevant to my point. The government will be conducting negotiations in an atmosphere that may well poison those negotiations because there will be different views of what 'Leave' means.
Governments are more serious than that. The fulminations of Farage et al will be largely irrelevant when it comes to the business of negotiating a new deal.
We elect a government to govern.
Spot on. What UKIP says in this referendum is entirely irrelevant to the Brexit deal we get. The Leave Tories are the only ones who matter and the ones who really matter in that camp are those with a chance of being involved in the negotiations - that is, Gove and Boris. As Boris made plain yesterday, he thinks he can do business with a Germany that insists on free movement of people as part of any new package. He also intimated he was relaxed about a Swiss-style settlement.
The problem with all of the above, though, is that it is UKIP voters and right-wing Tories who will help to deliver a Leave win. If they do not get significant restrictions on free movement of people - and they won't - they are going to feel utterly betrayed.
So what if they feel betrayed? I want to leave as much as anyone, but am not stupid enough to expect a sea change overnight
We could leave the EEA without a referendum, and maybe the next govt will. Maybe they won't... But it would still be better than now
We could leave the EU without a referendum. But we can't leave the EEA without a negotiation, that is the key thing. We will be locked into that as much as we are locked into the EU and if we want to pull-out it will involve a lot of talking first.
Genius idea. No doubt the smugglers will take full advantage - filling up ever more rickety boats with people, safe in the knowledge that once they're in the open sea, the various navies will rescue them and ship them on to Europe.
On topic, it's a great shame that Cameron completely failed to put as much effort into his promised renegotiation, as he is into the Remain campaign. What a dud.
Comments
One problem is that it's probably quite hard to get a new angle on the topic given the number of threads there have been. But more eloquent and well-considered posts from Leave's perspective (and especially the betting implications) would be welcomes. Ms Free's threader yesterday was excellent.
There are sensible people too, but the tone of the Leave campaign is being set by the xenophobes.
Best get started on some work though. Play nicely children!
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/mar/06/democratic-debate-in-flint-and-maine-caucus-results-live
I don't know much about Dr Fox beyond the fact he is a medical man and a Lib Dem supporter from around Leicester.
What I do know is that I have spent most of my life living and working in Europe and elsewhere in the world, have been highly successful working for foreign companies and now run a successful company of my own based primarily on my personal relationships with people across Europe. For work purposes am tri-lingual (although sure to raise plenty of smiles with my strange sentence construction and accent). Oh and my kids have Dutch God Parents.
The idea that opposition to a political construct in any way implies opposition towards either people or countries is frankly ludicrous.
One might just as easily claim that Dr Fox hates Scotland because of his dislike of the SNP. It would be equally daft.
As far as I'm concerned, that is as dishonest as the claims as to 3m jobs, etc.
This bloke spent 25 yrs attacking Labour from outside, then says this after 5 days inside. Who does he think he is? https://t.co/iIwztg6kVE
This was followed by Carswell being utterly skewered on Sunday Politics, showing he, or UKIP spinners, cannot even add up simple numbers of net and gross monetary contributions to EU.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-announces-uk-deployment-for-nato-mission-in-aegean-sea-to-tackle-migrant-crisis
It's the 25th anniversary of the Ribble Valley by-election - losing Con & Lab candidates are now both in Parliament: https://t.co/GQyHOXh0Nz
So no, you are not correct.
If we end up with no agreement and have to rely on WTO rules (unlikely in my view) then we are talking about low single digits, so not much impact.
There will be a couple of years dislocation, but in my view the EU will want a deal quickly (this is informed judgement). The dislocation to the EU of the UK leaving is going to be more existential than to the UK.
The higher growth post dislocation will rapidly offset the near term bump, but in any event we are talking about 1-2% GDP impact max (less than 1 year's growth).
We'll do just fine.
Says it all really.
Most of the party are taking the Dan Hannan route, thanking the PM for holding a fair referendum, allowing any Tory to oppose him.
Look at that poll I cited yesterday, what was the top two criteria for being next Tory leader, being a competent PM and someone who can win in 2020.
To cite my old constituency chairman who makes Sir Bill Cash look like a Eurofederalist, 'Jeremy Corbyn isn't becoming PM on my watch, we've learnt the lessons of 1992-2003'
The plot that never was remains one of my series favourites.
Unfit to lead anything, hopelessly out of his depth, pig ignorant on important issues.
I always thought Boris played the part of buffoon well. Here he played it when he should not - or maybe he is a buffoon...
If he's the best Leave have, they are toast unless Remain or the EU do summat crazy.
I can see the arguments becoming very heated (much more so than at atm) and poisoning any negotiations. That's my 'informed judgement'.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/07/eu-referendum-fallon-says-brexit-campaign-pushing-conspiracy-theories-over-longworth-resignation-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
Is this the replacement for the usual refrain.. You are talking bollocks etc ?
The underlying point is a fair one though, and one which Remain seem loathe to answer.
There are five countries with populations totalling 85 million in the waiting room to join the EU.
The experience of the last decade shows that we can reasonably expect 1-3% of those populations to migrate to the UK on accession. That is the best part of 2.5m people at the top end of that range. Osborne's minimum wage magnet - the highest salaries for the unskilled in Europe - will be in full flow in 2020.
What plans do Remain have to deal with this highly probable influx?
The housing, the education and health systems and the effect on wages - what's their plan?
If more poor countries join, what is the likely repercussion for our contribution?
All in all, where is the money coming from?
The PM stands by while someone threatens his country.
Britain's biggest environmental charities have been accused of using public donations to campaign for staying in the European Union.
The charities watchdog will on Monday issue new guidance on political neutrality after Friends of the Earth, The Wildlife Trusts and Greenpeace all made public comments backing EU membership.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12184133/EU-referendum-Britains-biggest-environmental-charities-using-public-cash-to-call-for-In-vote.html
Blair three times PM and won a war - still a social Pariah. Just him and his bank account.
We now know that most of the 'bad things' the 'remain' camp said in the Indyref were in fact true. iScot would be an economic basket case, and the SNP dare not try again in the foreseeable future because of it.
If remain wins, will we get any clear indications that the warnings were based more in reality than the 'unicorns for all' leave rhetoric?
EDIT: Also a useful marker that the point they are complaining about is entirely valid and they have no rational response.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/daily-catch-up-boris-gave-straight-answers-to-questions-but-managed-to-sound-confused-a6915706.html
Absolutely right. This is why the supposed safeguards in the PM's 'deal' are so worthless. They will be disregarded as soon as it is expedient for the Eurozone to do so.
There is not a cat in hell's chance of Turkey getting into the EU in the next few decades and I would probably put money on it not happening in my lifetime. A nice little earner for my kids.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12185401/There-is-no-conspiracy.-The-EU-is-completely-open-about-its-superstate-plan.html
"The idea of the Single Market has become so capacious that it is a cloak for full-scale political and economic union. We now have up to half our law coming from the EU (some say two thirds); and if the Five Presidents get their way, the process of centralisation will simply continue – much of it in the name of the “Single Market”. It’s time we learnt the lesson. The federalists do mean it when they sketch out these programmes. The ratchet is clicking forwards. When you come to vote, the status quo is not on offer."
TIA.
The position may be a bit different for environmental groups, though, since some environment efforts really only work if done on a broad Europe scale - e.g. if only one North Sea country tries to reduce emissions into the water, it's largely wasting its time. We could negotiate such things outside the EU but it's arguably easier to have a joint body collectively committed.
@RichardDodd lives in Italy, @Felix in Spain, @geoffw in Gibraltar. And @Roger spends time in France.
Do we have any others?
b) And the recent competition is?
That was always the idea. Some people worked that out thirty years ago. Others are still counting on their fingers or have their heads stuck in the sand.
The advantage is with REMAIN because their set of duplicitous campaigners are more effective than LEAVE who presently could organise a decent orgy in a brothel.
The animal never knew how sharp its teeth were.
There's a reasonable moral case for a general election, as well, to set the negotiating stance, but I'm not sure it's practible given that the Tories would probably need to have a leadership election first.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11283924/David-Cameron-I-still-want-Turkey-to-join-EU-despite-migrant-fears.html
So, although I am a Remainer, I don't see why this shouldn't be a legitimate debating point (hopefully without the lurid headlines and made-up numbers).
I only donate to small niche charities now, apart from the National Trust.
Corbyn ahead of Foot, Kinnock, Miliband and Brown.
Someone who was on the verge of European domination until he came to a sticky end.
We elect a government to govern.
Yes it's worth taking a close look at the people at the top of these organisations
Great one.
Doesn't it appeal to you that these rules which we helped to set now apply to so many countries that might not have applied them without our help? That we can go to any of these countries and expect the same rules on hygene safety and human rights that we expect at home.....
I think our small financial contribution is cheap at the price and hasn't our imperial history been all about exporting our brand of civilization?
OED
Are you an oyster aficionado? Take our quiz about the language of seafood: https://t.co/GG1WfZq9t3 https://t.co/8CsYO2TBZ5
Whilst the damage to the Conservatives probably won't be immediate (just as the damage Iraq did to Labour wasn't) I wouldn't be surprised if in the end it goes a long way to destroying the Tories for a very long time (just as Iraq has hung over and pretty well destroyed the Labour Party)
Cameron's name and legacy will be toxic within his Party which is a shame because like you say he has been quite good until he finally unleashed his EUphilia.
Overall, I would quite like to see what the medium term effects of Cameron's renegotiations are before making a decision on staying or leaving. Do they set us on a new path in Europe or does it just carry on as before. I think if they were shown to have failed, then the Tory party would almost certainly be united behind Leave rather than split as it is currently.
Then there is the effect that such arguments will have on our continental neighbours with whom we will be negotiating. The more senior politicians and the media call them all sorts of names and accuse them of base motives, as we are already seeing, the harder it will be for the negotiations to be to our advantage.
In short, we need to be love-bombing the EU countries (and especially the Eurozone ones) if we vote Leave. "Sorry, we're leaving. Let's still be friends." Sadly, I think we'll end up doing the opposite.
The problem with all of the above, though, is that it is UKIP voters and right-wing Tories who will help to deliver a Leave win. If they do not get significant restrictions on free movement of people - and they won't - they are going to feel utterly betrayed.
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk
aka the articles that weren't good enough for PB
Hopefully this post isn't deleted as my last one was. I'll probably be banned again after this... Thanks to the person that unbans me, de temps en temps
Which countries are best and worst at attracting industry funding into universities?
@timeshighered chart https://t.co/CUY7shpOqL
Version B After fellating Hollande, Cameron bent over the lecturn for a good rogering too....
We could leave the EEA without a referendum, and maybe the next govt will. Maybe they won't... But it would still be better than now
Presiding over a bitter split party will be no fun.
That's a problem for whoever takes over if leave wins. When the Outers realise free movement is still part of the new deal, the real fun will start...
On topic, it's a great shame that Cameron completely failed to put as much effort into his promised renegotiation, as he is into the Remain campaign. What a dud.