@gabyhinsliff: The more indignant Outers get about Project Fear, the more I conclude it's working. Winning sides don't moan about the other's tactics.
That's a fair summation, Leave know they have an uphill task and are on the defensive.
Fear won the Indyref and the General Election. There is every sign that it will do the same in the EU referendum.
This is not about a rational debate - it is about winning.
Quite
and Leave's best chances are either to get a set of arguments on why we;re better off out ( ie lie as much as the other side ) or change the vote to a referendum on something else like the UK establishment ( the french option )
It is very hard for Leave to deal conclusively with the fear factor since they have to convince people that bad things - loss of trade, visa restrictions, hordes of jihadis coming through Calais etc etc - would NOT happen. Remain, on the other hand, does not have to convince people that bad things WOULD happen if we left - all they have to do is arouse fears that they MIGHT happen. This is much easier. At the moment Leave seem to have no coherent response to this dilemma. Dismissing BMW and the French government (and anyone else they disagree with) as scaremongers is wholly unconvincing.
I think there's a good deal more cynicism towards the great and the good than there was, say, in 1975. So, I think the fear factor is less potent than it would once have been.
But Leave aren't actively trading on that cynicism, so it's of limited value atm.
The problem is that the only people on the Leave side with any mass credibility potential are all part of the great and the good. The Mayor of London and cabinet ministers railing against the establishment would make themselves look ridiculous.
Depends on how you market it. Put the people of principle on the front row and see what happens. Hoey, Carswell, Field. Stuart.
@gabyhinsliff: The more indignant Outers get about Project Fear, the more I conclude it's working. Winning sides don't moan about the other's tactics.
That's a fair summation, Leave know they have an uphill task and are on the defensive.
Fear won the Indyref and the General Election. There is every sign that it will do the same in the EU referendum.
This is not about a rational debate - it is about winning.
Perhaps Leave are not being aggressive enough. They should be spreading fear about what will happen if we stay in. Its not as if there isn't enough ammunition.
The trouble is, we've been fed a steady diet of the calamity that is the EU and how disaster is just around to corner from Nigel & his merry men for years now......why should they start being believable now?
Well thats a fair point. It leads on to the fact that we have been members of the EU for decades and we are all still here and still notably independent. It is somewhat infantile to think that in the modern world (sorry to bring that up) a 'free trade' agreement is just about tariffs. As you look around you see it is about more than that, it is for instance about the ability of one nation's companies to compete in another's. This is what the EU free market is about and its about what America for one country is trying to do with its free trade agreements. Australia does not feel well served by the one it agreed with the much larger USA. Ultimately the Leavers are banging on about some very small differences to our relationships as they would be in the real world.
Smirker's only rowing back because there is now a viable alternative in Boris/Gove. He'd have been quite happy to hammer bedrock tory voters otherwise.
He has a horrible predicament now. He never cut remotely enough, and his party now won;t let him squeeze his own voters to make up the shortfall. Richly deserved.
As one if the guilty parties in the bad language and insults game I would like to propose a truce.
OGH is on Daily Politics today and that is likely to drag in a lot of extra interest in the site. Given that a lot if us are regulars who want this site to survive and thrive can I suggest that for the next couple of days we try and get rid of the insults and swearing. I realise that for some of us - me included - that is like trying to get Father Jack to give up drink but I figure the last thing people want to see when get visit to see what we are about is insults and personal attacks.
Just a suggestion.
Well said.
But what when all these new visitors to the site discover they have been sold a false prospectus? Can't we at least still fight about the Punic Wars?
@gabyhinsliff: The more indignant Outers get about Project Fear, the more I conclude it's working. Winning sides don't moan about the other's tactics.
That's a fair summation, Leave know they have an uphill task and are on the defensive.
Fear won the Indyref and the General Election. There is every sign that it will do the same in the EU referendum.
This is not about a rational debate - it is about winning.
Quite
and Leave's best chances are either to get a set of arguments on why we;re better off out ( ie lie as much as the other side ) or change the vote to a referendum on something else like the UK establishment ( the french option )
It is very hard for Leave to deal conclusively with the fear factor since they have to convince people that bad things - loss of trade, visa restrictions, hordes of jihadis coming through Calais etc etc - would NOT happen. Remain, on the other hand, does not have to convince people that bad things WOULD happen if we left - all they have to do is arouse fears that they MIGHT happen. This is much easier. At the moment Leave seem to have no coherent response to this dilemma. Dismissing BMW and the French government (and anyone else they disagree with) as scaremongers is wholly unconvincing.
I think there's a good deal more cynicism towards the great and the good than there was, say, in 1975. So, I think the fear factor is less potent than it would once have been.
I'm not convinced about that - the idea that everyone is much more anti-establishment now is one of those notions that is widely-held but difficult to define and impossible to prove.
One way of looking at it would be to consider the percentage votes won by "establishment" parties - in Feb 74 the Tories and Labour won 75.1% between them. Last year, the Lib Dems having joined the hated "establishment," the Coalition parties and Labour garnered ...75.2%. So you could argue that the anti-establishment portion of the electorate has remained exactly the same for the past 40 years.
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Switzerland can expect no progress in talks with the European Union over migrant caps until after Britain's referendum on EU membership in June despite its urgent need for a deal, a senior Swiss official said on Friday.
Switzerland and the EU, its most important trading partner, have been deadlocked over how to implement a binding 2014 Swiss referendum in favor of immigration quotas that would violate a bilateral pact guaranteeing freedom of movement for EU citizens...
Switzerland is not obliged to pay social benefits to foreigners so the possible restriction of benefits that British Prime Minister David Cameron agreed with his fellow EU leaders at a summit last week would not help Berne.
@gabyhinsliff: The more indignant Outers get about Project Fear, the more I conclude it's working. Winning sides don't moan about the other's tactics.
That's a fair summation, Leave know they have an uphill task and are on the defensive.
Fear won the Indyref and the General Election. There is every sign that it will do the same in the EU referendum.
This is not about a rational debate - it is about winning.
Perhaps Leave are not being aggressive enough. They should be spreading fear about what will happen if we stay in. Its not as if there isn't enough ammunition.
Seriously, have you had a good hard look at the Mail, Express or Telegraph over recent months? And LEAVE have the brass neck to label possible negative consequences of BREXIT as "Project Fear"!
The problem LEAVE has is that hysterical misinformation churned out by the Eurosceptic press is not credible - that, I suspect is why Gove & Boris don't use their ammunition. Their duds and only the really hardcore outers buy it.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Not much if any maths in computer programming. And if you need something there will be a library for it, I have needed to show sales projections a few times recently and have used R to calculate them - we are much more integrationist than original coding now I think.
“I stand on a platform made of three pillars of financial ecology,” he began, I think. Unfortunately even my dictaphone fell asleep. “Reforming a national investment bank with strong communities and a break from failed orthodoxy and speculative finance with a lopsided economy that understand the importance of innovation and supporting small businesses.”
...By the time he was on to “the spirit of practical cooperation that drives local chambers of commerce” he was sharing a vegan space lasagne with Captain Tim Peake.
Then it was on to “innovative developers in their back gardens with glass ceilings”, an idea that once developed had carried him right out into open space, past the monkeys sitting diligently at their typewriters, before landing safely in a distant cosmos on an alternate Earth, where a chap called Jeremy Corbyn is gently but determinedly destroying the Labour Party without so much as a pause for breath.
Mrs Thatcher's government had that (sort of) for the long-term unemployed. I had to choose between a postgrad diploma in AI and six months of Unix and C. There were lots of non-computer courses too, iirc. Trouble is, the introduction of tuition fees makes it harder to repeat these offers, or would-be postgrads will game the system by leaving their jobs to qualify and save themselves £8,000 or whatever an MSc costs these days.
I took a free government course in UNIX and C back in those days. It wasn't a graduate course - you just had to pass an intelligence test and be out of work to get on it.
The traineers were from diverse backgrounds including a proefessional gambler, a musician who'd played bass for Johnny Thunders and an ex-copper.
It worked for me - I learnt enough to get a job as a programmer.
@gabyhinsliff: The more indignant Outers get about Project Fear, the more I conclude it's working. Winning sides don't moan about the other's tactics.
That's a fair summation, Leave know they have an uphill task and are on the defensive.
Fear won the Indyref and the General Election. There is every sign that it will do the same in the EU referendum.
This is not about a rational debate - it is about winning.
Quite
and Leave's best chances are either to get a set of arguments on why we;re better off out ( ie lie as much as the other side ) or change the vote to a referendum on something else like the UK establishment ( the french option )
It is very hard for Leave to deal conclusively with the fear factor since they have to convince people that bad things - loss of trade, visa restrictions, hordes of jihadis coming through Calais etc etc - would NOT happen. Remain, on the other hand, does not have to convince people that bad things WOULD happen if we left - all they have to do is arouse fears that they MIGHT happen. This is much easier. At the moment Leave seem to have no coherent response to this dilemma. Dismissing BMW and the French government (and anyone else they disagree with) as scaremongers is wholly unconvincing.
We are major beneficiaries to inward investment to the EU. Major. I lost count of the number of Evoques I saw in Spain recently. Jaguar Land Rovers generally. And small BMWs with British built engines. The Spanish (Seat) version is going to be made in the Czech Republic. This whole aspect of EU membership is callously ignored with careferee abandon by Leave. Leave with their real and not imagined Project Fear are only interested in swarms of migrants which have nothing to do with our membership of the EU.
Boris Johnson today launched a devastating new attack on David Cameron’s EU deal, saying it condemns Britain to be stuck “hook, line and sinker” in an un-reformed Europe.
In an interview with the Evening Standard, he said the country will have no bargaining power left if it votes to stay in the European Union on terms that meant “no real change”.
“We will never be able credibly to argue for any reform in Europe again,” he warned, adding Britain would be “the frog in the boiling saucepan of water”. He went on: “We will be signed up to this thing lock, stock and barrel — hook, line and sinker.”
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
I've reached the point where I think the atmosphere on PB is too unpleasant, at least for now, for me to keep reading the comments let alone to join in. There's no pleasure in it for me now and it's just wearing and tiring I'm not flouncing, just withdrawing.
See you all again sometime in the future, I hope, in better times.
As one if the guilty parties in the bad language and insults game I would like to propose a truce.
OGH is on Daily Politics today and that is likely to drag in a lot of extra interest in the site. Given that a lot if us are regulars who want this site to survive and thrive can I suggest that for the next couple of days we try and get rid of the insults and swearing. I realise that for some of us - me included - that is like trying to get Father Jack to give up drink but I figure the last thing people want to see when get visit to see what we are about is insults and personal attacks.
Smirker's only rowing back because there is now a viable alternative in Boris/Gove. He'd have been quite happy to hammer bedrock tory voters otherwise.
He has a horrible predicament now. He never cut remotely enough, and his party now won;t let him squeeze his own voters to make up the shortfall. Richly deserved.
There is an alternative by the way which is raising taxes. Taxes which are not so stealthy. You would think a government that had warned us endlessly about the horrors of the public finances would have prepared the ground nicely to raise taxes. Except they insisted they didn't need to raise any taxes in the election campaign. Hoist by his own petard.
Not much if any maths in computer programming. And if you need something there will be a library for it, I have needed to show sales projections a few times recently and have used R to calculate them - we are much more integrationist than original coding now I think.
I think that is a good point and key a difference between Computer Science and Computer Programming.
Programming is a lot about component assembly and maintenance / fixing of them.
Computer Science is more about developing new components and / or making step changes in the efficiency of existing techniques. And it is very maths heavy.
I think Cameron thought he could endlessly play dirty while the other side would hold their tongues. Well he pushed it too far and now IDS and BoJo are speaking freely. Good. I hope others follow.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
It is a long time ago now, when I was a very young lecturer at Imperial in the maths department I taught a lot of courses for computer science undergrads. I don't think the computer science degree added much of use day to day. The two best programers I know are an ex squaddie and an ex Plessey wireman. The generic computer science graduates came and went without leaving much trace.
Before the war you would have a 5 year apprenticeship in watch repairing - compressed to 6 months during the war. Why not 6 month courses in applicable software training, companies could sponser the course to match their needs. Commercial programming isn't an IQ test...
Mrs Thatcher's government had that (sort of) for the long-term unemployed. I had to choose between a postgrad diploma in AI and six months of Unix and C. There were lots of non-computer courses too, iirc. Trouble is, the introduction of tuition fees makes it harder to repeat these offers, or would-be postgrads will game the system by leaving their jobs to qualify and save themselves £8,000 or whatever an MSc costs these days.
An MSc course always cost £8000. You could argue it was gaming the system previously by taking it for free. As an interested question - is computer programming dependent on mathematics or scientific ability/knowledge? Is computer science really related to programming or does it lead to other fields of study/work?
It depends: 'computer programming' covers a vastly wide area. A friend of mine in this village works writing software for mathematicians (so obviously her maths has to be very good), whilst many 'programming' jobs are really software engineering, where you do everything from analysis through to testing on your little area. Although that's probably better termed 'software engineering'.
Often, being able to read, interpret and question (sometimes vague) specs is more important than pure coding skills, although that'll be controversial with some.
When I was working, I'd find I'd have to relearn some maths a couple of times every year when code touched on something I'd forgotten. Aside from that, it was mostly the basics. If you're doing assembler, then I'd say *really* good knowledge of different ways of achieving the same results in basic maths is vital. I.e. is it quicker to multiply by eight, or perform a barrel shift?
Not a single word in that article that the change would benefit millions ! That's the real problem with Osborne isn't it. No spine and absolubtely no balls whatsoever. He's not a leader, he dropped the Child tax stuff at the first whiff of gunpowder. Gove reformed the schools and is standing up for himself on Brexit; Hunt is showing the neccessary steel to drive the Doctors changes through. Osborne is USELESS, utterly USELESS.
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Switzerland can expect no progress in talks with the European Union over migrant caps until after Britain's referendum on EU membership in June despite its urgent need for a deal, a senior Swiss official said on Friday.
Switzerland and the EU, its most important trading partner, have been deadlocked over how to implement a binding 2014 Swiss referendum in favor of immigration quotas that would violate a bilateral pact guaranteeing freedom of movement for EU citizens...
Switzerland is not obliged to pay social benefits to foreigners so the possible restriction of benefits that British Prime Minister David Cameron agreed with his fellow EU leaders at a summit last week would not help Berne.
I used to have a lot of sympathy for Farage and I still think he has had some unfair coverage in the past about some of the things he said and did - e.g. things said in jest being treated as if he were being deadly serious, or the failure of Vote Leave and Leave.EU to merge being blamed on him , when it appears that Dominic Cummings and Matthew Elliot were at least as guilty of causing tensions btween the two campaign groups. But still, I have had enough of him - he should have left after the election and could have done so with his head held high, with Ukip having won around 4 million votes and coming third in terms of votes. He has done well to take the party as far as he has, but he has reached his ceiling and it is time for him to go.
With Labour under the unelectable Corbyn and the Conservatives facing their own difficulties with this referendum and the search for a new leader, this should be a golden opportunity for Ukip to pick up new votes and support. That is not going to happen with Farage in charge and the seemingly constant feuds between him and other senior party members.
It is a long time ago now, when I was a very young lecturer at Imperial in the maths department I taught a lot of courses for computer science undergrads. I don't think the computer science degree added much of use day to day. The two best programers I know are an ex squaddie and an ex Plessey wireman. The generic computer science graduates came and went without leaving much trace.
Before the war you would have a 5 year apprenticeship in watch repairing - compressed to 6 months during the war. Why not 6 month courses in applicable software training, companies could sponser the course to match their needs. Commercial programming isn't an IQ test...
Mrs Thatcher's government had that (sort of) for the long-term unemployed. I had to choose between a postgrad diploma in AI and six months of Unix and C. There were lots of non-computer courses too, iirc. Trouble is, the introduction of tuition fees makes it harder to repeat these offers, or would-be postgrads will game the system by leaving their jobs to qualify and save themselves £8,000 or whatever an MSc costs these days.
An MSc course always cost £8000. You could argue it was gaming the system previously by taking it for free. As an interested question - is computer programming dependent on mathematics or scientific ability/knowledge? Is computer science really related to programming or does it lead to other fields of study/work?
We should be careful not to confuse Computer Science and Computer Programming. Again, unfortunately many kids are mis-sold degrees under this guise.
Well said. I did Computer Science in 1980s. There was a separate degree at the time called Data Processing, which focused on data, databases, commercial systems, COBOL etc. Obviously there was a bit of cross-over.
A huge amount of my course was studying the science of computation e.g. maths, theory, stats, logic etc. Plenty of time was expected on programming as well however. We had to learn Pascal, C, Assembler, Fortran as well as obscure stuff like Snobol.
All of it was very interesting, but how much of all this was relevant in the world of work? Very little frankly. I had jobs as software engineer and mostly it was grunt coding work that did not require a degree.
@gabyhinsliff: The more indignant Outers get about Project Fear, the more I conclude it's working. Winning sides don't moan about the other's tactics.
That's a fair summation, Leave know they have an uphill task and are on the defensive.
Fear won the Indyref and the General Election. There is every sign that it will do the same in the EU referendum.
This is not about a rational debate - it is about winning.
Quite
and Leave's best chances are either to get a set of arguments on why we;re better off out ( ie lie as much as the other side ) or change the vote to a referendum on something else like the UK establishment ( the french option )
It is very hard for Leave to deal conclusively with the fear factor since they have to convince people that bad things - loss of trade, visa restrictions, hordes of jihadis coming through Calais etc etc - would NOT happen. Remain, on the other hand, does not have to convince people that bad things WOULD happen if we left - all they have to do is arouse fears that they MIGHT happen. This is much easier. At the moment Leave seem to have no coherent response to this dilemma. Dismissing BMW and the French government (and anyone else they disagree with) as scaremongers is wholly unconvincing.
We are major beneficiaries to inward investment to the EU. Major. I lost count of the number of Evoques I saw in Spain recently. Jaguar Land Rovers generally. And small BMWs with British built engines. The Spanish (Seat) version is going to be made in the Czech Republic. This whole aspect of EU membership is callously ignored with careferee abandon by Leave. Leave with their real and not imagined Project Fear are only interested in swarms of migrants which have nothing to do with our membership of the EU.
Boris Johnson today launched a devastating new attack on David Cameron’s EU deal, saying it condemns Britain to be stuck “hook, line and sinker” in an un-reformed Europe.
In an interview with the Evening Standard, he said the country will have no bargaining power left if it votes to stay in the European Union on terms that meant “no real change”.
“We will never be able credibly to argue for any reform in Europe again,” he warned, adding Britain would be “the frog in the boiling saucepan of water”. He went on: “We will be signed up to this thing lock, stock and barrel — hook, line and sinker.”
Interviews in the Evening Standard won't do it. Surely Boris of all people should understand the diminishing power of print. He needs to get himself on the TV and start leading from the front.
@gabyhinsliff: The more indignant Outers get about Project Fear, the more I conclude it's working. Winning sides don't moan about the other's tactics.
That's a fair summation, Leave know they have an uphill task and are on the defensive.
Fear won the Indyref and the General Election. There is every sign that it will do the same in the EU referendum.
This is not about a rational debate - it is about winning.
Quite
and Leave's best chances are either to get a set of arguments on why we;re better off out ( ie lie as much as the other side ) or change the vote to a referendum on something else like the UK establishment ( the french option )
nch government (and anyone else they disagree with) as scaremongers is wholly unconvincing.
I think there's a good deal more cynicism towards the great and the good than there was, say, in 1975. So, I think the fear factor is less potent than it would once have been.
But Leave aren't actively trading on that cynicism, so it's of limited value atm.
The problem is that the only people on the Leave side with any mass credibility potential are all part of the great and the good. The Mayor of London and cabinet ministers railing against the establishment would make themselves look ridiculous.
Do you ever get politicians with mass credibility outside the establishment?? Generally those with it generally join the establishment pretty quickly.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
Why are we getting so many of these pre-primary debates? I don't recall this happening on the same scale in earlier election cycles. Did Nixon debate with Rockerfeller and Reagan in 1968? Ford with Reagan in 1976? Reagan with Bush in 1980? Certainly not with the same frequency!
@gabyhinsliff: The more indignant Outers get about Project Fear, the more I conclude it's working. Winning sides don't moan about the other's tactics.
That's a fair summation, Leave know they have an uphill task and are on the defensive.
Fear won the Indyref and the General Election. There is every sign that it will do the same in the EU referendum.
This is not about a rational debate - it is about winning.
Quite
and Leave's best chances are either to get a set of arguments on why we;re better off out ( ie lie as much as the other side ) or change the vote to a referendum on something else like the UK establishment ( the french option )
It is very hard for Leave they disagree with) as scaremongers is wholly unconvincing.
They should be using the Mandy Rice Davies defence and then go on the attack as to why big business is lining it's pockets at everyone elses expense.
There is still a very surly mood following the recession that the economic fruits are not fairly distributed - tie that to EU porkbarelling and Leave could hack in to a huge slew of voters on the left,
My feeling is that 'Leave's' only chance is to ignore the scares and invent one of their own about immigrants. Farage has already done it but no one yet wants to be seen joining him in that sesspit. But it's all Leave have got that has any chance of gaining traction and though its plainly false never underestimate the power of blind prejudice. Remember Michael Howard and his Gypsies?
Nah Roger, the immigration argument has already been won for Leave they can refresh memories at any time. It would be like Germany invading Poland again because they're good at it.
They have to go on the attack on their opponents turf.and take on the eonomic argument. That means finding an angle that clicks with voters and puts Rewmain on the defensive.
What they haven't succeeded in doing is linking the the EU to a failing economy. To defeat the staus quo they need to find something people care about.
I like to think I’m a rational economist. Of course, like all of us, I make many choices based on intuition — but always coloured by my view that properly functioning markets are the route to prosperity. Whether the UK should remain in the European Union is a decision for all of us in which the head must surely prevail over the heart. So here’s my sober analysis of the economic factors that will guide me to vote ‘out’.
As one if the guilty parties in the bad language and insults game I would like to propose a truce.
OGH is on Daily Politics today and that is likely to drag in a lot of extra interest in the site. Given that a lot if us are regulars who want this site to survive and thrive can I suggest that for the next couple of days we try and get rid of the insults and swearing. I realise that for some of us - me included - that is like trying to get Father Jack to give up drink but I figure the last thing people want to see when get visit to see what we are about is insults and personal attacks.
Just a suggestion.
Turnip time over for today?
Its a fair call. However leavers need to ponder on what their (I think) unjustified personal attacks on Cameron and Osborne are achieving. To me it seems clear that the EU referendum is just seen as a mechanism to remove Cameron (a successful centrist regulation issue tory leader) and replace with anyone who can offer a comfort blanket of wilder tory extremes which will be laughed at by the electorate. The wild bigotry against Osborne also comes through loud and clear. This despite the broadly good job he has done to sustain the economy and the NHS and make cuts to spending. Someone earlier pointed to a poll which suggests the tory membership is not so inclined. I hope so. I am far from convinced that the hysteria whipped up amongst themselves by Leavers here is reflected in the wider public.
As an aside on the cuts to spending - these are clearly having a big effect on local govt and promoting some significant changes. In Oxfordshire there is a proposal to create unitary authorities which is perhaps unsurprisingly being opposed by the County authority. However the other interesting point is that these unitary authorities will or would incorporate neighbouring county areas. This suggests to me that local authority organisation is being radically reformed.
Boris Johnson today launched a devastating new attack on David Cameron’s EU deal, saying it condemns Britain to be stuck “hook, line and sinker” in an un-reformed Europe.
In an interview with the Evening Standard, he said the country will have no bargaining power left if it votes to stay in the European Union on terms that meant “no real change”.
“We will never be able credibly to argue for any reform in Europe again,” he warned, adding Britain would be “the frog in the boiling saucepan of water”. He went on: “We will be signed up to this thing lock, stock and barrel — hook, line and sinker.”
Interviews in the Evening Standard won't do it. Surely Boris of all people should understand the diminishing power of print. He needs to get himself on the TV and start leading from the front.
That is not the Boris way. Because he has lay and therefore has no mastery of detail he avoids press conferences and in-depth interviews like the plague. Sound bites, interviews in friendly newspapers, speeches and photo opportunities are what he does. If he doesn't change, though, he will never be PM or even an effective cabinet minister. The referendum is a good chance, but so far it is not happening.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
It's on film
For ever.
The stain stays with him for life.
No referendum is worth that.
Generations of Frenchmen will play it back and laugh in your face.
This is the game we play after every Republican debate: the mainstream press corps finds some tortured explanation for why Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz won, and then days later Donald Trump rises in the polls. In a night where CNN ran a headline reading “Donald Trump defends size of his penis,” the man has probably won yet again.
The same was true of last night. The very reason why conventional wisdom .
Jack W. How do you rate Trump's current odds in terms of value?
GOP nominee 1.53-1.54 POTUS 4.9-5.0
The nominee odds look too skinny. It'll be Trump unless he marginally falls short and a brokered convention ensues. With many winner takes all primaries looming and Trump's poll numbers holding up a brokered convention looks vanishingly unlikely.
The POTUS odds remain value as a trading bet. There's bound to be a shortening movement during the campaign. The trick, as ever, will be when to cash in.
Jack how is your ARSE looking in terms of DTWNBPOTUS against DTICIPOTUS?
In fine shape.
Clearly we're still a few months away from the formal unveiling of my ARSE for POTUS and there are some internals to be worked on but I hope as usual to provide an unparalleled and exclusive service to the PB community as in 08 and 12.
Notwithstanding the above I can confidently confirm that for 2016 :
Donald Trump Will Not Be Elected President of The United States
DTWNBEPOTUS
When do you anticipate the first exertions of your EuroARSE? I am on tenterhooks.
End of the month. A little later than I'd hoped ....
A little Easter egg to look forward to!
My ARSE based bets did very well in the Sindyref and GE. US betting I find rather tricky, their politrix are so different to our own.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
Quite.
Fear hasn't even got to first base.
By the time we get to 23 June Remain will have scared the pants off as many people as possible and, on current evidence, Leave will have no coherent response.
Well said. I did Computer Science in 1980s. There was a separate degree at the time called Data Processing, which focused on data, databases, commercial systems, COBOL etc. Obviously there was a bit of cross-over.
A huge amount of my course was studying the science of computation e.g. maths, theory, stats, logic etc. Plenty of time was expected on programming as well however. We had to learn Pascal, C, Assembler, Fortran as well as obscure stuff like Snobol.
All of it was very interesting, but how much of all this was relevant in the world of work? Very little frankly. I had jobs as software engineer and mostly it was grunt coding work that did not require a degree.
I warn kids of today a lot about this when considering which uni / degree course, as I firmly believe that just like semi-skilled / mid level manufacturing jobs are now all in China, "grunt" coding work will follow the same path (it already is tbh). There will still be demand for highly skilled high educated, but even today increasingly you are seeing places like Eastern Europe growing for this kind of work. Actually that is harsh on Eastern Europe, they are doing a lot more than just grunt work, and doing it a lot better than out sourcing to India.
F1: Hamilton's Mercedes had a transmission issue, causing a red flag.
This is actually news, as the Mercedes has been so relentlessly reliable the team has been forced to split each day between the two drivers, to stop them getting too tired before the Australian Grand Prix.
And it might be the best hope for a non-Silver Arrow to win a race. [But I wouldn't put money on that].
I've reached the point where I think the atmosphere on PB is too unpleasant, at least for now, for me to keep reading the comments let alone to join in. There's no pleasure in it for me now and it's just wearing and tiring I'm not flouncing, just withdrawing.
See you all again sometime in the future, I hope, in better times.
I agree its tiring. Some people on here just spend their whole time saying people they disagree with are clueless or xenophobes or idiots. Didn't their mothers teach them any manners??
@gabyhinsliff: The more indignant Outers get about Project Fear, the more I conclude it's working. Winning sides don't moan about the other's tactics.
That's a fair summation, Leave know they have an uphill task and are on the defensive.
Fear won the Indyref and the General Election. There is every sign that it will do the same in the EU referendum.
This is not about a rational debate - it is about winning.
Quite
and Leave's best chances are either to get a set of arguments on why we;re better off out ( ie lie as much as the other side ) or change the vote to a referendum on something else like the UK establishment ( the french option )
It is very hard for Leave they disagree with) as scaremongers is wholly unconvincing.
They should be using the Mandy Rice Davies defence and then go on the attack as to why big business is lining it's pockets at everyone elses expense.
There is still a very surly mood following the recession that the economic fruits are not fairly distributed - tie that to EU porkbarelling and Leave could hack in to a huge slew of voters on the left,
My feeling is that 'Leave's' only chance is to ignore the scares and invent one of their own about immigrants. Farage has already done it but no one yet wants to be seen joining him in that sesspit. But it's all Leave have got that has any chance of gaining traction and though its plainly false never underestimate the power of blind prejudice. Remember Michael Howard and his Gypsies?
Nah Roger, the immigration argument has already been won for Leave they can refresh memories at any time. It would be like Germany invading Poland again because they're good at it.
They have to go on the attack on their opponents turf.and take on the eonomic argument. That means finding an angle that clicks with voters and puts Rewmain on the defensive.
What they haven't succeeded in doing is linking the the EU to a failing economy. To defeat the staus quo they need to find something people care about.
Boris Johnson today launched a devastating new attack on David Cameron’s EU deal, saying it condemns Britain to be stuck “hook, line and sinker” in an un-reformed Europe.
In an interview with the Evening Standard, he said the country will have no bargaining power left if it votes to stay in the European Union on terms that meant “no real change”.
“We will never be able credibly to argue for any reform in Europe again,” he warned, adding Britain would be “the frog in the boiling saucepan of water”. He went on: “We will be signed up to this thing lock, stock and barrel — hook, line and sinker.”
Interviews in the Evening Standard won't do it. Surely Boris of all people should understand the diminishing power of print. He needs to get himself on the TV and start leading from the front.
That is not the Boris way. Because he has lay and therefore has no mastery of detail he avoids press conferences and in-depth interviews like the plague. Sound bites, interviews in friendly newspapers, speeches and photo opportunities are what he does. If he doesn't change, though, he will never be PM or even an effective cabinet minister. The referendum is a good chance, but so far it is not happening.
The fact that he is still Mayor at the moment, might also have something to do with it.
I like to think I’m a rational economist. Of course, like all of us, I make many choices based on intuition — but always coloured by my view that properly functioning markets are the route to prosperity. Whether the UK should remain in the European Union is a decision for all of us in which the head must surely prevail over the heart. So here’s my sober analysis of the economic factors that will guide me to vote ‘out’.
Warwick Lightfoot is a made up name. The real Warwick Lightfoot was at the court of King Arthur.
Obviously the Carswell-Evans-O'Flynn axis is the key internal opposition to Farage. Where are the other senior Kippers (e.g. Nuttall, Wolfe, James) positioned?
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
It's on film
For ever.
The stain stays with him for life.
No referendum is worth that.
Generations of Frenchmen will play it back and laugh in your face.
I'll always have Waterloo, Agincourt, and Mers-el-Kébir
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
It's on film
For ever.
The stain stays with him for life.
No referendum is worth that.
Generations of Frenchmen will play it back and laugh in your face.
I'll always have Waterloo, Agincourt, and Mers-el-Kébir
There is a lot of sound and fury at present with remain being accused of project fear and leave crying foul without actually addressing the issues. IDS speaking out and threatening cohesion with the party may make him feel better but in the end the party will not seek David Cameron resignation no matter what the result as seen in the this poll - 'Among Conservative party members there is very little call for Cameron to make an early departure – only 20% think he should step down in 2016 or 2017 (roughly the same proportion as think he should change his mind and contest the next election – the majority think he should stay till at least 2019)'. In the wider party membership the expectation will be that parties on both sides accept the result and come together to govern the Country. Anyone who thinks a mutiny by some will succeed will be disregarding the membership greater desire at their peril.
Boris Johnson today launched a devastating new attack on David Cameron’s EU deal, saying it condemns Britain to be stuck “hook, line and sinker” in an un-reformed Europe.
In an interview with the Evening Standard, he said the country will have no bargaining power left if it votes to stay in the European Union on terms that meant “no real change”.
“We will never be able credibly to argue for any reform in Europe again,” he warned, adding Britain would be “the frog in the boiling saucepan of water”. He went on: “We will be signed up to this thing lock, stock and barrel — hook, line and sinker.”
Interviews in the Evening Standard won't do it. Surely Boris of all people should understand the diminishing power of print. He needs to get himself on the TV and start leading from the front.
That is not the Boris way. Because he has lay and therefore has no mastery of detail he avoids press conferences and in-depth interviews like the plague. Sound bites, interviews in friendly newspapers, speeches and photo opportunities are what he does. If he doesn't change, though, he will never be PM or even an effective cabinet minister. The referendum is a good chance, but so far it is not happening.
I think that's why Boris has his eye on becoming Dave's chancellor rather than PM if Leave wins. It will set him up well for when Dave stands down a year or so later. In a post-Leave leadership vote Boris might not even make the final round because a lot of Tory MPs have the same thoughts you do. Getting real Cabinet experience in a top job would ease their concerns.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
It's on film
For ever.
The stain stays with him for life.
No referendum is worth that.
Generations of Frenchmen will play it back and laugh in your face.
I'll always have Waterloo, Agincourt, and Mers-el-Kébir
Tu veux voir la salope du President ?
He's no-one's bitch. Well maybe a rump of pig's bitch.
Well said. I did Computer Science in 1980s. There was a separate degree at the time called Data Processing, which focused on data, databases, commercial systems, COBOL etc. Obviously there was a bit of cross-over.
A huge amount of my course was studying the science of computation e.g. maths, theory, stats, logic etc. Plenty of time was expected on programming as well however. We had to learn Pascal, C, Assembler, Fortran as well as obscure stuff like Snobol.
All of it was very interesting, but how much of all this was relevant in the world of work? Very little frankly. I had jobs as software engineer and mostly it was grunt coding work that did not require a degree.
I warn kids of today a lot about this when considering which uni / degree course, as I firmly believe that just like semi-skilled / mid level manufacturing jobs are now all in China, "grunt" coding work will follow the same path (it already is tbh). There will still be demand for highly skilled high educated, but even today increasingly you are seeing places like Eastern Europe growing for this kind of work. Actually that is harsh on Eastern Europe, they are doing a lot more than just grunt work, and doing it a lot better than out sourcing to India.
Nick Cohen wrote an excellent piece recently on Universities touting qualifications for which there is little prospect of good employment. Degree mis-selling, he called it.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
It's on film n your face.
I'll always have Waterloo, Agincourt, and Mers-el-Kébir
Tu veux voir la salope du President ?
He's no-one's bitch. Well maybe a rump of pig's bitch.
His legacy will be like that of the Emperor Valerian.
George Osborne is under pressure to stage a double retreat on pensions and party funding in this month’s Budget to strip away “barnacles” during the EU referendum, say ministers.
The Chancellor is set to shelve both a raid on pension pots and a cut to state funding given to Labour and other opposition parties.
Conservative MPs are threatening a revolt if he attempts to cut tax relief on pension contributions for 40 per cent rate taxpayers and offers a flat rate of relief at, say 25 per cent, for everyone.
Mr Johnson told of his frustration that EU regulations stopped him from doing his job effectively as Mayor. He revealed that City Hall was almost forced to spend hundreds of millions on digging wider tunnels for Crossrail 1 so German trains could use them.
“What a load of cobblers,” he said. “You are not going to get German trains running on Crossrail.” He criticised regulations for blocking him from requiring safer lorries “because Renault doesn’t yet have its models ready”. “So, female cyclists get crushed because those tipper trucks are not designed to save lives,” said the Mayor.
George Osborne is under pressure to stage a double retreat on pensions and party funding in this month’s Budget to strip away “barnacles” during the EU referendum, say ministers.
The Chancellor is set to shelve both a raid on pension pots and a cut to state funding given to Labour and other opposition parties.
Conservative MPs are threatening a revolt if he attempts to cut tax relief on pension contributions for 40 per cent rate taxpayers and offers a flat rate of relief at, say 25 per cent, for everyone.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
It's on film
For ever.
The stain stays with him for life.
No referendum is worth that.
Generations of Frenchmen will play it back and laugh in your face.
I'll always have Waterloo, Agincourt, and Mers-el-Kébir
Tu veux voir la salope du President ?
He's no-one's bitch. Well maybe a rump of pig's bitch.
Hmm, his boot licking of Hollande yesterday is evidence to the contrary. It's sad that the fairly popular British PM is out licking the boots (and balls) of far more unpopular leaders like Hollande and Merkel.
If Dave realised that the political implications of leaving for him are probably a net gain (as a Tory) the deal would have been much better, but Osborne is just absolutely poisonous because Leave destroys his career and chances of ever being PM.
Mr. Whaley, things have been grumpier than usual around here, of late, but do come back soon.
Not helped by the inability of a select few to see any fault what so ever in the PM. Just about all the kippers and kipper inclined have been critical, sometimes severely so, of Farage. Very few of the left have much good to say about Corbyn, and yet when Dave starts embarrassing himself by prostrating himself before other leaders, or running around telling the most blatant porkies, they won't hear a word said against him - some haven't even brought themselves to admit that we actually paid in full that "appalling" £1.7bn that he said he would never pay. Its not loyalty so much as acute myopia.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
It's on film n your face.
I'll always have Waterloo, Agincourt, and Mers-el-Kébir
Tu veux voir la salope du President ?
He's no-one's bitch. Well maybe a rump of pig's bitch.
His legacy will be like that of the Emperor Valerian.
Dave will make an excellent human foot stool. He's awesome at everything.
I did do a thread comparing Nick Clegg to Valerian
I agree its tiring. Some people on here just spend their whole time saying people they disagree with are clueless or xenophobes or idiots. Didn't their mothers teach them any manners??
I don't know... but I don't think they'd say such things face to face. We all lose the plot on here from time to time - but this level of it is ridiculous.
Well said. I did Computer Science in 1980s. There was a separate degree at the time called Data Processing, which focused on data, databases, commercial systems, COBOL etc. Obviously there was a bit of cross-over.
A huge amount of my course was studying the science of computation e.g. maths, theory, stats, logic etc. Plenty of time was expected on programming as well however. We had to learn Pascal, C, Assembler, Fortran as well as obscure stuff like Snobol.
All of it was very interesting, but how much of all this was relevant in the world of work? Very little frankly. I had jobs as software engineer and mostly it was grunt coding work that did not require a degree.
I warn kids of today a lot about this when considering which uni / degree course, as I firmly believe that just like semi-skilled / mid level manufacturing jobs are now all in China, "grunt" coding work will follow the same path (it already is tbh). There will still be demand for highly skilled high educated, but even today increasingly you are seeing places like Eastern Europe growing for this kind of work. Actually that is harsh on Eastern Europe, they are doing a lot more than just grunt work, and doing it a lot better than out sourcing to India.
I'd agree. Although I know some excellent Indian engineers working in the EU, UK and US, none of the projects I've seen outsourced to India have gone well - one was an almost biblical disaster. The few I've seen outsourced to Eastern Europe have been much more successful. But beware anecdata ...
If that's a common problem, the question becomes why? Do all the good engineers leave India, or is it that Indian management hinders their engineers? I'd say it's a bit of both, with a heavier emphasis on the latter.
(I've also known two stellar Russian engineers. It's time that country actually started using their engineers rather than exporting them).
Well said. I did Computer Science in 1980s. There was a separate degree at the time called Data Processing, which focused on data, databases, commercial systems, COBOL etc. Obviously there was a bit of cross-over.
A huge amount of my course was studying the science of computation e.g. maths, theory, stats, logic etc. Plenty of time was expected on programming as well however. We had to learn Pascal, C, Assembler, Fortran as well as obscure stuff like Snobol.
All of it was very interesting, but how much of all this was relevant in the world of work? Very little frankly. I had jobs as software engineer and mostly it was grunt coding work that did not require a degree.
I warn kids of today a lot about this when considering which uni / degree course, as I firmly believe that just like semi-skilled / mid level manufacturing jobs are now all in China, "grunt" coding work will follow the same path (it already is tbh). There will still be demand for highly skilled high educated, but even today increasingly you are seeing places like Eastern Europe growing for this kind of work. Actually that is harsh on Eastern Europe, they are doing a lot more than just grunt work, and doing it a lot better than out sourcing to India.
I'd agree. Although I know some excellent Indian engineers working in the EU, UK and US, none of the projects I've seen outsourced to India have gone well - one was an almost biblical disaster. The few I've seen outsourced to Eastern Europe have been much more successful. But beware anecdata ...
If that's a common problem, the question becomes why? Do all the good engineers leave India, or is it that Indian management hinders their engineers? I'd say it's a bit of both, with a heavier emphasis on the latter.
(I've also known two stellar Russian engineers. It's time that country actually started using their engineers rather than exporting them).
Boris Johnson today launched a devastating new attack on David Cameron’s EU deal, saying it condemns Britain to be stuck “hook, line and sinker” in an un-reformed Europe.
In an interview with the Evening Standard, he said the country will have no bargaining power left if it votes to stay in the European Union on terms that meant “no real change”.
“We will never be able credibly to argue for any reform in Europe again,” he warned, adding Britain would be “the frog in the boiling saucepan of water”. He went on: “We will be signed up to this thing lock, stock and barrel — hook, line and sinker.”
Interviews in the Evening Standard won't do it. Surely Boris of all people should understand the diminishing power of print. He needs to get himself on the TV and start leading from the front.
That is not the Boris way. Because he has lay and therefore has no mastery of detail he avoids press conferences and in-depth interviews like the plague. Sound bites, interviews in friendly newspapers, speeches and photo opportunities are what he does. If he doesn't change, though, he will never be PM or even an effective cabinet minister. The referendum is a good chance, but so far it is not happening.
The fact that he is still Mayor at the moment, might also have something to do with it.
Mayor, MP, columnist ...
He has never let being Mayor get in the way of anything up to now.
This is the game we play after every Republican debate: the mainstream press corps finds some tortured explanation for why Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz won, and then days later Donald Trump rises in the polls. In a night where CNN ran a headline reading “Donald Trump defends size of his penis,” the man has probably won yet again.
The same was true of last night. The very reason why conventional wisdom .
Jack W. How do you rate Trump's current odds in terms of value?
GOP nominee 1.53-1.54 POTUS 4.9-5.0
The nominee odds look too skinny. It'll be Trump unless he marginally falls short and a brokered convention ensues. With many winner takes all primaries looming and Trump's poll numbers holding up a brokered convention looks vanishingly unlikely.
The POTUS odds remain value as a trading bet. There's bound to be a shortening movement during the campaign. The trick, as ever, will be when to cash in.
Jack how is your ARSE looking in terms of DTWNBPOTUS against DTICIPOTUS?
In fine shape.
Clearly we're still a few months away from the formal unveiling of my ARSE for POTUS and there are some internals to be worked on but I hope as usual to provide an unparalleled and exclusive service to the PB community as in 08 and 12.
Notwithstanding the above I can confidently confirm that for 2016 :
Donald Trump Will Not Be Elected President of The United States
DTWNBEPOTUS
When do you anticipate the first exertions of your EuroARSE? I am on tenterhooks.
End of the month. A little later than I'd hoped ....
A little Easter egg to look forward to!
My ARSE based bets did very well in the Sindyref and GE. US betting I find rather tricky, their politrix are so different to our own.
My ARSE lays golden eggs ....
My success in the POTUS 08 and 12 was based on diligent research, political instinct that seems to travel over the pond, a forecast model correctly amending for poll bias, differential turnout and accurate state demographics and the ability to ignore US pundits aligned to one side or the other.
Well said. I did Computer Science in 1980s. There was a separate degree at the time called Data Processing, which focused on data, databases, commercial systems, COBOL etc. Obviously there was a bit of cross-over.
A huge amount of my course was studying the science of computation e.g. maths, theory, stats, logic etc. Plenty of time was expected on programming as well however. We had to learn Pascal, C, Assembler, Fortran as well as obscure stuff like Snobol.
All of it was very interesting, but how much of all this was relevant in the world of work? Very little frankly. I had jobs as software engineer and mostly it was grunt coding work that did not require a degree.
I warn kids of today a lot about this when considering which uni / degree course, as I firmly believe that just like semi-skilled / mid level manufacturing jobs are now all in China, "grunt" coding work will follow the same path (it already is tbh). There will still be demand for highly skilled high educated, but even today increasingly you are seeing places like Eastern Europe growing for this kind of work. Actually that is harsh on Eastern Europe, they are doing a lot more than just grunt work, and doing it a lot better than out sourcing to India.
I'd agree. Although I know some excellent Indian engineers working in the EU, UK and US, none of the projects I've seen outsourced to India have gone well - one was an almost biblical disaster. The few I've seen outsourced to Eastern Europe have been much more successful. But beware anecdata ...
If that's a common problem, the question becomes why? Do all the good engineers leave India, or is it that Indian management hinders their engineers? I'd say it's a bit of both, with a heavier emphasis on the latter.
(I've also known two stellar Russian engineers. It's time that country actually started using their engineers rather than exporting them).
Speaking to people in a number of industries that have outsourced to India they always say getting good management is a big problem.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
It's on film n your face.
I'll always have Waterloo, Agincourt, and Mers-el-Kébir
Tu veux voir la salope du President ?
He's no-one's bitch. Well maybe a rump of pig's bitch.
His legacy will be like that of the Emperor Valerian.
Dave will make an excellent human foot stool. He's awesome at everything.
I did do a thread comparing Nick Clegg to Valerian
Like Valerian Dave;s just been skinned. His empty pelt will be used to decorate the Elyssee Palace.
I like to think I’m a rational economist. Of course, like all of us, I make many choices based on intuition — but always coloured by my view that properly functioning markets are the route to prosperity. Whether the UK should remain in the European Union is a decision for all of us in which the head must surely prevail over the heart. So here’s my sober analysis of the economic factors that will guide me to vote ‘out’.
Warwick Lightfoot is a made up name. The real Warwick Lightfoot was at the court of King Arthur.
F1: Hamilton's Mercedes had a transmission issue, causing a red flag.
This is actually news, as the Mercedes has been so relentlessly reliable the team has been forced to split each day between the two drivers, to stop them getting too tired before the Australian Grand Prix.
And it might be the best hope for a non-Silver Arrow to win a race. [But I wouldn't put money on that].
Are they sure it's a transmission issue, and not just a run-the-car-out-of-fuel test the teams seem to do each season?
BTW, the new HALO head-protection system looks awful. Perhaps enough to stop me watching F1if they bring it in.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
It's on film
For ever.
The stain stays with him for life.
No referendum is worth that.
Generations of Frenchmen will play it back and laugh in your face.
I'll always have Waterloo, Agincourt, and Mers-el-Kébir
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
It's on film
For ever.
The stain stays with him for life.
No referendum is worth that.
Generations of Frenchmen will play it back and laugh in your face.
I'll always have Waterloo, Agincourt, and Mers-el-Kébir
Well said. I did Computer Science in 1980s. There was a separate degree at the time called Data Processing, which focused on data, databases, commercial systems, COBOL etc. Obviously there was a bit of cross-over.
A huge amount of my course was studying the science of computation e.g. maths, theory, stats, logic etc. Plenty of time was expected on programming as well however. We had to learn Pascal, C, Assembler, Fortran as well as obscure stuff like Snobol.
All of it was very interesting, but how much of all this was relevant in the world of work? Very little frankly. I had jobs as software engineer and mostly it was grunt coding work that did not require a degree.
I warn kids of today a lot about this when considering which uni / degree course, as I firmly believe that just like semi-skilled / mid level manufacturing jobs are now all in China, "grunt" coding work will follow the same path (it already is tbh). There will still be demand for highly skilled high educated, but even today increasingly you are seeing places like Eastern Europe growing for this kind of work. Actually that is harsh on Eastern Europe, they are doing a lot more than just grunt work, and doing it a lot better than out sourcing to India.
I'd agree. Although I know some excellent Indian engineers working in the EU, UK and US, none of the projects I've seen outsourced to India have gone well - one was an almost biblical disaster. The few I've seen outsourced to Eastern Europe have been much more successful. But beware anecdata ...
If that's a common problem, the question becomes why? Do all the good engineers leave India, or is it that Indian management hinders their engineers? I'd say it's a bit of both, with a heavier emphasis on the latter.
(I've also known two stellar Russian engineers. It's time that country actually started using their engineers rather than exporting them).
Speaking to people in a number of industries that have outsourced to India they always say getting good management is a big problem.
Take it the "biblical disaster" was the NHS IT project.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
It's on film n your face.
I'll always have Waterloo, Agincourt, and Mers-el-Kébir
Tu veux voir la salope du President ?
He's no-one's bitch. Well maybe a rump of pig's bitch.
His legacy will be like that of the Emperor Valerian.
Dave will make an excellent human foot stool. He's awesome at everything.
I did do a thread comparing Nick Clegg to Valerian
Like Valerian Dave;s just been skinned. His empty pelt will be used to decorate the Elyssee Palace.
Spare a thought for me, when Dave finally goes. This is what I'll be like on that sad day.
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
and Nicole says "what after yesterday ? Francois a mate of mine"
It's good we have excellent relations with the French.
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
Nah like Sir Humphrey Appleby I understand the real reason why we need to retain a nuclear detrrent. :-)
Same here.
so how do you account for our PMs behaviour yesterday ?
Chap's got a referendum to win and he's a ruthless bugger.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
It's on film
For ever.
The stain stays with him for life.
No referendum is worth that.
Generations of Frenchmen will play it back and laugh in your face.
I'll always have Waterloo, Agincourt, and Mers-el-Kébir
Not sure the last is anything to be proud of!
Helped us to win World War II
Maybe, but could probably have been avoided, with 1000 or so lives saved.
Well said. I did Computer Science in 1980s. There was a separate degree at the time called Data Processing, which focused on data, databases, commercial systems, COBOL etc. Obviously there was a bit of cross-over.
A huge amount of my course was studying the science of computation e.g. maths, theory, stats, logic etc. Plenty of time was expected on programming as well however. We had to learn Pascal, C, Assembler, Fortran as well as obscure stuff like Snobol.
All of it was very interesting, but how much of all this was relevant in the world of work? Very little frankly. I had jobs as software engineer and mostly it was grunt coding work that did not require a degree.
I warn kids of today a lot about this when considering which uni / degree course, as I firmly believe that just like semi-skilled / mid level manufacturing jobs are now all in China, "grunt" coding work will follow the same path (it already is tbh). There will still be demand for highly skilled high educated, but even today increasingly you are seeing places like Eastern Europe growing for this kind of work. Actually that is harsh on Eastern Europe, they are doing a lot more than just grunt work, and doing it a lot better than out sourcing to India.
I'd agree. Although I know some excellent Indian engineers working in the EU, UK and US, none of the projects I've seen outsourced to India have gone well - one was an almost biblical disaster. The few I've seen outsourced to Eastern Europe have been much more successful. But beware anecdata ...
If that's a common problem, the question becomes why? Do all the good engineers leave India, or is it that Indian management hinders their engineers? I'd say it's a bit of both, with a heavier emphasis on the latter.
(I've also known two stellar Russian engineers. It's time that country actually started using their engineers rather than exporting them).
Thanks. Sadly I'm still unwell - it seems that alongside the headaches and tinnitus, I've got some slight issues with my short-term memory. Silly little things like going to the shop and forgetting everything I went for, but getting loads of stuff I didn't really need. Time will tell if they'll improve or stay the same, but it's certainly very *different* to how I was before.
My life has become a sticky-note fest. I feel a bit like Leonard Shelby.
For this reason, I'm not in the best position to argue about politics. Now, what was I saying...
The ideal is to be customer facing and have your own customers, not easy and you will only have a few chances to do it. On Friday nights when you pour your first gin and tonic, spend some time thinking about your interests. You can be sure the firm you work for won't be thinking of you.
Comments
Lots of Labour fewer Tories.
Harry Cole
So UKIP: Local gov spksm Peter Reeve has been replaced David Sprason - who had to quit job after leaving porn DVD in council laptop.
Take a look at the US Pres market now.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419
It is somewhat infantile to think that in the modern world (sorry to bring that up) a 'free trade' agreement is just about tariffs.
As you look around you see it is about more than that, it is for instance about the ability of one nation's companies to compete in another's. This is what the EU free market is about and its about what America for one country is trying to do with its free trade agreements. Australia does not feel well served by the one it agreed with the much larger USA.
Ultimately the Leavers are banging on about some very small differences to our relationships as they would be in the real world.
He has a horrible predicament now. He never cut remotely enough, and his party now won;t let him squeeze his own voters to make up the shortfall. Richly deserved.
You can take the man out of Gordon Brown,
but you'll probably need a crane and jib to do so.
One way of looking at it would be to consider the percentage votes won by "establishment" parties - in Feb 74 the Tories and Labour won 75.1% between them. Last year, the Lib Dems having joined the hated "establishment," the Coalition parties and Labour garnered ...75.2%. So you could argue that the anti-establishment portion of the electorate has remained exactly the same for the past 40 years.
Switzerland and the EU, its most important trading partner, have been deadlocked over how to implement a binding 2014 Swiss referendum in favor of immigration quotas that would violate a bilateral pact guaranteeing freedom of movement for EU citizens...
Switzerland is not obliged to pay social benefits to foreigners so the possible restriction of benefits that British Prime Minister David Cameron agreed with his fellow EU leaders at a summit last week would not help Berne.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0VZ1OU
David Cameron tells the SNP:" End the grudge, the gripe and the grievance and start to govern Scotland."
The problem LEAVE has is that hysterical misinformation churned out by the Eurosceptic press is not credible - that, I suspect is why Gove & Boris don't use their ammunition. Their duds and only the really hardcore outers buy it.
If ever a username has been misappropriated it's this one!
Entente Cordiale and all that jazz. I hope you're not one of those little Englanders that keep on mocking the French and want them to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sketch-talking-in-a-ramble-and-dressed-like-a-rambler-jeremy-corbyn-told-british-business-people-a6909911.html
The traineers were from diverse backgrounds including a proefessional gambler, a musician who'd played bass for Johnny Thunders and an ex-copper.
It worked for me - I learnt enough to get a job as a programmer.
The Spanish (Seat) version is going to be made in the Czech Republic.
This whole aspect of EU membership is callously ignored with careferee abandon by Leave. Leave with their real and not imagined Project Fear are only interested in swarms of migrants which have nothing to do with our membership of the EU.
In an interview with the Evening Standard, he said the country will have no bargaining power left if it votes to stay in the European Union on terms that meant “no real change”.
“We will never be able credibly to argue for any reform in Europe again,” he warned, adding Britain would be “the frog in the boiling saucepan of water”. He went on: “We will be signed up to this thing lock, stock and barrel — hook, line and sinker.”
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-launches-scathing-attack-on-camerons-eu-deal-a3195656.html
See you all again sometime in the future, I hope, in better times.
Would be great if it led to a lasting peace.
Programming is a lot about component assembly and maintenance / fixing of them.
Computer Science is more about developing new components and / or making step changes in the efficiency of existing techniques. And it is very maths heavy.
Often, being able to read, interpret and question (sometimes vague) specs is more important than pure coding skills, although that'll be controversial with some.
When I was working, I'd find I'd have to relearn some maths a couple of times every year when code touched on something I'd forgotten. Aside from that, it was mostly the basics. If you're doing assembler, then I'd say *really* good knowledge of different ways of achieving the same results in basic maths is vital. I.e. is it quicker to multiply by eight, or perform a barrel shift?
That's the real problem with Osborne isn't it.
No spine and absolubtely no balls whatsoever.
He's not a leader, he dropped the Child tax stuff at the first whiff of gunpowder.
Gove reformed the schools and is standing up for himself on Brexit; Hunt is showing the neccessary steel to drive the Doctors changes through.
Osborne is USELESS, utterly USELESS.
Gardens with glass ceilings? A conservatory? Financial ecology???
Clearly no one with previous experience of writing anything for public consumption.
I used to have a lot of sympathy for Farage and I still think he has had some unfair coverage in the past about some of the things he said and did - e.g. things said in jest being treated as if he were being deadly serious, or the failure of Vote Leave and Leave.EU to merge being blamed on him , when it appears that Dominic Cummings and Matthew Elliot were at least as guilty of causing tensions btween the two campaign groups. But still, I have had enough of him - he should have left after the election and could have done so with his head held high, with Ukip having won around 4 million votes and coming third in terms of votes. He has done well to take the party as far as he has, but he has reached his ceiling and it is time for him to go.
With Labour under the unelectable Corbyn and the Conservatives facing their own difficulties with this referendum and the search for a new leader, this should be a golden opportunity for Ukip to pick up new votes and support. That is not going to happen with Farage in charge and the seemingly constant feuds between him and other senior party members.
A huge amount of my course was studying the science of computation e.g. maths, theory, stats, logic etc. Plenty of time was expected on programming as well however. We had to learn Pascal, C, Assembler, Fortran as well as obscure stuff like Snobol.
All of it was very interesting, but how much of all this was relevant in the world of work? Very little frankly. I had jobs as software engineer and mostly it was grunt coding work that did not require a degree.
Zonk fest for the masses.
During the AV referendum his side said AV would put the lives of babies at risk.
This is nothing.
Think banning Touregs from Ludlow High St.....
Kansas (on analogy to Oklahoma - which was a big upset)
Cruz 32% Trump 28% Rubio 25%
Kentucky (on analogy to Georgia)
Trump 36% Cruz 23% Rubio 23%
Louisiana (recent polls)
Trump 40% Cruz 25% Rubio 15%
Maine (on analogy to Vermont)
Trump 33% Kasich 28% Rubio 19% Cruz 13%
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/a-sober-economic-analysis-shows-that-brexit-is-best/
However leavers need to ponder on what their (I think) unjustified personal attacks on Cameron and Osborne are achieving. To me it seems clear that the EU referendum is just seen as a mechanism to remove Cameron (a successful centrist regulation issue tory leader) and replace with anyone who can offer a comfort blanket of wilder tory extremes which will be laughed at by the electorate. The wild bigotry against Osborne also comes through loud and clear. This despite the broadly good job he has done to sustain the economy and the NHS and make cuts to spending. Someone earlier pointed to a poll which suggests the tory membership is not so inclined. I hope so. I am far from convinced that the hysteria whipped up amongst themselves by Leavers here is reflected in the wider public.
As an aside on the cuts to spending - these are clearly having a big effect on local govt and promoting some significant changes.
In Oxfordshire there is a proposal to create unitary authorities which is perhaps unsurprisingly being opposed by the County authority. However the other interesting point is that these unitary authorities will or would incorporate neighbouring county areas. This suggests to me that local authority organisation is being radically reformed.
For ever.
The stain stays with him for life.
No referendum is worth that.
Generations of Frenchmen will play it back and laugh in your face.
Literally GO's modus operandi every time - build something bad up, abandon it; so as to keep the pre-budget/AS narrative distracted
My ARSE based bets did very well in the Sindyref and GE. US betting I find rather tricky, their politrix are so different to our own.
Fear hasn't even got to first base.
By the time we get to 23 June Remain will have scared the pants off as many people as possible and, on current evidence, Leave will have no coherent response.
This is actually news, as the Mercedes has been so relentlessly reliable the team has been forced to split each day between the two drivers, to stop them getting too tired before the Australian Grand Prix.
And it might be the best hope for a non-Silver Arrow to win a race. [But I wouldn't put money on that].
- their pockets
- getting their fair share
The EU works against both of these
The fact that he is still Mayor at the moment, might also have something to do with it.
George Osborne is under pressure to stage a double retreat on pensions and party funding in this month’s Budget to strip away “barnacles” during the EU referendum, say ministers.
The Chancellor is set to shelve both a raid on pension pots and a cut to state funding given to Labour and other opposition parties.
Conservative MPs are threatening a revolt if he attempts to cut tax relief on pension contributions for 40 per cent rate taxpayers and offers a flat rate of relief at, say 25 per cent, for everyone.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/pressure-on-osborne-to-drop-raids-on-pensions-and-funding-a3195771.html
If Dave realised that the political implications of leaving for him are probably a net gain (as a Tory) the deal would have been much better, but Osborne is just absolutely poisonous because Leave destroys his career and chances of ever being PM.
I did do a thread comparing Nick Clegg to Valerian
If that's a common problem, the question becomes why? Do all the good engineers leave India, or is it that Indian management hinders their engineers? I'd say it's a bit of both, with a heavier emphasis on the latter.
(I've also known two stellar Russian engineers. It's time that country actually started using their engineers rather than exporting them).
He has never let being Mayor get in the way of anything up to now.
My success in the POTUS 08 and 12 was based on diligent research, political instinct that seems to travel over the pond, a forecast model correctly amending for poll bias, differential turnout and accurate state demographics and the ability to ignore US pundits aligned to one side or the other.
His parents must have liked it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warwick_Lightfoot
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476014/Adam-Johnson-s-schoolgirl-victim-15-set-sue-1MILLION-15m-fortune.html
She certainly saw him coming !
BTW, the new HALO head-protection system looks awful. Perhaps enough to stop me watching F1if they bring it in.
http://youtu.be/tZsVP2WoE9E
Alderholt (East Dorset) result:
CON: 47.5% (-15.4)
LDEM: 46.5% (+46.5)
LAB: 6.1% (+6.1)
My life has become a sticky-note fest. I feel a bit like Leonard Shelby.
For this reason, I'm not in the best position to argue about politics. Now, what was I saying...
A total UKIP own goal. Suzanne Evans is their best speaker, but at least she'll always have this... https://t.co/rtuSMTL6t6