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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson can lead Britain out of Europe – if he’s ser
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson can lead Britain out of Europe – if he’s serious about it
So its official, Boris backs Brexit. After a period of intense speculation in Westminster, the Mayor of London has come off the fence and announced that he will campaign for Britain to leave the E.U. Make no mistake, this is a major coup for the ‘Leave’ campaign which, until now, has been widely derided for the apparent lack of credible leaders within its team.
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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-michael-gove-david-cameron-brexit-national-security-a6886711.html
He attempted to take us as fools.
And his motives are being called out - even the supportive Sun Editorial says 'Yes, Boris is clearly thinking about the contest to succeed David Cameron', while the Indy 'Out for Himself' and Mirror 'EU Rat Boris' are hostile....
http://suttonnick.tumblr.com
'refreshing the old thread'.......hadn't hear that one before....every day a new euphemism.....
Perhaps he's on a diet .... he could do with losing a few pounds.
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http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article4696354.ece
For the vast majority - who will tune in around the end of May, if then, its likely going to be 'what does that nice Mr Cameron say?' and 'What side is Boris on, I'm sure I read something a while back...', and then there's 'that Nicola, she's a canny Scot - what sides she on - that'll be where the money is...'
I think they plan to spin it out until there is an amenable government that will let them drop the whole idea.
He's not going to lose them 'leading from the rear....'
What price George Osborne to succeed her at the Home Office after he has wrecked the pension plans of the middle class managers in his forthcoming socialist budget?
He doesn't want to debate Tories because he doesn't want to piss off the people he might rely on as votes for his leadership bid, and because as leader he will want to pull that party back together - he cant do that if he spends four months standing on peoples toes.
Pretty sure he will go in hard against any non-political members of the Remain side, the accident prone Mr Rose appears to be a prime target for him. He will also do the hopey-changey-big picture stuff of course. I am sure he will find a outrider from outside the party to tackle bullshit from remain, especially since Gove knows where a lot of the skeletons are buried and has an endless armoury of ECJ etc idiocy to wheel out.
À Propos the prospect of George Osborne moving from his position of Chancellor after six years at a time when he is coming under increasing criticism from his own side, his current side kick, Greg Hands, appears to me anyway as a very possible successor, where those nice folk at Ladbrokes have him on offer at 16/1. I've staked £6.25 to win a ton.
DYOR.
From tomorrow it's all change. Boris can no longer just be Boris. He's joined the mainstream and chosen a side and previous chums aren't holding back. Last night on radio 5 i heard a taste of things to come. Sweet roly-poly Boris was no more. He'd committed the cardinal Tory sin of being disloyal and they slaughtererd him.
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2016/02/21/boris-is-a-copper-bottomed-double-dealing-hypocritical-little-shit-the-press-will-destroy-him
I think it's actually plausible, at least regarding treaties of the whole EU. There are just too many veto points. Lisbon was almost entirely uncontroversial, and it still took 10 years and only just squeaked through. And that was with fewer members, and before the various crises that have left voters narked off with the establishment in general and the EU in particular.
An easier way to evolve is through Enhanced Cooperation and institutional mission creep. For example, the ECB just made up the power to print money to keep indebted countries' interest rates down in return for the right to keep an eye on their budgets. And if you look at how the US has evolved, most of the important changes are done without constitutional amendments, through things like gradual accretion of power to the executive branch, slowly ratcheting democratization and the generous interpretation of the commerce clause.
The other thing about this is that the next treaty will most likely be put to a referendum in Britain, where it will probably be voted down.
I strong suspect he runs up vast numbers in the south and tanks dreadfully the further north you go. Toxic in a FPTP system.
Why did you REMAIN on the old thread so long before noting the absolute requirement to LEAVE ?
An easier way to evolve is through Enhanced Cooperation and institutional mission creep. For example, the ECB just made up the power to print money to keep indebted countries' interest rates down in return for the right to keep an eye on their budgets. And if you look at how the US has evolved, most of the important changes are done without constitutional amendments, through things like gradual accretion of power to the executive branch, slowly ratcheting democratization and the generous interpretation of the commerce clause.
The other thing about this is that the next treaty will most likely be put to a referendum in Britain, where it will probably be voted down.
Technically, QE was considered permissable because Eurozone inflation was well under 2%, and it is the 'mission' of the ECB to keep inflation close to, but under, 2%.
Also, because the ECB can only buy bonds in proportion to the size of a country's economy, the effect is to supress yields on unindebted Eurozone countries (such as Germany) more than in the the more indebted periphery.
Whilst today Boris is the focus of attention for LEAVE, the essentials of this referendum REMAIN the same. The PM will pull sufficient Conservative inclined supporters and waverers to his cause and an essentially conservative nation, will despite misgivings, hold on to nanny rather than embrace the charms of Farage, Galloway and ilk.
A clear win for REMAIN beckons.
But most importantly, @JackW is back!
Indigo Posts:
In that well known Leaver rag the Independent
It came as doubts emerged over Mr Cameron’s EU reform package. The IoS can reveal that the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, warned the Prime Minister that his pledge to change the EU treaties to lock in his reforms may never happen.
A leaked diplomatic report of the Brussels talks reveals that Ms Merkel told fellow EU leaders not to be overly concerned about Mr Cameron’s demand for treaty changes because “on the question of amending the Treaties, we do not know if we ever will have a change of them”. The revelation undermines a key claim of Mr Cameron’s renegotiation.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-michael-gove-david-cameron-brexit-national-security-a6886711.html
Taken for fools ?
Of course Merkel does not need to do anything other than ensure the MEPs vote the changes down. This vote will take place after the referendum so any remain vote will still be subject to this process which naturally will not be in our favour.
Indeed I can see an inner secret circle of supporters could already convening under fixed elections and then attempting to deselect him to ensure that all others realise that disloyalty to the leader will cost you your seat and your job.
Oh, wait a minute.......
The British prefer to be led by a statesman who knows how to behave in public, we are not Italy or Greece. Who would vote to let their wife near him, vs the same question for Mr Cameron?
The problem is that they all have their own domestic audiences to worry about, and it makes every sense from that perspective to talk down the British deal as either meaningless words or not enforceable.
They all help the Leave side with these pronouncements. Maybe deep down some of them would be happy with that outcome.
So we could have a position where there is a large remain vote, this MEP scenario occurs and so we leave anyway. So how could we invoke article 50 after a referendum called for remain? I suspect the process of just leaving will be fraught with legal implications that a simple "we would just leave" would never be as simple as that in such circumstances. It would be a real dogs breakfast.
The one thing with the EU is you rarely get what you think you are getting and commonly don't.
Subtly amended in a fashion that upon closer inspections removes all meaning from it? Well, stranger things have happened....
That is tough.
But, if he really does want to win (and it's still a big "if" in my mind) he's going to have to leave all of at that the door TODAY.
He must go all out in this fight: be hard, ruthless and go for the kill.
That means coming to terms with the fact he will lose David Cameron as a friend and politically ally forever. In fact, from Cameron's perspective, that's almost certainly already happened.
Sad, perhaps even tragic, but tough titty. This is politics. And that's why most of us don't do it.
But, if he wants to be PM, he absolutely has to do this.
I hope your ARSE makes a regular showing over the next months.
Today.
My guess is that after today the deal will be put in some filing cabinet somewhere and we will hear very little about it again until after the referendum. The text indicates that it will be of no effect if the UK chooses to leave which seems to translate into nothing much will happen until we have voted to stay.
The real question from here is whether putting the deal on the shelf where it belongs makes it easier for the left who want to support Remain but not a Tory PM to get in the game. So far this has been an almost exclusively Tory debate. Whilst their share of the electorate (along with UKIP) are by far the most interested it seems highly unlikely that the 40 odd percent still to their left are going to sit this one out.
I don't think the media will be happy in having the members of one party so dominating the debate. This will become even more the case if we have the spectacle of Tories being excessively polite to each other which makes for very dull viewing or listening.
They had their backs turned to Boris and Gove, and never saw it coming.
londonstatto's timeline is hilarious this morning. He is replying to every journalist that read Boris's piece and concluded the same thing, with "You're wrong!"
Remain wins:
General discontent rumbles on.
Cameron resigns in 2018:
The Tory MPs choose Johnson and Osborne for the members to pick from.
The Tory members pick Boris.
@fatshez: Biggest lie so far in #euref is that there is a security benefit from #Brexit.
Boris should be making his decision based on what he believes is genuinely right for the country not on whether it makes it more or less likely that he will attain the highest office.
@IainDale: So have I got this right? Boris is voting OUT so he can become PM to negotiate for us to stay in, but on better terms. Total f*ckwittery.
Indeed, I'm sure there will be - but those changes will increase EU integration, not reduce it.
Nice to read a reasonably rational article on this subject btw instead of 'liberal' huffing and puffing
Then it will be a six week campaign with the same level of attention as a general election campaign. From abroad it's difficult to work out the level of engagement with the general public. I can understand that a higher turnout will probably benefit Remain, but are we expecting GE levels, AV levels or Scottish referendum levels?
Was on MSNBC, explaining that Trump doesn't need $ for ads because he gets so much free media, when they cut away from me to a Trump rally.
IDS, meanwhile, sucks charisma from anyone around him even the air in that tv studio. So, so mediocre.
On balance what have we got? We have got a codified no closer union and no discrimination eurozone vs non-eurozone. It is nothing new but it enshrines what some of us needed to see. It doesn't roll back any of the myriad rules and regulations and if I vote Remain I'm just going to have to suck that up. But our country has it in black and white that we exist with the EU on particular terms.
Of course, for Leavers, the key is not believing that the promises are worth the paper they are printed on and the EU will steamroll us into ECU. That will be tricky to argue against as ofc it hasn't happened and may not happen (I don't think it will we're not that idiotic) but that can't be proved.
1. Those who want out of the EU, whatever deal Cameron came back with. A few might sit on their hands because they don't much like Boris's veering towards staying in if we get a better deal. But a very few - at least it is a better direction of travel. And they won't vote Remain.
2. Those who are not virulently anti-EU, but cannot support the deal Cameron back with. They are annoyed with Cameron (who they generally quite like otherwise) for insulting their intelligence. These are the people Remain would have hoped to win back - or at least move to not bothering to vote at all. But with Boris (and Gove) supporting their case, they will be much harder to convince with Project Fear.
3. Those who have doubts about the deal but can't stand the thought of Farage getting all the credit for a Leave vote at the Referendum. Remain would have hoped to win some of these, turn others into non-voters. But the idea of Boris staking a claim to that glory will allow most to vote to Leave, regardless of Farage.
4. Those who have doubts about the deal, but whose fears were calmed by the Prime Minister claiming to have got a good deal. Remain would have calculated these votes were in the bag. But then Boris comes along and says "you were right to have doubts; this deal is a crock. We can do better than this. This is the group that will determine this referendum. Only Boris could have prised them away from Remain. He will also get...
5. ...those with a very slight interest in politics, but who just like Boris - and are prepared to give him a quick listen. This is a good vein to mine, because few others will get their engagement.
That coalition could yet be enough for a narrow Leave win.
He said staying in made a Paris style attack in London more likely.
London has been attacked many times, but the Paris attackers chose not to.
Because it was "too easy" ?
Dear Member of Parliament,
am writing to you, as one of your constituents, to ask you to Vote Leave so we can take back control from the European Union.
The EU referendum is much bigger than party politics, or any election – and people in our area will be very interested to know how you will be voting.
We send £350 million to the EU every week – that's money which could be better spent on our priorities here in our local community. I want to see our laws made by the people we elect – representatives like you – not by unelected politicians and judges in the EU.
Will you join me, and countless others from our local area, to Vote Leave in the EU referendum? This is such an important issue, and your constituents will be looking to see how you vote.
Thank you for your time.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/email_your_mp?utm_content=bufferdff86&utm_medium=
Spot the missing word.......
To repeat a point I made the other day in a different context, it's like karaoke. Regardless of your private qualms, you've got to belt it out with conviction. How odd that Boris Johnson of all people seems to need telling that.
Total f*ckwittery doesn't even cover it...
In the EU or out of the EU, we will still co-operate with our neighbours on security matters, we will still check passports at our borders and still use the UN, Interpol and other organisations - as well as our own MI5 and MI6 - continuing to co-operate with other governments worldwide in the protection of citizens and visitors from those who wish them harm. To suggest otherwise is, frankly, bollocks.
But as I mentioned upthread, the one unarguable, if perhaps specious position of the Leavers is that the EU plans to ignore no ECU and steamroll us and all our trade and services back to Brussels. That is the crux of the Leave argument: that the EU will force us into ECU despite all the agreements and the directives saying they won't.
More than happy for them to be able to decide their own destiny of course. What I have Never quite got my head around is the argument that they want independence because they can't determine their own future while demanding that UK remains fully shackled to Europe but if not, then only to immediately shackle themselves to a group, not of 4 members but 27 who will then determine their destiny.
He said staying in made a Paris style attack in London more likely.
London has been attacked many times, but the Paris attackers chose not to.
Because it was "too easy" ?'
What an absurdly facile argument
Everyone saying Johnson wants to ultimately stay in will look very silly within 48 hours, when he puts matter to rest.
But to be realistic, both of us are in very small minorities. Most people notice the exchange rate only in the price of fuel and the price of foreign holidays - unless it changes dramatically and causes general inflation in the price of imported goods.
The EU will give better terms to a non-member than members? And pigs might fly out of my butt
It’s all very confusing and in many ways contradictory for my nationalist friends. But then that’s not really a new situation for them.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/12167435/Sturgeons-confused-and-confusing-message-on-Brexit.html
Message to Jude Law... Fuck off.
"If the “Leave” side wins, it will indeed be necessary to negotiate a large number of trade deals at great speed. But why should that be impossible? We have become so used to Nanny in Brussels that we have become infantilised, incapable of imagining an independent future. We used to run the biggest empire the world has ever seen, and with a much smaller domestic population and a relatively tiny Civil Service. Are we really unable to do trade deals? We will have at least two years in which the existing treaties will be in force."
Why would we be negotiating new trade deals as speed if we were staying In?? Why would he be referring explicitly to the two year time frame mentioned by Article 50??
Remain supporters have got themselves flustered in their panic and misinterpreted him.
Well, it takes ones to know one, I guess
* takes cover and peeps out from behind sofa*