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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson can lead Britain out of Europe – if he’s ser

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  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    Scott_P said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris' position is incoherent. He obviously wants to remain in a reformed EU, but is backing leave.

    No wonder he took so long before getting off the fence. If you look closely he is still on it.

    He is not backing leave. He is backing a vote for leave, as a lever to renegotiate a "better" deal
    Outside the EU.
    Where does he say that in his article?
    Already quoted by NorfolkTilIDie.

    Boris doesn't say it in his article - unlike Gove.......
    I know you hate him leading leave,
    But he's NOT leading Leave - you really should pay attention to what he says - not what his delirious fanboys spout.....
    FFS he may not be officially leading it, who do you think the media are going to be hanging on every word of. He is defacto leading it because he is the one with the media clout and the cut through to the voters most Tories can't reach.
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    The most important decision in this referendum has yet to be made.

    The electoral commission has to appoint the official Leave campaign, if it Grassroots Out then that's a blow for leave.

    Whilst Cameron is on the same side as Gerry Adams and John McDonnell, you can be damn sure Remain won't hold a rally and introduce Adams or McDonnell as their special guest.

    Lord only knows how they will decide bertween the two.

    It's essentially a highly-charged political decision about whether free movement will be the centrepiece of the campaign.
    Vote Leave appears to be the Tory Leave team.

    Grassroots Out appears to have more supporters from different parties.

    You can see how and why the electoral commission gives it to Grassroots Out
    That is apparently why GRO teamed up with Galloway & Respect - to help fulfil the 'Multi-Party' part of the Electoral Commission's brief - of course all the senior Tories (including Boris) are in VL......
    There are plenty of Kippers in VL including their only MP.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    VoteLeave has MPs from Ukip, Labour and Tories.

    The most important decision in this referendum has yet to be made.

    The electoral commission has to appoint the official Leave campaign, if it Grassroots Out then that's a blow for leave.

    Whilst Cameron is on the same side as Gerry Adams and John McDonnell, you can be damn sure Remain won't hold a rally and introduce Adams or McDonnell as their special guest.

    Lord only knows how they will decide bertween the two.

    It's essentially a highly-charged political decision about whether free movement will be the centrepiece of the campaign.
    Vote Leave appears to be the Tory Leave team.

    Grassroots Out appears to have more supporters from different parties.

    You can see how and why the electoral commission gives it to Grassroots Out
  • Options
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Scott_P said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris' position is incoherent. He obviously wants to remain in a reformed EU, but is backing leave.

    No wonder he took so long before getting off the fence. If you look closely he is still on it.

    He is not backing leave. He is backing a vote for leave, as a lever to renegotiate a "better" deal
    Outside the EU.
    Where does he say that in his article?
    Already quoted by NorfolkTilIDie.

    Boris doesn't say it in his article - unlike Gove.......
    I know you hate him leading leave,
    But he's NOT leading Leave - you really should pay attention to what he says - not what his delirious fanboys spout.....
    FFS he may not be officially leading it, who do you think the media are going to be hanging on every word of. He is defacto leading it because he is the one with the media clout and the cut through to the voters most Tories can't reach.

    How many TV and radio interviews has Boris done today to follow up on his announcement yesterday? Does he have any press conferences scheduled?

  • Options
    LondonBob said:

    https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/701597982194540544

    First poll I have seen with Trump in the 50s.

    Looks like the Bush support is going to Trump.
  • Options

    After reading the Boris article, I'm glad I've been laying him for next Tory leader, that policy won't change.

    Absolute pish compared to Gove's spine tingling, intellectually sound parvum opus on Saturday

    Pah Eagles you jelly livered munichois, you'll tie yourseld up in knots for the next 4 months and then plump for the party line.
    I have defied the current leadership in the past, especially on the most important of matters.

    For example my views on AV are well known.

    And you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS
    Nonsense you and SeanT will switch sides so many times you'll crash in to each other and cause a mulitiple pile up.
    I've promised to post a picture of my postal ballot on PB.
    Can you take Tipp Ex into a ballot box ?
    I'll come to Warwickshire, hand you my postal ballot and you can post it for me.
    Can I fill it in first ?
    Yes. So long as you don't write Osborne is a cock on it.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    That the Outers are so desperate to move on from the Horror show of Nigel Farage and George Galloway is not surprising, but the zeal with which they have seized upon Boris Johnson's damascene conversion to the cause of Boris Johnson is endlessly entertaining

    Turns out Scott is an utter wet.

    How disappointing.
    I always had him down as a true-blue centre-right Tory.. seems I was wrong, another TINO Lib dem :p
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,962
    LondonBob said:

    https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/701597982194540544

    First poll I have seen with Trump in the 50s.

    That is YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    He's delivering the final Budget for London today.

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Scott_P said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris' position is incoherent. He obviously wants to remain in a reformed EU, but is backing leave.

    No wonder he took so long before getting off the fence. If you look closely he is still on it.

    He is not backing leave. He is backing a vote for leave, as a lever to renegotiate a "better" deal
    Outside the EU.
    Where does he say that in his article?
    Already quoted by NorfolkTilIDie.

    Boris doesn't say it in his article - unlike Gove.......
    I know you hate him leading leave,
    But he's NOT leading Leave - you really should pay attention to what he says - not what his delirious fanboys spout.....
    FFS he may not be officially leading it, who do you think the media are going to be hanging on every word of. He is defacto leading it because he is the one with the media clout and the cut through to the voters most Tories can't reach.

    How many TV and radio interviews has Boris done today to follow up on his announcement yesterday? Does he have any press conferences scheduled?

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    Boris may not mention the word "outside" in his article, but his change of relationship can be construed as wanting out.

    But the article is deeply unimpressive. We know all the ills of the EU and its increasing reach in many areas. What we now need to know is what would improve if we were to leave. Boris is good at purging about the EU but I was surprised (unless it is in an article to come) at the lack of an alternative vision.

    I don't think any of us would have started from here, with the EU, but we are where we are. If we are to upset the applecart then we need to understand exactly how we will be in a better place post-Brexit.

    I don't think Boris, with his famous aversion to detail, is the man to help us find out. Which leaves the impression that he is happy enough to be a Leaver simply because that is the route which most keenly advances his political ambitions.

    Which reaffirms my impression of him as a useless clown.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    After reading the Boris article, I'm glad I've been laying him for next Tory leader, that policy won't change.

    Absolute pish compared to Gove's spine tingling, intellectually sound parvum opus on Saturday

    Pah Eagles you jelly livered munichois, you'll tie yourseld up in knots for the next 4 months and then plump for the party line.
    I have defied the current leadership in the past, especially on the most important of matters.

    For example my views on AV are well known.

    And you should have seen me under the leadership of IDS
    Nonsense you and SeanT will switch sides so many times you'll crash in to each other and cause a mulitiple pile up.
    I've promised to post a picture of my postal ballot on PB.
    Can you take Tipp Ex into a ballot box ?
    I'll come to Warwickshire, hand you my postal ballot and you can post it for me.
    Can I fill it in first ?
    Yes. So long as you don't write Osborne is a cock on it.
    Nah did that at the GE, I'll think of something topical.
  • Options
    See this will push some Tories back to Remain

    Liam Fox on a future Tory leadership bid? "We'll have to wait and see".... "never say never". #VictoriaLive
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    Nice rebuff to Remain security claims from former Head of Cabinet Office - International Terrorism unit, Colonel Richard Kemp http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/thunderer/article4696016.ece
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    See this will push some Tories back to Remain

    Liam Fox on a future Tory leadership bid? "We'll have to wait and see".... "never say never". #VictoriaLive

    Remain, get Osborne.
    Leave, get Boris.
    That should concentrate Tory minds.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    See this will push some Tories back to Remain

    Liam Fox on a future Tory leadership bid? "We'll have to wait and see".... "never say never". #VictoriaLive

    I mean seriously ? There are only about 150,000 of you even if you all switched at once it's hardly going to swing the vote in an electorate of 35 million.
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    See this will push some Tories back to Remain

    Liam Fox on a future Tory leadership bid? "We'll have to wait and see".... "never say never". #VictoriaLive

    Which Leave campaign has he signed up to?
  • Options

    See this will push some Tories back to Remain

    Liam Fox on a future Tory leadership bid? "We'll have to wait and see".... "never say never". #VictoriaLive

    I mean seriously ? There are only about 150,000 of you even if you all switched at once it's hardly going to swing the vote in an electorate of 35 million.
    I'm thinking of the millions of Tory voters who identify themselves as Tories but aren't members.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Richard, you're embarrassing yourself. Sure you've decided to vote remain. Bully for you. But don't partially quote others to give a misleading impression

    Oh, for God's sake, not you too!

    No, I'm not embarassing myself. I am writing in the (perhaps over-optimistic) assumption that people reading my comments are not half-wits. My point, which surely is hardly controversial, is that there are lots of quotes out there from Boris which make it very awkward for him to be convincing as the leader of the Leave campaign. He'll be repeatedly challenged by journalists about his inconsistencies, and his comments - just like the two I quoted - will be on Remain leaflets. What's more, he's opened himself to the perception that he's motivated primarily by career aspirations rather than what's good for the country.

    Now, both of these problems might be unfair. But we're grown-ups here, right? At least I am. What we are talking about is the degree to which Boris is an asset for Leave in a political sense. Of course he's a big asset inasmuch as he's a charismatic big beast and obviously not bonkers. But there are awkward issues which will make it hard for him to lead Leave with credibility and conviction.

    I agree with Sean Fear: de facto, whether he intended it or not, Boris is now the leader of Leave, the person journalists will most want to get quotes and interviews from. A reluctant, conflicted leader, albeit a charismatic one.
  • Options

    See this will push some Tories back to Remain

    Liam Fox on a future Tory leadership bid? "We'll have to wait and see".... "never say never". #VictoriaLive

    Which Leave campaign has he signed up to?
    I think is LeaversForFoxAsToryLeader Group.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Indigo said:

    I always had him down as a true-blue centre-right Tory.. seems I was wrong, another TINO Lib dem :p

    No secret I voted for the Lib Dems.

    Of course, that was back when Charlie was in charge, not that ***less ****er Clegg...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    Fenster said:

    Matt Ridley in Times makes a more detailed case here

    Linked earlier. Well worth a read.

    Fenster said:

    I just read Michael Gove's reasons for leaving.

    The big businesses bit got me - using the regulations to crush small businesses and make lives worse for employees (I see the grinding results of it every day). That makes me fear for the future of our children more than anything else - I see people in our factory who are akin to zero-hour contract slaves.

    I'm a natural risk taker, so screw it, I'm gonna vote for leave.

    Thank you!

    Sentimentally, I feel like a spiteful bastard voting to leave. The peace we've had in Europe for 60 years and the close bonds between once warring countries. I mean, it is impressive, and really it should trump all else.

    But the creeping powers, the tentacles stealing away, smidge by smidge, bits of our sovereignty. It has always bothered me and should bother everyone who cares about politics. I regard Gove (the Tories version of Ed Balls) as a decent, intellectually challenging, free-thinking, political hard-nut. He might be crushingly unpopular (again, like Balls) due to his stridency, but there's something noble in that.

    I trust him.
    Yugoslavia? Ukraine? Where is this peace you talk of? I think the EU has done a poor job of securing peace on our continent since the cold war meant it wasn't just a case of Europe on both sides of the curtain doing what they were told.

    Gove's piece was excellent but we still need to be clear what the alternative is: in the EEA or out of it? In the single market or out of it (presumably with some sort of trade deal)? Gove is capable of giving intellectual coherence to Leave but whether the others on that platform will agree with him (including Boris) remains to be seen.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Can some of the diehard Leavers clarify a point for me? Yesterday I seemed to cause quite a stir by suggesting the public wouldn't find a collection of oddballs leading the charge for Leave very persuasive. The consensus seemed to be that it was the ishoos that mattered.

    Today the diehard Leaver consensus seems to be that having Boris Johnson on their side is a huge asset. Which do Leavers actually believe? Or is it, as usual, the case that the diehard Leavers want to have their cake and eat it?

    I think the general consensus is that in the oddball stakes both sides are evenly matched.
    Farage, Galloway? No, no consensus I'm afraid.
    if you say so though Mcdonnell. Osborne and Corbyn are regularly pummelled here as much as Farage and are seen as oddball in their own special domains.
    McDonnell and Corbyn, yes, along with Sinn Fein. Not Osborne, though, who's just another mainstream politician.
    and in a nutshell that's the problem for the politicos in this vote.

    The vote is cross party and mudslinging won;t work without offending half the target electorate.

    You say Corbyn's mad and Osborne a hero, on the left of your voting spectrum someone thinks the exact opposite. So are you going to offend everyone or just be bland for the next 4 months ?

    This is a Tory game because only the Tories are going to be in power for the foreseeable future. What Corbyn or Gerry Adams think about the EU are immaterial, thy are never going to have the chance to do anything about it.

    We're all Tories now. Er, except the 75% who didn't vote for them at the election. Er, hang on...

    When Memes Collide.....
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    Sean_F said:

    Richard, you're embarrassing yourself. Sure you've decided to vote remain. Bully for you. But don't partially quote others to give a misleading impression

    Oh, for God's sake, not you too!

    No, I'm not embarassing myself. I am writing in the (perhaps over-optimistic) assumption that people reading my comments are not half-wits. My point, which surely is hardly controversial, is that there are lots of quotes out there from Boris which make it very awkward for him to be convincing as the leader of the Leave campaign. He'll be repeatedly challenged by journalists about his inconsistencies, and his comments - just like the two I quoted - will be on Remain leaflets. What's more, he's opened himself to the perception that he's motivated primarily by career aspirations rather than what's good for the country.

    Now, both of these problems might be unfair. But we're grown-ups here, right? At least I am. What we are talking about is the degree to which Boris is an asset for Leave in a political sense. Of course he's a big asset inasmuch as he's a charismatic big beast and obviously not bonkers. But there are awkward issues which will make it hard for him to lead Leave.

    I agree with Sean Fear: de facto, whether he intended it or not, he is now the leader of Leave, the perospn journalists will most want to get quotes and interviews from. A reluctant, conflicted leader, albeit a charismatic one.
    No, I'm not embarassing myself.

    you may wish to remove that post
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    .@David_Cameron's EU migrant benefit brake could lead to surge of arrivals before deadline: http://thesun.uk/6011BjEQD http://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/701710511084347392/photo/1
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    Sean_F said:

    Richard, you're embarrassing yourself. Sure you've decided to vote remain. Bully for you. But don't partially quote others to give a misleading impression

    Oh, for God's sake, not you too!

    No, I'm not embarassing myself. I am writing in the (perhaps over-optimistic) assumption that people reading my comments are not half-wits. My point, which surely is hardly controversial, is that there are lots of quotes out there from Boris which make it very awkward for him to be convincing as the leader of the Leave campaign. He'll be repeatedly challenged by journalists about his inconsistencies, and his comments - just like the two I quoted - will be on Remain leaflets. What's more, he's opened himself to the perception that he's motivated primarily by career aspirations rather than what's good for the country.

    Now, both of these problems might be unfair. But we're grown-ups here, right? At least I am. What we are talking about is the degree to which Boris is an asset for Leave in a political sense. Of course he's a big asset inasmuch as he's a charismatic big beast and obviously not bonkers. But there are awkward issues which will make it hard for him to lead Leave with credibility and conviction.

    I agree with Sean Fear: de facto, whether he intended it or not, Boris is now the leader of Leave, the person journalists will most want to get quotes and interviews from. A reluctant, conflicted leader, albeit a charismatic one.

    Boris will not be repeatedly challenged by journalists because he will not do press conferences and will not do interviews with anything other than friendly newspapers.

  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    LondonBob said:

    https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/701597982194540544

    First poll I have seen with Trump in the 50s.

    That is YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE
    Stick a fork in it, it's done, Trump will get the nomination.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    See this will push some Tories back to Remain

    Liam Fox on a future Tory leadership bid? "We'll have to wait and see".... "never say never". #VictoriaLive

    I mean seriously ? There are only about 150,000 of you even if you all switched at once it's hardly going to swing the vote in an electorate of 35 million.
    I'm thinking of the millions of Tory voters who identify themselves as Tories but aren't members.
    The possibility that Liam Fox might do something and stand in a contest where I can't vote has absolutely no bearing on what I think of the EUref.
  • Options
    RodCrosby said:
    I was surprised to see Jeb quit since Cruz and Rubio are blatantly ineligible for the US Presidency.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Meanwhile...

    @JournoStephen: Scottish Labour will not come third in May, says @RichardAngell. Canny observations from @ProgressOnline campaigning https://t.co/d8vCRB48GF
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    From the EC, factors considered when designating a 'Lead Campaign'

    how you intend to convey your campaign message across to voters across the UK and Gibraltar including how you will make use of the lead campaign group benefits. You may wish to consider how you will communicate with different groups of voters such as different age groups (including younger voters), voters with disabilities, ethnic communities and those not using English as their first language

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/194594/Designation-process-for-the-EU-referendum.pdf
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    See this will push some Tories back to Remain

    Liam Fox on a future Tory leadership bid? "We'll have to wait and see".... "never say never". #VictoriaLive

    No it won't because he is very unlikely to make the last two, and hasn't the faintest chance of winning.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    Sean_F said:

    Richard, you're embarrassing yourself. Sure you've decided to vote remain. Bully for you. But don't partially quote others to give a misleading impression

    Oh, for God's sake, not you too!

    No, I'm not embarassing myself. I am writing in the (perhaps over-optimistic) assumption that people reading my comments are not half-wits. My point, which surely is hardly controversial, is that there are lots of quotes out there from Boris which make it very awkward for him to be convincing as the leader of the Leave campaign. He'll be repeatedly challenged by journalists about his inconsistencies, and his comments - just like the two I quoted - will be on Remain leaflets. What's more, he's opened himself to the perception that he's motivated primarily by career aspirations rather than what's good for the country.

    Now, both of these problems might be unfair. But we're grown-ups here, right? At least I am. What we are talking about is the degree to which Boris is an asset for Leave in a political sense. Of course he's a big asset inasmuch as he's a charismatic big beast and obviously not bonkers. But there are awkward issues which will make it hard for him to lead Leave.

    I agree with Sean Fear: de facto, whether he intended it or not, he is now the leader of Leave, the perospn journalists will most want to get quotes and interviews from. A reluctant, conflicted leader, albeit a charismatic one.
    No, I'm not embarassing myself.

    you may wish to remove that post
    Richard should be replying to Charles.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Boris has just been presented with his first test as a future prime minister. And he's failed it > Telegraph > https://t.co/P7fG8Klygp
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    JohnO said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard, you're embarrassing yourself. Sure you've decided to vote remain. Bully for you. But don't partially quote others to give a misleading impression

    Oh, for God's sake, not you too!

    No, I'm not embarassing myself. I am writing in the (perhaps over-optimistic) assumption that people reading my comments are not half-wits. My point, which surely is hardly controversial, is that there are lots of quotes out there from Boris which make it very awkward for him to be convincing as the leader of the Leave campaign. He'll be repeatedly challenged by journalists about his inconsistencies, and his comments - just like the two I quoted - will be on Remain leaflets. What's more, he's opened himself to the perception that he's motivated primarily by career aspirations rather than what's good for the country.

    Now, both of these problems might be unfair. But we're grown-ups here, right? At least I am. What we are talking about is the degree to which Boris is an asset for Leave in a political sense. Of course he's a big asset inasmuch as he's a charismatic big beast and obviously not bonkers. But there are awkward issues which will make it hard for him to lead Leave.

    I agree with Sean Fear: de facto, whether he intended it or not, he is now the leader of Leave, the perospn journalists will most want to get quotes and interviews from. A reluctant, conflicted leader, albeit a charismatic one.
    No, I'm not embarassing myself.

    you may wish to remove that post
    Richard should be replying to Charles.
    I know, it just gets more embarassing by the minute :-)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Fenster said:

    Matt Ridley in Times makes a more detailed case here

    Linked earlier. Well worth a read.

    Fenster said:

    I just read Michael Gove's reasons for leaving.

    The big businesses bit got me - using the regulations to crush small businesses and make lives worse for employees (I see the grinding results of it every day). That makes me fear for the future of our children more than anything else - I see people in our factory who are akin to zero-hour contract slaves.

    I'm a natural risk taker, so screw it, I'm gonna vote for leave.

    Thank you!

    Sentimentally, I feel like a spiteful bastard voting to leave. The peace we've had in Europe for 60 years and the close bonds between once warring countries. I mean, it is impressive, and really it should trump all else.

    But the creeping powers, the tentacles stealing away, smidge by smidge, bits of our sovereignty. It has always bothered me and should bother everyone who cares about politics. I regard Gove (the Tories version of Ed Balls) as a decent, intellectually challenging, free-thinking, political hard-nut. He might be crushingly unpopular (again, like Balls) due to his stridency, but there's something noble in that.

    I trust him.
    This is key from Gove:

    "I believe that the decisions which govern all our lives, the laws we must all obey and the taxes we must all pay should be decided by people we choose and who we can throw out if we want change. If power is to be used wisely, if we are to avoid corruption and complacency in high office, then the public must have the right to change laws and Governments at election time."

    That idea resonated at the last election, when the horrible notion of the LibDems being in permanent Government got booted out by the British voters on left and right. Swap the LibDems for the French and the idea has even greater traction.

    And the peace in Europe for 60 years? No reason that should change if we leave. Our role for centuries has been to go into mainland Europe to knock heads together when Europeans fall out....
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    If Boris leads Leave to win then he is set to take over from Dave. That's the gamble he has taken. If Remain gets a narrow win, Dave will have to give Boris a decent job to "heal the wounds" in the Tory party, though I expect won't be a great office given that May, Hammond and Osborne are all in the Remain camp. Boris will be in trouble if Remain get 55+, at that point it's no longer close enough for the PM feel the need to appease the Leave camp.

    It's a career defining gambit, if Boris can pull it off then he will be remembered as the man who took Britain out of the EU against grain of his own party and PM.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:
    I was surprised to see Jeb quit since Cruz and Rubio are blatantly ineligible for the US Presidency.
    Carson, Trump and Kasich are eligible candidates.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,962
    I'm struggling to see how Trump doesn't take New York based on that Massachusetts poll.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MaxPB said:

    If Boris leads Leave to win then he is set to take over from Dave.

    @PippaCrerar: Boris cross at suggestions he'a sacrificing London economy for own personal ambition.
    "No. It's very important to be reasonable about this."
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    DavidL said:

    Fenster said:

    Matt Ridley in Times makes a more detailed case here

    Linked earlier. Well worth a read.

    Fenster said:

    I just read Michael Gove's reasons for leaving.

    The big businesses bit got me - using the regulations to crush small businesses and make lives worse for employees (I see the grinding results of it every day). That makes me fear for the future of our children more than anything else - I see people in our factory who are akin to zero-hour contract slaves.

    I'm a natural risk taker, so screw it, I'm gonna vote for leave.

    Thank you!

    Sentimentally, I feel like a spiteful bastard voting to leave. The peace we've had in Europe for 60 years and the close bonds between once warring countries. I mean, it is impressive, and really it should trump all else.

    But the creeping powers, the tentacles stealing away, smidge by smidge, bits of our sovereignty. It has always bothered me and should bother everyone who cares about politics. I regard Gove (the Tories version of Ed Balls) as a decent, intellectually challenging, free-thinking, political hard-nut. He might be crushingly unpopular (again, like Balls) due to his stridency, but there's something noble in that.

    I trust him.
    Yugoslavia? Ukraine? Where is this peace you talk of? I think the EU has done a poor job of securing peace on our continent since the cold war meant it wasn't just a case of Europe on both sides of the curtain doing what they were told.

    Gove's piece was excellent but we still need to be clear what the alternative is: in the EEA or out of it? In the single market or out of it (presumably with some sort of trade deal)? Gove is capable of giving intellectual coherence to Leave but whether the others on that platform will agree with him (including Boris) remains to be seen.
    Peace within the EU countries.. It actually gives extra credence to the argument because Yugoslavia and Ukraine are both outside the EU. I don't think there's any denying that relationships between Germany, France Italy and the UK have improved through political union.

    Anyway, voting to leave or not is, and should be, a very conflicting issue. I admire anyone who is absolutely sure on it, because it is fraught with ifs and buts. I'm willing to take the risk because even if we do leave and fall flat on our faces, at least we have the power within our own grasp to change things.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,962
    Also Hilary being level with Bernie there - surely good news for her.
  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    .@David_Cameron's EU migrant benefit brake could lead to surge of arrivals before deadline:

    Hang on, I thought there was supposed to be nothing to it.
  • Options

    Nice rebuff to Remain security claims from former Head of Cabinet Office - International Terrorism unit, Colonel Richard Kemp http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/thunderer/article4696016.ece

    Both sides are making foolish claims about 'Security' - whether we are in the EU or not, our Nation State neighbours and their governments have a shared interest with our own on 'security'......
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    isam said:

    Indigo said:

    Can some of the diehard Leavers clarify a point for me? Yesterday I seemed to cause quite a stir by suggesting the public wouldn't find a collection of oddballs leading the charge for Leave very persuasive. The consensus seemed to be that it was the ishoos that mattered.

    Today the diehard Leaver consensus seems to be that having Boris Johnson on their side is a huge asset. Which do Leavers actually believe? Or is it, as usual, the case that the diehard Leavers want to have their cake and eat it?

    There's actually no contradiction, though I'm not sure it's worth spending the time explaining why to a devout Remainian who has made up his mind because he thinks Farage is a gay-basher and doesn't trust the public to keep him out of government.
    Boris is a massive media figure, as a simple for-instance he has more Twitter followers than all the main party leaders put together,he is going to engage people, especially young voters, like no one else in Leave.

    99% of voters are not going to give a crap about the minutiae of the deal, they are going to go on gut feel and what key people say. Attempts by Remainers to dissect the details of his text is futile, beyond the obsessives here no one cares.

    If Dave runs around doing Project Fear, and Boris runs around doing hopey changey sunlight uplands stuff, its going to be interesting.

    Is Boris going to do much running around, though? His usual style is not to debate, not to do press conferences and not to do in-depth interviews. There is no indication that this is going to change. What are his views on free movement, the Leave camp's big potential calling card?

    Even if he is for free movement, it doesn't matter. The key point is that the government we elect gets to choose who comes here... If they are elected on a platform of free movement, so be it. If the public don't like it they can vote them out next time

    Not sure that works. It's convoluted. If you have the de facto leader of the Leave campaign saying he is not opposed to the free movement of people within a UK/EU single market, then practically speaking what you have is this de facto leader saying one thing and other prominent members of the Leave camp saying another. And immigration is supposed to be Leave's big trump card - which it should be, of course. What's more, people know that there is never going to be a UKIP government (or a Labour one for the foreseeable future, for that matter), so it is what Tories say about Leave and Remain that actually matters.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Boris has just been presented with his first test as a future prime minister. And he's failed it > Telegraph > https://t.co/P7fG8Klygp

    LOL what did you expect Arch-Europhile Hodges to say ? "Actually I think Boris joining Leave was a damn good idea, he reaches the parts other Tories can't reach, and I look forward to seeing him in the campaign" ? Get real.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Candidate for tweet of the day...

    @tracey_crouch: 1/2 Dear journos, I gave birth 4 days ago. With respect only decision I'll make today is which breast pump to buy not how I'll vote in June!
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016
    JohnO said:

    Richard should be replying to Charles.

    Oops, yes of course - that was in reply to Charles.

    I'm not sure how it happens, but sometimes the quote button gets the name wrong. Or perhaps I made a mistake in the editing. Apologies to Sean F either way!
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    MaxPB said:

    If Boris leads Leave to win then he is set to take over from Dave. That's the gamble he has taken. If Remain gets a narrow win, Dave will have to give Boris a decent job to "heal the wounds" in the Tory party, though I expect won't be a great office given that May, Hammond and Osborne are all in the Remain camp. Boris will be in trouble if Remain get 55+, at that point it's no longer close enough for the PM feel the need to appease the Leave camp.

    It's a career defining gambit, if Boris can pull it off then he will be remembered as the man who took Britain out of the EU against grain of his own party and PM.

    That depends on two things:
    * Whether he does actually take the UK out of the EU.
    * If he does, what kind of Brexit deal he negotiates.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Fenster said:

    Sentimentally, I feel like a spiteful bastard voting to leave. The peace we've had in Europe for 60 years and the close bonds between once warring countries. I mean, it is impressive, and really it should trump all else.

    We are not voting to "Remain" or "Leave" NATO I am happy to say, so this should not be a consideration ;)

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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Commons Library
    In or Out? You decide on the 23 June. Read our impartial briefing on the possible impact of a #Brexit https://t.co/oXPYLMsPOg
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,916
    Boris loves to be loved. He's not a conviction politician, particularly where the EU is concerned.

    What I ask myself is whether Boris will really want to go down in history as the person who more or less single handedly took the UK out of the EU. He might surprise me and really go for it but I think it more likely his role will become less and less visible between now and June and his comments will become ever more equivocal and dithery to the point where by June it will hard to tell which side he is actually on.
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    MaxPB said:

    If Boris leads Leave to win then he is set to take over from Dave. That's the gamble he has taken. If Remain gets a narrow win, Dave will have to give Boris a decent job to "heal the wounds" in the Tory party, though I expect won't be a great office given that May, Hammond and Osborne are all in the Remain camp. Boris will be in trouble if Remain get 55+, at that point it's no longer close enough for the PM feel the need to appease the Leave camp.

    It's a career defining gambit, if Boris can pull it off then he will be remembered as the man who took Britain out of the EU against grain of his own party and PM.

    The mantle of Churchill rests on Johnson's broad prop hardened shoulders.
    Cometh the hour, cometh the man.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    That depends on two things:
    * Whether he does actually take the UK out of the EU.
    * If he does, what kind of Brexit deal he negotiates.

    If it's Leave Boris will be PM inside 3 months, it will take years to negotiate a deal, it might effect his legacy, and how history treats him, I doubt it will effect him getting the job.

  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    If Boris leads Leave to win then he is set to take over from Dave. That's the gamble he has taken. If Remain gets a narrow win, Dave will have to give Boris a decent job to "heal the wounds" in the Tory party, though I expect won't be a great office given that May, Hammond and Osborne are all in the Remain camp. Boris will be in trouble if Remain get 55+, at that point it's no longer close enough for the PM feel the need to appease the Leave camp.

    It's a career defining gambit, if Boris can pull it off then he will be remembered as the man who took Britain out of the EU against grain of his own party and PM.

    That depends on two things:
    * Whether he does actually take the UK out of the EU.
    * If he does, what kind of Brexit deal he negotiates.
    Hey, that's an interesting point. Are you suggesting Boris would then say 'I'll renegotiate a better deal than Cameron and then we'll stay'?
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    TGOHF said:

    .@David_Cameron's EU migrant benefit brake could lead to surge of arrivals before deadline:

    Hang on, I thought there was supposed to be nothing to it.
    Its the same as the Schrodinger migrant - simultaneously 'taking our jobs' while 'living on benefits'.....
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Indigo said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Boris has just been presented with his first test as a future prime minister. And he's failed it > Telegraph > https://t.co/P7fG8Klygp

    LOL what did you expect Arch-Europhile Hodges to say ? "Actually I think Boris joining Leave was a damn good idea, he reaches the parts other Tories can't reach, and I look forward to seeing him in the campaign" ? Get real.
    Hodges whilst a guru on internal Labour party Kremlinology does not have a good record at taking the pulse of the country on Europe.

    Hence why he was running down Westminster in shorts last month.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Hey, that's an interesting point. Are you suggesting Boris would then say 'I'll renegotiate a better deal than Cameron and then we'll stay'?

    that's what his article says...
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    isamisam Posts: 40,962

    isam said:

    Indigo said:

    Can some of the diehard Leavers clarify a point for me? o Leavers actually believe? Or is it, as usual, the case that the diehard Leavers want to have their cake and eat it?

    There's actually no contradiction, though I'm not sure it's worth spending the time explaining why to a devout Remainian who has made up his mind because he thinks Farage is a gay-basher and doesn't trust the public to keep him out of government.
    Boris is a massive media figure, as a simple for-instance he has more Twitter followers than all the main party leaders put together,he is going to engage people, especially young voters, like no one else in Leave.

    99% of voters are not going to give a crap about the minutiae of the deal, they are going to go on gut feel and what key people say. Attempts by Remainers to dissect the details of his text is futile, beyond the obsessives here no one cares.

    If Dave runs around doing Project Fear, and Boris runs around doing hopey changey sunlight uplands stuff, its going to be interesting.

    Is Boris going to do much running around, though? His usual style is not to debate, not to do press conferences and not to do in-depth interviews. There is no indication that this is going to change. What are his views on free movement, the Leave camp's big potential calling card?

    Even if he is for free movement, it doesn't matter. The key point is that the government we elect gets to choose who comes here... If they are elected on a platform of free movement, so be it. If the public don't like it they can vote them out next time

    Not sure that works. It's convoluted. If you have the de facto leader of the Leave campaign saying he is not opposed to the free movement of people within a UK/EU single market, then practically speaking what you have is this de facto leader saying one thing and other prominent members of the Leave camp saying another. And immigration is supposed to be Leave's big trump card - which it should be, of course. What's more, people know that there is never going to be a UKIP government (or a Labour one for the foreseeable future, for that matter), so it is what Tories say about Leave and Remain that actually matters.
    It's not really convoluted, it's as simple as this

    The elected government should be able to decide our immigration policy

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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Katie Hopkins has promised to do the same if Brexit fails.
    TGOHF said:

    Indigo said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Boris has just been presented with his first test as a future prime minister. And he's failed it > Telegraph > https://t.co/P7fG8Klygp

    LOL what did you expect Arch-Europhile Hodges to say ? "Actually I think Boris joining Leave was a damn good idea, he reaches the parts other Tories can't reach, and I look forward to seeing him in the campaign" ? Get real.
    Hodges whilst a guru on internal Labour party Kremlinology does not have a good record at taking the pulse of the country on Europe.

    Hence why he was running down Westminster in shorts last month.

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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Boris Johnson: 'I remember hearing people say Throgmorton Street would crack and great mutant rats would gnaw faces if we didn't join euro'
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,113
    Fenster said:

    DavidL said:


    Yugoslavia? Ukraine? Where is this peace you talk of? I think the EU has done a poor job of securing peace on our continent since the cold war meant it wasn't just a case of Europe on both sides of the curtain doing what they were told.

    Gove's piece was excellent but we still need to be clear what the alternative is: in the EEA or out of it? In the single market or out of it (presumably with some sort of trade deal)? Gove is capable of giving intellectual coherence to Leave but whether the others on that platform will agree with him (including Boris) remains to be seen.

    Peace within the EU countries.. It actually gives extra credence to the argument because Yugoslavia and Ukraine are both outside the EU. I don't think there's any denying that relationships between Germany, France Italy and the UK have improved through political union.
    Yes the respective fates of the ex-Warsaw pact countries which turned to the EU and those which remained in the Russian sphere is a very good advert for the EU. There can be no doubt that the Kremlin is hoping for Brexit and the start of the unravelling of the EU so they can more easily corrupt the politics of Europe.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    OllyT said:

    Boris loves to be loved. He's not a conviction politician, particularly where the EU is concerned.

    What I ask myself is whether Boris will really want to go down in history as the person who more or less single handedly took the UK out of the EU. He might surprise me and really go for it but I think it more likely his role will become less and less visible between now and June and his comments will become ever more equivocal and dithery to the point where by June it will hard to tell which side he is actually on.

    It looks like more than half of Tory MPs will be behind him, and the majority of the voluntary party, that will probably be sufficient love to keep him interested.
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    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: testing underway. I believe the McLaren has yet to explode, so it seems to have improved from last year.

    Ecclestone's been whining again, and the former F1 doctor Gary Hartstein has tweeted (with occasional fruity language) several notes to him [at first glance, they seem very sensible].
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    TGOHF said:

    .@David_Cameron's EU migrant benefit brake could lead to surge of arrivals before deadline:

    Hang on, I thought there was supposed to be nothing to it.
    Its the same as the Schrodinger migrant - simultaneously 'taking our jobs' while 'living on benefits'.....
    You don't need Schrodinger to square that circle. Brownian tax credits do the job.....
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    SUN EXCL: We'll blow our flagship election pledge on immigration if we stay in EU - Culture Secretary John Whittingdale; https://t.co/XrFy4ONSmD
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    OllyT said:

    Boris loves to be loved. He's not a conviction politician, particularly where the EU is concerned.

    What I ask myself is whether Boris will really want to go down in history as the person who more or less single handedly took the UK out of the EU. He might surprise me and really go for it but I think it more likely his role will become less and less visible between now and June and his comments will become ever more equivocal and dithery to the point where by June it will hard to tell which side he is actually on.

    Boris avoids press conferences, debates and set-piece TV interviews. That has always been his modus operandi (if you see him perform when he cannot avoid them you'll understand why) and in the relatively low scrutiny London mayor job that has served him pretty well. Whether he can continue to do it is another matter. If Boris wants to be seen as the leader of the Leave campaign then he will have to lead. That, though, will mean developing a coherent argument, mastering some detail and subjecting himself to difficult questions. We'll see about that ...

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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    isam said:

    The elected government should be able to decide our immigration policy

    There used to be a word for that.. what was in now ? Oh yes... democracy.

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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Yes the respective fates of the ex-Warsaw pact countries which turned to the EU and those which remained in the Russian sphere is a very good advert for the EU. There can be no doubt that the Kremlin is hoping for Brexit and the start of the unravelling of the EU so they can more easily corrupt the politics of Europe.

    NATO ?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,113

    MaxPB said:

    If Boris leads Leave to win then he is set to take over from Dave. That's the gamble he has taken. If Remain gets a narrow win, Dave will have to give Boris a decent job to "heal the wounds" in the Tory party, though I expect won't be a great office given that May, Hammond and Osborne are all in the Remain camp. Boris will be in trouble if Remain get 55+, at that point it's no longer close enough for the PM feel the need to appease the Leave camp.

    It's a career defining gambit, if Boris can pull it off then he will be remembered as the man who took Britain out of the EU against grain of his own party and PM.

    That depends on two things:
    * Whether he does actually take the UK out of the EU.
    * If he does, what kind of Brexit deal he negotiates.
    Hey, that's an interesting point. Are you suggesting Boris would then say 'I'll renegotiate a better deal than Cameron and then we'll stay'?
    He must equate brinkmanship with leadership.
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    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: testing underway. I believe the McLaren has yet to explode, so it seems to have improved from last year.

    Ecclestone's been whining again, and the former F1 doctor Gary Hartstein has tweeted (with occasional fruity language) several notes to him [at first glance, they seem very sensible].

    https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/701715492222984192
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Conor McGinn
    New poll of Labour members: 75% ABC1 & 40% read Guardian. Lots to be done to engage & reflect working class concerns https://t.co/fVcxbf0sbc
  • Options
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Indigo said:

    Can some of the diehard Leavers clarify a point for me? o Leavers actually believe? Or is it, as usual, the case that the diehard Leavers want to have their cake and eat it?

    There's actually no contradiction, though I'm not sure it's worth spending the time explaining why to a devout Remainian who has made up his mind because he thinks Farage is a gay-basher and doesn't trust the public to keep him out of government.
    Boris is a massive media figure, as a simple for-instance he has more Twitter followers than all the main party leaders put together,he is going to engage people, especially young voters, like no one else in Leave.

    99% of voters are not going to give a crap about the minutiae of the deal, they are going to go on gut feel and what key people say. Attempts by Remainers to dissect the details of his text is futile, beyond the obsessives here no one cares.

    If Dave runs around doing Project Fear, and Boris runs around doing hopey changey sunlight uplands stuff, its going to be interesting.

    Is Boris going to do much running around, though? His usual style is not to debate, not to do press conferences and not to do in-depth interviews. There is no indication that this is going to change. What are his views on free movement, the Leave camp's big potential calling card?

    Even if he is for free movement, it doesn't matter. The key point is that the government we elect gets to choose who comes here... If they are elected on a platform of free movement, so be it. If the public don't like it they can vote them out next time

    Not sure that works. It's convoluted. If you have the de facto leader of the Leave campaign saying he is not opposed to the free movement of people within a UK/EU single market, then practically speaking what you have is this de facto leader saying one thing and other prominent members of the Leave camp saying another. And immigration is supposed to be Leave's big trump card - which it should be, of course. What's more, people know that there is never going to be a UKIP government (or a Labour one for the foreseeable future, for that matter), so it is what Tories say about Leave and Remain that actually matters.
    It's not really convoluted, it's as simple as this

    The elected government should be able to decide our immigration policy

    It does. The elected government supports free movement of people within the EU.

  • Options

    TGOHF said:

    .@David_Cameron's EU migrant benefit brake could lead to surge of arrivals before deadline:

    Hang on, I thought there was supposed to be nothing to it.
    Minor tax and benefit changes might affect timing of behaviour without changing the direction. I could see people coming to the UK a couple months early. But its likely to be only a few thousand and this will be offset by fewer coming after deadline. So its a crap argument even if correct!!
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Join offshore fable peddlers' annex freely? Not he! (9,5,2,7,7)
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,113
    Indigo said:

    Yes the respective fates of the ex-Warsaw pact countries which turned to the EU and those which remained in the Russian sphere is a very good advert for the EU. There can be no doubt that the Kremlin is hoping for Brexit and the start of the unravelling of the EU so they can more easily corrupt the politics of Europe.

    NATO ?
    NATO doesn't affect energy policy, trade, immigration, or any of a whole range of issues that Russia has an interest in influencing across the continent.

    And regarding NATO, Russia seems to be doing a good job in creating an open conflict with one of its members in which NATO will not help, therefore bringing the future of the whole organisation in doubt.
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    Mr. Observer, can the elected government, within the EU, choose otherwise?

    Mr. Eagles, cheers for flagging up that tweet :)
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    Fenster said:

    DavidL said:

    Fenster said:

    Matt Ridley in Times makes a more detailed case here

    Linked earlier. Well worth a read.

    Fenster said:

    I just read Michael Gove's reasons for leaving.

    The big businesses bit got me - using the regulations to crush small businesses and make lives worse for employees (I see the grinding results of it every day). That makes me fear for the future of our children more than anything else - I see people in our factory who are akin to zero-hour contract slaves.

    I'm a natural risk taker, so screw it, I'm gonna vote for leave.

    Thank you!

    Sentimentally, I feel like a spiteful bastard voting to leave. The peace we've had in Europe for 60 years and the close bonds between once warring countries. I mean, it is impressive, and really it should trump all else., but there's something noble in that.

    I trust him.
    Yugoslavia? Ukraine? Where is this peace you talk of? I think the EU has done a poor job of securing peace on our continent since the cold war meant it wasn't just a case of Europe on both sides of the curtain doing what they were told.

    Gove's piece was excellent but we still need to be clear what the alternative is: in the EEA or out of it? In the single market or out of it (presumably with some sort of trade deal)? Gove is capable of giving intellectual coherence to Leave but whether the others on that platform will agree with him (including Boris) remains to be seen.
    Peace within the EU countries.. It actually gives extra credence to the argument because Yugoslavia and Ukraine are both outside the EU. I don't think there's any denying that relationships between Germany, France Italy and the UK have improved through political union.

    Anyway, voting to leave or not is, and should be, a very conflicting issue. I admire anyone who is absolutely sure on it, because it is fraught with ifs and buts. I'm willing to take the risk because even if we do leave and fall flat on our faces, at least we have the power within our own grasp to change things.
    You can certainly say relations between Italy and Germany have worsened from political union. Germany's name is poison in Italian politics right now!!
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966


    It does. The elected government supports free movement of people within the EU.

    Pish. Cameron asked for a hard cap on immigrant numbers in this very renegotiation and got told it was a non-starter. The UK government does not control the immigration policy of the UK.

  • Options

    Join offshore fable peddlers' annex freely? Not he! (9,5,2,7,7)

    Alexander Boris De Pfeffel Johnson
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,962
    edited February 2016

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Indigo said:

    Can some of the diehard Leavers clarify a point for me? o Leavers actually believe? Or is it, as usual, the case that the diehard Leavers want to have their cake and eat it?

    There's actually no contradiction, though I'm not sure it's worth spending the time explaining why to a devout Remainian who has made up his mind because he thinks Farage is a gay-basher and doesn't trust the public to keep him out of government.
    Boris is a massive media figure, as a ds stuff, its going to be interesting.

    Is Boris going to do much running around, though? His usual style is not to debate, not to do press conferences and not to do in-depth interviews. There is no indication that this is going to change. What are his views on free movement, the Leave camp's big potential calling card?

    Even if he is for free movement, it doesn't matter. The key point is that the government we elect gets to choose who comes here... If they are elected on a platform of free movement, so be it. If the public don't like it they can vote them out next time

    Not sure that works. It's convoluted. If you have the de facto leader of the Leave campaign saying he is not opposed to the free movement of people within a UK/EU single market, then practically speaking what you have is this de facto leader saying one thing and other prominent members of the Leave camp saying another. And immigration is supposed to be Leave's big trump card - which it should be, of course. What's more, people know that there is never going to be a UKIP government (or a Labour one for the foreseeable future, for that matter), so it is what Tories say about Leave and Remain that actually matters.
    It's not really convoluted, it's as simple as this

    The elected government should be able to decide our immigration policy

    It does. The elected government supports free movement of people within the EU.

    Even if it didn't we'd still have to put up with it

    It likes to make promises that it can't keep, then blame membership of the EU. If we leave, we can take away this option and hold them to account
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,113
    As an aside, the value future party leader bet off the back of a successful referendum campaign logically has to be Will Straw.
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    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Indigo said:

    Can some of the diehard Leavers clarify a point for me? o Leavers actually believe? Or is it, as usual, the case that the diehard Leavers want to have their cake and eat it?

    There's actually no contradiction, though I'm not sure it's worth spending the time explaining why to a devout Remainian who has made up his mind because he thinks Farage is a gay-basher and doesn't trust the public to keep him out of government.
    Boris is a massive media figure, as a ds stuff, its going to be interesting.

    Is Boris going to do much running around, though? His usual style is not to debate, not to do press conferences and not to do in-depth interviews. There is no indication that this is going to change. What are his views on free movement, the Leave camp's big potential calling card?

    Even if he is for free movement, it doesn't matter. The key point is that the government we elect gets to choose who comes here... If they are elected on a platform of free movement, so be it. If the public don't like it they can vote them out next time

    Not sure that works. It's convoluted. If you have the de facto leader of the Leave campaign saying he is not opposed to the free movement of people within a UK/EU single market, then practically speaking what you have is this de facto leader saying one thing and other prominent members of the Leave camp saying another. And immigration is supposed to be Leave's big trump card - which it should be, of course. What's more, people know that there is never going to be a UKIP government (or a Labour one for the foreseeable future, for that matter), so it is what Tories say about Leave and Remain that actually matters.
    It's not really convoluted, it's as simple as this

    The elected government should be able to decide our immigration policy

    It does. The elected government supports free movement of people within the EU.

    Yes but it likes to make promises that it can't keep, then blame membership of the EU. If we leave, we can take away this option and hold them to account

    As I say, convoluted. Vote Leave to show that the government does not keep its promises about immigration, but then vote them in again anyway. If Leave only becomes meaningful if UKIP win a general election then Leave will not be meaningful.

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    Indigo said:


    It does. The elected government supports free movement of people within the EU.

    Pish. Cameron asked for a hard cap on immigrant numbers in this very renegotiation and got told it was a non-starter. The UK government does not control the immigration policy of the UK.

    Then why isn't Cameron advocating Leave? Clearly free moment is not a huge issue for him.
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    Fenster said:

    DavidL said:

    Fenster said:

    Matt Ridley in Times makes a more detailed case here

    Linked earlier. Well worth a read.

    Fenster said:

    I just read Michael Gove's reasons for leaving.

    The big businesses bit got me - using the regulations to crush small businesses and make lives worse for employees (I see the grinding results of it every day). That makes me fear for the future of our children more than anything else - I see people in our factory who are akin to zero-hour contract slaves.

    I'm a natural risk taker, so screw it, I'm gonna vote for leave.

    Thank you!

    Sentimentally, I feel like a spiteful bastard voting to leave. The peace we've had in Europe for 60 years and the close bonds between once warring countries. I mean, it is impressive, and really it should trump all else.

    But the creeping powers, the tentacles stealing away, smidge by smidge, bits of our sovereignty. It has always bothered me and should bother everyone who cares about politics. I regard Gove (the Tories version of Ed Balls) as a decent, intellectually challenging, free-thinking, political hard-nut. He might be crushingly unpopular (again, like Balls) due to his stridency, but there's something noble in that.

    I trust him.
    Yugoslavia? Ukraine? Where is this peace you talk of? I think the EU has done a poor job of securing peace on our continent since the cold war meant it wasn't just a case of Europe on both sides of the curtain doing what they were told.

    Gove's piece was excellent but we still need to be clear what the alternative is: in the EEA or out of it? In the single market or out of it (presumably with some sort of trade deal)? Gove is capable of giving intellectual coherence to Leave but whether the others on that platform will agree with him (including Boris) remains to be seen.
    Peace within the EU countries.. It actually gives extra credence to the argument because Yugoslavia and Ukraine are both outside the EU. I don't think there's any denying that relationships between Germany, France Italy and the UK have improved through political union.
    Nope. That ignores history.

    The balance of power between NATO and the Warsaw pact is what kept peace in Europe for 40 or more years both inside and outside the EU. It is notable that it was only after the collapse of the Warsaw pact that conflict within Europe was no longer seen as an existential threat by the two superpowers. The EU had nothing to do with this. Indeed as you point out Yugoslavia and Ukraine have happened following the collapse of that balance of power between NATO and the Russians.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    John Rentoul
    Tally of Tory MPs for Out creeping up again, 143 vs 134 for In @GuidoFawkes https://t.co/gaiAY0XyZz (Spectator also has Gibb, Swire for In)
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Sky
    BREAK: Defence Minister Julian Brazier is another member of defence team to back BREXIT.
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    Mr. Observer, can the elected government, within the EU, choose otherwise?

    Mr. Eagles, cheers for flagging up that tweet :)

    I voted Alcibiades.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Just imagine George Osborne's dilemma this morning.

    Just a week ago, he could have expected the tory party to eat and happily choke on his Brownian sh8t sandwich of a budget.

    Now, there is a ready made alternative leader and chancellor in waiting, people who might actually balance the budget sometime this century.

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941
    edited February 2016

    Conor McGinn
    New poll of Labour members: 75% ABC1 & 40% read Guardian. Lots to be done to engage & reflect working class concerns https://t.co/fVcxbf0sbc

    Nick Cohen is spot on about this:

    If you have the honesty to acknowledge your good fortune, which may well be dependent on who your parents were and what advantages they gave you, you should accept another hard truth. A Conservative government suits you very well. You may profoundly disagree with it, but you have a financial interest in keeping it in power. By supporting Corbyn and his fellow travellers, you are helping the Conservatives, who won’t raise taxes on wealthy people such as, well, you, and will when it can cut them.
    And maybe you are doing something worse. Maybe you are not as concerned with building a just society, as you claim. Perhaps, like so many wealthy revolutionaries, you want to use the victims of injustice as an army of silent extras in an agitprop psychodrama, directed by and starring yourself. You don’t care, if the revolution never comes. You do not worry that Corbyn and Momentum are ensuring that the Conservatives stay in power until 2025 or 2030. You want to vent your fury, fight your sectarian wars, hate the Tory scum and destroy the Blairite traitors, without once noticing the grateful smiles on the faces of Cameron and Osborne.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/rich-come-left-wing/

    Recognise anyone?
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016

    Indigo said:


    It does. The elected government supports free movement of people within the EU.

    Pish. Cameron asked for a hard cap on immigrant numbers in this very renegotiation and got told it was a non-starter. The UK government does not control the immigration policy of the UK.

    Then why isn't Cameron advocating Leave? Clearly free moment is not a huge issue for him.
    My daughter playing crap music in her bedroom rather too loudly isn't a huge issue for me, it doesn't mean I approve of it, or don't want it to stop, I just have other things further up the priority list.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,962

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Indigo said:

    Can some of the diehard Leavers clarify a point for me? o Leavers actually believe? Or is it, as usual, the case that the diehard Leavers want to have their cake and eat it?

    There's actually no contradiction, though I'm not sure it's worth spending the time explaining why to a devout Remainian who has made up his mind because he thinks Farage is a gay-basher and doesn't trust the public to keep him out of government.
    Boris is a massive media figure, as a ds stuff, its going to be interesting.

    Is Boris going to do much running around, though? His usual style is not to debate, not to do press conferences and not to do in-depth interviews. There is no indication that this is going to change. What are his views on free movement, the Leave camp's big potential calling card?

    Even if he is for free movement, it doesn't matter. The key point is that the government we elect gets to choose who comes here... If they are elected on a platform of free movement, so be it. If the public don't like it they can vote them out next time

    Not er saying one thing and other prominent members of the Leave camp saying another. uture, for that matter), so it is what Tories say about Leave and Remain that actually matters.
    It's not really convoluted, it's as simple as this

    The elected government should be able to decide our immigration policy

    It does. The elected government supports free movement of people within the EU.

    Yes but it likes to make promises that it can't keep, then blame membership of the EU. If we leave, we can take away this option and hold them to account

    As I say, convoluted. Vote Leave to show that the government does not keep its promises about immigration, but then vote them in again anyway. If Leave only becomes meaningful if UKIP win a general election then Leave will not be meaningful.

    No you are making it convoluted to try and win an argument

    If we leave we can control our immigration policy, if we stay, we can't

    Simple
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    Mr. Eagles, I went for Pericles.

    That said, it's a bit like voting for the better team before a rugby match.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    Indigo said:


    It does. The elected government supports free movement of people within the EU.

    Pish. Cameron asked for a hard cap on immigrant numbers in this very renegotiation and got told it was a non-starter. The UK government does not control the immigration policy of the UK.

    Then why isn't Cameron advocating Leave? Clearly free moment is not a huge issue for him.
    Probably because he's a corporatist and backs big business and multinats much like Blair and Brown did.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Clownish Boris is motivated by a lust for power. (ICYMI Bruce "the Brute" Anderson sticks it to Boris) https://t.co/njJKQDMcY2 via @CapX
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Andy Bell
    thanks to @theousherwood who points out Marina, wife of @BorisJohnson being sworn in as QC today by Lord Chancellor Michael Gove #euref
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016
    What is it about this issue, several well respected posters on this forum appear to be prepared to completely shred their credibility and argue semantics and that black equals white just to try and provide some vaguely credible support for the remain camp. I have the luxury of not having any credibility to start with, but several others are going to have a long fight to be taken seriously again.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Clownish Boris is motivated by a lust for power. (ICYMI Bruce "the Brute" Anderson sticks it to Boris) https://t.co/njJKQDMcY2 via @CapX

    Of course he is. All us Brexiteers are. We don;t want some unelected toerag in Brussels deciding how to mess up our lives, we want the power to do that ourselves!!
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