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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meet the man who could win the referendum for Leave

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,317
    This is so blatant - it is blindingly obvious - but blindingly brilliant at the same time.

    If Boris really wants to leave the EU he has to lead the Out campaign and debate Cameron. But he's not going to do that - which means his impact will be very limited.

    What this is about is Boris getting the majority of Out MPs in the 2019 leadership election - which he HAS to get in order to get into the Final 2. This move seals that for him - there is now no chance of anyone like Fox getting most of those MPs and scraping into the final 2.

    With most Out MPs plus a fair number of other MPs who will vote for him on "general appeal to voters" grounds this just about guarantees he makes the Final 2 - and in turn makes him highly likely to win the leadership in 2019 - as he'll be popular with members both for supporting Out and on general charisma grounds.

    Boris then becomes PM in 2019 on a more EU sceptic platform but with us still in the EU. And with the UK still in tact (as Scotland won't have another Independence vote).

    This is great news for all Con supporters who were dreading someone like Fox somehow coming through as leader and throwing away the 2020 GE. Boris and the Con party as a whole are now perfectly placed for 2020.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Spit

    Montie
    Tories' leading intellectual force (Gove) and its most popular star (Boris) have decided against PM's deal - concludes @faisalislam #skynews
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    tlg86 said:

    Indigo said:

    Boris has more Twitter followers than Dave Cameron, Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron put together :)

    I have more twitter followers than Tim Farron and I'm not on Twitter.
    rofl
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    tlg86 said:

    Indigo said:

    Boris has more Twitter followers than Dave Cameron, Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron put together :)

    I have more twitter followers than Tim Farron and I'm not on Twitter.
    How can I put this... about twice as many people will have seen Tim Farron's last tweet as saw that picture of Farage, Gorgeous George etc just now ;)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,994
    Indigo said:

    Boris has more Twitter followers than Dave Cameron, Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron put together :)

    Twitter and Britain aren't the same thing. A certain First Lord of the Treasury once said that.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    What a shock - Boris will not be playing much of a role in the campaign and will not be debating. Whoever would have thought it?

    That looks like a serious mistake to me if true. He needs to lead from the front. He's made his choice, he should follow it through.
    Trying to keep his hands clean I guess, since this is going to get seriously vicious, blue on blue.

    But he needs Leave to win or at least come very close. They really need him front and centre.
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    The chief spokesmen and women for Leave look like the extended Addams Family. Of course Remain are going to draw attention to the carnival freakshow aspect of their opponents.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    The chief spokesmen and women for Leave look like the extended Addams Family. Of course Remain are going to draw attention to the carnival freakshow aspect of their opponents.

    err you have the actual Adams family on your side

    guns and all
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited February 2016
    'Here are your new colleagues Mr. Johnson'

    Wonder how Cameron likes his new colleagues Corbyn, IRA McDonnell,Abbott & co ?
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    New Thread New Thread

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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    RobD said:

    To those members of the media who read this blog - when referring to the PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE STOP CALLING HIM JUST BY HIS SURNAME. IT IS EITHER THE PRIME MINISTER, OR DAVID CAMERON. THIS IS THE "GREAT OFFICE OF STATE" AND SHOULD BE RESPECTED AS SUCH, WHICH INCLUDES THE PERSON WHO HOLDS THE OFFICE.

    SHOW SOME BLOODY MANNERS.

    Don't you have any manners? He should be referred to as "First Lord of the Treasury".
    or Minister for the Civil Service!
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,025

    viewcode said:

    No they aren't. Unless you're happy with including everyone for Remain with McIRA

    Although I am happy to concede that their electorate are REMAIN, in previous threads I have disputed that Gerry Adams or MartinMcGuinness have advocated a REMAIN vote and have asked for a source. Which has not yet been provided.

    I know that from a LEAVE pov this may be too good to check, but I'm not sure it's factually accurate.
    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-says-north-should-be-able-stay-in-eu-in-a-brexit-1.2182397
    But that's not the same thing, is it? In that link, Adams advocates a separate NI-only referendum.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208

    The chief spokesmen and women for Leave look like the extended Addams Family. Of course Remain are going to draw attention to the carnival freakshow aspect of their opponents.

    err you have the actual Adams family on your side

    guns and all
    Very good!
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    Jonathan said:

    Boris looked shifty today.

    He looked what he is - someone who wants to succeed Dave, ideally later this year.

    His statement was very equivocal - except the bit about not debating anyone involved in doing the deal he apparently so opposed to. If I were an Outer I would not want Boris negotiating Brexit.

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,152

    The chief spokesmen and women for Leave look like the extended Addams Family. Of course Remain are going to draw attention to the carnival freakshow aspect of their opponents.

    The Adams Family lasted longer than the EU has so far....
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The 'racist,xenophobic' Remain line does not stick with characters like Boris and Zac.

    Likewise, Galloway is hardly a Little Englander.

    Who do Remain have? Blair, Clegg, Cameron? They look like different cheeks off the same backside to most of the electorate.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    No they aren't. Unless you're happy with including everyone for Remain with McIRA

    Although I am happy to concede that their electorate are REMAIN, in previous threads I have disputed that Gerry Adams or MartinMcGuinness have advocated a REMAIN vote and have asked for a source. Which has not yet been provided.

    I know that from a LEAVE pov this may be too good to check, but I'm not sure it's factually accurate.
    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-says-north-should-be-able-stay-in-eu-in-a-brexit-1.2182397
    But that's not the same thing, is it? In that link, Adams advocates a separate NI-only referendum.
    http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/34764
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    MikeL said:

    This is so blatant - it is blindingly obvious - but blindingly brilliant at the same time.

    If Boris really wants to leave the EU he has to lead the Out campaign and debate Cameron. But he's not going to do that - which means his impact will be very limited.

    What this is about is Boris getting the majority of Out MPs in the 2019 leadership election - which he HAS to get in order to get into the Final 2. This move seals that for him - there is now no chance of anyone like Fox getting most of those MPs and scraping into the final 2.

    With most Out MPs plus a fair number of other MPs who will vote for him on "general appeal to voters" grounds this just about guarantees he makes the Final 2 - and in turn makes him highly likely to win the leadership in 2019 - as he'll be popular with members both for supporting Out and on general charisma grounds.

    Boris then becomes PM in 2019 on a more EU sceptic platform but with us still in the EU. And with the UK still in tact (as Scotland won't have another Independence vote).

    This is great news for all Con supporters who were dreading someone like Fox somehow coming through as leader and throwing away the 2020 GE. Boris and the Con party as a whole are now perfectly placed for 2020.

    I'll be amazed if that's anything like the scenario in 2020. The global sovereign debt crisis is going to turn the world upside down which renders all presumed state of the world predictions for 2019 and 2020 null and void right now, UK politics included.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,025

    The chief spokesmen and women for Leave look like the extended Addams Family. Of course Remain are going to draw attention to the carnival freakshow aspect of their opponents.

    err you have the actual Adams family on your side

    guns and all
    As per the ongoing discussion with myself and Richard Tyndall, I dispute the factual accuracy of this.
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    The chief spokesmen and women for Leave look like the extended Addams Family. Of course Remain are going to draw attention to the carnival freakshow aspect of their opponents.

    but cameron is joined with Corbyn, McDonnell, Nicola Sturgeon, Gerry Adams, and the Green Party, plus Eddie Izzard, that looks more of a freak show to me!
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    chestnut said:

    Who do Remain have? Blair, Clegg, Cameron? They look like different cheeks off the same backside to most of the electorate.

    Indeed. One worked for the EU, One works for the EU, and one sold out to the EU.

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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    viewcode said:

    The chief spokesmen and women for Leave look like the extended Addams Family. Of course Remain are going to draw attention to the carnival freakshow aspect of their opponents.

    err you have the actual Adams family on your side

    guns and all
    As per the ongoing discussion with myself and Richard Tyndall, I dispute the factual accuracy of this.
    I have linked it for you three times now.

    http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/34764

    Read the actual text, not just the title.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Indigo said:

    Boris has more Twitter followers than Dave Cameron, Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron put together :)

    When the media calls someone a "big beast", they had Boris in mind. To me, he is just a fat and opportunistic b*stard !
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    Spit

    Montie
    Tories' leading intellectual force (Gove) and its most popular star (Boris) have decided against PM's deal - concludes @faisalislam #skynews

    Sunday Times reports that 'City leaders breath collective sigh of relief' over the results of Cameron's negotiations. Countries outside the eurozone have had confirmed their right to regulate their financial institutions.
    Chris Cummings of the trade body City UK quoted as saying the EU is confirmed a multiple currency zone and the importance of this cannot be underestimated. 50 FTSE100 leaders to write an official letter shortly.
    I suppose Miss Plato you and other Leavers know better than all of that. I salute your indifatigability.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,025
    Indigo said:

    viewcode said:

    The chief spokesmen and women for Leave look like the extended Addams Family. Of course Remain are going to draw attention to the carnival freakshow aspect of their opponents.

    err you have the actual Adams family on your side

    guns and all
    As per the ongoing discussion with myself and Richard Tyndall, I dispute the factual accuracy of this.
    I have linked it for you three times now.

    http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/34764

    Read the actual text, not just the title.
    Oh, I see, thank you.

    Although I need to point out that I am technically correct (they have not explicitly advocated a "REMAIN" vote in this referendum), I assume their stance is a way of doing it by proxy.
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    chestnut said:

    The 'racist,xenophobic' Remain line does not stick with characters like Boris and Zac.

    Likewise, Galloway is hardly a Little Englander.

    Who do Remain have? Blair, Clegg, Cameron? They look like different cheeks off the same backside to most of the electorate.

    You are dredging in a very shitty river. Shame on you.. and if I may say so you are clueless about what 'most' of the electorate think.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    I would feel very sorry for any public servants working in any department of government with Boris Johnson at its head.His problem is that the only thing Boris Johnson is interested in certainly not Europe,it's Boris Johnson.Take out the name and he is lazy and incompetent who would want to have in charge of a fish and chip shop.He is not a leader but a follower.
    Once Eddie Mair and a few others have interviewed him properly,more and more people will see for themselves,he's just not up to it and will end up a liablility for the Leave campaign.
    Panic decision by William Hill.After a months intense questioning,Boris Johson will fold.
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    Spit

    Montie
    Tories' leading intellectual force (Gove) and its most popular star (Boris) have decided against PM's deal - concludes @faisalislam #skynews

    Sunday Times reports that 'City leaders breath collective sigh of relief' over the results of Cameron's negotiations. Countries outside the eurozone have had confirmed their right to regulate their financial institutions.
    Chris Cummings of the trade body City UK quoted as saying the EU is confirmed a multiple currency zone and the importance of this cannot be underestimated. 50 FTSE100 leaders to write an official letter shortly.
    I suppose Miss Plato you and other Leavers know better than all of that. I salute your indifatigability.
    Would you remind us what the change in the share price since 2000 is for these FTSE100 companies.

    And what the change in their executive 'earnings' is.
This discussion has been closed.