Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meet the man who could win the referendum for Leave

24

Comments

  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Fenster said:

    Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.

    If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.

    If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.

    Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?

    Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.

    It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.

    So let's see what he says about Brexit. He wants to be the one negotiating it. He should give us his red lines. I wonder if they are the same as Gove's or IDS's.

  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    SeanT said:

    Fenster said:

    Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.

    If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.

    If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.

    Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?

    Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.

    It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.
    None of us can see the future, but will you ever regret voting for the British people to be governed by their elected representatives, according to their own laws, trading with the whole world?
  • Options
    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.

    If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.

    If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.

    Yeah, that's why I said 'if' (though he has always been adept at taking the piss out of the EU's jobsworth rulings).

    But I did hear on the news earlier that Boris has already set out his negotiating positions (months back) and he deems them not met, especially with regard to the city/financial sector.

    So safeguards for the City. I wonder what he'll accept on free movement.

  • Options
    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    Osborne? Yawn! The big question is which side the City of London will back, and the big indication of that will be what Boris does next.

    I noticed William James at Reuters saying the City of London backs Cameron's support for continued EU membership, but there's no hard evidence for that.

    FTSE-100 companies have been polled, sure, but the City isn't the stock exchange. Share trading in the City is dwarfed by other financial activities. That's both in absolute terms - the forex market in the City is many times bigger than the stock market, and forex trading is much bigger than share trading globally - and in terms of the City's ranking in the world: top for forex, with about 40% of the world market; third place for shares, a long way behind New York.

    The City dominates Britain, Boris will be on the winning side in the referendum, and those two statements are related.
  • Options
    Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    edited February 2016
    John_N said:

    Osborne? Yawn! The big question is which side the City of London will back, and the big indication of that will be what Boris does next.

    I noticed William James at Reuters saying the City of London backs Cameron's support for continued EU membership, but there's no hard evidence for that.

    FTSE-100 companies have been polled, sure, but the City isn't the stock exchange. Share trading in the City is dwarfed by other financial activities. That's both in absolute terms - the forex market in the City is many times bigger than the stock market, and forex trading is much bigger than share trading globally - and in terms of the City's ranking in the world: top for forex, with about 40% of the world market; third place for shares, a long way behind New York.

    The City dominates Britain, Boris will be on the winning side in the referendum, and those two statements are related.

    The City is also very keen on free movement of goods, capital, people and services. Expect Boris Brexit to reflect that.

  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    LauraK
    IDS also reveals Cameron tried to get rest of EU to agree a brake on total number of EU migrants who could come to UK but got nowhere
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited February 2016
    @SeanT


    I have similar EU feelings, although the issue doesn't particularly move me. The drunken anarchist in me would love to tell all those arrogant suited luvvies in Brussels to fuck off while the irritatingly sensible good conscience in me realises no good will ever come of my drunken spite.

    I'm happy that Boris has chosen the Brexit side though, because he is undeniably the most coruscatingly literate put-down artist in UK politics, after you.

    He'll have them squirming.
  • Options
    That IDS comment on free movement is very interesting. It looks like an EU red line if we are going to want continued access to the free market post-Brexit.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    It's rare that in all my years here someone spouts complete nonsense, congratulations.

    You've a downer on our biggest income generating industry, for what reason exactly?
    John_N said:

    Osborne? Yawn! The big question is which side the City of London will back, and the big indication of that will be what Boris does next.

    I noticed William James at Reuters saying the City of London backs Cameron's support for continued EU membership, but there's no hard evidence for that.

    FTSE-100 companies have been polled, sure, but the City isn't the stock exchange. Share trading in the City is dwarfed by other financial activities. That's both in absolute terms - the forex market in the City is many times bigger than the stock market, and forex trading is much bigger than share trading globally - and in terms of the City's ranking in the world: top for forex, with about 40% of the world market; third place for shares, a long way behind New York.

    The City dominates Britain, Boris will be on the winning side in the referendum, and those two statements are related.

  • Options
    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited February 2016

    Breaking...lunch over...England lose the cricket...BoJo makes his official call.

    Boris Johnson to campaign to leave EU

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35626621

    Hardly an official call. My little bird tells me Boris will back Leave, but I'm not taking the BBC's word for it. His statement is due at 2200 GMT today, presumably simultaneously with its publication in the Torygraph, and I doubt his office have circulated it under embargo six hours early. I may be wrong, of course. There'll be some disinfo, and well, y'know, "the BBC understands"! :-)

    The price of Leave at the Betfair exchange has risen by 14% in the past few hours, back to where it was before the Brussels deal was announced.
  • Options
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Observer, South Korea doesn't have such an agreement.

    F1: just seen the first Haas car. Apparently it's the HaasVF16. Speculation is rife that VF = Very Ferrari.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    Fenster said:

    Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.

    If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.

    If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.

    Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?

    Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.

    It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.
    None of us can see the future, but will you ever regret voting for the British people to be governed by their elected representatives, according to their own laws, trading with the whole world?
    I might well regret if Scotland then left, yes. Would they leave? Hard to say. I reckon they would bloviate a lot, but then possibly bottle it. Can't be sure tho. It's a huge unknown.

    My other big worry is the City. On which so much of our prosperity depends.

    My heart says LEAVE, my head says STAY FOR NOW, my liver says CAN WE HAVE SOME MORE OF THAT NICE RIOJA
    Perhaps you should just take some Rioja rather than a blood pack to Africa with you? It'd have about the same effect...
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    edited February 2016

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Observer, South Korea doesn't have such an agreement.

    F1: just seen the first Haas car. Apparently it's the HaasVF16. Speculation is rife that VF = Very Ferrari.

    It didn't need one for a deal. But it did concede on many other issues.

  • Options


    And where have I criticised Cameron over his handling of Syrian refugees ?

    Sorry I was reacting to your comment that "UK politicians haven't done anything either". Since the discussion had been about Merkel and the EU making things worse with allowing all the refugees in I worked from that point. Clearly I misunderstood.
    No problem.

    My original point was that we're can't blame the EU or Merkel for ALL of the jihadists currently within the EU as some of them would have been home grown while others would have been able to migrate into the EU for other reasons.

    Merkel's madness has caused enough problems to highlight without the need to blame it for other things.

    Very much agreed and in that context yes I agree the UK authorities also have to bear some of the blame.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    That IDS comment on free movement is very interesting. It looks like an EU red line if we are going to want continued access to the free market post-Brexit.

    It all depends on how it is defined.

    The right to come and work is fine (I'd define that as access without a permit once oyu have a job offer). I'm not convinced by the right to come and look for work. And definitely not keen on the concept of the right to reside without work.

    I'd assume that the EU would insist on the 1st, could negotiate the 2nd and give up the 3rd. For Brexit it is the opposite way around - so it seems to be that there is grounds for a deal to be done.
  • Options
    As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.

    I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?

    I'm sick and tired of the media obsession with him. This is now going to turn into the "Battle of the Old Etonians' and all serious debate will be lost.
  • Options

    If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.

    I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.

    kle4 said:

    "Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

    My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

    I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,
    As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?
    What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.
    35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie points
    Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....
    First impressions - Boris for leave may help leave but the issues are greater than Boris. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remain
    I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.
  • Options
    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited February 2016

    It's rare that in all my years here someone spouts complete nonsense, congratulations.

    You've a downer on our biggest income generating industry, for what reason exactly

    No need to be sarcastic, old chap. Let's only congratulate each other when we mean it. What statement have I made that you think is "nonsense" (is it that there's no good reason to think the City supports continued EU membership? if so, please rebut), or is it my attitude you don't like?

    "For what reason, exactly", do you call financial activities an "industry"? Ever get the feeling you've been spun?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    edited February 2016
    Fenster said:

    I'm happy that Boris has chosen the Brexit side though, because he is undeniably the most coruscatingly literate put-down artist in UK politics, after you.

    He'll have them squirming.

    The most risky set piece for Remain is going to be the intervention of Barack Obama, if it happens. BoJo's 'there's a guy called Mitt Romney' speech during the Olympics was one of the most rousing calls to patriotic can-do spirit that we've heard for a very long time and having the Yanks stick their oar in would provide the perfect foil for that kind of bloody-minded optimism.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.

    I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?

    I'm sick and tired of the media obsession with him. This is now going to turn into the "Battle of the Old Etonians' and all serious debate will be lost.

    I agree with most of that,but the leave campaign does need a figure head,how well he will do,will have to be seen.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208

    Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI

    I find it concerning how many polls you partake in.
  • Options
    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited February 2016
    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    Fenster said:

    Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.

    If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.

    If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.

    Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?

    Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.

    It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.
    None of us can see the future, but will you ever regret voting for the British people to be governed by their elected representatives, according to their own laws, trading with the whole world?
    I might well regret if Scotland then left, yes. Would they leave? Hard to say. I reckon they would bloviate a lot, but then possibly bottle it. Can't be sure tho. It's a huge unknown.

    My other big worry is the City. On which so much of our prosperity depends.

    My heart says LEAVE, my head says STAY FOR NOW, my liver says CAN WE HAVE SOME MORE OF THAT NICE RIOJA
    Perhaps you should just take some Rioja rather than a blood pack to Africa with you? It'd have about the same effect...
    Oil at $110 wasn't enough to pursuade them. Oil at $30 certainly won't be.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    I don't believe Cruz is a 70/1 shot for POTUS.

    He has at least a 2% chance surely?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090
    PeterC said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    Fenster said:

    Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.

    If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.

    If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.

    Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?

    Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.

    It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.
    None of us can see the future, but will you ever regret voting for the British people to be governed by their elected representatives, according to their own laws, trading with the whole world?
    I might well regret if Scotland then left, yes. Would they leave? Hard to say. I reckon they would bloviate a lot, but then possibly bottle it. Can't be sure tho. It's a huge unknown.

    My other big worry is the City. On which so much of our prosperity depends.

    My heart says LEAVE, my head says STAY FOR NOW, my liver says CAN WE HAVE SOME MORE OF THAT NICE RIOJA
    Perhaps you should just take some Rioja rather than a blood pack to Africa with you? It'd have about the same effect...
    Oil at $110 wasn't enough to pursuade them. Oil at $30 certainly won't be.
    bollox
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    malcolmg said:

    PeterC said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    Fenster said:

    Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.

    If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.

    If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.

    Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?

    Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.

    It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.
    None of us can see the future, but will you ever regret voting for the British people to be governed by their elected representatives, according to their own laws, trading with the whole world?
    I might well regret if Scotland then left, yes. Would they leave? Hard to say. I reckon they would bloviate a lot, but then possibly bottle it. Can't be sure tho. It's a huge unknown.

    My other big worry is the City. On which so much of our prosperity depends.

    My heart says LEAVE, my head says STAY FOR NOW, my liver says CAN WE HAVE SOME MORE OF THAT NICE RIOJA
    Perhaps you should just take some Rioja rather than a blood pack to Africa with you? It'd have about the same effect...
    Oil at $110 wasn't enough to pursuade them. Oil at $30 certainly won't be.
    bollox
    It's true though, scotland can certainly not afford to be independent now, if it did it would need a bailout of death like the eurozone countries took.
    If the SNP doesn't like Osborne, they will have to deal with the IMF.
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited February 2016
    It's refreshing to see top ranking politicians showing some principle and giving oxygen to proper debate. Cameron and this Tory government have been far more tolerant of dissenting voices than the previous Labour government.

    Could you imagine Gordon Brown's cabinet ministers publicly expressing an alternative argument? Even if one of them had privately desired to nuke Bavaria they would've fallen into line, such was their puny, petrified sycophancy.
  • Options

    If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.

    I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.

    kle4 said:

    "Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

    My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

    I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,
    As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?
    What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.
    35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie points
    Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....
    First impressions - Boris for leave may help leave but the issues are greater than Boris. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remain
    I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.
    Yet there were 'undecided' PBers who emphasised protection for the City would be their key issue but who are now backing REMAIN.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.

    I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.

    kle4 said:

    "Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

    My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

    I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,
    As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?
    What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.
    35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie points
    Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....
    First impressions - Boris for leave may help leave but the issues are greater than Boris. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remain
    I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.
    Yet there were 'undecided' PBers who emphasised protection for the City would be their key issue but who are now backing REMAIN.
    you saw my response on previous thread?
  • Options
    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited February 2016
    The idea that England might force Scotland out of the EU and then there might have to be another indyref is rubbish. How many in the SNP leadership have adopted the position that if Scotland should be "independent", then it should be "independent" of Brussels as well as "independent" of London, and therefore Brexit is the way to go? You'd have thought at least a few of them would take that line and claim it as theirs to make a mark, even if one can understand that both Brexit and Bremain push the British brand and restrict the overall scope for getting their kilts out. "Scotland in Europe" has long been a sort of over-compensation for Scot nats being thought of as the little Scotlanders that they actually are. It's like having a car sticker saying "Ecosse". "We're not inward-looking! Oh no! Absolutely not! We're nothing of the kind!"

    Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, fear is being spread that Brexit might mean a return of border checks. In Kent, the bogeyman is a move of the jungle from Calais to Folkestone.

    Latest news: the price of Leave has risen some more at the Betfair exchange. The Bogo effect!
  • Options
    Meanwhile, in Germany:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35625595

    Nothing speaks of social harmony like people cheering as a building burns.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    Seeing comments around like from James Forsyth to the effect of Cameron and Osborne not factoring Boris going for Leave into their calculations until recently and so on. I really struggle to believe that. They may have thought he would go for Remain in the end, but political wonks have speculated for a bloody year at least that Boris might consider going for Leave purely for leadership contender reasons, so I'm sure they considered the possibility and factored it into their calculations.

    Doesn't mean they will not regret he is going that way, or have any bearing on whether they can defeat the Leavers or not, but it looks like transparent attempts at narrative building. "The Cameroons were STUNNED at the very possibility of this maverick genius turning from them, it is a DEVASTATING blow"
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

    Second choices of all voters:

    Rubio 18
    Cruz 17
    Trump 12
    Carson 12
    Kasich 9
    Bush 9
    D/K 15

    Bush second choices

    Rubio 19
    Kasich 16
    Cruz 12
    Trump 11
    Carson 9
    D/K 23

    Kasich second choices

    Rubio 24
    Bush 21
    Trump 16
    Cruz 10
    Carson 6
    D/K 12

    Carson second choices

    Cruz 24
    Trump 22
    Rubio 16
    Kasich 7
    Bush 6
    D/K 17

    So the difference is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    He was in favour of an illegals amnesty.

    As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.

    I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?

    I'm sick and tired of the media obsession with him. This is now going to turn into the "Battle of the Old Etonians' and all serious debate will be lost.

  • Options
    At last! Someone has remembered that there is a budget between now and the referendum.
    And how many between now and the next leadership election?
    In fact if the referendum is won it would not surprise me to see Gove as Chancellor and Osborne as Foreign Secretary. May at Justice and Hammond as Home Secretary, although foreign secs tend not to move sideways when they have reached that pinnacle.
  • Options
    Speedy said:

    A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

    Second choices of all voters:

    Rubio 18
    Cruz 17
    Trump 12
    Carson 12
    Kasich 9
    Bush 9
    D/K 15

    Bush second choices

    Rubio 19
    Kasich 16
    Cruz 12
    Trump 11
    Carson 9
    D/K 23

    Kasich second choices

    Rubio 24
    Bush 21
    Trump 16
    Cruz 10
    Carson 6
    D/K 12

    Carson second choices

    Cruz 24
    Trump 22
    Rubio 16
    Kasich 7
    Bush 6
    D/K 17

    So the differences is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.

    Nevertheless it is a feature of the last two months of Trump that he has been able to push from 30-35% to 40-45% as one might expect. He'll have another opportunity soon, but he's got to do it at least when Cruz drops out.

    If Cruz drops after super Tuesday, 60/40 Rubio/Trump would see Rubio home thereafter.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Chapess, if you don't mind.
    John_N said:

    It's rare that in all my years here someone spouts complete nonsense, congratulations.

    You've a downer on our biggest income generating industry, for what reason exactly

    No need to be sarcastic, old chap. Let's only congratulate each other when we mean it. What statement have I made that you think is "nonsense" (is it that there's no good reason to think the City supports continued EU membership? if so, please rebut), or is it my attitude you don't like?

    "For what reason, exactly", do you call financial activities an "industry"? Ever get the feeling you've been spun?
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I quite agree. I did a lengthy YouGov today on groceries.

    I see a political one maybe once a month.
    tlg86 said:

    Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI

    I find it concerning how many polls you partake in.
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI

    I find it concerning how many polls you partake in.
    The pollsters love me. I'm an underrepresented demographic in what was a key seat at the 2015 general election.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147

    In fact if the referendum is won it would not surprise me to see Gove as Chancellor and Osborne as Foreign Secretary.

    Gove would actually make a good European Commissioner although he'd presumably not make it through the confirmation process having campaigned to leave. It would be a nice way to indicate to Brussels that a Remain victory did not mean that the UK would cease to look after its interests.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Andrew Neil
    Now we don't have to wait for his Telegraph column. Boris to reveal all 17.00 Sky News. The world holds its breath ...
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Fenster said:

    It's refreshing to see top ranking politicians showing some principle and giving oxygen to proper debate. Cameron and this Tory government have been far more tolerant of dissenting voices than the previous Labour government.

    Could you imagine Gordon Brown's cabinet ministers publicly expressing an alternative argument? Even if one of them had privately desired to nuke Bavaria they would've fallen into line, such was their puny, petrified sycophancy.

    They have no alternative, with a clear fault-line running through the Tory party, the memories of the 90's, UKIP scaring them a bit, and no GE election in sight.
    Also Cameron is entering the lame duck period and everyone is focusing on the succession.

    So Cameron has limited authority at present, and can't afford to stifle dissent when he is in the minority of his party and the majority is very vocal, the memories of the 90's are too strong for any attempt.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Yet there were 'undecided' PBers who emphasised protection for the City would be their key issue but who are now backing REMAIN.

    ha
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147

    Speedy said:

    A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

    Second choices of all voters:

    Rubio 18
    Cruz 17
    Trump 12
    Carson 12
    Kasich 9
    Bush 9
    D/K 15

    Bush second choices

    Rubio 19
    Kasich 16
    Cruz 12
    Trump 11
    Carson 9
    D/K 23

    Kasich second choices

    Rubio 24
    Bush 21
    Trump 16
    Cruz 10
    Carson 6
    D/K 12

    Carson second choices

    Cruz 24
    Trump 22
    Rubio 16
    Kasich 7
    Bush 6
    D/K 17

    So the differences is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.

    Nevertheless it is a feature of the last two months of Trump that he has been able to push from 30-35% to 40-45% as one might expect. He'll have another opportunity soon, but he's got to do it at least when Cruz drops out.

    If Cruz drops after super Tuesday, 60/40 Rubio/Trump would see Rubio home thereafter.
    Trump will probably break that threshold on Tuesday in Nevada and it should be plain sailing after that.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    tlg86 said:

    Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI

    I find it concerning how many polls you partake in.
    The pollsters love me. I'm an underrepresented demographic in what was a key seat at the 2015 general election.
    Underrepresented, but not representative, methinks
  • Options
    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.

    I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.

    kle4 said:

    "Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

    My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

    I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,
    As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?
    What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.
    35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie points
    Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....
    First impressions - Boris for leave may help leave but the issues are greater than Boris. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remain
    I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.
    Great protection for the City as reported in the DT....
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12164954/EU-deal-How-David-Cameron-took-on-the-eurozone-and-won.html

  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited February 2016
    Fenster said:

    It's refreshing to see top ranking politicians showing some principle and giving oxygen to proper debate. Cameron and this Tory government have been far more tolerant of dissenting voices than the previous Labour government.

    Could you imagine Gordon Brown's cabinet ministers publicly expressing an alternative argument? Even if one of them had privately desired to nuke Bavaria they would've fallen into line, such was their puny, petrified sycophancy.

    Says more about you than Labour.
    James Purnell and Alistair Darling to name two were hardly sychophants to Brown.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Rather enjoyed this

    Raymond Doetjes
    Yes to a #BREXIT and this is evidence why! https://t.co/YtpYylsZ3N
  • Options
    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI

    I find it concerning how many polls you partake in.
    The pollsters love me. I'm an underrepresented demographic in what was a key seat at the 2015 general election.
    Underrepresented, but not representative, methinks
    I speak for England, The U.K. and the Tory Party.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016

    Speedy said:

    A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

    Second choices of all voters:

    Rubio 18
    Cruz 17
    Trump 12
    Carson 12
    Kasich 9
    Bush 9
    D/K 15

    Bush second choices

    Rubio 19
    Kasich 16
    Cruz 12
    Trump 11
    Carson 9
    D/K 23

    Kasich second choices

    Rubio 24
    Bush 21
    Trump 16
    Cruz 10
    Carson 6
    D/K 12

    Carson second choices

    Cruz 24
    Trump 22
    Rubio 16
    Kasich 7
    Bush 6
    D/K 17

    So the differences is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.

    Nevertheless it is a feature of the last two months of Trump that he has been able to push from 30-35% to 40-45% as one might expect. He'll have another opportunity soon, but he's got to do it at least when Cruz drops out.

    If Cruz drops after super Tuesday, 60/40 Rubio/Trump would see Rubio home thereafter.
    Cruz voters second choices

    Rubio 33
    Trump 26
    Carson 17
    Bush 7
    Kasich 3
    D/K 9

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

    Not enough for Rubio to close the gap in the very unlikely event that Cruz drops out.

    If Trump is at 35 and gains 25% of the other candidates 65 then he gets 51% of the vote.
  • Options
    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited February 2016

    As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.

    I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?

    Boris Johnson is a Yank too, the genuine item - a US-passport-carrying burgermunching Merkin.

    Whenever he goes to the US, he must enter on his US passport. He'd be breaking US law if he entered on his "Briddish" one.

  • Options
    perdix said:
    Er no. I am afraid you have been taken in by a paper that would support the EU even if it was massacring the first born.

    If you look at the briefing from Open Europe that I posted earlier - remembering that the Director of Open Europe was one of Cameron's negotiating team - then you will see there is no protection at all. Not one iota.

    We will be bound by the Single rulebook for the whole EU for financial matters. If any proposed legislation comes forward under that rulebook that would affect the city then we can point this out and say we want to discuss it. There will then be time limited discussions at the end of which the rest of the EU can still impose the new legislation even if we still object.

    That is what is written in the agreement that Cameron negotiated.

    I don't care what spin the FT puts on it. That is no protection at all.
  • Options
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

    Second choices of all voters:

    Rubio 18
    Cruz 17
    Trump 12
    Carson 12
    Kasich 9
    Bush 9
    D/K 15

    Bush second choices

    Rubio 19
    Kasich 16
    Cruz 12
    Trump 11
    Carson 9
    D/K 23

    Kasich second choices

    Rubio 24
    Bush 21
    Trump 16
    Cruz 10
    Carson 6
    D/K 12

    Carson second choices

    Cruz 24
    Trump 22
    Rubio 16
    Kasich 7
    Bush 6
    D/K 17

    So the differences is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.

    Nevertheless it is a feature of the last two months of Trump that he has been able to push from 30-35% to 40-45% as one might expect. He'll have another opportunity soon, but he's got to do it at least when Cruz drops out.

    If Cruz drops after super Tuesday, 60/40 Rubio/Trump would see Rubio home thereafter.
    Cruz voters second choices

    Rubio 33
    Trump 26
    Carson 17
    Bush 7
    Kasich 3
    D/K 9

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

    Not enough for Rubio to close the gap in the very unlikely event that Cruz drops out.
    Why would Cruz drop out? He could be kingmaker in a brokered convention and needs as many delegates as possible for that. Also, being seen as runner up could help him next time. Hes also certain to win states on Super Tuesday. Will Rubio??
  • Options
    John_N said:

    As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.

    I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?

    Boris Johnson is a Yank too, the genuine item - a US-passport-carrying burgermunching Merkin.

    Whenever he goes to the US, he must enter on his US passport. He'd be breaking US law if he entered on his "Briddish" one.

    That seems like a ridiculous reason to reject someone.
  • Options

    perdix said:
    Er no. I am afraid you have been taken in by a paper that would support the EU even if it was massacring the first born.
    An interesting view of the Telegraph.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI

    I find it concerning how many polls you partake in.
    The pollsters love me. I'm an underrepresented demographic in what was a key seat at the 2015 general election.
    Underrepresented, but not representative, methinks
    I speak for England, The U.K. and the Tory Party.
    No you don't. You speak for a lawyer in Sheffield.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090
    Speedy said:

    malcolmg said:

    PeterC said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    Fenster said:

    Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.

    If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.

    If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.

    Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?

    Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.

    It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.
    None of us can see the future, but will you ever regret voting for the British people to be governed by their elected representatives, according to their own laws, trading with the whole world?
    I might well regret if Scotland then left, yes. Would they leave? Hard to say. I reckon they would bloviate a lot, but then possibly bottle it. Can't be sure tho. It's a huge unknown.

    My other big worry is the City. On which so much of our prosperity depends.

    My heart says LEAVE, my head says STAY FOR NOW, my liver says CAN WE HAVE SOME MORE OF THAT NICE RIOJA
    Perhaps you should just take some Rioja rather than a blood pack to Africa with you? It'd have about the same effect...
    Oil at $110 wasn't enough to pursuade them. Oil at $30 certainly won't be.
    bollox
    It's true though, scotland can certainly not afford to be independent now, if it did it would need a bailout of death like the eurozone countries took.
    If the SNP doesn't like Osborne, they will have to deal with the IMF.
    Oil i snot the be all and end all for Scotland. We would not have to pay for the obscene borrowing of UK etc and could easily borrow a la UK and change the business model. Not paying for lots of the UK vanity would make a huge dent in any deficit. Lots and lots of small countries without any oil do very well, no reason why Scotland could not do the same.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

    Second choices of all voters:

    Rubio 18
    Cruz 17
    Trump 12
    Carson 12
    Kasich 9
    Bush 9
    D/K 15

    Bush second choices

    Rubio 19
    Kasich 16
    Cruz 12
    Trump 11
    Carson 9
    D/K 23

    Kasich second choices

    Rubio 24
    Bush 21
    Trump 16
    Cruz 10
    Carson 6
    D/K 12

    Carson second choices

    Cruz 24
    Trump 22
    Rubio 16
    Kasich 7
    Bush 6
    D/K 17

    So the differences is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.

    Nevertheless it is a feature of the last two months of Trump that he has been able to push from 30-35% to 40-45% as one might expect. He'll have another opportunity soon, but he's got to do it at least when Cruz drops out.

    If Cruz drops after super Tuesday, 60/40 Rubio/Trump would see Rubio home thereafter.
    Cruz voters second choices

    Rubio 33
    Trump 26
    Carson 17
    Bush 7
    Kasich 3
    D/K 9

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

    Not enough for Rubio to close the gap in the very unlikely event that Cruz drops out.
    Why would Cruz drop out? He could be kingmaker in a brokered convention and needs as many delegates as possible for that. Also, being seen as runner up could help him next time. Hes also certain to win states on Super Tuesday. Will Rubio??
    Cruz won't drop out, he has the pastors vote and money from the mega-churches and he's the only one who won anything apart from Trump.

    The Cruz battle plan is very similar to Rubio's:

    1. Get rid of Rubio/Cruz.
    2. Get rid of Carson/Kasich.
    3. Win Texas/Florida.
    4. Automatically beat Trump when down to one on one.

    Their priority is getting each other out of the way before everything else, Trump is no.4 on their list.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,230

    If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.

    I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.

    kle4 said:

    "Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

    My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

    I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,
    As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?
    What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.
    35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie points
    Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....
    First impressions - Boris for leave may help leave but the issues are greater than Boris. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remain
    I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.
    It's not just the lack of protection. It's that the current deal is, arguably, worse than the status quo. It takes special skills to end up in a worse position after negotiations designed to improve Britain's position.

    Who the fuck did Cameron have advising him? Varoufakis?

  • Options

    John_N said:

    As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.

    I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?

    Boris Johnson is a Yank too, the genuine item - a US-passport-carrying burgermunching Merkin.

    Whenever he goes to the US, he must enter on his US passport. He'd be breaking US law if he entered on his "Briddish" one.

    That seems like a ridiculous reason to reject someone.
    Plus didn't he renounce his US citizenship a couple of years ago?
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    It's refreshing to see top ranking politicians showing some principle and giving oxygen to proper debate. Cameron and this Tory government have been far more tolerant of dissenting voices than the previous Labour government.

    Could you imagine Gordon Brown's cabinet ministers publicly expressing an alternative argument? Even if one of them had privately desired to nuke Bavaria they would've fallen into line, such was their puny, petrified sycophancy.

    Says more about you than Labour.
    James Purnell and Alistair Darling to name two were hardly sychophants to Brown.
    Fair point. Tolerated dissension ended well for Purnell.

    Where's he now? Head of Television at BBC3?

    Anyway, you at least have a broader spectrum of political philosophies under Corbyn's leadership, all the way from socialism on the hard left to communism on the extreme left.

    Enjoy your 24% at the GE, whilst the Tories do what the feck they like.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :smiley:

    Dan Hannan
    Welcome, @BorisJohnson. Or, as you might put it, "χρὴ ξεῖνον παρεόντα φιλεῖν, ἐθέλοντα δὲ πέμπειν." https://t.co/c1p0r1lfuz
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142
    edited February 2016
    Charles said:


    I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.

    Yet there were 'undecided' PBers who emphasised protection for the City would be their key issue but who are now backing REMAIN.
    you saw my response on previous thread?
    I did and thanks for the reply. I am not including you within my previous comment.

    As to Cameron's negotiating ability its clear that my doubts were valid from the response of numerous PBers of all beliefs to the outcome Cameron has achieved.
  • Options

    perdix said:
    Er no. I am afraid you have been taken in by a paper that would support the EU even if it was massacring the first born.
    An interesting view of the Telegraph.
    LOL. I thought is was the FT. The point still remains as far as protection of the City goes though. There is none. Indeed as Miss Cyclefree has pointed out it is actually worse than if we had had no deal at all.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090
    John_N said:

    The idea that England might force Scotland out of the EU and then there might have to be another indyref is rubbish. How many in the SNP leadership have adopted the position that if Scotland should be "independent", then it should be "independent" of Brussels as well as "independent" of London, and therefore Brexit is the way to go? You'd have thought at least a few of them would take that line and claim it as theirs to make a mark, even if one can understand that both Brexit and Bremain push the British brand and restrict the overall scope for getting their kilts out. "Scotland in Europe" has long been a sort of over-compensation for Scot nats being thought of as the little Scotlanders that they actually are. It's like having a car sticker saying "Ecosse". "We're not inward-looking! Oh no! Absolutely not! We're nothing of the kind!"

    Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, fear is being spread that Brexit might mean a return of border checks. In Kent, the bogeyman is a move of the jungle from Calais to Folkestone.

    Latest news: the price of Leave has risen some more at the Betfair exchange. The Bogo effect!

    Your village is looking for their Little Englander idiot. As if we did not have enough raving loons on here , another halfwit who could not point to Scotland on a map turnsup
  • Options
    malcolmg said:



    Oil is not the be all and end all for Scotland. We would not have to pay for the obscene borrowing of UK etc and could easily borrow a la UK and change the business model. Not paying for lots of the UK vanity would make a huge dent in any deficit. Lots and lots of small countries without any oil do very well, no reason why Scotland could not do the same.

    This is spot on. I don't necessarily think it would be easy and I don't think it would be possible for many years to reconcile the socialist wishes of the SNP with the realities of an independent Scotland but in the end they would certainly make good. Oil revenue, however slight, could only help.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    malcolmg said:

    John_N said:

    The idea that England might force Scotland out of the EU and then there might have to be another indyref is rubbish. How many in the SNP leadership have adopted the position that if Scotland should be "independent", then it should be "independent" of Brussels as well as "independent" of London, and therefore Brexit is the way to go? You'd have thought at least a few of them would take that line and claim it as theirs to make a mark, even if one can understand that both Brexit and Bremain push the British brand and restrict the overall scope for getting their kilts out. "Scotland in Europe" has long been a sort of over-compensation for Scot nats being thought of as the little Scotlanders that they actually are. It's like having a car sticker saying "Ecosse". "We're not inward-looking! Oh no! Absolutely not! We're nothing of the kind!"

    Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, fear is being spread that Brexit might mean a return of border checks. In Kent, the bogeyman is a move of the jungle from Calais to Folkestone.

    Latest news: the price of Leave has risen some more at the Betfair exchange. The Bogo effect!

    Your village is looking for their Little Englander idiot. As if we did not have enough raving loons on here , another halfwit who could not point to Scotland on a map turnsup
    malc

    got your note, and yes it's exactly the same down here.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090

    malcolmg said:



    Oil is not the be all and end all for Scotland. We would not have to pay for the obscene borrowing of UK etc and could easily borrow a la UK and change the business model. Not paying for lots of the UK vanity would make a huge dent in any deficit. Lots and lots of small countries without any oil do very well, no reason why Scotland could not do the same.

    This is spot on. I don't necessarily think it would be easy and I don't think it would be possible for many years to reconcile the socialist wishes of the SNP with the realities of an independent Scotland but in the end they would certainly make good. Oil revenue, however slight, could only help.
    Agree , it would be far from plain sailing but is very feasible and not as some of the lesser lights on here imagine.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    More charity excess harming themselves

    'Daffodil Day boycotted over high Cancer Society salaries'. Sad but not unexpected. https://t.co/kCZdOI7dqs
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If he chooses leave. Boris will have to work hard not to look like the leader of the opposition. He will be asked about every issue, especially Osborne's upcoming budget.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090

    malcolmg said:

    John_N said:

    The idea that England might force Scotland out of the EU and then there might have to be another indyref is rubbish. How many in the SNP leadership have adopted the position that if Scotland should be "independent", then it should be "independent" of Brussels as well as "independent" of London, and therefore Brexit is the way to go? You'd have thought at least a few of them would take that line and claim it as theirs to make a mark, even if one can understand that both Brexit and Bremain push the British brand and restrict the overall scope for getting their kilts out. "Scotland in Europe" has long been a sort of over-compensation for Scot nats being thought of as the little Scotlanders that they actually are. It's like having a car sticker saying "Ecosse". "We're not inward-looking! Oh no! Absolutely not! We're nothing of the kind!"

    Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, fear is being spread that Brexit might mean a return of border checks. In Kent, the bogeyman is a move of the jungle from Calais to Folkestone.

    Latest news: the price of Leave has risen some more at the Betfair exchange. The Bogo effect!

    Your village is looking for their Little Englander idiot. As if we did not have enough raving loons on here , another halfwit who could not point to Scotland on a map turnsup
    malc

    got your note, and yes it's exactly the same down here.
    Hi Alan, some crazy decision making , especially in our area that is doing very very well.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Owen Jones
    I also have a Bronze Swimming Certificate, does that count for nothing?
  • Options
    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited February 2016

    John_N said:

    As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.

    I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?

    Boris Johnson is a Yank too, the genuine item - a US-passport-carrying burgermunching Merkin.

    Whenever he goes to the US, he must enter on his US passport. He'd be breaking US law if he entered on his "Briddish" one.

    That seems like a ridiculous reason to reject someone.
    How can it be good for national security for a minister in the government of one country to negotiate with a foreign country and at the same time be a citizen of that foreign country?

    Plus didn't he renounce his US citizenship a couple of years ago?

    I'm not sure. The Torygraph said last year that he was still a US citizen at that time, but that he "is to renounce US citizenship". The BBC said today that he held US citizenship until 2006.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

    Second choices of all voters:

    Rubio 18
    Cruz 17
    Trump 12
    Carson 12
    Kasich 9
    Bush 9
    D/K 15

    Bush second choices

    Rubio 19
    Kasich 16
    Cruz 12
    Trump 11
    Carson 9
    D/K 23

    Kasich second choices

    Rubio 24
    Bush 21
    Trump 16
    Cruz 10
    Carson 6
    D/K 12

    Carson second choices

    Cruz 24
    Trump 22
    Rubio 16
    Kasich 7
    Bush 6
    D/K 17

    So the differences is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.

    Nevertheless it is a feature of the last two months of Trump that he has been able to push from 30-35% to 40-45% as one might expect. He'll have another opportunity soon, but he's got to do it at least when Cruz drops out.

    If Cruz drops after super Tuesday, 60/40 Rubio/Trump would see Rubio home thereafter.
    Cruz voters second choices

    Rubio 33
    Trump 26
    Carson 17
    Bush 7
    Kasich 3
    D/K 9

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

    Not enough for Rubio to close the gap in the very unlikely event that Cruz drops out.
    Why would Cruz drop out? He could be kingmaker in a brokered convention and needs as many delegates as possible for that. Also, being seen as runner up could help him next time. Hes also certain to win states on Super Tuesday. Will Rubio??
    Cruz won't drop out, he has the pastors vote and money from the mega-churches and he's the only one who won anything apart from Trump.

    The Cruz battle plan is very similar to Rubio's:

    1. Get rid of Rubio/Cruz.
    2. Get rid of Carson/Kasich.
    3. Win Texas/Florida.
    4. Automatically beat Trump when down to one on one.

    Their priority is getting each other out of the way before everything else, Trump is no.4 on their list.
    Meanwhile Trump can just sit back and wish every success to both Rubio and Cruz in executing point one of their battle plans.
  • Options
    Oh god the round Robin letters have started...sky reporting they have a leak from big business leaders....
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Cyclefree said:

    If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.

    I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.

    kle4 said:

    "Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

    My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

    ,
    As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?
    What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.
    35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie points
    Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....
    . I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remain
    I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.
    It's not just the lack of protection. It's that the current deal is, arguably, worse than the status quo. It takes special skills to end up in a worse position after negotiations designed to improve Britain's position.

    Who the fuck did Cameron have advising him? Varoufakis?

    Both Cameron and Varoufakis share the same sentimental attachment to the EU that allows the EU to dictate terms to them.

    They even share the same delusion:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/10/yanis-varoufakis-launches-pan-european-leftwing-movement-diem25

    The idea that you can reform the EU by being even more accommodating to it.
    "Greece’s former finance minister says umbrella group will ‘shake Europe – gently, compassionately, but firmly’ "
  • Options
    To those members of the media who read this blog - when referring to the PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE STOP CALLING HIM JUST BY HIS SURNAME. IT IS EITHER THE PRIME MINISTER, OR DAVID CAMERON. THIS IS THE "GREAT OFFICE OF STATE" AND SHOULD BE RESPECTED AS SUCH, WHICH INCLUDES THE PERSON WHO HOLDS THE OFFICE.

    SHOW SOME BLOODY MANNERS.
  • Options
    Boris live on Sky now
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    To those members of the media who read this blog - when referring to the PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE STOP CALLING HIM JUST BY HIS SURNAME. IT IS EITHER THE PRIME MINISTER, OR DAVID CAMERON. THIS IS THE "GREAT OFFICE OF STATE" AND SHOULD BE RESPECTED AS SUCH, WHICH INCLUDES THE PERSON WHO HOLDS THE OFFICE.

    SHOW SOME BLOODY MANNERS.

    from memory the same chap asked us to call him "Dave"

    he set his own yardstick.
  • Options

    perdix said:
    Er no. I am afraid you have been taken in by a paper that would support the EU even if it was massacring the first born.
    An interesting view of the Telegraph.
    LOL. I thought is was the FT. The point still remains as far as protection of the City goes though. There is none. Indeed as Miss Cyclefree has pointed out it is actually worse than if we had had no deal at all.
    Its a bizarre article. Says outright that non discrimination was status quo, that the UK got more and more roped into banking union with every iteration, and that Eurozone can still railroad new financial laws over City... yet calls this a victory for Cameron.
  • Options
    Boris comes out
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Its a bizarre article.

    It's complete cr*p
  • Options

    To those members of the media who read this blog - when referring to the PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE STOP CALLING HIM JUST BY HIS SURNAME. IT IS EITHER THE PRIME MINISTER, OR DAVID CAMERON. THIS IS THE "GREAT OFFICE OF STATE" AND SHOULD BE RESPECTED AS SUCH, WHICH INCLUDES THE PERSON WHO HOLDS THE OFFICE.

    SHOW SOME BLOODY MANNERS.

    He's a politician, not royalty.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    If we don't get Dave v Boris I'll be very annoyed.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Fenster said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    It's refreshing to see top ranking politicians showing some principle and giving oxygen to proper debate. Cameron and this Tory government have been far more tolerant of dissenting voices than the previous Labour government.

    Could you imagine Gordon Brown's cabinet ministers publicly expressing an alternative argument? Even if one of them had privately desired to nuke Bavaria they would've fallen into line, such was their puny, petrified sycophancy.

    Says more about you than Labour.
    James Purnell and Alistair Darling to name two were hardly sychophants to Brown.
    Fair point. Tolerated dissension ended well for Purnell.

    Where's he now? Head of Television at BBC3?

    Anyway, you at least have a broader spectrum of political philosophies under Corbyn's leadership, all the way from socialism on the hard left to communism on the extreme left.

    Enjoy your 24% at the GE, whilst the Tories do what the feck they like.
    James Purnell is the Director of Strategy and Digital at the BBC.
    Hardly my 24% I did not vote for Corbyn.
    Why do you give one you would never vote anything but Conservative anyways .
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    To those members of the media who read this blog - when referring to the PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE STOP CALLING HIM JUST BY HIS SURNAME. IT IS EITHER THE PRIME MINISTER, OR DAVID CAMERON. THIS IS THE "GREAT OFFICE OF STATE" AND SHOULD BE RESPECTED AS SUCH, WHICH INCLUDES THE PERSON WHO HOLDS THE OFFICE.

    SHOW SOME BLOODY MANNERS.

    He's a politician, not royalty.
    Quite so. Cameron works for us. Not the other way round.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    He's still saying that he wants us to stay in a reformed EU. Not sure I like that attitude.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,146
    The only chance in our lifetime....
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090
  • Options
    Boris lapping up the attention...
  • Options
    He's brushed his hair - this obviously means he's serious...
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Better off Out? Better off Free.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090
    tlg86 said:

    He's still saying that he wants us to stay in a reformed EU. Not sure I like that attitude.

    He is holding out an olive branch to the EU
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    He's still saying that he wants us to stay in a reformed EU. Not sure I like that attitude.

    He is pro cake & pro eating it...I guess he is trying to argue to people that a no doesn't have to mean total isolation which is what a lot of people worry about.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    He's still saying that he wants us to stay in a reformed EU. Not sure I like that attitude.

    He is holding out an olive branch to the EU
    They've had their chance. He said the PM must stay on after the referendum whatever happens, but Boris's position logically says that he doesn't think the PM has done a very good job.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016
    tlg86 said:

    He's still saying that he wants us to stay in a reformed EU. Not sure I like that attitude.

    He is the backstop to ensure the succession. If Dave and George have miscalculated and get a good rogering from the public in June, Boris and Gove pick up the baton. Cameroons on both sides, the legacy is secure. If they got it right, Boris and Gove back in the cabinet anyway to pacify the Leavers.
  • Options

    To those members of the media who read this blog - when referring to the PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE STOP CALLING HIM JUST BY HIS SURNAME. IT IS EITHER THE PRIME MINISTER, OR DAVID CAMERON. THIS IS THE "GREAT OFFICE OF STATE" AND SHOULD BE RESPECTED AS SUCH, WHICH INCLUDES THE PERSON WHO HOLDS THE OFFICE.

    SHOW SOME BLOODY MANNERS.

    No. :-)
This discussion has been closed.