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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Echoes of History: Hilary Benn and Michael Foot

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,260

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Piddling little crack!! Whats the world coming to? Put yer foot down and get over it quicker!

    I must say I thought there was a second bridge open by now but its a year away. The article suggests its going to replace the original; I know its 50 years old but it ought to last longer than that surely.
    Labour and Tory governments cut out the maintenance for many many years and voila.
    The major anchor points have been inspected and are sound. The bridge does have a life. But that did not stop the billions being spent on the new bridge. If the current one is to be pulled down, is it wise to spend money keep it open for another 30 years?
    They are not planning to bring it down when the new one opens. It is still to be used for various purposes, ie public transport , cyclists and pedestrians.
    That's the plan AIUI. But the maintenance costs of the bridge are enormous, and problems like this will just add to the inspection regime and associated costs.

    It wouldn't surprise me if it was taken down within ten years of the new bridge opening next year. As I mentioned earlier, God knows how they'd dismantle it. I'm not sure demolishing a suspension bridge that size has ever been done before.
    Would be very interesting for sure.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    kle4 said:

    Just heard about those Tyson Fury comments. I hope he doesn't win SPOTY. Comparing homosexuality to paedophilia? Believing women's main function is to be in 'in the kitchen and on her back?' I don't envy any of the women unfortunate enough, to be in his life....

    What a character. I think I'll be rooting for good old boring Dr Steelhammer if he gets a rematch.
    I had to google 'Dr Steelhammer' to know who you were talking about. I have to say, I'm not a big fan of boxing and have only heard of Wladimir Klitschko because he's married to Hayden Panettiere.
    I'm not a big boxing fan either, but he and his brother certainly have good ring names, thanks to their PhDs, which makes them worthy of note regardless. It's no wonder Vitali won the Kiev mayoral elections given he went by Dr Ironfist when he boxed, I'd vote for him.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,032
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Piddling little crack!! Whats the world coming to? Put yer foot down and get over it quicker!

    I must say I thought there was a second bridge open by now but its a year away. The article suggests its going to replace the original; I know its 50 years old but it ought to last longer than that surely.
    Labour and Tory governments cut out the maintenance for many many years and voila.
    The major anchor points have been inspected and are sound. The bridge does have a life. But that did not stop the billions being spent on the new bridge. If the current one is to be pulled down, is it wise to spend money keep it open for another 30 years?
    They are not planning to bring it down when the new one opens. It is still to be used for various purposes, ie public transport , cyclists and pedestrians.
    That's the plan AIUI. But the maintenance costs of the bridge are enormous, and problems like this will just add to the inspection regime and associated costs.

    It wouldn't surprise me if it was taken down within ten years of the new bridge opening next year. As I mentioned earlier, God knows how they'd dismantle it. I'm not sure demolishing a suspension bridge that size has ever been done before.
    Would be very interesting for sure.
    Thought this may be of interest to you both:
    http://jalopnik.com/the-ten-best-bridge-demolition-gifs-456340826
    :D
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267

    "the willingness of Tory leaders to use national military endeavours to their own advantage"

    Or, looking down the other end of the telescope, the unwillingness of Labour's leaders to support national military endeavours even though it is to their own disadvantage. They can't bring themselves to support our armed forces even when they are being used to fight ISIL, an entity that would otherwise embody everything the Left despises. If only they weren't Muslims, eh? In their great book of excuses, is there anything that the Corbynistas will call out homophobic misogynistic religious-intolerant inhuman psychopath scum for, if they also happen to be Muslims?

    It's hard to avoid the conclusion sometimes that the only reason the Left attacked homophobia, misogyny, sexism, racism etc was because it was a good proxy way of attacking the Right. If their own supporters were guilty of these things it didn't matter because they were supporters and so on the "right" side.

    It's the difference between being anti-sexist as a badge of identity or doing it from first principles i.e. because you believe in equal treatment and believe that it should apply to all. That's why even someone as moderate and apparently sensible as the new Labour MP for Oldham has no apparent problem with speaking to a gender-segregated meeting. The need for votes outweighs the belief in male/female equal treatment.

    The Left will become truly sensible again when it abandons its Top Trumps Identity Competition approach to politics.
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    kle4 said:

    Once you get past the swearing, there's a lot of good advice in there that I expect is being completely ignored.
    Which he must have known and therefore presumably doesn't care all that much about people actually paying attention to the points.

    Yeah that's right - I just did it to you. I called you a f---king nutjob - how does it feel? Not great, right? So you'll probably not read any more, it won't much matter what else I say. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT YOU'RE DOING TO UKIP VOTERS BY CALLING THEM RACISTS YOU KNOB-SCRATCH

    I get the point, and a little vulgarity can be appropriate to make the point more effectively. But that much it just looks like the ramblings of someone going through a breakdown of some kind and loses most of its efficacy. Since he references what happens when people get attacked so vulgarily, and made that tone the centrepiece of the piece, I can only assume it was written for his own benefit, not caring how it was received or its points taken in.
    Put in terms that Corbynites might understand, Labour party members need to stop exclusively having conversations with other people for whom the decision is whether Starbucks or Nespresso are the more boycott-worthy and who would regard Gold Blend as slumming it.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2015
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Just heard about those Tyson Fury comments. I hope he doesn't win SPOTY. Comparing homosexuality to paedophilia? Believing women's main function is to be in 'in the kitchen and on her back?' I don't envy any of the women unfortunate enough, to be in his life....

    What a character. I think I'll be rooting for good old boring Dr Steelhammer if he gets a rematch.
    I had to google 'Dr Steelhammer' to know who you were talking about. I have to say, I'm not a big fan of boxing and have only heard of Wladimir Klitschko because he's married to Hayden Panettiere.
    I'm not a big boxing fan either, but he and his brother certainly have good ring names, thanks to their PhDs, which makes them worthy of note regardless. It's no wonder Vitali won the Kiev mayoral elections given he went by Dr Ironfist when he boxed, I'd vote for him.
    Sorry to be vulgar, but when Lennox Lewis was going to fight one of the 7ft tall Klitschko brothers the Sunday Sport headline was

    "Lewis: I'm going to lick big Klit!"

    Did make me roar with laughter at the time
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    I think you've got his mood all wrong. He appears to have quit the Labour party this week. This is despairing, not ecstatic.

    I seem to be in a minority of one in finding it informative and full of good sense. Oh well.

    I agree with you on both counts. However, it's an odd tone to use when he's advocating (inter alia) an approach based on a cool assessment of data.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    If you're going to release a photoshop'd pic to the press, at least make it convincing....

    http://gadgets.ndtv.com/internet/news/pibs-photoshop-of-pm-modi-visiting-flood-hit-chennai-stokes-controversy-773586
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,151
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Just heard about those Tyson Fury comments. I hope he doesn't win SPOTY. Comparing homosexuality to paedophilia? Believing women's main function is to be in 'in the kitchen and on her back?' I don't envy any of the women unfortunate enough, to be in his life....

    What a character. I think I'll be rooting for good old boring Dr Steelhammer if he gets a rematch.
    I had to google 'Dr Steelhammer' to know who you were talking about. I have to say, I'm not a big fan of boxing and have only heard of Wladimir Klitschko because he's married to Hayden Panettiere.
    I'm not a big boxing fan either, but he and his brother certainly have good ring names, thanks to their PhDs, which makes them worthy of note regardless. It's no wonder Vitali won the Kiev mayoral elections given he went by Dr Ironfist when he boxed, I'd vote for him.
    Sorry to be vulgar, but when Lennox Lewis was going to fight one of the 7ft tall Klitschko brothers the Sunday Sport headline was

    "Lewis: I'm going to lick big Klit!"

    Did make me roar with laughter at the time
    Imagine what the lefties would have thought of a boxer actually saying that!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,032
    Pong said:

    If you're going to release a photoshop'd pic to the press, at least make it convincing....

    http://gadgets.ndtv.com/internet/news/pibs-photoshop-of-pm-modi-visiting-flood-hit-chennai-stokes-controversy-773586

    I kinda feel sorry for them, as they weren't exactly lying about him being there, just that the original photo wasn't really great at showing it.
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    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Just heard about those Tyson Fury comments. I hope he doesn't win SPOTY. Comparing homosexuality to paedophilia? Believing women's main function is to be in 'in the kitchen and on her back?' I don't envy any of the women unfortunate enough, to be in his life....

    What a character. I think I'll be rooting for good old boring Dr Steelhammer if he gets a rematch.
    I had to google 'Dr Steelhammer' to know who you were talking about. I have to say, I'm not a big fan of boxing and have only heard of Wladimir Klitschko because he's married to Hayden Panettiere.
    I'm not a big boxing fan either, but he and his brother certainly have good ring names, thanks to their PhDs, which makes them worthy of note regardless. It's no wonder Vitali won the Kiev mayoral elections given he went by Dr Ironfist when he boxed, I'd vote for him.
    Sorry to be vulgar, but when Lennox Lewis was going to fight one of the 7ft tall Klitschko brothers the Sunday Sport headline was

    "Lewis: I'm going to lick big Klit!"

    Did make me roar with laughter at the time
    Imagine what the lefties would have thought of a boxer actually saying that!
    Somehow, I don't think it's only lefties who would see his views on women and gay people as abhorrent.
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    GeoffM said:

    runnymede said:

    What an embarrassing article

    Very grateful that you read it and can provide us with feedback.
    I gave Brind a few fair goes at the beginning but I just can't be arsed looking any more.
    It's nice that you now write that or similar after every single one of his pieces, almost a PB tradition.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,197
    Cyclefree said:

    It's hard to avoid the conclusion sometimes that the only reason the Left attacked homophobia, misogyny, sexism, racism etc was because it was a good proxy way of attacking the Right. If their own supporters were guilty of these things it didn't matter because they were supporters and so on the "right" side.

    bang on
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'It's hard to avoid the conclusion sometimes that the only reason the Left attacked homophobia, misogyny, sexism, racism etc was because it was a good proxy way of attacking the Right'

    All convenient ways of demonising opponents and wielding power over others. These people would have been shouting 'witch witch' or 'heretic' in earlier centuries.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,323

    On topic, the problem for Labour is that Corbyn and McDonnell do have form in sympathising with and consorting with terrorists and bloody revolutionaries, and there are plenty of journalists who'll run stories detailing them. Foot, for all that he was of Labour's soft left, nonetheless was clear about where a state's rights and duties to protect its citizens lay. The comparison with (Hilary) Benn is well-made.

    However, it's also worth remembering that Foot won in 1980 in no small part because Callaghan pre-empted the change to the leadership election rules. Corbyn, by contrast, was elected after - and perhaps because of - the rule change (yes, in the end the party membership backed him too but I wonder if that would have been the case had not the three-quidders started the ball rolling). Even if Corbyn is forced out, Benn is still stuck with having to negotiate the same electorate.

    He will only put himself forward if MPs effectively elect him unopposed as Michael Howard was i.e. without consulting the membership
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited December 2015
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    If you're going to release a photoshop'd pic to the press, at least make it convincing....

    http://gadgets.ndtv.com/internet/news/pibs-photoshop-of-pm-modi-visiting-flood-hit-chennai-stokes-controversy-773586

    I kinda feel sorry for them, as they weren't exactly lying about him being there, just that the original photo wasn't really great at showing it.
    That's what makes it so absurd - It didn't need any photoshopping, yet someone still thought it was a good idea.

    Bonkers.
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    If only Mr Brind did not carry so much resentment and baggage from his view of history. I agree with Mr Brind that Cameron made a partisan remark. It was wrong and diminished Cameron.

    But we also have from Mr Brind a set of attacks on Thatcher for winning an election on the back of her decision and hers alone, to win back the Falklands. That was a courageous decision in the face of some around her that wanted to back off and talk to the invaders.

    If we ever need to wonder why Kinnock never became PM "Mr Neil Kinnock re-opened the row over the Falklands war last night when he told a Television South audience that it was a pity soldiers had to die to prove that Mrs Thatcher had guts."
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,182
    RobD said:



    -snip-

    Thought this may be of interest to you both:
    http://jalopnik.com/the-ten-best-bridge-demolition-gifs-456340826
    :D

    May I also thank you for that?

    I remember reading how modern engineers (sorry JJ) were storing up problems for their successors to solve with prestressing in massive structures, e.g. skyscrapers. Huge amounts of strain energy stored in those, I gathered.

    It will be interesting to see how they demolish FB2 (FB1, the railway one, seems to be doing OK now it is actually being maintained). I can't remember the navigational details - it ain't Pompey - but if it is shallow enough, it is possible that the MoD might have a few issues with just dumping the steelwork in the Forth given the need for the new carriers to be docked at Rosyth.

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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,976
    DB

    "Cameron’s purpose, I believe, was to damage those Labour MPs who joined him in the division lobby on Wednesday night, especially Hilary Benn".


    I'm prepared to believe in almost any amount of duplicitous behaviour from an ex agency account exec-it's their speciality-but to believe that Cameron came up with a plan to damage Hillary Benn because he might make a speech which was so impressive he could become a future Labour leader.....Even Machiavelli wasn't that good
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Alistair said:

    I've sampled some of the mass-shootings from the Guardian data set
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/oct/02/mass-shootings-america-gun-violence

    And they all seem to match up with news reports of mass shootings in the local press at those locations and dates. Sometimes they are off by 1 or two victims - Guardian listed one as 2 dead 4 injured when the local news report had 1 dead and 5 injured. But I suppose one of the injured could have died later in hospital.

    Alistair said:

    I've sampled some of the mass-shootings from the Guardian data set
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/oct/02/mass-shootings-america-gun-violence

    And they all seem to match up with news reports of mass shootings in the local press at those locations and dates. Sometimes they are off by 1 or two victims - Guardian listed one as 2 dead 4 injured when the local news report had 1 dead and 5 injured. But I suppose one of the injured could have died later in hospital.

    They are counting 'domestics' and gang fights.

    Random 'shooters' seem considerably rarer than their numbers imply.

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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited December 2015
    One statement Mr Brind made quoting what Healey said about Thatcher does need to be corrected.
    Yes he did accuse Thatcher of "glorying in slaughter". But he then had to withdraw the remark. Rather puts a different perspective about the matter, if we are to aim for the highest standards of accuracy and context ?
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    chestnut said:

    Alistair said:

    I've sampled some of the mass-shootings from the Guardian data set
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/oct/02/mass-shootings-america-gun-violence

    And they all seem to match up with news reports of mass shootings in the local press at those locations and dates. Sometimes they are off by 1 or two victims - Guardian listed one as 2 dead 4 injured when the local news report had 1 dead and 5 injured. But I suppose one of the injured could have died later in hospital.

    Alistair said:

    I've sampled some of the mass-shootings from the Guardian data set
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/oct/02/mass-shootings-america-gun-violence

    And they all seem to match up with news reports of mass shootings in the local press at those locations and dates. Sometimes they are off by 1 or two victims - Guardian listed one as 2 dead 4 injured when the local news report had 1 dead and 5 injured. But I suppose one of the injured could have died later in hospital.

    They are counting 'domestics' and gang fights.

    Random 'shooters' seem considerably rarer than their numbers imply.

    More pre-school children get shot in the USA than policemen on active duty:

    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/oct/06/nicholas-kristof/nicholas-kristof-gun-deaths-preschoolers-police/

    Whether random or not, that's horrifying.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    XKCD's highly accurate depiction of the common cold :D:D

    http://xkcd.com/1612/
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,260
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Piddling little crack!! Whats the world coming to? Put yer foot down and get over it quicker!

    I must say I thought there was a second bridge open by now but its a year away. The article suggests its going to replace the original; I know its 50 years old but it ought to last longer than that surely.
    Labour and Tory governments cut out the maintenance for many many years and voila.
    The major anchor points have been inspected and are sound. The bridge does have a life. But that did not stop the billions being spent on the new bridge. If the current one is to be pulled down, is it wise to spend money keep it open for another 30 years?
    They are not planning to bring it down when the new one opens. It is still to be used for various purposes, ie public transport , cyclists and pedestrians.
    That's the plan AIUI. But the maintenance costs of the bridge are enormous, and problems like this will just add to the inspection regime and associated costs.

    It wouldn't surprise me if it was taken down within ten years of the new bridge opening next year. As I mentioned earlier, God knows how they'd dismantle it. I'm not sure demolishing a suspension bridge that size has ever been done before.
    Would be very interesting for sure.
    Thought this may be of interest to you both:
    http://jalopnik.com/the-ten-best-bridge-demolition-gifs-456340826
    :D
    excellent Rob
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078

    Anorak said:

    I can't quite grasp his point either - it's a drive-by shooting of issues he feels irked about

    RobD said:

    It reads like the sort of very angry drunken email I'd write at midnight to a work colleague, wake up at 3am having a panic attack... then feel exquisite relief as I discovered it in Drafts, rather than Sent Mail

    isam said:

    "Carry yourself with humility and dignity at all times"
    Wow, that post is so unprofessional.
    I suspect he had no sleep last night, what with the by election and all, and probably very little over the previous few nights. Then a few sherbets to celebrate the win. Never a good time to send a letter to the world, especially after building up a rep over the last few months. Still, made me chuckle.
    I think you've got his mood all wrong. He appears to have quit the Labour party this week. This is despairing, not ecstatic.

    I seem to be in a minority of one in finding it informative and full of good sense. Oh well.
    No,a minority of 2.Ian Warren has my respect,more so after his post,Take away the effing and blinding and other challenging rhetoric and his advice to Labour should be heeded and acted upon.As John Bird of the Big Issue has said,Tony Blair "ethnically cleansed" the Labour party of the working class.Labour still has a lot of yabba yabba and listening still to do to win them back.I'm very sorry to hear Ian has left the party.
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    Seems that the Government have used a post-by-election Friday to slip out news from DWP that huge numbers of people in 50-55 age range will lose out big time under the new 'flat rate' pension scheme:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12032794/Male-and-aged-51-55-You-can-expect-to-lose-20592-under-the-new-state-pension.html
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Just read the thread header, haven't read any of the comments yet, but would like to make this comment no matter how many people (many or none) have made it before me.

    I heard Mr Benn's speech. It didn't come across to me as 'oratory'. It was just sensible and level-headed. Sure it invoked echoes of Labour's past, but so it should have done.

    I only hope his speech can preserve something for a Labour future.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2015
    calum said:
    " But even if France had a mass shooting as deadly as the Paris attacks every month, its annual rate of gun homicide death would be lower than that in the United States." Wow. Note that's rate in deaths per million, not an absolute measure.
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    *Lights the blue touch paper and heads out to the cinema*

    @MSmithsonPB: Some UKIP tweeters have given the impression today that they don't think non-white people should vote.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    Even today BBC1 6pm News has plenty of anti-Corbyn material.

    Report on Oldham victory emphasises local candidate and then vox pop is entirely anti Corbyn - includes comments that he is "a wimp" and "not a leader".
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    Betting post
    How can a candidate that advocates remaining in the EC win the election to replace Cameron?

    For every one Conservative member wanting to remain there are 2.9 wanting to leave. A ratio of almost 3:1.
    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/12/party-members-unchanging-views-about-europe.html

    Answer = Only if the two candidates are both europhiles!
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    Once you get past the swearing, there's a lot of good advice in there that I expect is being completely ignored.
    Yeah, a bit of an edit and that's a good article.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Big jessies , a steel plate and a handful of bolts and it will be tickety-boo
    Malc, can we have a list of bridges you've worked on, as we might want to avoid them. :)
    Article today saying the steel for the new Forth Bridge is 14inchs short of joining at the centre and apparently vehicles will not be allowed to drive at less than 30 mph over the gap. Not sure if this is a joke or there is some truth in it. Maybe MalcG can give us his view on this story
    Also on the old Forth Bridge my wife and I drove over it on opening day in Sept 1964 and drove back and didn't know we had crossed due to intense fog
    You have never driven across the Forth Bridge.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    As ever the political commentators who keep telling us that the SNP isn't Scotland - keep undermining their own comments by equating the SNP with Scotland:

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/672756911561904128
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    *Lights the blue touch paper and heads out to the cinema*

    @MSmithsonPB: Some UKIP tweeters have given the impression today that they don't think non-white people should vote.

    I thought Mike was at a "secret" wedding? Hopefully not tweeting from the church pews :-)
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Big jessies , a steel plate and a handful of bolts and it will be tickety-boo
    Malc, can we have a list of bridges you've worked on, as we might want to avoid them. :)
    Article today saying the steel for the new Forth Bridge is 14inchs short of joining at the centre and apparently vehicles will not be allowed to drive at less than 30 mph over the gap. Not sure if this is a joke or there is some truth in it. Maybe MalcG can give us his view on this story
    It was an April 1st story ... :)

    Although it's hardly unknown for steelwork or precast concrete to arrive on site and be the wrong length.
    Isn't it also the case that the steel of suspension bridge platforms doesn't actually meet in the middle anyway?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700
    Dair said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Big jessies , a steel plate and a handful of bolts and it will be tickety-boo
    Malc, can we have a list of bridges you've worked on, as we might want to avoid them. :)
    Article today saying the steel for the new Forth Bridge is 14inchs short of joining at the centre and apparently vehicles will not be allowed to drive at less than 30 mph over the gap. Not sure if this is a joke or there is some truth in it. Maybe MalcG can give us his view on this story
    Also on the old Forth Bridge my wife and I drove over it on opening day in Sept 1964 and drove back and didn't know we had crossed due to intense fog
    You have never driven across the Forth Bridge.
    Unless driving a train.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2015
    @TCPoliticalBetting - That's a voodoo poll with a self-selected sample. I wouldn't take it too seriously. And in any case, the decision on whether to leave or not will have been made, by the British people, by then, which will completely change the dynamic. The next leader will almost certainly be someone on the winning side, whichever it is.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2015
    The oracle of Dan back on form:

    https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/672586651600859136

    Dan HodgesVerified account ‏@DPJHodges 6h6 hours ago
    Dear Corbynites. I know you want me to say "I was wrong, Labour's majority increased". But I can't. Because it didn't. I'm sorry.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,604
    Dair said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Big jessies , a steel plate and a handful of bolts and it will be tickety-boo
    Malc, can we have a list of bridges you've worked on, as we might want to avoid them. :)
    Article today saying the steel for the new Forth Bridge is 14inchs short of joining at the centre and apparently vehicles will not be allowed to drive at less than 30 mph over the gap. Not sure if this is a joke or there is some truth in it. Maybe MalcG can give us his view on this story
    It was an April 1st story ... :)

    Although it's hardly unknown for steelwork or precast concrete to arrive on site and be the wrong length.
    Isn't it also the case that the steel of suspension bridge platforms doesn't actually meet in the middle anyway?
    Leeds University has (had) the longest indoor corridor (in the world?) but it was started at opposite ends and didn't meet in the middle so there was a kink.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Piddling little crack!! Whats the world coming to? Put yer foot down and get over it quicker!

    I must say I thought there was a second bridge open by now but its a year away. The article suggests its going to replace the original; I know its 50 years old but it ought to last longer than that surely.
    Labour and Tory governments cut out the maintenance for many many years and voila.
    The major anchor points have been inspected and are sound. The bridge does have a life. But that did not stop the billions being spent on the new bridge. If the current one is to be pulled down, is it wise to spend money keep it open for another 30 years?
    The new bridge is not costing any billions.

    It's on budget at, IIRC £980m. Quite exceptional value for a bridge that length.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Seems that the Government have used a post-by-election Friday to slip out news from DWP that huge numbers of people in 50-55 age range will lose out big time under the new 'flat rate' pension scheme:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12032794/Male-and-aged-51-55-You-can-expect-to-lose-20592-under-the-new-state-pension.html

    Osborne is running out of demographics to pinch money to fund the over 65's.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700
    Roger said:

    DB

    "Cameron’s purpose, I believe, was to damage those Labour MPs who joined him in the division lobby on Wednesday night, especially Hilary Benn".


    I'm prepared to believe in almost any amount of duplicitous behaviour from an ex agency account exec-it's their speciality-but to believe that Cameron came up with a plan to damage Hillary Benn because he might make a speech which was so impressive he could become a future Labour leader.....Even Machiavelli wasn't that good

    Machiavelli didn't advocate damaging the enemy. You must obliterate them completely, leaving them incapable of attacking you in return, or not at all. We could all learn a lot from re-reading Machiavelli.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2015

    chestnut said:

    Alistair said:

    I've sampled some of the mass-shootings from the Guardian data set
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/oct/02/mass-shootings-america-gun-violence

    And they all seem to match up with news reports of mass shootings in the local press at those locations and dates. Sometimes they are off by 1 or two victims - Guardian listed one as 2 dead 4 injured when the local news report had 1 dead and 5 injured. But I suppose one of the injured could have died later in hospital.

    Alistair said:

    I've sampled some of the mass-shootings from the Guardian data set
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/oct/02/mass-shootings-america-gun-violence

    And they all seem to match up with news reports of mass shootings in the local press at those locations and dates. Sometimes they are off by 1 or two victims - Guardian listed one as 2 dead 4 injured when the local news report had 1 dead and 5 injured. But I suppose one of the injured could have died later in hospital.

    They are counting 'domestics' and gang fights.

    Random 'shooters' seem considerably rarer than their numbers imply.

    More pre-school children get shot in the USA than policemen on active duty:

    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/oct/06/nicholas-kristof/nicholas-kristof-gun-deaths-preschoolers-police/

    Whether random or not, that's horrifying.
    A domestic that results in 4+ casualties seems pretty significant to me.

    Edit: I presume the pre schooler stat comes from accidental discharge rather thsn deliberat malice. although the slack level of gun safetypracticed by those who would let a 3 year old get hold of a gun is pretty malicious.
  • Options
    Dair said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Big jessies , a steel plate and a handful of bolts and it will be tickety-boo
    Malc, can we have a list of bridges you've worked on, as we might want to avoid them. :)
    Article today saying the steel for the new Forth Bridge is 14inchs short of joining at the centre and apparently vehicles will not be allowed to drive at less than 30 mph over the gap. Not sure if this is a joke or there is some truth in it. Maybe MalcG can give us his view on this story
    It was an April 1st story ... :)

    Although it's hardly unknown for steelwork or precast concrete to arrive on site and be the wrong length.
    Isn't it also the case that the steel of suspension bridge platforms doesn't actually meet in the middle anyway?
    I'm sure expansion joints allow for a wide range of movement due to temperature changes.
    The US Lockheed Blackbird) leaks fuel on the ground when it is not flying because expansion due to heat when it is flying closes the gaps.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,853
    Benn's speech was above average for the commons, but it's hardly a good speech (dreadful in areas). Within the context of recent parliamentary speeches it may of course be great. Certainly a fine tight-rope act.

    Corbyn has defined himself as untouchable now following Oldham. I doubt that everyone will wish to craft their negotiation of the high-wire quite as carefully as Hilary did.

    No good will come of Corbyn, less of McDonnell, and it's hard to see Benn being other than a firebreak.

    Real change in the left simply has to come. My suspicion is that I'll like the resulting mob (or mobs) even less than I do the current shower. At least they'll have some sort of self-consistency though.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,322
    Dair said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Piddling little crack!! Whats the world coming to? Put yer foot down and get over it quicker!

    I must say I thought there was a second bridge open by now but its a year away. The article suggests its going to replace the original; I know its 50 years old but it ought to last longer than that surely.
    Labour and Tory governments cut out the maintenance for many many years and voila.
    The major anchor points have been inspected and are sound. The bridge does have a life. But that did not stop the billions being spent on the new bridge. If the current one is to be pulled down, is it wise to spend money keep it open for another 30 years?
    The new bridge is not costing any billions.

    It's on budget at, IIRC £980m. Quite exceptional value for a bridge that length.
    Where on earth do you get that figure from? Most sources indicate £1.3 to £1.4 billion for the project (inc. services such as approach roads)
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,322
    Dair said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Big jessies , a steel plate and a handful of bolts and it will be tickety-boo
    Malc, can we have a list of bridges you've worked on, as we might want to avoid them. :)
    Article today saying the steel for the new Forth Bridge is 14inchs short of joining at the centre and apparently vehicles will not be allowed to drive at less than 30 mph over the gap. Not sure if this is a joke or there is some truth in it. Maybe MalcG can give us his view on this story
    It was an April 1st story ... :)

    Although it's hardly unknown for steelwork or precast concrete to arrive on site and be the wrong length.
    Isn't it also the case that the steel of suspension bridge platforms doesn't actually meet in the middle anyway?
    They do meet in the middle. There are, as in all (especially steel) large structures, expansion joints. But structurally they do meet in the middle - side loadings demand that, as much as anything else.

    Suspension and cable-stayed bridges are subtly different AFAICR. And I'll let the experts witter on about point loads versus rolling loads ...
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,604

    Roger said:

    DB

    "Cameron’s purpose, I believe, was to damage those Labour MPs who joined him in the division lobby on Wednesday night, especially Hilary Benn".


    I'm prepared to believe in almost any amount of duplicitous behaviour from an ex agency account exec-it's their speciality-but to believe that Cameron came up with a plan to damage Hillary Benn because he might make a speech which was so impressive he could become a future Labour leader.....Even Machiavelli wasn't that good

    Machiavelli didn't advocate damaging the enemy. You must obliterate them completely, leaving them incapable of attacking you in return, or not at all. We could all learn a lot from re-reading Machiavelli.
    From my hazy memory of reading him ISTR that he was a lot less Machiavellian than people who invoke him would otherwise have it. ISTR a lot of sensible measures which gave his enemies every chance to do the right (mutual) thing.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Piddling little crack!! Whats the world coming to? Put yer foot down and get over it quicker!

    I must say I thought there was a second bridge open by now but its a year away. The article suggests its going to replace the original; I know its 50 years old but it ought to last longer than that surely.
    Labour and Tory governments cut out the maintenance for many many years and voila.
    The major anchor points have been inspected and are sound. The bridge does have a life. But that did not stop the billions being spent on the new bridge. If the current one is to be pulled down, is it wise to spend money keep it open for another 30 years?
    The new bridge is not costing any billions.

    It's on budget at, IIRC £980m. Quite exceptional value for a bridge that length.
    Where on earth do you get that figure from? Most sources indicate £1.3 to £1.4 billion for the project (inc. services such as approach roads)
    Meh, should have googled instead of relying on memory. No idea where I got £980m from.
  • Options
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    The BBC have a piccie of one of the cracks in the Firth Bridge:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35001277

    Difficult ...

    Ouch! That doesn't look like it will be fixed with a mig welder, I wonder how quickly they can speed up work to get at least some of the new bridge open more quickly than planned?
    More worryingly, this was apparently a member that was not thought at risk of failure, and they have found defects in other members. This means that their assumptions and calculations of the forces in the structure may be well off for some reason.

    There has to be a small chance it will never fully reopen, even with weight limits.
    Piddling little crack!! Whats the world coming to? Put yer foot down and get over it quicker!

    I must say I thought there was a second bridge open by now but its a year away. The article suggests its going to replace the original; I know its 50 years old but it ought to last longer than that surely.
    Labour and Tory governments cut out the maintenance for many many years and voila.
    The major anchor points have been inspected and are sound. The bridge does have a life. But that did not stop the billions being spent on the new bridge. If the current one is to be pulled down, is it wise to spend money keep it open for another 30 years?
    The new bridge is not costing any billions.

    It's on budget at, IIRC £980m. Quite exceptional value for a bridge that length.
    Where on earth do you get that figure from? Most sources indicate £1.3 to £1.4 billion for the project (inc. services such as approach roads)
    Meh, should have googled instead of relying on memory. No idea where I got £980m from.
    That cheap Chinese steel helped keep the costs down.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,853
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    DB

    "Cameron’s purpose, I believe, was to damage those Labour MPs who joined him in the division lobby on Wednesday night, especially Hilary Benn".


    I'm prepared to believe in almost any amount of duplicitous behaviour from an ex agency account exec-it's their speciality-but to believe that Cameron came up with a plan to damage Hillary Benn because he might make a speech which was so impressive he could become a future Labour leader.....Even Machiavelli wasn't that good

    Machiavelli didn't advocate damaging the enemy. You must obliterate them completely, leaving them incapable of attacking you in return, or not at all. We could all learn a lot from re-reading Machiavelli.
    From my hazy memory of reading him ISTR that he was a lot less Machiavellian than people who invoke him would otherwise have it. ISTR a lot of sensible measures which gave his enemies every chance to do the right (mutual) thing.
    (In the absence of a re-reading.) It seems to me that he'd like a subtle damaging blow that finished up being fatal rather than any other method. Bombing probably wouldn't have seemed to him to be a good tool of the Prince. I don't believe that he'd have ever advocated obliteration - that's more Genghis Khan, and I may be doing even him a dis-service.

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,322
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:



    -snip-

    Thought this may be of interest to you both:
    http://jalopnik.com/the-ten-best-bridge-demolition-gifs-456340826
    :D

    May I also thank you for that?

    I remember reading how modern engineers (sorry JJ) were storing up problems for their successors to solve with prestressing in massive structures, e.g. skyscrapers. Huge amounts of strain energy stored in those, I gathered.

    It will be interesting to see how they demolish FB2 (FB1, the railway one, seems to be doing OK now it is actually being maintained). I can't remember the navigational details - it ain't Pompey - but if it is shallow enough, it is possible that the MoD might have a few issues with just dumping the steelwork in the Forth given the need for the new carriers to be docked at Rosyth.

    I think you mean post-tensioning, rather than pre-stressing (pre-tensioned). If people want I could get boring about the differences, but suffice it to say that post-tensioned structure are bombs waiting to go off. Pre-stressed are not.

    http://www.concretenetwork.com/post-tension/basics.html

    I've experienced the demolition of a small post-tensioned structure. Impressive isn't the word. Dangerous is.

    As for demolishing the Forth bridge: they wouldn't let it be dropped into the Forth. Ecologists would have a field day. It would have to be dismantled. And that's a massive headache.

    (I don't know if you saw earlier, but I found a link to a tunnel under the Forth)

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/scotland-blog/2014/apr/30/scotland-firthofforth-coal
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2015
    SeanT said:

    Trump on 36%. He's possibly going to win. And this is BEFORE San Bernardino and ISIS

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html

    You haven't seen the best of it yet.
    After punters lost a lot of money betting on Christie, then on Bush, now they are going to lose more money on Rubio:

    http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/bombshell-allegation-surface-against-marco-rubio-this-could-change-everything/

    Rubio might have a Gary Hart 1988 problem, an extramarital problem.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    SeanT said:

    Trump on 36%. He's possibly going to win. And this is BEFORE San Bernardino and ISIS

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html

    No idea what Bush is doing around 9-1 still.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Trump on 36%. He's possibly going to win. And this is BEFORE San Bernardino and ISIS

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html

    You haven't seen the best of it yet.
    After punters lost a lot of money betting on Christie, then on Bush, now they are going to lose more money on Rubio:

    http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/bombshell-allegation-surface-against-marco-rubio-this-could-change-everything/

    Rubio might have a Gary Hart 1988 problem, an extramarital problem.
    Do most punters just pile on the favourite or something ?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    *Lights the blue touch paper and heads out to the cinema*

    @MSmithsonPB: Some UKIP tweeters have given the impression today that they don't think non-white people should vote.

    That's contentious?
  • Options

    @TCPoliticalBetting - That's a voodoo poll with a self-selected sample. I wouldn't take it too seriously. And in any case, the decision on whether to leave or not will have been made, by the British people, by then, which will completely change the dynamic. The next leader will almost certainly be someone on the winning side, whichever it is.

    The ConHome survey of members (with some verification by an MR company) back in 2005 proved a good guide on Cameron beating Davis. But if you wish to ignore this that is fine by me. If you also choose to believe that the EC will not be a major factor in the minds of members when selecting Cameron's replacement, then OK, your choice, your money.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,151
    SeanT said:

    Trump on 36%. He's possibly going to win. And this is BEFORE San Bernardino and ISIS

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html

    Amazingly he is still going. He's spent almost no money, and most of his skeletons were out of the closet years ago.

    At what point does the huge ego take over and he really believes to think he can win the nomination?
  • Options
    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    The trouble is for the comparison and Con hopes of exploiting it is that the falklands was a simple 'just' war where the armed forces of another country invaded British territory and were repelled. Simple, easy to justify, popular and with a clear 'mission accomplished'. None of this will apply to the Syria debacle-in-waiting, just as making Libya safe for jihadis didn't see Clegg returned to a massive majority by an adoring patriotic public.
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Just a note: IS claims the San Bernadino shootings as its own in the last hour.

    The US authorities were expecting something. I mentioned just around a week ago that there were strong rumours of something going to occur in the US.
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited December 2015
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Just heard about those Tyson Fury comments. I hope he doesn't win SPOTY. Comparing homosexuality to paedophilia? Believing women's main function is to be in 'in the kitchen and on her back?' I don't envy any of the women unfortunate enough, to be in his life....

    What a character. I think I'll be rooting for good old boring Dr Steelhammer if he gets a rematch.
    I had to google 'Dr Steelhammer' to know who you were talking about. I have to say, I'm not a big fan of boxing and have only heard of Wladimir Klitschko because he's married to Hayden Panettiere.
    I'm not a big boxing fan either, but he and his brother certainly have good ring names, thanks to their PhDs, which makes them worthy of note regardless. It's no wonder Vitali won the Kiev mayoral elections given he went by Dr Ironfist when he boxed, I'd vote for him.
    Sorry to be vulgar, but when Lennox Lewis was going to fight one of the 7ft tall Klitschko brothers the Sunday Sport headline was

    "Lewis: I'm going to lick big Klit!"

    Did make me roar with laughter at the time
    That wasn't Lennox, it was Tyson Fury. Lennox far too classy for that.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    DB

    "Cameron’s purpose, I believe, was to damage those Labour MPs who joined him in the division lobby on Wednesday night, especially Hilary Benn".


    I'm prepared to believe in almost any amount of duplicitous behaviour from an ex agency account exec-it's their speciality-but to believe that Cameron came up with a plan to damage Hillary Benn because he might make a speech which was so impressive he could become a future Labour leader.....Even Machiavelli wasn't that good

    Machiavelli didn't advocate damaging the enemy. You must obliterate them completely, leaving them incapable of attacking you in return, or not at all. We could all learn a lot from re-reading Machiavelli.
    From my hazy memory of reading him ISTR that he was a lot less Machiavellian than people who invoke him would otherwise have it. ISTR a lot of sensible measures which gave his enemies every chance to do the right (mutual) thing.
    Isn't that the right use of Machiavellian? To get your opponent to do something they think is clever but suits you?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    A lefty friend of mine posted this on Facebook:

    http://tinyurl.com/qfc9fwo

    So I responded with this:

    They missed out the PM: White male, son of a former PM.

    That said, it is an interesting mix. Here's Labour's current crop - I'd say Chris Bryant is the most qualified of the lot:

    Jeremy Corbyn - Trade union official
    Tom Watson - Labour Party National Development Officer for Youth
    Angela Eagle - Trade union official
    John McDonnel - Trade union official
    Charlie Falconer - Barrister/Tony Blair's flatmate
    Seema Malhotra - Management consultant at Accenture and PWC
    Andy Burnham - Claims to have run a publication
    Hilary Benn - Wedgie Benn's son and trade union official
    Rosie Winterton - John Prescott's personal assistant
    Heidi Alexander - Researcher for an MP
    Lucy Powell - Mastermind of Labour's 2015 GE campaign
    Owen Smith - BBC Radio Four producer
    Maria Eagle - Solicitor
    John Trickett - Unknown
    Lisa Nandy - Researcher/policy adviser for charities

    Chris Bryant - Priest and graduate from Mansfield College - the best college in Oxford

    Lilian Greenwood - Trade Union Official
    Vernon Coaker - History Teacher
    Diane Abbott - Researcher at Thames Television
    Ian Murray - Labour's only Scottish MP
    Nia Griffith - Teacher
    Kerry McCarthy - Labour councillor
    Kate Green - Worked at Barclays Bank
    Michael Dugher - Special Advisor
    Gloria De Piero - GMTV Political Correspondent
    Anglea Smith - Head of Political and Public Relations at the League Against Cruel Sports
    Luciana Berger - Member of the NEC of NUS
    Steve Bassam - Social worker
    Catherine McKinnell - Employment solicitor
    Jon Ashworth - Labour researcher
    John Healey - Disability rights campaigner
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,976
    edited December 2015
    Speedy

    "Dan HodgesVerified account ‏@DPJHodges 6h6 hours ago
    Dear Corbynites. I know you want me to say "I was wrong, Labour's majority increased". But I can't. Because it didn't. I'm sorry."

    A very Desperate Dan
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    San Bernadino shooting: Now definitely an act of terrorism. One family lost six children in the shooting...
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,151
    Y0kel said:

    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Just heard about those Tyson Fury comments. I hope he doesn't win SPOTY. Comparing homosexuality to paedophilia? Believing women's main function is to be in 'in the kitchen and on her back?' I don't envy any of the women unfortunate enough, to be in his life....

    What a character. I think I'll be rooting for good old boring Dr Steelhammer if he gets a rematch.
    I had to google 'Dr Steelhammer' to know who you were talking about. I have to say, I'm not a big fan of boxing and have only heard of Wladimir Klitschko because he's married to Hayden Panettiere.
    I'm not a big boxing fan either, but he and his brother certainly have good ring names, thanks to their PhDs, which makes them worthy of note regardless. It's no wonder Vitali won the Kiev mayoral elections given he went by Dr Ironfist when he boxed, I'd vote for him.
    Sorry to be vulgar, but when Lennox Lewis was going to fight one of the 7ft tall Klitschko brothers the Sunday Sport headline was

    "Lewis: I'm going to lick big Klit!"

    Did make me roar with laughter at the time
    That wasn't Lennox, it was Tyson Fury. Lennox far too classy for that.
    That was the Sunday Sport's innuendo-laden summary of what Lennox said.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Y0kel said:

    Just a note: IS claims the San Bernadino shootings as its own in the last hour.

    The US authorities were expecting something. I mentioned just around a week ago that there were strong rumours of something going to occur in the US.

    And potentially at least, there are millions of these 'sleepers' around the world...
  • Options
    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Speedy said:

    Seems that the Government have used a post-by-election Friday to slip out news from DWP that huge numbers of people in 50-55 age range will lose out big time under the new 'flat rate' pension scheme:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12032794/Male-and-aged-51-55-You-can-expect-to-lose-20592-under-the-new-state-pension.html

    Osborne is running out of demographics to pinch money to fund the over 65's.
    I have just scraped in under the current system,it is too complicated to understand if my SERPS and SS2P would have been worse under the new system. I am happy, got what I signed up for,however, just discovered they will deduct nearly a weeks pension off me when I start, it depends on your NI number, some get paid from their birthday, others have to wait a few days.
    In my case the delay is costing me £250, Oh well, I have had worse results.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267
    Roger said:

    Speedy

    "Dan HodgesVerified account ‏@DPJHodges 6h6 hours ago
    Dear Corbynites. I know you want me to say "I was wrong, Labour's majority increased". But I can't. Because it didn't. I'm sorry."

    A very Desperate Dan

    Isn't it the case that Labour's percentage share increased but its actual majority went down - from ca. 14,000 to ca. 10,000? So he's not actually wrong.

  • Options
    Speedy said:

    Seems that the Government have used a post-by-election Friday to slip out news from DWP that huge numbers of people in 50-55 age range will lose out big time under the new 'flat rate' pension scheme:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/12032794/Male-and-aged-51-55-You-can-expect-to-lose-20592-under-the-new-state-pension.html

    Osborne is running out of demographics to pinch money to fund the over 65's.
    £600 a week ('up to', so for some it will be less) and overall 30% worse off to some degree whilst 50 % better off.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,949
    Evening all :)

    Plenty of comment on Oldham but I was out on a cold and windy night in the darkest recesses of East London doing my bit for the LD cause in Boleyn Ward in Newham. The Labour election machine here is an impressive beast to behold - canvassing groups of six to eight patrol the Ward and they treat it as a hyper-marginal.

    The other parties just cannot compete and in Sheree Miller the LDs had a fine candidate and she worked very hard and her "reward" was 9.1% of the vote and the remotest of second places. To be fair, the LDs hadn't even stood a candidate since Boleyn was created and there were just a couple of members in the whole Ward so it wasn't bad from a standing start.

    The Conservative vote fell sharply, as it did in a number of other places last night. UKIP polled 10% in Beckton last summer but were beaten by the Greens last night.

    The turnout was just under 21%, derisory for a Ward which managed 44% in 2014 but what do you expect in early December ?

    The story was a relentless Labour advance on numbers the type of which you used to see in the south wales coalfields.. Labour got its vote out (including postals) and polled over 70% with a swing of nearly 10% from the Conservatives.

    Lessons ? Probably none of any value - Newham is a one-party State and on last night's evidence 2018 will be another lock-out for the non-Labour parties and Sir Robin Wales (if he chooses) will continue as Mayor.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    z
    Y0kel said:

    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Just heard about those Tyson Fury comments. I hope he doesn't win SPOTY. Comparing homosexuality to paedophilia? Believing women's main function is to be in 'in the kitchen and on her back?' I don't envy any of the women unfortunate enough, to be in his life....

    What a character. I think I'll be rooting for good old boring Dr Steelhammer if he gets a rematch.
    I had to google 'Dr Steelhammer' to know who you were talking about. I have to say, I'm not a big fan of boxing and have only heard of Wladimir Klitschko because he's married to Hayden Panettiere.
    I'm not a big boxing fan either, but he and his brother certainly have good ring names, thanks to their PhDs, which makes them worthy of note regardless. It's no wonder Vitali won the Kiev mayoral elections given he went by Dr Ironfist when he boxed, I'd vote for him.
    Sorry to be vulgar, but when Lennox Lewis was going to fight one of the 7ft tall Klitschko brothers the Sunday Sport headline was

    "Lewis: I'm going to lick big Klit!"

    Did make me roar with laughter at the time
    That wasn't Lennox, it was Tyson Fury. Lennox far too classy for that.
    Well it was about 12 years ago, so I would be surprised if it were Fury

    I don't think Lewis said it! It was a Sunday Sport headline
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Trump on 36%. He's possibly going to win. And this is BEFORE San Bernardino and ISIS

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html

    "Republican voters are most sharply divided by education. Among those GOP voters who hold college degrees, the race is a close contest between the top four contenders, with Cruz slightly in front at 22%, Carson and Rubio tied at 19% and Trump at 18%. Among those without college degrees, Trump holds a runaway lead: 46% support the businessman, compared with 12% for Cruz, 11% for Carson and just 8% for Rubio."
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,151
    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    Trump on 36%. He's possibly going to win. And this is BEFORE San Bernardino and ISIS

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html

    Amazingly he is still going. He's spent almost no money, and most of his skeletons were out of the closet years ago.

    At what point does the huge ego take over and he really believes to think he can win the nomination?
    I think he could win the prez. Improbable, but definitely not impossible.
    Agreed.

    I still can see Hillary coming unstuck over her emails, as an IT guy there's lots that doesn't add up if there wasn't deliberate intention. The alternative Democrat appears to be Bernie Sanders, who's as unelectable as Corbyn is here.

    An interesting first half of next year to see who's nominated, before the main race begins.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,302
    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    Trump on 36%. He's possibly going to win. And this is BEFORE San Bernardino and ISIS

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html

    Amazingly he is still going. He's spent almost no money, and most of his skeletons were out of the closet years ago.

    At what point does the huge ego take over and he really believes to think he can win the nomination?
    If Trump is the Republican nominee, Bloomberg runs.
  • Options
    Off Topic (and not before time)

    I was interested to see that The Times have chosen "The Ice Twins" by SK Tremayne (aka our very own Sean Thomas) as its free ebook of the month to the newspaper's subscribers.
    I don't know how these deals work from the author's point of view as they must play hell with the title's paperback sales, at least over the short term.
    Presumaly Sean is paid a handsome lump sum in return for agreeing to such an arrangement and I was imagining what he might to treat himself to on receipt of such largesse - an extended winter's stay in some exotic part of the world perhaps?
    And then I remembered that he already travels the globe to enjoy any number of freebie holidays in his capacity as a reviewer. A lucky s*d is that Thomas and no mistake!
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    If only Mr Brind did not carry so much resentment and baggage from his view of history. I agree with Mr Brind that Cameron made a partisan remark. It was wrong and diminished Cameron.

    But we also have from Mr Brind a set of attacks on Thatcher for winning an election on the back of her decision and hers alone, to win back the Falklands. That was a courageous decision in the face of some around her that wanted to back off and talk to the invaders.

    If we ever need to wonder why Kinnock never became PM "Mr Neil Kinnock re-opened the row over the Falklands war last night when he told a Television South audience that it was a pity soldiers had to die to prove that Mrs Thatcher had guts."

    Is it not also prescient that Mr. Brind completely ignore Ed Miliband's shenanigans barely 2 years ago - maybe he just spent too long working for al -Beeb.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,323
    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    Trump on 36%. He's possibly going to win. And this is BEFORE San Bernardino and ISIS

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html

    Amazingly he is still going. He's spent almost no money, and most of his skeletons were out of the closet years ago.

    At what point does the huge ego take over and he really believes to think he can win the nomination?
    I think he could win the prez. Improbable, but definitely not impossible.
    Agreed.

    I still can see Hillary coming unstuck over her emails, as an IT guy there's lots that doesn't add up if there wasn't deliberate intention. The alternative Democrat appears to be Bernie Sanders, who's as unelectable as Corbyn is here.

    An interesting first half of next year to see who's nominated, before the main race begins.
    Do not be so sure, Quinnipiac this week

    Clinton – 45%
    Rubio – 44%

    Clinton – 46%
    Carson – 43%

    Clinton – 47%
    Cruz – 42%

    Clinton – 47%
    Trump – 41%

    Sanders 44% (41%)
    Rubio 43% (47%)

    Sanders 47% (39%)
    Carson 41% (51%)

    Sanders 49% (46%)
    Trump 41% (44%)

    Sanders 49% (44%)
    Cruz 39% (45%)

    The Hispanic vote is a big problem for the GOP still and especially Trump, the news tonight may help Trump become nominee thanks to his border controls policy but Hillary is a far tougher cookie than Obama and more than capable of toughening her rhetoric against terrorism when needed, Sanders policy of basically getting out of the Middle East may also have appeal
    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2307
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,323
    tlg86 said:

    A lefty friend of mine posted this on Facebook:

    http://tinyurl.com/qfc9fwo

    So I responded with this:

    They missed out the PM: White male, son of a former PM.

    That said, it is an interesting mix. Here's Labour's current crop - I'd say Chris Bryant is the most qualified of the lot:

    Jeremy Corbyn - Trade union official
    Tom Watson - Labour Party National Development Officer for Youth
    Angela Eagle - Trade union official
    John McDonnel - Trade union official
    Charlie Falconer - Barrister/Tony Blair's flatmate
    Seema Malhotra - Management consultant at Accenture and PWC
    Andy Burnham - Claims to have run a publication
    Hilary Benn - Wedgie Benn's son and trade union official
    Rosie Winterton - John Prescott's personal assistant
    Heidi Alexander - Researcher for an MP
    Lucy Powell - Mastermind of Labour's 2015 GE campaign
    Owen Smith - BBC Radio Four producer
    Maria Eagle - Solicitor
    John Trickett - Unknown
    Lisa Nandy - Researcher/policy adviser for charities

    Chris Bryant - Priest and graduate from Mansfield College - the best college in Oxford

    Lilian Greenwood - Trade Union Official
    Vernon Coaker - History Teacher
    Diane Abbott - Researcher at Thames Television
    Ian Murray - Labour's only Scottish MP
    Nia Griffith - Teacher
    Kerry McCarthy - Labour councillor
    Kate Green - Worked at Barclays Bank
    Michael Dugher - Special Advisor
    Gloria De Piero - GMTV Political Correspondent
    Anglea Smith - Head of Political and Public Relations at the League Against Cruel Sports
    Luciana Berger - Member of the NEC of NUS
    Steve Bassam - Social worker
    Catherine McKinnell - Employment solicitor
    Jon Ashworth - Labour researcher
    John Healey - Disability rights campaigner

    Plus ex nightclub bouncer and part time drama teacher
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,323
    SeanT said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 5m5 minutes ago
    Update - The FBI says it is officially investigating the #California mass shooting as an act of #terrorism

    Obama is tostada

    It does not look like an ISIS planned attack, just two disgruntled former employees who happened to be Muslim and decided to link a grudge attack to support for ISIS, nonetheless does show US not immune to homegrown terrorism either
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Speedy

    "Dan HodgesVerified account ‏@DPJHodges 6h6 hours ago
    Dear Corbynites. I know you want me to say "I was wrong, Labour's majority increased". But I can't. Because it didn't. I'm sorry."

    A very Desperate Dan

    Isn't it the case that Labour's percentage share increased but its actual majority went down - from ca. 14,000 to ca. 10,000? So he's not actually wrong.

    The majority did increase in % terms from 34% to 39% - so Hodges is showing psephological ignorance here.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,853
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    Trump on 36%. He's possibly going to win. And this is BEFORE San Bernardino and ISIS

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html

    Amazingly he is still going. He's spent almost no money, and most of his skeletons were out of the closet years ago.

    At what point does the huge ego take over and he really believes to think he can win the nomination?
    If Trump is the Republican nominee, Bloomberg runs.
    I'll run too! As fast as I can.

    He may well be the nominee, and there's a little bit of a risk he might beat Hillary.

    I guess the history shows that total clowns can make decent public servants, but, my word, the American people will be testing the bounds of that idea.

    I guess it's just 'Buy SpaceX' !
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    SeanT said:

    Y0kel said:

    Just a note: IS claims the San Bernadino shootings as its own in the last hour.

    The US authorities were expecting something. I mentioned just around a week ago that there were strong rumours of something going to occur in the US.

    If that is true then why did Obama make these remarks about America being safe from ISIS, and an ISIS attack is unlikely, and "we have no specific warnings".

    These are disastrous headlines for Obama, in retrospect

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/262111-obama-us-safe-from-major-isis-attack

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/03/politics/barack-obama-isis/

    Did the FBI not tell the prez they WERE expecting something? Doubt it. So your story is untrue.

    Obama is in deep shit.
    Only saying what I'm aware of. Take it as you wish.

    The statement from IS is via a 'press agency' used as a feed for IS on occasion so its a fair chance of being legit. Last night I posted the question was it Al Qaeda or IS and was it directed or merely 'inspired by'. It was that clear that this had the smell had a terror motive driven by Islamic extremism. Even as the incident was ongoing I posted that the situation was best described as 'unconventional' .

    It was well known from the US agencies themselves that there was a raised possibility of trouble.

    The police had a suspect profile within 2 hours or less of 'middle eastern or Latino'..Farooks name was circulating not long after as well. One of them at least was on a US list, the other on watch lists of overseas agencies.

    What Obama was doing talking about gun control as a primary concern when that kind of info was in circulation, the cops had found explosives and Homeland Security as an overall agency was taking a keen interest beats me, but he did.

    On another note, a notable force of the Turkish military has reportedly entered Iraq.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,151
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    Trump on 36%. He's possibly going to win. And this is BEFORE San Bernardino and ISIS

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html

    Amazingly he is still going. He's spent almost no money, and most of his skeletons were out of the closet years ago.

    At what point does the huge ego take over and he really believes to think he can win the nomination?
    If Trump is the Republican nominee, Bloomberg runs.
    I heard that he would run 3rd party if it ended up Trump v Sanders. How that would split the vote in 50 FPTP contests is anyone's guess but he would surely be in with a shout of winning.

    Would anyone care to enlighten if 50% of electoral college votes are required to win, just the plurality of the votes under a FPTP system, or something more complicated?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,323
    SeanT said:

    It is difficult to overstate how damaging the "ISIS" link to San Bernardino might be, for Obama.

    Even the Guardian says it is Obama's "worst political nightmare"



    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/04/san-bernardino-shooting-isis-link-obama-foreign-policy-gun-control

    Expect Ms Clinton to distance herself very hastily from a tainted incumbent, or she will suffer collateral.

    Indeed, though it does seem to be indirectly rather than directly ISIS linked, Hillary will throw him under a bus if needed as is par for the course for the Clintons
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 5m5 minutes ago
    Update - The FBI says it is officially investigating the #California mass shooting as an act of #terrorism

    Obama is tostada

    It does not look like an ISIS planned attack, just two disgruntled former employees who happened to be Muslim and decided to link a grudge attack to support for ISIS, nonetheless does show US not immune to homegrown terrorism either
    I don't think this is true. It certainly looks like they targeted this work place over a grudge and probably wasn't the target they were planning. Nobody has a bomb making factory in their garage over a workplace grudge. They might not have been directed by ISIS and self started instead, but this isn't just two disgruntled employees go loco.
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 5m5 minutes ago
    Update - The FBI says it is officially investigating the #California mass shooting as an act of #terrorism

    Obama is tostada

    It does not look like an ISIS planned attack, just two disgruntled former employees who happened to be Muslim and decided to link a grudge attack to support for ISIS, nonetheless does show US not immune to homegrown terrorism either
    Lot of weapons, lot of explosives for being disgruntled employees. And that idea fails to explain their appearance on watchlists of at least 3 agencies.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,382
    edited December 2015
    SeanT said:

    It is difficult to overstate how damaging the "ISIS" link to San Bernardino might be, for Obama.

    Even the Guardian says it is Obama's "worst political nightmare"



    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/04/san-bernardino-shooting-isis-link-obama-foreign-policy-gun-control

    Expect Ms Clinton to distance herself very hastily from a tainted incumbent, or she will suffer collateral.

    As Obama isn't standing again, it isn't going to really affect him. It isn't like he has much of a legacy to trash anyway. First black president and....dsyfunctional ObamaCare..and...golfed more than Bush?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267
    justin124 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Speedy

    "Dan HodgesVerified account ‏@DPJHodges 6h6 hours ago
    Dear Corbynites. I know you want me to say "I was wrong, Labour's majority increased". But I can't. Because it didn't. I'm sorry."

    A very Desperate Dan

    Isn't it the case that Labour's percentage share increased but its actual majority went down - from ca. 14,000 to ca. 10,000? So he's not actually wrong.

    The majority did increase in % terms from 34% to 39% - so Hodges is showing psephological ignorance here.
    Which is what I said. But the actual numbers were down. Labour's numerical majority over the second party was lower than it was in May.

    It doesn't really matter: it's still a safe Labour seat.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,151
    Looks like one academic has finally grown a pair and said what needs to be said: :+1:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationopinion/12034288/Wimpering-students-need-to-grow-up-or-get-out-of-university.html

    A university should be a “safe space” – for free speech, for challenging dogmas and assumptions, for putting forward innovative ideas, for robust debate, for discovery, for intellectual courage. It should not be a safe space for preserving the timidities and assurances of pre-university childhood and adolescence.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,323
    SeanT said:

    I don't want to be ghoulish, but there may be betting implication from the San Berno story.

    This must make more rightwing nominees and a more rightwing president more likely.

    Given Paris only happened a few weeks ago and was on a far larger scale and was directly, not indirectly, a result of ISIS I think this has already filtered into the polls. Trump is already comfortably leading polls for the GOP nomination and this will increase his margin further, Hillary will need to toughen her rhetoric too but could also face a bigger challenge from Sanders, especially in NH, as the liberal left tries to push exit from the Middle East
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2015
    test
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    Trump on 36%. He's possibly going to win. And this is BEFORE San Bernardino and ISIS

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html

    Amazingly he is still going. He's spent almost no money, and most of his skeletons were out of the closet years ago.

    At what point does the huge ego take over and he really believes to think he can win the nomination?
    If Trump is the Republican nominee, Bloomberg runs.
    I heard that he would run 3rd party if it ended up Trump v Sanders. How that would split the vote in 50 FPTP contests is anyone's guess but he would surely be in with a shout of winning.

    Would anyone care to enlighten if 50% of electoral college votes are required to win, just the plurality of the votes under a FPTP system, or something more complicated?
    Bloomberg won't have a chance, americans will never vote for someone who wants to ban soda drinks and junk food, no matter how long he was Mayor of New York (which is not a plus either for most of the country).
    At best his impact will be like John Anderson in 1980.

    As to the electoral college, if no candidate gets 270 votes out of 538 then the House of Representatives elects the President and the Senate the Vice President.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,323
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 5m5 minutes ago
    Update - The FBI says it is officially investigating the #California mass shooting as an act of #terrorism

    Obama is tostada

    It does not look like an ISIS planned attack, just two disgruntled former employees who happened to be Muslim and decided to link a grudge attack to support for ISIS, nonetheless does show US not immune to homegrown terrorism either
    "Who happened to be Muslim".

    Are you for real? What a ridiculous bucket of dribble. You make it sound like their religion was irrelevant, and that they made pipe bombs and cached ammo, just in case they had a row over the water cooler and it got out of hand.

    What a cretinous position.

    They had phone calls and social media links with Mid East jihadis, it looks like at least one of them was radicalised. This was an Islamist attack, by American jihadis, inspired by ISIS.

    "There is no evidence the Islamic State directed Ms. Milik , and her husband, Syed Rizwan Farook, to stage the attacks, the officials said. But the Facebook post has led investigators to believe that the couple took inspiration from the group, they said." Therefore ISIS did not direct this attack, the fact she had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in a Facebook posting is something which could be done by any killer. The Paris attacks were co-ordinated and directed by ISIS, of course the end result is the same and the problem of jihadism is the same but there is a difference
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/us/tashfeen-malik-islamic-state.html
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,151
    Y0kel said:

    SeanT said:

    Y0kel said:

    Just a note: IS claims the San Bernadino shootings as its own in the last hour.

    The US authorities were expecting something. I mentioned just around a week ago that there were strong rumours of something going to occur in the US.

    If that is true then why did Obama make these remarks about America being safe from ISIS, and an ISIS attack is unlikely, and "we have no specific warnings".

    These are disastrous headlines for Obama, in retrospect

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/262111-obama-us-safe-from-major-isis-attack

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/03/politics/barack-obama-isis/

    Did the FBI not tell the prez they WERE expecting something? Doubt it. So your story is untrue.

    Obama is in deep shit.
    What Obama was doing talking about gun control as a primary concern when that kind of info was in circulation, the cops had found explosives and Homeland Security as an overall agency was taking a keen interest beats me, but he did.
    Obama was going on about gun control because that's his default mode. A more serious terrorist attack on the US is going to make him look like a rabbit caught in the headlights - and if we can see that, the terrorists can see it too.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,323
    felix said:

    If only Mr Brind did not carry so much resentment and baggage from his view of history. I agree with Mr Brind that Cameron made a partisan remark. It was wrong and diminished Cameron.

    But we also have from Mr Brind a set of attacks on Thatcher for winning an election on the back of her decision and hers alone, to win back the Falklands. That was a courageous decision in the face of some around her that wanted to back off and talk to the invaders.

    If we ever need to wonder why Kinnock never became PM "Mr Neil Kinnock re-opened the row over the Falklands war last night when he told a Television South audience that it was a pity soldiers had to die to prove that Mrs Thatcher had guts."

    Is it not also prescient that Mr. Brind completely ignore Ed Miliband's shenanigans barely 2 years ago - maybe he just spent too long working for al -Beeb.
    Ed Miliband interviewed on C4 news just now hailing the increase in Labour's membership while attending the Paris climate talks
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,323

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 5m5 minutes ago
    Update - The FBI says it is officially investigating the #California mass shooting as an act of #terrorism

    Obama is tostada

    It does not look like an ISIS planned attack, just two disgruntled former employees who happened to be Muslim and decided to link a grudge attack to support for ISIS, nonetheless does show US not immune to homegrown terrorism either
    I don't think this is true. It certainly looks like they targeted this work place over a grudge and probably wasn't the target they were planning. Nobody has a bomb making factory in their garage over a workplace grudge. They might not have been directed by ISIS and self started instead, but this isn't just two disgruntled employees go loco.
    Inspiration is not the same as co-ordination
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    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    It is difficult to overstate how damaging the "ISIS" link to San Bernardino might be, for Obama.

    Even the Guardian says it is Obama's "worst political nightmare"



    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/04/san-bernardino-shooting-isis-link-obama-foreign-policy-gun-control

    Expect Ms Clinton to distance herself very hastily from a tainted incumbent, or she will suffer collateral.

    As Obama isn't standing again, it isn't going to really affect him. It isn't like he has much of a legacy to trash anyway. First black president and....dsyfunctional ObamaCare..and...golfed more than Bush?
    He has been a singular disappointment. His greatest achievement was winning, after that it's been downhill.

    And he's now in danger of his epitaph being The Rise of ISIS and Total Mayhem in the MidEast - i.e. the Worst Foreign Policy president in a century, with the possible exception of Dubya Bush.

    I don't think the shooting in California changes any of that. His approach to Syria was always the hope that all the nutters just spend years fighting among themselves. Remember his "red lines", then they were broken and he looked at his watch and went oh shit late for my tee time...then us hostages were beheaded and he looked at his watch and went better not be late for me tee time...
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