The last 12 months have been eye-opening. In situation after situation we've proposed practical and common sense solutions to problems that Europe is facing. But the EU just isn't interested in listening to us. That's fine - but I don't want to be part of a club where we aren't listened to.
I'm increasingly leaning this way. There have been three issues of major EU policy we've been involved with: the migrant crisis, the Greek bailout and the renegotiation.
On the first, we were active early, funding the camps and deploying the Royal Navy, while wanting about the dangers of taking people that made it over as it would just make the situation worse. The EU and Germany vilified us for it, and said we were doing nothing, and did the opposite. When it worked out exactly as we said and they had to u-turn. There was no acknowledgement of our position being right all along.
On the second, after we had to contribute to an early bailout fund, we negotiated very early that these problems were caused by the Eurozone and that only the Eurozone should be paying for bailouts. They agreed in specific terms that this fund would not be used to bailout anyone else again. Then they just decided to override this previous decision unilaterally. When us and Sweden protested, they took a Eurozone group decision on a Tuesday Conference call (that we weren't on, obviously), and we had to just accept it before the vote on Friday as the Eurozone took a joint position which gave them the necessary majority.
That's two very black marks for me out of three. The last one is yet to come in. I'm really, really hoping it will make up for the others. We need protection from the Eurozone, because it's just unacceptable for them to be able to vote anything through on their own. If we don't get protection from that, we shall be forced to leave.
OT. Does anyone have any research into whether the British public as opposed to the politicians are in support of the Russian action in Syria? France is one of the most stridently anti Russian involement countries around if one listens to the news but anecdotally the support for it seems to be total.
Some of this may be Islamaphobia which is very prevalent around here but nontheless all I hear are people who want the Russians to bomb "THEM" to pieces.
'59% of British people support Britain and the US cooperating with Russia in the fight against ISIS in Syria – and support for sending ground troops back into Iraq is increasing'
Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.
June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU
Who is June Sarpong? (That's a serious question, I've never heard of her.)
Ex TV type turned Labour luvvie.
How long until Bono and Eddie Izzard jump in ?
I believe Bono has a position of not getting involved in any political issue other than economic development, as it offends potential allies on that issue. He refused to take a position on the Iraq War despite heavy pressure to do so.
given Bono's tax arrangements this falls under economic development.
Bono is tax resident in Ireland.
For some things.
That makes no sense. You can only be tax resident in one place.
Excellent article, except that I don't think Cameron can afford to become the overt leader of "Remain", because it'll be mid-term and it's likely to have the same dangers as in Scotland - anti-Tories will decide it's a referendum on the Government. He will clearly need to defend his negotiation and campaign for Tory Remain votes, but the campaign needs a figure less central to daily politics.
By the way, apparently Hammond has ruled out standing for the leadership and will endorse Osborne, a significant development - see the sidebar in this:
I suspect that Stuart Rose was thought of as a suitable kind of cross party candidate. The problem with a professional politician (or at least one of the problems) is that they come with a party affiliation which might alienate as many as it attracts; a lot more, obviously, if your name is Nigel Farage.
I am genuinely undecided about this EU nonsense but I fear that the debate is going to do nothing to enlighten me one way or the other. From one side we will have fantasies of 3m unemployed and economic ruin and from the other fantasies of us getting whatever treaties and trade relations we want along with a whole lot of emotional guff.
My suspicion is that life outside the EU would be remarkably similar to life inside it with the EU impinging on my life to a similar extent by the application of EU standards from what would still be our largest single market. In either scenario I suspect I would have to search hard to find a difference and I doubt I could be bothered. A coherent and realistic plan for life outside the EU would probably get my vote but so would a sensible package from Cameron protecting us from EZ dominance. I fear I will not get either.
That's my logic as well, which leads me to "Out"
Economically we're going to do just fine outside the EU.
And we will have control of our own destiny.
The last 12 months have been eye-opening. In situation after situation we've proposed practical and common sense solutions to problems that Europe is facing. But the EU just isn't interested in listening to us. That's fine - but I don't want to be part of a club where we aren't listened to.
If the vote was today I would vote leave but I am still persuadable either way.
I also have real doubts that any middle sized country really has control of its own destiny in the modern world.
The majority of the EU is focused on the problems that have arisen from the Euro and now from immigration. Britain standing on the side lines saying we told you so for both issues is not a great place from which to be listened to, even if we were right.
I think the EZ like to blame at least some of their problems on those casino capitalists based in London. It is hardly surprising that they want to regulate them to some extent and are slow to give them even more control over their financial services. There is a trade off here as there is in most things and it is one that would be a lot more difficult to achieve outside the EU.
I also think that Merkel has made such a fool of herself over the migrant issue that her dominance of the EU in particular and even Germany's in general is likely to be much diminished. Whether that is a good or a bad thing from our point of view is harder to say as we have tended to have more in common with Germany than the Latin countries.
Wasn't it under Stuart Rose's watch that M&S decided to close their flagship store in Paris?
Not a great advertisement surely for the advantages of remaining within the EU.
M&S have several shops in Paris, including selling food. I read that it was someone called Luc Vanderveld who closed stores in Europe when M&S was not making enough money... but happy to be corrected. It's current plans are very expansive worldwide.
I suspect that Stuart Rose was thought of as a suitable kind of cross party candidate. The problem with a professional politician (or at least one of the problems) is that they come with a party affiliation which might alienate as many as it attracts; a lot more, obviously, if your name is Nigel Farage.
I am genuinely undecided about this EU nonsense but I fear that the debate is going to do nothing to enlighten me one way or the other. From one side we will have fantasies of 3m unemployed and economic ruin and from the other fantasies of us getting whatever treaties and trade relations we want along with a whole lot of emotional guff.
My suspicion is that life outside the EU would be remarkably similar to life inside it with the EU impinging on my life to a similar extent by the application of EU standards from what would still be our largest single market. In either scenario I suspect I would have to search hard to find a difference and I doubt I could be bothered. A coherent and realistic plan for life outside the EU would probably get my vote but so would a sensible package from Cameron protecting us from EZ dominance. I fear I will not get either.
That's my logic as well, which leads me to "Out"
Economically we're going to do just fine outside the EU.
And we will have control of our own destiny.
The last 12 months have been eye-opening. In situation after situation we've proposed practical and common sense solutions to problems that Europe is facing. But the EU just isn't interested in listening to us. That's fine - but I don't want to be part of a club where we aren't listened to.
Better to be a good neighbour than a grudging member.
Both sides are going to struggle recruiting advocates the public trusts and can relate to. That's why David is right: it will be the politicians who lead this and who will be arguing the toss. They are also highly adept at staying on message.
It is bizarre that we put so much store by senior business leaders as wise seers of the truth. Most of them really aren't. See their failures to invest in R&D, our dreadful productivity, our poor export performance and so on.
Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.
June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU
" Lord Rose said those who want to leave the EU of "fantasyland" economics and called their claims that Britain would thrive outside "bravado, not patriotism".
He warned that leaving the union would cost every family £3,000 a year"
What is it with the number 3? First it was 3 million jobs, now it's £3k
Large enough to be meaningful.
Small enough to be plausible.
For instance £1K people might say "painful, but I can manage that" and £9K is approx 40% of average income so doesn't sound realistic
with 25 millionish households in the UK the Remains are saying leaving will cost around £72 billion net.or around 5% of GDP. That doesn't look terribly plausible.
Voters don't do big numbers
To a point Charles, each side can get away with one big number, so were back to 3 million jobs versus 3 million immigrants.
Mr. F, member? The EU will soon try and reduce nation states to servitude. Already we have Merkel's short-sighted idiocy inflicting thousands of [under normal circumstances] illegal immigrants upon countries that don't want them, as well as economic dominion over Greece, thanks to the moronic eurozone.
I suspect that Stuart Rose was thought of as a suitable kind of cross party candidate. The problem with a professional politician (or at least one of the problems) is that they come with a party affiliation which might alienate as many as it attracts; a lot more, obviously, if your name is Nigel Farage.
I am genuinely undecided about this EU nonsense but I fear that the debate is going to do nothing to enlighten me one way or the other. From one side we will have fantasies of 3m unemployed and economic ruin and from the other fantasies of us getting whatever treaties and trade relations we want along with a whole lot of emotional guff.
My suspicion is that life outside the EU would be remarkably similar to life inside it with the EU impinging on my life to a similar extent by the application of EU standards from what would still be our largest single market. In either scenario I suspect I would have to search hard to find a difference and I doubt I could be bothered. A coherent and realistic plan for life outside the EU would probably get my vote but so would a sensible package from Cameron protecting us from EZ dominance. I fear I will not get either.
That's my logic as well, which leads me to "Out"
Economically we're going to do just fine outside the EU.
And we will have control of our own destiny.
The last 12 months have been eye-opening. In situation after situation we've proposed practical and common sense solutions to problems that Europe is facing. But the EU just isn't interested in listening to us. That's fine - but I don't want to be part of a club where we aren't listened to.
In fairness, we're in a club with 27 other members, all of whom are fighting for their own national interests. That's in line to become 33 other members, assuming they ever let Turkey in.
However, increasingly that's going to become the EZ countries voting en bloc, with the UK being surrounded by relative minnows. That's just not a good strategic position for the UK. Therefore for me, it's a slam dunk to leave. However, I have to admit that I have no good answer for the mechanics of disengagement. There's going to be some pain.
I suspect that Stuart Rose was thought of as a suitable kind of cross party candidate. The problem with a professional politician (or at least one of the problems) is that they come with a party affiliation which might alienate as many as it attracts; a lot more, obviously, if your name is Nigel Farage.
I am genuinely undecided about this EU nonsense but I fear that the debate is going to do nothing to enlighten me one way or the other. From one side we will have fantasies of 3m unemployed and economic ruin and from the other fantasies of us getting whatever treaties and trade relations we want along with a whole lot of emotional guff.
My suspicion is that life outside the EU would be remarkably similar to life inside it with the EU impinging on my life to a similar extent by the application of EU standards from what would still be our largest single market. In either scenario I suspect I would have to search hard to find a difference and I doubt I could be bothered. A coherent and realistic plan for life outside the EU would probably get my vote but so would a sensible package from Cameron protecting us from EZ dominance. I fear I will not get either.
That's my logic as well, which leads me to "Out"
Economically we're going to do just fine outside the EU.
And we will have control of our own destiny.
The last 12 months have been eye-opening. In situation after situation we've proposed practical and common sense solutions to problems that Europe is facing. But the EU just isn't interested in listening to us. That's fine - but I don't want to be part of a club where we aren't listened to.
Which brings us back to the irreconcilable concept of ever closer union. If they are adopting it and we are not the incompatibility grows.
I agree. The Eurozone has a choice to split up or to integrate more deeply. I think the former is the right choice, but the vested interests will pursue the latter. If we don't want to be part of that we should leave.
Excellent article, except that I don't think Cameron can afford to become the overt leader of "Remain", because it'll be mid-term and it's likely to have the same dangers as in Scotland - anti-Tories will decide it's a referendum on the Government. He will clearly need to defend his negotiation and campaign for Tory Remain votes, but the campaign needs a figure less central to daily politics.
By the way, apparently Hammond has ruled out standing for the leadership and will endorse Osborne, a significant development - see the sidebar in this:
I am voting REMAIN - no matter who leads which group.
Despite all this talk of an "united" Tory Party, fissures are beginning to emerge on the EU.
Is that really surprising considering that this has been the issue that has plagued the Tories since the 70's - when they were, of course, pro-EC.
I thought Corbynite Labour was all about being honest and open about your disagreements? Is it only fissures and splits when it's the Conservatives who have more than one view in the party? To be honest, I find it more scary when there is a uniform mentality of "we must stay in the EU above all else, whatever happens" like there is among the Blairites and the Lib Dems. That seems more like zealous ideology than an objective assessment of the pros and cons.
Excellent article, except that I don't think Cameron can afford to become the overt leader of "Remain", because it'll be mid-term and it's likely to have the same dangers as in Scotland - anti-Tories will decide it's a referendum on the Government. He will clearly need to defend his negotiation and campaign for Tory Remain votes, but the campaign needs a figure less central to daily politics.
By the way, apparently Hammond has ruled out standing for the leadership and will endorse Osborne, a significant development - see the sidebar in this:
DavidL at 10.04 I think your points are valid. More valid than most of the other rubbish spoken. We need to wait til we get something to vote on before jumping to conclusions. What we do know is that leaving the EU will still leave us signing up to the single market and free movement and involve some payments to the EU. Overwhelmingly people will not see any difference to being Out, the EU will still be there passing regulations which we will sign up to.
The British Empire is “gone”, an ally of Angel Merkel has said as he warned the UK can only remain in the “Champions League” of nations by staying in the European Union.
Michael Gahrer, an MEP for the German Chancellor’s CDU party, upped the pressure on Ms Merkel and David Cameron's talks by warning of the impact of Britain leaving the EU.
He said Scotland could go independent and banks could flee overseas if Britain exits Europe and played down the chances of Mr Cameron winning the removal of a pledge for “ever closer union”.
Mr. F, member? The EU will soon try and reduce nation states to servitude. Already we have Merkel's short-sighted idiocy inflicting thousands of [under normal circumstances] illegal immigrants upon countries that don't want them, as well as economic dominion over Greece, thanks to the moronic eurozone.
How much money it costs each household will not make any difference since no household directly pays into the EU. We could equally say that not renewing Trident saves £3000 per household.
What will make a difference is JOBS. People working in places, the vast majority of its output goes into the single market or those dependent on the EU for components.
Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.
June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU
Who is June Sarpong? (That's a serious question, I've never heard of her.)
Ex TV type turned Labour luvvie.
How long until Bono and Eddie Izzard jump in ?
I believe Bono has a position of not getting involved in any political issue other than economic development, as it offends potential allies on that issue. He refused to take a position on the Iraq War despite heavy pressure to do so.
Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.
June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU
Who is June Sarpong? (That's a serious question, I've never heard of her.)
Ex TV type turned Labour luvvie.
How long until Bono and Eddie Izzard jump in ?
I believe Bono has a position of not getting involved in any political issue other than economic development, as it offends potential allies on that issue. He refused to take a position on the Iraq War despite heavy pressure to do so.
given Bono's tax arrangements this falls under economic development.
Bono is tax resident in Ireland.
For some things.
Not many at that and not many that are taxable I bet
The British Empire is “gone”, an ally of Angel Merkel has said as he warned the UK can only remain in the “Champions League” of nations by staying in the European Union.
Michael Gahrer, an MEP for the German Chancellor’s CDU party, upped the pressure on Ms Merkel and David Cameron's talks by warning of the impact of Britain leaving the EU.
He said Scotland could go independent and banks could flee overseas if Britain exits Europe and played down the chances of Mr Cameron winning the removal of a pledge for “ever closer union”.
''The British Empire is “gone”, an ally of Angel Merkel has said as he warned the UK can only remain in the “Champions League” of nations by staying in the European Union.''
Somebody better tell ALL Europeans, all of them, to shut the f8ck up if they want Britain to stay in.
Reading the news today, I reckon all out need is a talented credible and charismatic leader to win.
I am voting REMAIN - no matter who leads which group.
Despite all this talk of an "united" Tory Party, fissures are beginning to emerge on the EU.
Is that really surprising considering that this has been the issue that has plagued the Tories since the 70's - when they were, of course, pro-EC.
I thought Corbynite Labour was all about being honest and open about your disagreements? Is it only fissures and splits when it's the Conservatives who have more than one view in the party? To be honest, I find it more scary when there is a uniform mentality of "we must stay in the EU above all else, whatever happens" like there is among the Blairites and the Lib Dems. That seems more like zealous ideology than an objective assessment of the pros and cons.
The vast majority of the Party is pro-EU. Only Kate Hoey is anti EU. You can have her.
The British Empire is “gone”, an ally of Angel Merkel has said as he warned the UK can only remain in the “Champions League” of nations by staying in the European Union.
Michael Gahrer, an MEP for the German Chancellor’s CDU party, upped the pressure on Ms Merkel and David Cameron's talks by warning of the impact of Britain leaving the EU.
He said Scotland could go independent and banks could flee overseas if Britain exits Europe and played down the chances of Mr Cameron winning the removal of a pledge for “ever closer union”.
We need more interventions like this. Talk about 'tin ear'. What is so terrible about an independent Scotland?
As for threats about the City, that's a re-run of the arguments that we should join the Euro or inward investment would dry up and all the financial institutions would decamp to Frankfurt. Yeah, right.
We can look to Syria, Greece and the Ukraine to see how ineptly the so-called Champions League performs. Why would we continue to tie ourselves to these political pygmies?
"'59% of British people support Britain and the US cooperating with Russia in the fight against ISIS in Syria – and support for sending ground troops back into Iraq is increasing'"
Thanks. All I could find from anywhere was this which at least has some interesting cartoons!
Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.
June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU
" Lord Rose said those who want to leave the EU of "fantasyland" economics and called their claims that Britain would thrive outside "bravado, not patriotism".
He warned that leaving the union would cost every family £3,000 a year"
What is it with the number 3? First it was 3 million jobs, now it's £3k
Large enough to be meaningful.
Small enough to be plausible.
For instance £1K people might say "painful, but I can manage that" and £9K is approx 40% of average income so doesn't sound realistic
with 25 millionish households in the UK the Remains are saying leaving will cost around £72 billion net.or around 5% of GDP. That doesn't look terribly plausible.
Wait, isn't that the SNP's oil revenue projections from last year?
More like the unionist projections, that had us losing more than we made. Looks like they got mixed up on their numbers last year, we were to be £1400 worse off if we left union , but turns out that they really meant if we stayed in the union. Nice to see all those clowns that voted NO getting what they were frightened of happen to them. Hopefully the Tories give them full austerity and crank up the medicine.
David Cameron's four key demands to remain in the EU revealed
'Forcing Brussels to make “an explicit statement” that Britain will be kept out of any move towards a European superstate. This will require an exemption for the UK from the EU’s founding principle of “ever closer union”. An “explicit statement” that the euro is not the official currency of the EU, making clear that Europe is a “multi-currency” union. Ministers want this declaration in order to protect the status of the pound sterling as a legitimate currency that will always exist. A new “red card” system to bring power back from Brussels to Britain. This would give groups of national parliaments the power to stop unwanted directives being handed down and to scrap existing EU laws. A new structure for the EU itself. The block of 28 nations must be reorganised to prevent the nine countries that are not in the eurozone being dominated by the 19 member states that are, with particular protections for the City of London.'
Mr. F, because it's a stupidly constructed monstrosity. I imagine the following will happen: We vote In. The EU tries to integrate further, especially the eurozone. No special protection is given to the UK. We get repeatedly outvoted by QMV due to the critical mass of voting rights the eurozone enjoys. Either we leave later, more painfully, or the eurozone (and perhaps the EU itself) collapses.
The EU will collapse sooner or later, with civil strife, and perhaps war, ensuing. Its foundations are weak because they're based on bureaucratic deception, lack of accountability and lack of democracy. It's an idealist dream with no foundation in reality.
We've already had civil strife in Greece, and, more recently, violent conflict on the borders of Shengen. The huge numbers now living in Germany, having recently been ushered in by Merkel, are already straining resources.
It's madness. Like Honorius being emperor [and worth noting he had the job for decades, despite his weakness].
Why are those who favour LEAVE so sure that after exit the UK can still retain duty-free trade and no VAT at the point of entry with the rest of the EU ?
How much money it costs each household will not make any difference since no household directly pays into the EU. We could equally say that not renewing Trident saves £3000 per household.
What will make a difference is JOBS. People working in places, the vast majority of its output goes into the single market or those dependent on the EU for components.
That's a nonsense argument. Most of our manufacturing jobs have been shifted to Europe while in the EU and no company is going to stop selling components to us if there's profit in it.
From memory you work for a german (machine tool) company, is your company going to stop selling to the UK if we leave ?
David Cameron's four key demands to remain in the EU revealed
'Forcing Brussels to make “an explicit statement” that Britain will be kept out of any move towards a European superstate. This will require an exemption for the UK from the EU’s founding principle of “ever closer union”. An “explicit statement” that the euro is not the official currency of the EU, making clear that Europe is a “multi-currency” union. Ministers want this declaration in order to protect the status of the pound sterling as a legitimate currency that will always exist. A new “red card” system to bring power back from Brussels to Britain. This would give groups of national parliaments the power to stop unwanted directives being handed down and to scrap existing EU laws. A new structure for the EU itself. The block of 28 nations must be reorganised to prevent the nine countries that are not in the eurozone being dominated by the 19 member states that are, with particular protections for the City of London.'
If the vote was today I would vote leave but I am still persuadable either way.
I also have real doubts that any middle sized country really has control of its own destiny in the modern world.
The majority of the EU is focused on the problems that have arisen from the Euro and now from immigration. Britain standing on the side lines saying we told you so for both issues is not a great place from which to be listened to, even if we were right.
I think the EZ like to blame at least some of their problems on those casino capitalists based in London. It is hardly surprising that they want to regulate them to some extent and are slow to give them even more control over their financial services. There is a trade off here as there is in most things and it is one that would be a lot more difficult to achieve outside the EU.
I also think that Merkel has made such a fool of herself over the migrant issue that her dominance of the EU in particular and even Germany's in general is likely to be much diminished. Whether that is a good or a bad thing from our point of view is harder to say as we have tended to have more in common with Germany than the Latin countries.
Don't forget we are the 4th largest economy in the world; we have real clout.
To make up some number:
At the moment the EU get 40% of what it wants in negotiations. 25% of the EU's agenda suits the UK (25% Germany, 25% France, 25% the rest).
Britain leaves and only gets 20% of what it wants.
But, net net, 40%*25% is less attractive than 20%*100%
And, in any event, where the EU's interests are aligned with ours we will be able to make a specific deal
David Cameron's four key demands to remain in the EU revealed
'Forcing Brussels to make “an explicit statement” that Britain will be kept out of any move towards a European superstate. This will require an exemption for the UK from the EU’s founding principle of “ever closer union”. An “explicit statement” that the euro is not the official currency of the EU, making clear that Europe is a “multi-currency” union. Ministers want this declaration in order to protect the status of the pound sterling as a legitimate currency that will always exist. A new “red card” system to bring power back from Brussels to Britain. This would give groups of national parliaments the power to stop unwanted directives being handed down and to scrap existing EU laws. A new structure for the EU itself. The block of 28 nations must be reorganised to prevent the nine countries that are not in the eurozone being dominated by the 19 member states that are, with particular protections for the City of London.'
''Why are those who favour LEAVE so sure that after exit the UK can still retain duty-free trade and no VAT at the point of entry with the rest of the EU ?''
With respect, you are missing the point a bit. The point is not about economics. It is about control. It is about self determination. It is about not having to sweep up another European country's crap.
I suspect people think that the economy will muddle through.
If the vote was today I would vote leave but I am still persuadable either way.
I also have real doubts that any middle sized country really has control of its own destiny in the modern world.
The majority of the EU is focused on the problems that have arisen from the Euro and now from immigration. Britain standing on the side lines saying we told you so for both issues is not a great place from which to be listened to, even if we were right.
I think the EZ like to blame at least some of their problems on those casino capitalists based in London. It is hardly surprising that they want to regulate them to some extent and are slow to give them even more control over their financial services. There is a trade off here as there is in most things and it is one that would be a lot more difficult to achieve outside the EU.
I also think that Merkel has made such a fool of herself over the migrant issue that her dominance of the EU in particular and even Germany's in general is likely to be much diminished. Whether that is a good or a bad thing from our point of view is harder to say as we have tended to have more in common with Germany than the Latin countries.
Don't forget we are the 4th largest economy in the world; we have real clout.
To make up some number:
At the moment the EU get 40% of what it wants in negotiations. 25% of the EU's agenda suits the UK (25% Germany, 25% France, 25% the rest).
Britain leaves and only gets 20% of what it wants.
But, net net, 40%*25% is less attractive than 20%*100%
And, in any event, where the EU's interests are aligned with ours we will be able to make a specific deal
So where do you place USA, China, Japan, Germany ? We are only bigger than France and Brazil because of the exchange rate appreciation of the last 4 years which is slowly reversing itself.
Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.
June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU
" Lord Rose said those who want to leave the EU of "fantasyland" economics and called their claims that Britain would thrive outside "bravado, not patriotism".
He warned that leaving the union would cost every family £3,000 a year"
What is it with the number 3? First it was 3 million jobs, now it's £3k
Large enough to be meaningful.
Small enough to be plausible.
For instance £1K people might say "painful, but I can manage that" and £9K is approx 40% of average income so doesn't sound realistic
with 25 millionish households in the UK the Remains are saying leaving will cost around £72 billion net.or around 5% of GDP. That doesn't look terribly plausible.
Voters don't do big numbers
To a point Charles, each side can get away with one big number, so were back to 3 million jobs versus 3 million immigrants.
I don't think voters focus on the number of zeros.
It's 3x a lot vs. 9x a lot.
And 3x a lot is more plausible sounding.
I'm sure someone has focused grouped this to death
Why are those who favour LEAVE so sure that after exit the UK can still retain duty-free trade and no VAT at the point of entry with the rest of the EU ?
because Germans want to sell us cars and it cuts both ways.
If the vote was today I would vote leave but I am still persuadable either way.
I also have real doubts that any middle sized country really has control of its own destiny in the modern world.
The majority of the EU is focused on the problems that have arisen from the Euro and now from immigration. Britain standing on the side lines saying we told you so for both issues is not a great place from which to be listened to, even if we were right.
I think the EZ like to blame at least some of their problems on those casino capitalists based in London. It is hardly surprising that they want to regulate them to some extent and are slow to give them even more control over their financial services. There is a trade off here as there is in most things and it is one that would be a lot more difficult to achieve outside the EU.
I also think that Merkel has made such a fool of herself over the migrant issue that her dominance of the EU in particular and even Germany's in general is likely to be much diminished. Whether that is a good or a bad thing from our point of view is harder to say as we have tended to have more in common with Germany than the Latin countries.
Don't forget we are the 4th largest economy in the world; we have real clout.
To make up some number:
At the moment the EU get 40% of what it wants in negotiations. 25% of the EU's agenda suits the UK (25% Germany, 25% France, 25% the rest).
Britain leaves and only gets 20% of what it wants.
But, net net, 40%*25% is less attractive than 20%*100%
And, in any event, where the EU's interests are aligned with ours we will be able to make a specific deal
So where do you place USA, China, Japan, Germany ? We are only bigger than France and Brazil because of the exchange rate appreciation of the last 4 years which is slowly reversing itself.
A country with Manufacturing Output still below it's previous peak.
Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.
June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU
" Lord Rose said those who want to leave the EU of "fantasyland" economics and called their claims that Britain would thrive outside "bravado, not patriotism".
He warned that leaving the union would cost every family £3,000 a year"
What is it with the number 3? First it was 3 million jobs, now it's £3k
Large enough to be meaningful.
Small enough to be plausible.
For instance £1K people might say "painful, but I can manage that" and £9K is approx 40% of average income so doesn't sound realistic
with 25 millionish households in the UK the Remains are saying leaving will cost around £72 billion net.or around 5% of GDP. That doesn't look terribly plausible.
Voters don't do big numbers
To a point Charles, each side can get away with one big number, so were back to 3 million jobs versus 3 million immigrants.
I don't think voters focus on the number of zeros.
It's 3x a lot vs. 9x a lot.
And 3x a lot is more plausible sounding.
I'm sure someone has focused grouped this to death
100 billion divided by 33 million is 3000. It helps !
No. The European referendum transcends ordinary politics. It may be worth remembering that the recent election gave the Tories a majority with only about 24 or 25 percent of all registered voters.
But this question asks for the opinion of all voters across party lines, although there will be a correlation between how people vote and their affiliation.
A talented dedicated amateur is what is called for. I can't opine about Rose's former quality.
'No Blacks No Irish No Dogs'. Many of us will not be surprised to know that Enoch Powell lives in the form of the Tory Home Secretary Theresa May.
Congratulations to Andy Burnham for drawing the public's attention to this latest insidious piece of Tory legislation. Just a pity labour are in such disarray they haven't the confidence to put their case more strongly. Theresa May is a throwback to a Tory Party some even believed had changed
Isn't Labour responsible for the current laws requiring employers to check that employees are entitled to live and work in the UK? They certainly maintained them while in office. Presumably they cause casual racism in the employment market and discriminate against immigrants.
If the vote was today I would vote leave but I am still persuadable either way.
I also have real doubts that any middle sized country really has control of its own destiny in the modern world.
The majority of the EU is focused on the problems that have arisen from the Euro and now from immigration. Britain standing on the side lines saying we told you so for both issues is not a great place from which to be listened to, even if we were right.
I think the EZ like to blame at least some of their problems on those casino capitalists based in London. It is hardly surprising that they want to regulate them to some extent and are slow to give them even more control over their financial services. There is a trade off here as there is in most things and it is one that would be a lot more difficult to achieve outside the EU.
I also think that Merkel has made such a fool of herself over the migrant issue that her dominance of the EU in particular and even Germany's in general is likely to be much diminished. Whether that is a good or a bad thing from our point of view is harder to say as we have tended to have more in common with Germany than the Latin countries.
Don't forget we are the 4th largest economy in the world; we have real clout.
To make up some number:
At the moment the EU get 40% of what it wants in negotiations. 25% of the EU's agenda suits the UK (25% Germany, 25% France, 25% the rest).
Britain leaves and only gets 20% of what it wants.
But, net net, 40%*25% is less attractive than 20%*100%
And, in any event, where the EU's interests are aligned with ours we will be able to make a specific deal
4th? Don't think so. USA China Japan Germany next comes us or France depending on which measure you take on which day, although we do seem to be edging ahead of them on most measures.
David Cameron's four key demands to remain in the EU revealed
'Forcing Brussels to make “an explicit statement” that Britain will be kept out of any move towards a European superstate. This will require an exemption for the UK from the EU’s founding principle of “ever closer union”. An “explicit statement” that the euro is not the official currency of the EU, making clear that Europe is a “multi-currency” union. Ministers want this declaration in order to protect the status of the pound sterling as a legitimate currency that will always exist. A new “red card” system to bring power back from Brussels to Britain. This would give groups of national parliaments the power to stop unwanted directives being handed down and to scrap existing EU laws. A new structure for the EU itself. The block of 28 nations must be reorganised to prevent the nine countries that are not in the eurozone being dominated by the 19 member states that are, with particular protections for the City of London.'
Mr. Roger, no research, but I suspect many are supportive of Russia's action in Syria.
The way they are going about attacking the rebels shows that we are just poncing about when it comes to IS.
Why is that coming as a surprise to anybody ? Russia's main strategy is to shore up Assad. They have not hidden that. I am not sure why they would act as USA's lackey. The UK is there to play that role.
The IS is being bombarded by the "coalition" for over a year now. Are you saying that the USA and those heinous Gulf countries whose monetary and material support created IS in the first place are incapable of finishing IS ? That shows real weakness.
It is not the job of Russia to support US foreign policy.
So where do you place USA, China, Japan, Germany ? We are only bigger than France and Brazil because of the exchange rate appreciation of the last 4 years which is slowly reversing itself.
A country with Manufacturing Output still below it's previous peak.
The sterling appreciation of the last few years is following a much bigger depreciation during the Brown years. Our economy is doing much better than the Eurozone's. The Remain campaign will get nowhere if its main argument is that the UK is shit and can't do as well as other non-EU economies.
''Why are those who favour LEAVE so sure that after exit the UK can still retain duty-free trade and no VAT at the point of entry with the rest of the EU ?''
With respect, you are missing the point a bit. The point is not about economics. It is about control. It is about self determination. It is about not having to sweep up another European country's crap.
I suspect people think that the economy will muddle through.
The impact on the UK economy will be marginal, whether we Leave or Remain.
So where do you place USA, China, Japan, Germany ? We are only bigger than France and Brazil because of the exchange rate appreciation of the last 4 years which is slowly reversing itself.
A country with Manufacturing Output still below it's previous peak.
The sterling appreciation of the last few years is following a much bigger depreciation during the Brown years. Our economy is doing much better than the Eurozone's. The Remain campaign will get nowhere if its main argument is that the UK is shit and can't do as well as other non-EU economies.
If the vote was today I would vote leave but I am still persuadable either way.
I also have real doubts that any middle sized country really has control of its own destiny in the modern world.
The majority of the EU is focused on the problems that have arisen from the Euro and now from immigration. Britain standing on the side lines saying we told you so for both issues is not a great place from which to be listened to, even if we were right.
I think the EZ like to blame at least some of their problems on those casino capitalists based in London. It is hardly surprising that they want to regulate them to some extent and are slow to give them even more control over their financial services. There is a trade off here as there is in most things and it is one that would be a lot more difficult to achieve outside the EU.
I also think that Merkel has made such a fool of herself over the migrant issue that her dominance of the EU in particular and even Germany's in general is likely to be much diminished. Whether that is a good or a bad thing from our point of view is harder to say as we have tended to have more in common with Germany than the Latin countries.
Don't forget we are the 4th largest economy in the world; we have real clout.
To make up some number:
At the moment the EU get 40% of what it wants in negotiations. 25% of the EU's agenda suits the UK (25% Germany, 25% France, 25% the rest).
Britain leaves and only gets 20% of what it wants.
But, net net, 40%*25% is less attractive than 20%*100%
And, in any event, where the EU's interests are aligned with ours we will be able to make a specific deal
4th? Don't think so. USA China Japan Germany next comes us or France depending on which measure you take on which day, although we do seem to be edging ahead of them on most measures.
Can we all agree on 'one of the largest economies in the world'? Oh my, what am I thinking, this is the Internet. Let battle commence!
If Out does win, which I very much doubt, it would be interesting to see the impact on the Scottish independence movement. Lots of arguments made for the UK leaving are the same as Scotland leaving the UK (although the situations do have some important differences), and leaving the EU would be a significant enough step for a new independence referendum to be plausible.
Such a prospect could push Scottish unionists to support In, and perhaps have a comparable impact in Northern Ireland.
It is bizarre that we put so much store by senior business leaders as wise seers of the truth. Most of them really aren't. See their failures to invest in R&D, our dreadful productivity, our poor export performance and so on.
But they are very good at enriching themselves and shiftng the consequences of failure onto the shareholders and employees.
And likewise their counterparts in the public sector executive oligarchy.
David Cameron's four key demands to remain in the EU revealed
'Forcing Brussels to make “an explicit statement” that Britain will be kept out of any move towards a European superstate. This will require an exemption for the UK from the EU’s founding principle of “ever closer union”. An “explicit statement” that the euro is not the official currency of the EU, making clear that Europe is a “multi-currency” union. Ministers want this declaration in order to protect the status of the pound sterling as a legitimate currency that will always exist. A new “red card” system to bring power back from Brussels to Britain. This would give groups of national parliaments the power to stop unwanted directives being handed down and to scrap existing EU laws. A new structure for the EU itself. The block of 28 nations must be reorganised to prevent the nine countries that are not in the eurozone being dominated by the 19 member states that are, with particular protections for the City of London.'
''because Germans want to sell us cars and it cuts both ways.''
You can tell that the real fear of the IN campaign is not that a free Britain would be a failure.
It is that a free Britain would be a success.
well you've got to say if the logic of 3 million jobs holds true, then since we run a large deficit with the EU they are at risk of 5 million jobs, probably half of them in Germany as the major exporter.
Why are those who favour LEAVE so sure that after exit the UK can still retain duty-free trade and no VAT at the point of entry with the rest of the EU ?
Because we have a trade deficit with the EU, so it's in their interests to negotiate a free trade agreement.
Not sure why no VAT at the point of entry to the rest of the UK is an advantage for the UK specifically.
'No Blacks No Irish No Dogs'. Many of us will not be surprised to know that Enoch Powell lives in the form of the Tory Home Secretary Theresa May.
Congratulations to Andy Burnham for drawing the public's attention to this latest insidious piece of Tory legislation. Just a pity labour are in such disarray they haven't the confidence to put their case more strongly. Theresa May is a throwback to a Tory Party some even believed had changed
Isn't Labour responsible for the current laws requiring employers to check that employees are entitled to live and work in the UK? They certainly maintained them while in office. Presumably they cause casual racism in the employment market and discriminate against immigrants.
I do recollect that is was Baroness Scotland as AJ that shaped and was responsible for implementation of the laws. Well up Until she had some "issues" with her own cleaner.
If the vote was today I would vote leave but I am still persuadable either way.
I also have real doubts that any middle sized country really has control of its own destiny in the modern world.
The majority of the EU is focused on the problems that have arisen from the Euro and now from immigration. Britain standing on the side lines saying we told you so for both issues is not a great place from which to be listened to, even if we were right.
I think the EZ like to blame at least some of their problems on those casino capitalists based in London. It is hardly surprising that they want to regulate them to some extent and are slow to give them even more control over their financial services. There is a trade off here as there is in most things and it is one that would be a lot more difficult to achieve outside the EU.
I also think that Merkel has made such a fool of herself over the migrant issue that her dominance of the EU in particular and even Germany's in general is likely to be much diminished. Whether that is a good or a bad thing from our point of view is harder to say as we have tended to have more in common with Germany than the Latin countries.
Don't forget we are the 4th largest economy in the world; we have real clout.
To make up some number:
At the moment the EU get 40% of what it wants in negotiations. 25% of the EU's agenda suits the UK (25% Germany, 25% France, 25% the rest).
Britain leaves and only gets 20% of what it wants.
But, net net, 40%*25% is less attractive than 20%*100%
And, in any event, where the EU's interests are aligned with ours we will be able to make a specific deal
So where do you place USA, China, Japan, Germany ? We are only bigger than France and Brazil because of the exchange rate appreciation of the last 4 years which is slowly reversing itself.
David Cameron's four key demands to remain in the EU revealed
'Forcing Brussels to make “an explicit statement” that Britain will be kept out of any move towards a European superstate. This will require an exemption for the UK from the EU’s founding principle of “ever closer union”. An “explicit statement” that the euro is not the official currency of the EU, making clear that Europe is a “multi-currency” union. Ministers want this declaration in order to protect the status of the pound sterling as a legitimate currency that will always exist. A new “red card” system to bring power back from Brussels to Britain. This would give groups of national parliaments the power to stop unwanted directives being handed down and to scrap existing EU laws. A new structure for the EU itself. The block of 28 nations must be reorganised to prevent the nine countries that are not in the eurozone being dominated by the 19 member states that are, with particular protections for the City of London.'
I hope none of PB's American readers will jump to the conclusion that Corbyn was busily hiking the Appalachian Trail, and therefore unable to meet HMQ.
If Out does win, which I very much doubt, it would be interesting to see the impact on the Scottish independence movement. Lots of arguments made for the UK leaving are the same as Scotland leaving the UK (although the situations do have some important differences), and leaving the EU would be a significant enough step for a new independence referendum to be plausible.
Such a prospect could push Scottish unionists to support In, and perhaps have a comparable impact in Northern Ireland.
The difference of course being that the UK is in the Top 10 of world economies, while Scotland is the same size as Yorkshire.
I think very few people are so stupid as to not be able to tell the difference, clearly including - after the referendum - the people of Scotland.
May I remind you that one of the most successful US Presidents of the past decade, Ronald Reagan, started off as a celebrity. While unusual, several high-profile businessmen have also made the transition to politics eg Michael Bloomberg, Silvio Berlusconi etc.
On the IN campaign it already looks like Blair, Brown and Major will be backing In much as they backed No in the indyref campaign. Farage, like Salmond, will be the effective spokesman for the exit campaign
Mr. Taffys, it comes across as asking permission from Brussels for us to be allowed to have the pound.
I have little doubt that if we should elect to remain the pressure to change to the Euro will become massive. In fact that's one of the main demands that will be on the table after the vote along with complete acceptance of the Schengen Agreement. Then we will get to the Tobin tax and many other opt outs........
David Cameron's four key demands to remain in the EU revealed
'Forcing Brussels to make “an explicit statement” that Britain will be kept out of any move towards a European superstate. This will require an exemption for the UK from the EU’s founding principle of “ever closer union”. An “explicit statement” that the euro is not the official currency of the EU, making clear that Europe is a “multi-currency” union. Ministers want this declaration in order to protect the status of the pound sterling as a legitimate currency that will always exist. A new “red card” system to bring power back from Brussels to Britain. This would give groups of national parliaments the power to stop unwanted directives being handed down and to scrap existing EU laws. A new structure for the EU itself. The block of 28 nations must be reorganised to prevent the nine countries that are not in the eurozone being dominated by the 19 member states that are, with particular protections for the City of London.'
Don't forget we are the 4th largest economy in the world; we have real clout.
To make up some number:
At the moment the EU get 40% of what it wants in negotiations. 25% of the EU's agenda suits the UK (25% Germany, 25% France, 25% the rest).
Britain leaves and only gets 20% of what it wants.
But, net net, 40%*25% is less attractive than 20%*100%
And, in any event, where the EU's interests are aligned with ours we will be able to make a specific deal
4th? Don't think so. USA China Japan Germany next comes us or France depending on which measure you take on which day, although we do seem to be edging ahead of them on most measures.
Can we all agree on 'one of the largest economies in the world'? Oh my, what am I thinking, this is the Internet. Let battle commence!
In the next couple of decades it is very likely that Brazil, India and, eventually, Indonesia will pass us based on size of population and higher growth rates. But we are and will remain a significant player in the European scene and an international player in finance and related services thanks to London. Our departure from the EU would be a major reversal of its growth strategy and would, I suspect, make others wonder whether it is all it is cracked up to be.
My concern is that this is so obvious that the Euro fanatics in some of the EU countries would be determined to make life post the EU as uncomfortable as possible. The loss of access through the EU passport system for financial services would be an obvious starting point. I accept we are not a minnow and will not be easily pushed around but we are about 15% of EU GDP and should not overplay our hand or assume we are just going to get what we want.
Its shocking the way right wing journalists like Nick Cohen are attacking Tom Watson in the Murdoch press:
When he hounded a dying man to his grave, Watson sank lower than the News of the World reporters he and Hacked Off once fought. However invasive and prurient their scoops, they were at least true. Unless convincing witnesses come forward, you will not be able to say the same about Watson’s “exposé”....
In all fairness, and on the balance of evidence before us, I would say that Tom Watson’s career deserves to be destroyed right now.
I wonder how assiduously Keith Vaz and his Ctte wish to dig into the murky affair of the Elm Tree Guest House - after all, Vaz was a local politician at the time - but does not recall the affair......
Not a word is put to paper. There are negotiators, countless meetings but not one specific demand. Asking for what you want is definitely banned. And a wishlist can only emerge once everyone agrees to fulfil the wishes. Welcome to the surreal phase of Britain’s EU renegotiation.
Left to crack the riddle in Brussels are a handful of veteran civil servants, well practised over the years in serving mercurial politicians. But even to these bureaucratic magicians, the “British question” is proving especially bewildering.
“How do you start a negotiation when they refuse to make a proposal?” asked one senior official advising a leader at the centre of the talks.
This is all an effort, in the eyes of one senior figure in the British camp, of “challenging partners to think of this as a shared problem”. Suggested fixes from other member states are being welcomed. “This is not the right time, if ever [to put forward a wishlist],” the British negotiator added.
David Cameron's four key demands to remain in the EU revealed
'Forcing Brussels to make “an explicit statement” that Britain will be kept out of any move towards a European superstate. This will require an exemption for the UK from the EU’s founding principle of “ever closer union”. An “explicit statement” that the euro is not the official currency of the EU, making clear that Europe is a “multi-currency” union. Ministers want this declaration in order to protect the status of the pound sterling as a legitimate currency that will always exist. A new “red card” system to bring power back from Brussels to Britain. This would give groups of national parliaments the power to stop unwanted directives being handed down and to scrap existing EU laws. A new structure for the EU itself. The block of 28 nations must be reorganised to prevent the nine countries that are not in the eurozone being dominated by the 19 member states that are, with particular protections for the City of London.'
If all 4 demands are not negotiable I think the response [ politely ] will be a two-finger salute. Britain is not that important !
Excellent news for Scotland. We will stay in thanks.
From Cameron's point of view the Scots are the gift that keeps on giving; 1. Hold a referendum and pin the outcome on SLAB, which 2. Ensures SLAB's demise at the General Election and the rise of SNP dominance, which 3. Assures a 'Remain' majority in Scotland to give a referendum victory in 2017, which 4. Makes Cameron the most successful modern politician in terms of plebiscites/elections won - better than Maggie and Blair....
I hope none of PB's American readers will jump to the conclusion that Corbyn was busily hiking the Appalachian Trail, and therefore unable to meet HMQ.
F1: odd. Adam Cooper, whose tweets I often see, has said Franz Tost (Toro Rosso boss) indicated Sainz's crash was 46g. But on Inside F1, Tost said Sainz had braked, and so the impact was only 5g.
If Out does win, which I very much doubt, it would be interesting to see the impact on the Scottish independence movement. Lots of arguments made for the UK leaving are the same as Scotland leaving the UK (although the situations do have some important differences), and leaving the EU would be a significant enough step for a new independence referendum to be plausible.
Such a prospect could push Scottish unionists to support In, and perhaps have a comparable impact in Northern Ireland.
The difference of course being that the UK is in the Top 10 of world economies, while Scotland is the same size as Yorkshire.
I think very few people are so stupid as to not be able to tell the difference, clearly including - after the referendum - the people of Scotland.
Except most Scots seem happy to be a part of the EU, even if a more integrated Europe, unlike the rest of the UK who want a trade relationship but not much else. An Out vote will inevitably lead to Scotland's exit from the UK too, however that would have been the choice of the rest of the UK
So where do you place USA, China, Japan, Germany ? We are only bigger than France and Brazil because of the exchange rate appreciation of the last 4 years which is slowly reversing itself.
A country with Manufacturing Output still below it's previous peak.
The sterling appreciation of the last few years is following a much bigger depreciation during the Brown years. Our economy is doing much better than the Eurozone's. The Remain campaign will get nowhere if its main argument is that the UK is shit and can't do as well as other non-EU economies.
We will see. Tell that to the worker at Nissan !
Correct, but already we see lots of daft arguments being set up about the In campaign denigrating Britain. We do well out of inward investment into the UK. I have to say if I was younger I would be a bit worried about my future being in the hands of some of the logic being spouted here.
David Cameron's four key demands to remain in the EU revealed
'Forcing Brussels to make “an explicit statement” that Britain will be kept out of any move towards a European superstate. This will require an exemption for the UK from the EU’s founding principle of “ever closer union”. An “explicit statement” that the euro is not the official currency of the EU, making clear that Europe is a “multi-currency” union. Ministers want this declaration in order to protect the status of the pound sterling as a legitimate currency that will always exist. A new “red card” system to bring power back from Brussels to Britain. This would give groups of national parliaments the power to stop unwanted directives being handed down and to scrap existing EU laws. A new structure for the EU itself. The block of 28 nations must be reorganised to prevent the nine countries that are not in the eurozone being dominated by the 19 member states that are, with particular protections for the City of London.'
Comments
On the first, we were active early, funding the camps and deploying the Royal Navy, while wanting about the dangers of taking people that made it over as it would just make the situation worse. The EU and Germany vilified us for it, and said we were doing nothing, and did the opposite. When it worked out exactly as we said and they had to u-turn. There was no acknowledgement of our position being right all along.
On the second, after we had to contribute to an early bailout fund, we negotiated very early that these problems were caused by the Eurozone and that only the Eurozone should be paying for bailouts. They agreed in specific terms that this fund would not be used to bailout anyone else again. Then they just decided to override this previous decision unilaterally. When us and Sweden protested, they took a Eurozone group decision on a Tuesday Conference call (that we weren't on, obviously), and we had to just accept it before the vote on Friday as the Eurozone took a joint position which gave them the necessary majority.
That's two very black marks for me out of three. The last one is yet to come in. I'm really, really hoping it will make up for the others. We need protection from the Eurozone, because it's just unacceptable for them to be able to vote anything through on their own. If we don't get protection from that, we shall be forced to leave.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/10/01/cooperation-russia-syria/
By the way, apparently Hammond has ruled out standing for the leadership and will endorse Osborne, a significant development - see the sidebar in this:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3267943/Tory-women-blow-whistle-sex-pest-election-guru-investigation-bullying-aid-committed-suicide.html
I also have real doubts that any middle sized country really has control of its own destiny in the modern world.
The majority of the EU is focused on the problems that have arisen from the Euro and now from immigration. Britain standing on the side lines saying we told you so for both issues is not a great place from which to be listened to, even if we were right.
I think the EZ like to blame at least some of their problems on those casino capitalists based in London. It is hardly surprising that they want to regulate them to some extent and are slow to give them even more control over their financial services. There is a trade off here as there is in most things and it is one that would be a lot more difficult to achieve outside the EU.
I also think that Merkel has made such a fool of herself over the migrant issue that her dominance of the EU in particular and even Germany's in general is likely to be much diminished. Whether that is a good or a bad thing from our point of view is harder to say as we have tended to have more in common with Germany than the Latin countries.
I read that it was someone called Luc Vanderveld who closed stores in Europe when M&S was not making enough money... but happy to be corrected. It's current plans are very expansive worldwide.
It is bizarre that we put so much store by senior business leaders as wise seers of the truth. Most of them really aren't. See their failures to invest in R&D, our dreadful productivity, our poor export performance and so on.
"I'm afraid so, there will be more heat than light in the next 2 years."
That's rather cynical
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/2453204/Bent-banana-and-curved-cucumber-rules-dropped-by-EU.html
Despite all this talk of an "united" Tory Party, fissures are beginning to emerge on the EU.
Is that really surprising considering that this has been the issue that has plagued the Tories since the 70's - when they were, of course, pro-EC.
You're on the side of Mandelson and Blair and Tory big business.
Remove that Che Guevara poster from your bedroom forthwith !
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34495346
Must admit, I'm surprised by this.
However, increasingly that's going to become the EZ countries voting en bloc, with the UK being surrounded by relative minnows. That's just not a good strategic position for the UK. Therefore for me, it's a slam dunk to leave. However, I have to admit that I have no good answer for the mechanics of disengagement. There's going to be some pain.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-10-11/loose-woman-joins-three-former-prime-ministers-to-support-pro-europe-campaign/
ITV News must read PB.
So Z list celebrity trumps Major, Blair & Brown...
I think your points are valid. More valid than most of the other rubbish spoken.
We need to wait til we get something to vote on before jumping to conclusions.
What we do know is that leaving the EU will still leave us signing up to the single market and free movement and involve some payments to the EU. Overwhelmingly people will not see any difference to being Out, the EU will still be there passing regulations which we will sign up to.
Michael Gahrer, an MEP for the German Chancellor’s CDU party, upped the pressure on Ms Merkel and David Cameron's talks by warning of the impact of Britain leaving the EU.
He said Scotland could go independent and banks could flee overseas if Britain exits Europe and played down the chances of Mr Cameron winning the removal of a pledge for “ever closer union”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11922207/British-Empire-is-gone-Angela-Merkel-ally-says-as-he-urges-In-vote-ahead-of-EU-crunch-talks.html
What will make a difference is JOBS. People working in places, the vast majority of its output goes into the single market or those dependent on the EU for components.
Maybe if the germans could just accept theirs has gone too we'd all be a lot happier.
Somebody better tell ALL Europeans, all of them, to shut the f8ck up if they want Britain to stay in.
Reading the news today, I reckon all out need is a talented credible and charismatic leader to win.
As for threats about the City, that's a re-run of the arguments that we should join the Euro or inward investment would dry up and all the financial institutions would decamp to Frankfurt. Yeah, right.
We can look to Syria, Greece and the Ukraine to see how ineptly the so-called Champions League performs. Why would we continue to tie ourselves to these political pygmies?
"'59% of British people support Britain and the US cooperating with Russia in the fight against ISIS in Syria – and support for sending ground troops back into Iraq is increasing'"
Thanks. All I could find from anywhere was this which at least has some interesting cartoons!
http://sputniknews.com/
David Cameron's four key demands to remain in the EU revealed
'Forcing Brussels to make “an explicit statement” that Britain will be kept out of any move towards a European superstate. This will require an exemption for the UK from the EU’s founding principle of “ever closer union”.
An “explicit statement” that the euro is not the official currency of the EU, making clear that Europe is a “multi-currency” union. Ministers want this declaration in order to protect the status of the pound sterling as a legitimate currency that will always exist.
A new “red card” system to bring power back from Brussels to Britain. This would give groups of national parliaments the power to stop unwanted directives being handed down and to scrap existing EU laws.
A new structure for the EU itself. The block of 28 nations must be reorganised to prevent the nine countries that are not in the eurozone being dominated by the 19 member states that are, with particular protections for the City of London.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11924603/David-Camerons-four-key-demands-to-remain-in-the-EU-revealed.html?WT.mc_id=e_DM54522&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FAM_New&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FAM_New_2015_10_11&utm_campaign=DM54522
We vote In.
The EU tries to integrate further, especially the eurozone.
No special protection is given to the UK.
We get repeatedly outvoted by QMV due to the critical mass of voting rights the eurozone enjoys.
Either we leave later, more painfully, or the eurozone (and perhaps the EU itself) collapses.
The EU will collapse sooner or later, with civil strife, and perhaps war, ensuing. Its foundations are weak because they're based on bureaucratic deception, lack of accountability and lack of democracy. It's an idealist dream with no foundation in reality.
We've already had civil strife in Greece, and, more recently, violent conflict on the borders of Shengen. The huge numbers now living in Germany, having recently been ushered in by Merkel, are already straining resources.
It's madness. Like Honorius being emperor [and worth noting he had the job for decades, despite his weakness].
"You're on the side of Mandelson and Blair and Tory big business."
Was it the bent banana or crooked cucumber which gave me away?
From memory you work for a german (machine tool) company, is your company going to stop selling to the UK if we leave ?
Dave's triumphant conference speech is suddenly starting to look rather dog eared.
To make up some number:
At the moment the EU get 40% of what it wants in negotiations. 25% of the EU's agenda suits the UK (25% Germany, 25% France, 25% the rest).
Britain leaves and only gets 20% of what it wants.
But, net net, 40%*25% is less attractive than 20%*100%
And, in any event, where the EU's interests are aligned with ours we will be able to make a specific deal
With respect, you are missing the point a bit. The point is not about economics. It is about control. It is about self determination. It is about not having to sweep up another European country's crap.
I suspect people think that the economy will muddle through.
It's 3x a lot vs. 9x a lot.
And 3x a lot is more plausible sounding.
I'm sure someone has focused grouped this to death
Not much concern about Brexit there.
But this question asks for the opinion of all voters across party lines, although there will be a correlation between how people vote and their affiliation.
A talented dedicated amateur is what is called for. I can't opine about Rose's former quality.
Definition:
Analysing the expected outcome of the European-Referendum (held under English-Law, 2017):
Definition a): Definition b): :bets-will-be-forthcoming-FATJUGS:
You can tell that the real fear of the IN campaign is not that a free Britain would be a failure.
It is that a free Britain would be a success.
USA
China
Japan
Germany
next comes us or France depending on which measure you take on which day, although we do seem to be edging ahead of them on most measures.
The IS is being bombarded by the "coalition" for over a year now. Are you saying that the USA and those heinous Gulf countries whose monetary and material support created IS in the first place are incapable of finishing IS ? That shows real weakness.
It is not the job of Russia to support US foreign policy.
The sterling appreciation of the last few years is following a much bigger depreciation during the Brown years. Our economy is doing much better than the Eurozone's. The Remain campaign will get nowhere if its main argument is that the UK is shit and can't do as well as other non-EU economies.
Such a prospect could push Scottish unionists to support In, and perhaps have a comparable impact in Northern Ireland.
And likewise their counterparts in the public sector executive oligarchy.
The utterly craven, spineless tone of this language is already getting ripped to shreds in social media.
Not sure why no VAT at the point of entry to the rest of the UK is an advantage for the UK specifically.
1 and 2 mean very little.
http://news.sky.com/story/1567524/corbyn-missed-privy-council-to-go-on-holiday
Will walking The West Highland Way be code for Corbyn's next absence?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22470691
I think very few people are so stupid as to not be able to tell the difference, clearly including - after the referendum - the people of Scotland.
Indeed. It reveals how the attitude to Europe of those doing the negotiating is a world away from a significant part of the public.
They are about to be very rudely awakened.
On the IN campaign it already looks like Blair, Brown and Major will be backing In much as they backed No in the indyref campaign. Farage, like Salmond, will be the effective spokesman for the exit campaign
Edited extra bit: Mr. Moses, if we vote In it will be read by EU-fanatics here, and other EU nations, as being a Yes to full steam ahead.
My concern is that this is so obvious that the Euro fanatics in some of the EU countries would be determined to make life post the EU as uncomfortable as possible. The loss of access through the EU passport system for financial services would be an obvious starting point. I accept we are not a minnow and will not be easily pushed around but we are about 15% of EU GDP and should not overplay our hand or assume we are just going to get what we want.
When he hounded a dying man to his grave, Watson sank lower than the News of the World reporters he and Hacked Off once fought. However invasive and prurient their scoops, they were at least true. Unless convincing witnesses come forward, you will not be able to say the same about Watson’s “exposé”....
In all fairness, and on the balance of evidence before us, I would say that Tom Watson’s career deserves to be destroyed right now.
I wonder how assiduously Keith Vaz and his Ctte wish to dig into the murky affair of the Elm Tree Guest House - after all, Vaz was a local politician at the time - but does not recall the affair......
Just had my next Email-A-Friend message from Jeremy asking for questions with which to Skewer The Toff.
Is PQE still the policy?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a5667fd8-6e9b-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#ixzz3oFeOQfvB
Not a word is put to paper. There are negotiators, countless meetings but not one specific demand. Asking for what you want is definitely banned. And a wishlist can only emerge once everyone agrees to fulfil the wishes. Welcome to the surreal phase of Britain’s EU renegotiation.
Left to crack the riddle in Brussels are a handful of veteran civil servants, well practised over the years in serving mercurial politicians. But even to these bureaucratic magicians, the “British question” is proving especially bewildering.
“How do you start a negotiation when they refuse to make a proposal?” asked one senior official advising a leader at the centre of the talks.
This is all an effort, in the eyes of one senior figure in the British camp, of “challenging partners to think of this as a shared problem”. Suggested fixes from other member states are being welcomed. “This is not the right time, if ever [to put forward a wishlist],” the British negotiator added.
Again, that is not the point. Sterling allows us CONTROL. It allows us to set our own monetary policy.
1. Hold a referendum and pin the outcome on SLAB, which
2. Ensures SLAB's demise at the General Election and the rise of SNP dominance, which
3. Assures a 'Remain' majority in Scotland to give a referendum victory in 2017, which
4. Makes Cameron the most successful modern politician in terms of plebiscites/elections won - better than Maggie and Blair....
I'm sure he's very grateful to you!
Anyway, I'm off now. Race starts at midday.
This is turning into a f8ck up for Dave. He doesn;t only look supine. He looks incompetent.
I have to say if I was younger I would be a bit worried about my future being in the hands of some of the logic being spouted here.
Isn't Holland already having a referenedum on some aspect of the EU treaty?