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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rose might front Remain but he won’t lead it
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rose might front Remain but he won’t lead it
Politicians are not popular; not now and rarely ever. The bickering, the pettiness, the game-playing, the dirt thrown – much of which sticks to some extent, including to the hands throwing it – the actual policies proposed or implemented, the negative characteristics of those involved: none raises the esteem in which our leaders are held.
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I don't believe it's wishful thinking on my part to say that the momentum is entirely with us, it seems there is a chance that the PM will recommend LEAVE which although highly unlikely was recently unimaginable.
The only argument STAY has is "uncertainty" which is a very negative message and "safety", people like Mandelson will argue that if we leave war will break across Europe the following day, which is ridiculous of course.
The only thing that can stop us now is infighting across the campaign groups but I don't think that will happen, each group will appeal to different parts of the electorate, I think Nigel Farage's influence will diminish which is neither here nor there as the 4m kipper votes are in the bag.
I get why politicians appeal to business for support, but in this case caution may be advised - especially for the In side. A friend of mine runs a metal fabrication business that employs four people - he'll be voting to Out. The In campaign needs to be careful to not get exclusively the support of Big Business and leave itself open to accusations of caring only for a readily available supply of cheap labour.
The latter tends to win. The Tories love it.
Inevitably, whether we vote to remain in or to leave, his own position will be greatly weakened and he will feel totally demoralised. The Tories will lose much of their support, forcing him to remain in office. Labour on the other hand will feel, against all the odds, that they have a chance of winning in 2020 if only they can bring themselves to ditch Corbyn which they finally bring themselves to bring about in late 2018 (or more probably he decides to quit ... say on the grounds of ill health or whatever), to be replaced by that all things to all men candidate, Hilary Benn who proceeds then to become Prime Minister in May 2020 and I win my 949/1 punt with Betfair, the greatest bet ever placed in the entire history of PoliticalBetting.com and I am triumphantly carried aloft through the streets of Bedford.
Well ...... one can but dream!
Leave needs an answer to "what comes next?" The likelihood of a consensus in the Leave camp on that is practically nil.
Congratulations to Andy Burnham for drawing the public's attention to this latest insidious piece of Tory legislation. Just a pity labour are in such disarray they haven't the confidence to put their case more strongly. Theresa May is a throwback to a Tory Party some even believed had changed
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/right-to-rent-scheme-risks-discriminating-against-immigrants-warns-andy-burnham-a6689311.htm
Not a great advertisement surely for the advantages of remaining within the EU.
However, whoever did, it’s vitally important that they get on with it and get a decent team together. At the moment OUT is making most, if not all the noise, and a lot more local, on the ground, effort is needed to make sure we don’t go back to the 50’s.
As tig86 points out, a vote to sta in means a vote to proceed with the Great European Parnership. When one thinks of te wars that have been fought on our continent, the idea that we can all work together is an ideal, and a rea, and very positive,l change in the European mindset. For the leaders anyway.
I just see difficulties and conflict at every step. The members are marching along to harmonise taxes, social policy, fiscal policy, medical policy etc and this member is going off in a solo direction. One maverick in a club is not going to work without stresses, and if you don't believe and are not committed why be in the club?
F1: pre-race piece up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/russia-pre-race.html
Sainz is out of hospital and wants to race. Remains to be seen whether he will or not.
The case for QUIT in two words: Stuart Rose.
Edited extra bit: Mascara Man plays the race card:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34498836
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/campaign-to-stay-in-europe-wrapped-in-union-jack
If they'd wanted a Tory surely someone like Heseltine would have been a better choice. A respected elder statesman and one with the overwhelming gratitude of the country for ridding it of our worst nightmare.
He has a very large stock of the filthiest limericks imaginable...
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/10/02/why-right-wing-so-righteous/
"They can also call on big figures from across the mainstream parties – Michael Heseltine, Tony Blair, Nick Clegg among them – to put their case."
I would think that bunch would hand most swing voters to Leave.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/campaign-to-stay-in-europe-wrapped-in-union-jack
Providing that you can convincingly demonstrate it is an improvement on the status quo
Tories don't believe in permanent revolution
I spend more time queuing at toll booths than I ever did at border crossings
As we saw with painful clarity in Scotland, cold hard facts may win you the referendum, but a complete lack of passion will lose you the wider war. The 'No' campaign almost made it sound like Scotland couldn't cope on its own, and people began to see them as traitors. The 'Yes' campaign's claims may have had all the credibility of one of Jeffrey Archer's fictional works (or his court statements) but there was no doubting their commitment to Scotland and the Scottish people. That is how Alistair Darling won the debate and the referendum late last year, and saw the Liberal Democrats and Labour forfeit 50 of their 52 seats in Scotland this year. They made the union seem necessary, but not something actually loveable (if anything, something to be actively hated while used for personal gain) - a very great mistake.
Could we see the same thing happen over Europe? Possibly - but if so with the example of Scotland, and to a lesser extent Corbyn's win, the 'Stay' campaign will have no excuse. They need to appeal to emotion as well as reason if they want to win - they need to make people feel good about themselves, and feel that Europe is a force for good that we all want, really want, to be part of. This is actually quite difficult for me to admit, because I am a great believer in human reason, but clearly reason in the age of social media is no longer enough on its own.
And to come back to the main point, Rose is not the man to do that for them. While his gravitas and business experience and links with the Conservatives are all useful, he has the charisma of a weighing machine and will certainly not fire people up with enthusiasm. They need a big hitter, somebody with real charm and appeal, to lead their campaign. The snag is, with Blair fundamentally discredited I don't know who it could be. Clarke would perhaps be the nearest, but he's a bit old.
EDIT - just a thought, but the man I would at least have tried to get, on reflection, is William Hague. He can't be accused of being unthinkingly pro-EU although he has drifted towards Europhilia over the years, he's a big name, a very effective speaker and although he wasn't a successful party leader he has the cachet of that and being a long-serving Foreign Secretary behind him. He would have been a much better man to be cheerleader for Europe - his past, apart from anything else, would have wrecked many of the 'Out' campaign's attack lines before they were even deployed.
It's difficult to imagine any circumstances in which Jeremy Corbyn or his acolytes would have endorsed the candidature of Lord Rose.
Big Tobacco used EU rules to delay plain packaging
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/11/tobacco-eu-delay
Stories like this will make it harder for an orgnaisation headed by a big business guy to click with the public.
If they put a positive case - that I (for example) and for that matter hundreds of other people benefitted from having a very hard-working and honest plumber from Lodz in my hometown after all the British plumbers had moved to more profitable areas, or that while creeping loss of veto is a worry, while we are in the EU we can still force changes to the rules to make them better for Britain (as Norway, for example, cannot, even though most EU decisions are ultimately binding on it as well) that would be far more helpful. That wouldn't convert diehard Eurosceptics, but it would encourage the swing voters to feel happier about the EU.
I worry that what we'll have from a campaign led by the likes of Rose is a reluctant endorsement of the EU and a huge residual bitterness, much as there is in Scotland now.
(PS - I am still undecided as to how I will vote, and have been tending to Leave. However, I expect Yes to win, and I want it therefore to be a victory that doesn't sour British politics and society for 40 years to come.)
June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU
I do wonder whether Rose's appointment is simply to allow someone to make the running during the negotiations when the PM can't commit to either side, for tactical reasons.
However, how long will the Comments remain open for on Nick Cohen's piece on Tom Watson's failings.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/deserved-downfall-tom-watson-leon-brittan
On topic the PM can't stand aside from this like he did in SindyRef - either he's got a deal to sell, or he's failed and should be leading leave.
Rose, as you say, may be the stop-gap for Cameron - but Rose won't build sufficient momentum for staying in, so the 'Stay' campaign might have to deploy Cameron too early, dividing the government and leaving the country without strong leadership for a while.
Incidentally, off-topic but I did find this about the relevance and sophisticated campaigning techniques of the current Labour party quite funny:
http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/spittle-is-the-only-thing-labour-has-left/
He warned that leaving the union would cost every family £3,000 a year"
What is it with the number 3?
First it was 3 million jobs, now it's £3k
Unfortunately, the department briefly and memorably named the department of Productivity, ENergy and InduStry didn't...
I am genuinely undecided about this EU nonsense but I fear that the debate is going to do nothing to enlighten me one way or the other. From one side we will have fantasies of 3m unemployed and economic ruin and from the other fantasies of us getting whatever treaties and trade relations we want along with a whole lot of emotional guff.
My suspicion is that life outside the EU would be remarkably similar to life inside it with the EU impinging on my life to a similar extent by the application of EU standards from what would still be our largest single market. In either scenario I suspect I would have to search hard to find a difference and I doubt I could be bothered. A coherent and realistic plan for life outside the EU would probably get my vote but so would a sensible package from Cameron protecting us from EZ dominance. I fear I will not get either.
If those of us on the fence are going to be persuaded we want to hear a positive argument for the EU, including how its deficiencies will be addressed.
Small enough to be plausible.
For instance £1K people might say "painful, but I can manage that" and £9K is approx 40% of average income so doesn't sound realistic
Then they go and pick a man from retail. Rose is talented, but how long before people ask what the share of the workforce of M&S, Topshop, Argos etc is British?
Economically we're going to do just fine outside the EU.
And we will have control of our own destiny.
The last 12 months have been eye-opening. In situation after situation we've proposed practical and common sense solutions to problems that Europe is facing. But the EU just isn't interested in listening to us. That's fine - but I don't want to be part of a club where we aren't listened to.
Minor personality on Children's TV about 2-3 decades ago?
She revolutionised political blogging with a site called Politics and the City which was pink and full of dull witted celebs whose opinions we all cared about. It still dominates the media which is why we have all heard of her.
You will probably see her as a guest judge on Episode 28 of Viva's version of bake off.
The EU can do some good things e.g roaming fees.
It's the direction of travel that puts me in the leave camp.
Some of this may be Islamaphobia which is very prevalent around here but nontheless all I hear are people who want the Russians to bomb "THEM" to pieces.
With a housing shortage, voters are not going to be impressed with the idea that it is ok for people will no right to live in the UK having unfettered access to accommodation.
Another fail for Burnham.