Doesn't matter what right wing people think of Corbyn as long as enough people vote for labour. And the polls are creeping up already, despite the turnout adjustments,
Until proved in the field against real elections, i would take any polling still with a pinch of salt.
It was wall to wall in the Mail online for 3 days - I felt it was complete overkill for not much content. It put me off visiting their site as it shoved more entertaining bread/butter stuff out.
Sorry missed the previous thread - I know it's not a scientific survey but there have lots of copies of the Daily Mail left on the shelves over the last few days. I think this tawdry book is going to sink without trace. I would love the know the number of cancelled orders for it. Ashcroft's tweet about the proceeds going to charity was a bit of a give away. Even his friend, Tim Montgomerie, thinks Ashcroft will be more damaged by this.
Looks like the Labour Party Conference is going to knock everything else off the screens next week, given Corbyn's comments about welfare, HS2 and Trident. The polls are going to be more interesting 'after' the conference.
You forgot to add: the conference may back mandatory re-selection of MPs..
At that point, I suspect the real fun will start.
"Those whom the gods will destroy, they first make mad"...seems apposite.
And also there's Trident and ending the benefit cap. Perfect storm which in any normal party would be enough for a swift rethink and removal.
Other "normal" parties have elected IDS - and then fired him ... and Farage - who resigned - and then resurrected himself...
So such behaviour is far from uncommon...
You miss the point - I don't think Labour will get rid. They'll be bolstered by the Mori voter intention poll. They'd be wrong - but there you are.
Once again not much movement, following the readjustment post GE. Dull. I want Tories on 50, Labour on 20, and then the reverse the next week, is that too much to ask?
It was wall to wall in the Mail online for 3 days - I felt it was complete overkill for not much content. It put me off visiting their site as it shoved more entertaining bread/butter stuff out.
Sorry missed the previous thread - I know it's not a scientific survey but there have lots of copies of the Daily Mail left on the shelves over the last few days. I think this tawdry book is going to sink without trace. I would love the know the number of cancelled orders for it. Ashcroft's tweet about the proceeds going to charity was a bit of a give away. Even his friend, Tim Montgomerie, thinks Ashcroft will be more damaged by this.
Looks like the Labour Party Conference is going to knock everything else off the screens next week, given Corbyn's comments about welfare, HS2 and Trident. The polls are going to be more interesting 'after' the conference.
You forgot to add: the conference may back mandatory re-selection of MPs..
At that point, I suspect the real fun will start.
"Those whom the gods will destroy, they first make mad"...seems apposite.
And also there's Trident and ending the benefit cap. Perfect storm which in any normal party would be enough for a swift rethink and removal.
Other "normal" parties have elected IDS - and then fired him ... and Farage - who resigned - and then resurrected himself...
So such behaviour is far from uncommon...
You miss the point - I don't think Labour will get rid. They'll be bolstered by the Mori voter intention poll. They'd be wrong - but there you are.
Those numbers look a bit out of whack to me due to the fact that the Greens have lost half their votes and are still on their GE score. Effectively if you add together Lab+LD+Green then this combined total is 4% higher than the GE. I also don't buy that UKIP has lost nearly half its vote while the migrant crisis is in the news every day.
Hmmm... The Farage hokey-cokey reflected extremely badly on the party and caused lasting damage. It's one thing saying you're not keen on foreigners coming here, quite another to appear incompetent/incapable when it comes to actually doing anything about it. Also worth remembering that they somehow managed to reduce their seats at the last GE - that impotence will be fresh in the minds of many of those who were tempted to vote Kipper back in May.
This poll also tells you swinehead revisited doesn't matter.
WHAT???!!!!
You mean this poll was fielded after Cameron's reputation was 'destroyed', rendered the 'laughing stock of Europe' and if he didn't sue 'would be proof of guilt'?
I'm shocked, I tell you, shocked!
I'm shocked Dave is still PM. I mean Coulson, Pastygate, Going to Morrisons, Chickening out of the debates were all career enders
You forgot 'riding a horse' and 'leaving a kid in a pub'.......
And refusing to debate with Salmond. He'll rue the day.
Doesn't matter what right wing people think of Corbyn as long as enough people vote for labour. And the polls are creeping up already, despite the turnout adjustments,
Until proved in the field against real elections, i would take any polling still with a pinch of salt.
Actually it does matter because he is going to need some of their votes.
As Chinese companies are invited to get involved with British high-speed rail projects, British railway companies win contracts on American high-speed rail projects.
Network Rail? They can't even get the existing lines into Waterloo running properly.
The Yanks are dooooooomed.
Upper deck of the re-vamped Birmingham New Street station opened today - "Grand Central" shopping centre. Unfortunately, the down escalators onto the concourse level weren't working!
I bet the platform level is still a dungeon.
Yep, and one that apparently significantly hampers service patterns because they cannot expand.
Off to Berlin next week. Interesting to see what Hauptbahnhof is like.
Corbyn actually comes out quite well now compared with Ed M in March 2015 (37% 'Like' vs 30% for Ed).
Also a surprising (to me at least) boost since March 2015 for Cameron personally and for the Conservatives: 41% 'like' the Conservatives now, compared with 32% in March. I'm not sure why that would have changed so much over that period.
Note that the Labour brand advantage has gone, in this survey at least.
34% is quite a good figure for Labour, given the results of the supplementary questions. But, I suspect it's their ceiling.
7% for UKIP is quite a bit lower than the 13-16% figure that the other pollsters show. The combined right wing score of 46% is also well below the 50-55% that the others show.
Running those voting intention numbers through Electoral Calculus produces the following outcome:
CON 321 LAB 243 LIB 8 UKIP 0 Green 1 SNP 56 PlaidC 3 N.Ire 18
Old boundaries.....
Well yes, but in the absence of any new ones I can't magic up anything else. It gives a general sense.
Personally I would place far more reliance on the leadership ratings for the while. With just under five years to the next election, voting intention is more an expression of mood rather than anything to be taken too seriously.
Running those voting intention numbers through Electoral Calculus produces the following outcome:
CON 321 LAB 243 LIB 8 UKIP 0 Green 1 SNP 56 PlaidC 3 N.Ire 18
Old boundaries.....
Personally I would place far more reliance on the leadership ratings for the while. With just under five years to the next election, voting intention is more an expression of mood rather than anything to be taken too seriously.
Classic yah humblebragging. How comes only this specific subspecies of posh people know nice dealers and willingly spend time in squats?
Literally every drug dealer I've crossed paths with has been a scumbag (perhaps because I've never been a customer?) and the few genuine squats I've seen have been horrible stinking crack dens inhabited by broken people (and no raves).
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Isn't the gap between Con and Labour narrowing a bit ? This was not supposed to happen ? The Green vote coming straight over to Labour.
UKIP are also far too low. I think Ipsos-MORI tends to flatter the left a tad in their polls.
An approval rating of 33% is higher than William Hague ever achieved, but I think Labour will struggle to reach the Conservatives' 2001 vote share with Corbyn in charge.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Isn't the gap between Con and Labour narrowing a bit ? This was not supposed to happen ? The Green vote coming straight over to Labour.
UKIP are also far too low. I think Ipsos-MORI tends to flatter the left a tad in their polls.
An approval rating of 33% is higher than William Hague ever achieved, but I think Labour will struggle to reach the Conservatives' 2001 vote share with Corbyn in charge.
Yes. This is 'who do you sympathise with right now' poll not 'there's an actual real general election tomorrow so this shit is serious' poll.
Although, having said that, even those were wildly wrong this year.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
Perhaps Corbyn should suggest a joint leadership ...like the two David's of the SDP and the Liberals with Derek Hatton coming in. They could destroy Labour much more quickly , and it would be less painful.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
Do you think Corbyn is patriotic, a nice scottish woman asked me.
We've been told the accents of canvassers is a vital factor in polling. This is obviously a case of the poor, innocent respondent being presented with an image of Corbyn waving a white flag while poking out of the pocket of Sturgeon who's wearing a Salmond mask. Or something.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
Yes, it was. Would you have believed Tsipras could win twice two years ago ? What happens if we enter another downturn after all this austerity ?
As Chinese companies are invited to get involved with British high-speed rail projects, British railway companies win contracts on American high-speed rail projects.
Network Rail? They can't even get the existing lines into Waterloo running properly.
The Yanks are dooooooomed.
Upper deck of the re-vamped Birmingham New Street station opened today - "Grand Central" shopping centre. Unfortunately, the down escalators onto the concourse level weren't working!
I bet the platform level is still a dungeon.
Yep, and one that apparently significantly hampers service patterns because they cannot expand.
Off to Berlin next week. Interesting to see what Hauptbahnhof is like.
I visited about a week after it opened and was very impressed - I remember thinking it had a genuine Fritz Lang feel about it.
Since then I think we've all got used to the big plate glass shopping mall station and, going back last year, the sheen had definitely fallen and there was a bit of train station crapness creeping in. Definitely a step down from St. Pancras.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
Yes, it was. Would you have believed Tsipras could win twice two years ago ? What happens if we enter another downturn after all this austerity ?
Do you think Corbyn is patriotic, a nice scottish woman asked me.
We've been told the accents of canvassers is a vital factor in polling. This is obviously a case of the poor, innocent respondent being presented with an image of Corbyn waving a white flag while poking out of the pocket of Sturgeon who's wearing a Salmond mask. Or something.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Exeter, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal seats
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
Yes, it was. Would you have believed Tsipras could win twice two years ago ? What happens if we enter another downturn after all this austerity ?
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
The Labour Party Conference is going to have a strange atmosphere. Like a wake, with a rave going on in one corner....
Or the other way round...
Perhaps it is more like the Party has been told it has cancer, and a chunk of the membership is all upbeat because "Yay" Now we really have an excuse to get involved in the Macmillan Charity Coffee Morning!"
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Exeter, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal seats
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Exeter, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal seats
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
Probably find they're even in the lead in 2017 or 2018.
It'll be deeply irrelevent to the final score, don't you agree?
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
Concerns about the leadership may be present, but not forefront for people right now perhaps, and there are enough people who are sufficiently scared by the mere prospect of what a Tory majority will do to see it creep up?
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
Yes, it was. Would you have believed Tsipras could win twice two years ago ? What happens if we enter another downturn after all this austerity ?
But this is Tsipras as 21st century Vicar of Bray.
He has turned the Grandstand - Reverse Ferret cycle into an ever descending spiral.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Exeter, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal seats
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
Big cities like Birmingham would be far more interesting politically - and far more engaging for the voters - if they had say a dozen seats like slices of pizza, fanning out from the city centre through suburbia. A dozen marginals. All in play. All really having to win the vote. All representing a true slice of urban and suburban issues....
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Exeter, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal seats
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
At the same time, the historic marginal seats in North Kent, Northamptonshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, look as though they're moving out of reach for Labour, save in a landslide year.
Another big rightward shift is under way in seats that were once based on coal-mining. Between them, the Conservatives and UKIP polled more votes than Labour did in Bolsover, this year.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
Big cities like Birmingham would be far more interesting politically - and far more engaging for the voters - if they had say a dozen seats like slices of pizza, fanning out from the city centre through suburbia. A dozen marginals. All in play. All really having to win the vote. All representing a true slice of urban and suburban issues....
Terrible idea.
That's the classic way town/city seats are gerrymandered into the blue column under FPTP. Draw a thin pizza slice protruding into the countryside to rope in just enough Tory voters from safe rural areas to outvote those who live in the city.
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
The leaflets write themselves.
MEET LABOUR'S TEAM FOR GOVERNMENT
"It will be my pleasure and honor to host an event in Parliament where our friends from Hezbollah will be speaking. I’ve also invited our friends from Hamas to come and speak as well." -- Jeremy Corbyn, prospective Prime Minister
"It's about time we started honouring those people involved in the armed struggle. It was the bombs and bullets and sacrifice made by the likes of Bobby Sands that brought Britain to the negotiating table. The peace we have now is due to the action of the IRA." -- John McDonnell, prospective Chancellor of the Exchequer
[On seeing England flags on the outside of a house] “I’ve never seen anything like it before. It had three huge flags covering the whole house. I thought it was remarkable." -- Emily Thornberry, prospective Minister for Employment
"I really believe that meat should be treated in exactly the same way as tobacco, with public campaigns to stop people eating it." -- Kerry McCarthy, prospective Minister for Agriculture
"White people love to play divide & rule. We should not play their game." -- Diane Abbott, prospective Development Secretary
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Exeter, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal seats
I remember some years ago, Mike did a piece on levels of car ownership being a good predictor of local voting intention. Lewis Baston goes into this in some detail.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
....
Terrible idea.
That's the classic way town/city seats are gerrymandered into the blue column under FPTP. Draw a thin pizza slice protruding into the countryside to rope in just enough Tory voters from safe rural areas to outvote those who live in the city.
It's the outworking of trends that have been apparent for 40 years or more. Core cities are running out of Conservatives. Smaller cities, big towns, and ex-mining areas are running out of Labour voters.
I wonder if people actually move deliberately to places where they feel more comfortable politically?
Those numbers look a bit out of whack to me due to the fact that the Greens have lost half their votes and are still on their GE score. Effectively if you add together Lab+LD+Green then this combined total is 4% higher than the GE. I also don't buy that UKIP has lost nearly half its vote while the migrant crisis is in the news every day.
Hmmm... The Farage hokey-cokey reflected extremely badly on the party and caused lasting damage. It's one thing saying you're not keen on foreigners coming here, quite another to appear incompetent/incapable when it comes to actually doing anything about it. Also worth remembering that they somehow managed to reduce their seats at the last GE - that impotence will be fresh in the minds of many of those who were tempted to vote Kipper back in May.
Do you have anything to back that claim up? I have said it before but this is Westminster bubble stuff. It is not just exclusive to UKIP, Lord Ashcroft's non-dom status will never register with the average man/woman on the street. I would bet most don't even know what a non-dom is.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
....
Terrible idea.
That's the classic way town/city seats are gerrymandered into the blue column under FPTP. Draw a thin pizza slice protruding into the countryside to rope in just enough Tory voters from safe rural areas to outvote those who live in the city.
It's the outworking of trends that have been apparent for 40 years or more. Core cities are running out of Conservatives. Smaller cities, big towns, and ex-mining areas are running out of Labour voters.
I wonder if people actually move deliberately to places where they feel more comfortable politically?
This is an encouraging starting point for the new Labour leader.His and Labour's progression will be measured by how much this new injection of new blood can affect change.A starting point will be candidates appearing in all local by-elections and a bottoming out of the SNP landslide in Scotland.
It's the outworking of trends that have been apparent for 40 years or more. Core cities are running out of Conservatives. Smaller cities, big towns, and ex-mining areas are running out of Labour voters.
I wonder if people actually move deliberately to places where they feel more comfortable politically?
Isn't this just immigration causing our core cities to become more ethnic minority? They vote for Labour at much higher rates than people British white background. As they become a bigger and bigger part of Labour's membership, Labour favour multiculturalism more, and disdain the white working class more, which means the white areas of the country vote more for other parties.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday. Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
....
Terrible idea.
That's the classic way town/city seats are gerrymandered into the blue column under FPTP. Draw a thin pizza slice protruding into the countryside to rope in just enough Tory voters from safe rural areas to outvote those who live in the city.
It's the outworking of trends that have been apparent for 40 years or more. Core cities are running out of Conservatives. Smaller cities, big towns, and ex-mining areas are running out of Labour voters.
I wonder if people actually move deliberately to places where they feel more comfortable politically?
They move where they feel more comfortable. I lived in London for a year, and hated it. I then moved to a small English village in Hampshire, in affluent Hart as it happens, and love it.
They weigh the Tory votes in my village. UKIP+Tories get 75-90% in the locals.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
Big cities like Birmingham would be far more interesting politically - and far more engaging for the voters - if they had say a dozen seats like slices of pizza, fanning out from the city centre through suburbia. A dozen marginals. All in play. All really having to win the vote. All representing a true slice of urban and suburban issues....
I rather liked the idea of taking, say, 5 current constituencies and reducing them into 1, 4 member constituency with a proportional system.
I live in Ladywood, 75 % Labour. Can't us in the JQ be in a posher constituency?
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday. Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
....
Terrible idea.
That's the classic way town/city seats are gerrymandered into the blue column under FPTP. Draw a thin pizza slice protruding into the countryside to rope in just enough Tory voters from safe rural areas to outvote those who live in the city.
It's the outworking of trends that have been apparent for 40 years or more. Core cities are running out of Conservatives. Smaller cities, big towns, and ex-mining areas are running out of Labour voters.
I wonder if people actually move deliberately to places where they feel more comfortable politically?
They move where they feel more comfortable. I lived in London for a year, and hated it. I then moved to a small English village in Hampshire, in affluent Hart as it happens, and love it.
They weigh the Tory votes in my village. UKIP+Tories get 75-90% in the locals.
Almost worthy of the moniker "The Peoples Democratic republic of Hart".
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday. Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
....
Terrible idea.
That's the classic way town/city seats are gerrymandered into the blue column under FPTP. Draw a thin pizza slice protruding into the countryside to rope in just enough Tory voters from safe rural areas to outvote those who live in the city.
It's the outworking of trends that have been apparent for 40 years or more. Core cities are running out of Conservatives. Smaller cities, big towns, and ex-mining areas are running out of Labour voters.
I wonder if people actually move deliberately to places where they feel more comfortable politically?
They move where they feel more comfortable. I lived in London for a year, and hated it. I then moved to a small English village in Hampshire, in affluent Hart as it happens, and love it.
They weigh the Tory votes in my village. UKIP+Tories get 75-90% in the locals.
Almost worthy of the moniker "The Peoples Democratic republic of Hart".
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
Quite - it's all about the Midlands/northern marginals. Piling up votes in the inner cities won't buy Corbyn any more MPs. It's strange that Labour supporters are forgetting what just happened so soon.
Those numbers look a bit out of whack to me due to the fact that the Greens have lost half their votes and are still on their GE score. Effectively if you add together Lab+LD+Green then this combined total is 4% higher than the GE. I also don't buy that UKIP has lost nearly half its vote while the migrant crisis is in the news every day.
Hmmm... The Farage hokey-cokey reflected extremely badly on the party and caused lasting damage. It's one thing saying you're not keen on foreigners coming here, quite another to appear incompetent/incapable when it comes to actually doing anything about it. Also worth remembering that they somehow managed to reduce their seats at the last GE - that impotence will be fresh in the minds of many of those who were tempted to vote Kipper back in May.
Do you have anything to back that claim up? I have said it before but this is Westminster bubble stuff. It is not just exclusive to UKIP, Lord Ashcroft's non-dom status will never register with the average man/woman on the street. I would bet most don't even know what a non-dom is.
Nothing quantitative no. Just a couple of overheard pub conversations around that time (actually one those at Stockport beer festival).
It's the outworking of trends that have been apparent for 40 years or more. Core cities are running out of Conservatives. Smaller cities, big towns, and ex-mining areas are running out of Labour voters.
I wonder if people actually move deliberately to places where they feel more comfortable politically?
Isn't this just immigration causing our core cities to become more ethnic minority? They vote for Labour at much higher rates than people British white background. As they become a bigger and bigger part of Labour's membership, Labour favour multiculturalism more, and disdain the white working class more, which means the white areas of the country vote more for other parties.
From the same report, immigration is changing the South too. Even my area Hart is 10% non-White. Reading is only 60-70% white.
There is a high-concentration of the Corbynite Left in places such as Brighton and, increasingly, Exeter but demographic change is probably a bigger problem for the Conservatives.
Unless they can detach voting from ethnicity and onto economics.
Of course, when many Dutch Somalis found the Netherlands was not the land of opportunity they hoped for, they waited until they got passports and moved to London. It was a similar case for the mother of the Charlie Hebdo attackers, who moved to the UK for the "more Islamic environment".
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
... But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
Big cities like Birmingham would be far more interesting politically - and far more engaging for the voters - if they had say a dozen seats like slices of pizza, fanning out from the city centre through suburbia. A dozen marginals. All in play. All really having to win the vote. All representing a true slice of urban and suburban issues....
Terrible idea.
That's the classic way town/city seats are gerrymandered into the blue column under FPTP. Draw a thin pizza slice protruding into the countryside to rope in just enough Tory voters from safe rural areas to outvote those who live in the city.
Well other than political boundaries are set by the independent Electoral Commission. And that Labour changed the composition of County Durham so it became a single political entity under control of Labour in perpetuity rather than having several councils, some of which were Lib Dem.
So, it's a message to the voters too – we genuinely don't care what you think. There is – isn't there always – a cod-academic justification for ignoring what voters think and feel. The intellectual wing of Corbynism – a relative term, to be fair – will cite the Overton window. The notion that the public have only a limited number of political ideas at any one time which are the ones that the media and the mainstream political classes discuss. If only you could widen the debate – or "change the discourse" – then you could get voters to change their mind.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
Big cities like Birmingham would be far more interesting politically - and far more engaging for the voters - if they had say a dozen seats like slices of pizza, fanning out from the city centre through suburbia. A dozen marginals. All in play. All really having to win the vote. All representing a true slice of urban and suburban issues....
Terrible idea.
That's the classic way town/city seats are gerrymandered into the blue column under FPTP. Draw a thin pizza slice protruding into the countryside to rope in just enough Tory voters from safe rural areas to outvote those who live in the city.
I specifically said a dozen marginals, all in play.
Interesting that you want to keep Labour's little inner-city fiefdoms. How well does that work out for their occupants?
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
I
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
....
It's the outworking of trends that have been apparent for 40 years or more. Core cities are running out of Conservatives. Smaller cities, big towns, and ex-mining areas are running out of Labour voters.
I wonder if people actually move deliberately to places where they feel more comfortable politically?
No. It's called "urban flight"..
See also the US..
Not exactly. Conservative support is strong in plenty of smaller cities and big towns such as as Plymouth, Bournemouth, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Dudley, Basildon, Bury, the Medway towns, Portsmouth, Gloucester, Worcester, St. Alban's, Bedford, etc. but their political culture is very different from that of the core cities.
Unless they can detach voting from ethnicity and onto economics.
I don't think that will happen until integration has reached the point where people of all racial backgrounds share the same culture, and we think of skin colour similar the way we think of eye colour. That can only happen when immigration is brought down to reasonable levels.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I don't know if you saw that very interesting report I linked to from Lewis Baston yesterday.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
Big cities like Birmingham would be far more interesting politically - and far more engaging for the voters - if they had say a dozen seats like slices of pizza, fanning out from the city centre through suburbia. A dozen marginals. All in play. All really having to win the vote. All representing a true slice of urban and suburban issues....
Terrible idea.
That's the classic way town/city seats are gerrymandered into the blue column under FPTP. Draw a thin pizza slice protruding into the countryside to rope in just enough Tory voters from safe rural areas to outvote those who live in the city.
I specifically said a dozen marginals, all in play.
Interesting that you want to keep Labour's little inner-city fiefdoms. How well does that work out for their occupants?
It would make GEs less predictable and magnify swing effects in terms of seats.
Could be interesting. You've mainly got me thinking about what toppings I'd want on my Birmingham pizza though.
If you want to practise Gerrymandering - try http://www.redistrictinggame.org/ - learn all about packing and cracking. (also Hijacking and Kidnapping)
Currently (Pre SNP landslide) the electoral system favours Labour (who have in general smaller seats due to affluent voters leaving the inner urban areas), partly because they would win more marginal seats - meaning their vote was well distributed. This is, however due to normal demographics rather than Gerrymandering.
It's the outworking of trends that have been apparent for 40 years or more. Core cities are running out of Conservatives. Smaller cities, big towns, and ex-mining areas are running out of Labour voters.
I wonder if people actually move deliberately to places where they feel more comfortable politically?
Isn't this just immigration causing our core cities to become more ethnic minority? They vote for Labour at much higher rates than people British white background. As they become a bigger and bigger part of Labour's membership, Labour favour multiculturalism more, and disdain the white working class more, which means the white areas of the country vote more for other parties.
From the same report, immigration is changing the South too. Even my area Hart is 10% non-White. Reading is only 60-70% white.
There is a high-concentration of the Corbynite Left in places such as Brighton and, increasingly, Exeter but demographic change is probably a bigger problem for the Conservatives.
Unless they can detach voting from ethnicity and onto economics.
It does seem that BME voters are more willing to vote Conservative in places like Reading than in places like East Ham or Edmonton. Or look at a constituency like Hertsmere. It was only 75% white British at the last census, yet the Conservatives won their highest ever vote share (and UKIP won another 12%). In places like Elstree or Bushey, Asian voters are probably just as likely to vote Conservative as their white counterparts do.
Even Foot didn't receive the barrage of hostility Corbyn has received. I am sure the Mirror and the Guardian were on Foot's side.
Perhaps the barrage of hostility and words of warnings heaped on Corbyn by a former Labour leader, several Labour MPs, Labour Grandees and Labour leaning journalists was also a contributing factor?
You have to offset those criticisms Jezbollah has received with the praise he's received from Gerry Adams, Argentina and Hamas.
Oh...
It is still puzzling...why is the Labour support slowly going up ?
And with other pollsters the Tories are going up by even more.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
I
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal.
Birmingham City is becoming a bit like Greater London too. For a Tory overall majority, I'd have expected both Northfield and Edgebaston to fall.
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
....
It's the outworking of trends that have been apparent for 40 years or more. Core cities are running out of Conservatives. Smaller cities, big towns, and ex-mining areas are running out of Labour voters.
I wonder if people actually move deliberately to places where they feel more comfortable politically?
No. It's called "urban flight"..
See also the US..
Not exactly. Conservative support is strong in plenty of smaller cities and big towns such as as Plymouth, Bournemouth, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Dudley, Basildon, Bury, the Medway towns, Portsmouth, Gloucester, Worcester, St. Alban's, Bedford, etc. but their political culture is very different from that of the core cities.
What's the difference?
I have my own balanced unbias view: which is that Camden, Bristol West, Central Brighton and Shoreditch all seem to be full of hipsters, hippies and various other trendy dickheads.
"BIDEN A GO? – A Dem insider emails that word inside the Draft Biden operation is “it's a done deal that Joe runs.” Of course people who want to draft Biden WOULD say that but still…"
BBC R4 has just broadcast Hilary Mantel's 'The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher'. You don't even have to listen to it, the very fact that it exists and the BBC has broadcast it will give that warm, familiar feeling of outrage!
BECOMING swamped with pupils who do not speak English is "one of the biggest challenges" facing Bradford's schools, with numbers likely to soar further, a meeting of school leaders has heard.
And a union leader has warned that "millions of pounds" of extra Government funding was needed to deal with the situation
Lets face the fact,the government of this country has lost control of immigration and with lefties using the word 'Swamped' it must be serious,plus we need million of pounds just for the English language skills with budgets in Bradford for the handicapped been cut,it's a f-ing disgrace.
Unless they can detach voting from ethnicity and onto economics.
I don't think that will happen until integration has reached the point where people of all racial backgrounds share the same culture, and we think of skin colour similar the way we think of eye colour. That can only happen when immigration is brought down to reasonable levels.
Many ethnic (I do dislike this term) voters have concerns about immigration and it's effects that are similar to white voters.
Lumping all ethnic voters into one group fails to recognise distinct differences between them.
There is some data, both from Ashcroft in 2010, and post 2015, that makes it fairly explicit that Afro-Caribbean or Islamic backgrounds lean more to Labour than other groups such as Indian Hindus etc.
Wealth, poverty and aspiration reaches across colour divides, and it is an influx of white European immigration that has detoxified the immigration/race debate. The race card has been torn up.
Comments
ouch
Still, maybe their MP can fire up the membership.....
CON 321
LAB 243
LIB 8
UKIP 0
Green 1
SNP 56
PlaidC 3
N.Ire 18
Now who would they prefer to see as PM? Any Tory or Corbyn who wants a united Ireland.
Isn't the gap between Con and Labour narrowing a bit ? This was not supposed to happen ? The Green vote coming straight over to Labour.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-september-2015-topline.pdf
Corbyn actually comes out quite well now compared with Ed M in March 2015 (37% 'Like' vs 30% for Ed).
Also a surprising (to me at least) boost since March 2015 for Cameron personally and for the Conservatives: 41% 'like' the Conservatives now, compared with 32% in March. I'm not sure why that would have changed so much over that period.
Note that the Labour brand advantage has gone, in this survey at least.
7% for UKIP is quite a bit lower than the 13-16% figure that the other pollsters show. The combined right wing score of 46% is also well below the 50-55% that the others show.
Personally I would place far more reliance on the leadership ratings for the while. With just under five years to the next election, voting intention is more an expression of mood rather than anything to be taken too seriously.
Literally every drug dealer I've crossed paths with has been a scumbag (perhaps because I've never been a customer?) and the few genuine squats I've seen have been horrible stinking crack dens inhabited by broken people (and no raves).
At best, there would be a room somewhere where a few were sharing a spliff.
There might be a few snogging or canoodling in corners, but nothing like wall-to-wall sex.
Oh...
Although, having said that, even those were wildly wrong this year.
Trust me in marginals like Warrington South the Tories will be reminding the voters that Corbyn is the Sinn Fein endorsed leader and his past comments on the IRA.
Since then I think we've all got used to the big plate glass shopping mall station and, going back last year, the sheen had definitely fallen and there was a bit of train station crapness creeping in. Definitely a step down from St. Pancras.
Lots of QE..
I was struck by his remark that the Midlands (outside Birmingham and its environs, Nottingham, and Leicester) is now starting to resemble the South in its voting patterns. But at the same time, some parts of the South (eg Luton, Brighton & Hove, Exeter, Oxford) are starting to resemble Greater London.
But, Corbyn seems destined to accelerate the Midlands voting like the South, while deterring the South from voting like London.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that Corbyn will go down badly in marginal seats
The centre-right are losing any real grip on core cities, unless it's affluent outer suburbia that doesn't feel very city like anyway.
It'll be deeply irrelevent to the final score, don't you agree?
He has turned the Grandstand - Reverse Ferret cycle into an ever descending spiral.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-long-view-comparing-1992-and-2015.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/agriculture/food/11887317/Treat-meat-eaters-like-smokers-warns-Jeremy-Corbyns-new-vegan-farming-minister-Kerry-McCarthy.html
That's the classic way town/city seats are gerrymandered into the blue column under FPTP. Draw a thin pizza slice protruding into the countryside to rope in just enough Tory voters from safe rural areas to outvote those who live in the city.
MEET LABOUR'S TEAM FOR GOVERNMENT
"It will be my pleasure and honor to host an event in Parliament where our friends from Hezbollah will be speaking. I’ve also invited our friends from Hamas to come and speak as well."
-- Jeremy Corbyn, prospective Prime Minister
"It's about time we started honouring those people involved in the armed struggle. It was the bombs and bullets and sacrifice made by the likes of Bobby Sands that brought Britain to the negotiating table. The peace we have now is due to the action of the IRA."
-- John McDonnell, prospective Chancellor of the Exchequer
[On seeing England flags on the outside of a house]
“I’ve never seen anything like it before. It had three huge flags covering the whole house. I thought it was remarkable."
-- Emily Thornberry, prospective Minister for Employment
"I really believe that meat should be treated in exactly the same way as tobacco, with public campaigns to stop people eating it."
-- Kerry McCarthy, prospective Minister for Agriculture
"White people love to play divide & rule. We should not play their game."
-- Diane Abbott, prospective Development Secretary
I wonder if people actually move deliberately to places where they feel more comfortable politically?
See also the US..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11887975/The-end-of-the-Labour-Party-might-be-closer-than-any-of-us-really-believed.html
They weigh the Tory votes in my village. UKIP+Tories get 75-90% in the locals.
I live in Ladywood, 75 % Labour. Can't us in the JQ be in a posher constituency?
There is a high-concentration of the Corbynite Left in places such as Brighton and, increasingly, Exeter but demographic change is probably a bigger problem for the Conservatives.
Unless they can detach voting from ethnicity and onto economics.
http://www.voanews.com/content/migrants-find-disappointment-frustration-in-sweden/2973768.html
Here's an interview with one Syrian migrant, who is upset because his housing is a full 30 minutes away from a supermarket:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHNh-d9INiI
Of course, when many Dutch Somalis found the Netherlands was not the land of opportunity they hoped for, they waited until they got passports and moved to London. It was a similar case for the mother of the Charlie Hebdo attackers, who moved to the UK for the "more Islamic environment".
Interesting that you want to keep Labour's little inner-city fiefdoms. How well does that work out for their occupants?
Could be interesting. You've mainly got me thinking about what toppings I'd want on my Birmingham pizza though.
Currently (Pre SNP landslide) the electoral system favours Labour (who have in general smaller seats due to affluent voters leaving the inner urban areas), partly because they would win more marginal seats - meaning their vote was well distributed. This is, however due to normal demographics rather than Gerrymandering.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/24/carly-fiorina-tops-hillary-clinton-head-head-match/
I have my own balanced unbias view: which is that Camden, Bristol West, Central Brighton and Shoreditch all seem to be full of hipsters, hippies and various other trendy dickheads.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/09/24/exclusive-claims-about-ex-tory-candidate-mark-clarke-embroiled-in-suicide-bullying-allegations/
Is this sort of behaviour common among the more active elements of the Tories?
'Isn't the gap between Con and Labour narrowing a bit ? This was not supposed to happen ? The Green vote coming straight over to Labour.'
Keep clutching at those straws it's pure comedy gold.
"BIDEN A GO? – A Dem insider emails that word inside the Draft Biden operation is “it's a done deal that Joe runs.” Of course people who want to draft Biden WOULD say that but still…"
Read more: http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-money/2015/09/2015-09-23-pro-morning-money-210338#ixzz3mfWVzaTs
BBC R4 has just broadcast Hilary Mantel's 'The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher'. You don't even have to listen to it, the very fact that it exists and the BBC has broadcast it will give that warm, familiar feeling of outrage!
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/13780600.Influx_of__new_to_English__pupils_is_biggest_challenge_for_Bradford_s_schools/
From the Article -
BECOMING swamped with pupils who do not speak English is "one of the biggest challenges" facing Bradford's schools, with numbers likely to soar further, a meeting of school leaders has heard.
And a union leader has warned that "millions of pounds" of extra Government funding was needed to deal with the situation
Lets face the fact,the government of this country has lost control of immigration and with lefties using the word 'Swamped' it must be serious,plus we need million of pounds just for the English language skills with budgets in Bradford for the handicapped been cut,it's a f-ing disgrace.
Lumping all ethnic voters into one group fails to recognise distinct differences between them.
There is some data, both from Ashcroft in 2010, and post 2015, that makes it fairly explicit that Afro-Caribbean or Islamic backgrounds lean more to Labour than other groups such as Indian Hindus etc.
Wealth, poverty and aspiration reaches across colour divides, and it is an influx of white European immigration that has detoxified the immigration/race debate. The race card has been torn up.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34346449
They’re not having much luck this year what with this and the crane that collapsed.