Fascinating commentary by Don Brind. I am getting more confused by the second who best to vote for. After Tyson's comments the other night i was pretty well set on Corbyn, but now I am not so sure.
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it. Total cost £300m. The Argentinians may even have gone 50/50 on it.
As it was, we spent £3,000m, 255 men dead and six ships destroyed. Hard to justify in hindsight. £1m per inhabitant. One man dead (just UK) for every twelve inhabitants. Still a running sore. But it won Maggie her election.
Corbyn is basically in favour of negotiation not war. Falklands is one failed example of war. So is Palestine. And Iraq. And Libya. Northern Ireland and Iran are successful examples of negotiation. I'm sure a lot of people will agree with Corbyn. It is not necessarily a vote-loser.
Why do we have to negotiate in the first place? The islanders don't want to leave, and we shouldn't have to bribe them to leave.
They might have preferred to leave with a sufficent financial bribe. It would have been a win/win.
By the way, I keep reading that the ethnic minority vote is "moving towards the Tories". Is this really true? Superficially it certainly doesn't seem to match up with the results in May, a good number of Labour's few gains from the Tories were in seats with a high % of ethnic minorities - obviously the London seats, but also Dewsbury and Wolverhampton SW in otherwise barren regions for Labour.
Danny there IS some evidence (and I think that it's a good thing for the purposes of demonstrating integration)
British Future survey finds Labour still well ahead with black, Asian and minority ethnic voters but suggests Conservatives have broadened their appeal
One million votes from black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities helped put David Cameron back into Downing Street, according to new research into attitudes among minority voters.
Labour remains well ahead with BAME voters on 52%, finds research by the thinkthank British Future, but the gap between the two main parties is shrinking dramatically, especially among Asian voters.
The research also reveals interesting differences in party support by ethnic group, showing much higher support for the Conservatives among Asian voters than other ethnic minorities: • Asian: 50% Labour, 38% Conservative • Black: 67% Labour, 21% Conservative • Mixed race: 49% Labour, 26% Conservative
Different faith groups also gave very different responses, with BAME Christians and Muslims preferring Labour to the Conservatives, but Hindus and Sikhs preferring the Conservatives to Labour: • Christian: 56% Labour, 31% Conservative • Muslim: 64% Labour, 25% Conservative • Hindu: 41% Labour, 49% Conservative • Sikh (based on a small sample): 41% Labour, 49% Conservative
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it.
.
Bolleaux.
None of it was a waste of time, money and effort.
As a side effect, Naval Architects learned a huge amount about ship design and fire proofing that has and will save many lives. And the Soviets got a nasty wake up call - they were surprised by how much Britain managed to achieve with such relatively little, and did some serious thinking.
By the way, I keep reading that the ethnic minority vote is "moving towards the Tories". Is this really true? Superficially it certainly doesn't seem to match up with the results in May, a good number of Labour's few gains from the Tories were in seats with a high % of ethnic minorities - obviously the London seats, but also Dewsbury and Wolverhampton SW in otherwise barren regions for Labour.
Danny there IS some evidence (and I think that it's a good thing for the purposes of demonstrating integration)
British Future survey finds Labour still well ahead with black, Asian and minority ethnic voters but suggests Conservatives have broadened their appeal
One million votes from black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities helped put David Cameron back into Downing Street, according to new research into attitudes among minority voters.
Labour remains well ahead with BAME voters on 52%, finds research by the thinkthank British Future, but the gap between the two main parties is shrinking dramatically, especially among Asian voters.
The research also reveals interesting differences in party support by ethnic group, showing much higher support for the Conservatives among Asian voters than other ethnic minorities: • Asian: 50% Labour, 38% Conservative • Black: 67% Labour, 21% Conservative • Mixed race: 49% Labour, 26% Conservative
Different faith groups also gave very different responses, with BAME Christians and Muslims preferring Labour to the Conservatives, but Hindus and Sikhs preferring the Conservatives to Labour: • Christian: 56% Labour, 31% Conservative • Muslim: 64% Labour, 25% Conservative • Hindu: 41% Labour, 49% Conservative • Sikh (based on a small sample): 41% Labour, 49% Conservative
I believe that another survey rather contradicted those findings and suggested that Labour's advantage is little changed.
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it. Total cost £300m. The Argentinians may even have gone 50/50 on it.
As it was, we spent £3,000m, 255 men dead and six ships destroyed. Hard to justify in hindsight. £1m per inhabitant. One man dead (just UK) for every twelve inhabitants. Still a running sore. But it won Maggie her election.
Corbyn is basically in favour of negotiation not war. Falklands is one failed example of war. So is Palestine. And Iraq. And Libya. Northern Ireland and Iran are successful examples of negotiation. I'm sure a lot of people will agree with Corbyn. It is not necessarily a vote-loser.
I've been there. No they wouldn't. They absolutely wouldn't.
I believe that another survey rather contradicted those findings and suggested that Labour's advantage is little changed.
Ooh, can you give me the link please? I'm a sad old Anorak and I've been collecting analysis of the General Election. Contradictory views are good to have.
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it. Total cost £300m. The Argentinians may even have gone 50/50 on it.
As it was, we spent £3,000m, 255 men dead and six ships destroyed. Hard to justify in hindsight. £1m per inhabitant. One man dead (just UK) for every twelve inhabitants. Still a running sore. But it won Maggie her election.
Corbyn is basically in favour of negotiation not war. Falklands is one failed example of war. So is Palestine. And Iraq. And Libya. Northern Ireland and Iran are successful examples of negotiation. I'm sure a lot of people will agree with Corbyn. It is not necessarily a vote-loser.
I've been there. No they wouldn't. They absolutely wouldn't.
If we had fought and won the Falklands War under a Labour government, we'd likely be celebrating the victory every year with a national holiday.
The real objection to the conflict has and always will be that the 'loathed' Thatcher was involved. Nothing more.
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it.
.
Bolleaux.
None of it was a waste of time, money and effort.
As a side effect, Naval Architects learned a huge amount about ship design and fire proofing that has and will save many lives. And the Soviets got a nasty wake up call - they were surprised by how much Britain managed to achieve with such relatively little, and did some serious thinking.
That is so unconvincing.
Out of interest, is your moniker after Barry Barnes? I am fairly certain I can rule out Fred Barnes.
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it.
.
Bolleaux.
None of it was a waste of time, money and effort.
As a side effect, Naval Architects learned a huge amount about ship design and fire proofing that has and will save many lives. And the Soviets got a nasty wake up call - they were surprised by how much Britain managed to achieve with such relatively little, and did some serious thinking.
That is so unconvincing.
Out of interest, is your moniker after Barry Barnes? I am fairly certain I can rule out Fred Barnes.
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it.
.
Bolleaux.
None of it was a waste of time, money and effort.
As a side effect, Naval Architects learned a huge amount about ship design and fire proofing that has and will save many lives. And the Soviets got a nasty wake up call - they were surprised by how much Britain managed to achieve with such relatively little, and did some serious thinking.
That is so unconvincing.
Out of interest, is your moniker after Barry Barnes? I am fairly certain I can rule out Fred Barnes.
No. I live in Barnes.
I used to live there many years ago, and drink at the Red Lion.
I believe that another survey rather contradicted those findings and suggested that Labour's advantage is little changed.
Ooh, can you give me the link please? I'm a sad old Anorak and I've been collecting analysis of the General Election. Contradictory views are good to have.
Anthony Wells had a thread on this on his Polling Report site on 15th June.
Young people wren't around when the Falklands happened. So sure, they don't set their stall by it and I doubt Corbyn's views on Argentina will count for much among them (unlike their parents). But every current voter knows full well who the IRA are, who Hamas are, who Hezbollah are (enough to know they aren't "friends" at least). And what emerges is not an isolated view, but a narrative. And narratives can bring down governments, and they can stop Corbyn forming one.
If Mr Corbyn does win, Labour is for the jump. Lemmings, it should be said, have always been unjustly maligned. They do not, as legend has it, leap in suicidal formation off the ledge. We need a new symbol of pointless sacrifice and I suggest the term “lefties”. Mr Corbyn has nothing to offer expect puerile slogans screamed at the public as the Labour party falls down the chasm.
People like Dave Ward would like to see the back of the Blairite side of the party. We’re going nowhere, Mr Ward, because in the end we will win. The reason we will win is because it is only when we do that Labour has any hope of getting into government. Enjoy your moment of infamy but don’t get accustomed to it because your failure is certain and, when you send the party to the inevitable, we will be there to make it right again. We know which side we are on, you see. I only wish you did.
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it.
.
Bolleaux.
None of it was a waste of time, money and effort.
As a side effect, Naval Architects learned a huge amount about ship design and fire proofing that has and will save many lives. And the Soviets got a nasty wake up call - they were surprised by how much Britain managed to achieve with such relatively little, and did some serious thinking.
That is so unconvincing.
Out of interest, is your moniker after Barry Barnes? I am fairly certain I can rule out Fred Barnes.
No. I live in Barnes.
Was looking up Barnesian as an adjective. Came across Barry Barnes as a result. I like the idea that the mere having of a model will make its predictions more likely as outcomes. The placebo effect for forecasting.
Our results do not support the idea of a dramatic shift in ethnic minority voting behaviour in 2015. Instead, the shifts we find among Britain's growing minority communities are the same as those found in the wider electorate in England and Wales: incremental Conservative and Labour advance, a collapse in Liberal Democrat voting, and a surge in support for minor party entrants.
There are lessons here for both Labour and the Conservatives. The Tories' efforts to appeal to minority voters do seem to be bearing some fruit, particularly among the more prosperous and middle class minorities, but the advance to date is modest and much work is still needed to "close the gap". Labour still receive the majority of ethnic minority votes, but they were unable to grow their support among minorities, despite the collapse of the Lib Dems whose opposition to the Iraq war had won them many ethnic minority votes in the mid 2000s.
Our evidence fits with other research suggesting that traditional partisan loyalties to Labour are fading away among ethnic minority voters, producing an electorate more willing to "shop around" and consider a range of other political options, including the Conservatives, the Greens and UKIP. British Future are therefore right to conclude that the ethnic minority vote is increasingly "up for grabs", even if Labour still has a large starting advantage. All parties will need to work hard to appeal for this growing and politically crucial vote in future elections, and much more targeted research is needed to understand ethnic minority voters' concerns and priorities.
@Disraeli Why would voting Conservative demonstrate 'integration'? Surely all it demonstrates that the Tories appear to be a more inclusive party than before.
That said, it's still a minority of ethnic minorities (so to speak) that do vote Conservative.
For all the usual suspects faux outrage, the Guardian's CiF bears a distinct resemblance to the D Mail comments section. Bit more erudite sure, but I doubt Dave thinks he's blown the next election by using the "s" word.
I have been musing over those very possibilities for the last week, how many ambitious or older Labour MP's within the Kendall branch of the LPP are going to sit back and watch their chances of reaching the Government benches diminish rather than increase over the next five to ten years?
On topic, is it possible that if Kendall comes a very distant 4th with Corbyn elected, there could be either another SDP split, or a bunch of defections to LD and/or Con of the centrist Labout party?
For all the usual suspects faux outrage, the Guardian's CiF bears a distinct resemblance to the D Mail comments section. Bit more erudite sure, but I doubt Dave thinks he's blown the next election by using the "s" word.
The fact that they can only (ridiculously) complain about 'swarm' shows they have already lost the argument - and possibly the plot - on this one.
I believe that another survey rather contradicted those findings and suggested that Labour's advantage is little changed.
Ooh, can you give me the link please? I'm a sad old Anorak and I've been collecting analysis of the General Election. Contradictory views are good to have.
Anthony Wells had a thread on this on his Polling Report site on 15th June.
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it.
.
Bolleaux.
None of it was a waste of time, money and effort.
As a side effect, Naval Architects learned a huge amount about ship design and fire proofing that has and will save many lives. And the Soviets got a nasty wake up call - they were surprised by how much Britain managed to achieve with such relatively little, and did some serious thinking.
That is so unconvincing.
Out of interest, is your moniker after Barry Barnes? I am fairly certain I can rule out Fred Barnes.
No. I live in Barnes.
I used to live there many years ago, and drink at the Red Lion.
It's just down the road from me.
I'll look up Barry Barnes. As you may have noticed, I'm very interested in modelling - of the mathematical variety!
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it. Total cost £300m. The Argentinians may even have gone 50/50 on it.
As it was, we spent £3,000m, 255 men dead and six ships destroyed. Hard to justify in hindsight. £1m per inhabitant. One man dead (just UK) for every twelve inhabitants. Still a running sore. But it won Maggie her election.
Corbyn is basically in favour of negotiation not war. Falklands is one failed example of war. So is Palestine. And Iraq. And Libya. Northern Ireland and Iran are successful examples of negotiation. I'm sure a lot of people will agree with Corbyn. It is not necessarily a vote-loser.
I've been there. No they wouldn't. They absolutely wouldn't.
If we had fought and won the Falklands War under a Labour government, we'd likely be celebrating the victory every year with a national holiday.
The real objection to the conflict has and always will be that the 'loathed' Thatcher was involved. Nothing more.
You mean like the Orwellian Blairite New Danger Regime's national holiday to celebrate Kosovo?
Will Self on C4 News 'The problem with Labour is it has an unbridgeable gap between neoliberals on one extreme and Marxist entryists on another, the political system does not effectively allow all voices to be heard when racing for the middle ground'
Will Self is on point, tbh.
He fancies himself as an intellectual but actually talks a lot of bollocks, dressed up in pompous vocabulary.
Surprised he doesn't post here.
Applause.
Miss Miss, that boy is virtue signalling!
Now children, quiet down and listen to tonight's lesson:
If you hit a man, but you make lots of money, you should have a job at the BBC. If you carry a knife, and you are destitute, you are part of a violent criminal swarm.
That was something talked about previously in the thread by me and @Plato. I don't think it's particularly likely for the reasons given:
- That the Gang of Four had already established political careers, and risen to the top of politics, so they had nothing to lose by setting up the SDP. By contrast Ummuna, Creasy and Kendall are politically ambitious and up-and-coming, they have everything to lose and risk by going into an SDP kind of venture, and everything to gain by staying in Labour and waiting for the Corbyn Left to 'fail'. They can then have far more influence on the direction and thinking of a party with a 25% - 30% base - a base in which you can win Elections from.
- Arguably if anything, the history of the SDP send a message - that such a venture is fruitless because all it does is split the Left rather than reward anyone with anything. Not only that, but under FPTP despite the fact that the SDP gained 25% (I think? ) in vote share, they had little to show for it in parliamentary seats - where it ultimately counts. I think it was the failure of the SDP to convert their popular support into many seats that lead to, along with the election of a reforming leader in Neil Kinnock, the SDP withering away. On top of that, the SDP-Liberal alliance was not popular at all in the beginning, and it could well be the same for any LD-Labour alliance that could come from defections.
- Farron may not be the whole of the LDs, but much of his left-wing politics reflects the LD grassroots and what they want. With the Orange-Booker agenda - much more closer to Blairite thinking - dead in the water, without credibility in the LDs, and its leading figures having lost their seats - Alexander, Laws, etc - and many of the old-guard who backed it (especially Paddy Ashdown) also without any credo, it's far more likely Farron will be able to take the LDs where it he wants to.
- Blairites in particular are wedded to the idea of centralisation regarding decision-making - they won't want conference (in reference to LDs) - particularly one likely to be left-wing - to have an influence on policy.
- If anything the movements of Carswell and Reckless would also discourage Labour MPs from such defections. Carswell finds himself isolated in a party far too right-wing and populist for him, and Reckless hilariously lost his seat.
- I don't see any Labour MP defecting to the Tories - especially high-profile figures such as Umunna.
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it.
.
Bolleaux.
None of it was a waste of time, money and effort.
As a side effect, Naval Architects learned a huge amount about ship design and fire proofing that has and will save many lives. And the Soviets got a nasty wake up call - they were surprised by how much Britain managed to achieve with such relatively little, and did some serious thinking.
That is so unconvincing.
Out of interest, is your moniker after Barry Barnes? I am fairly certain I can rule out Fred Barnes.
No. I live in Barnes.
I used to live there many years ago, and drink at the Red Lion.
It's just down the road from me.
I'll look up Barry Barnes. As you may have noticed, I'm very interested in modelling - of the mathematical variety!
It was just down the road from me too - there was a pond and stuff - it was nice. And Gustav Holst's house was just round the corner.
If you keep going past that on the riverside towards Richmond, there was a pub/house with the sign 'ancient lights'.
"Talks over an €86bn bail-out for Greece have been thrown into turmoil after just four days as the International Monetary Fund said it would have no involvement in the country until it receives explicit assurances over debt sustainability.
An IMF official said the fund would withhold financial support unless it has guarantees Greece can carry out a "comprehensive" set of reforms and will be the beneficiary of debt relief from its European creditors."
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it.
.
Bolleaux.
None of it was a waste of time, money and effort.
As a side effect, Naval Architects learned a huge amount about ship design and fire proofing that has and will save many lives. And the Soviets got a nasty wake up call - they were surprised by how much Britain managed to achieve with such relatively little, and did some serious thinking.
That is so unconvincing.
Out of interest, is your moniker after Barry Barnes? I am fairly certain I can rule out Fred Barnes.
No. I live in Barnes.
I used to live there many years ago, and drink at the Red Lion.
It's just down the road from me.
I'll look up Barry Barnes. As you may have noticed, I'm very interested in modelling - of the mathematical variety!
It was just down the road from me too - there was a pond and stuff - it was nice. And Gustav Holst's house was just round the corner.
For all the usual suspects faux outrage, the Guardian's CiF bears a distinct resemblance to the D Mail comments section. Bit more erudite sure, but I doubt Dave thinks he's blown the next election by using the "s" word.
Of course he hasn't. He is shoring up the anti-foreigner vote to make up for the upcoming Mother of all Caves on Europe.
@Disraeli Why would voting Conservative demonstrate 'integration'? Surely all it demonstrates that the Tories appear to be a more inclusive party than before.
That said, it's still a minority of ethnic minorities (so to speak) that do vote Conservative.
By "integration" I mean that ethnic minorities have traditionally been identified as Labour (for several reasons) whereas politically they are no different to anybody else. No group of voters can be taken for granted. The initial pro-Labour support (for partly non-political reasons) gradually breaks down into a spread of political views based on actual political views.
In other words, you have voters escaping from identity politics into conviction politics, which is a good thing in my view.
P.S. Thanks for the link, BTW. Another bit of data to file away in my database.
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it.
.
Bolleaux.
None of it was a waste of time, money and effort.
As a side effect, Naval Architects learned a huge amount about ship design and fire proofing that has and will save many lives. And the Soviets got a nasty wake up call - they were surprised by how much Britain managed to achieve with such relatively little, and did some serious thinking.
That is so unconvincing.
Out of interest, is your moniker after Barry Barnes? I am fairly certain I can rule out Fred Barnes.
No. I live in Barnes.
I used to live there many years ago, and drink at the Red Lion.
It's just down the road from me.
I'll look up Barry Barnes. As you may have noticed, I'm very interested in modelling - of the mathematical variety!
It was just down the road from me too - there was a pond and stuff - it was nice. And Gustav Holst's house was just round the corner.
Annnnnndd the scores on the (lorry) doors tonight are......
A total of 14 suspected illegal immigrants have been found stowed away inside two separate lorries within hours of each other in Kent today as British police step up patrols to deal with the Calais crisis. This afternoon, a dozen suspected illegal immigrants were found hidden in the back of a Slovenian-registered lorry on the M20 as police carried out lorry-to-Lord searches.
@Disraeli Why would voting Conservative demonstrate 'integration'? Surely all it demonstrates that the Tories appear to be a more inclusive party than before.
That said, it's still a minority of ethnic minorities (so to speak) that do vote Conservative.
By "integration" I mean that ethnic minorities have traditionally been identified as Labour (for several reasons) whereas politically they are no different to anybody else. No group of voters can be taken for granted. The initial pro-Labour support (for partly non-political reasons) gradually breaks down into a spread of political views based on actual political views.
In other words, you have voters escaping from identity politics into conviction politics, which is a good thing in my view.
P.S. Thanks for the link, BTW. Another bit of data to file away in my database.
Serious question to the compassionate lefties on here about the "swarm" in Calais.
Let's presume we open the gates to these poor destitute people . Go on imagine we have just done that with free tickets on the Eurostar (business with meal natch!) absolutely no expense spared. How many would you let enter the UK?
Keep in mind that once the gates are open many many more would "swarm" around the tunnel so how many? 1000? 5000? 100,000...... Everyone?
.sooooo at what point would you lefties ( and dear old Tyson in his house(s) in Italy say hold on stop we cannot take anymore?
@MIkeL "Add immigration to the list already comprising abolition of the monarchy, meeting IRA after Brighton bomb, supporting Hamas - these are the policies which will be absolute killers for Lab under Corbyn.
Many of his economic policies will be popular - but as soon as the public hear the above it will be absolute dynamite - key thing is they are things which the public understands very, very easily - and they will completely drown out his economic message."
@MP-SE "Add the Falklands to that ever growing list."
I suspect a lot of younger people will not understand the jingoism at the time of the Falklands.
There are about 2,900 inhabitants of the Falkland Islands. If they had been offered £100,000 each (man, woman and child) to move to a similar island in Scotland I'm sure they would have taken it.
.
Bolleaux.
None of it was a waste of time, money and effort.
As a side effect, Naval Architects learned a huge amount about ship design and fire proofing that has and will save many lives. And the Soviets got a nasty wake up call - they were surprised by how much Britain managed to achieve with such relatively little, and did some serious thinking.
That is so unconvincing.
Out of interest, is your moniker after Barry Barnes? I am fairly certain I can rule out Fred Barnes.
No. I live in Barnes.
I used to live there many years ago, and drink at the Red Lion.
It's just down the road from me.
I'll look up Barry Barnes. As you may have noticed, I'm very interested in modelling - of the mathematical variety!
It was just down the road from me too - there was a pond and stuff - it was nice. And Gustav Holst's house was just round the corner.
Serious question to the compassionate lefties on here about the "swarm" in Calais.
Let's presume we open the gates to these poor destitute people . Go on imagine we have just done that with free tickets on the Eurostar (business with meal natch!) absolutely no expense spared. How many would you let enter the UK?
Keep in mind that once the gates are open many many more would "swarm" around the tunnel so how many? 1000? 5000? 100,000...... Everyone?
.sooooo at what point would you lefties ( and dear old Tyson in his house(s) in Italy say hold on stop we cannot take anymore?
I would have thought those scores suggest Corbyn may actually struggle.
Of course one AV election with everyone is different from 371 separate ones but on the face of it if the other 3's votes largely combine he could well be short.
He has 37% of CLP nominations. He surely needs 42% to 43% of votes in the 1st round.
For all the usual suspects faux outrage, the Guardian's CiF bears a distinct resemblance to the D Mail comments section. Bit more erudite sure, but I doubt Dave thinks he's blown the next election by using the "s" word.
What a lot of tosh about "swarm". The OED (apologies to Apocalypse) has one definition as "A large number of people or things" and provides an example "a swarm of journalists". How prescient is that?
Comments
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/24/one-million-minority-ethnic-votes-helped-tories-no-10>
British Future survey finds Labour still well ahead with black, Asian and minority ethnic voters but suggests Conservatives have broadened their appeal
One million votes from black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities helped put David Cameron back into Downing Street, according to new research into attitudes among minority voters.
Labour remains well ahead with BAME voters on 52%, finds research by the thinkthank British Future, but the gap between the two main parties is shrinking dramatically, especially among Asian voters.
The research also reveals interesting differences in party support by ethnic group, showing much higher support for the Conservatives among Asian voters than other ethnic minorities:
• Asian: 50% Labour, 38% Conservative
• Black: 67% Labour, 21% Conservative
• Mixed race: 49% Labour, 26% Conservative
Different faith groups also gave very different responses, with BAME Christians and Muslims preferring Labour to the Conservatives, but Hindus and Sikhs preferring the Conservatives to Labour:
• Christian: 56% Labour, 31% Conservative
• Muslim: 64% Labour, 25% Conservative
• Hindu: 41% Labour, 49% Conservative
• Sikh (based on a small sample): 41% Labour, 49% Conservative
The upgrade took a long time, but even browser history transfers. It was utterly without incident.
No they wouldn't.
They absolutely wouldn't.
I'm a sad old Anorak and I've been collecting analysis of the General Election. Contradictory views are good to have.
The real objection to the conflict has and always will be that the 'loathed' Thatcher was involved. Nothing more.
But I rescued it. How 'bout them Cowboys!
But of course I'm not a fan.
How many undesirables will creep into Britain tonight?
(I see Farage is suggesting the closure of the Tunnel if the incursions continue.)
"Why do we care more about Cecil the Lion than we do about the “swarm” of migrants at Calais?"
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/why-do-care-more-about-cecil-lion-we-do-about-swarm-migrants-calais
GO EAGLES !!!!!
Since I discovered the Cowboys, I now dread September, October, November and December.
I don't have to worry about January, of course.
“I’m not saying we’re going to get rid of them straight away”
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/jeremy-corbyn-interview-i-think-we-have-think-terms-disillusioned-who-didn-t-vote
I think this may be what @justin124 is talking about: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/12/are-conservatives-really-breaking-through-ethnic-m/
Our results do not support the idea of a dramatic shift in ethnic minority voting behaviour in 2015. Instead, the shifts we find among Britain's growing minority communities are the same as those found in the wider electorate in England and Wales: incremental Conservative and Labour advance, a collapse in Liberal Democrat voting, and a surge in support for minor party entrants.
There are lessons here for both Labour and the Conservatives. The Tories' efforts to appeal to minority voters do seem to be bearing some fruit, particularly among the more prosperous and middle class minorities, but the advance to date is modest and much work is still needed to "close the gap". Labour still receive the majority of ethnic minority votes, but they were unable to grow their support among minorities, despite the collapse of the Lib Dems whose opposition to the Iraq war had won them many ethnic minority votes in the mid 2000s.
Our evidence fits with other research suggesting that traditional partisan loyalties to Labour are fading away among ethnic minority voters, producing an electorate more willing to "shop around" and consider a range of other political options, including the Conservatives, the Greens and UKIP. British Future are therefore right to conclude that the ethnic minority vote is increasingly "up for grabs", even if Labour still has a large starting advantage. All parties will need to work hard to appeal for this growing and politically crucial vote in future elections, and much more targeted research is needed to understand ethnic minority voters' concerns and priorities.
@Disraeli Why would voting Conservative demonstrate 'integration'? Surely all it demonstrates that the Tories appear to be a more inclusive party than before.
That said, it's still a minority of ethnic minorities (so to speak) that do vote Conservative.
One African Lion is worth thousands of Lying Africans! *
* They are lying about being asylum seekers.
Here's a historic poster for you:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ihQN3PX96kw/S6yYielIQHI/AAAAAAAAAA8/kwvB1Oz0wRU/s1600/labour+says+he's+black+1983.jpg
And no, I will never subscribe to an historic.
The fact that they can only (ridiculously) complain about 'swarm' shows they have already lost the argument - and possibly the plot - on this one.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/page/3
Saved in MS OneNote - a microsoft product that I heartily can recommend.
I'll look up Barry Barnes. As you may have noticed, I'm very interested in modelling - of the mathematical variety!
Happy to help...
Plus people in France are not the UK's problem. Why not get residency in France and then travel legally to the UK?
Oh wait, that's nonsense.
Miss Miss, that boy is virtue signalling!
Now children, quiet down and listen to tonight's lesson:
If you hit a man, but you make lots of money, you should have a job at the BBC. If you carry a knife, and you are destitute, you are part of a violent criminal swarm.
That was something talked about previously in the thread by me and @Plato. I don't think it's particularly likely for the reasons given:
- That the Gang of Four had already established political careers, and risen to the top of politics, so they had nothing to lose by setting up the SDP. By contrast Ummuna, Creasy and Kendall are politically ambitious and up-and-coming, they have everything to lose and risk by going into an SDP kind of venture, and everything to gain by staying in Labour and waiting for the Corbyn Left to 'fail'. They can then have far more influence on the direction and thinking of a party with a 25% - 30% base - a base in which you can win Elections from.
- Arguably if anything, the history of the SDP send a message - that such a venture is fruitless because all it does is split the Left rather than reward anyone with anything. Not only that, but under FPTP despite the fact that the SDP gained 25% (I think? ) in vote share, they had little to show for it in parliamentary seats - where it ultimately counts. I think it was the failure of the SDP to convert their popular support into many seats that lead to, along with the election of a reforming leader in Neil Kinnock, the SDP withering away. On top of that, the SDP-Liberal alliance was not popular at all in the beginning, and it could well be the same for any LD-Labour alliance that could come from defections.
- Farron may not be the whole of the LDs, but much of his left-wing politics reflects the LD grassroots and what they want. With the Orange-Booker agenda - much more closer to Blairite thinking - dead in the water, without credibility in the LDs, and its leading figures having lost their seats - Alexander, Laws, etc - and many of the old-guard who backed it (especially Paddy Ashdown) also without any credo, it's far more likely Farron will be able to take the LDs where it he wants to.
- Blairites in particular are wedded to the idea of centralisation regarding decision-making - they won't want conference (in reference to LDs) - particularly one likely to be left-wing - to have an influence on policy.
- If anything the movements of Carswell and Reckless would also discourage Labour MPs from such defections. Carswell finds himself isolated in a party far too right-wing and populist for him, and Reckless hilariously lost his seat.
- I don't see any Labour MP defecting to the Tories - especially high-profile figures such as Umunna.
If you keep going past that on the riverside towards Richmond, there was a pub/house with the sign 'ancient lights'.
An IMF official said the fund would withhold financial support unless it has guarantees Greece can carry out a "comprehensive" set of reforms and will be the beneficiary of debt relief from its European creditors."
Whoops! That "deal" didn't last too long then.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11773977/Greece-crisis-escalates-as-IMF-witholds-support-for-a-new-bail-out-deal.html
O/T - Bad news relating to Camila Batmanghelidjh's charity: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33726968
In other words, you have voters escaping from identity politics into conviction politics, which is a good thing in my view.
P.S. Thanks for the link, BTW. Another bit of data to file away in my database.
A total of 14 suspected illegal immigrants have been found stowed away inside two separate lorries within hours of each other in Kent today as British police step up patrols to deal with the Calais crisis. This afternoon, a dozen suspected illegal immigrants were found hidden in the back of a Slovenian-registered lorry on the M20 as police carried out lorry-to-Lord searches.
BTW, who do you think will play at QB for the "Iggles" this season?
Jezza 136 Andy 110 Yvette 107 BWP 18
Expect Cooper to overtake Burnham for 2nd shortly
Let's presume we open the gates to these poor destitute people . Go on imagine we have just done that with free tickets on the Eurostar (business with meal natch!) absolutely no expense spared. How many would you let enter the UK?
Keep in mind that once the gates are open many many more would "swarm" around the tunnel so how many? 1000? 5000? 100,000...... Everyone?
.sooooo at what point would you lefties ( and dear old Tyson in his house(s) in Italy say hold on stop we cannot take anymore?
How many ????
Over to you......
Whatever you say + 1000.
Look at the muck in here
Maybe more relevant for Moses scores on the doors post TBF
They should be repeating over and over and over again:
"How will we win with a leader with these policies on the monarchy / Unilateral Nuclear Disarmament / IRA / Hamas / Falklands / immigration?"
The whole leadership campaign is about the economy / austerity which is 100% missing the point of what is going to hit Lab under Corbyn.
The public will disqualify him from being PM before they even hear him say a single word on the economy / austerity.
Burnham / Coooper are missing a huge open goal.
Of course one AV election with everyone is different from 371 separate ones but on the face of it if the other 3's votes largely combine he could well be short.
He has 37% of CLP nominations. He surely needs 42% to 43% of votes in the 1st round.
New Thread
Jezza Brent North, TSSA, Unison
Yvette Crawley, Hackney South, Tewksbury
Andy Bolton, Rochester and Strood
BWP "CUDDLY TOY"
NumbrCrunchrPolitics @NCPoliticsUK 2m2 minutes ago
ComRes/Mail:
CON 40 (+1)
LAB 28 (+1)
LIB 7 (-2)
UKIP 10 (-1)
GRN 5 (-1)
SNP 5 (=)
24th-26th
N=1,001
Tabs http://comres.co.uk/polls/daily-mail-political-poll/ …
#newsnight
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/swarm