@Morris_Dancer I don't think they'll be an indyref between now and 2020. I don't see Cameron, at the very least budging. Osborne is a political opportunist though, so he may well be less reluctant to have another indyref - losing Scotland means, as you say it's much harder for Labour to win an election and I can see Osborne being a far more political PM than Cameron.
The maths of Labour climbing back up to a working maj aren't in their favour for a win in 2020.
Labour are more than 90 seats behind the Tories. That's landslide territory.
So unless something fairly cataclysmic happens between now and GE2020 - they aren't going to leap that tall building in a single bound no matter how bored Joe Public are with the Tories.
Stranger things have happened before, and although Labour are 90 seats behind, the Tories have a small majority, it should be said. On top of that I think with the events I listed, there is potential for something cataclysmic to happen. I personally think Labour's best chance is make-up ground and hoping to deprive the Tories of a majority. I see a Labour win in 2025 as most likely.
Norman Smith's description of 'Blairites as a virus to whom Corbyn was the antidote' may have been medically speaking, inaccurate, but the meaning was clear. This language does not bode well for anyone left within the party deemed to be a ‘Blairite’. - It’s all getting rather ugly to be quite honestly.
@Morris_Dancer I don't think they'll be an indyref between now and 2020. I don't see Cameron, at the very least budging. Osborne is a political opportunist though, so he may well be less reluctant to have another indyref - losing Scotland means, as you say it's much harder for Labour to win an election and I can see Osborne being a far more political PM than Cameron.
The maths of Labour climbing back up to a working maj aren't in their favour for a win in 2020.
Labour are more than 90 seats behind the Tories. That's landslide territory.
So unless something fairly cataclysmic happens between now and GE2020 - they aren't going to leap that tall building in a single bound no matter how bored Joe Public are with the Tories.
Stranger things have happened before, and although Labour are 90 seats behind, the Tories have a small majority, it should be said. On top of that I think with the events I listed, there is potential for something cataclysmic to happen. I personally think Labour's best chance is make-up ground and hoping to deprive the Tories of a majority. I see a Labour win in 2025 as most likely.
@Morris_Dancer I don't think they'll be an indyref between now and 2020. I don't see Cameron, at the very least budging. Osborne is a political opportunist though, so he may well be less reluctant to have another indyref - losing Scotland means, as you say it's much harder for Labour to win an election and I can see Osborne being a far more political PM than Cameron.
The maths of Labour climbing back up to a working maj aren't in their favour for a win in 2020.
Labour are more than 90 seats behind the Tories. That's landslide territory.
So unless something fairly cataclysmic happens between now and GE2020 - they aren't going to leap that tall building in a single bound no matter how bored Joe Public are with the Tories.
Stranger things have happened before, and although Labour are 90 seats behind, the Tories have a small majority, it should be said. On top of that I think with the events I listed, there is potential for something cataclysmic to happen. I personally think Labour's best chance is make-up ground and hoping to deprive the Tories of a majority. I see a Labour win in 2025 as most likely.
Nah. Labour were a 150 seats behind the Tories in 1987.
2 elections/ten years later Labour were ahead by nearly 160 seats.
The Gang of Four set up a whole new Party - the SDP, it was only much later after Labour got their marbles back that it withered away, and merged with the Liberal Party.
As I said, Farron isn't the whole LD Party - he's not as far Left as Jezza being my premise. I could see a couple of Labour MPs trying to force some issues by doing so. Afterall, we had Carswell and Voldemort move to the Kippers to make a principled point/feel more at home.
I know the history behind the gang of four: that's my whole point. That the Gang of Four had already established political careers, and risen to the top of politics, so they had nothing to lose by setting up the SDP. By contrast Ummuna, Creasy and Kendall are politically ambitious and up-and-coming, they have everything to lose and risk by going into an SDP kind of venture, and everything to gain by staying in Labour and waiting for the Corbyn Left to 'fail'. They can then have far more influence on the direction and thinking of a party with a 25% - 30% base - a base in which you can win Elections from.
Arguably if anything, the history of the SDP send a message - that such a venture is fruitless because all it does is split the Left rather than reward anyone with anything. Not only that, but under FPTP despite the fact that the SDP gained 25% (I think? ) in vote share, they had little to show for it in parliamentary seats - where it ultimately counts. I think it was the failure of the SDP to convert their popular support into many seats that lead to, along with the election of a reforming leader in Neil Kinnock, the SDP withering away. On top of that, the SDP-Liberal alliance was not popular at all in the beginning, and it could well be the same for any LD-Labour alliance that could come from defections.
Farron may not be the whole of the LDs, but much of his left-wing politics reflects the LD grassroots and what they want. With the Orange-Booker agenda - much more closer to Blairite thinking - dead in the water, without credibility in the LDs, and its leading figures having lost their seats - Alexander, Laws, etc - and many of the old-guard who backed it (especially Paddy Ashdown) also without any credo, it's far more likely Farron will be able to take the LDs where it he wants to.
If anything the movements of Carswell and Reckless would also discourage Labour MPs from such defections. Carswell finds himself isolated in a party far too right-wing and populist for him, and Reckless hilariously lost his seat.
@Morris_Dancer I don't think they'll be an indyref between now and 2020. I don't see Cameron, at the very least budging. Osborne is a political opportunist though, so he may well be less reluctant to have another indyref - losing Scotland means, as you say it's much harder for Labour to win an election and I can see Osborne being a far more political PM than Cameron.
The maths of Labour climbing back up to a working maj aren't in their favour for a win in 2020.
Labour are more than 90 seats behind the Tories. That's landslide territory.
So unless something fairly cataclysmic happens between now and GE2020 - they aren't going to leap that tall building in a single bound no matter how bored Joe Public are with the Tories.
Stranger things have happened before, and although Labour are 90 seats behind, the Tories have a small majority, it should be said. On top of that I think with the events I listed, there is potential for something cataclysmic to happen. I personally think Labour's best chance is make-up ground and hoping to deprive the Tories of a majority. I see a Labour win in 2025 as most likely.
The Gang of Four set up a whole new Party - the SDP, it was only much later after Labour got their marbles back that it withered away, and merged with the Liberal Party.
As I said, Farron isn't the whole LD Party - he's not as far Left as Jezza being my premise. I could see a couple of Labour MPs trying to force some issues by doing so. Afterall, we had Carswell and Voldemort move to the Kippers to make a principled point/feel more at home.
The Gang of Four set up a whole new Party - the SDP, it was only much later after Labour got their marbles back that it withered away, and merged with the Liberal Party.
As I said, Farron isn't the whole LD Party - he's not as far Left as Jezza being my premise. I could see a couple of Labour MPs trying to force some issues by doing so. Afterall, we had Carswell and Voldemort move to the Kippers to make a principled point/feel more at home.
The Gang of Four set up a whole new Party - the SDP, it was only much later after Labour got their marbles back that it withered away, and merged with the Liberal Party.
As I said, Farron isn't the whole LD Party - he's not as far Left as Jezza being my premise. I could see a couple of Labour MPs trying to force some issues by doing so. Afterall, we had Carswell and Voldemort move to the Kippers to make a principled point/feel more at home.
Reckless hilariously lost his seat.
Always worth reposting those words.
I can't remember that.
Do you have any video footage of him losing his seat?
@Morris_Dancer I don't think they'll be an indyref between now and 2020. I don't see Cameron, at the very least budging. Osborne is a political opportunist though, so he may well be less reluctant to have another indyref - losing Scotland means, as you say it's much harder for Labour to win an election and I can see Osborne being a far more political PM than Cameron.
The maths of Labour climbing back up to a working maj aren't in their favour for a win in 2020.
Labour are more than 90 seats behind the Tories. That's landslide territory.
So unless something fairly cataclysmic happens between now and GE2020 - they aren't going to leap that tall building in a single bound no matter how bored Joe Public are with the Tories.
Stranger things have happened before, and although Labour are 90 seats behind, the Tories have a small majority, it should be said. On top of that I think with the events I listed, there is potential for something cataclysmic to happen. I personally think Labour's best chance is make-up ground and hoping to deprive the Tories of a majority. I see a Labour win in 2025 as most likely.
By 2020, it is quite possible that the LibDems will regain 10 or more seats from the Tories as they rebound from their low point. It is also possible that Labour will regain 30 or so seats from the SNP as the SNP come off the boil and SLAB gets its act together. So Labour in E&W are looking at overturning a majority of 50. That means gaining 25 Tory seats. No impossible for the reasons Apocalypse gives. That is to get more seats than the Tories.
But the Tories only need to lose 6 seasts to lose their majority. LibDems could do that without any help from Labour - except for tactical voting.
@BBCNormanS: Unhappy Blairites say leadership contest now "a battle for soul of the Labour party"
If thats the case then maybe the Blairites might want to actually start fighting, as theres not much of it from them at the moment.
Or failing that, signing up party members...
thats the problem isn't it. No one would say the left/far left aren't passionate. They're actually working to win this.
It's a crazy set-up opening up the voting pool, and always going to attract the loonies.
But it was the Blairites who wanted the system because they thought less politically-interested, more "moderate" people would sign up to vote. Could it not be that Blairite politics simply doesn't have the purchase even on "moderate" people that they expected?
Yes and No. If by blairite you mean the 'centre' then I expect that like most people they don't really engage with politics in any great level or number most of the time.
If that was the aim then it was utterly misguided, looking at it now, it's obvious that the more 'politically minded' ie the activiest left were going to be more engerised than the more dis-engaged masses.
Well, I don't really. Today's Blairites like Kendall have a weird policy mix of almost wholesale acceptance of Tory economics, evangelism about the EU, and an obsession with marketising public services and "devolving power". Even though there's no evidence at all that this would succeed in winning elections -- indeed, the Lib Dems just stood on a very similar platform, and they got routed.
Yes, I agree, and I voted for 95% of the Blair agenda and subscribe to Progress magazine. Blair had (indeed has) an interesting concept in his domestic policy for society with strong progressive elements mixed with privatisation. Blairism without Blair seems to be directionless, and if they pitch their argument as a battle for the soul of the party, they certainly won't win.
But I don't expect any great purge from the left if they win. Corbyn is not Stalinist in any way, shape or form - his modus operandi is patient persuasion.
When either side is 100 seats or so behind, a recovery within 3 Parlies or 15yrs hasn't happened.
Hence my scepticism of a Labour victory in GE2020. GE2025 looks much more likely.
Tbf, it's eighteen years because not all of the terms were five years (1979-83 is four years, 1983-87 is four years, 87-92 is five years, 92-97 is five years). If it's five years after 2020, it'll be 2025 which will be the end of the Tories' third term. Usually (with 1979-97 as an exception) by the third term governments were voted out of office. Even 1997-2010 demonstrates this - and within a period of fifteen years, too.
I also did say that I saw 2025 as most likely, but I'm not holding out hope for 2020
BBC – “An investigation into a number of allegations of crime involving the children's charity Kids Company has been launched by the Metropolitan Police, the BBC has learned.
The inquiry is being led by the complex case team of the Sexual Offences, Exploitation and Child Abuse Command.”
This is a new twist, I thought the problems were with its finances?
Does anyone know regarding the cricket with Aus 7 down and only a small lead if England can request the extra half hour if they think they can skittle the Aussies out and overcome the lead in the half hour? Or do we have to be in our innings already to request it?
What a lot of things are under lurking under this stone. One wonders where it will go next.
We've had mass resignations by director level staff, allegations of financial incompetence/misspending of funds and now this. Perhaps we won't see the great fruitbowl on QT again for a while to come
BBC – “An investigation into a number of allegations of crime involving the children's charity Kids Company has been launched by the Metropolitan Police, the BBC has learned.
The inquiry is being led by the complex case team of the Sexual Offences, Exploitation and Child Abuse Command.”
This is a new twist, I thought the problems were with its finances?
Does anyone know regarding the cricket with Aus 7 down and only a small lead if England can request the extra half hour if they think they can skittle the Aussies out and overcome the lead in the half hour? Or do we have to be in our innings already to request it?
It's in no-one's interest to all come back for 15 minutes tomorrow.
Does anyone know regarding the cricket with Aus 7 down and only a small lead if England can request the extra half hour if they think they can skittle the Aussies out and overcome the lead in the half hour? Or do we have to be in our innings already to request it?
It's in no-one's interest to all come back for 15 minutes tomorrow.
I agree, I just wondered if the rules or any convention would preclude the extra half hour if a change in innings was required. A change of innings is equivalent to two overs normally and there's 15 an hour normally so I don't see why it should ...
The Gang of Four set up a whole new Party - the SDP, it was only much later after Labour got their marbles back that it withered away, and merged with the Liberal Party.
As I said, Farron isn't the whole LD Party - he's not as far Left as Jezza being my premise. I could see a couple of Labour MPs trying to force some issues by doing so. Afterall, we had Carswell and Voldemort move to the Kippers to make a principled point/feel more at home.
Farron may not be the whole of the LDs, but much of his left-wing politics reflects the LD grassroots and what they want. With the Orange-Booker agenda - much more closer to Blairite thinking - dead in the water, without credibility in the LDs, and its leading figures having lost their seats - Alexander, Laws, etc - and many of the old-guard who backed it (especially Paddy Ashdown) also without any credo, it's far more likely Farron will be able to take the LDs where it he wants to.
If anything the movements of Carswell and Reckless would also discourage Labour MPs from such defections. Carswell finds himself isolated in a party far too right-wing and populist for him, and Reckless hilariously lost his seat.
Farron will undoubtably set the tone, and LDs are respectful listeners, but the LDs have much more of the policy set by the conference than other parties, where the conferences are rallies rather than decision making bodies.
I cannot see Kendall, Creasy and Umunna splitting, but they may form an internal caucus in the PLP, and that may well help them agree a coherent platform. Corbyn cannot realistically expect disciplined parliamentary whipping with his voting record.
My leftist friends do seem very keen on ending privatisation of NHS and other services. Corbyn appeals to them for this reason, even when they have doubts on other issues. Kendall and co could do well by spending some time on policies that make public services more consumer responsive yet state run. That would redefine the difference between Centrist Labour and the Tories. It would be a vote winner too.
Yes, I agree, and I voted for 95% of the Blair agenda and subscribe to Progress magazine. Blair had (indeed has) an interesting concept in his domestic policy for society with strong progressive elements mixed with privatisation. Blairism without Blair seems to be directionless, and if they pitch their argument as a battle for the soul of the party, they certainly won't win.
But I don't expect any great purge from the left if they win. Corbyn is not Stalinist in any way, shape or form - his modus operandi is patient persuasion.
I think that's the case with a lot of influential leaders. Thatcherism without Thatcher actually leading the Tories wasn't the same, even 'Brownism' without Gordon Brown seems pretty useless. It's because they reflect and are a product of their age - to carry these ideologies in their exact form, into different times where circumstances have changed is a fruitless exercise. The whole progressive-market forces things is nowhere near as much as a dividing line as it was in 1997 - the Tories are doing it now (although they seem to see market forces as almost a default option for public services), and it occurred under Major and Thatcher. If anything it's an issue all the main parties seem to agree on (I say that, the SNP probably disagree).
Blairites, ironically given Kendall's statements about looking to the future - are still living in 1997, and think a 'new dawn has broken'.
The Gang of Four set up a whole new Party - the SDP, it was only much later after Labour got their marbles back that it withered away, and merged with the Liberal Party.
As I said, Farron isn't the whole LD Party - he's not as far Left as Jezza being my premise. I could see a couple of Labour MPs trying to force some issues by doing so. Afterall, we had Carswell and Voldemort move to the Kippers to make a principled point/feel more at home.
The Gang of Four set up a whole new Party - the SDP, it was only much later after Labour got their marbles back that it withered away, and merged with the Liberal Party.
As I said, Farron isn't the whole LD Party - he's not as far Left as Jezza being my premise. I could see a couple of Labour MPs trying to force some issues by doing so. Afterall, we had Carswell and Voldemort move to the Kippers to make a principled point/feel more at home.
Reckless hilariously lost his seat.
Always worth reposting those words.
I can't remember that.
Do you have any video footage of him losing his seat?
I worked to 1.30am last night to get to the coverage of Tim Aker & Vince losing their seats which is circa 5am... perhaps I'll work late tonight to try and experience that little piece of history again
.@GeorgeGalloway tells @IainDale that if Jeremy Corbyn wins the Labour leadership he'd return to the party "pretty damn quick"
Good Lord! Is there an official Labour exorcism liturgy for such cases of people who have run against official candidates? What did Red Ken have to do?
.@GeorgeGalloway tells @IainDale that if Jeremy Corbyn wins the Labour leadership he'd return to the party "pretty damn quick"
Good Lord! Is there an official Labour exorcism liturgy for such cases of people who have run against official candidates? What did Red Ken have to do?
The Gang of Four set up a whole new Party - the SDP, it was only much later after Labour got their marbles back that it withered away, and merged with the Liberal Party.
As I said, Farron isn't the whole LD Party - he's not as far Left as Jezza being my premise. I could see a couple of Labour MPs trying to force some issues by doing so. Afterall, we had Carswell and Voldemort move to the Kippers to make a principled point/feel more at home.
Reckless hilariously lost his seat.
Always worth reposting those words.
I can't remember that.
Do you have any video footage of him losing his seat?
I worked to 1.30am last night to get to the coverage of Tim Aker & Vince losing their seats which is circa 5am... perhaps I'll work late tonight to try and experience that little piece of history again
Just thought I'd slip this in.... youtu.be/9EYUkV-SHFw?t=4m50s
When was the last time a Test match involving England reached the final session on the fifth day without any rain or bad light delays? Slow down, boys!
The Gang of Four set up a whole new Party - the SDP, it was only much later after Labour got their marbles back that it withered away, and merged with the Liberal Party.
As I said, Farron isn't the whole LD Party - he's not as far Left as Jezza being my premise. I could see a couple of Labour MPs trying to force some issues by doing so. Afterall, we had Carswell and Voldemort move to the Kippers to make a principled point/feel more at home.
Farron may not be the whole of the LDs, but much of his left-wing politics reflects the LD grassroots and what they want. With the Orange-Booker agenda - much more closer to Blairite thinking - dead in the water, without credibility in the LDs, and its leading figures having lost their seats - Alexander, Laws, etc - and many of the old-guard who backed it (especially Paddy Ashdown) also without any credo, it's far more likely Farron will be able to take the LDs where it he wants to.
If anything the movements of Carswell and Reckless would also discourage Labour MPs from such defections. Carswell finds himself isolated in a party far too right-wing and populist for him, and Reckless hilariously lost his seat.
Farron will undoubtably set the tone, and LDs are respectful listeners, but the LDs have much more of the policy set by the conference than other parties, where the conferences are rallies rather than decision making bodies.
I cannot see Kendall, Creasy and Umunna splitting, but they may form an internal caucus in the PLP, and that may well help them agree a coherent platform. Corbyn cannot realistically expect disciplined parliamentary whipping with his voting record.
My leftist friends do seem very keen on ending privatisation of NHS and other services. Corbyn appeals to them for this reason, even when they have doubts on other issues. Kendall and co could do well by spending some time on policies that make public services more consumer responsive yet state run. That would redefine the difference between Centrist Labour and the Tories. It would be a vote winner too.
That's a good point on the LDs regarding policy - but even then, that factor makes it more so than Blairites and the Labour Right in general will not be inclined to defect to the LDs. Blairites in particular are wedded to the idea of centralisation regarding decision-making - they won't want conference - particularly one likely to be left-wing - to have an influence on policy.
I agree with you r.e. Kendall, Umunna and Creasy forming an internal caucus within Labour - I think that's exactly what will happen. With this group, the fightback will probably start from the moment they say Corbyn (if he does) has won the Labour leadership.
Also your public service idea is fantastic. If Labour had any common sense, they'd opt for this....
150 migrants getting through each night doesn't sound like a lot, but if it happens every day for a year it adds up to nearly 55,000. That's more than half of Cameron's immigration target which includes legal immigrants.
Just on 'swarm': there were over a thousand trying to get into the Tunnel. They've been marauding around lorries with knives and other weapons. 'Swarm' is fine.
Saw a smidgen of BBC News and was surprised to see Norman Smith suggesting there could be civil war in Labour following the description by one union or other of Blairites as a virus to whom Corbyn was the antidote (also, I believe viruses don't have antidotes, but that's another matter).
Get the SAS in there instead of sitting eating doughnuts back at base, rumble them up and annoy the Frenchies.
Just on 'swarm': there were over a thousand trying to get into the Tunnel. They've been marauding around lorries with knives and other weapons. 'Swarm' is fine.
Saw a smidgen of BBC News and was surprised to see Norman Smith suggesting there could be civil war in Labour following the description by one union or other of Blairites as a virus to whom Corbyn was the antidote (also, I believe viruses don't have antidotes, but that's another matter).
Get the SAS in there instead of sitting eating doughnuts back at base, rumble them up and annoy the Frenchies.
It can't be.. Malcolm agreeing with the PB Tory idea of sending in the troops?
With that and England winning the cricket, must be dreaming....
It all rather depends on what a Corbyn party looks like - if it's what his followers think then there's going to be a whole range of issues where huge swathes of the parliamentary party (and membership, despite current appearances) just can't agree with him and will have to vehemently oppose. Even if they wanted to defence and foreign policy would keep most big Labour figures out of any Corbyn cabinet and would make them extremely vocal, you'd effectively have a permanently split party as anyone within the sensible wing of the party going on the Sunday Politics and having to defend say, where £90bn for some plan is coming from or leaving NATO would look utterly idiotic. The main option would be to sulk on the backbenches and wait for Corbyn to self destruct, but there'd be so many it'd effectively create a shadow shadow cabinet who'd be a constant target of those who're currently calling anyone who doesn't swallow their agenda whole a Tory (and more importantly, those who're knowingly whipping that sentiment up). Labour MPs won't join the Lib Dems - they're profoundly disliked due to the old Rennard election tactics anyway and rightly or wrongly see the Lib Dems as indirect contributors to the current nadir by running to the left of Labour then gleefully piling it on from the right in 2010. A new party would also be tremendously foolhardy - what would its constituency be with Corbyn Labour sucking up the anti-austerity vote, the Lib Dems competing for centrists and UKIP hoovering up working class votes? That's not to mention the fact that Osborne's made perfectly clear he's prepared to play gesture politics to appeal to the centre.
I'd have thought, strangely against over inflated hard leftism, the answer would be to do a Ken Livingstone. When an issue of principle comes up resign the whip (or eventually with some private polling and ground work, your seat), or wait until those among Corbyn's team who are that way inclined get purgey and stand/sit as independent Labour, eventually forming a caucus of MPs who'd appear fresh and principled and independent. If Corbyn wins, the first battle is to restore the party to sanity so everything becomes about that. Eventually it would be a case of enough's enough and the naive soft left, who will be the ones to install Corbyn if he gets in, will drift away as he becomes old hat and his nastier travellers show that side. If the party doesn't come to its senses, then by 2020 you'd probably think what's the point anyway? I'll do a job and be a councillor, or try and explain in The Guardian why Owen Jones is an idiot even if you are left-wing.
This wasn’t supposed to happen, he was the token clown ffs, it was theirs for the taking, now Burnham and Cooper have been struck dumb by the swarm of support for Corbyn. Tragic.
They were dummies long before they saw the support of real people unfolding. Absolutely hilarious.
Just on 'swarm': there were over a thousand trying to get into the Tunnel. They've been marauding around lorries with knives and other weapons. 'Swarm' is fine.
Saw a smidgen of BBC News and was surprised to see Norman Smith suggesting there could be civil war in Labour following the description by one union or other of Blairites as a virus to whom Corbyn was the antidote (also, I believe viruses don't have antidotes, but that's another matter).
Get the SAS in there instead of sitting eating doughnuts back at base, rumble them up and annoy the Frenchies.
It can't be.. Malcolm agreeing with the PB Tory idea of sending in the troops?
With that and England winning the cricket, must be dreaming....
Fixed bayonets as well Rob, time it was sorted out and these desperado's were shown the error of their ways, meanwhile Fatman and Boy Blunder should get on the statute books that no benefits are available in Britain , the shop is closed.
Note: Not all SNP are left wing. I am right wing with a heart, but no chancers.
150 migrants getting through each night doesn't sound like a lot, but if it happens every day for a year it adds up to nearly 55,000. That's more than half of Cameron's immigration target which includes legal immigrants.</blockquote
The FT thinks Amazon paid $250 million for Clarkson and co. to make 36 episodes.
Does that include production costs? If so, $8m an episode is by no means unprecedented - the West Wing was that sort of price and that was 15 years ago. (Friends, where the six main actors pocketed $1m a piece per episode, must also be comfortably above that level.)
The FT thinks Amazon paid $250 million for Clarkson and co. to make 36 episodes.
But for every pair of eyeballs that watch an episode, Amazon will get $99. As a method for boosting Prime membership, they have hit this out of the park.
The FT thinks Amazon paid $250 million for Clarkson and co. to make 36 episodes.
But for every pair of eyeballs that watch an episode, Amazon will get $99. As a method for boosting Prime membership, they have hit this out of the park.
The FT thinks Amazon paid $250 million for Clarkson and co. to make 36 episodes.
Does that include production costs? If so, $8m an episode is by no means unprecedented - the West Wing was that sort of price and that was 15 years ago. (Friends, where the six main actors pocketed $1m a piece per episode, must also be comfortably above that level.)
I believe it includes the production. Cost wise it is on par with Game of Thrones. It would be one of the most expensive "factual" programmes ever, and certainly raises the bar for programming originating on the net.
""In England you get everything easily. Here in Europe I can go everywhere because I have refugee document for three years. But I don't get job or school in Europe, just in England."
150 migrants getting through each night doesn't sound like a lot, but if it happens every day for a year it adds up to nearly 55,000. That's more than half of Cameron's immigration target which includes legal immigrants.
I hope Britain is deporting them straight back,if not,it's a bloody disgrace.
The FT thinks Amazon paid $250 million for Clarkson and co. to make 36 episodes.
But for every pair of eyeballs that watch an episode, Amazon will get $99. As a method for boosting Prime membership, they have hit this out of the park.
The FT thinks Amazon paid $250 million for Clarkson and co. to make 36 episodes.
But for every pair of eyeballs that watch an episode, Amazon will get $99. As a method for boosting Prime membership, they have hit this out of the park.
The last candidate who would bring unity is Kendall the left clearly loathe her and she would go down like a lead balloon in Scotland, not that she has any chance anyway. Even if she came last that would not necessarily be fatal either, Clarke was the most centrist candidate in 2005 and came last.
I think I am leaning to 1 Burnham, 2 Kendall, 3 Corbyn, 4 Cooper
Farron may not be the whole of the LDs, but much of his left-wing politics reflects the LD grassroots and what they want. With the Orange-Booker agenda - much more closer to Blairite thinking - dead in the water, without credibility in the LDs, and its leading figures having lost their seats - Alexander, Laws, etc - and many of the old-guard who backed it (especially Paddy Ashdown) also without any credo, it's far more likely Farron will be able to take the LDs where it he wants to.
If anything the movements of Carswell and Reckless would also discourage Labour MPs from such defections. Carswell finds himself isolated in a party far too right-wing and populist for him, and Reckless hilariously lost his seat.
Farron will undoubtably set the tone, and LDs are respectful listeners, but the LDs have much more of the policy set by the conference than other parties, where the conferences are rallies rather than decision making bodies.
I cannot see Kendall, Creasy and Umunna splitting, but they may form an internal caucus in the PLP, and that may well help them agree a coherent platform. Corbyn cannot realistically expect disciplined parliamentary whipping with his voting record.
My leftist friends do seem very keen on ending privatisation of NHS and other services. Corbyn appeals to them for this reason, even when they have doubts on other issues. Kendall and co could do well by spending some time on policies that make public services more consumer responsive yet state run. That would redefine the difference between Centrist Labour and the Tories. It would be a vote winner too.
That's a good point on the LDs regarding policy - but even then, that factor makes it more so than Blairites and the Labour Right in general will not be inclined to defect to the LDs. Blairites in particular are wedded to the idea of centralisation regarding decision-making - they won't want conference - particularly one likely to be left-wing - to have an influence on policy.
I agree with you r.e. Kendall, Umunna and Creasy forming an internal caucus within Labour - I think that's exactly what will happen. With this group, the fightback will probably start from the moment they say Corbyn (if he does) has won the Labour leadership.
Also your public service idea is fantastic. If Labour had any common sense, they'd opt for this....
If Corbyn wins the Kendallites would take much the same position the Portillistas did when IDS won the Tory leadership
"Kinnock still holds iconic status" - what planet are you on. Here is a man who plucked defeat from the jaws of success after which he gorged himself from the Brussels trough. His is a toxic brand and anyone with aspiration should avoid him like the plague.
@Morris_Dancer I don't think they'll be an indyref between now and 2020. I don't see Cameron, at the very least budging. Osborne is a political opportunist though, so he may well be less reluctant to have another indyref - losing Scotland means, as you say it's much harder for Labour to win an election and I can see Osborne being a far more political PM than Cameron.
The maths of Labour climbing back up to a working maj aren't in their favour for a win in 2020.
Labour are more than 90 seats behind the Tories. That's landslide territory.
So unless something fairly cataclysmic happens between now and GE2020 - they aren't going to leap that tall building in a single bound no matter how bored Joe Public are with the Tories.
Stranger things have happened before, and although Labour are 90 seats behind, the Tories have a small majority, it should be said. On top of that I think with the events I listed, there is potential for something cataclysmic to happen. I personally think Labour's best chance is make-up ground and hoping to deprive the Tories of a majority. I see a Labour win in 2025 as most likely.
If Osborne is the PM who loses Scotland he would have it etched on his tombstone, he would be the Lord North of the early 21st century, all his achievements as Chancellor and any election he won would be overshadowed for ever in the history books, that was why Cameron put so much effort into BT in the closing stages of indyref. Osborne is a historian, he does not wan that fate and seems a strong unionist to me, hence his giving more powers to English regions alongside the powers given to Scotland
Hey calum, apparently there's been a phone poll in Orkney & Shetland - but I don't know who paid for it, or what the result was. Have you heard anything?
The FT thinks Amazon paid $250 million for Clarkson and co. to make 36 episodes.
But for every pair of eyeballs that watch an episode, Amazon will get $99. As a method for boosting Prime membership, they have hit this out of the park.
When the BBC don't spend lots of money, they are stupid for missing out on worldwide opportunities.
When the BBC do spend lots of money, they are wasteful for doling out licence payers' cash to talent.
On working with Amazon and the $250m contract, Jeremy Clarkson said: "I feel like I've climbed out of a bi-plane and into a spaceship."
I seem to recall their office, when filming all the test drives etc at the airfield, was a porto-cabin, next door to a large hangar. I think they can now afford to splash out on a gold plated kettle and three new coffee mugs.
When the BBC don't spend lots of money, they are stupid for missing out on worldwide opportunities.
When the BBC do spend lots of money, they are wasteful for doling out licence payers' cash to talent.
On working with Amazon and the $250m contract, Jeremy Clarkson said: "I feel like I've climbed out of a bi-plane and into a spaceship."
I seem to recall their office, when filming all the test drives etc at the airfield, was a porto-cabin, next door to a large hangar. I think they can now afford to splash out on a gold plated kettle and three new coffee mugs.
Well there is no doubt any more that the BBC is a wealth creator.
The FT thinks Amazon paid $250 million for Clarkson and co. to make 36 episodes.
But for every pair of eyeballs that watch an episode, Amazon will get $99. As a method for boosting Prime membership, they have hit this out of the park.
The issue of swarming illegal immigrants is catching the attention of a lot of people who otherwise care little for what is going on in the world. 5 years of inaction will do wonders for the Conservative's slim majority.
I imagine it won't do Labour much good who seem to care more about the use of the word swarm than they do the safety of lorry drivers and tourists.
The FT thinks Amazon paid $250 million for Clarkson and co. to make 36 episodes.
But for every pair of eyeballs that watch an episode, Amazon will get $99. As a method for boosting Prime membership, they have hit this out of the park.
I'm happy - already a Prime member
A lot of those pairs of eyeballs will pirate it
You have the morals of a Minnesota dentist
You gonna take that lion down, Rob?
He's waiting for the mane event, to ensure he has the rights claws in his contract.....
The FT thinks Amazon paid $250 million for Clarkson and co. to make 36 episodes.
But for every pair of eyeballs that watch an episode, Amazon will get $99. As a method for boosting Prime membership, they have hit this out of the park.
I'm happy - already a Prime member
A lot of those pairs of eyeballs will pirate it
You have the morals of a Minnesota dentist
You gonna take that lion down, Rob?
He's waiting for the mane event, to ensure he has the rights claws in his contract.....
The FT thinks Amazon paid $250 million for Clarkson and co. to make 36 episodes.
But for every pair of eyeballs that watch an episode, Amazon will get $99. As a method for boosting Prime membership, they have hit this out of the park.
I'm happy - already a Prime member
A lot of those pairs of eyeballs will pirate it
You have the morals of a Minnesota dentist
You gonna take that lion down, Rob?
He's waiting for the mane event, to ensure he has the rights claws in his contract.....
Comments
Tories 1979 -1997 = 18yrs
Labour 1997 - 2010 = 17yrs
When either side is 100 seats or so behind, a recovery within 3 Parlies or 15yrs hasn't happened.
Hence my scepticism of a Labour victory in GE2020. GE2025 looks much more likely.
Edited extra bit: 13*, rather than 17 years of Labour.
2 elections/ten years later Labour were ahead by nearly 160 seats.
Arguably if anything, the history of the SDP send a message - that such a venture is fruitless because all it does is split the Left rather than reward anyone with anything. Not only that, but under FPTP despite the fact that the SDP gained 25% (I think? ) in vote share, they had little to show for it in parliamentary seats - where it ultimately counts. I think it was the failure of the SDP to convert their popular support into many seats that lead to, along with the election of a reforming leader in Neil Kinnock, the SDP withering away. On top of that, the SDP-Liberal alliance was not popular at all in the beginning, and it could well be the same for any LD-Labour alliance that could come from defections.
Farron may not be the whole of the LDs, but much of his left-wing politics reflects the LD grassroots and what they want. With the Orange-Booker agenda - much more closer to Blairite thinking - dead in the water, without credibility in the LDs, and its leading figures having lost their seats - Alexander, Laws, etc - and many of the old-guard who backed it (especially Paddy Ashdown) also without any credo, it's far more likely Farron will be able to take the LDs where it he wants to.
If anything the movements of Carswell and Reckless would also discourage Labour MPs from such defections. Carswell finds himself isolated in a party far too right-wing and populist for him, and Reckless hilariously lost his seat.
Enjoying this immensely!
And still 13 ovs to go...
Do you have any video footage of him losing his seat?
But the Tories only need to lose 6 seasts to lose their majority. LibDems could do that without any help from Labour - except for tactical voting.
But I don't expect any great purge from the left if they win. Corbyn is not Stalinist in any way, shape or form - his modus operandi is patient persuasion.
I also did say that I saw 2025 as most likely, but I'm not holding out hope for 2020
The inquiry is being led by the complex case team of the Sexual Offences, Exploitation and Child Abuse Command.”
This is a new twist, I thought the problems were with its finances?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33726968
It's possible I'll get another 70/1 tip right in F1, but I'll believe it when I see it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gang_of_Four_(band)
We've had mass resignations by director level staff, allegations of financial incompetence/misspending of funds and now this. Perhaps we won't see the great fruitbowl on QT again for a while to come
I cannot see Kendall, Creasy and Umunna splitting, but they may form an internal caucus in the PLP, and that may well help them agree a coherent platform. Corbyn cannot realistically expect disciplined parliamentary whipping with his voting record.
My leftist friends do seem very keen on ending privatisation of NHS and other services. Corbyn appeals to them for this reason, even when they have doubts on other issues. Kendall and co could do well by spending some time on policies that make public services more consumer responsive yet state run. That would redefine the difference between Centrist Labour and the Tories. It would be a vote winner too.
Blairites, ironically given Kendall's statements about looking to the future - are still living in 1997, and think a 'new dawn has broken'.
Matthew Harris @hattmarris84
.@GeorgeGalloway tells @IainDale that if Jeremy Corbyn wins the Labour leadership he'd return to the party "pretty damn quick"
I agree with you r.e. Kendall, Umunna and Creasy forming an internal caucus within Labour - I think that's exactly what will happen. With this group, the fightback will probably start from the moment they say Corbyn (if he does) has won the Labour leadership.
Also your public service idea is fantastic. If Labour had any common sense, they'd opt for this....
https://iconicphotos.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/6a00d83451586c69e200e5518c0cef8833-800wi.jpg
Jesus Christ....
https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/621227733046013952
With that and England winning the cricket, must be dreaming....
I'd have thought, strangely against over inflated hard leftism, the answer would be to do a Ken Livingstone. When an issue of principle comes up resign the whip (or eventually with some private polling and ground work, your seat), or wait until those among Corbyn's team who are that way inclined get purgey and stand/sit as independent Labour, eventually forming a caucus of MPs who'd appear fresh and principled and independent. If Corbyn wins, the first battle is to restore the party to sanity so everything becomes about that. Eventually it would be a case of enough's enough and the naive soft left, who will be the ones to install Corbyn if he gets in, will drift away as he becomes old hat and his nastier travellers show that side. If the party doesn't come to its senses, then by 2020 you'd probably think what's the point anyway? I'll do a job and be a councillor, or try and explain in The Guardian why Owen Jones is an idiot even if you are left-wing.
Note: Not all SNP are left wing. I am right wing with a heart, but no chancers.
I'm happy - already a Prime member
When the BBC do spend lots of money, they are wasteful for doling out licence payers' cash to talent.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11772262/Calais-illegal-immigrants-crisis-live.html
""In England you get everything easily. Here in Europe I can go everywhere because I have refugee document for three years. But I don't get job or school in Europe, just in England."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11772262/Calais-illegal-immigrants-crisis-live.html
I think I am leaning to 1 Burnham, 2 Kendall, 3 Corbyn, 4 Cooper
https://www.google.com/search?q=bettertogether++patronising&biw=1013&bih=520&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0CAgQ_AUoA2oVChMI4KWzh7yDxwIV52jbCh3-jwGe#imgrc=Zykbg8vXta4D0M:
I seem to recall their office, when filming all the test drives etc at the airfield, was a porto-cabin, next door to a large hangar. I think they can now afford to splash out on a gold plated kettle and three new coffee mugs.
I imagine it won't do Labour much good who seem to care more about the use of the word swarm than they do the safety of lorry drivers and tourists.
https://twitter.com/odd_miliband
Surely no-one ever looked less like PM material?
Would they for Corbyn?