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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don Brind says he’s voting for party unity by putting Liz Kendall first
Just as Kendall has been told she’s a Tory I was told “You should go and join the SDP”. It was wounding – the more so because it came from a friend. It was the 80s and we were on opposite sides of one of the many controversies inspired by or centred on Tony Benn.
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Especially as he's ended that daft last thread early!
It's 1983 all over again isn't it?
If the Lib Dems hadn't gone into coalition with the Tories causing them to lose most of their seats then they would probably be the official opposition after the next election.
Except, that is, for a dozen of us 'Poms' singing not very nice songs at about 100 antipodeans (to give them a more polite name than the rest of the crowd are using).
http://www.newstatesman.com/helen-lewis/2015/07/echo-chamber-social-media-luring-left-cosy-delusion-and-dangerous-insularity
http://www.liberal-vision.org/2015/05/20/virtue-signaling-a-symptom-of-a-sick-nation/
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/tweet-socialist-paradise-election-changed-that
and was apparently originated by that well known Tory, Libby Purves
http://mickhartley.typepad.com/blog/2015/05/virtue-signalling.html
Under Farron ? No chance - he's poison.
1) Betfair
2) Cricinfo
I'll get to see it on Sky Go in a second.
And there it is.
"Liz Kendall (15)
Barking"
Her age and state of mind?
Party before Country?
Cricinfo just noted that it's 10 years since the last 2-day Test, also noting that the commentators hadn't mentioned it for fear of jinxing the team. Do Sky UK have Punter and Warne as well? Listening to them right now is hilarious!
"Thanks. Can I pose a question back to you. What would be decent about removing myself from a process in which many people have put in a huge amount of time and energy to develop a good, decent alternative political strategy for our party?"
He's not going to withdraw. Besides, if he were going to he'd only have a week at most in which to do it, since ballot papers will be printed soon.
(R)evolutionary spirit. Jezza, in all of his forms; Jezza for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Jezza, you mark my words, will not only save the Labour Party, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the UK. Thank you very much.
It's a crazy set-up opening up the voting pool, and always going to attract the loonies.
"When governments deliver services based on the needs of the people they serve, they can increase public satisfaction and reduce costs."
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/public_sector/Implementing_a_citizen-centric_approach_to_delivering_government_services?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck-oth-1507
He said she's the only one with any sort of idea how to get back into power. Though he can't stand Blair, he's the first to say that Tony was spot on about getting the balance of Left vs Right = Number 10. He doesn't think Labour deserves to be in power for a decade.
Blairites' problem is that they have no ideas going forward. Arguably the coalition have taken some of their clothes especially on education.
If that was the aim then it was utterly misguided, looking at it now, it's obvious that the more 'politically minded' ie the activiest left were going to be more engerised than the more dis-engaged masses.
"Comrades. Yesterday we stood on the edge of the abyss. Today we took a great step forward."
Hoping for an old testament flood here I guess.
Sheesh.
Was a poll from just before the GE not quoted on here a few weeks ago (as a component of seeking to explain the GE result) that a huge proportion of people have not even noticed ANY austerity.
Cue Billy Bragg......
The Blairites haven't developed a new set of ambitions - mouthing Tony is so 1997. It's their own silly fault that they've been eyeing the Prince Over The Water for years or polishing Chuka's head.
There's nothing in their kit bag. That Liz has nothing to say apart from some home truths about spending too much - she's not come up with anything I can think of.
Andy doesn't count anymore as he'll say absolutely anything to get a vote except support Liverpool FC.
They then change leader in the hope that the new person will not appear as inhuman as the previous one. A couple of years later the voters realise that it wasn't the head but the whole fish that reeked. At that point they vote Labour. I think Corbyn is probably the most fearless and the least likely to be just another opportunist. So why not?
The truth is that the UK got off lightly compared to the PIGS. In the grand scheme of things the cuts we have and will undertake are relatively moderate.
Just on 'swarm': there were over a thousand trying to get into the Tunnel. They've been marauding around lorries with knives and other weapons. 'Swarm' is fine.
Saw a smidgen of BBC News and was surprised to see Norman Smith suggesting there could be civil war in Labour following the description by one union or other of Blairites as a virus to whom Corbyn was the antidote (also, I believe viruses don't have antidotes, but that's another matter).
There must be plenty of blairites and centre left people who worked hard for labour in the last election and those before it.
To be called a 'virus'. Goodness.
TBH, I find their loyalty quaintly touching, but I don't give it any credence.
Australia won by 10 wickets
England won by 2 wickets.
I find it odd that Chuka Umunna is Blairites favoured candidate. He voted for Ed Miliband of all people in 2010, appeared to be a Miliband ally for most of 2010-15, and slightly more left of centre than many Blairites. That someone so unexpected became the leading Blairite candidate is proof about how that fraction of the party is really lacking leadership figures. I know Brown pretty much bull-dozed much of the old Blairites who had more credibility, but in an age where politics is pretty much a cult of youth I think many of these figures would be retiring from front-line politics anyway, e.g. Alan Johnson.
One of the most bizarre Brownite-Blairite conversions though was Douglas Alexander. He became a Blairite long after Blair had departed politics.
I'm enjoying this Labour leadership election even more than the last. Corbyn might not win, but what his level of support says about the Labour Party is very encouraging for those of us who hope to never see another Labour government.
The GMB tried to get Progress banned from the Labour in 2012. No wonder Blairites are feeling purged. What seemed unlikely but unpleasant cleansing in 2012, looks much more like BAU under a Corbyn regime. http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/staggers/2012/06/campaign-against-progress-spells-pure-danger-labour
It seems to have hopped trans-Atlantic and mutated into virtue signalling thanks to the intervention of the not non-Tory Spectator magazine in April (http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9501282/hating-the-daily-mail-is-a-substitute-for-doing-good/). The article begins with an American example, and develops "virtue signalling" further by using it when the actions that carried the signal are actually harmful (i.e. rough questioning of Nigel Farage; foreign aid; funding the NHS. Well, it's the Spectator). Ironically, it ends with the very virtuous declaration that residual Christian opposition to the sin of pride motivates the author's public hatred of other people's public hatred. So virtue signalling was already off to a hypocritical start.
Guido picked it up two days later and tweeted it, so I'm surprised more PB people hadn't heard of it before the election since he seems to be the font of a lot of discussion. Then leftists picked it up as a kind of balm after getting battered in the election.
None of this means it isn't utter bunkum.
The LDs have been reduced to 8 MPs. They face a battle to stay relevant, and even have their voice heard - let alone be the largest centre-left party.
The Labour party won't split into two parties in the event of a Corbyn win - most likely Blairites and others will stay and fight on 'for the party's soul' and what not.
Most of the social movements on the Left appeared to be allied to the kind of politics Corbyn espouses.
If a centre-left opposition is going to replace Labour, where is it going to come from?
By the way Is Farron really all that bad?
"when evenly matched, fight"
I am sure that cannot be correct not least because it contradicts the maxim that every battle is won before it is fought.
Perhaps the transition from pirate king to ancient chinese war-lord and sage has clouded some of Sunil's synapses.
Are ye all right Cap'n Sunil? Belike, else.
England v the Windies in 2000 at Headingley
We're in a 5yrs Parly - that's a guaranteed job for anyone who's at the end of their career and wants to make a point/shake things up.
I don't see a repeat of the SDP, yet. But it's happened before and the LDs are at a very low ebb seat wise, again. There are enough voters who lean Left, but not as far as Jezza who could be pulled into a broadened LD Party. They've also been through this before within living memory - maybe they'd make their own overtures too.
I certainly don't think it's a wacky idea. And depending on what Jezza does if he wins - well all bets are off.
They've taken One Man And His Dog, added Gaby Logan and created this summer's version of Splash. Reality sheep-herding on prime-time. I'm watching it just to make sure I'm not tripping. Flockstars ITV 8pm tonight.
A lot of 'ace' cards the Tories had to play - mainly Cameron as their leader - won't be there in 2020 and their competence could be damaged by a number of events, including the EU ref, the spectacle of a leadership contest from 2017 onwards, potentially 'bad' economic events, the impact of austerity, and even a Osborne or Johnson leadership going down like a lead ballon.
On top of that if Farron *does* managed a some kind of LD revival, then that could well affect the Tory gains in the South West.
"I don't throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things. Read Sun-tzu, The Art of War. Every battle is won before it is ever fought."
If Scotland leaves, the Conservatives would be the favoured major party south of the border, I suspect.
Edited extra bit: and cheers for the Sunzi/Sun Tzu mention. Having a quick flick through, it reminded me I could do worse than to read that (and my Zhuge Liang/Liu Ji commentary on Sunzi's Art of War).
Some of the most dramatic tests haven't gone into the final day
Labour are more than 90 seats behind the Tories. That's landslide territory.
So unless something fairly cataclysmic happens between now and GE2020 - they aren't going to leap that tall building in a single bound no matter how bored Joe Public are with the Tories.
I think the difference between the SDP in the 80s and now, is that the gang of four were established political figures who had had successful ministerial careers. The likes of Umunna, Kendall and Creasy et al, on the other hand are still in the phase of being politically ambitious and up-and-coming and so are unlikely to risk their careers on a SDP kind of venture. If anything, staying around and hoping that the Corbyn Left fail is good for their careers - they can come in afterwards and take the initiative.
If anything I'd up it to 6 years, though 5 years seems about right. The shorter the term, the less anything gets done as you're always coming in or going from an election.
If Scotland leaves, the Conservatives have presided over the end of the United Kingdom.
I know which David Cameron and George Osborne should prefer!
But everyone really enjoyed a certain Devon Malcolm giving the performance of his life the day before...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NncjEUUESU
Or the second Lord's Test of 2000 - Dominic Cork hitting 33 in the third-day gloaming to nudge England home by 2 wickets against West Indies.
I'm sure other people can think of more...
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/event?id=27458858
England is economically a much less left-wing and more right-wing place than it was in the early 1980s. It's easy to rationalise why over 200 constituencies voted for Foot Labour; after all, the left was still a living current in the Labour Party; unionised, working-class extraction and manufacturing jobs were still extremely common; and more people had a tradition of always voting Labour.
As I said, Farron isn't the whole LD Party - he's not as far Left as Jezza being my premise. I could see a couple of Labour MPs trying to force some issues by doing so. Afterall, we had Carswell and Voldemort move to the Kippers to make a principled point/feel more at home.