I've posted a number of times over the last few months about Hillary and the Dem nomination race, but less about the GOP race. This is because my position is that the race is not yet in an interesting stage and I don't have anything new to say. In the end, there will be 1-3 serious candidates left in the race and they will be drawn from Walker, Rubio, Bush and Kasich. Until we get into the first primaries and caucuses, I don't expect the field to whittle down any, so the situation won't clear up much to enable me to make any useful analysis beyond the above.
This view is very nicely explained in far greater detail by Nate Silver at 538 in a very interesting analysis. It is well worth a read for anyone planning to bet on the GOP nomination:
"Richard Burnett, chief executive of the Road Haulage Association, which represents lorry drivers, said the situation was "escalating".
He said: "We've got hundreds, thousands of examples of drivers that have been talking to us, telling us of their experiences where they've had 10-20 migrants surrounding their trucks, threatening them, taunting them, using bars and knives to bang on the sides of vehicles to threaten them and make them feel vulnerable. This is definitely escalating and it needs to be taken seriously."
And they wonder why the French and Italians don't welcome them with open arms?
Forget asylum. There's only one place they should be heading for if they do get through: jail.
Yesterday evening there was an interview with a W African at Calais who had paid people smugglers $3,000 - a huge amount for that African. Apparently they had sold the family home and most possessions in the hope that he could get to the UK and then bring them over.
Like I said why are they heading here.? What could they possibly get that's free and delivered right away that they cannot get anywhere else in Europe? ( if they can then why still come here?)
Mmmmm.... Now let me see.... Ha!! Maybe that's the problem?
Some of it might not even be something real; who knows what the traffickers and others are telling them about the land of milk and honey that is the United Kingdom?
Off-topic: I'm going off on a little trip to Scotland. I've packed my walking gear for the first time in two years, and the familiar butterflies are fluttering merrily away.
I've just looked at the weather forecast and, annoyingly, it is for rain and even lightning over the next few days. But if I don't go now, I won't get another chance for at least a year.
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This view is very nicely explained in far greater detail by Nate Silver at 538 in a very interesting analysis. It is well worth a read for anyone planning to bet on the GOP nomination:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-the-nickelback-of-gop-candidates/?ex_cid=story-twitter
Off-topic: I'm going off on a little trip to Scotland. I've packed my walking gear for the first time in two years, and the familiar butterflies are fluttering merrily away.
I've just looked at the weather forecast and, annoyingly, it is for rain and even lightning over the next few days. But if I don't go now, I won't get another chance for at least a year.
I just hope my tent's still waterproof ...