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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Greece the crisis over the Euro is set to become a Drach

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  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Mr. M, whilst I dislike the EU and want it to end, the problem with spectacular collapse would be its explosiveness.

    You are talking like a bystander, Mr Dancer.
    If you've bought shares in popcorn every explosion is simply a return on investment.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Is it wrong I want a euro crisis in Italy so I can segue in lots of subtle puns and classical history references.

    You want them to be paid in guineas?

    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=guinea
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,045
    Mr Eagles, your forthcoming AV thread seems to be as perpetually distant as Greek agreement on debt repayment.

    Mr Owls, good to see you back, hope yourself and family are well rested.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    RobD said:

    Indigo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think he made a terrible, terrible error. The Greeks would have been far better served by a sensible - IMF backed - exit from the Euro. Instead they are likely to do it in the very worst way possible: a disorganised default that steals the savings of millions.

    I don't think the EU would have let Greece go without them pulling out of the EU all together. The whole point is for going into the euro to be irrevocable to prevent the markets speculating on who is going to be leaving next (see the quote in my post below). Additionally isn't euro membership a condition of EU membership for countries that have not secured an opt out ?

    It was available to them early this year just after the election. The IMF went to the Greeks privately and basically offered them Grexit on a silver platter in return for continued austerity. Grexident puts the Euro at risk, am orderly Grexit doesn't. An orderly exit has always been seen as the lesser of two evils at the IMF and it was available to the Greeks in 2010 and early this year.
    It isn't in the gift of the IMF though.

    Also see
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/16/eurozone-greece-mersch-idUSL5N0Z23T420150616
    Membership of the euro zone is irreversible and leaving the single currency is not foreseen in the European Union's treaty, a top European Central Bank official said on Tuesday.
    Lol. Calling something irreversible doesn't make it so.

    Well you can take that view about any international treaty to the extent that you are prepared to abrogate it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984

    Mr. Eagles, Greece is just as classical as the Roman Empire.

    Don't forget the Aetolian League inviting in the Romans to help fight off Philip V of Macedon.

    I know but I'm close to exhausting the numbers of subtle puns I can make about the Greek tragedy.

    I might have to make a reference to Themistocles at this rate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,991
    GeoffJM Le Pen is not really a socialist, more a protectionist, populist, nationalist in the mould of Pat Buchanan, Joseph Chamberlain or the BNP or some elements of UKIP
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    rcs1000 said:

    It looks as if is the fact that the Euro, and perhaps not even European Union are "irreversible" may at last be too plain for anyone sane to deny. If so, this is a great day for the peoples of Europe.

    Nothing is irreversible.

    The EU, the Eurozone, Russia, the United Kingdom, Islam, Christianity, humanity and the sun.

    One day, all will be gone.

    At some point in the future, the last person to utter the words "the United Kingdom" (itself many many millenia after the UK is no more) will themselves die, and with it all knowledge of what we built.
    However there will still be an AV thread in the offing.
    If it wasn't for the Greek tragedy and your and Antifrank's guest pieces, I would have run my AV thread this week.

    But i can read between the lines, you want me to run it PDQ. I shall endeavour to meet everyone's desire for an AV thread in the next 72 hours.
    Maybe I'm just late to the party, but I don't detect any universal desire for an Anti-Virus thread.....
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Mr. Eagles, Greece is just as classical as the Roman Empire.

    Don't forget the Aetolian League inviting in the Romans to help fight off Philip V of Macedon.

    I know but I'm close to exhausting the numbers of subtle puns I can make about the Greek tragedy.

    I might have to make a reference to Themistocles at this rate.
    Subtle??!!!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,045
    RobD said:

    Indigo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think he made a terrible, terrible error. The Greeks would have been far better served by a sensible - IMF backed - exit from the Euro. Instead they are likely to do it in the very worst way possible: a disorganised default that steals the savings of millions.

    I don't think the EU would have let Greece go without them pulling out of the EU all together. The whole point is for going into the euro to be irrevocable to prevent the markets speculating on who is going to be leaving next (see the quote in my post below). Additionally isn't euro membership a condition of EU membership for countries that have not secured an opt out ?

    It was available to them early this year just after the election. The IMF went to the Greeks privately and basically offered them Grexit on a silver platter in return for continued austerity. Grexident puts the Euro at risk, am orderly Grexit doesn't. An orderly exit has always been seen as the lesser of two evils at the IMF and it was available to the Greeks in 2010 and early this year.
    It isn't in the gift of the IMF though.

    Also see
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/16/eurozone-greece-mersch-idUSL5N0Z23T420150616
    Membership of the euro zone is irreversible and leaving the single currency is not foreseen in the European Union's treaty, a top European Central Bank official said on Tuesday.
    Lol. Calling something irreversible doesn't make it so.
    It's irreversible until the day it reverses. One day next week, looking at the comments so far.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Indigo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think he made a terrible, terrible error. The Greeks would have been far better served by a sensible - IMF backed - exit from the Euro. Instead they are likely to do it in the very worst way possible: a disorganised default that steals the savings of millions.

    I don't think the EU would have let Greece go without them pulling out of the EU all together. The whole point is for going into the euro to be irrevocable to prevent the markets speculating on who is going to be leaving next (see the quote in my post below). Additionally isn't euro membership a condition of EU membership for countries that have not secured an opt out ?

    It was available to them early this year just after the election. The IMF went to the Greeks privately and basically offered them Grexit on a silver platter in return for continued austerity. Grexident puts the Euro at risk, am orderly Grexit doesn't. An orderly exit has always been seen as the lesser of two evils at the IMF and it was available to the Greeks in 2010 and early this year.
    It isn't in the gift of the IMF though.

    Also see
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/16/eurozone-greece-mersch-idUSL5N0Z23T420150616
    Membership of the euro zone is irreversible and leaving the single currency is not foreseen in the European Union's treaty, a top European Central Bank official said on Tuesday.
    It basically is. The Greeks could have defaulted on their EU/ECB debts and had IMF support afterwards to stabilise the new currency and post Grexit economy. A government can default on its debts at any time. It's the aftermath that matters, and in January the IMF were willing to back a voluntary Grexit. Now Tsipras has managed to piss off the IMF and in particular Christine Lagarde who he sees as a neo-liberal anti-christ so who knows what happens now. They can obviously still default on the debt but how they will pay for basic imports is not clear as few will be willing to accept Drachma as payment and they won't be able to raise EUR from new bond sales without punishing interest rates on UK law bonds sold in London.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2015
    The first problem for Greece may not be the referendum but the fact that banks probably won't be open between Monday and Saturday.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Indigo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think he made a terrible, terrible error. The Greeks would have been far better served by a sensible - IMF backed - exit from the Euro. Instead they are likely to do it in the very worst way possible: a disorganised default that steals the savings of millions.

    I don't think the EU would have let Greece go without them pulling out of the EU all together. The whole point is for going into the euro to be irrevocable to prevent the markets speculating on who is going to be leaving next (see the quote in my post below). Additionally isn't euro membership a condition of EU membership for countries that have not secured an opt out ?

    It was available to them early this year just after the election. The IMF went to the Greeks privately and basically offered them Grexit on a silver platter in return for continued austerity. Grexident puts the Euro at risk, am orderly Grexit doesn't. An orderly exit has always been seen as the lesser of two evils at the IMF and it was available to the Greeks in 2010 and early this year.
    It isn't in the gift of the IMF though.

    Also see
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/16/eurozone-greece-mersch-idUSL5N0Z23T420150616
    Membership of the euro zone is irreversible and leaving the single currency is not foreseen in the European Union's treaty, a top European Central Bank official said on Tuesday.
    Lol. Calling something irreversible doesn't make it so.
    It's irreversible until the day it reverses. One day next week, looking at the comments so far.

    One thing that isn't reversible is the thousand year PB Tory reich... ;)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Mr. Eagles, I'm reminded of this nice piece of Laconic wit:

    "After invading Greece and receiving the submission of other key city-states, Philip II of Macedon sent a message to Sparta: "If I invade Laconia you will be destroyed, never to rise again." The Spartan ephors replied with a single word: "If" (αἴκα).[27] Subsequently neither Philip II nor his son Alexander the Great attempted to capture the city."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laconic_phrase
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Mr. Eagles, Greece is just as classical as the Roman Empire.

    Don't forget the Aetolian League inviting in the Romans to help fight off Philip V of Macedon.

    I know but I'm close to exhausting the numbers of subtle puns I can make about the Greek tragedy.

    I might have to make a reference to Themistocles at this rate.
    There's always Antigone and Uncleigone - Euripides and Iripadose
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    edited June 2015

    Mr. Eagles, Greece is just as classical as the Roman Empire.

    Don't forget the Aetolian League inviting in the Romans to help fight off Philip V of Macedon.

    I know but I'm close to exhausting the numbers of subtle puns I can make about the Greek tragedy.

    I might have to make a reference to Themistocles at this rate.
    Subtle??!!!
    A friend of mine once said I was subtle (as a brick through a window)
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inevitable, though if the Referendum goes ahead and is a Yes Tsipras will have to resign and new elections be held to try and form a new government agreeing to a bailout. If a No Tsipras will simply confirm the Greek people have voted for Grexit anyway

    The implication of this is that a "Yes" vote means Tsipras resigns and does not sign the agreement, and a "No" vote means Tsipras stays in post and does not sign the agreement.

    So, he's spending millions of euros on a referendum he can't organise on time to reach a conclusion he's already decided upon.

    Syriza, ladies and gentlemen, a big hand please for the stupidest d*** f**** ever to run a post-1980 Western European nation. I know it's a high bar, but he's cleared it.
    On the contrary, if its YES then someone signs the agreement and Greece gets a bail out and austerity. If its a NO then Tsipras gets to manage GrExit. Once the population have decided if they want the euro or the drachma no government is going to do something different, the question will be which government does it.

    Personally I think Tsipras has played a blinder in getting what he actually wanted, which is Greece out of the Euro with someone else getting the blame. He now has the document in the OP to show the Greek people and say "not my fault, I wasn't even allowed to the meeting"
    ??
    You need to revisit your English Comprehension classes. Its like saying Peter Bonetti played a blinder when Germany beat us 4-2 in 1970
    You need to pay attention a bit more. Tsipras and Varoufakis never wanted to be in the euro, and have always wanted Greece to leave the euro. They changed their policy just before the last Greece election because it wasn't playing well with the voters. Nothing would please them more than being able to leave the euro and blame someone else.
    Tsipras is a thick leftie who is leading his country to disaster. Whatever happens he will blame someone else and fellow thickos will believe him. It does not make it true or believable.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Indigo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think he made a terrible, terrible error. The Greeks would have been far better served by a sensible - IMF backed - exit from the Euro. Instead they are likely to do it in the very worst way possible: a disorganised default that steals the savings of millions.

    I don't think the EU would have let Greece go without them pulling out of the EU all together. The whole point is for going into the euro to be irrevocable to prevent the markets speculating on who is going to be leaving next (see the quote in my post below). Additionally isn't euro membership a condition of EU membership for countries that have not secured an opt out ?

    It was available to them early this year just after the election. The IMF went to the Greeks privately and basically offered them Grexit on a silver platter in return for continued austerity. Grexident puts the Euro at risk, am orderly Grexit doesn't. An orderly exit has always been seen as the lesser of two evils at the IMF and it was available to the Greeks in 2010 and early this year.
    It isn't in the gift of the IMF though.

    Also see
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/16/eurozone-greece-mersch-idUSL5N0Z23T420150616
    Membership of the euro zone is irreversible and leaving the single currency is not foreseen in the European Union's treaty, a top European Central Bank official said on Tuesday.
    Lol. Calling something irreversible doesn't make it so.
    It's irreversible until the day it reverses. One day next week, looking at the comments so far.
    One thing that isn't reversible is the thousand year PB Tory reich... ;)


    Ein volk: ein reich: ein OGH? :)
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    calum said:

    Danny565 said:

    john_zims said:

    @Casino_Royale

    'I'll believe it when it happens'

    Exactly, there will be a last minute compromise with the troika backing down, there are no limits when the entire EU ideology is at stake.

    Agree totally, not a chance they will let someone leave their beloved Euro.

    This is posturing by the EU ahead of a murky compromise. If they do allow Greece to leave the whole pack of cards will come tumbling down.
    No the opposite is now true. It could be best for the EU to allow Greece to fail.

    Case 1: The Greeks go bust and fail they'll suffer a devastating devaluation in the short term and even more austerity than ever thought imaginable. They may come out of it good in the long-term but it will take a very long time to recover. All other nations on the edge (like Portugal) stare into this abyss and step back clinging to nurse.

    Case 2: The EU folds to the Greeks and bails them out on even more generous terms. The Portugese etc look at this and think "if the Greeks get away with this behaviour, why don't we become more difficult". So too could everyone else appeal more to their own self-interest.

    Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.
    On the other hand, if they do cut Greece loose, there's the risk of a Lehmans-like domino effect. Huge pressure on many of the other weak Eurozone members, which means the so-called "creditor nations" have to end up stumping up more cash to restore some kind of confidence in the end, than they would if they just swallowed their pride now.
    That's my big fear as well, I remember sitting watching Bloomberg with my wine (ex-Lehmans) just before the Asian markets opened and it became clear that the US had decided to let Lehmans fail - the rest is history. Suffice to say I don't think anyone is on top of the systemic impact of Greece defaulting.

    Let's hope they don't decide to pursue Sterlingization or Currency Union with the UK !!
    Edit: with my wife not wine !! - I did have wine as well and whisky as the Asian markets tanked.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,991
    Viewcode I think MD and geoffw have it about right
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    MaxPB said:

    Indigo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think he made a terrible, terrible error. The Greeks would have been far better served by a sensible - IMF backed - exit from the Euro. Instead they are likely to do it in the very worst way possible: a disorganised default that steals the savings of millions.

    I don't think the EU would have let Greece go without them pulling out of the EU all together. The whole point is for going into the euro to be irrevocable to prevent the markets speculating on who is going to be leaving next (see the quote in my post below). Additionally isn't euro membership a condition of EU membership for countries that have not secured an opt out ?

    It was available to them early this year just after the election. The IMF went to the Greeks privately and basically offered them Grexit on a silver platter in return for continued austerity. Grexident puts the Euro at risk, am orderly Grexit doesn't. An orderly exit has always been seen as the lesser of two evils at the IMF and it was available to the Greeks in 2010 and early this year.
    It isn't in the gift of the IMF though.

    Also see
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/16/eurozone-greece-mersch-idUSL5N0Z23T420150616
    Membership of the euro zone is irreversible and leaving the single currency is not foreseen in the European Union's treaty, a top European Central Bank official said on Tuesday.
    It basically is. The Greeks could have defaulted on their EU/ECB debts and had IMF support afterwards to stabilise the new currency and post Grexit economy. A government can default on its debts at any time. It's the aftermath that matters, and in January the IMF were willing to back a voluntary Grexit. Now Tsipras has managed to piss off the IMF and in particular Christine Lagarde who he sees as a neo-liberal anti-christ so who knows what happens now. They can obviously still default on the debt but how they will pay for basic imports is not clear as few will be willing to accept Drachma as payment and they won't be able to raise EUR from new bond sales without punishing interest rates on UK law bonds sold in London.


    If they allow Greece to leave, and I very much doubt they will, then I expect the IMF to step up.

    The alternative is that nice Mr. Putin chap, no-one wants that and it is the Greeks trump card.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    calum said:

    calum said:

    Danny565 said:

    john_zims said:

    @Casino_Royale

    'I'll believe it when it happens'

    Exactly, there will be a last minute compromise with the troika backing down, there are no limits when the entire EU ideology is at stake.

    Agree totally, not a chance they will let someone leave their beloved Euro.

    This is posturing by the EU ahead of a murky compromise. If they do allow Greece to leave the whole pack of cards will come tumbling down.
    No the opposite is now true. It could be best for the EU to allow Greece to fail.

    Case 1: The Greeks go bust and fail they'll suffer a devastating devaluation in the short term and even more austerity than ever thought imaginable. They may come out of it good in the long-term but it will take a very long time to recover. All other nations on the edge (like Portugal) stare into this abyss and step back clinging to nurse.

    Case 2: The EU folds to the Greeks and bails them out on even more generous terms. The Portugese etc look at this and think "if the Greeks get away with this behaviour, why don't we become more difficult". So too could everyone else appeal more to their own self-interest.

    Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.
    On the other hand, if they do cut Greece loose, there's the risk of a Lehmans-like domino effect. Huge pressure on many of the other weak Eurozone members, which means the so-called "creditor nations" have to end up stumping up more cash to restore some kind of confidence in the end, than they would if they just swallowed their pride now.
    That's my big fear as well, I remember sitting watching Bloomberg with my wine (ex-Lehmans) just before the Asian markets opened and it became clear that the US had decided to let Lehmans fail - the rest is history. Suffice to say I don't think anyone is on top of the systemic impact of Greece defaulting.

    Let's hope they don't decide to pursue Sterlingization or Currency Union with the UK !!
    Edit: with my wife not wine !! - I did have wine as well and whisky as the Asian markets tanked.
    I was thinking of asking what happened when Blomberg got your wine :)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Mr. England, the Carthaginians and Romans were on good terms before the brigands conquered Messana and sought help from both sides.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    I think he's genuinely appalling. If he wanted to leave the Euro, all he had to do was "Dear Eurogroup. My country will leave the Euro on 1 July 2015. Signed etc, 1 May 2015" and that would be it. No fussing, no drama, and he'd've wasted about 50billion less.

    If he want to do something without being blamed than he belongs in a psych ward, not a head of government.

    When he was first elected, he went to the IMF and asked about the possibility of Grexit. The IMF told him they would happily back him through Euro exit, but that there would continue to be conditions associated with their support.

    When he realised that Grexit (with IMF support) would not completely end austerity, he decided not to go down that route.

    I think he made a terrible, terrible error. The Greeks would have been far better served by a sensible - IMF backed - exit from the Euro. Instead they are likely to do it in the very worst way possible: a disorganised default that steals the savings of millions.
    Without being funny how many millions still have savings in Greece? This has been coming for years and the deposits in the banks have been plummeting that whole time. Many Greeks with savings have by now either ensured they have bank accounts in another nation, or buried their cash under a mattress or elsewhere. I wonder how much is left to be lost?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984

    Mr. Eagles, I'm reminded of this nice piece of Laconic wit:

    "After invading Greece and receiving the submission of other key city-states, Philip II of Macedon sent a message to Sparta: "If I invade Laconia you will be destroyed, never to rise again." The Spartan ephors replied with a single word: "If" (αἴκα).[27] Subsequently neither Philip II nor his son Alexander the Great attempted to capture the city."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laconic_phrase

    General Anthony McAuliffe did it better.

    When after receiving a lengthy letter from the German commander inviting him to surrender during the Siege of Bastogne, McAuliffe replied with

    "Nuts"
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Mr. Eagles, Greece is just as classical as the Roman Empire.

    Don't forget the Aetolian League inviting in the Romans to help fight off Philip V of Macedon.

    I know but I'm close to exhausting the numbers of subtle puns I can make about the Greek tragedy.

    I might have to make a reference to Themistocles at this rate.
    Subtle??!!!
    A friend of mine once said I was subtle (as a brick through a window)
    Not my strong point either!!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Mr. Eagles, he most certainly did not.
  • DevonExileDevonExile Posts: 12
    Fascinating discussion, most of which has gone over my head but haven't noticed much discussion of betting.

    Was I unwise to take 6/4 on Grexit in 2015 with Betfair just now? From reading this thread and various sources, looks to be evens each of two at best now?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Mr. Exile, for what it's worth, that looks good to me.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,424
    HYUFD said:

    Viewcode I think MD and geoffw have it about right

    Thank you

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Fascinating discussion, most of which has gone over my head but haven't noticed much discussion of betting.

    Was I unwise to take 6/4 on Grexit in 2015 with Betfair just now? From reading this thread and various sources, looks to be evens each of two at best now?

    Seems odds-on to me so that sounds a bargain.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,045
    edited June 2015

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    I think he's genuinely appalling. If he wanted to leave the Euro, all he had to do was "Dear Eurogroup. My country will leave the Euro on 1 July 2015. Signed etc, 1 May 2015" and that would be it. No fussing, no drama, and he'd've wasted about 50billion less.

    If he want to do something without being blamed than he belongs in a psych ward, not a head of government.

    When he was first elected, he went to the IMF and asked about the possibility of Grexit. The IMF told him they would happily back him through Euro exit, but that there would continue to be conditions associated with their support.

    When he realised that Grexit (with IMF support) would not completely end austerity, he decided not to go down that route.

    I think he made a terrible, terrible error. The Greeks would have been far better served by a sensible - IMF backed - exit from the Euro. Instead they are likely to do it in the very worst way possible: a disorganised default that steals the savings of millions.
    Without being funny how many millions still have savings in Greece? This has been coming for years and the deposits in the banks have been plummeting that whole time. Many Greeks with savings have by now either ensured they have bank accounts in another nation, or buried their cash under a mattress or elsewhere. I wonder how much is left to be lost?
    I'd be amazed if anyone's got substantial savings left in Greek banks, with the exception of private pensions that can't be cashed out. As you say it will all be in offshore accounts, cash or tangible assets (gold, diamonds, cars etc - anything with an international market price).

    Any rush now would be to withdraw salaries as they are paid in at the end of the month.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    I know many Greeks have withdrawn their savings from the banks and these are in Euros. However, if these did have to be exchanged for a new drachma wouldn't people lose most of their savings because of the exchange rate? In other words would Greek denominated euros be as worthless as the drachma?
  • DevonExileDevonExile Posts: 12

    Fascinating discussion, most of which has gone over my head but haven't noticed much discussion of betting.

    Was I unwise to take 6/4 on Grexit in 2015 with Betfair just now? From reading this thread and various sources, looks to be evens each of two at best now?

    Seems odds-on to me so that sounds a bargain.
    Thanks and to Morris Dancer as well. Still think was money available and Paddies were 11/10 not long ago. Looking at market graph on Betfair wondered if there was a bit of a dead cat bounce in staying in Euro price.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Mr. Felix, as suggested below, one would guess people may try to withdraw euros, buy diamonds, gold etc, wait as long as they can, then sell the valuables so they get a 'fair' price.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Philip_Thompson

    'Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.'

    They always cave in and they will again sometime on Monday evening.

    The entire EU ideology is based on integration and a currency that once you join you cannot leave.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,991
    Mark Reckless becomes director of Policy Development for UKIP Wales ahead of the Assembly elections
    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2015-06-27/mark-reckless-ukip-wales-policy-director-itv/
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    john_zims said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    'Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.'

    They always cave in and they will again sometime on Monday evening.

    The entire EU ideology is based on integration and a currency that once you join you cannot leave.

    I seriously doubt it. If you have an arsonist inside the building the best thing to do to keep your building secure is to kick them out. The Eurozone will be better safeguarded by not caving in to Greece so either Greece needs to cave in or they need to leave.

    The Greeks assumed the ECB would cave and reality seems to have struck that they're not going to. Maybe you've misjudged the EU and should reconsider what you believe about it?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    john_zims said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    'Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.'

    They always cave in and they will again sometime on Monday evening.

    The entire EU ideology is based on integration and a currency that once you join you cannot leave.

    I seriously doubt it. If you have an arsonist inside the building the best thing to do to keep your building secure is to kick them out. The Eurozone will be better safeguarded by not caving in to Greece so either Greece needs to cave in or they need to leave.

    The Greeks assumed the ECB would cave and reality seems to have struck that they're not going to. Maybe you've misjudged the EU and should reconsider what you believe about it?
    They will cave in, we'll know next week but in order to continue their ghastly project they have to cave in.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    john_zims said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    'Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.'

    They always cave in and they will again sometime on Monday evening.

    The entire EU ideology is based on integration and a currency that once you join you cannot leave.

    I seriously doubt it. If you have an arsonist inside the building the best thing to do to keep your building secure is to kick them out. The Eurozone will be better safeguarded by not caving in to Greece so either Greece needs to cave in or they need to leave.

    The Greeks assumed the ECB would cave and reality seems to have struck that they're not going to. Maybe you've misjudged the EU and should reconsider what you believe about it?
    They will cave in, we'll know next week but in order to continue their ghastly project they have to cave in.
    An expendable sacrifice shows the seriousness of the core.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    chestnut said:

    john_zims said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    'Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.'

    They always cave in and they will again sometime on Monday evening.

    The entire EU ideology is based on integration and a currency that once you join you cannot leave.

    I seriously doubt it. If you have an arsonist inside the building the best thing to do to keep your building secure is to kick them out. The Eurozone will be better safeguarded by not caving in to Greece so either Greece needs to cave in or they need to leave.

    The Greeks assumed the ECB would cave and reality seems to have struck that they're not going to. Maybe you've misjudged the EU and should reconsider what you believe about it?
    They will cave in, we'll know next week but in order to continue their ghastly project they have to cave in.
    An expendable sacrifice shows the seriousness of the core.
    Or the first domino to fall is the most important.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,045

    john_zims said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    'Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.'

    They always cave in and they will again sometime on Monday evening.

    The entire EU ideology is based on integration and a currency that once you join you cannot leave.

    I seriously doubt it. If you have an arsonist inside the building the best thing to do to keep your building secure is to kick them out. The Eurozone will be better safeguarded by not caving in to Greece so either Greece needs to cave in or they need to leave.

    The Greeks assumed the ECB would cave and reality seems to have struck that they're not going to. Maybe you've misjudged the EU and should reconsider what you believe about it?
    They will cave in, we'll know next week but in order to continue their ghastly project they have to cave in.
    Which is why the Greeks have not just called the EU, they've raised.

    The EZ now has the choice to call, fold or raise again - they're pretty short stacked, one more raise puts them all in.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175

    Mr. Felix, as suggested below, one would guess people may try to withdraw euros, buy diamonds, gold etc, wait as long as they can, then sell the valuables so they get a 'fair' price.

    Yes but most of the people featured on the news were simply hiding their thousands of Euros in their homes. do they realize this may well be a pointless exercise?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175

    john_zims said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    'Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.'

    They always cave in and they will again sometime on Monday evening.

    The entire EU ideology is based on integration and a currency that once you join you cannot leave.

    I seriously doubt it. If you have an arsonist inside the building the best thing to do to keep your building secure is to kick them out. The Eurozone will be better safeguarded by not caving in to Greece so either Greece needs to cave in or they need to leave.

    The Greeks assumed the ECB would cave and reality seems to have struck that they're not going to. Maybe you've misjudged the EU and should reconsider what you believe about it?
    They will cave in, we'll know next week but in order to continue their ghastly project they have to cave in.
    You may be right but I'm not sure that this may cause even more problems and quite quickly. Surely the markets will no longer believe in the euro if they cave to left-wing blackmail. Especially with the likes of Podemos in Spain waiting in the wings.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Mr. Eagles, I'm reminded of this nice piece of Laconic wit:

    "After invading Greece and receiving the submission of other key city-states, Philip II of Macedon sent a message to Sparta: "If I invade Laconia you will be destroyed, never to rise again." The Spartan ephors replied with a single word: "If" (αἴκα).[27] Subsequently neither Philip II nor his son Alexander the Great attempted to capture the city."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laconic_phrase

    General Anthony McAuliffe did it better.

    When after receiving a lengthy letter from the German commander inviting him to surrender during the Siege of Bastogne, McAuliffe replied with

    "Nuts"
    During operation MarketGarden and the holding of the bridge at Nijmegan in Holland the British paratroops were completely surrounded, outnumbered and getting a real pasting. The Germans sent a messenger to the Bristish commander offering to discuss terms of surrender, the British commanders reply was

    "sorry ....the British contingent do not have the facilities to accommodate any Germans that surrender "
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    john_zims said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    'Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.'

    They always cave in and they will again sometime on Monday evening.

    The entire EU ideology is based on integration and a currency that once you join you cannot leave.

    I seriously doubt it. If you have an arsonist inside the building the best thing to do to keep your building secure is to kick them out. The Eurozone will be better safeguarded by not caving in to Greece so either Greece needs to cave in or they need to leave.

    The Greeks assumed the ECB would cave and reality seems to have struck that they're not going to. Maybe you've misjudged the EU and should reconsider what you believe about it?
    They will cave in, we'll know next week but in order to continue their ghastly project they have to cave in.
    Which is why the Greeks have not just called the EU, they've raised.

    The EZ now has the choice to call, fold or raise again - they're pretty short stacked, one more raise puts them all in.
    It looks like the EZ has called the bluff. If a player is bluffing every hand then eventually you have to take them out.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    felix said:

    Mr. Felix, as suggested below, one would guess people may try to withdraw euros, buy diamonds, gold etc, wait as long as they can, then sell the valuables so they get a 'fair' price.

    Yes but most of the people featured on the news were simply hiding their thousands of Euros in their homes. do they realize this may well be a pointless exercise?
    Isn't a Euro a Euro a Euro? I know they have different codes, but will this make their Euros worthless in the rest of the Eurozone?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Felix, as suggested below, one would guess people may try to withdraw euros, buy diamonds, gold etc, wait as long as they can, then sell the valuables so they get a 'fair' price.

    Yes but most of the people featured on the news were simply hiding their thousands of Euros in their homes. do they realize this may well be a pointless exercise?
    Isn't a Euro a Euro a Euro? I know they have different codes, but will this make their Euros worthless in the rest of the Eurozone?
    I don't think so, the Euros themselves are backed by the ECB. Any printed Euros that are held will be on a par (who checks the serial number on a note).

    OTOH Euros in a bank account will no longer be Euros as the banks won't have the liquidity to maintain paying them out.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    felix said:

    john_zims said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    'Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.'

    They always cave in and they will again sometime on Monday evening.

    The entire EU ideology is based on integration and a currency that once you join you cannot leave.

    I seriously doubt it. If you have an arsonist inside the building the best thing to do to keep your building secure is to kick them out. The Eurozone will be better safeguarded by not caving in to Greece so either Greece needs to cave in or they need to leave.

    The Greeks assumed the ECB would cave and reality seems to have struck that they're not going to. Maybe you've misjudged the EU and should reconsider what you believe about it?
    They will cave in, we'll know next week but in order to continue their ghastly project they have to cave in.
    You may be right but I'm not sure that this may cause even more problems and quite quickly. Surely the markets will no longer believe in the euro if they cave to left-wing blackmail. Especially with the likes of Podemos in Spain waiting in the wings.
    The very reason why the whole grotesque idea was flawed in the first place. Wonder what Heseltine, Clarke, Blair, Rudd and the rest of the fanatics think now.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    I was just wondering why the Greeks could not carry on and just use the euro.

    I worked in Mexico quite a bit in years gone by and they tended to use the dollar rather than the peso a lot of the time as did a wide range of S.american countries I was working in, in a similar way.

    It didn't seem to cause too much of any issue for anyone at the time and quite often they preferred dollar. Peru in particular where the cost of a beer at one point was about a 1/4 inch thickness of the wads of local currency notes you carried but you never bothered to count as it was just pointless.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Sandpit said:

    john_zims said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    'Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.'

    They always cave in and they will again sometime on Monday evening.

    The entire EU ideology is based on integration and a currency that once you join you cannot leave.

    I seriously doubt it. If you have an arsonist inside the building the best thing to do to keep your building secure is to kick them out. The Eurozone will be better safeguarded by not caving in to Greece so either Greece needs to cave in or they need to leave.

    The Greeks assumed the ECB would cave and reality seems to have struck that they're not going to. Maybe you've misjudged the EU and should reconsider what you believe about it?
    They will cave in, we'll know next week but in order to continue their ghastly project they have to cave in.
    Which is why the Greeks have not just called the EU, they've raised.

    The EZ now has the choice to call, fold or raise again - they're pretty short stacked, one more raise puts them all in.
    It looks like the EZ has called the bluff. If a player is bluffing every hand then eventually you have to take them out.
    If they are holding the Royal flush then they can't be taken out.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Moses_ said:

    I was just wondering why the Greeks could not carry on and just use the euro.

    I worked in Mexico quite a bit in years gone by and they tended to use the dollar rather than the peso a lot of the time as did a wide range of S.american countries I was working in, in a similar way.

    It didn't seem to cause too much of any issue for anyone at the time and quite often they preferred dollar. Peru in particular where the cost of a beer at one point was about a 1/4 inch thickness of the wads of local currency notes you carried but you never bothered to count as it was just pointless.

    The banks won't be able to use the euro and the government won't have access to it.

    Doesn't mean shops won't happily accept it.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Felix, as suggested below, one would guess people may try to withdraw euros, buy diamonds, gold etc, wait as long as they can, then sell the valuables so they get a 'fair' price.

    Yes but most of the people featured on the news were simply hiding their thousands of Euros in their homes. do they realize this may well be a pointless exercise?
    Isn't a Euro a Euro a Euro? I know they have different codes, but will this make their Euros worthless in the rest of the Eurozone?
    I don't think so, the Euros themselves are backed by the ECB. Any printed Euros that are held will be on a par (who checks the serial number on a note).

    OTOH Euros in a bank account will no longer be Euros as the banks won't have the liquidity to maintain paying them out.
    Go to another country and draw them out then.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Felix, as suggested below, one would guess people may try to withdraw euros, buy diamonds, gold etc, wait as long as they can, then sell the valuables so they get a 'fair' price.

    Yes but most of the people featured on the news were simply hiding their thousands of Euros in their homes. do they realize this may well be a pointless exercise?
    Isn't a Euro a Euro a Euro? I know they have different codes, but will this make their Euros worthless in the rest of the Eurozone?
    That was really my query? If so then you'd have to be a total fool not to get all your money into cash asap.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Felix, as suggested below, one would guess people may try to withdraw euros, buy diamonds, gold etc, wait as long as they can, then sell the valuables so they get a 'fair' price.

    Yes but most of the people featured on the news were simply hiding their thousands of Euros in their homes. do they realize this may well be a pointless exercise?
    Isn't a Euro a Euro a Euro? I know they have different codes, but will this make their Euros worthless in the rest of the Eurozone?
    I don't think so, the Euros themselves are backed by the ECB. Any printed Euros that are held will be on a par (who checks the serial number on a note).

    OTOH Euros in a bank account will no longer be Euros as the banks won't have the liquidity to maintain paying them out.
    Go to another country and draw them out then.
    That's what the Greeks have been doing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    tlg86 said:

    Isn't a Euro a Euro a Euro? I know they have different codes, but will this make their Euros worthless in the rest of the Eurozone?

    Is that not the point of capital controls? Make it 'illegal' to take cash out of the country
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    felix said:

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Felix, as suggested below, one would guess people may try to withdraw euros, buy diamonds, gold etc, wait as long as they can, then sell the valuables so they get a 'fair' price.

    Yes but most of the people featured on the news were simply hiding their thousands of Euros in their homes. do they realize this may well be a pointless exercise?
    Isn't a Euro a Euro a Euro? I know they have different codes, but will this make their Euros worthless in the rest of the Eurozone?
    That was really my query? If so then you'd have to be a total fool not to get all your money into cash asap.
    I have cash savings and have wondered what I'd do in their situation. I think I'd have looked to get as much of it out of the country - but I actually wouldn't know how to approach it.

    I think it's easy to forget that most of the people would rather not think about this sort of stuff. I find it quite difficult to follow and consider myself relatively well informed. There's a good chunk of people who may be about to get a nasty shock next week.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting development re the Janner case:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jun/26/cps-decision-not-to-prosecute-lord-janner-to-be-overturned

    "CPS decision not to prosecute Lord Janner 'to be overturned'

    Barrister’s reported conclusion in favour of trial for historical child sex offences would put director of public prosecutions under pressure to resign"
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Scott_P said:

    tlg86 said:

    Isn't a Euro a Euro a Euro? I know they have different codes, but will this make their Euros worthless in the rest of the Eurozone?

    Is that not the point of capital controls? Make it 'illegal' to take cash out of the country
    I see - again this is the sort of action that a lot of people wouldn't anticipate. This is unchartered territory and should be a lesson to everyone about the fragility of capitalism. It works most of the time - but it can go horribly wrong with mismanagement.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Moses

    'I was just wondering why the Greeks could not carry on and just use the euro.'

    It would be similar to one of the options Scotland was looking at (and currently the situation in Montengro?),nobody can stop them doing that but they will not have a lender of last resort.

    I remember being in Brazil in the 90's when almost every transaction was in US dollars.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:

    john_zims said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    'Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.'

    They always cave in and they will again sometime on Monday evening.

    The entire EU ideology is based on integration and a currency that once you join you cannot leave.

    I seriously doubt it. If you have an arsonist inside the building the best thing to do to keep your building secure is to kick them out. The Eurozone will be better safeguarded by not caving in to Greece so either Greece needs to cave in or they need to leave.

    The Greeks assumed the ECB would cave and reality seems to have struck that they're not going to. Maybe you've misjudged the EU and should reconsider what you believe about it?
    They will cave in, we'll know next week but in order to continue their ghastly project they have to cave in.
    An expendable sacrifice shows the seriousness of the core.
    Or the first domino to fall is the most important.
    The Euro - like the strong - will survive.

    The minnows will be abandoned as expedient but the core will stick.

    Many parts of the EU are inconsequential. 10-15 EU/EZ members are unimportant.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @nigel4england

    'If they are holding the Royal flush then they can't be taken out.'

    It will be interesting to see how strong France's hand is in view of their banks massive exposure supporting the Greek bailout.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    TSE attempts to get into the record books for the "worst pun of all time".

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jeremy Clarkson's new ITV show to go head-to-head with Chris Evans' Top Gear

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/jeremy-clarksons-new-itv-show-5961274
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    Moses_ said:

    I was just wondering why the Greeks could not carry on and just use the euro.

    I worked in Mexico quite a bit in years gone by and they tended to use the dollar rather than the peso a lot of the time as did a wide range of S.american countries I was working in, in a similar way.

    It didn't seem to cause too much of any issue for anyone at the time and quite often they preferred dollar. Peru in particular where the cost of a beer at one point was about a 1/4 inch thickness of the wads of local currency notes you carried but you never bothered to count as it was just pointless.

    The banks won't be able to use the euro and the government won't have access to it.

    Doesn't mean shops won't happily accept it.
    What will the 'euro' prices be in the shops? If a Greek wants a Euro what will he pay for it and with what currency?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RobNisbetSky: ALCO poll in Proto Thema newspaper puts YES at 57% (in favour of bailout/austerity) NO with 29% (Syriza position).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,308
    Greek opposition now calling for snap elections instead of a referendum, predictably. I think Tsipras will be proven not to have 'played a blinder' at all.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    I think he's genuinely appalling. If he wanted to leave the Euro, all he had to do was "Dear Eurogroup. My country will leave the Euro on 1 July 2015. Signed etc, 1 May 2015" and that would be it. No fussing, no drama, and he'd've wasted about 50billion less.

    If he want to do something without being blamed than he belongs in a psych ward, not a head of government.

    When he was first elected, he went to the IMF and asked about the possibility of Grexit. The IMF told him they would happily back him through Euro exit, but that there would continue to be conditions associated with their support.

    When he realised that Grexit (with IMF support) would not completely end austerity, he decided not to go down that route.

    I think he made a terrible, terrible error. The Greeks would have been far better served by a sensible - IMF backed - exit from the Euro. Instead they are likely to do it in the very worst way possible: a disorganised default that steals the savings of millions.
    Without being funny how many millions still have savings in Greece? This has been coming for years and the deposits in the banks have been plummeting that whole time. Many Greeks with savings have by now either ensured they have bank accounts in another nation, or buried their cash under a mattress or elsewhere. I wonder how much is left to be lost?
    I'd be amazed if anyone's got substantial savings left in Greek banks, with the exception of private pensions that can't be cashed out. As you say it will all be in offshore accounts, cash or tangible assets (gold, diamonds, cars etc - anything with an international market price).

    Any rush now would be to withdraw salaries as they are paid in at the end of the month.
    Pensions? Savings? What will salaries be worth in non euros?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    An idiot tourist thinks it's okay to touch a UK soldier:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQCSWPFnjbU
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,571
    An element of the issue which not everyone concerned has focused on is the nature of Syriza. Traditionally, there has always been a division on the far left between the hard-boiled class warriors who were nonetheless ultimately up for a deal and the people who saw confrontation as desirable in itself and nothing short of total victory acceptable. The former were broadly speaking Communist and the latter broadly speaking Trotskyist, though personality played a role too - Scargill, for instance, wasn't politically a Trotskyist, but he was certainly in the "confrontation to the end" camp.

    Those labels are less relevant now. The relevance here is that Syriza - and potentially Podemos - are in the latter camp too, with varying degrees of emphasis. Their instinct is that in any difficult situation you have to "mobilise the people for a titanic struggle", and calling a referendum is a modern form of that. I know that the party has different strands and the foreign minister sounds vaguely open to comprmise, but in the end I think the ideology of going down fighting will be what carries them over the brink.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2015
    I've just finished re-reading AJP Taylor's great 'The Struggle for Mastery in Europe 1848-1918'.

    The final chapters on the prelude to WWI are resonant, poignant and sadly, still relevant. The 'European Question' remains unresolved.

    I won't bore you all by restating my position on the EU, but I do think the whole structure needs a deep, profound systemic shock to reorient thinking from 20th century stateism to something more useful for this century. Perhaps Greece will kick start that process.

    That said, the EZ needs to become the real deal in short order; I wonder if there's still truly an appetite for for all the necessary consequences of a monetary union?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,424
    Tim_B said:

    Mr. 1000, what if they don't have money-printing plans ready to go?

    Call Xerox?
    Call Andrex.

  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    Indigo said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inevitable, though if the Referendum goes ahead and is a Yes Tsipras will have to resign and new elections be held to try and form a new government agreeing to a bailout. If a No Tsipras will simply confirm the Greek people have voted for Grexit anyway

    The implication of this is that a "Yes" vote means Tsipras resigns and does not sign the agreement, and a "No" vote means Tsipras stays in post and does not sign the agreement.

    So, he's spending millions of euros on a referendum he can't organise on time to reach a conclusion he's already decided upon.

    Syriza, ladies and gentlemen, a big hand please for the stupidest d*** f**** ever to run a post-1980 Western European nation. I know it's a high bar, but he's cleared it.
    On the contrary, if its YES then someone signs the agreement and Greece gets a bail out and austerity. If its a NO then Tsipras gets to manage GrExit. Once the population have decided if they want the euro or the drachma no government is going to do something different, the question will be which government does it.

    Personally I think Tsipras has played a blinder in getting what he actually wanted, which is Greece out of the Euro with someone else getting the blame. He now has the document in the OP to show the Greek people and say "not my fault, I wasn't even allowed to the meeting"
    ??
    You need to revisit your English Comprehension classes. Its like saying Peter Bonetti played a blinder when Germany beat us 4-2 in 1970
    3-2 and Ramsey should never have taken Bobby Charlton and thus freed up Beckenbauer.
    Agreed. It must have felt like 4-2. Bell was a good replacement but you only realised how well they regarded Charlton when we took him off.
  • TSE - Why do you refer to George Osborne presenting his "emergency" budget. Has it ever been categorised elsewhere as such? Such a description is all the more surprising given all the positive aspects relating to the economy as reported by the same Chancellor barely 4 months ago and the protestations from just about every other political party as well as from such luminaries as Charlotte Church for far less austerity in fact?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,880
    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984

    TSE - Why do you refer to George Osborne presenting his "emergency" budget. Has it ever been categorised elsewhere as such? Such a description is all the more surprising given all the positive aspects relating to the economy as reported by the same Chancellor barely 4 months ago and the protestations from just about every other political party as well as from such luminaries as Charlotte Church for far less austerity in fact?

    The Telegraph, inter alia, call it the emergency budget

    What is the emergency Budget? The emergency Budget will be held on July 8 2015

    http://bit.ly/1STga8J
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Plato said:

    Certainly truly grim Plato. But when people are fleeing this kind of daily terror from their own countries, desperately trying anything to get away- using unsafe boats, transport, whatever we treat them as sub human and don't want to know.

    Humanity is as much showing care and compassion to our own nationals that have been needlessly slaughtered during their holidays, as to the people who are escaping terror and persecution from their own countries.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,308

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    Jason Donovan can give you ten good reasons to stay.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    edited June 2015

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    As a bulwark against the vile Vladimir Putin and his imperialist ambitions for Russia.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,424

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    Because Greece gives an object lesson on what happens if you go "lah, lah, we can go on our own, everything is peachy, nothing bad will happen...oh, shiiiit"

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    As a bulwark against the vile Vladimir Putin and his imperialist ambitions for Russia.
    That's NATO
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    welshowl said:

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    As a bulwark against the vile Vladimir Putin and his imperialist ambitions for Russia.
    That's NATO
    Both play a part.

    Remember the EU received a Nobel Peace Prize, NATO has never received such an award.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,308
    welshowl said:

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    As a bulwark against the vile Vladimir Putin and his imperialist ambitions for Russia.
    That's NATO
    That's naive. Without the EU Putin would be in a much stronger position to corrupt European politics and play European powers off against each other.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tyson

    'But when people are fleeing this kind of daily terror from their own countries, desperately trying anything to get away- using unsafe boats, transport, whatever we treat them as sub human and don't want to know. '

    Is that a fact ? Or could there be just as many economic migrants?

    How many millions should be accepted or should there be no limits?

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,880
    viewcode said:

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    Because Greece gives an object lesson on what happens if you go "lah, lah, we can go on our own, everything is peachy, nothing bad will happen...oh, shiiiit"

    And the award for most desperately tortured anti-logic goes to...
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Indigo said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inevitable, though if the Referendum goes ahead and is a Yes Tsipras will have to resign and new elections be held to try and form a new government agreeing to a bailout. If a No Tsipras will simply confirm the Greek people have voted for Grexit anyway

    The implication of this is that a "Yes" vote means Tsipras resigns and does not sign the agreement, and a "No" vote means Tsipras stays in post and does not sign the agreement.

    So, he's spending millions of euros on a referendum he can't organise on time to reach a conclusion he's already decided upon.

    Syriza, ladies and gentlemen, a big hand please for the stupidest d*** f**** ever to run a post-1980 Western European nation. I know it's a high bar, but he's cleared it.
    On the contrary, if its YES then someone signs the agreement and Greece gets a bail out and austerity. If its a NO then Tsipras gets to manage GrExit. Once the population have decided if they want the euro or the drachma no government is going to do something different, the question will be which government does it.

    Personally I think Tsipras has played a blinder in getting what he actually wanted, which is Greece out of the Euro with someone else getting the blame. He now has the document in the OP to show the Greek people and say "not my fault, I wasn't even allowed to the meeting"
    ??
    You need to revisit your English Comprehension classes. Its like saying Peter Bonetti played a blinder when Germany beat us 4-2 in 1970
    3-2 and Ramsey should never have taken Bobby Charlton and thus freed up Beckenbauer.
    Agreed. It must have felt like 4-2. Bell was a good replacement but you only realised how well they regarded Charlton when we took him off.
    I'm a Chelsea fan and loved Bonetti, so biased, but it wasn't entirely his fault.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,880

    welshowl said:

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    As a bulwark against the vile Vladimir Putin and his imperialist ambitions for Russia.
    That's NATO
    Both play a part.

    Remember the EU received a Nobel Peace Prize, NATO has never received such an award.
    Oh, they got an award? Oh well consider my objections forgotten then - everything must be tickety boo.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038

    "Turning a crisis into a drachma."

    Oh dear!

    Are you not supposed to be on holiday?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547

    welshowl said:

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    As a bulwark against the vile Vladimir Putin and his imperialist ambitions for Russia.
    That's NATO
    That's naive. Without the EU Putin would be in a much stronger position to corrupt European politics and play European powers off against each other.
    It's like choosing between being burned alive or hanged drawn and quartered.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,880

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    As a bulwark against the vile Vladimir Putin and his imperialist ambitions for Russia.
    Yes, a scary bogeyman is always useful in getting the great unwashed to do as they're told.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    welshowl said:

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    As a bulwark against the vile Vladimir Putin and his imperialist ambitions for Russia.
    That's NATO
    Both play a part.

    Remember the EU received a Nobel Peace Prize, NATO has never received such an award.
    That is hardly a ringing endorsement. Obama got a Nobel Peace Prize simply because he wasn't George W Bush. Al Gore got one for being a thick politician who understands nothing about science.

    The EU causes crisis and suffering, it doesn't solve it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Sean_F said:

    welshowl said:

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    As a bulwark against the vile Vladimir Putin and his imperialist ambitions for Russia.
    That's NATO
    That's naive. Without the EU Putin would be in a much stronger position to corrupt European politics and play European powers off against each other.
    It's like choosing between being burned alive or hanged drawn and quartered.
    Having recently rewatched The Tudors, which feature graphic scenes of burning at the stake, and being hanged, drawn and quartered, I'm going for being burned alive.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984

    welshowl said:

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    As a bulwark against the vile Vladimir Putin and his imperialist ambitions for Russia.
    That's NATO
    Both play a part.

    Remember the EU received a Nobel Peace Prize, NATO has never received such an award.
    That is hardly a ringing endorsement. Obama got a Nobel Peace Prize simply because he wasn't George W Bush. Al Gore got one for being a thick politician who understands nothing about science.

    The EU causes crisis and suffering, it doesn't solve it.
    Sorry Richard, it was a sarcastic reply to one of Putin's fanboys.

    Why is it we can put men on the moon, but we can't come up with a universal sign for sarcasm on the internet?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited June 2015

    welshowl said:

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    As a bulwark against the vile Vladimir Putin and his imperialist ambitions for Russia.
    That's NATO
    Both play a part.

    Remember the EU received a Nobel Peace Prize, NATO has never received such an award.
    Bet Putin's really scared of a Nobel prize (!)

    Ok the EU helps but seriously what really matters is a US commitment of its armed forces in the event of Russian tanks rolling. Russia would lose (well we all would but he sure wouldn't win). Putin knows that. Waving Nobel prizes in his face or having the Commission issue a statement wouldn't matter a stuff.

    Fortunately I doubt Putin's that daft. Russia's got big problems itself and is probably weaker than it appears it is. As long as the U.S. remains ready to act as the cavalry that is.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    For the record, I'm prouder of our membership of NATO than I am of our membership of the EU.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Remember the EU received a Nobel Peace Prize, NATO has never received such an award.

    Can there ever have been a more naive post (if we assume it isn't just a feeble attempt at humour)?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,424

    Pensions? Savings? What will salaries be worth in non euros?

    Zero? See below
    Moses_ said:

    I was just wondering why the Greeks could not carry on and just use the euro.

    Everybody in the news media has assumed that a Grexit will proceed like Argentina's devaluation did: president throws a snit, capital controls imposed, corralito, banks overstamp notes, etc. I've argued that an alternative is 90's Latvia (for the Eurogroup) and Russia (for Greece). Russia fell apart and printed ad absurdum, Latvia redenominated from rouble to whatever (lek? Lat?) on an emergency basis: it took them 18 months to convert.

    A currency is worth what people will pay for it, and that is dependent on demand and supply. Supply of New Drachma is difficult to predict, and I assume there are experts on here who can guess better than I. So let's look at demand: who wants a New Drachma? Tourists? No, they will just take Euros and spend Euros in the hotels and bars. Goods purchasers? Nope, because Greece suppliers will cheerfully take Euros. Plumbers, taxi drivers, screw manufacturers? No, no, and no again: they aren't using New Drachma, you can't make them use it, so....why would they?

    So my question, posed on PB recently, and posed here again is: who will need to buy a New Drachma to do something? What is the demand? And the answer may actually be...nobody.

    A New Drachma may be worth literally nothing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Can anyone give ONE good reason why we're part of this (EU) mess? Exit please, ta.

    As a bulwark against the vile Vladimir Putin and his imperialist ambitions for Russia.
    That's NATO
    Both play a part.

    Remember the EU received a Nobel Peace Prize, NATO has never received such an award.
    Bet Putin's really scared of a Nobel prize (!)

    Ok the EU helps but seriously what really matters is a US commitment of its armed forces in the event of Russian tanks rolling. Russia would lose (well we all would but he sure wouldn't win). Putin knows that. Waving Nobel prizes in his face or having the Commission issue a statement wouldn't matter a stuff.

    Fortunately I doubt Putin's that daft. Russia's got big problems itself and is probably weaker than it appears it is. As long as the U.S. remains ready to act as the cavalry that is.
    Putin is scared of the gays, I think he's all fart and no follow through, as we say in Yorkshire.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690
    Moses_ said:

    Mr. Eagles, I'm reminded of this nice piece of Laconic wit:

    "After invading Greece and receiving the submission of other key city-states, Philip II of Macedon sent a message to Sparta: "If I invade Laconia you will be destroyed, never to rise again." The Spartan ephors replied with a single word: "If" (αἴκα).[27] Subsequently neither Philip II nor his son Alexander the Great attempted to capture the city."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laconic_phrase

    General Anthony McAuliffe did it better.

    When after receiving a lengthy letter from the German commander inviting him to surrender during the Siege of Bastogne, McAuliffe replied with

    "Nuts"
    During operation MarketGarden and the holding of the bridge at Nijmegan in Holland the British paratroops were completely surrounded, outnumbered and getting a real pasting. The Germans sent a messenger to the Bristish commander offering to discuss terms of surrender, the British commanders reply was

    "sorry ....the British contingent do not have the facilities to accommodate any Germans that surrender "
    I may be wrong but I think you will find that was at Arnhem not Nijmegen. It was the Americans that took the Nijmegen bridge.
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