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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Greece the crisis over the Euro is set to become a Drach
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Greece the crisis over the Euro is set to become a Drachma
It appears, unsurprisingly that all the bookies have suspended their markets on the outcome of the referendum and Greek exiting the Euro after this announcement
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I'll believe it when it happens.
Unbelievable. Never did I think I would feel sympathy for EU technocrats but these two idiots are such bad politicians they have managed it.
I doubt this will make the slightest difference to Osborne's cut in the 45% top tax rate, he would argue it would show the strength of the UK economy compared to the eurozone
'I'll believe it when it happens'
Exactly, there will be a last minute compromise with the troika backing down, there are no limits when the entire EU ideology is at stake.
Putting minor issues like Greece and EU reform to one side, SLAB have sent a 51 page dossier to the MSM detailing 131 offensive tweets by 46 users since 2012. I fear SLAB have made some classic errors:
(1) Make sure your own stables are clean before pointing the finger at others. For example, Ian Smart a senior SLAB stalwart, has produced about the same number on his own:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/friendly-help-for-kezia-dugdale/
(2) Do your research thoroughly. For example, 45 of the tweets are only included because they use the word "traitor". I'm sure all SLAB conference attendees will be familiar with the red flag and the term "traitors sneer" in the last verse.
(3) Seek legal advice that before publishing the dossier to ensure there no legal or Data Protection impediments.
(4) Think through what is the strategic aims of publishing this dossier. A cynic might say, is a party which finds offence in 131 tweets, tough enough to ever form a government?
My feeling is that Nicola has manoeuvred SLAB into a corner and you can expect some properly put together and redacted dossiers to come to light, showing that Cyberunionist abuse is just as bad, if not worse as they are more numerous and fully backed by the MSM hacks who will spend the next few days trolling anybody on SLAB's list, without a hint of irony.
So, he's spending millions of euros on a referendum he can't organise on time to reach a conclusion he's already decided upon.
Syriza, ladies and gentlemen, a big hand please for the stupidest d*** f**** ever to run a post-1980 Western European nation. I know it's a high bar, but he's cleared it.
This is posturing by the EU ahead of a murky compromise. If they do allow Greece to leave the whole pack of cards will come tumbling down.
Will game theory ever recover from the association? Could be another benefit.
#greece oh dear, this blamegame...@dstrausskahn now seems to be having a go a @Lagarde
Terrible news, for my bet on Yes in the referendum.
Having a vote on a proposal which doesn't exist is even more stupid than the Lib Dem three line whip abstention on a referendum.
Case 1: The Greeks go bust and fail they'll suffer a devastating devaluation in the short term and even more austerity than ever thought imaginable. They may come out of it good in the long-term but it will take a very long time to recover. All other nations on the edge (like Portugal) stare into this abyss and step back clinging to nurse.
Case 2: The EU folds to the Greeks and bails them out on even more generous terms. The Portugese etc look at this and think "if the Greeks get away with this behaviour, why don't we become more difficult". So too could everyone else appeal more to their own self-interest.
Its in the interests of the EU not to cave here.
Ah bless - on hearing the news, I burst out laughing...
Personally I think Tsipras has played a blinder in getting what he actually wanted, which is Greece out of the Euro with someone else getting the blame. He now has the document in the OP to show the Greek people and say "not my fault, I wasn't even allowed to the meeting"
Zealots will cling to their titanic dream, even as the iceberg draws near. The eurozone will last some time yet, and the EU probably decades.
It would take a complete muppet to be taken by surprise by Greece failing. The other nations in Europe have had five years to build a firewall between themselves and Greece. A failure in Greece may have had domino effects five years ago but will be confined to just Greece now.
He's cost, what, 170(?) billion EUR since he came in, and he's only been in, what, three months? That is a shedload of cash: about 3 times the GDP of Wales. The weird danger is not that Germany could bankrupt Greece (it's already hugely bankrupt), but that Greece could bankrupt Germany. Far better he be tied off and cauterized now, and Eurogroup absorb the losses as best it can.
The EU, the Eurozone, Russia, the United Kingdom, Islam, Christianity, humanity and the sun.
One day, all will be gone.
At some point in the future, the last person to utter the words "the United Kingdom" (itself many many millenia after the UK is no more) will themselves die, and with it all knowledge of what we built.
As an event it ought to have considerably more impact in Scotland than in rUK.
But having said that, lets all consider the Greek exit from the Euro when it actually happens. If.
The British Galactic Empire will only end when it becomes a Universal Empire.
In a billion years, we'll still be reminding the French of Agincourt
[On a serious note, obviously your fatal view is ultimately correct, but I think that the EU and eurozone's life expectancies are more slender than most others would say].
The best long term outcome for Great Britain is for the EU to burn. Literally burn in the case of Greece, Portugal, Spain etc as rioters take to the streets and their ex-countries fall to pieces. Hopefully also in Germany, France and elsewhere when people see what their leaders have signed them up to. The fantastic opportunity of Brexit will then be within our grasp.
If the world is hit by one of those existential risks that linger faintly over us, there's a good chance that the UK, or some successor state to it, will have existed within the living memory of the last human to die.
Now that's a cheery thought for a summer's Saturday evening.
Let's hope they don't decide to pursue Sterlingization or Currency Union with the UK !!
If he want to do something without being blamed than he belongs in a psych ward, not a head of government.
Although, even as someone sympathetic to the Left & Labour, I'm not someone complete signed up to all the tenets of socialism, either. I'm more of a liberal person.
My understanding (which may be completely incorrect, such are the quantity of rumours flying around at the moment) is that the IMF told the Eurogroup that - without the commitment of the Greek government to campaign for "Yes", they would be unable to allow a further deferment of payments.
Therefore, on the 30th of June, Greece will officially default on its debts. This would mean that Greek banks would no longer be able to count Greek Government Bonds as collateral and would therefore become insolvent. The Eurogroup was essentially left without options.
Is another deal possible?
Yes. It's possible that Tispiras is able to claim some great victory regarding a future debt restructuring and will therefore announce he is campaigning for "Yes".
Is another deal likely?
No.
There is enormous anger among most of Greece's "friends" that they thought a deal was on the table, and all had shaken hands. And now the deal is described as a "humiliation".
What happens next?
The Greek banks will almost certainly not open on Monday as they are no longer technically solvent - so cash machines will not work, and salaries will not be paid. If the Greek government has any sense, it will announce a three day bank holiday, and the emergency replacement of the the Euro with the New Drachma. It will need to pass a raft of legislation reinstituting it. This will need to cover the inevitable capital controls and the like. The Greek government will need to try and "incentivise" people to convert Euro notes and coins for New Drachma; while I think it is unlikely, it is possible there will be criminal penalties for holding Euros.
I would estimate it will take at least another week until the banks reopen in Greece. (I hope they have plans to print New Drachma in hand. If you're going to play high stakes poker, best to be prepared if the other guy doesn't fold.)
Hope he is OK
In the run-off Hollande trailed Le Pen 52-48 in a poll at the end of April, Sarkozy beat Hollande 60-40, Juppe Hollande 70-30.
Valls trailed Sarkozy only 48-52 and Valls beat Le Pen 55-45. In a May poll Juppe beat Le Pen 67-33, Sarkozy beat Le Pen 59-41
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
When he realised that Grexit (with IMF support) would not completely end austerity, he decided not to go down that route.
I think he made a terrible, terrible error. The Greeks would have been far better served by a sensible - IMF backed - exit from the Euro. Instead they are likely to do it in the very worst way possible: a disorganised default that steals the savings of millions.
Oh dear!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102605156
Edited extra bit: or perhaps "For you, Greeky, ze euro iz over."
But i can read between the lines, you want me to run it PDQ. I shall endeavour to meet everyone's desire for an AV thread in the next 72 hours.
Why shouldn't I hope it collapses as soon and as spectacularly as possible?
You need to revisit your English Comprehension classes. Its like saying Peter Bonetti played a blinder when Germany beat us 4-2 in 1970
As for the bonds, I'm on holiday at the moment (in Macedonia no less, just a few short hours from Greece!), do you know what the make up of domestic law bonds to foreign law bonds are for them? That, I think, is going to be a crucial factor in their default.
Pizza soon ?
Also see
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/16/eurozone-greece-mersch-idUSL5N0Z23T420150616
Don't forget the Aetolian League inviting in the Romans to help fight off Philip V of Macedon.