It'll be a very interesting referendum. If Tsipiras is campaigning for it, then hard not to see it passing. But assuming SYRIZA is split, could be very, very close.
IMF Messenger: Choose your next words carefully, Mr. Tsipras. They may be your last as Greek PM.
Alexis Tsipras: [to himself: thinking] "Earth and water"? [Tsipras unsheathes and points his sword at the IMF Messenger's throat]
IMF Messenger: Madman! You're a madman!
Alexis Tsipras: Earth and water? You'll find plenty of both down there.
IMF Messenger: No man, German or Greek, no man threatens a messenger!
Alexis Tsipras: You bring the ashes and ruins of conquered economies to Athens' city steps. You insult my wife. You threaten my people with slavery and death! Oh, I've chosen my words carefully, Bankster. Perhaps you should have done the same!
IMF Messenger: This is blasphemy! This is madness!
Alexis Tsipras: Madness...? This is SYRIZA! [kicks the IMF Messenger down the well]
If today hasn't been ghastly and bloody enough, two kids have been stabbed in the street less than a mile from where I live. I feel a sense of despair. But I'm so glad BJO and his family are safe.
A thoroughly depressing day but agree, so pleased BJO and his family safe and well. Get back here as soon as possible mate so we can start sparring again.
I'm no expert, but wouldn't Greece has already technically defaulted by the time they hold their referendum?
Apparently they'd technically be in arrears. When they'd be in default depends on when the IMF calls it as such. I've seen reports saying both 1 month and 3 months.
PT The Tory vote fell by 4% in Edinburgh South, the Labour vote rose by 4%, the LD vote fell by 30%, the SNP vote rose by 26%, so clearly there was tactical voting by Tories in that seat. In Oldham my point was Tories tactically voted LD, yes to stop Labour, but tactical voting nonetheless. As I also pointed out it will be the threat of indyref2 which makes it more likely there will be tactical voting at Holyrood next year
Justin124 If the SNP put a second referendum in their manifesto and get a large majority they would claim they had a mandate for it, certainly if there is an EU Out vote with Scotland voting In Cameron will find it difficult to refuse
David Herdson The rise of the SNP and their determination to push for independence means the country is already divided on unionist/nationalist lines anyway, tough and as the Quebec experience shows is likely to be so for at least a decade or 2. Labour MSPs are no worse in quality than SNP MPs in my view, the difference is they do not want to break-up the country. Labour lost because its Yes voters went to the SNP, No voters have to start voting tactically as a consequence.
It'll be a very interesting referendum. If Tsipiras is campaigning for it, then hard not to see it passing. But assuming SYRIZA is split, could be very, very close.
If the Greek government has rejected the terms offered then surely Syriza and Tsipras will have to campaign against it? Unless I'm missing something?
I assume that this is all another attempt to pressurise the creditors.
PT The Tory vote fell by 4% in Edinburgh South, the Labour vote rose by 4%, the LD vote fell by 30%, the SNP vote rose by 26%, so clearly there was tactical voting by Tories in that seat. In Oldham my point was Tories tactically voted LD, yes to stop Labour, but tactical voting nonetheless. As I also pointed out it will be the threat of indyref2 which makes it more likely there will be tactical voting at Holyrood next year
There is no clearly about it. The Tory held up within margin of error of their vote elsewhere. A neighbouring seat saw a 10% drop in the Tory vote so this saw a lower drop which goes against your weird claim. It's just as possible that 700 voters switched from Tory to SNP to try and defeat Labour. What isn't possible is thousands switching from Tory to Labour.
Justin124 If the SNP put a second referendum in their manifesto and get a large majority they would claim they had a mandate for it, certainly if there is an EU Out vote with Scotland voting In Cameron will find it difficult to refuse
If there is an EU out vote there will be a second referendum in Scotland no matter what. But the EU vote will be after the Holyrood elections.
Friendly but the contrary presumption is forgivable on PB.com. I just don't know much about either candidate and I think Farron would be better overall, but having seen him once or twice, I was not very inspired. Actually, I didn't think his interview was Andrew Neil was the disaster that PB thought it was.
I went to the London Hustings last week and franklt Tim Farron was much better than Norman Lamb though, rather like PClipp, I would be happy with either as leader.
The Andrew Neil interview wasn't too bad at all - to be honest, all Neil kept going on was about how Farron voted in some Division in 2006 as if that wa sof paramount importance to how he would be as leader.
It was the equivalent of asking Cameron now if he supported the ID card policy in 2004 or asking Tony Blair if he endorsed the 1983 Labour Manifesto.
The concept that the world might have moved on and people, even politicians, are entitled to change their views just doesn't seem to exist for some and that's curious.
I am off to the East Mids hustings on 6th July. I am in two minds. Norman Lamb was very good on AQ* tonight, just the right balance of pride in what the LDs did in government and regret for what they could have done better. On the other hand I think Farron has plenty of energy on the stump, and I like his Christianity.
In terms of presentation Lamb marshalls an argument well and is willing to defend positions that others may retreat from. He will provide quite a contrast in terms of style to the emotive Burnham or peppy Kendall. On the other hand Farron does tap into a deep streak of Northern non-conformism and may go down better in Scotland, Northern cities and Wales.
I am currently leaning Lamb, but great to have 2 such good candidates.
*AQ: Soubry endorsed Lamb, said he was an excellent colleague at Health as Minister. Gisele supported Kendall.
Well, it'll be a miracle if you get to July 9th without some reference to the Punic Wars or the Greek city-states or some other classical conflict.
I don't quite see what this is going to achieve - as far as I know, every poll has shown the Greeks strongly in favour of the Euro but as we've seen ourselves opinion can move sharply under the right circumstances.
David Herdson The rise of the SNP and their determination to push for independence means the country is already divided on unionist/nationalist lines anyway, tough and as the Quebec experience shows is likely to be so for at least a decade or 2. Labour MSPs are no worse in quality than SNP MPs in my view, the difference is they do not want to break-up the country. Labour lost because its Yes voters went to the SNP, No voters have to start voting tactically as a consequence.
No Tories are suggesting this. Since you say you support Labour why don't you try listening to what Tories are saying as to how they'll vote rather than trying to claim Tories will magically start backing the party that has demonised them for decades?
Well, it'll be a miracle if you get to July 9th without some reference to the Punic Wars or the Greek city-states or some other classical conflict.
I don't quite see what this is going to achieve - as far as I know, every poll has shown the Greeks strongly in favour of the Euro but as we've seen ourselves opinion can move sharply under the right circumstances.
PT Scotland voted to stay in the UK if the SNP fails to win a majority next year it has no mandate to be able to call a second referendum even if the UK votes Out in 2018, by 2020 and the next Scottish Parliament election the UK may have joined EFTA or some new looser trade relationship, maybe Holyrood would get FFA, but before that occurred if the SNP had a majority in 2018 they would use their mandate to call an immediate second indyref
Interesting that the male Supreme Court judges voted against gay marriage by 4-2. All 3 female judges voted in favour of it.
The split is not between men and women, but between those favouring constitutional government and advocates of judicial supremacy. This is one of the most extraordinary decisions in the court's history. As the Chief Justice, dissenting, observes, its only basis in the text of the constitution or precedent is the heretical doctrine of "substantive due process", invented in notorious decisions like Dred Scott v Sandford 60 US 393, Lochner v New York 198 US 45, and Adkins v Children's Hospital 261 US 525. It takes judicial activism to a new and unprecedented level. It is judgments like this which should make us thankful for the doctrine of parliamentary sovereignty.
"CPS decision not to prosecute Lord Janner 'to be overturned'
Barrister’s reported conclusion in favour of trial for historical child sex offences would put director of public prosecutions under pressure to resign"
* Can the Greek state actually organise a referendum by July 5th? That's ten days away and they're not first world in organisation. * What is the question? * If they vote No, will somebody in the ECB grow a pair and kick them off the roof? Or are we going to be treated to more scrawls from Varoufakis's Big Coloring Book again?
Sir Menzies Campbell and Lord Ashdown among group of senior Liberal Democrats who write letter to the Guardian in support of [Norman Lamb] ... Other signatories to the letter include the former Treasury secretary David Laws, the former energy secretary Ed Davey and Lady Williams, the former Labour cabinet minster and now a Liberal Democrat stalwart in the Lords. Lamb has also won the support of the former Scottish secretary Michael Moore, the former chief whip Don Foster and Lynn Featherstone, the former home office minister regarded as on the left of the party.
* Can the Greek state actually organise a referendum by July 5th? That's ten days away and they're not first world in organisation. * What is the question? * If they vote No, will somebody in the ECB grow a pair and kick them off the roof? Or are we going to be treated to more scrawls from Varoufakis's Big Coloring Book again?
PT Scotland voted to stay in the UK if the SNP fails to win a majority next year it has no mandate to be able to call a second referendum even if the UK votes Out in 2018, by 2020 and the next Scottish Parliament election the UK may have joined EFTA or some new looser trade relationship, maybe Holyrood would get FFA, but before that occurred if the SNP had a majority in 2018 they would use their mandate to call an immediate second indyref
The SNP have 56 MPs no matter what. If England voted Out and Scotland votes In then that is an undeniable major schism that needs resolving. The only way to do so would be to give Scotland a referendum to resolve it. It would be suicidal for unionists to try to compel Scotland to leave against their will as the next election would be a complete landslide after that.
BJO, I'm catching up on the posts of the day and I see you and your family have had quite a nasty time today. I am glad you are safe and I hope you and your family arrive home safely
PT The SNP vote rose 26%, that virtually all came from the 30% decline in the LD vote. The Scottish Green, UKIP and Socialist vote rose by 4% which accounts for the remainder. The Scottish Labour vote rose by 4%, the Scottish Tory vote rose by 4%, so obviously those Tories were tactically voting for Labour. In Edinburgh West the LD vote fell by just 2%, the Tory vote by 10% so obviously there was Tory tactical voting for the LDs to try and offset the LD votes lost to the SNP
Interesting that the male Supreme Court judges voted against gay marriage by 4-2. All 3 female judges voted in favour of it.
The split is not between men and women, but between those favouring constitutional government and advocates of judicial supremacy. This is one of the most extraordinary decisions in the court's history. As the Chief Justice, dissenting, observes, its only basis in the text of the constitution or precedent is the heretical doctrine of "substantive due process", invented in notorious decisions like Dred Scott v Sandford 60 US 393, Lochner v New York 198 US 45, and Adkins v Children's Hospital 261 US 525. It takes judicial activism to a new and unprecedented level. It is judgments like this which should make us thankful for the doctrine of parliamentary sovereignty.
That is completely false. The legal grounds for this are crystal clear and dozens of other courts had already made the same ruling. The 14th Amendment gives equal protection. That is clear.
Other cases like Loving v Virginia had decades ago settled that marriage is a right and this equal protection apples. Today's decision was the inevitable, legal and logical conclusion of that.
"CPS decision not to prosecute Lord Janner 'to be overturned'
Barrister’s reported conclusion in favour of trial for historical child sex offences would put director of public prosecutions under pressure to resign"
This situation places Ms Saunders, of whom I am not a fan, in a difficult position. She is the decision maker, and is not bound to accept the conclusion of the review. The discretion as to whether proceedings should be instituted against Janner is vested by law in her personally, and her exercise of that discretion must be a real one. She cannot fetter her discretion by delegating her decision to another person. If it is her policy to accept the review's conclusions as a matter of course, she will have unlawfully fettered her discretion. Janner will either attack that by way of judicial review, or, more likely, by applying to stay any indictment as an abuse of the process of the Crown Court. On the other hand, if she is seen not to accept the review's conclusions, she will open herself to all manner of political criticism.
1. Can the Greek state actually organise a referendum by July 5th? That's ten days away and they're not first world in organisation. 2. What is the question? 3. If they vote No, will somebody in the ECB grow a pair and kick them off the roof? Or are we going to be treated to more scrawls from Varoufakis's Big Coloring Book again?
1. Extremely impressive if so. There's also the small matter of Can the Greek state actually fund a referendum to be held on July 5th? I wouldn't be surprised if the answer to either question is No.
2. Good question, and remains to be seen apparently. Indeed, with the Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting tomorrow, no-one even knows what the deal on the table is, not even considering the other players in the game.
3. You would hope so. Moral hazard and pour encourager les autres and all that.
PT I do not support Labour, in fact I have never even voted Labour, only Tory and occasionally LD. That does not change the fact a few Tories voted Labour in the general election in Scotland and more will do so at Holyrood on the constituency level to stop the SNP, hopefully some unionist Labour voters will also vote Tory in the Borders or LD in the Highlands again to stop the SNP
PT The fact the SNP has 56 MPs out of 600 is irrelevant, they would not have a majority at Westminster and hence no power to call indyref 2, if they have a majority at Holyrood they would have just such a majority
PT The fact the SNP has 56 MPs out of 600 is irrelevant, they would not have a majority at Westminster and hence no power to call indyref 2, if they have a majority at Holyrood they would have just such a majority
It is not irrelevant nor is the fact that Scotland voted In while England voted Out if that happened would be irrelevant. No unionist could or would even try to justify taking Scotland out kicking and screaming against their will. The SNP bloc of MPs would propose a new referendum and others would be compelled to agree.
Of course it is irrelevant as you need 326 MPs to have a majority in the House of Commons, 56 is nowhere near. If, hypothetically, Scotland voted In while England, and maybe Wales voted Out that would only be relevant if the SNP had a majority at Holyrood with which they could call another referendum, if they had no such majority it would have no more relevance than the fact London, in all probability, would have voted to stay In too.
Scotland would then have to see what turned up by 2020, maybe the UK may have formed a new union with EFTA, and if there was an Out vote Scotland would be likely not to have voted In anyway, indeed polls have shown SNP voters are more anti EU than Scots as a whole, regardless of Sturgeon and Salmond's views, so by 2020 there is no guarantee an Out vote would force a second indyref vote or lead to a Yes. However if they had won a majority in 2016 you can be sure Sturgeon would push for one immediately anyway
Of course if the SNP win a clear majority at Holyrood next year even if the UK votes to stay in the EU the SNP could still push for a second indyref anyway, there will just be another excuse eg Scotland has not been given enough new tax and spend powers etc. Stopping the SNP getting a majority means they have no grounds to be able to push for such a second referendum
"Scotland has had its referendum. Voting SNP now in any election is no mandate for another referendum. Voting in an election in Scotland is about giving a mandate for the government in Scotland to govern - within the devolution settlement and if needs be to agree further devolution. "
I don't know why some people cannot grasp that there will be another referendum if and when the people of Scotland want one-that is, sooner, later, or never.
The date certainly will not be determined by Flightpath or fellow travellers.
"Scotland has had its referendum. Voting SNP now in any election is no mandate for another referendum. Voting in an election in Scotland is about giving a mandate for the government in Scotland to govern - within the devolution settlement and if needs be to agree further devolution. "
I don't know why some people cannot grasp that there will be another referendum if and when the people of Scotland want one-that is, sooner, later, or never.
The date certainly will not be determined by Flightpath or fellow travellers.
"Scotland has had its referendum. Voting SNP now in any election is no mandate for another referendum. Voting in an election in Scotland is about giving a mandate for the government in Scotland to govern - within the devolution settlement and if needs be to agree further devolution. "
I don't know why some people cannot grasp that there will be another referendum if and when the people of Scotland want one-that is, sooner, later, or never.
The date certainly will not be determined by Flightpath or fellow travellers.
"Scotland has had its referendum. Voting SNP now in any election is no mandate for another referendum. Voting in an election in Scotland is about giving a mandate for the government in Scotland to govern - within the devolution settlement and if needs be to agree further devolution. "
I don't know why some people cannot grasp that there will be another referendum if and when the people of Scotland want one-that is, sooner, later, or never.
The date certainly will not be determined by Flightpath or fellow travellers.
Comments
IMF = Xerxes
IMF Messenger: Choose your next words carefully, Mr. Tsipras. They may be your last as Greek PM.
Alexis Tsipras: [to himself: thinking] "Earth and water"?
[Tsipras unsheathes and points his sword at the IMF Messenger's throat]
IMF Messenger: Madman! You're a madman!
Alexis Tsipras: Earth and water? You'll find plenty of both down there.
IMF Messenger: No man, German or Greek, no man threatens a messenger!
Alexis Tsipras: You bring the ashes and ruins of conquered economies to Athens' city steps. You insult my wife. You threaten my people with slavery and death! Oh, I've chosen my words carefully, Bankster. Perhaps you should have done the same!
IMF Messenger: This is blasphemy! This is madness!
Alexis Tsipras: Madness...? This is SYRIZA!
[kicks the IMF Messenger down the well]
The Greek Referendum is confirmed.
I assume that this is all another attempt to pressurise the creditors.
In terms of presentation Lamb marshalls an argument well and is willing to defend positions that others may retreat from. He will provide quite a contrast in terms of style to the emotive Burnham or peppy Kendall. On the other hand Farron does tap into a deep streak of Northern non-conformism and may go down better in Scotland, Northern cities and Wales.
I am currently leaning Lamb, but great to have 2 such good candidates.
*AQ: Soubry endorsed Lamb, said he was an excellent colleague at Health as Minister. Gisele supported Kendall.
Having cake [ ]
Eating it [ ]
You have two votes
Leeds NW CLP: Jeremy Corbyn
Bognor Regis: Yvette Cooper
"CPS decision not to prosecute Lord Janner 'to be overturned'
Barrister’s reported conclusion in favour of trial for historical child sex offences would put director of public prosecutions under pressure to resign"
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jun/26/cps-decision-not-to-prosecute-lord-janner-to-be-overturned
* Can the Greek state actually organise a referendum by July 5th? That's ten days away and they're not first world in organisation.
* What is the question?
* If they vote No, will somebody in the ECB grow a pair and kick them off the roof? Or are we going to be treated to more scrawls from Varoufakis's Big Coloring Book again?
Sir Menzies Campbell and Lord Ashdown among group of senior Liberal Democrats who write letter to the Guardian in support of [Norman Lamb]
...
Other signatories to the letter include the former Treasury secretary David Laws, the former energy secretary Ed Davey and Lady Williams, the former Labour cabinet minster and now a Liberal Democrat stalwart in the Lords. Lamb has also won the support of the former Scottish secretary Michael Moore, the former chief whip Don Foster and Lynn Featherstone, the former home office minister regarded as on the left of the party.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/26/lib-dem-leadership-norman-lamb-leaders-ashdown-campbell
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/jun/26/ask-molly-ringwald-wicked-campers-wedding-anniversary
IMF = Xerxes
New Thread
Other cases like Loving v Virginia had decades ago settled that marriage is a right and this equal protection apples. Today's decision was the inevitable, legal and logical conclusion of that.
2. Good question, and remains to be seen apparently. Indeed, with the Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting tomorrow, no-one even knows what the deal on the table is, not even considering the other players in the game.
3. You would hope so. Moral hazard and pour encourager les autres and all that.
Scotland would then have to see what turned up by 2020, maybe the UK may have formed a new union with EFTA, and if there was an Out vote Scotland would be likely not to have voted In anyway, indeed polls have shown SNP voters are more anti EU than Scots as a whole, regardless of Sturgeon and Salmond's views, so by 2020 there is no guarantee an Out vote would force a second indyref vote or lead to a Yes. However if they had won a majority in 2016 you can be sure Sturgeon would push for one immediately anyway
Of course if the SNP win a clear majority at Holyrood next year even if the UK votes to stay in the EU the SNP could still push for a second indyref anyway, there will just be another excuse eg Scotland has not been given enough new tax and spend powers etc. Stopping the SNP getting a majority means they have no grounds to be able to push for such a second referendum
"Scotland has had its referendum. Voting SNP now in any election is no mandate for another referendum. Voting in an election in Scotland is about giving a mandate for the government in Scotland to govern - within the devolution settlement and if needs be to agree further devolution. "
I don't know why some people cannot grasp that there will be another referendum if and when the people of Scotland want one-that is, sooner, later, or never.
The date certainly will not be determined by Flightpath or fellow travellers.