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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON takes 12% lead in ComRe/Mail poll which uses new methodology to deal with turnout

In its first post GE15 phone survey for the Daily Mail ComRes is reporting a 13% CON lead. In an attempt to learn the lessons of May 7th the firm has developed a new Vote Turnout Model which seeks to refine the standard likelihood to vote questions that are common across many firms.

Read the full story here

foxinsoxuk

First - to lunch!

Freggles

Miliband for FIFA

AlastairMeeks

The time for contrition by pollsters is by no means over yet.

Philip_Thompson

Good to see some sensible reforms from ComRes.

FPT regarding the notion that 2016 Holyrood could see anti-SNP tactical voting:

There is no reason to assume tactical voting will be higher against the SNP than it was before. This ludicrous argument was getting made about why some Lab seats would be saved at the election, the simple truth is that Lab and Tory hate each other and nothing is changing that. Unless Lab and Tory start respecting each other anti-SNP tactical voting is simply not going to happen.

Slackbladder

Lazy Labour on the slide!

MikeSmithson

antifrank said:

The time for contrition by pollsters is by no means over yet.

Well the polling made it a bumper general election for the bookies.

AlastairMeeks

Philip_Thompson said:

Good to see some sensible reforms from ComRes.

FPT regarding the notion that 2016 Holyrood could see anti-SNP tactical voting:

There is no reason to assume tactical voting will be higher against the SNP than it was before. This ludicrous argument was getting made about why some Lab seats would be saved at the election, the simple truth is that Lab and Tory hate each other and nothing is changing that. Unless Lab and Tory start respecting each other anti-SNP tactical voting is simply not going to happen.

Holyrood offers more scope for tactical voting by Labour and Conservative voters whose priority was in reducing the influence of the SNP. A unionist Labour supporter might conceivably vote for the Conservatives in a border constituency and for Labour on the list. In an urban constituency a Conservative might be inclined to do the reverse.

But if the SNP are confident of winning most constituencies, we might see an awful lot of left-leaning SNP list votes loaned to the Greens in order to give yet more volume to the independence voice in Holyrood, rather than pile up SNP votes to no practical effect.

The second possibility looks more likely to me to take off than the first.

Scott_P

@JGForsyth: Ed Miliband looking very combative, a couple of rows back from the front bench, before Osborne begins to speak

Popcorn...

AlastairMeeks

MikeSmithson said:

antifrank said:

The time for contrition by pollsters is by no means over yet.

Well the polling made it a bumper general election for the bookies.

Presumably shadsy is excluded from that, given Ladbrokes took at £30,000 bet at 7/1 on a Conservative overall majority.

logical_song

So the new, presumably more accurate polling, leaves the Tories and LibDems unchanged, reduces Labour by 4% (33 to 29) and UKIP by 2% (12 to 10) and boosts the Greens and Others compared to the old methodology.

CarlottaVance

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT regarding the notion that 2016 Holyrood could see anti-SNP tactical voting:

There is no reason to assume tactical voting will be higher against the SNP than it was before. This ludicrous argument was getting made about why some Lab seats would be saved at the election, the simple truth is that Lab and Tory hate each other and nothing is changing that. Unless Lab and Tory start respecting each other anti-SNP tactical voting is simply not going to happen.

Quite.

After over three decades of demonisation by Labour, they suddenly expect Scots Tories to turn around and say 'oh well, they didn't mean it'?

Dream on.

Labour have dug their own grave.

SimonStClare

less affluent voters are more likely to exaggerate their turnout likelihood.

I guess that's a polite way of saying what has been said on PB for er, well ever really.

Flightpathl

Should make us all wonder what will go wrong next time. By which time I will be nearly 70 and probably still not polled by anybody. I will have to tell my wife to shoot me of I am still commenting on here by then. Wonder if I will have dodged the bullet?
The benefits to the Tories of having a better off aspirational and engaged electorate seem pretty clear.

kle4

I assume parties tend to get a boost/take a hit in the immediate aftermath of an election in any case depending on if they won or not?

The pollsters must be so frustrated with we the public, exagerrating whether we will vote and being coy who we will vote for even when its obvious*

*not always obvious of course - despite being accused of only pretending not to be a Tory (all those defences of Ed M's not crapness must have been in vain), I voted LD in the end, as I have in the past.

DecrepitJohnL

OGH is right imo to focus on sampling. Weighting the hell out of poor samples, and adjusting the weights after periodic failures is what gets pollsters into trouble, and additional anchors looks like an attempt to make this a more frequent or even dynamic process.

TheScreamingEagles

It's just dawned me on I'm never ever going to get phone polled again.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, kudos to ComRes but we should see more country/region specific polling.

The Scottish polling was broadly right, the ComRes South West marginals poll were spot on, as were others.

I don't think we saw a single England only poll in the last parliament.

TGOHF

Suggest that the place for pollsters to recruit people to their panel is from those exiting polling stations on GE day.

Carnyx

antifrank said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Good to see some sensible reforms from ComRes.

FPT regarding the notion that 2016 Holyrood could see anti-SNP tactical voting:

There is no reason to assume tactical voting will be higher against the SNP than it was before. This ludicrous argument was getting made about why some Lab seats would be saved at the election, the simple truth is that Lab and Tory hate each other and nothing is changing that. Unless Lab and Tory start respecting each other anti-SNP tactical voting is simply not going to happen.

Holyrood offers more scope for tactical voting by Labour and Conservative voters whose priority was in reducing the influence of the SNP. A unionist Labour supporter might conceivably vote for the Conservatives in a border constituency and for Labour on the list. In an urban constituency a Conservative might be inclined to do the reverse.

But if the SNP are confident of winning most constituencies, we might see an awful lot of left-leaning SNP list votes loaned to the Greens in order to give yet more volume to the independence voice in Holyrood, rather than pile up SNP votes to no practical effect.

The second possibility looks more likely to me to take off than the first.

Some pretty sensible comments from both. Nearer the time, I would welcome a good sensible thread analysing the issue of what to do with the list vote.

One thought however is that Labour, LDs and Tories will want to vote for their own parties in the List vote anyway, where voting makes much more sense than under FPTP. So there is that much less scope for tactical voting there: only in the constituency vote, and we have seen how well that worked (not very), at least last time round.

I also notice that Labour are sacking members who publicly advocated voting SNP. Presumably, too, they are doing this to members who did the same for SCON and SLD (ie tactical voting) - a cynic might say of course Labour won't, but that lays them potentially open to challenge by any sacked member.

AndyJS

Turnout increased by just 0.3 points in England:

http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

DecrepitJohnL

AndyJS said:

Turnout increased by just 0.3 points in England:

http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

So is that not actually a fall in turnout, given that individual registration made the registers more efficient (and/or excluded potential voters)?

Scott_P

@ToryTreasury: Chris Leslie implying Labour will continue to oppose cuts. Means more borrowing and debt. Labour still aren't learning.

An example of this...

@patrickwintour: @ToryTreasury is back bayoneting the wounded on the Labour treasury benches.

Scott_P

@ComResPolls: Our Head of Political Polling @tom_ComRes will be on @daily_politics shortly discussing new ComRes Voter Turnout Model and GE polling

Richard_Nabavi

Scott_P said:

@patrickwintour: @ToryTreasury is back bayoneting the wounded on the Labour treasury benches.

To be fair, the SNP did offer to send their fighting-fit shock troops over to occupy the treasury benches and let the exhausted Labour troops pull back...

HYUFD

PT Factually wrong, Labour only held Edinburgh South for instance through Tory tactical voting where the Tory share fell almost 5% since 2010. At Holyrood where a Labour vote does not risk a Labour government it will likely be higher

Richard_Nabavi

On topic: Seems a very sensible approach.

blackburn63

I'm not sure if labour are in denial or simply appealing to the % of the electorate that is economically illiterate. On one hand they oppose cuts, on they other they pledge to remove the deficit.

tlg86

Is it not a little strange that the Comres change makes no difference to their Ukip prediction in their final pre-election poll, yet it knocks 2 pp off their score in the first poll after the election?

Slackbladder

blackburn63 said:

I'm not sure if labour are in denial or simply appealing to the % of the electorate that is economically illiterate. On one hand they oppose cuts, on they other they pledge to remove the deficit.

And they don't want to put up tax..

HYUFD

Leslie 'The Tories promised there would not be a deficit by now', a fair point, voters will tolerate further cuts for now, but if there is no surplus by 2018 as prmoised they may be less forgiving. Leslie emphasises Labour will back tax cuts for middle and low income earners, not the rich

Scott_P

@JasonGroves1: Ed Miliband preparing to make first Commons spch since election during economy debate. Going thru his notes. Labour will hv hearts in mouths

kle4

Interesting piece by Robert Peston on the BBC about the forthcoming budget, mostly in comments referencing quite openly to no doubt being 'savagely' attacked by Krugman and his ilk, who he characterises, irrespective of the worthiness of their positions, as being patronising.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33003955

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

Is it not a little strange that the Comres change makes no difference to their Ukip prediction in their final pre-election poll, yet it knocks 2 pp off their score in the first poll after the election?

It is a UKIP to Con swing since the election as those wanting a referendum seeing Dave deliver said referendum

HYUFD

Not much change from the election on this poll other than a slight further shift from UKIP to Tory for now

Scott_P

Osborne slagging off pollsters from the despatch box

TheScreamingEagles

Ozzy slagging off the pollsters and pundits who predicted a hung parliament.

The git

Scott_P

@joeyjonessky: @George_Osborne laying it on thick: "what the pollsters and the pundits didn't reckon upon was the good sense of the British public."

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Is it not a little strange that the Comres change makes no difference to their Ukip prediction in their final pre-election poll, yet it knocks 2 pp off their score in the first poll after the election?

It is a UKIP to Con swing since the election as those wanting a referendum seeing Dave deliver said referendum

But why would that not show up in the original methodology?

EDIT: I suppose it might be an effect of rounding, but still looks suspiciously like Comres don't want to alter their prediction for Ukip at the election, which they were pretty close with.

Scott_P

@VickiYoung01: Osborne pays generous tribute to Ed Miliband who is sitting on the Labour benches and intends to speak in debate on economy #economy

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Is it not a little strange that the Comres change makes no difference to their Ukip prediction in their final pre-election poll, yet it knocks 2 pp off their score in the first poll after the election?

It is a UKIP to Con swing since the election as those wanting a referendum seeing Dave deliver said referendum

But why would that not show up in the original methodology?

My mistake, I misunderstood your original point.

AlastairMeeks

The FT reports on an interview with the Wallenbergs on their fears of Britain leaving the EU:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8662c054-0a11-11e5-a6a8-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz3c5ozOvoz

They express their concerns in terms of the impact on the EU rather than the impact on Britain:

" “The axis of London-Paris-Berlin changing to Paris-Berlin would be a significant change to the core of Europe. Britain stands for a liberal economic stance which I find very important, speaking as business people and free trade advocates,” said Jacob Wallenberg, chairman of Investor, the main family investment vehicle."

"He [Marcus Wallenberg] continued that the UK leaving would weaken the EU’s global influence: “The UK has a tremendous position and influence in areas such as trade and in political clout. Its relationship with the US is something we should be very mindful of and its positive influence on the continental European debate.”

Scott_P

Backbench Labour MP stands up to claim the last Labour government did not spend too much...

kle4

HYUFD said:

Leslie 'The Tories promised there would not be a deficit by now', a fair point, voters will tolerate further cuts for now, but if there is no surplus by 2018 as prmoised they may be less forgiving. Leslie emphasises Labour will back tax cuts for middle and low income earners, not the rich

I agree it's a fair point. I really lost patience with Cameron and crew when the deficit elimination was pushed back to 2018, inevitable as it all seemed, and I remain convinced they will push it back to 2020, but I would think far less of them if they do and extending the pain even further will surely see more anger.

TheScreamingEagles

New ICM online poll

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Public reaction to new government policies.pdf

Flightpathl

Guido's stand in sketch writer did a good job, and with the killer punch line.

taffys

Generous tribute to Ed.

In his favour, Ed often asked the right question, like on gas prices.

HYUFD

Comres head of polling on Daily Politics now on polling in election

CarlottaVance

Pretty clear that 'Labour is anti-aspiration' is going to be a key theme of this parliament.....when 'aspiration = something the Tories are proposing'.......

AndyJS

DecrepitJohnL said:

AndyJS said:

Turnout increased by just 0.3 points in England:

http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

So is that not actually a fall in turnout, given that individual registration made the registers more efficient (and/or excluded potential voters)?

Probably, yes. But most people — including the pollsters — were expecting it to rise, at least a bit. That would have boosted the Labour share.

OchEye

HYUFD said:

PT Factually wrong, Labour only held Edinburgh South for instance through Tory tactical voting where the Tory share fell almost 5% since 2010. At Holyrood where a Labour vote does not risk a Labour government it will likely be higher

Totally factually wrong, Labour held the seat due to the SNP candidate being uncovered as a CyberNAT troll who had said very rude and uncomplimentary things about the elderly and those who voted No

TheScreamingEagles

Lolz

Osborne on Labour

"Has taken the unusual approach of erecting the headstone first and then conducting the post-mortem."

Flightpathl

DecrepitJohnL said:

AndyJS said:

Turnout increased by just 0.3 points in England:

http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

So is that not actually a fall in turnout, given that individual registration made the registers more efficient (and/or excluded potential voters)?

I think when turnout increasing means turnout decreasing, then we all need to give up and go off to the punters graveyard in the SKYbetdotcom.

CarlottaVance

Good cartoon from Hoby on the EdStone:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGps2ERVAAAeSxu.jpg

HYUFD

kle4 Indeed, the voters were prepared to forgive Osborne because of the eurozone crisis and the recovery in the economy, if Osborne has not sorted out the deficit by 2018 and certainly by 2020 they may take their anger out in the polling booth

NickPalmer

Looks plausible, though I wonder if demographically-driven turnout is the whole story.

O/T: three banks have informed me that someone who knows my private address and my birthday has applied online to open accounts in my name. TSB and Capital One wrote to me to request confirmation; Lloyds cheerfully opened it anyway, and let him spend £800. Presumably there are others I've yet to hear from. TSB and CapOne promised to put me on the "exercise extra care" CIFAS list and Lloyds (who have now found that other details of the application were wrong, e.g. length of time at the address) assure me that I'm unlikely to be chased for the amount once they've checked it out. I've reported it to all three immediately I heard from them. Is there anything else I ought to be doing to protect myself?

I'm curious how it works. My post is continuing to arrive so it doesn't appear that someone is successfully diverting it. So how will the guy have got sufficient information from Lloyds to enable him to spend the money?

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

Pretty clear that 'Labour is anti-aspiration' is going to be a key theme of this parliament.....when 'aspiration = something the Tories are proposing'.......

A difficult argument to make, that your opponents are always intrinsically wrong and it is unthinkable to argue against what you are proposing (though its one the EU is practised at), but very useful if you can pull it off no doubt. I think that might reaching a bit far for the Tories though.

Scott_P

@ToryTreasury: Yvette Cooper has said Labour are "anti-business, anti-growth and ultimately anti-worker".

Flightpathl

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, kudos to ComRes but we should see more country/region specific polling.

The Scottish polling was broadly right, the ComRes South West marginals poll were spot on, as were others.

I don't think we saw a single England only poll in the last parliament.

I think with at least a week to go the yougov headline figure was its usual self but when someone (you?) listed its regional percentages then they looked a total disaster for labour everywhere except in the north of England (just). I well remember saying so at the time and could not even remotely understand how the headline figure and seat predictions could be justified. Like everyone else as I was sat with my whisky and revolver by my side I was gobsmacked at 10pm.

TheScreamingEagles

NickPalmer said:

Looks plausible, though I wonder if demographically-driven turnout is the whole story.

O/T: three banks have informed me that someone who knows my private address and my birthday has applied online to open accounts in my name. TSB and Capital One wrote to me to request confirmation; Lloyds cheerfully opened it anyway, and let him spend £800. Presumably there are others I've yet to hear from. TSB and CapOne promised to put me on the "exercise extra care" CIFAS list and Lloyds (who have now found that other details of the application were wrong, e.g. length of time at the address) assure me that I'm unlikely to be chased for the amount once they've checked it out. I've reported it to all three immediately I heard from them. Is there anything else I ought to be doing to protect myself?

I'm curious how it works. My post is continuing to arrive so it doesn't appear that someone is successfully diverting it. So how will the guy have got sufficient information from Lloyds to enable him to spend the money?

Nick, as the victim of ID theft, check your experian report now. See if there's anything unusual and check it regularly.

Am I right in thinking you have two correspondence addresses?

Is how they got me.

AndyJS

Cameron said MPs pay rise was "unaccepetable" before the election. Now he intends to accept it.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

New ICM online poll

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Public reaction to new government policies.pdf

Quite encouraging for the Conservatives, IMHO.

Scott_P

@anntreneman: The SNP may be third largest party but they are not standing up in droves to intervene on an ultra bullish Chancellor. Why so quiet?

Angus McNeil has a go

Osborne tells him to "Put up, or shut up"

Theuniondivvie

OchEye said:

HYUFD said:

PT Factually wrong, Labour only held Edinburgh South for instance through Tory tactical voting where the Tory share fell almost 5% since 2010. At Holyrood where a Labour vote does not risk a Labour government it will likely be higher

Totally factually wrong, Labour held the seat due to the SNP candidate being uncovered as a CyberNAT troll who had said very rude and uncomplimentary things about the elderly and those who voted No

Also the Tory vote fell by just over 800 votes, the LDs by 13k. I don't think it was Tory tactical votes that swung it.

AndyJS

"Alex Salmond tells female MP 'behave yourself, woman!'

Scottish Nationalist MP accused of sexism after outburst in Commons at Anna Soubry, a Treasury minister"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11650695/Alex-Salmond-tells-female-MP-behave-yourself-woman.html

HYUFD

OchAye No, the SNP total rose 26%, the Labour total also rose 5%, the Tory total fell almost 5%

MarkHopkins

TheScreamingEagles said:

NickPalmer said:

Looks plausible, though I wonder if demographically-driven turnout is the whole story.

O/T: three banks have informed me that someone who knows my private address and my birthday has applied online to open accounts in my name. TSB and Capital One wrote to me to request confirmation; Lloyds cheerfully opened it anyway, and let him spend £800. Presumably there are others I've yet to hear from. TSB and CapOne promised to put me on the "exercise extra care" CIFAS list and Lloyds (who have now found that other details of the application were wrong, e.g. length of time at the address) assure me that I'm unlikely to be chased for the amount once they've checked it out. I've reported it to all three immediately I heard from them. Is there anything else I ought to be doing to protect myself?

I'm curious how it works. My post is continuing to arrive so it doesn't appear that someone is successfully diverting it. So how will the guy have got sufficient information from Lloyds to enable him to spend the money?

Nick, as the victim of ID theft, check your experian report now. See if there's anything unusual and check it regularly.

Am I right in thinking you have two correspondence addresses?

Is how they got me.

Note that Experian may try and charge you for extra services.

The statutory check is only £2.

http://www.experian.co.uk/consumer/statutory-report.html

Flightpathl

Have comres just found a model that fits their last poll and then adopted that? I'm just asking. May be that is what good statistics is all about.

TheScreamingEagles

Huzzah, we're selling off the rest of Royal Mail

HYUFD

TUD Many of those LD votes will have gone to the SNP

TheScreamingEagles

Ed Miliband speaking now!

Scott_P

Miliband on his feet

HYUFD

TSE Fair enough, it is now making a profit, though as a fully private body I do not see why it should have to comply with the universal service, either scrap it or make its competitors do it too, or the government must subsidise it

Casino_Royale

Thanks to whomever posted this on the previous thread. I agree with all of it:

http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2015/06/04/rock-bottom-2/

HYUFD

Ed M now speaking, quite witty quote 'my son said if there was a fire the fire brigade would know where to come as you used to be famous', now quoting Disraeli

Scott_P

Miliband giving the his best speech of the last 5 years

TheScreamingEagles

Well we're cutting defence by a further half a billion, that's going to be troublesome for Dave.

TheScreamingEagles

@SophyRidgeSky: Biggest departmental cuts: 1. Transport £545m 2. Defence £500m 3. Education/Business £450m each 4. Justice £249m 5. DCLG £230

Plato

I it whenever a Labourite says this - it's just another spadeful of digging their own graveyard.

Scott_P said:

Backbench Labour MP stands up to claim the last Labour government did not spend too much...

Richard_Nabavi

MarkHopkins said:

Note that Experian may try and charge you for extra services.

The statutory check is only £2.

http://www.experian.co.uk/consumer/statutory-report.html

In a case of identity theft you probably want to pay a bit more to get a fuller report - it can be a serious pain to sort out.

TheScreamingEagles

Who is the ginger lady sat behind Ed Miliband? #HasAWeaknessForRedHeads

Casino_Royale

AndyJS said:

"Alex Salmond tells female MP 'behave yourself, woman!'

Scottish Nationalist MP accused of sexism after outburst in Commons at Anna Soubry, a Treasury minister"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11650695/Alex-Salmond-tells-female-MP-behave-yourself-woman.html

At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.

I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.

Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.

Philip_Thompson

HYUFD said:

PT Factually wrong, Labour only held Edinburgh South for instance through Tory tactical voting where the Tory share fell almost 5% since 2010. At Holyrood where a Labour vote does not risk a Labour government it will likely be higher

Factually wrong. There was a 21.7% swing against Labour. Labour won however due to unpleasant revelations about the local SNP candidate and they won with a 2637 majority with the Tory vote only (as said by others) falling by 800 votes. How you can view that as a win for tactical votes is beyond me.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

MarkHopkins said:

Note that Experian may try and charge you for extra services.

The statutory check is only £2.

http://www.experian.co.uk/consumer/statutory-report.html

In a case of identity theft you probably want to pay a bit more to get a fuller report - it can be a serious pain to sort out.

Agreed - the consequences can last years.

watford30

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

"Alex Salmond tells female MP 'behave yourself, woman!'

Scottish Nationalist MP accused of sexism after outburst in Commons at Anna Soubry, a Treasury minister"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11650695/Alex-Salmond-tells-female-MP-behave-yourself-woman.html

At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.

I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.

Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.

Salmond was to 'Yes', what Farage will be for 'OUT' - a negative.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well we're cutting defence by a further half a billion, that's going to be troublesome for Dave.

What's all this about? I thought the CSR was in July.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Royale, I agree. Salmond is like a Scottish Balls, except perhaps even worse.

Before getting on with some work, I saw a minute or two of Miliband. Good humour with the son quote, and sporting congratulations for Osborne and [the absent] Cameron.

Still would've been a bloody awful PM, mind.

Edited extra bit: cutting Defence even more is bloody stupid.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

@SophyRidgeSky: Biggest departmental cuts: 1. Transport £545m 2. Defence £500m 3. Education/Business £450m each 4. Justice £249m 5. DCLG £230

I take it the £545m coming off transport doesn't take into account HS2?

Flightpathl

AndyJS said:

Cameron said MPs pay rise was "unaccepetable" before the election. Now he intends to accept it.

So he should, so they all should. He should take the extra 25% (or£25k?) that Gordon denied him as well.
TBH they should accept the standard the pay is set by and adopt it spread over 5 years or whatever term suits. Then everyone should just shut up about MPs pay and concentrate on MPs quality.
How is it a moron like Corbyn gets elected. A majority of over 20,000. No wonder the health service is in a mess if he cons them into performing all those pre frontal lobotomies.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well we're cutting defence by a further half a billion, that's going to be troublesome for Dave.

What's all this about? I thought the CSR was in July.

Ozzy has announced 4.5billion worth of efficiencies/savings in his Queen Speech debate.

I'm assuming he's getting the painful stuff out now, and announcing the big popular things during the budget next month

Sandpit

Ed's back!
How is he trying to define poverty - unable to afford Sky TV or a new iPhone?

Plato

Someone tried to use my address to apply for a mortgage when I had a perfect credit score - well that got zapped instantly by me. I used to check my Experian report quite regularly.

It's well worth it if you have a decent one.

TheScreamingEagles said:

NickPalmer said:

Looks plausible, though I wonder if demographically-driven turnout is the whole story.

O/T: three banks have informed me that someone who knows my private address and my birthday has applied online to open accounts in my name. TSB and Capital One wrote to me to request confirmation; Lloyds cheerfully opened it anyway, and let him spend £800. Presumably there are others I've yet to hear from. TSB and CapOne promised to put me on the "exercise extra care" CIFAS list and Lloyds (who have now found that other details of the application were wrong, e.g. length of time at the address) assure me that I'm unlikely to be chased for the amount once they've checked it out. I've reported it to all three immediately I heard from them. Is there anything else I ought to be doing to protect myself?

I'm curious how it works. My post is continuing to arrive so it doesn't appear that someone is successfully diverting it. So how will the guy have got sufficient information from Lloyds to enable him to spend the money?

Nick, as the victim of ID theft, check your experian report now. See if there's anything unusual and check it regularly.

Am I right in thinking you have two correspondence addresses?

Is how they got me.

AndreaParma_82

Louise Haigh, new MP for Sheffield Heeley

TheScreamingEagles said:

Who is the ginger lady sat behind Ed Miliband? #HasAWeaknessForRedHeads

TheScreamingEagles

AndreaParma_82 said:

Louise Haigh, new MP for Sheffield Heeley

TheScreamingEagles said:

Who is the ginger lady sat behind Ed Miliband? #HasAWeaknessForRedHeads

Oooh, thank you.

Tykejohnno

Ed Miliband making a good speech in the commons,shame he and his party weren't more anti-EU and tougher on immigration.

MarkHopkins

Richard_Nabavi said:

MarkHopkins said:

Note that Experian may try and charge you for extra services.

The statutory check is only £2.

http://www.experian.co.uk/consumer/statutory-report.html

In a case of identity theft you probably want to pay a bit more to get a fuller report - it can be a serious pain to sort out.

The standard report has full details (for these purposes) in there.

Check the link I gave to see the differences.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well we're cutting defence by a further half a billion, that's going to be troublesome for Dave.

What's all this about? I thought the CSR was in July.

Ozzy has announced 4.5billion worth of efficiencies/savings in his Queen Speech debate.

I'm assuming he's getting the painful stuff out now, and announcing the big popular things during the budget next month

I'm very unhappy about that further £500m defence cut #sharpenspentowritetoMP

Morris_Dancer

I was going to say the advantage of not having any bloody money was that nobody could steal it, but on identity fraud I was a victim of a very low level (about £20 or so) bit a few years ago. Stood out a mile because the card it was on was one I used rarely. Thankfully the firm (VISA, I think) were entirely sensible about it and I got a refund.

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Louise Haigh, new MP for Sheffield Heeley

TheScreamingEagles said:

Who is the ginger lady sat behind Ed Miliband? #HasAWeaknessForRedHeads

Oooh, thank you.

With the right boundary changes, you might be able to give her a first term incumbency bounce in 2020.

Flightpathl

Sandpit said:

Ed's back!
How is he trying to define poverty - unable to afford Sky TV or a new iPhone?

Do you remember how buying a flat screen (plasma!) TV was a sign of decadence? Owning one became a key rioter demographic. I hope comres have updated their model on that one.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well we're cutting defence by a further half a billion, that's going to be troublesome for Dave.

Perhaps we will be forced to face up to the fact that as the public won't countenance proper action or the spending to support such things, cutting is nescessary in defence and we have to accept nothing very small forces and the ludicrous costs of minimal hardware to make ourselves feel better.