TSE Tory backbenchers will not be happy defence getting the second biggest cuts, there will likely be a rebellion to try and get overseas aid cut too to protect some of that defence funding
Labour fears as Zac Goldsmith is tipped to run for Mayor of London
Zac Goldsmith came under growing pressure to run for Mayor of London today as one of Labour’s most senior London leaders admitted he could beat her party.
Labour’s alarm bells rang at the same time as bookmakers reported a sudden flurry of bets totalling thousands of pounds had this week been staked on the Heathrow rebel Tory MP.
TSE Tory backbenchers will not be happy defence getting the second biggest cuts, there will likely be a rebellion to try and get overseas aid cut too to protect some of that defence funding
The Overseas aid budget is the obvious target. But Cameron is wedded to it as part of his modernisation strategy that it's a complete sacred cow.
The only thing that might square the circle is to somehow make military support somehow part of international aid. Perhaps the logistics budget or some operational budgets.
Well we're cutting defence by a further half a billion, that's going to be troublesome for Dave.
Perhaps we will be forced to face up to the fact that as the public won't countenance proper action or the spending to support such things, cutting is nescessary in defence and we have to accept nothing very small forces and the ludicrous costs of minimal hardware to make ourselves feel better.
Actual Tory messages that I have seen say that actual forces manpower will not be reduced.
Mr. Royale, I agree. Salmond is like a Scottish Balls, except perhaps even worse.
Before getting on with some work, I saw a minute or two of Miliband. Good humour with the son quote, and sporting congratulations for Osborne and [the absent] Cameron.
Still would've been a bloody awful PM, mind.
Edited extra bit: cutting Defence even more is bloody stupid.
TSE Tory backbenchers will not be happy defence getting the second biggest cuts, there will likely be a rebellion to try and get overseas aid cut too to protect some of that defence funding
The Overseas aid budget is the obvious target. But Cameron is wedded to it as part of his modernisation strategy that it's a complete sacred cow.
The only thing that might square the circle is to somehow make military support somehow part of international aid. Perhaps the logistics budget or some operational budgets.
Prior to the election, they were going to count our intelligence budget at part of your military budget, would be the way to meeting our NATO target.
Ed M now speaking, quite witty quote 'my son said if there was a fire the fire brigade would know where to come as you used to be famous', now quoting Disraeli
Let's hope labour hang on to his every word as the wisdom of Solomon.
Well we're cutting defence by a further half a billion, that's going to be troublesome for Dave.
Perhaps we will be forced to face up to the fact that as the public won't countenance proper action or the spending to support such things, cutting is nescessary in defence and we have to accept nothing very small forces and the ludicrous costs of minimal hardware to make ourselves feel better.
Or perhaps we should invest in a large enough military to defend our own borders, but not enough to join every one of Uncle Sam's world fuck up missions.
@SophyRidgeSky: Biggest departmental cuts: 1. Transport £545m 2. Defence £500m 3. Education/Business £450m each 4. Justice £249m 5. DCLG £230
I take it the £545m coming off transport doesn't take into account HS2?
Does HS2 come from the so called transport budget?
I guess not. What I'm getting at is that commuters will not be happy if their rail services suffer whilst the Government is spending a fortune on a new railway line.
Mr. Royale, shifting some spending from the Defence column to the Aid column would be wise.
Edited extra bit: to be clear, it's the exact same spending, they just change the name under which it happens. No real cut to Defence.
Yes, it's the best option of the worst.
In all honesty, I'd prefer a sensible level of rearmament and moderate re-expansion now the economy is on the mend. Just as Australia and, to a lesser extent, Canada is doing. Not to warmonger, but because the security situation has immeasurably deteriorated since 2010GE and we need a credible detterent force that can work in conjunction with our allies.
The whole of MENA is close to going rat-shit and we have Russia fully threatening Ukraine, and possibly the Baltic States. Crossing our fingers and hoping for the best is not a sensible strategic decision to make.
At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.
I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.
Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.
Grating on the nerves of English reactionaries is not necessarily seen as a negative north of the border.
CR Maybe, but polls show clear public opposition to the overseas aid ringfence, so Tory backbenchers would have the public behind them. With Putin holding vast military parades in Moscow, ISIS causing havoc in the Middle East and Kim Jong Un as nutty as ever, not to mention Argentina still making noises about the Falklands slashing defence to such an extent is risky
Mr. Royale, shifting some spending from the Defence column to the Aid column would be wise.
Edited extra bit: to be clear, it's the exact same spending, they just change the name under which it happens. No real cut to Defence.
I want us to spend less on defence and more on attack.
That's what the US wants too. I don't think they give a monkeys about submarines coming up the Thames, it's all about being able to assist them in the hopeless task of preserving their world hegemony. Even if this were a desirable aim, which it isn't, there would be little point in spending our blood and treasure trying to stick our finger in that particular dam. The US is inexorably drifting toward being the world's second power, with all that that entails. Rather than doing so in a conciliatory fashion (eventually) like the UK did, it seems to be on a reckless mission to push home its military advantage whilst it still has one. We need to prepare for the world as it will be - something we're extremely behind on at the moment.
At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.
I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.
Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.
Grating on the nerves of English reactionaries is not necessarily seen as a negative north of the border.
What a depressingly predictable response, complete with 180 degree slur.
You lot really will not brook any criticism of the SNP, or anyone in it, at all, will you?
CR Maybe, but polls show clear public opposition to the overseas aid ringfence, so Tory backbenchers would have the public behind them. With Putin holding vast military parades in Moscow, ISIS causing havoc in the Middle East and Kim Jong Un as nutty as ever, not to mention Argentina still making noises about the Falklands slashing defence to such an extent is risky
Polls schmolls.
The Tories fought on a manifesto commitment to increase/ringfence the aid budget.
PT No, Labour's vote rose 5%, the Tory vote fell 4%, the SNP vote rose 26%, the LD vote fell 30%
So? None of that indicates pro-Labour tactical voting from the Tories.
Besides even if all 800 Conservative votes lost had gone directly to Labour, then removing that still makes the seat a Labour hold. The swing needed by the SNP was simply too much when seriously nasty comments by their candidate were uncovered - it had nothing to do with tactical voting.
If anti-SNP tactical voting was real, Labour would have held far more than just one seat.
Mr. Royale, shifting some spending from the Defence column to the Aid column would be wise.
Edited extra bit: to be clear, it's the exact same spending, they just change the name under which it happens. No real cut to Defence.
In favour of this certainly in as much as the forces do get involved in development missions. I wouldn't bill Trident to DIFID though! On another front, I think at least a percentage of the aid budget could be made available to public subscription over the coming years - something along the lines of microfinance sites such as Kiva for instance. Every DirectGov user gets their £20 to nominate against specific projects. Can't think of too many other departments where I'd want to spend public money on this basis, but could be a worthwhile experiment.
TSE Doubt one voter voted Tory because of the overseas aid ringfence, the biggest percentage gains in the UK in vote terms were by UKIP, who pledged to end the overseas aid ringfence
On another front, I think at least a percentage of the aid budget could be made available to public subscription over the coming years - something along the lines of microfinance sites such as Kiva for instance. Every DirectGov user gets their £20 to nominate against specific projects. Can't think of too many other departments where I'd want to spend public money on this basis, but could be a worthwhile experiment.
Mr. Royale, shifting some spending from the Defence column to the Aid column would be wise.
Edited extra bit: to be clear, it's the exact same spending, they just change the name under which it happens. No real cut to Defence.
In favour of this certainly in as much as the forces do get involved in development missions. I wouldn't bill Trident to DIFID though! On another front, I think at least a percentage of the aid budget could be made available to public subscription over the coming years - something along the lines of microfinance sites such as Kiva for instance. Every DirectGov user gets their £20 to nominate against specific projects. Can't think of too many other departments where I'd want to spend public money on this basis, but could be a worthwhile experiment.
At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.
I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.
Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.
Grating on the nerves of English reactionaries is not necessarily seen as a negative north of the border.
What a depressingly predictable response, complete with 180 degree slur.
You lot really will not brook any criticism of the SNP, or anyone in it, at all, will you?
What's that you were saying in passing about humorous 'Nazi' comments?
It's a given that folk on here (let's call them PB Tories) that happily dish it out, jump on a stool screeching with their bloomers exposed the moment they get even a mild return of serve. You typify that.
At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.
I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.
Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.
Grating on the nerves of English reactionaries is not necessarily seen as a negative north of the border.
What a depressingly predictable response, complete with 180 degree slur.
You lot really will not brook any criticism of the SNP, or anyone in it, at all, will you?
Mr. Divvie, do you think I'm an 'English reactionary'?
Anyone who makes any criticism of the SNP at anytime whatsoever is responded to with a personal counterattack. That tells its own story: they are fanatics. And the fanatic always holds a secret doubt.
The only one on here with whom I've ever have a constructive, thought-provoking conversation was Stuart Dickson, who I miss. Sadly, we see very little of him these days.
As a postscript, and despite his extraordinarily disproportionate insults to critiques, there are occasional flashes of insight from Malcolmg too.
PT The SNP total rose by a huge 26%, clearly the candidate's comments did them little harm, tactical voting by Tories did occur, although we can argue whether it made the difference certainly areas like Edinburgh, Aberdeen, East Renfrewshire etc will see anti SNP voting by Tories again next year and even more so when there is no risk of electing Ed M by doing so
Mr. Divvie, do you think I'm an 'English reactionary'?
'A reactionary is a person who holds political views that favor a return to the status quo ante, the previous political state of society, which possessed characteristics (discipline, respect for authority, etc.) that he or she thinks are absent from the contemporary status quo of society.'
Tell me what you disagree with in that and I'll tell you.
TSE Doubt one voter voted Tory because of the overseas aid ringfence, the biggest percentage gains in the UK in vote terms were by UKIP, who pledged to end the overseas aid ringfence
Again you present your opinions as fact.
Yet, the overwhelming majority of the public voted for parties in favour of increasing the aid budget.
Mr. Eagles, and that's the problem with a cosy consensus, and why UKIP/SNP are on the rise. Lots of people don't want aid that high but the big three (well, big two now) parties colluded over the matter.
At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.
I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.
Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.
Grating on the nerves of English reactionaries is not necessarily seen as a negative north of the border.
What a depressingly predictable response, complete with 180 degree slur.
You lot really will not brook any criticism of the SNP, or anyone in it, at all, will you?
What's that you were saying in passing about humorous 'Nazi' comments?
It's a given that folk on here (let's call them PB Tories) that happily dish it out, jump on a stool screeching with their bloomers exposed the moment they get even a mild return of serve. You typify that.
A fantastic piece of whataboutism. If you're referring to the ribbing of the SNP and your refusal to see any of its more fanatical elements as being worthy of satire, then there's more irony in that comment than you'd ever care to admit. Noone trusts a political party without a sense of humour.
Incidentally, if you'd bothered to read my comment properly, you'll see I paid Sturgeon and Robertson a compliment and made an observation on how the SNP could have organised themselves to successfully achieve their ultimate goal last year.
But I guess you were too short-sighted to see past the initial criticism. And, indeed, any criticism.
Mr. Eagles, and that's the problem with a cosy consensus, and why UKIP/SNP are on the rise. Lots of people don't want aid that high but the big three (well, big two now) parties colluded over the matter.
Con, Lab, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens all in favour of increasing/ringfencing the Aid budget.
Mr. Divvie, do you think I'm an 'English reactionary'?
'A reactionary is a person who holds political views that favor a return to the status quo ante, the previous political state of society, which possessed characteristics (discipline, respect for authority, etc.) that he or she thinks are absent from the contemporary status quo of society.'
Tell me what you disagree with in that and I'll tell you.
I called Salmond a smug, pompous pr*ck who grates. You didn't like your beloved ex-leader being criticised, so you called me a reactionary.
A reactionary, in your eyes, is anyone who 'reacts' negatively to anything anyone from the SNP says, does or writes.
Mr. Eagles, and that's the problem with a cosy consensus, and why UKIP/SNP are on the rise. Lots of people don't want aid that high but the big three (well, big two now) parties colluded over the matter.
Con, Lab, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens all in favour of increasing/ringfencing the Aid budget.
And where does overseas aid sit in the Ipsos Mori Issues Poll?
At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.
I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.
Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.
Grating on the nerves of English reactionaries is not necessarily seen as a negative north of the border.
What a depressingly predictable response, complete with 180 degree slur.
You lot really will not brook any criticism of the SNP, or anyone in it, at all, will you?
What's that you were saying in passing about humorous 'Nazi' comments?
It's a given that folk on here (let's call them PB Tories) that happily dish it out, jump on a stool screeching with their bloomers exposed the moment they get even a mild return of serve. You typify that.
But I guess you were too short-sighted to see past the initial criticism. And, indeed, any criticism.
You're mistaking the SNP for a political party.
Its a cult - and the Great Salmond must be defended at all costs and under any circumstances....
PT The SNP total rose by a huge 26%, clearly the candidate's comments did them little harm, tactical voting by Tories did occur, although we can argue whether it made the difference certainly areas like Edinburgh, Aberdeen, East Renfrewshire etc will see anti SNP voting by Tories again next year and even more so when there is no risk of electing Ed M by doing so
Only some parts of Edinburgh, etc., qualify surely. Like, indeed, Edinburgh South which is what you have been discussing and which is an odd area - Morningside where sex is what coal comes in, in the old joke, and a lot of students and so on.
But also the Labour candidate deserves credit. He had worked much harder than most Labour MPs - presumably realising the implications of the thin majority with which he had won the seat, to begin with. For instance, he was involved in the supporters' organization tackling the problems which Heart of Midlothian FC had had. That is an incumbency bonus, but any suh bonus, by definition, has been eliminated for 58 out of 59 constituencies in Scotland as far as Labour are concerned, at least for Westminster. A Tory might well vote for Mr Murray, but a new candidate from SLAB, perhaps without any track record (such as a councillor)?
PT The SNP total rose by a huge 26%, clearly the candidate's comments did them little harm, tactical voting by Tories did occur, although we can argue whether it made the difference certainly areas like Edinburgh, Aberdeen, East Renfrewshire etc will see anti SNP voting by Tories again next year and even more so when there is no risk of electing Ed M by doing so
The SNP total rose less than it did elsewhere, so clearly the candidates comments did make a difference.
Tactical voting didn't occur in any considerable degree. Tory vote varied by well under a thousand, while Labour won by a few thousand. Crediting this to tactical voting is factually incorrect.
Even if you deducted the entire reduction in Tory votes from Labour and added them ALL to the SNP instead, the SNP would still have lost. There was no tactical victory.
I generally refrain from commenting on ANY Scottish posts as I can't be bothered with the piling on/cultist reaction from most SNPers.
It's frankly boring - however, it'd be a mistake for them to interpret my lack of response as accepting their position. I just can't be bothered with wasting pixels discussing issues that they're deaf to. We had it in spades before SIndy, now we've got the swaggering about in the HoC. Children fighting about who sits at the back of bus is spot on.
Mr. Divvie, do you think I'm an 'English reactionary'?
'A reactionary is a person who holds political views that favor a return to the status quo ante, the previous political state of society, which possessed characteristics (discipline, respect for authority, etc.) that he or she thinks are absent from the contemporary status quo of society.'
Tell me what you disagree with in that and I'll tell you.
I called Salmond a smug, pompous pr*ck who grates. You didn't like your beloved ex-leader being criticised, so you called me a reactionary.
A reactionary, in your eyes, is anyone who 'reacts' negatively to anything anyone from the SNP says, does or writes.
Mr. Eagles, and that's the problem with a cosy consensus, and why UKIP/SNP are on the rise. Lots of people don't want aid that high but the big three (well, big two now) parties colluded over the matter.
Con, Lab, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens all in favour of increasing/ringfencing the Aid budget.
And where does overseas aid sit in the Ipsos Mori Issues Poll?
You're looking in the wrong place.
Ask yourself, why did so many Lib Dems switch to the Tories at this election, was it because David Cameron showed himself to be a true Liberal Conservative, things like supporting gay marriage and increasing the aid budget did it.
It is a contributory reason why Dave has 330 times as many MPs as UKIP
At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.
I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.
Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.
Grating on the nerves of English reactionaries is not necessarily seen as a negative north of the border.
What a depressingly predictable response, complete with 180 degree slur.
You lot really will not brook any criticism of the SNP, or anyone in it, at all, will you?
Its noticeable that the SNP surge has happened under Sturgeon, a much more effective operator than Salmond - who IIRC had a bit of a 'woman problem' among voters.....
TSE Doubt one voter voted Tory because of the overseas aid ringfence, the biggest percentage gains in the UK in vote terms were by UKIP, who pledged to end the overseas aid ringfence
But UKIP had an appallingly bad election and failed on every measure. Why would we want to copy those losers?
I generally refrain from commenting on ANY Scottish posts as I can't be bothered with the piling on/cultist reaction from most SNPers.
It's frankly boring - however, it'd be a mistake for them to interpret my lack of response as accepting their position. I just can't be bothered with wasting pixels discussing issues that they're deaf to. We had it in spades before SIndy, now we've got the swaggering about in the HoC. Children fighting about who sits at the back of bus is spot on.
Mr. Divvie, do you think I'm an 'English reactionary'?
'A reactionary is a person who holds political views that favor a return to the status quo ante, the previous political state of society, which possessed characteristics (discipline, respect for authority, etc.) that he or she thinks are absent from the contemporary status quo of society.'
Tell me what you disagree with in that and I'll tell you.
I called Salmond a smug, pompous pr*ck who grates. You didn't like your beloved ex-leader being criticised, so you called me a reactionary.
A reactionary, in your eyes, is anyone who 'reacts' negatively to anything anyone from the SNP says, does or writes.
I agree with all of that 100%, Plato. That's exactly what I think.
Mr. Eagles, a quintet of idiots might agree the Earth is flat. It doesn't make it so.
Mr. Divvie, was there a Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament in 1706?
Still fail to see why you appear to consider me an English reactionary.
Afternoon, Mr D. I am rather doubtful about Cardiff, but it might just be significant that there is something called a Parliament House round the back of the High Kirk in the Lawnmarket in Edinburgh ...
Mr. Eagles, and that's the problem with a cosy consensus, and why UKIP/SNP are on the rise. Lots of people don't want aid that high but the big three (well, big two now) parties colluded over the matter.
Con, Lab, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens all in favour of increasing/ringfencing the Aid budget.
And where does overseas aid sit in the Ipsos Mori Issues Poll?
You're looking in the wrong place.
Ask yourself, why did so many Lib Dems switch to the Tories at this election, was it because David Cameron showed himself to be a true Liberal Conservative, things like supporing gay marriage and increasing the aid budget did it.
It is a contributory reason why Dave has 330 times as many MPs as UKIP
Exactly, well said. You put it much nicer than I just did.
TSE Everything I said was factually accurate, if there was a referendum on ringfencing overseas aid while cutting elsewhere it would be trounced, I doubt one voter voted for the 3 main parties due to ringfencing overseas aid
I'm not sure if labour are in denial or simply appealing to the % of the electorate that is economically illiterate. On one hand they oppose cuts, on they other they pledge to remove the deficit.
And they don't want to put up tax..
And they think their having wrecked the economy was a "Tory lie".
They really are in desperate straits. I see no evidence that there is demos stupid enough to elect 326 MPs on this sort of platform.
At some point, some Labour leader is going to have to say "It's true - we really do always wreck the economy. We really are sorry. And we really do want to change."
They are nowhere neat any of these right now. And if they were - they'd join the Tories.
Its noticeable that the SNP surge has happened under Sturgeon, a much more effective operator than Salmond - who IIRC had a bit of a 'woman problem' among voters.....
But its a cult, and any criticism is apostasy....
I haven't yet seen a comment from Nicola on Eck's boorishness. Must be one at some point
If those questions do not provoke enough discomfort, here is the kicker. Why should we think that Labour has hit rock bottom? Perhaps the real surprise about this year’s election is not that Labour lost, but that it retained the support of one in three voters in England and Wales. Its vote could go lower. Indeed, without change, it probably will. Just look at what has happened in recent years to support for Labour’s sister parties in France, Germany, Greece and Spain. And look, now, at what has happened in Scotland. Labour has no automatic right to prosper, or even survive. We have been warned.
This para caught my eye and is key. We've asked the same question here many times re their mission nowadays
Here, I believe, is where Labour’s basic problem lies. In the decades after the second world war, it rode the tide of history: strong nation-states, massive public support for collective welfare, big trade unions organising millions of manual workers in secure jobs, a clear ideological identity that much of the electorate embraced. The cost of the great social democratic causes – free healthcare, free education and universal social protection – crept up but for many years remained affordable.
TSE Everything I said was factually accurate, if there was a referendum on ringfencing overseas aid while cutting elsewhere it would be trounced, I doubt one voter voted for the 3 main parties due to ringfencing overseas aid
There are only 2 main parties. And unlike single issue extremists when we vote for one of the main parties we vote for a package, not a single issue. Ringfencing the NHS/Aid/Schools were part of that package.
Carnyx He may have had a small personal vote, but that only accounts for 1,000 votes or so at most, Tories in Edinburgh are highly educated and very pro union, I expect many would vote for Sooty if he was the SNP's main opponent
Mr. Eagles, and that's the problem with a cosy consensus, and why UKIP/SNP are on the rise. Lots of people don't want aid that high but the big three (well, big two now) parties colluded over the matter.
Con, Lab, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens all in favour of increasing/ringfencing the Aid budget.
And where does overseas aid sit in the Ipsos Mori Issues Poll?
You're looking in the wrong place.
Ask yourself, why did so many Lib Dems switch to the Tories at this election, was it because David Cameron showed himself to be a true Liberal Conservative, things like supposing gay marriage and increasing the aid budget did it.
It is a contributory reason why Dave has 330 times as many MPs as UKIP
Too be honest, I couldn't care less what the Tories do. I'm just pointing out that your logic is flawed. Personally, I think wavering ex-Lib Dems may have been more swung by the fear of Labour being propped up by the SNP. And that is kind of what the Tories campaigned on, rather than funding the Ethiopian Spice Girls.
Carnyx He may have had a small personal vote, but that only accounts for 1,000 votes or so at most, Tories in Edinburgh are highly educated and very pro union, I expect many would vote for Sooty if he was the SNP's main opponent
Except the Tories held all but 800 of their own voters. So you're wrong.
At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.
I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.
Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.
Grating on the nerves of English reactionaries is not necessarily seen as a negative north of the border.
What a depressingly predictable response, complete with 180 degree slur.
You lot really will not brook any criticism of the SNP, or anyone in it, at all, will you?
What's that you were saying in passing about humorous 'Nazi' comments?
It's a given that folk on here (let's call them PB Tories) that happily dish it out, jump on a stool screeching with their bloomers exposed the moment they get even a mild return of serve. You typify that.
A fantastic piece of whataboutism. If you're referring to the ribbing of the SNP and your refusal to see any of its more fanatical elements as being worthy of satire, then there's more irony in that comment than you'd ever care to admit. Noone trusts a political party without a sense of humour.
Incidentally, if you'd bothered to read my comment properly, you'll see I paid Sturgeon and Robertson a compliment and made an observation on how the SNP could have organised themselves to successfully achieve their ultimate goal last year.
But I guess you were too short-sighted to see past the initial criticism. And, indeed, any criticism.
'ribbing'
What is permissable, nay hilarious, for PB Tories to call others:
PT Polls did show some support for ringfencing the NHS, none at all for overseas aid and the voters deserved a chance to vote for a party which reflected that view, only UKIP did so. Indeed even education, the other ringfenced area and supposedly ringfenced, is likely to see spending rise below inflation, overseas aid will rise above inflation
At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.
I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.
Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.
Grating on the nerves of English reactionaries is not necessarily seen as a negative north of the border.
What a depressingly predictable response, complete with 180 degree slur.
You lot really will not brook any criticism of the SNP, or anyone in it, at all, will you?
Its noticeable that the SNP surge has happened under Sturgeon, a much more effective operator than Salmond - who IIRC had a bit of a 'woman problem' among voters.....
But its a cult, and any criticism is apostasy....
I dislike the SNP in general and Salmond in particular with a vengeance. However, I did not find his, or Cameron's a year or so ago, remotely sexist. The attitude of feminists to any language used in responding to them is way too precious - they screech sexist like others hurl the race card at any excuse. One is tempted to say they need to 'grow a pair' but no doubt that will bring down an enormous amount of abuse onto my thankfully, gay head. Of course I'm neither black, disabled or transgender so...
On another front, I think at least a percentage of the aid budget could be made available to public subscription over the coming years - something along the lines of microfinance sites such as Kiva for instance. Every DirectGov user gets their £20 to nominate against specific projects. Can't think of too many other departments where I'd want to spend public money on this basis, but could be a worthwhile experiment.
How is it a moron like Corbyn gets elected. A majority of over 20,000. No wonder the health service is in a mess if he cons them into performing all those pre frontal lobotomies.
Big incumbency bonus - I've canvassed in local elections and there are lots of Tory/LibDemGreen voters who remember that he helped him with this and that and is always locally visible. Also, he's a very pleasant speaker, even if you don't like his opinions - calm, fluent, and witty.
Am I right in thinking you have two correspondence addresses?
Is how they got me.
I did during the election, and I'm still noticing some irregularities - Royal Mail failed to send on most mail to my Broxtowe address (so maybe my postbox got stuffed and it was possible to extract a letter - eventually a friend emptied the box for me) and now the forwarding has expired, most mail gets through, but some letters get forwarded to Broxtowe and eventually find their way back. Baffling.
Mr. Eagles, and that's the problem with a cosy consensus, and why UKIP/SNP are on the rise. Lots of people don't want aid that high but the big three (well, big two now) parties colluded over the matter.
Con, Lab, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens all in favour of increasing/ringfencing the Aid budget.
And where does overseas aid sit in the Ipsos Mori Issues Poll?
You're looking in the wrong place.
Ask yourself, why did so many Lib Dems switch to the Tories at this election, was it because David Cameron showed himself to be a true Liberal Conservative, things like supposing gay marriage and increasing the aid budget did it.
It is a contributory reason why Dave has 330 times as many MPs as UKIP
Too be honest, I couldn't care less what the Tories do. I'm just pointing out that your logic is flawed. Personally, I think wavering ex-Lib Dems may have been more swung by the fear of Labour being propped up by the SNP. And that is kind of what the Tories campaigned on, rather than funding the Ethiopian Spice Girls.
The Tories campaigned on a package of liberal (lower l) Conservativism (hard C). A package of both "brain" (balancing the books) and "heart" (gay marriage, ringfences).
A package is like a tower of Jenga blocks. Once piece may or may not be able to be removed without collapsing the entire tower, but do it indelicately or remove what seems like a trivial piece can result in the whole edifice crumbling.
Carnyx He may have had a small personal vote, but that only accounts for 1,000 votes or so at most, Tories in Edinburgh are highly educated and very pro union, I expect many would vote for Sooty if he was the SNP's main opponent
PT/TSE As far as I can see LD voters were as opposed to the overseas aid ringfence as Tories even if they backed gay marriage. UKIP quadrupled their vote
At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.
I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.
Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.
Grating on the nerves of English reactionaries is not necessarily seen as a negative north of the border.
What a depressingly predictable response, complete with 180 degree slur.
You lot really will not brook any criticism of the SNP, or anyone in it, at all, will you?
What's that you were saying in passing about humorous 'Nazi' comments?
It's a given that folk on here (let's call them PB Tories) that happily dish it out, jump on a stool screeching with their bloomers exposed the moment they get even a mild return of serve. You typify that.
A fantastic piece of whataboutism. If you're referring to the ribbing of the SNP and your refusal to see any of its more fanatical elements as being worthy of satire, then there's more irony in that comment than you'd ever care to admit. Noone trusts a political party without a sense of humour.
Incidentally, if you'd bothered to read my comment properly, you'll see I paid Sturgeon and Robertson a compliment and made an observation on how the SNP could have organised themselves to successfully achieve their ultimate goal last year.
But I guess you were too short-sighted to see past the initial criticism. And, indeed, any criticism.
'ribbing'
What is permissable, nay hilarious, for PB Tories to call others:
The US is inexorably drifting toward being the world's second power, with all that that entails. Rather than doing so in a conciliatory fashion (eventually) like the UK did, it seems to be on a reckless mission to push home its military advantage whilst it still has one.
Conciliatory vis-a-vis whom and at what point? The Crowe Memorandum and run up to the First World War suggests that the UK behaved somewhat more recklessly than you accuse the US of doing.
RE GE 2015... am I misremembering or were the declarations for the traitorous pigdog losing his seat and Nick Palmer failing to win, both within a minute or two of each other?
We must be extra tolerant of the SNP posters on here at the moment..bearing in mind it is high season for gnats...and those nice pleated skirts they wear are really no defence for their nether regions...they become a little tetchy
PT Polls did show some support for ringfencing the NHS, none at all for overseas aid and the voters deserved a chance to vote for a party which reflected that view, only UKIP did so. Indeed even education, the other ringfenced area and supposedly ringfenced, is likely to see spending rise below inflation, overseas aid will rise above inflation
Indeed UKIP did propose dropping the ringfence while the Tories proposed keeping it - and the result was the Tories won a majority while UKIP failed overwhelmingly and got just a single seat. 1 versus 330 - clearly the Tories package worked better than UKIP's so why would we abandon success now?
PT/TSE As far as I can see LD voters were as opposed to the overseas aid ringfence as Tories even if they backed gay marriage. UKIP quadrupled their vote
You need to look harder.
A Liberal Democrat bill that protects spending on foreign aid has survived an attempt by a group of Conservative MPs to kill it off with a lengthy filibuster.
The international development bill cleared the House of Commons on Friday, despite dozens of wrecking amendments laid by Tory MPs who attempted to make it run out of parliamentary time.
PT The Tory vote fell by 4% in Edinburgh South even as the Labour vote rose by almost 5%, the SNP vote rise came almost entirely from the collapsed LD vote, whether it made the difference or not there was Tory tactical voting in Edinburgh South end of
I did not post a similar piece from Fox News yesterday as it would be discounted for reason of its source, even though the underlying poll numbers are from two different left-leaning pollsters, Quinnipiac and CNN/ORC.
Two points for those betting:
1. It might make sense to bet on Bloomberg winning both the Democratic nomination and the Presidential if you can get good odds. He has not declared and probably won't unless Hillary's numbers continue to tank. If they do, he'll be under pressure to run as a way to hold the centre for the Dems (as Hillary estranges Independents in fending off the liberal attacks within her own party). And he'll be sorely tempted to run if he thinks he can win. If he does run, he'd be a formidable candidate for the party, even with his baggage of having been a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent and then a Democrat.
2. If he does not run, and Hillary stays the course to win the nomination, take bets on the Republican candidate provided it's not Cruz, Perry or Rand. The polling numbers now giving the presumptive Dem candidate Hillary low single digit leads against the GOP field, with lower name recognition and uncertainty about who it will be, are of polls of all adults. These are the most favourable numbers for the Dems. Registered Voter numbers are less favourable, and Likely Voters even less so. These raw numbers would probably translate into most the GOP candidates leading Hillary if there were adjusted for the above factors.
RE GE 2015... am I misremembering or were the declarations for the traitorous pigdog losing his seat and Nick Palmer failing to win, both within a minute or two of each other?
RE GE 2015... am I misremembering or were the declarations for the traitorous pigdog losing his seat and Nick Palmer failing to win, both within a minute or two of each other?
Misremembering, it was TPD then Balls within in a few mins.
It was a miracle I didn't need to change my underwear that night.
PT/TSE As far as I can see LD voters were as opposed to the overseas aid ringfence as Tories even if they backed gay marriage. UKIP quadrupled their vote
UKIP failed. Do you actually honestly believe "quadrupling" the vote means any more than diddly squat? The Tory share of the vote went UP, the Tory seats went UP.
The protest share of the vote which UKIP shares went DOWN.
At the risk of incurring the wrath of the nats, Alex Salmond has always come across to me as a smug pompous pr*ck. And I do not swear lightly.
I turned when he said, 'The Scottish lion has rroared..' at his count last month, followed by a smirk. Just almost everything about his rhetoric grates.
Either Angus Robertson or Nicola Sturgeon would (and have) made far better leaders of the SNP than he. In fact, one does wonder how much better YES might have done had either of them been in charge during the indyref last year.
Grating on the nerves of English reactionaries is not necessarily seen as a negative north of the border.
What a depressingly predictable response, complete with 180 degree slur.
You lot really will not brook any criticism of the SNP, or anyone in it, at all, will you?
What's that you were saying in passing about humorous 'Nazi' comments?
It's a given that folk on here (let's call them PB Tories) that happily dish it out, jump on a stool screeching with their bloomers exposed the moment they get even a mild return of serve. You typify that.
A fantastic piece of whataboutism. If you're referring to the ribbing of the SNP and your refusal to see any of its more fanatical elements as being worthy of satire, then there's more irony in that comment than you'd ever care to admit. Noone trusts a political party without a sense of humour.
Incidentally, if you'd bothered to read my comment properly, you'll see I paid Sturgeon and Robertson a compliment and made an observation on how the SNP could have organised themselves to successfully achieve their ultimate goal last year.
But I guess you were too short-sighted to see past the initial criticism. And, indeed, any criticism.
'ribbing'
What is permissable, nay hilarious, for PB Tories to call others:
Carnyx He may have had a small personal vote, but that only accounts for 1,000 votes or so at most, Tories in Edinburgh are highly educated and very pro union, I expect many would vote for Sooty if he was the SNP's main opponent
I haven't heard anyone mention Sooty for years (apart from me when I dropped my Sooty eggcup the other month)!
But, quite apart from what Mr Thompson says, one can consider the decision making involved. In GE2010 Edinburgh South was a Labour (34.7%) -LD (37)marginal with the Tories not too far behind at 21.6 and the SNP nowhere (7.7).
Assuming that (a) I believed the polling about a SNP wave and (b) wanted to keep the SNP out but was also (c) a Tory, but also (d) realised the collapse of the LD vote, should I have voted Labour? Not an easy decision, as it would involve some pretty sophisticated decisions about what was - for all I knew - a 4 way marginal.
Not trying to be pernickety - just that it interests me because I had dinner with some friends who live in the constituency the other week and we talked about it.
TSE Given the defence cuts proposed Tory backbenchers could well hold up the budget because of it, you still have not refuted my point that LD voters did not support ringfencing overseas aid anymore than voters as a whole. LD MPs are not LD voters as a whole
RE GE 2015... am I misremembering or were the declarations for the traitorous pigdog losing his seat and Nick Palmer failing to win, both within a minute or two of each other?
Misremembering, it was TPD then Balls within in a few mins.
It was a miracle I didn't need to change my underwear that night.
yes of course it was doh! It struck me that the BBC didn't seem to go to many declarations.. Perhaps the polls meant they had their cameras at the "wrong" polling stations??
Plato "I generally refrain from commenting on ANY Scottish posts as I can't be bothered with the piling on/cultist reaction from most SNPers.
It's frankly boring - however, it'd be a mistake for them to interpret my lack of response as accepting their position. I just can't be bothered with wasting pixels discussing issues that they're deaf to. We had it in spades before SIndy, now we've got the swaggering about in the HoC. Children fighting about who sits at the back of bus is spot on."
Casino "I agree with all of that 100%, Plato. That's exactly what I think"
Having just watched Stuart Hosie's (SNP Treasury Spokesman/Deputy Leader) effective speech critiquing Osborne's economic plans, I suggest those of you-a ridiculous number of PBers-really ought to do so as well. This follows on from excellent maiden speeches from a number of "children"
You might actually learn something rather than dismissing the SNP as wayward children. They are anything but, and more importantly, the people of Scotland agree with me on that issue in ever increasing numbers.
Unionist arrogance and ignorance will end the Union.
The problem with this is that we won't really know for 5 years if they have got this right as these kind of adjustments are very turnout dependent.
Scotland next year might give some idea but the position there is so atypical now I would be reluctant to extrapolate. I was speaking to someone in the Lib Dem camp today who pointed out that in several seats that they thought they had a chance in their vote held up quite well but they were simply swamped by the success that the SNP had in getting previous non voters out to vote. The increase in turnout in Scotland was remarkable and makes any read over of the new weightings impossible.
TSE Given the defence cuts proposed Tory backbenchers could well hold up the budget because of it, you still have not refuted my point that LD voters did not support ringfencing overseas aid anymore than voters as a whole. LD MPs are not LD voters as a whole
Given you think that a party polling 13% of the vote has more of a mandate on one policy than a party polling 37% with a different policy, I suspect your mind is closed on this topic.
The problem with this is that we won't really know for 5 years if they have got this right as these kind of adjustments are very turnout dependent.
Scotland next year might give some idea but the position there is so atypical now I would be reluctant to extrapolate. I was speaking to someone in the Lib Dem camp today who pointed out that in several seats that they thought they had a chance in their vote held up quite well but they were simply swamped by the success that the SNP had in getting previous non voters out to vote. The increase in turnout in Scotland was remarkable and makes any read over of the new weightings impossible.
Mr. Eagles, and that's the problem with a cosy consensus, and why UKIP/SNP are on the rise. Lots of people don't want aid that high but the big three (well, big two now) parties colluded over the matter.
Con, Lab, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens all in favour of increasing/ringfencing the Aid budget.
And where does overseas aid sit in the Ipsos Mori Issues Poll?
You're looking in the wrong place.
Ask yourself, why did so many Lib Dems switch to the Tories at this election, was it because David Cameron showed himself to be a true Liberal Conservative, things like supposing gay marriage and increasing the aid budget did it.
It is a contributory reason why Dave has 330 times as many MPs as UKIP
Too be honest, I couldn't care less what the Tories do. I'm just pointing out that your logic is flawed. Personally, I think wavering ex-Lib Dems may have been more swung by the fear of Labour being propped up by the SNP. And that is kind of what the Tories campaigned on, rather than funding the Ethiopian Spice Girls.
The Tories campaigned on a package of liberal (lower l) Conservativism (hard C). A package of both "brain" (balancing the books) and "heart" (gay marriage, ringfences).
A package is like a tower of Jenga blocks. Once piece may or may not be able to be removed without collapsing the entire tower, but do it indelicately or remove what seems like a trivial piece can result in the whole edifice crumbling.
Funnily enough, I found myself attacking the Tories from the left at the weekend. My friend was defending the Tories new strike laws as it was in the country's interest. But I think the Tories are making a mistake as it looks bad (the Tories winning a majority with 37% of the vote) and every time a union goes on strike it makes the public less sympathetic to their cause.
Comments
Zac Goldsmith came under growing pressure to run for Mayor of London today as one of Labour’s most senior London leaders admitted he could beat her party.
Labour’s alarm bells rang at the same time as bookmakers reported a sudden flurry of bets totalling thousands of pounds had this week been staked on the Heathrow rebel Tory MP.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/labour-fears-as-zac-goldsmith-is-tipped-to-run-for-mayor-10296868.html
NB they should have been worried four weeks ago
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/676862/#Comment_676862
The only thing that might square the circle is to somehow make military support somehow part of international aid. Perhaps the logistics budget or some operational budgets.
Edited extra bit: to be clear, it's the exact same spending, they just change the name under which it happens. No real cut to Defence.
John McCain will have to find some new useful idiots.
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/mccain-urges-military-strikes-against-fifa
Team America, World Police.
In all honesty, I'd prefer a sensible level of rearmament and moderate re-expansion now the economy is on the mend. Just as Australia and, to a lesser extent, Canada is doing. Not to warmonger, but because the security situation has immeasurably deteriorated since 2010GE and we need a credible detterent force that can work in conjunction with our allies.
The whole of MENA is close to going rat-shit and we have Russia fully threatening Ukraine, and possibly the Baltic States. Crossing our fingers and hoping for the best is not a sensible strategic decision to make.
A Chelsea supporter, then?
You lot really will not brook any criticism of the SNP, or anyone in it, at all, will you?
The Tories fought on a manifesto commitment to increase/ringfence the aid budget.
That trumps any opinion poll
Besides even if all 800 Conservative votes lost had gone directly to Labour, then removing that still makes the seat a Labour hold. The swing needed by the SNP was simply too much when seriously nasty comments by their candidate were uncovered - it had nothing to do with tactical voting.
If anti-SNP tactical voting was real, Labour would have held far more than just one seat.
The data from the European Union's drug monitoring body found the capital slightly ahead of Amsterdam.
While London comes top for cocaine flushed down the toilet, Amsterdam's drains contain greater amounts of cannabis.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33009682
How much come from Islington area?
It's a given that folk on here (let's call them PB Tories) that happily dish it out, jump on a stool screeching with their bloomers exposed the moment they get even a mild return of serve. You typify that.
Really is
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/snp-accused-of-gagging-own-mps-like-stalin-1-3732693
Alex Salmond could take a shit in a Nats living room and they'd tell us it was a work of art.
The only one on here with whom I've ever have a constructive, thought-provoking conversation was Stuart Dickson, who I miss. Sadly, we see very little of him these days.
As a postscript, and despite his extraordinarily disproportionate insults to critiques, there are occasional flashes of insight from Malcolmg too.
Tell me what you disagree with in that and I'll tell you.
@MSmithsonPB: On 40th anniversary of the 1975 EEC referendum this Saturday BBC Parliament showing repeat of results programme.
Mr. Royale, aye, it's a shame Mr. Dickson isn't seen much now.
Yet, the overwhelming majority of the public voted for parties in favour of increasing the aid budget.
Incidentally, if you'd bothered to read my comment properly, you'll see I paid Sturgeon and Robertson a compliment and made an observation on how the SNP could have organised themselves to successfully achieve their ultimate goal last year.
But I guess you were too short-sighted to see past the initial criticism. And, indeed, any criticism.
A reactionary, in your eyes, is anyone who 'reacts' negatively to anything anyone from the SNP says, does or writes.
Its a cult - and the Great Salmond must be defended at all costs and under any circumstances....
But also the Labour candidate deserves credit. He had worked much harder than most Labour MPs - presumably realising the implications of the thin majority with which he had won the seat, to begin with. For instance, he was involved in the supporters' organization tackling the problems which Heart of Midlothian FC had had. That is an incumbency bonus, but any suh bonus, by definition, has been eliminated for 58 out of 59 constituencies in Scotland as far as Labour are concerned, at least for Westminster. A Tory might well vote for Mr Murray, but a new candidate from SLAB, perhaps without any track record (such as a councillor)?
Tactical voting didn't occur in any considerable degree. Tory vote varied by well under a thousand, while Labour won by a few thousand. Crediting this to tactical voting is factually incorrect.
Even if you deducted the entire reduction in Tory votes from Labour and added them ALL to the SNP instead, the SNP would still have lost. There was no tactical victory.
It's frankly boring - however, it'd be a mistake for them to interpret my lack of response as accepting their position. I just can't be bothered with wasting pixels discussing issues that they're deaf to. We had it in spades before SIndy, now we've got the swaggering about in the HoC. Children fighting about who sits at the back of bus is spot on.
Ask yourself, why did so many Lib Dems switch to the Tories at this election, was it because David Cameron showed himself to be a true Liberal Conservative, things like supporting gay marriage and increasing the aid budget did it.
It is a contributory reason why Dave has 330 times as many MPs as UKIP
Mr. Divvie, was there a Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament in 1706?
Still fail to see why you appear to consider me an English reactionary.
But its a cult, and any criticism is apostasy....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00t9sk3/election-2015-1-election-2015-part-1
Scrapheap and I haven't been watching this, or Sky's version for the last four weeks, honest.
They really are in desperate straits. I see no evidence that there is demos stupid enough to elect 326 MPs on this sort of platform.
At some point, some Labour leader is going to have to say "It's true - we really do always wreck the economy. We really are sorry. And we really do want to change."
They are nowhere neat any of these right now. And if they were - they'd join the Tories.
What is permissable, nay hilarious, for PB Tories to call others:
A smug, pompous prick
Nazis
Gestapo
Fascists
Stalinists
racists
scum
a*rseholes
w*nkers
traitors
What is not permissable for others to call PB Tories as it will result in tears before bedtime:
all of the above plus
PB Tories
The ****
Loyalists
Reactionaries
Britnats
A package is like a tower of Jenga blocks. Once piece may or may not be able to be removed without collapsing the entire tower, but do it indelicately or remove what seems like a trivial piece can result in the whole edifice crumbling.
A Liberal Democrat bill that protects spending on foreign aid has survived an attempt by a group of Conservative MPs to kill it off with a lengthy filibuster.
The international development bill cleared the House of Commons on Friday, despite dozens of wrecking amendments laid by Tory MPs who attempted to make it run out of parliamentary time.
http://bit.ly/1dgXobE
This piece from politico.com highlights the growing concern among Democrats at Hillary's rising unfavourables and her appalling untrustworthy numbers.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/hillary-clintons-poll-numbers-signal-trouble-ahead-118567.html?hp=lc2_4
I did not post a similar piece from Fox News yesterday as it would be discounted for reason of its source, even though the underlying poll numbers are from two different left-leaning pollsters, Quinnipiac and CNN/ORC.
Two points for those betting:
1. It might make sense to bet on Bloomberg winning both the Democratic nomination and the Presidential if you can get good odds. He has not declared and probably won't unless Hillary's numbers continue to tank. If they do, he'll be under pressure to run as a way to hold the centre for the Dems (as Hillary estranges Independents in fending off the liberal attacks within her own party). And he'll be sorely tempted to run if he thinks he can win. If he does run, he'd be a formidable candidate for the party, even with his baggage of having been a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent and then a Democrat.
2. If he does not run, and Hillary stays the course to win the nomination, take bets on the Republican candidate provided it's not Cruz, Perry or Rand. The polling numbers now giving the presumptive Dem candidate Hillary low single digit leads against the GOP field, with lower name recognition and uncertainty about who it will be, are of polls of all adults. These are the most favourable numbers for the Dems. Registered Voter numbers are less favourable, and Likely Voters even less so. These raw numbers would probably translate into most the GOP candidates leading Hillary if there were adjusted for the above factors.
If ever there was a dog in the manger, it was him. I'm truly delighted his pontificating with hindsight/Lord Oakeshott sock puppet is no more.
That I disliked him more than Balls says a lot.
It was a miracle I didn't need to change my underwear that night.
The protest share of the vote which UKIP shares went DOWN.
But, quite apart from what Mr Thompson says, one can consider the decision making involved. In GE2010 Edinburgh South was a Labour (34.7%) -LD (37)marginal with the Tories not too far behind at 21.6 and the SNP nowhere (7.7).
Assuming that (a) I believed the polling about a SNP wave and (b) wanted to keep the SNP out but was also (c) a Tory, but also (d) realised the collapse of the LD vote, should I have voted Labour? Not an easy decision, as it would involve some pretty sophisticated decisions about what was - for all I knew - a 4 way marginal.
Not trying to be pernickety - just that it interests me because I had dinner with some friends who live in the constituency the other week and we talked about it.
Casino Royale and Plato
Plato "I generally refrain from commenting on ANY Scottish posts as I can't be bothered with the piling on/cultist reaction from most SNPers.
It's frankly boring - however, it'd be a mistake for them to interpret my lack of response as accepting their position. I just can't be bothered with wasting pixels discussing issues that they're deaf to. We had it in spades before SIndy, now we've got the swaggering about in the HoC. Children fighting about who sits at the back of bus is spot on."
Casino "I agree with all of that 100%, Plato. That's exactly what I think"
Having just watched Stuart Hosie's (SNP Treasury Spokesman/Deputy Leader) effective speech critiquing Osborne's economic plans, I suggest those of you-a ridiculous number of PBers-really ought to do so as well. This follows on from excellent maiden speeches from a number of "children"
You might actually learn something rather than dismissing the SNP as wayward children. They are anything but, and more importantly, the people of Scotland agree with me on that issue in ever increasing numbers.
Unionist arrogance and ignorance will end the Union.
.
Scotland next year might give some idea but the position there is so atypical now I would be reluctant to extrapolate. I was speaking to someone in the Lib Dem camp today who pointed out that in several seats that they thought they had a chance in their vote held up quite well but they were simply swamped by the success that the SNP had in getting previous non voters out to vote. The increase in turnout in Scotland was remarkable and makes any read over of the new weightings impossible.
Again
The Guardian piece says they expected 7-10. That's a lot more than 1. I'm intrigued where they were.
I expected the SLAB ground game to be hampered by complacency going back decades, but that even LHQ was out so far makes me wonder WTF was going on.
The video diary from Julian Glover [IIRC] was illuminating.