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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON takes 12% lead in ComRe/Mail poll which uses new method

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  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    TimT It tends to follow though, the presidents who saw the greatest economic growth and tended not to be too involved in unsuccesful foreign conflicts tended to have the highest approval rating

    But mere economic growth is not a measure of greatness either. It is overcoming difficult challenges or progressing society at large. No-one thinks of economic growth (or even knows what is was under their leaderships) when thinking of the greatness of Washington, jefferson or Lincoln - even Kennedy or LBJ.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    notme said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD Given UKIP's influence in committees etc they do affect EU legislation

    I must admit, I haven't heard of a single example of UKIP actually implementing policy in the EU.
    They managed to get a referendum on our continued membership of the EU, and both the major parties running around talking about limiting immigration.

    I think they might take that as a win when it comes to influence.
    I think the 79 Tory rebels had more to do with Cameron adopting a referendum than the zero MPs and single-digit polling that UKIP had at the time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    TimT Well public opinion polls tend to give all those presidents you approve high approval ratings anyway, but economic growth obviously is perhaps the number 1 factor for those who had to live through different presidencies
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Margaret Burgess (Cunningham South) to retire. Born in 1949, first elected in 2011.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    RobD Obviously as the UK is 1 nation of many in the EU Parliament they cannot lead legislation to the same extent, but they do have the most UK MEPs and their main aim remains to exit the EU, if that was achieved their electoral support would likely diminish. Similarly if Scotland obtained independence the SNP's support would likely diminish too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    PTIts a Westminster election which because of FPTP saw SNP MP numbers exceed UKIP's solely because of their sole succcess in 1 UK region, had a PR system been used UKIP would have won many times more MPs than the SNP
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    MikeK said:

    Vicky #No2EU ‏@2tweetaboutit 3m3 minutes ago
    #UKIP Deputy Leader @paulnuttallukip on #RoyalMail http://www.ukip.org/three_eu_postal_services_directives_lie_behind_the_destruction_of_the_royal_mail

    UKIP Deputy Leader Paul Nuttall MEP: “It is rarely mentioned in the media but three EU Postal Services Directives lie behind the destruction of the Royal Mail. UKIP opposed these which were implemented initially by Labour while in government.

    “Under EU state aid rules the UK Government is strictly forbidden from helping the Royal Mail with taxpayers’ money and this means that in future it could go bust and completely disappear.

    “This final part of the privatisation means we will be left with a completely destroyed Royal Mail, once a proud British institution that did so much more than just deliver letters. We can thank the EU for that.

    “Even if it does survive I fear that Royal Mail could well end up 100% in foreign ownership, just like much of our utility companies and railways. What a sad outcome for this historic business.”

    So UKIP are against privatisation and in favour of state aid?

    Yet we're supposed to consider them a right-wing party?
    That does sound a little odd. British Rail was split up due to an EU directive, and it has gone from strength to strength since.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2015
    Re FIFA - saw a comment elsewhere saying that in Zurich, there's loads of FIFA employee CVs doing the rounds - looks like a lot of people are running for the lifeboats.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2015
    Adam Voges has become the oldest player to score a Test century on debut, (Australia vs West Indies in Dominica):

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/west-indies-v-australia-2015/engine/match/810423.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    edited June 2015
    Off topic. Re: FIFA and the Irish FA. what's the difference between a bribe and an out of court settlement. Id say it was more like the latter, given the money wasn't exactly used to enrich someone personally.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD So what, the fact it did not even stand in most Westminster seats confirms the SNP is a party of protest at Westminster elections

    Seriously? That party happens to be in government in Scotland.
    A pocket money government. My main objection to FPTP is that it rewards regional parties demanding lots of pork. I'd like to set up a Surrey, Sussex and Hampshire Party and demand more pork for people living in those counties.
    The Wessex Regionalists are still going, and nowadays include Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire in their definition of Wessex, so getting them to add Surrey and Sussex might be a contender.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    There's something about sports scandals that have me glued. The FIFA RICO debacle is just such rich pickings for grisly entertainment.
    RobD said:

    Off topic. Re: FIFA and the Irish FA. what's the difference between a bribe and an out of court settlement. Id say it was more like the latter, given the money wasn't exactly used to enrich someone personally.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    PT The yougov on 23rd Jan 2013 when Cameron announced his referendum had UKIP on 13%
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    RobD said:

    Off topic. Re: FIFA and the Irish FA. what's the difference between a bribe and an out of court settlement. Id say it was more like the latter, given the money wasn't exactly used to enrich someone personally.

    In my opinion (and IANAL) it is the secrecy that makes the former a possibility. If they'd said at the time: "a financial settlement has been reached, but the terms are being kept secret", then fair enough: someone could have tried challenging the secrecy of the terms of the settlement in the courts.

    The secrecy of the entire deal (if in fact there was one) allows a multitude of sins to be hidden.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    HYUFD said:

    PT The yougov on 23rd Jan 2013 when Cameron announced his referendum had UKIP on 13%
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Fairly accurate for their final share, and two and a half years prior, too!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    RobD said:

    Off topic. Re: FIFA and the Irish FA. what's the difference between a bribe and an out of court settlement. Id say it was more like the latter, given the money wasn't exactly used to enrich someone personally.

    In my opinion (and IANAL) it is the secrecy that makes the former a possibility. If they'd said at the time: "a financial settlement has been reached, but the terms are being kept secret", then fair enough: someone could have tried challenging the secrecy of the terms of the settlement in the courts.

    The secrecy of the entire deal (if in fact there was one) allows a multitude of sins to be hidden.
    Are secret deals illegal?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    rpjs said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD So what, the fact it did not even stand in most Westminster seats confirms the SNP is a party of protest at Westminster elections

    Seriously? That party happens to be in government in Scotland.
    A pocket money government. My main objection to FPTP is that it rewards regional parties demanding lots of pork. I'd like to set up a Surrey, Sussex and Hampshire Party and demand more pork for people living in those counties.
    The Wessex Regionalists are still going, and nowadays include Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire in their definition of Wessex, so getting them to add Surrey and Sussex might be a contender.
    They look great! In all seriousness Dave could really do with sorting out this issue. Perhaps this is wishful thinking on my part but I think the SNP could be as damaging to the Yes campaign in the EU referendum as Ukip could be to the No campaign.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    HYUFD said:

    PT UKIP's rise and the rise of the SNP meant there was little real difference in the protest party vote, UKIP's aim of course is exit from the EU as the SNP's is exit from the UK, neither wish to form a majority government at Westminster

    However, the SNP did aim to form, and according to polls had a good chance of forming, part of the government.

    The evidence we have is that it's now the non-SNP vote in Scotland which most closely fits the usual definition of "protest vote". At those elections which are generally regarded as less important, and thus more suitable for registering a protest - Europe and local councils - the SNP does less well. It's at the big elections - Westminster and Holyrood - that they're sweeping the board.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    RobD UKIP were just in double figures when Cameron announced his referendum yes
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    ruliko Farage also wanted a deal with the Tories. As I have pointed out Europe is now arguably more important than both Westminster and Holyrood when it comes to the passage of legislation and the SNP only do well in Scotland on a Scottish protest, not in the UK as a whole, UKIP do best in European elections, neither have a majority across the UK at Westminster or even try to get one
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Off topic. Re: FIFA and the Irish FA. what's the difference between a bribe and an out of court settlement. Id say it was more like the latter, given the money wasn't exactly used to enrich someone personally.

    In my opinion (and IANAL) it is the secrecy that makes the former a possibility. If they'd said at the time: "a financial settlement has been reached, but the terms are being kept secret", then fair enough: someone could have tried challenging the secrecy of the terms of the settlement in the courts.

    The secrecy of the entire deal (if in fact there was one) allows a multitude of sins to be hidden.
    Are secret deals illegal?
    There are at least two types of secrecy (and referring back to something we were talking about the other day): there are the secret secret deals, where people outside have no idea a deal was done, and the known secret deals, where people outside know a deal was reached, but the terms have been kept secret.

    It is obvious that the former, whilst not necessarily illegal, can be used to hide many sins than the latter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Love this opening paragraph

    If knocking on doors and shoving pamphlets through letterboxes were efficient ways to change minds, Britain would have a lot more Jehovah’s Witnesses and a Labour government. Measured in pavements pounded, Ed Miliband’s election campaign was a success. A target of four million doorstep conversations was met and exceeded. Every weekend, activists fanned out across target seats, armed with clipboards and flyers, bringing the good news.

    But the news was awful. Of Labour’s many election disappointments, perhaps the sharpest is the failure of traditional canvassing to yield votes. Constituencies where the opposition challenger’s “contact rate” vastly outstripped that of the Tory incumbent saw Conservative majorities increase. One problem was selling a product not enough people wanted to buy. But the method was also flawed. Many of the interactions were not “conversations” in a meaningful sense of the word: did you vote Labour last time? Will you be voting Labour again? No? Wrong answer. Off to the next door.

    http://bit.ly/1Kd3pTL
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    TSE Bonus for Burnham and helps Corbyn on ballot
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Can you imagine Corbyn as leader? It'd be interesring....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    HYUFD said:

    RobD UKIP were just in double figures when Cameron announced his referendum yes

    Dunno about you, but I'm looking forward to the locals next year. Wonder if UKIP will maintain, or fall back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    TSE Canvassing only makes the difference in very tight elections eg Gore probably won the popular vote in 2000 because of his get out the vote
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    HYUFD said:

    RobD UKIP were just in double figures when Cameron announced his referendum yes

    If Labour had included the EU referendum in its manifesto, would that have made any difference to its support levels? Ed could've listed it as number 7 on his Edstone !!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    RobD said:

    @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Can you imagine Corbyn as leader? It'd be interesring....

    Yes. Can you imagine the Lib Dems if he was leader?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    RobD said:

    @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Can you imagine Corbyn as leader? It'd be interesring....
    Were he to become Labour leader, it might be the best political news of the year, which is some achievement, when you consider, we've had a Tory majority, TPD lost his seat, Balls and Cable also did so.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    RobD said:

    @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Can you imagine Corbyn as leader? It'd be interesring....
    Were he to become Labour leader, it might be the best political news of the year, which is some achievement, when you consider, we've had a Tory majority, TPD lost his seat, Balls and Cable also did so.
    One day we're going to wake up and it'll be 21:59 on May 7th. :p
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    philiph said:

    RobD said:

    @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Can you imagine Corbyn as leader? It'd be interesring....
    Yes. Can you imagine the Lib Dems if he was leader?
    The sad thing about party politics is that a good number of Labour voters would still vote Labour if Cameron was leader, or Conservatives Conservative if Miliband had led them.

    It's the crapness of people who treat political parties as if they were football teams. You join in your youth and stick with them for life, whatever happens.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Can you imagine Corbyn as leader? It'd be interesring....
    Were he to become Labour leader, it might be the best political news of the year, which is some achievement, when you consider, we've had a Tory majority, TPD lost his seat, Balls and Cable also did so.
    One day we're going to wake up and it'll be 21:59 on May 7th. :p
    That's my fear.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    HYUFD said:

    ruliko Farage also wanted a deal with the Tories. As I have pointed out Europe is now arguably more important than both Westminster and Holyrood when it comes to the passage of legislation and the SNP only do well in Scotland on a Scottish protest, not in the UK as a whole, UKIP do best in European elections, neither have a majority across the UK at Westminster or even try to get one

    Whether Europe is the most important election or not, it's very clear from turnout that the voters don't consider it to be. Again, if the SNP vote were primarily a protest one, you'd expect them to prosper most in such low-turnout elections, as UKIP and the Greens do, but the opposite is true.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Can you imagine Corbyn as leader? It'd be interesring....
    Were he to become Labour leader, it might be the best political news of the year, which is some achievement, when you consider, we've had a Tory majority, TPD lost his seat, Balls and Cable also did so.
    One day we're going to wake up and it'll be 21:59 on May 7th. :p
    That's my fear.
    Then Dimbleby announces -- Tory: 416
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    Has anyone noticed that a second tranche of 'black spider' letters from Prince Charles has been released? You know, the ones the BBC and Guardian salivated over in the belief they would show the royal family to be EVIL?

    No?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    New Fred
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Has anyone noticed that a second tranche of 'black spider' letters from Prince Charles has been released? You know, the ones the BBC and Guardian salivated over in the belief they would show the royal family to be EVIL?

    No?

    Damp squib comes to mind.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    edited June 2015
    According to Betfair, David Miliband is more than twice as likely to be the next Labour leader as Jeremy Corbyn.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    rullko said:

    According to Betfair, David Miliband is more than twice as likely to be the next Labour leader as Jeremy Corbyn.

    I'd lay David Miliband even larger if it wasn't for the pesky time value of money problem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    RobD Will depend on the government's popularity I imagine
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Calum A minor difference with a few wwc voters who voted UKIP perhaps
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    rullko Yet the SNP only benefit from a high turnout in Scotland, their region of protest, they do not even stand elsewhere in the UK
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2015
    HYUFD said:

    MikeK Royal Mail is now making a profit and its share price is still higher than when it was privatised, its problem is too much state interference not too little because it still has the universal service obligation, as a private company its prices should be set by market forces and not government diktat, if the government wants the same price to deliver to the Outer Hebrides as Inner London then the government should provide a subsidy for it

    I don't suppose the pension obligation that was hived off onto the tax payer has anything to do with it?
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