Sorry if already posted but what do people think about Dan Jarvis MP as Labour's next leader? A former Parachute Regiment Commander,single father for a time after his wife died of cancer, Barnsley MP, not associated with divisions of Blair-left etc
There are a lot of pro-Jarvis posts on the previous thread iirc but most seemed to come from the right. The consensus was that he has an impressive biography. Whether he has the necessary political experience to lead the party, or the popularity within it to be elected, are other questions.
Popularity is an issue, but given he commanded men in the army, I think he can command a political party
'permission to speak, sir!'
?
I doubt it'll go down like that, but it'd be quite funny if that did happen!
Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.
I was just in a Wetherspoons in Angel, Islington (not my normal drinking estab, but the GF likes her cheap Sailor Jerrys). What struck me was how casually, automatically, unthinkingly multiracial it was - black, brown, white, and Polish, English, Spanish, with not even a hint of awareness of racial difference. Just everyone drinking, dancing and snogging (such is modern Britain, or at least London).
And yet there was an elephant not in the room. Islam.
Race has never been (or at least today is not) the problem. Cultural differences are. Multiculturalism which is supported by Labour, the Tories, the Liberals and UKIP is the problem. It won't stop. Without a strong domestic culture I really don;t see what England can do., it won't create any civic society.
What's wrong with multiculturalism? Most people who attack it are just using the issue as a smokescreen for their Islamophobia.
Chuka Umunna is exactly the leader Labour do NOT need!! Smarmy, London-elite, metrosexual, Blairite that holds the core Labour support in contempt. David Lammy is a much much better candidate.
Dan Jarvis is my favourite for leader but Lammy is second, if he doesn't run for London Mayor.
Sorry if already posted but what do people think about Dan Jarvis MP as Labour's next leader? A former Parachute Regiment Commander,single father for a time after his wife died of cancer, Barnsley MP, not associated with divisions of Blair-left etc
There are a lot of pro-Jarvis posts on the previous thread iirc but most seemed to come from the right. The consensus was that he has an impressive biography. Whether he has the necessary political experience to lead the party, or the popularity within it to be elected, are other questions.
Popularity is an issue, but given he commanded men in the army, I think he can command a political party
Very different organisations. A political party is voluntary and consultative, even argumentative body. A parachute regiment battalion is heirarchichal and subject to Queens regulations.
Do you think even very very strong (Sturgeonesque in Scotland) leadership ratings can't win the next Election for Labour with the SNP about ?
I don't catch your drift. Elaborate!
Well it seems to my mind that the SNP did well in Scotland because Sturgeon's leader ratings were very decent, and Tories in England because of Dave's PM ratings/leader ratings.
Or do the Labour leader ratings not actually matter a jot if the next Con leader has decent PM ratings ?
Why, he was as guilty as the Tories for the racist lies about Scotland. He repeated anti-Scottish rhetoric on an hourly basis. If I cost him a seat, good. In reality he just didn't get the votes he needed. He was a failure.
You can't really blame people when Alex Salmond was going around saying the SNP would be writing Labour's budget. Hopefully they get FFA and can look on as they squirm.
I can't blame people for not understanding a joke? The Tories were putting up billboards with Ed Miliband in Alex and then Nicola's pocket. Then posters about Nicola puppeteering miliband.
The only people to blame for Labour's defeat are Labour. The only people to blame for the end of the Union are the Tories and their UKIP friends.
Bullshit. If the Union ends then the people responsible are those whose life work was ending it, the SNP.
If the Union ends its be an incredible SNP success story. Own it.
Sorry if already posted but what do people think about Dan Jarvis MP as Labour's next leader? A former Parachute Regiment Commander,single father for a time after his wife died of cancer, Barnsley MP, not associated with divisions of Blair-left etc
There are a lot of pro-Jarvis posts on the previous thread iirc but most seemed to come from the right. The consensus was that he has an impressive biography. Whether he has the necessary political experience to lead the party, or the popularity within it to be elected, are other questions.
Popularity is an issue, but given he commanded men in the army, I think he can command a political party
Very different organisations. A political party is voluntary and consultative, even argumentative body. A parachute regiment battalion is heirarchichal and subject to Queens regulations.
That's true, but I guess I was trying to say that he does, at the very least have some leadership skills - which is more than Ed Miliband had.
PT No, Obama also won big margins with the Hispanic and Asian vote, more than Kerry won and got more ethnic minority voters to the polls, not just with Black voters. Of course if Labour got almost all those 3% of black voters to the polls and increased black turnout as Obama did that also is not to be sniffed at. In 2012 ethnic minority turnout in the US actually rose higher than white turnout
As I said a quarter of the USA is not white. The same can't be said in the UK.
The situations aren't remotely the same.
The way to win is to target a majority of people, not a fraction.
Fox Streatham has plenty of Asian voters and Umunna increased his majority by more than 10,000 there
Labour has no problem winning and stacking up votes in London, it's in the English marginals we need to win and Umunna is not the person to get them back for Labour.
Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.
I was just in a Wetherspoons in Angel, Islington (not my normal drinking estab, but the GF likes her cheap Sailor Jerrys). What struck me was how casually, automatically, unthinkingly multiracial it was - black, brown, white, and Polish, English, Spanish, with not even a hint of awareness of racial difference. Just everyone drinking, dancing and snogging (such is modern Britain, or at least London).
And yet there was an elephant not in the room. Islam.
Race has never been (or at least today is not) the problem. Cultural differences are. Multiculturalism which is supported by Labour, the Tories, the Liberals and UKIP is the problem. It won't stop. Without a strong domestic culture I really don;t see what England can do., it won't create any civic society.
What's wrong with multiculturalism? Most people who attack it are just using the issue as a smokescreen for their Islamophobia.
Chuka Umunna is exactly the leader Labour do NOT need!! Smarmy, London-elite, metrosexual, Blairite that holds the core Labour support in contempt. David Lammy is a much much better candidate.
Dan Jarvis is my favourite for leader but Lammy is second, if he doesn't run for London Mayor.
The problem with multiculturalism is that it encourages diverse cultures to exist side by side without integration. That endangers social solidarity, and causes politics to move from being about the battle of ideas to simply ethnic competition for the spoils of office. Recent events in Tower Hamlets demonstrate what the future could look like if we follow that path. The situation there also showed how some people use the label "Islamophobic" to stifle accurate criticism and dissent.
Pinkrose Lammy is personable but not very bright, as his Mastermind appearance showed. Umunna is far more articulate, Umunna leader -Jarvis deputy would be best
"and all the polls say Labour are 6 points ahead, an amazing turnaround from 2015, for the New New Labour party. However, experts say Labour are still likely to fall short of an overall majority. Labour leader Mary Creagh has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP. She has even written it in her own blood on the wall of Labour Party HQ in London..."
Voters: "Just show me the box marked Conservative..."
No one knows what 5 years will hold. I remember people saying Labour would never win again in 1992.
I remember people saying the Tories might not win a majority for a generation, after 1997.
And, as it turned out, they were completely right.
Nationalist Scotland (and now UKIP and potentially PC) represent an existential threat to Labour, like nothing your party has seen before. Ignoring this truth is utterly stupid.
Saying it's too early to write anything off does not imply anything is ignored.
PS Congratulations on your prescient observation that 2015 would be another 1992. You nailed it, unlike me (and others).
I shall regard your predictions with the requisite respect, in future.
And in return I will offer sincere advice: I really do think this is not another average defeat for Labour, it is possibly epochal, unless the party learns. Scotland changes everything, and the exciting habit of Not Voting Labour might easily spread southwards.
How do you feel the budgetary pressures this coalition will be working under impact that? 2010 to 2015 will be a picnic compared to this parliament. Outside of specific areas, we have had more consolidation rather than real reductions. But real departmental reductions are part of the budget now. How are they going to find these £12 billion welfare cuts without seriously pissing off a load of people?
No the hardest work was done last time. I'm sure Osborne has a good idea and plan worked out on what to do from here.
As for the best way to cut welfare, it's getting more people working and paying taxes and less on welfare in the first place. The Tories got 2 million more into work last time, do the same again now and the welfare budget will fall.
Dair And the only people to blame for voting to keep Scotland in the Union are the Scots themselves, only 35% of Scots voted SNP on Thursday, about 50% of Scots voted No last September
Oooh fancy tactics. Your 50% is 47% btw. And irrelevant. Only those that vote count. Today 50% of Scotland voted SNP for Independence and freedom. Next year there will be a Referendum on the bill.
After a full year of Tory disaster, It will be a Yes vote.
Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.
I was just in a Wetherspoons in Angel, Islington (not my normal drinking estab, but the GF likes her cheap Sailor Jerrys). What struck me was how casually, automatically, unthinkingly multiracial it was - black, brown, white, and Polish, English, Spanish, with not even a hint of awareness of racial difference. Just everyone drinking, dancing and snogging (such is modern Britain, or at least London).
And yet there was an elephant not in the room. Islam.
Race has never been (or at least today is not) the problem. Cultural differences are. Multiculturalism which is supported by Labour, the Tories, the Liberals and UKIP is the problem. It won't stop. Without a strong domestic culture I really don;t see what England can do., it won't create any civic society.
What's wrong with multiculturalism? Most people who attack it are just using the issue as a smokescreen for their Islamophobia.
Chuka Umunna is exactly the leader Labour do NOT need!! Smarmy, London-elite, metrosexual, Blairite that holds the core Labour support in contempt. David Lammy is a much much better candidate.
Dan Jarvis is my favourite for leader but Lammy is second, if he doesn't run for London Mayor.
Exactly. It is about class. Chuka is a posh public school bloke who happens to be black. Lammy is a different class entirely, with direct personal experience of hardship.
Why, he was as guilty as the Tories for the racist lies about Scotland. He repeated anti-Scottish rhetoric on an hourly basis. If I cost him a seat, good. In reality he just didn't get the votes he needed. He was a failure.
You can't really blame people when Alex Salmond was going around saying the SNP would be writing Labour's budget. Hopefully they get FFA and can look on as they squirm.
I can't blame people for not understanding a joke? The Tories were putting up billboards with Ed Miliband in Alex and then Nicola's pocket. Then posters about Nicola puppeteering miliband.
The only people to blame for Labour's defeat are Labour. The only people to blame for the end of the Union are the Tories and their UKIP friends.
Bullshit. If the Union ends then the people responsible are those whose life work was ending it, the SNP.
If the Union ends its be an incredible SNP success story. Own it.
I suspect that the 'incredible success' depends on what they get after independence, and we're back to the currency / EU / UN etc stuff again.
Dair And the only people to blame for voting to keep Scotland in the Union are the Scots themselves, only 35% of Scots voted SNP on Thursday, about 50% of Scots voted No last September
Oooh fancy tactics. Your 50% is 47% btw. And irrelevant. Only those that vote count. Today 50% of Scotland voted SNP for Independence and freedom. Next year there will be a Referendum on the bill.
After a full year of Tory disaster, It will be a Yes vote.
Don't get our hopes up. You promised that last time but failed to deliver.
Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.
I was just in a Wetherspoons in Angel, Islington (not my normal drinking estab, but the GF likes her cheap Sailor Jerrys). What struck me was how casually, automatically, unthinkingly multiracial it was - black, brown, white, and Polish, English, Spanish, with not even a hint of awareness of racial difference. Just everyone drinking, dancing and snogging (such is modern Britain, or at least London).
And yet there was an elephant not in the room. Islam.
Race has never been (or at least today is not) the problem. Cultural differences are. Multiculturalism which is supported by Labour, the Tories, the Liberals and UKIP is the problem. It won't stop. Without a strong domestic culture I really don;t see what England can do., it won't create any civic society.
What's wrong with multiculturalism? Most people who attack it are just using the issue as a smokescreen for their Islamophobia.
Chuka Umunna is exactly the leader Labour do NOT need!! Smarmy, London-elite, metrosexual, Blairite that holds the core Labour support in contempt. David Lammy is a much much better candidate.
Dan Jarvis is my favourite for leader but Lammy is second, if he doesn't run for London Mayor.
The problem with multiculturalism is that it encourages diverse cultures to exist side by side without integration. That endangers social solidarity, and causes politics to move from being about the battle of ideas to simply ethnic competition for the spoils of office. Recent events in Tower Hamlets demonstrate what the future could look like if we follow that path. The situation there also showed how some people use the label "Islamophobic" to stifle accurate criticism and dissent.
Disagree sorry, but it's people who dislike or even hate Islamic cultural practices that are always banging on about multiculturalism and banging on about "integration". What is English culture anyway that they are not integrating with?
Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.
I was just in a Wetherspoons in Angel, Islington (not my normal drinking estab, but the GF likes her cheap Sailor Jerrys). What struck me was how casually, automatically, unthinkingly multiracial it was - black, brown, white, and Polish, English, Spanish, with not even a hint of awareness of racial difference. Just everyone drinking, dancing and snogging (such is modern Britain, or at least London).
And yet there was an elephant not in the room. Islam.
Race has never been (or at least today is not) the problem. Cultural differences are. Multiculturalism which is supported by Labour, the Tories, the Liberals and UKIP is the problem. It won't stop. Without a strong domestic culture I really don;t see what England can do., it won't create any civic society.
What's wrong with multiculturalism? Most people who attack it are just using the issue as a smokescreen for their Islamophobia.
Multiculturalism creates differences between population within a distinct geographic area, it is anti-integration and causes long term issues and ghettoisation.
Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.
I was just in a Wetherspoons in Angel, Islington (not my normal drinking estab, but the GF likes her cheap Sailor Jerrys). What struck me was how casually, automatically, unthinkingly multiracial it was - black, brown, white, and Polish, English, Spanish, with not even a hint of awareness of racial difference. Just everyone drinking, dancing and snogging (such is modern Britain, or at least London).
And yet there was an elephant not in the room. Islam.
Race has never been (or at least today is not) the problem. Cultural differences are. Multiculturalism which is supported by Labour, the Tories, the Liberals and UKIP is the problem. It won't stop. Without a strong domestic culture I really don;t see what England can do., it won't create any civic society.
What's wrong with multiculturalism? Most people who attack it are just using the issue as a smokescreen for their Islamophobia.
Multiculturalism creates differences between population within a distinct geographic area, it is anti-integration and causes long term issues and ghettoisation.
The people who are not "integrating" currently, as you see it, what exactly should they be doing that they are not? I am genuinely interested because I hear this but no-one ever mentions any specific things,which leads me to conclude it's just a smokescreen for their dislike or even hatred of Islam.
Dair And the only people to blame for voting to keep Scotland in the Union are the Scots themselves, only 35% of Scots voted SNP on Thursday, about 50% of Scots voted No last September
Oooh fancy tactics. Your 50% is 47% btw. And irrelevant. Only those that vote count. Today 50% of Scotland voted SNP for Independence and freedom. Next year there will be a Referendum on the bill.
After a full year of Tory disaster, It will be a Yes vote.
Weren't we told by Sturgeon that the vote wasn't about independence?
Why, he was as guilty as the Tories for the racist lies about Scotland. He repeated anti-Scottish rhetoric on an hourly basis. If I cost him a seat, good. In reality he just didn't get the votes he needed. He was a failure.
You can't really blame people when Alex Salmond was going around saying the SNP would be writing Labour's budget. Hopefully they get FFA and can look on as they squirm.
I can't blame people for not understanding a joke? The Tories were putting up billboards with Ed Miliband in Alex and then Nicola's pocket. Then posters about Nicola puppeteering miliband.
The only people to blame for Labour's defeat are Labour. The only people to blame for the end of the Union are the Tories and their UKIP friends.
Bullshit. If the Union ends then the people responsible are those whose life work was ending it, the SNP.
If the Union ends its be an incredible SNP success story. Own it.
Utterly ridiculous. A peaceful independence movement like the SNP can only ever succeed when they are given boosts by the conservative parties (in our case Unionists). Without Scotland being forced out, it probably wouldn't leave. But Farage and Cameron are making it happen.
Sorry if already posted but what do people think about Dan Jarvis MP as Labour's next leader? A former Parachute Regiment Commander,single father for a time after his wife died of cancer, Barnsley MP, not associated with divisions of Blair-left etc
There are a lot of pro-Jarvis posts on the previous thread iirc but most seemed to come from the right. The consensus was that he has an impressive biography. Whether he has the necessary political experience to lead the party, or the popularity within it to be elected, are other questions.
Popularity is an issue, but given he commanded men in the army, I think he can command a political party
Very different organisations. A political party is voluntary and consultative, even argumentative body. A parachute regiment battalion is heirarchichal and subject to Queens regulations.
That's true, but I guess I was trying to say that he does, at the very least have some leadership skills - which is more than Ed Miliband had.
Off to bed for me. Good to have you aboard Ms Apocalypse. PB does need more diverse voices, just be tolerent of occasional discussions of the conduct of the Punic wars...
Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.
I was just in a Wetherspoons in Angel, Islington (not my normal drinking estab, but the GF likes her cheap Sailor Jerrys). What struck me was how casually, automatically, unthinkingly multiracial it was - black, brown, white, and Polish, English, Spanish, with not even a hint of awareness of racial difference. Just everyone drinking, dancing and snogging (such is modern Britain, or at least London).
And yet there was an elephant not in the room. Islam.
Race has never been (or at least today is not) the problem. Cultural differences are. Multiculturalism which is supported by Labour, the Tories, the Liberals and UKIP is the problem. It won't stop. Without a strong domestic culture I really don;t see what England can do., it won't create any civic society.
What's wrong with multiculturalism? Most people who attack it are just using the issue as a smokescreen for their Islamophobia.
Chuka Umunna is exactly the leader Labour do NOT need!! Smarmy, London-elite, metrosexual, Blairite that holds the core Labour support in contempt. David Lammy is a much much better candidate.
Dan Jarvis is my favourite for leader but Lammy is second, if he doesn't run for London Mayor.
Exactly. It is about class. Chuka is a posh public school bloke who happens to be black. Lammy is a different class entirely, with direct personal experience of hardship.
Yes. Lammy is also a better communicator than Umunna.
Pinkrose Lammy is personable but not very bright, as his Mastermind appearance showed. Umunna is far more articulate, Umunna leader -Jarvis deputy would be best
You can't have two males as leader and deputy of Labour. It;s not permitted.
Why, he was as guilty as the Tories for the racist lies about Scotland. He repeated anti-Scottish rhetoric on an hourly basis. If I cost him a seat, good. In reality he just didn't get the votes he needed. He was a failure.
You can't really blame people when Alex Salmond was going around saying the SNP would be writing Labour's budget. Hopefully they get FFA and can look on as they squirm.
I can't blame people for not understanding a joke? The Tories were putting up billboards with Ed Miliband in Alex and then Nicola's pocket. Then posters about Nicola puppeteering miliband.
The only people to blame for Labour's defeat are Labour. The only people to blame for the end of the Union are the Tories and their UKIP friends.
Bullshit. If the Union ends then the people responsible are those whose life work was ending it, the SNP.
If the Union ends its be an incredible SNP success story. Own it.
Utterly ridiculous. A peaceful independence movement like the SNP can only ever succeed when they are given boosts by the conservative parties (in our case Unionists). Without Scotland being forced out, it probably wouldn't leave. But Farage and Cameron are making it happen.
A peaceful independence movement can succeed by winning the arguments. The SNP decided to rule out working with the Tories. That makes the SNP (not Scots) our opponents. What arrogance possesses you to think you're free to attack Cameron but he can't attack Surgeon?
Dair No voters turn out when it matters, and a rerun referendum would still be a narrow No as the polls show, the SNP still did not get more than half of the electorate who did vote on Thursday, and in any case Scotland is going to get more powers anyway
Pinkrose Lammy is personable but not very bright, as his Mastermind appearance showed. Umunna is far more articulate, Umunna leader -Jarvis deputy would be best
You can't have two males as leader and deputy of Labour. It;s not permitted.
I'm sure some have ambition so high they'd willingly sacrifice their 'tackle' for the chance.
Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.
I was just in a Wetherspoons in Angel, Islington (not my normal drinking estab, but the GF likes her cheap Sailor Jerrys). What struck me was how casually, automatically, unthinkingly multiracial it was - black, brown, white, and Polish, English, Spanish, with not even a hint of awareness of racial difference. Just everyone drinking, dancing and snogging (such is modern Britain, or at least London).
And yet there was an elephant not in the room. Islam.
Race has never been (or at least today is not) the problem. Cultural differences are. Multiculturalism which is supported by Labour, the Tories, the Liberals and UKIP is the problem. It won't stop. Without a strong domestic culture I really don;t see what England can do., it won't create any civic society.
What's wrong with multiculturalism? Most people who attack it are just using the issue as a smokescreen for their Islamophobia.
Multiculturalism creates differences between population within a distinct geographic area, it is anti-integration and causes long term issues and ghettoisation.
The people who are not "integrating" currently, as you see it, what exactly should they be doing that they are not? I am genuinely interested because I hear this but no-one ever mentions any specific things,which leads me to conclude it's just a smokescreen for their dislike or even hatred of Islam.
There is more to it than that. Malik wrote an excellent essay on what is wrong with multiculturism a few years ago:
The people who are not "integrating" currently, as you see it, what exactly should they be doing that they are not? I am genuinely interested because I hear this but no-one ever mentions any specific things,which leads me to conclude it's just a smokescreen for their dislike or even hatred of Islam.
No idea, I'm not English. It doesnt happen in Scotland that much. Sure there are hold outs like the Sarwars but most Asian immigrants and pretty much all afro-carribean immigrants are quite happy to integrate, get themselves a tartan, feel part of society, integrate their culture with ours and create a better whole. It does work.
Dair And the only people to blame for voting to keep Scotland in the Union are the Scots themselves, only 35% of Scots voted SNP on Thursday, about 50% of Scots voted No last September
Oooh fancy tactics. Your 50% is 47% btw. And irrelevant. Only those that vote count. Today 50% of Scotland voted SNP for Independence and freedom. Next year there will be a Referendum on the bill.
After a full year of Tory disaster, It will be a Yes vote.
Weren't we told by Sturgeon that the vote wasn't about independence?
Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.
I was just in a Wetherspoons in Angel, Islington (not my normal drinking estab, but the GF likes her cheap Sailor Jerrys). What struck me was how casually, automatically, unthinkingly multiracial it was - black, brown, white, and Polish, English, Spanish, with not even a hint of awareness of racial difference. Just everyone drinking, dancing and snogging (such is modern Britain, or at least London).
And yet there was an elephant not in the room. Islam.
Race has never been (or at least today is not) the problem. Cultural differences are. Multiculturalism which is supported by Labour, the Tories, the Liberals and UKIP is the problem. It won't stop. Without a strong domestic culture I really don;t see what England can do., it won't create any civic society.
What's wrong with multiculturalism? Most people who attack it are just using the issue as a smokescreen for their Islamophobia.
Multiculturalism creates differences between population within a distinct geographic area, it is anti-integration and causes long term issues and ghettoisation.
The people who are not "integrating" currently, as you see it, what exactly should they be doing that they are not? I am genuinely interested because I hear this but no-one ever mentions any specific things,which leads me to conclude it's just a smokescreen for their dislike or even hatred of Islam.
One good example of whether an ethnic group is integrated is whether they tend to cluster in neighbourhoods of their own group or not. Another is whether they have a strong preference for voting for political candidates of their own background over those of other backgrounds. Another is whether there is a cultural acceptance for getting married and having children with people from outside their group.
Dair No voters turn out when it matters, and a rerun referendum would still be a narrow No as the polls show, the SNP still did not get more than half of the electorate who did vote on Thursday, and in any case Scotland is going to get more powers anyway
It's been 6 months, about half of your majority is dead.
Just a point about well he is a posho, he is from a normal background etc....
According to the bible according to Crosby...the data shows it doesn't matter anywhere near as much as the MSM like to bang on about it e.g. Boris vs Red Ken...
What is far more important is that the candidate talking about what the target audience is interested / cares about and is he credible when talking about it and do they have the mood music right. It isn't about a particular background..see Boris doing well with voters who have zero in common with him.
Crosby gives the example of cuts in cost of public transport was the best thing Red Ken came up with and they had to employ the "dead cat strategy" when he did.
I would suggest for instance Miliband banging on and on and on about ZHC's...most of middle England isn't on one, so it is not something that is directly in their sphere of what is super important to them. The people who are concerned most about them are the metro liberals who think it is rather unfair way to treat people, but they aren't going to swing your election for you.
Pinkrose Lammy is personable but not very bright, as his Mastermind appearance showed. Umunna is far more articulate, Umunna leader -Jarvis deputy would be best
You can't have two males as leader and deputy of Labour. It;s not permitted.
I'm sure some have ambition so high they'd willingly sacrifice their 'tackle' for the chance.
Hahah, dude don't make people spew their drink over their computer!!!
Dair No voters turn out when it matters, and a rerun referendum would still be a narrow No as the polls show, the SNP still did not get more than half of the electorate who did vote on Thursday, and in any case Scotland is going to get more powers anyway
It's been 6 months, about half of your majority is dead.
Pure demographics.
They have said that about the Tories for years....
Dair Given average life expectancy is about 80 then it would take 15 years for a majority of the 65+ No voters to die off, and even then some will still be around, not forgetting 18-24 year olds also voted narrowly No
Fox Lammy was a chorister at King's School Peterborough, went to Harvard and became a barrister, hardly Oliver Twist
Pinkrose Yes Lammy is a great communicator as showed by his mastermind answer than Henry VII succeeded Henry VIII!!
While it seems like a quite decent school, it is still a public school and you can';t really hoid that against anyone. It's not like he;s one of the posh boys at private school
Rod Indeed, especially if Cameron ends up leading the In campaign, the cries of 'betrayal' from the eurosceptic right and Kippers could match that of nats to Murphy and Miliband
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
Dair No voters turn out when it matters, and a rerun referendum would still be a narrow No as the polls show, the SNP still did not get more than half of the electorate who did vote on Thursday, and in any case Scotland is going to get more powers anyway
It's been 6 months, about half of your majority is dead.
Pure demographics.
They have said that about the Tories for years....
He was talking about Yes Scotland. The No Vote is dying. Six months in about half the 200k is demographically Yes now. That's without considering change of opinions.
Having not yet recovered from the Thursday night mauling , I wanted to check out my model against the real votes using UNS separately for England, Wales and Scotland.
These are the figures.
Con 319 Lab 243 SNP 55 LD 10 PC 3 GRN 1 SPK 1 NI 18
Total 650
But those weren't your figures which you seem to have conveniently forgotten or hoped nobody would notice.
As posted by you on 6.5.15
'surbiton said: FINAL FORECAST based on the Yougov 10000. England, Scotland and Wales separately calculated by UNS.
LAB 283 CON 271 SNP 52 LD 17 UKIP 3* PC 3 GRN 1 RES 1* SPK 1 NI 18 Total 650
* Only 4 seats were not calculated by UNS. Three have been manually adjusted for UKIP. Clacton, Thanet S from Con and Thurrock from Labour. One for Respect from Labour.
Dair Given average life expectancy is about 80 then it would take 15 years for a majority of the 65+ No voters to die off, and even then some will still be around, not forgetting 18-24 year olds also voted narrowly No
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
Added to which, absent a big SLab recovery, this requires SNP MPs to vote themselves out of jobs. I know they support PR in theory, but they'd be able to find a principled objection to this particular maneuver, or at least an urgent dentist's appointment.
Race has never been (or at least today is not) the problem. Cultural differences are. Multiculturalism which is supported by Labour, the Tories, the Liberals and UKIP is the problem. It won't stop. Without a strong domestic culture I really don;t see what England can do., it won't create any civic society.
What's wrong with multiculturalism? Most people who attack it are just using the issue as a smokescreen for their Islamophobia.
Multiculturalism creates differences between population within a distinct geographic area, it is anti-integration and causes long term issues and ghettoisation.
The people who are not "integrating" currently, as you see it, what exactly should they be doing that they are not? I am genuinely interested because I hear this but no-one ever mentions any specific things,which leads me to conclude it's just a smokescreen for their dislike or even hatred of Islam.
One good example of whether an ethnic group is integrated is whether they tend to cluster in neighbourhoods of their own group or not. Another is whether they have a strong preference for voting for political candidates of their own background over those of other backgrounds. Another is whether there is a cultural acceptance for getting married and having children with people from outside their group.
It's not the fault of ethnic minorities if whites move out en masse, white flight anyone?
Overwhelming majority of BME voters vote for Labour, who last time i looked were overwhelmingly white and middle class, no?
There is much more inter racial mixing going on than you seem to realise. Mixed race is the fastest growing segment of the population. I myself am a white woman married to an Asian man, so i know from first hand experience ;-)
In F1 news, the Haas F1 team will be announcing its driver lineup later in the year. It is based in Kannapolis NC, near Charlotte, which is ground zero for NASCAR teams. It will be a legally separate entity than Stewart-Haas Racing, the NASCAR team.
The team has bought the Marussia facility in Banbury Oxfordshire as its European HQ.
Also Rod you're mistakenly believing that the SNP would want voting reform this Parliament to be part of this extraordinary alliance. They don't. They want independence and have no reason to make this ludicrous alliance work. As we all know know it's in the SNP's interest to have the Tories in power. Why would they kick out their useful London opponents and be seen to be making Westminster work rather than be unworkable? Especially when this means sacrificing half their own seats now.
The SNP would find an excuse to kick this into the long grass.
Dair No voters turn out when it matters, and a rerun referendum would still be a narrow No as the polls show, the SNP still did not get more than half of the electorate who did vote on Thursday, and in any case Scotland is going to get more powers anyway
It's been 6 months, about half of your majority is dead.
Pure demographics.
They have said that about the Tories for years....
He was talking about Yes Scotland. The No Vote is dying. Six months in about half the 200k is demographically Yes now. That's without considering change of opinions.
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
The bet is for it to be introduced BEFORE the election.
So you'd need to
Overcome a Tory majority Overcome the Irish unionists Get the SNP to shoot themselves in the head Get this all rushed through Parliament
Race has never been (or at least today is not) the problem. Cultural differences are. Multiculturalism which is supported by Labour, the Tories, the Liberals and UKIP is the problem. It won't stop. Without a strong domestic culture I really don;t see what England can do., it won't create any civic society.
What's wrong with multiculturalism? Most people who attack it are just using the issue as a smokescreen for their Islamophobia.
Multiculturalism creates differences between population within a distinct geographic area, it is anti-integration and causes long term issues and ghettoisation.
The people who are not "integrating" currently, as you see it, what exactly should they be doing that they are not? I am genuinely interested because I hear this but no-one ever mentions any specific things,which leads me to conclude it's just a smokescreen for their dislike or even hatred of Islam.
One good example of whether an ethnic group is integrated is whether they tend to cluster in neighbourhoods of their own group or not. Another is whether they have a strong preference for voting for political candidates of their own background over those of other backgrounds. Another is whether there is a cultural acceptance for getting married and having children with people from outside their group.
It's not the fault of ethnic minorities if whites move out en masse, white flight anyone?
Overwhelming majority of BME voters vote for Labour, who last time i looked were overwhelmingly white and middle class, no?
There is much more inter racial mixing going on than you seem to realise. Mixed race is the fastest growing segment of the population. I myself am a white woman married to an Asian man, so i know from first hand experience ;-)
I am speaking on the candidate level when they have the choice between someone of their ethnic background and someone who is not.
You seem to be presuming a lot about my realisations on the state of racial mixing considering I have not expressed any.
Dair Chuka went to St Dunstan's and Manchester Uni, Lammy to King's School Peterborough, SOAS and Harvard, if anything David Lammy had the posher education
Also Rod you're mistakenly believing that the SNP would want voting reform this Parliament to be part of this extraordinary alliance. They don't. They want independence and have no reason to make this ludicrous alliance work. As we all know know it's in the SNP's interest to have the Tories in power. Why would they kick out their useful London opponents and be seen to be making Westminster work rather than be unworkable? Especially when this means sacrificing half their own seats now.
The SNP would find an excuse to kick this into the long grass.
I really don't think the SNP MPs give two hoots for Westminster. It's a means to an end.
If they make Labour realise they are fecked for as long as they're there, deals will be done, on PR ... on independence...
Labour don't seem to have any other credible options at the moment.
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
The bet is for it to be introduced BEFORE the election.
So you'd need to
Overcome a Tory majority Overcome the Irish unionists Get the SNP to shoot themselves in the head Get this all rushed through Parliament
All before an election.
I never said before the election. Try to pay attention!
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
Labour need about 50 seats from the Tories. It';s not like they have another choice. Or the Tories. If 2020 happens (as a UK Election) it's purely a Labour vs Tory fight.
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
I doubt they could rope the SNP or Plaid into this, and Lab+LD+Grn for PR probably wouldn't win a majority, since a lot of Lab voters are opposed and in any case hardly anybody cares enough to vote for a bunch of people banging on about the voting system over people talking about the economy or whatever.
Maybe they could pull it off in future with UKIP also in the mix, but you need a proper electoral-system failure of a general election first. I know, every FPTP election is an electoral-system failure, but that last one looks fine to most voters.
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
The bet is for it to be introduced BEFORE the election.
So you'd need to
Overcome a Tory majority Overcome the Irish unionists Get the SNP to shoot themselves in the head Get this all rushed through Parliament
All before an election.
I never said before the election. Try to pay attention!
You replied to a post asking what 2% chance leads to a majority Tory government backing PR. That 2% chance referred to PR being introduced before the next GE
RC Labour would do a deal with the LDs, Greens, SDLP before they deal with the SNP and while they may do a deal on more powers they would not on independence
Also Rod you're mistakenly believing that the SNP would want voting reform this Parliament to be part of this extraordinary alliance. They don't. They want independence and have no reason to make this ludicrous alliance work. As we all know know it's in the SNP's interest to have the Tories in power. Why would they kick out their useful London opponents and be seen to be making Westminster work rather than be unworkable? Especially when this means sacrificing half their own seats now.
The SNP would find an excuse to kick this into the long grass.
Nonsense. The SNP will always support voting reform, AMS and abolition of the Lords is a pretty simple movement. Do that and SNP will provide all the support needed. The Lords needs destroyed immediately.
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
While Dave's slim majority provides a temporary illusion of unity on the right, is that really going to last through an EU referendum (with Dave campaigning pro-EU) and into 2020?
The knives really came out for dave over the past year and the right had a taste of what its like to be screwed over by FPTP - the assumption that PR would automatically favour the left has been called into question by a substantial chunk of the governing party.
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
Labour need about 50 seats from the Tories. It';s not like they have another choice. Or the Tories. If 2020 happens (as a UK Election) it's purely a Labour vs Tory fight.
Doh!
50 seats brings them to parity with the Tories.
IN A HUNG PARLIAMENT controlled by the SNP...
See 7/5/15 for how that prospect went down with #JoeVoter
Labour now need 100 gains from the Tories for a majority, else see above...
RC Labour would do a deal with the LDs, Greens, SDLP before they deal with the SNP and while they may do a deal on more powers they would not on independence
There is NO point in any deals without the SNP, it's a numbers game and SDLP + LD + Uncle Tom Cobbly isn't adding through to the 55+ MPs the SNP will provide in 2020 again.
Dair As I also pointed out 18-24 year olds voted no so young voters are not automatically Yes
So of two polls, one said Massive Yes in the 16-25 age group and one said possible No in 18-24, and given all you know about polls and population, what do you think.
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
The bet is for it to be introduced BEFORE the election.
So you'd need to
Overcome a Tory majority Overcome the Irish unionists Get the SNP to shoot themselves in the head Get this all rushed through Parliament
All before an election.
I never said before the election. Try to pay attention!
You replied to a post asking what 2% chance leads to a majority Tory government backing PR. That 2% chance referred to PR being introduced before the next GE
Did I? Mere inconsequential detail in the overall scheme, then...
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
Labour need about 50 seats from the Tories. It';s not like they have another choice. Or the Tories. If 2020 happens (as a UK Election) it's purely a Labour vs Tory fight.
Doh!
50 seats brings them to parity with the Tories.
IN A HUNG PARLIAMENT controlled by the SNP...
See 7/5/15 for how that prospect went down with #JoeVoter
Labour now need 100 gains from the Tories for a majority, else see above...
2020
"Some polls are showing Labour as far as 9% ahead, but considering the MOE, we still cannot be certain that is enough for a majority. The Labour leader has ruled out all deals with the SNP, and has promised to commit hari-kiri on live TV in the event of reneging on her promise..."
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
The bet is for it to be introduced BEFORE the election.
So you'd need to
Overcome a Tory majority Overcome the Irish unionists Get the SNP to shoot themselves in the head Get this all rushed through Parliament
All before an election.
I never said before the election. Try to pay attention!
Yes you did, you pay attention. Re-read the thread. The bet was before the election, then when you said a leftist pact I asked you "Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?" and you said "Higher". Press "Show previous quotes" and see for yourself.
This is a losing bet. There is less than a 2% chance of this getting through Parliament before the next election.
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
The bet is for it to be introduced BEFORE the election.
So you'd need to
Overcome a Tory majority Overcome the Irish unionists Get the SNP to shoot themselves in the head Get this all rushed through Parliament
All before an election.
I never said before the election. Try to pay attention!
Yes you did, you pay attention. Re-read the thread. The bet was before the election, then when you said a leftist pact I asked you "Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?" and you said "Higher". Press "Show previous quotes" and see for yourself.
This is a losing bet. There is less than a 2% chance of this getting through Parliament before the next election.
The pact would be before the election, obviously, dufus...
Also Rod you're mistakenly believing that the SNP would want voting reform this Parliament to be part of this extraordinary alliance. They don't. They want independence and have no reason to make this ludicrous alliance work. As we all know know it's in the SNP's interest to have the Tories in power. Why would they kick out their useful London opponents and be seen to be making Westminster work rather than be unworkable? Especially when this means sacrificing half their own seats now.
The SNP would find an excuse to kick this into the long grass.
Nonsense. The SNP will always support voting reform, AMS and abolition of the Lords is a pretty simple movement. Do that and SNP will provide all the support needed. The Lords needs destroyed immediately.
Don't be naive.
Salmond and Sturgeon are interested in two things: What helps get a second indyref get a Yes vote; and what helps the SNP. Voting reform helps neither. It makes indyref less likely and it removes half the SNP's MPs.
Sure they'll mouth platitudes saying they support it, but actually taking action to eliminate half their MPs is a totally different matter. It is remarkably easy to kick into the long grass any action you're supposed to want but suddenly don't and neither Salmond nor Sturgeon will point a gun at their own temple and press the trigger.
This man is so wasted on the backbenches. While all the lefties are still arguing even today, no Labour definitely didn't borrow too much money...out come all the charts, showing that yes debt did boom during the crash, a lot more that in comparison to Brown racking up of debt in the good times, but Frank is spot on and to the point...
"As Mr Miliband discovered when he appeared in the final party leaders’ TV Election challenge in Leeds, most voters think that the last Labour Government spent too much money.
They gave him a golden opportunity to put his hands up and say sorry.
What did he do? He flunked it. His successor cannot afford to make that mistake. Line one, page one of the next Labour leader’s first speech should be to say loud and clear: we spent too much money and we are sorry.
We borrowed too much money in the boom years."
He then goes on to make many sensible points about a range of policies.
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
The bet is for it to be introduced BEFORE the election.
So you'd need to
Overcome a Tory majority Overcome the Irish unionists Get the SNP to shoot themselves in the head Get this all rushed through Parliament
All before an election.
I never said before the election. Try to pay attention!
Yes you did, you pay attention. Re-read the thread. The bet was before the election, then when you said a leftist pact I asked you "Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?" and you said "Higher". Press "Show previous quotes" and see for yourself.
This is a losing bet. There is less than a 2% chance of this getting through Parliament before the next election.
The pact would be before the election, obviously, dufus...
The pact would have to get it through Parliament and not just be spoken about before the election, obviously, dufus.
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
The bet is for it to be introduced BEFORE the election.
So you'd need to
Overcome a Tory majority Overcome the Irish unionists Get the SNP to shoot themselves in the head Get this all rushed through Parliament
All before an election.
I never said before the election. Try to pay attention!
Yes you did, you pay attention. Re-read the thread. The bet was before the election, then when you said a leftist pact I asked you "Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?" and you said "Higher". Press "Show previous quotes" and see for yourself.
This is a losing bet. There is less than a 2% chance of this getting through Parliament before the next election.
The pact would be before the election, obviously, dufus...
The pact would have to get it through Parliament and not just be spoken about before the election, obviously, dufus.
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
Fat chance. There'd need to be at least eight Tory by-elections lost by the Tories to give all opposition MPs a majority of one. That even assumes the DUP and UUP want PR, which they don't. So there has to be enough votes to bring down a Tory majority government and overcome the Unionists. Also it assumes all of the opposition MPs unite on doing this without a referendum.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
I said a pact at the 2020 election.
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
The bet is for it to be introduced BEFORE the election.
So you'd need to
Overcome a Tory majority Overcome the Irish unionists Get the SNP to shoot themselves in the head Get this all rushed through Parliament
All before an election.
I never said before the election. Try to pay attention!
Yes you did, you pay attention. Re-read the thread. The bet was before the election, then when you said a leftist pact I asked you "Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?" and you said "Higher". Press "Show previous quotes" and see for yourself.
This is a losing bet. There is less than a 2% chance of this getting through Parliament before the next election.
The pact would be before the election, obviously, dufus...
The pact would have to get it through Parliament and not just be spoken about before the election, obviously, dufus.
Dair The Yes result amongst 16-26 year olds was only because of a because of a big Yes lead amongst 16-18 year olds, 18-24 year olds had a small No lead
I just backed PR to be introduced in the UK before the next election @ 50/1
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
What 2% situation leads to a majority Tory government backing PR?
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
A leftist pact, under FPTP, to bring down the Tories in 2020, and immediately introduce PR.
Before the next election? You think that's as high as a 2% chance?
Higher.
While Dave's slim majority provides a temporary illusion of unity on the right, is that really going to last through an EU referendum (with Dave campaigning pro-EU) and into 2020?
The knives really came out for dave over the past year and the right had a taste of what its like to be screwed over by FPTP - the assumption that PR would automatically favour the left has been called into question by a substantial chunk of the governing party.
The big open question for 2015 is what happens to the UKIP score after an EU referendum, assuming it happens. Assuming an "in" vote, are they defeated and fade away, or do they get a boost from all the resentful voters on the losing "out" side who reckon they were robbed by Cameron? And if it's "out", has their reason to exist disappeared, or can they run on Cameron's betrayal in subsequent negotiations?
Lamb is too tied to Clegg, I personally would prefer him to Farron, but from a tactical point of view the LDs have to run as far from Clegg and the Coalition as possible if they are going to regain some of those who voted for them in 2005 and 2010 or even in the eighties and nineties and hence some of their lost seats, Farron is their only choice on that score, night
Comments
Chuka Umunna is exactly the leader Labour do NOT need!! Smarmy, London-elite, metrosexual, Blairite that holds the core Labour support in contempt. David Lammy is a much much better candidate.
Dan Jarvis is my favourite for leader but Lammy is second, if he doesn't run for London Mayor.
I don't catch your drift. Elaborate!
Well it seems to my mind that the SNP did well in Scotland because Sturgeon's leader ratings were very decent, and Tories in England because of Dave's PM ratings/leader ratings.
Or do the Labour leader ratings not actually matter a jot if the next Con leader has decent PM ratings ?
If the Union ends its be an incredible SNP success story. Own it.
The situations aren't remotely the same.
The way to win is to target a majority of people, not a fraction.
As for the best way to cut welfare, it's getting more people working and paying taxes and less on welfare in the first place. The Tories got 2 million more into work last time, do the same again now and the welfare budget will fall.
After a full year of Tory disaster, It will be a Yes vote.
The SNP will harry the Tories with venom and vigour in the Commons. Labour will look like effete bedfellows in comparison.
Some leftists will be begging the SNP to run in England.
Add the Hung Parliament problem I've outlined.
Fade to black... (for Labour)
Not likely, but not 50/1 either.
If anyone wants a bet on it I'll offer £10 at evens that a survey will show at least 55% backing independence by the end of the year.
I am genuinely interested because I hear this but no-one ever mentions any specific things,which leads me to conclude it's just a smokescreen for their dislike or even hatred of Islam.
It's not a 2% chance, it hasn't happened in centuries and while there is a majority Tory government is isn't on the table.
Hypocrites.
http://www.kenanmalik.com/essays/against_mc.html
Well worth reading. Goodnight.
So both major parties could be in favour by then.
(^_-)
Pinkrose Yes Lammy is a great communicator as showed by his mastermind answer than Henry VII succeeded Henry VIII!!
Or not.
Pure demographics.
According to the bible according to Crosby...the data shows it doesn't matter anywhere near as much as the MSM like to bang on about it e.g. Boris vs Red Ken...
What is far more important is that the candidate talking about what the target audience is interested / cares about and is he credible when talking about it and do they have the mood music right. It isn't about a particular background..see Boris doing well with voters who have zero in common with him.
Crosby gives the example of cuts in cost of public transport was the best thing Red Ken came up with and they had to employ the "dead cat strategy" when he did.
I would suggest for instance Miliband banging on and on and on about ZHC's...most of middle England isn't on one, so it is not something that is directly in their sphere of what is super important to them. The people who are concerned most about them are the metro liberals who think it is rather unfair way to treat people, but they aren't going to swing your election for you.
No chance this can all happen. To many variables would all need to happen and each is already unlikely let alone all together.
Having not yet recovered from the Thursday night mauling , I wanted to check out my model against the real votes using UNS separately for England, Wales and Scotland.
These are the figures.
Con 319
Lab 243
SNP 55
LD 10
PC 3
GRN 1
SPK 1
NI 18
Total 650
But those weren't your figures which you seem to have conveniently forgotten or hoped nobody would notice.
As posted by you on 6.5.15
'surbiton said:
FINAL FORECAST
based on the Yougov 10000.
England, Scotland and Wales separately calculated by UNS.
LAB 283
CON 271
SNP 52
LD 17
UKIP 3*
PC 3
GRN 1
RES 1*
SPK 1
NI 18
Total 650
* Only 4 seats were not calculated by UNS. Three have been manually adjusted for UKIP. Clacton, Thanet S from Con and Thurrock from Labour. One for Respect from Labour.
No other statistical adjustments have been done.
and, a very Good Morning to all !
Lab/Grn/LD/SNP/Plaid, etc
Otherwise, for Labour, it's the +100 seats or nothing strategy....
Overwhelming majority of BME voters vote for Labour, who last time i looked were overwhelmingly white and middle class, no?
There is much more inter racial mixing going on than you seem to realise. Mixed race is the fastest growing segment of the population. I myself am a white woman married to an Asian man, so i know from first hand experience ;-)
The team has bought the Marussia facility in Banbury Oxfordshire as its European HQ.
The SNP would find an excuse to kick this into the long grass.
So you'd need to
Overcome a Tory majority
Overcome the Irish unionists
Get the SNP to shoot themselves in the head
Get this all rushed through Parliament
All before an election.
You seem to be presuming a lot about my realisations on the state of racial mixing considering I have not expressed any.
If they make Labour realise they are fecked for as long as they're there, deals will be done, on PR ... on independence...
Labour don't seem to have any other credible options at the moment.
Maybe they could pull it off in future with UKIP also in the mix, but you need a proper electoral-system failure of a general election first. I know, every FPTP election is an electoral-system failure, but that last one looks fine to most voters.
The knives really came out for dave over the past year and the right had a taste of what its like to be screwed over by FPTP - the assumption that PR would automatically favour the left has been called into question by a substantial chunk of the governing party.
50 seats brings them to parity with the Tories.
IN A HUNG PARLIAMENT controlled by the SNP...
See 7/5/15 for how that prospect went down with #JoeVoter
Labour now need 100 gains from the Tories for a majority, else see above...
Look at the BIG PICTURE for Labour.
(^_-)
If there is one thing "Don't knows" do it is cling to nurse...
Mind you I think it'd pass given there if it was held again now. The red pawns have been truly smashed !
"Some polls are showing Labour as far as 9% ahead, but considering the MOE, we still cannot be certain that is enough for a majority. The Labour leader has ruled out all deals with the SNP, and has promised to commit hari-kiri on live TV in the event of reneging on her promise..."
JoeVoter: "Tories, innit...?"
This is a losing bet. There is less than a 2% chance of this getting through Parliament before the next election.
Salmond and Sturgeon are interested in two things: What helps get a second indyref get a Yes vote; and what helps the SNP. Voting reform helps neither. It makes indyref less likely and it removes half the SNP's MPs.
Sure they'll mouth platitudes saying they support it, but actually taking action to eliminate half their MPs is a totally different matter. It is remarkably easy to kick into the long grass any action you're supposed to want but suddenly don't and neither Salmond nor Sturgeon will point a gun at their own temple and press the trigger.
This man is so wasted on the backbenches. While all the lefties are still arguing even today, no Labour definitely didn't borrow too much money...out come all the charts, showing that yes debt did boom during the crash, a lot more that in comparison to Brown racking up of debt in the good times, but Frank is spot on and to the point...
"As Mr Miliband discovered when he appeared in the final party leaders’ TV Election challenge in Leeds, most voters think that the last Labour Government spent too much money.
They gave him a golden opportunity to put his hands up and say sorry.
What did he do? He flunked it. His successor cannot afford to make that mistake. Line one, page one of the next Labour leader’s first speech should be to say loud and clear: we spent too much money and we are sorry.
We borrowed too much money in the boom years."
He then goes on to make many sensible points about a range of policies.
Hello, is there anyone at home?
introduced in the UK before the next election
Introduced doesn't mean a pact for afterwards.
Mature, but not a coffin-dodger (sorry, Ming)
Anyone, other than a graduate from the All-Party School for Apparatchiks...
Oh well, I guess you agree now then that the odds of electoral reform actually getting through Parliament before the next election is less than 50/1?
Afterwards is higher yes, but that's not the bet.