Just because safe Tory shires drag up the overall share doesn't prove your point. In fact it helps mine. You need Labour knocking to get those seats to even the scores they have.
Reporting Scotland just finished their week of live interviews with party leaders. Today was Nicola.
As I stated the other day, the boon of the Second Referendum question continues to work for the SNP.
Of the 10 minute interview, the BBC Scotland's Sally Magnusson spent 7 minutes on the Second Referendum question. The other three minutes on how minority government works and number of seats SNP will win.
For @Patrick, and @Richard_Tyndall, an article I wrote is the cover story on Platt's Energy Economist, so I'm feeling a little smug today. (I just hope I'm right.)
I think there are some fundamental errors in the blog piece. One of which is to equate a rig from a decade ago with a rig today. Even if they are the same basic rigs, the upgrades in technology, safety systems and standards to allow them to operate in far harsher conditions and to meet far stricter environmental restrictions whilst drilling far more complex wells means that there really is no comparison.Many of the rigs now stacked in Invergordon simply couldn't operate at rig rates much below those today even if the work was available for them.
Mike your maths don't make any sense. You cannot extrapolate that knocking up has no effect because marginal seats are on the average. Especially when the average is inflated by super safe Tory seats!
Or alternatively ; party with known libertarian leanings has open mind on how consenting adults manage their relationships. Nothing to see here move along now please. ..
The idea that the Green party is in any way Libertarian is one of the most ludicrous I have ever heard on here.
Kind of depends on whether your definition of libertarian is primarily about economics. Or whether or is about individual liberty regardless of economic status. You could argue that being poor in a rich society restricts your liberty. Therefore policies that redistribute wealth increase the liberty of the poorest in society. ...
Nope. It depends on whether your definition of Libertarian is the correct one or not. A Libertarian position is founded on the basic principle that the state should have as little involvement in the lives of people as possible. Redistribution of wealth, State direction of the economy and just about every single thing the Greens stand for is the exact opposite of Libertarianism.
Or alternatively ; party with known libertarian leanings has open mind on how consenting adults manage their relationships. Nothing to see here move along now please. ..
Libertarian? Really? Judging by their manifesto, they strike me as very bossy, intrusive and Puritanical.
A bizarre mix between Simone de Beauvoir and Mary Whitehouse.
BBC News 6pm: Cameron doesn't think UKIP will have any MPs.
What an ass. Clearly he hasn't been in Clacton of late.
He just gave the lefty BBC with that comment,two hits with one stone.
What the hell is he playing at,it will only make tory/ukip light voters go 'really' we'll show you.
Cameron should be jumping on Ed Miliband's denial the last labour government didn't over spend .
Cameron has no politcal nous whatsoever.He could still have saved his premiership by picking up on Farage's overtures and telling Tories in hopeless Northern Labour seats to think of voting tactically as the quid pro quo for UKIP voters in marginals like Peterborough backing the Tories.Instead, as you say ,he has driven UKIP voters away and gets all he deserves.
Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
Won't change any result in scotland. The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats. If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
A bigger proportion of UK seats though.
Nope the proportion falls by 0.4%.
But the increased registratiton as a result of indyref would more than cover that, would it not?
Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
Won't change any result in scotland. The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats. If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
A bigger proportion of UK seats though.
Nope the proportion falls by 0.4%.
But the increased registratiton as a result of indyref would more than cover that, would it not?
I think there are some fundamental errors in the blog piece. One of which is to equate a rig from a decade ago with a rig today. Even if they are the same basic rigs, the upgrades in technology, safety systems and standards to allow them to operate in far harsher conditions and to meet far stricter environmental restrictions whilst drilling far more complex wells means that there really is no comparison.Many of the rigs now stacked in Invergordon simply couldn't operate at rig rates much below those today even if the work was available for them.
In my younger days, I wrote code for oil rig safety systems - fire and gas sensors, that sort of thing. Have been involved with the development process and watched the rigor and thoroughness of the development process, there is no way you would get me on one of those things. I am surprised that more of them did not go **boom** over the years.
Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
Won't change any result in scotland. The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats. If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
A bigger proportion of UK seats though.
Nope the proportion falls by 0.4%.
But the increased registratiton as a result of indyref would more than cover that, would it not?
For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.
Harry Cole retweeted Jamie Ross@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.
Portillo should go back into proper politics, he's tasted lashings of humble pie and come out the other side a better man.
I love Mikey P.. but he explicitly rules it out here in this interview, which is well worth a listen
I love Mikey P too. Especially when he does programme on Spain which he treats with the love of a son. But he is a better man because he is out of politics.
Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
Won't change any result in scotland. The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats. If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
A bigger proportion of UK seats though.
Nope the proportion falls by 0.4%.
But the increased registratiton as a result of indyref would more than cover that, would it not?
Nope. 16&17 year olds are not counted on GE.
They'll all be 18 by the time the review is done.
So will be current 16&17 year olds in England.
Yes but rather fewer are on the electoral register right now.
For @Patrick, and @Richard_Tyndall, an article I wrote is the cover story on Platt's Energy Economist, so I'm feeling a little smug today. (I just hope I'm right.)
I think there are some fundamental errors in the blog piece. One of which is to equate a rig from a decade ago with a rig today. Even if they are the same basic rigs, the upgrades in technology, safety systems and standards to allow them to operate in far harsher conditions and to meet far stricter environmental restrictions whilst drilling far more complex wells means that there really is no comparison.Many of the rigs now stacked in Invergordon simply couldn't operate at rig rates much below those today even if the work was available for them.
That comparison wasn't invented by me, but by the blog writer!
I actually didn't really cover offshore at all. I'll email you the piece directly.
For @Patrick, and @Richard_Tyndall, an article I wrote is the cover story on Platt's Energy Economist, so I'm feeling a little smug today. (I just hope I'm right.)
I think there are some fundamental errors in the blog piece. One of which is to equate a rig from a decade ago with a rig today. Even if they are the same basic rigs, the upgrades in technology, safety systems and standards to allow them to operate in far harsher conditions and to meet far stricter environmental restrictions whilst drilling far more complex wells means that there really is no comparison.Many of the rigs now stacked in Invergordon simply couldn't operate at rig rates much below those today even if the work was available for them.
That comparison wasn't invented by me, but by the blog writer!
I actually didn't really cover offshore at all. I'll email you the piece directly.
No worries. As I say I only read the blog piece so understand he has probably drawn conclusions not supported by your original piece.
This does feel like a fairly bad day for the Tories. The day the polls did NOT turn. Still a dead heat. Too late for a surge.
I'm not sure why Labourites on here are so chipper, though. The electoral maths guarantees that the ensuing Labour government will be a feeble thing, and forced into a furtive "pact" with the Nats, which cements the Nat vote in place in Scotland (horrible for Labour long term).
This government will last just long enough to infuriate every voter in England. For Labour, this is the worst possible way to win an election.
They can get a few things passed in Gov't like population based constituencies though.... so long as they give Nicola her 20 pennies of silver
Harriet: Plymouth (both of them) Coaker: Gloucester Lammy: Enfield North Owen Smith: Cardiff North and Central with EdM Khan: Finchley Scunthorpe MP: Brigg & Goole Alan Johnson: Bury North Flint: Wirral West Twigg: Wirral South and West Field: Wirral West Wythenshawe & Sale East MP: Ashton Adonis: Reading West Straw: Rossendale for his son Ross Kemp: Enfield North Sefton Central MP: South Ribble
This does feel like a fairly bad day for the Tories. The day the polls did NOT turn. Still a dead heat. Too late for a surge.
I'm not sure why Labourites on here are so chipper, though. The electoral maths guarantees that the ensuing Labour government will be a feeble thing, and forced into a furtive "pact" with the Nats, which cements the Nat vote in place in Scotland (horrible for Labour long term).
This government will last just long enough to infuriate every voter in England. For Labour, this is the worst possible way to win an election.
The Tories will win most votes and most seats though !
Are the Ashcroft constituency polls the same methodology as his national ones? If, hypothetically, he did a poll of every constituency and a national poll at the same time, would you expect (on average) the same results?
This does feel like a fairly bad day for the Tories. The day the polls did NOT turn. Still a dead heat. Too late for a surge.
I'm not sure why Labourites on here are so chipper, though. The electoral maths guarantees that the ensuing Labour government will be a feeble thing, and forced into a furtive "pact" with the Nats, which cements the Nat vote in place in Scotland (horrible for Labour long term).
This government will last just long enough to infuriate every voter in England. For Labour, this is the worst possible way to win an election.
Harriet: Plymouth (both of them) Coaker: Gloucester Lammy: Enfield North Owen Smith: Cardiff North and Central with EdM Khan: Finchley Scunthorpe MP: Brigg & Goole Alan Johnson: Bury North Flint: Wirral West Twigg: Wirral South and West Field: Wirral West Wythenshawe & Sale East MP: Ashton Adonis: Reading West Straw: Rossendale for his son Ross Kemp: Enfield North Sefton Central MP: South Ribble
Good to see the postie out in Bury North (On Labour here) !
Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
Won't change any result in scotland. The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats. If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
A bigger proportion of UK seats though.
Nope the proportion falls by 0.4%.
But the increased registratiton as a result of indyref would more than cover that, would it not?
Nope. 16&17 year olds are not counted on GE.
No, even allowing for that registration has been higher in Scotland as a result of indyref.
I will tell you why. Because it effectively shows that the press can't move polls like they used to or think they can.
In another 5 years the Sun will be struggling to get a million readers. Less than Russel Brand has subscribing to his Youtube feed. The old world is over.
One thing is clear from the marginals polling: Cons could really do without the UKIP menace. Shame Dave spent the past few years dismissing UKIP supporters fruitcakes and loonies.
When so many of them are it's difficult not to. By the way, before you say that's no way to get the kippers back, I don't want them back, I'm more than happy not to be associated with large numbers of them.
How is that majority working out for you? Looks like yet another 5 years where the Tories have not won a general election. Hopefully if they shift even further to the left they will pick up more Guardian reader votes.
I can't make this any easier for you. I would rather not have a Tory majority government if it means bringing in the more barking of kippers, you know the ones who really took offence at Cameron's remarks, because they recognised themselves all too clearly.
That's very much a dog in the manger attitude. It's the left wing mirror of Barry Goldwater telling liberal Republicans that he didn't want their votes.
Mike your maths don't make any sense. You cannot extrapolate that knocking up has no effect because marginal seats are on the average. Especially when the average is inflated by super safe Tory seats!
You would expect Con safe to have high turnout. Lab safe low turnout. So marginals, all else being equal, should have approx. average turnout based on Con / Lab composition.
However then factor in that they are the focus of maximum campaigning - by all parties. That should then push their turnout above average. Yet it doesn't.
Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
Won't change any result in scotland. The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats. If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
A bigger proportion of UK seats though.
Nope the proportion falls by 0.4%.
But the increased registratiton as a result of indyref would more than cover that, would it not?
Nope. 16&17 year olds are not counted on GE.
No, even allowing for that registration has been higher in Scotland as a result of indyref.
Well. Reading some of the comments on here I'd say some Tories have passed through denial and the anger phase is under way.
A surprising number of commentators on the web are already in to the acceptance stage. "Good election to lose really" will be a sentiment much seen in some areas I suspect, and though it will be true that taking on the difficulties ahead may be awful, any of the leaders would take it over being out of power.
This does feel like a fairly bad day for the Tories. The day the polls did NOT turn. Still a dead heat. Too late for a surge.
I'm not sure why Labourites on here are so chipper, though. The electoral maths guarantees that the ensuing Labour government will be a feeble thing, and forced into a furtive "pact" with the Nats, which cements the Nat vote in place in Scotland (horrible for Labour long term).
This government will last just long enough to infuriate every voter in England. For Labour, this is the worst possible way to win an election.
Labour can do a lot of things which are in themselves not that expensive.
Tuition fees cut, Minimum Wage, Child benefit guarantee, 10p rate of income tax paid for by economic growth if it continues around 2.5% pa.
The deficit will not increase.
Mansion Tax: hacked off to a Commission to come back with proposals. Trident: kick it safely into touch. This has form - that is what the Tory-Lib coalition did.
[ Did you watch Portillo last night on Trident ? Brilliant !!! ]
2 years later , arrange an election. If earlier, that is fine too !
This does feel like a fairly bad day for the Tories. The day the polls did NOT turn. Still a dead heat. Too late for a surge.
I'm not sure why Labourites on here are so chipper, though. The electoral maths guarantees that the ensuing Labour government will be a feeble thing, and forced into a furtive "pact" with the Nats, which cements the Nat vote in place in Scotland (horrible for Labour long term).
This government will last just long enough to infuriate every voter in England. For Labour, this is the worst possible way to win an election.
This does feel like a fairly bad day for the Tories. The day the polls did NOT turn. Still a dead heat. Too late for a surge.
I'm not sure why Labourites on here are so chipper, though. The electoral maths guarantees that the ensuing Labour government will be a feeble thing, and forced into a furtive "pact" with the Nats, which cements the Nat vote in place in Scotland (horrible for Labour long term).
This government will last just long enough to infuriate every voter in England. For Labour, this is the worst possible way to win an election.
I am suspicious of these marginal polls, its never been done on this scale before, therefore no lessons can have been learned from previous elections yet we all seem to be hanging our hat on it. Also on this site five years ago everyone was bleating on about " it's different in the marginals" it turned put no to be different. Then it was as I recall the Metths medium english towns blah blah. Turned out to be boll@cks.
This does feel like a fairly bad day for the Tories. The day the polls did NOT turn. Still a dead heat. Too late for a surge.
I'm not sure why Labourites on here are so chipper, though. The electoral maths guarantees that the ensuing Labour government will be a feeble thing, and forced into a furtive "pact" with the Nats, which cements the Nat vote in place in Scotland (horrible for Labour long term).
This government will last just long enough to infuriate every voter in England. For Labour, this is the worst possible way to win an election.
This does feel like a fairly bad day for the Tories. The day the polls did NOT turn. Still a dead heat. Too late for a surge.
I'm not sure why Labourites on here are so chipper, though. The electoral maths guarantees that the ensuing Labour government will be a feeble thing, and forced into a furtive "pact" with the Nats, which cements the Nat vote in place in Scotland (horrible for Labour long term).
This government will last just long enough to infuriate every voter in England. For Labour, this is the worst possible way to win an election.
Completely agree Sean, that's why I'm still holding out hope that Labour let Cameron form a Government, abstain on the Queen's Speech and then let the Tories fight among themselves with Clegg helping them out if his party let him. After all, it's the Tories who keep telling us most seats is the gold standard of electoral legitimacy.
You are right that it is not in Labour's interest to try and lead a desperately weak Government.
Harriet: Plymouth (both of them) Coaker: Gloucester Lammy: Enfield North Owen Smith: Cardiff North and Central with EdM Khan: Finchley Scunthorpe MP: Brigg & Goole Alan Johnson: Bury North Flint: Wirral West Twigg: Wirral South and West Field: Wirral West Wythenshawe & Sale East MP: Ashton Adonis: Reading West Straw: Rossendale for his son Ross Kemp: Enfield North Sefton Central MP: South Ribble
Labour obviously worried Wirral West might be slipping away.
Harriet: Plymouth (both of them) Coaker: Gloucester Lammy: Enfield North Owen Smith: Cardiff North and Central with EdM Khan: Finchley Scunthorpe MP: Brigg & Goole Alan Johnson: Bury North Flint: Wirral West Twigg: Wirral South and West Field: Wirral West Wythenshawe & Sale East MP: Ashton Adonis: Reading West Straw: Rossendale for his son Ross Kemp: Enfield North Sefton Central MP: South Ribble
Good to see the postie out in Bury North (On Labour here) !
Note Adonis in Reading West...
6.3% swing required. It would require the online polls to be correct.
Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
Won't change any result in scotland. The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats. If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
A bigger proportion of UK seats though.
Nope the proportion falls by 0.4%.
But the increased registratiton as a result of indyref would more than cover that, would it not?
Nope. 16&17 year olds are not counted on GE.
No, even allowing for that registration has been higher in Scotland as a result of indyref.
Not enough.
Oh, I had been led to believe otherwise - but in any case I'd like to see the max registration everywhere anyway.
This does feel like a fairly bad day for the Tories. The day the polls did NOT turn. Still a dead heat. Too late for a surge.
I'm not sure why Labourites on here are so chipper, though. The electoral maths guarantees that the ensuing Labour government will be a feeble thing, and forced into a furtive "pact" with the Nats, which cements the Nat vote in place in Scotland (horrible for Labour long term).
This government will last just long enough to infuriate every voter in England. For Labour, this is the worst possible way to win an election.
The Tories will win most votes and most seats though !
Fairly convinced of that one
Lab + LD in England is a key number.
Did Ed not say last night that he would not negotiate any Labour policies with the Nick Clegg so why would the Lib Dems support a Labour minority government?
Every one of those seats was won by under 100 votes. All on a knife-edge. All demanding the maximum possible campaigning attention.
England average - turnout 65.5%
Yes, but isn't it the seats where it was marginal LAST time that you should be looking at? We're all familiar with cases where someone wins by 10 votes and we kick ourselves, but the ground game is strongest where the result is seen to be in the balance.
It's anecdotally undeniable that knocking up gets out some voters who clearly would otherwisde not have bothered - I've had voters sprinting down the road to make it by 10, voters dressing again after answering the door in pyjamas, voters completely shocked to hear it was polling day. How much it adds up to is another matter!
Maybe the lack of Conservative contacts being recorded is partially due to the "I'm your Independent MP who just happens to be in the Conservative party" style of campaigning which has been noticed at this election.
Main election addresses have only started going out today.
Not in my patch - the main Tory one went out weeks ago, as did ours.
Harriet: Plymouth (both of them) Coaker: Gloucester Lammy: Enfield North Owen Smith: Cardiff North and Central with EdM Khan: Finchley Scunthorpe MP: Brigg & Goole Alan Johnson: Bury North Flint: Wirral West Twigg: Wirral South and West Field: Wirral West Wythenshawe & Sale East MP: Ashton Adonis: Reading West Straw: Rossendale for his son Ross Kemp: Enfield North Sefton Central MP: South Ribble
Labour obviously worried Wirral West might be slipping away.
Lord A says LAB still 3% ahead but with the Tories closing in, however the big 2 get almost 90% of the vote with UKIP squeezed to 2010 levels, so there is not much prospect of further Tory improvement there.
This does feel like a fairly bad day for the Tories. The day the polls did NOT turn. Still a dead heat. Too late for a surge.
I'm not sure why Labourites on here are so chipper, though. The electoral maths guarantees that the ensuing Labour government will be a feeble thing, and forced into a furtive "pact" with the Nats, which cements the Nat vote in place in Scotland (horrible for Labour long term).
This government will last just long enough to infuriate every voter in England. For Labour, this is the worst possible way to win an election.
Neither particularly good nor bad. Populus and Survation seem to have reverted to the mean.
Harriet: Plymouth (both of them) Coaker: Gloucester Lammy: Enfield North Owen Smith: Cardiff North and Central with EdM Khan: Finchley Scunthorpe MP: Brigg & Goole Alan Johnson: Bury North Flint: Wirral West Twigg: Wirral South and West Field: Wirral West Wythenshawe & Sale East MP: Ashton Adonis: Reading West Straw: Rossendale for his son Ross Kemp: Enfield North Sefton Central MP: South Ribble
Labour obviously worried Wirral West might be slipping away.
Lord A says LAB still 3% ahead but with the Tories closing in, however the big 2 get almost 90% of the vote with UKIP squeezed to 2010 levels, so there is not much prospect of further Tory improvement there.
It's an incredible two-party battle there. Will probably come down to turnout. If they've heavily canvassed, and have a good groundgame, that'll give Labour an edge.
Well. Reading some of the comments on here I'd say some Tories have passed through denial and the anger phase is under way.
A surprising number of commentators on the web are already in to the acceptance stage. "Good election to lose really" will be a sentiment much seen in some areas I suspect, and though it will be true that taking on the difficulties ahead may be awful, any of the leaders would take it over being out of power.
It's just too late for the Tories.
Oh I don't know. I'm so nostalgic for the fag end of the 92-97 Parliament that I could even be tempted to vote for them myself. Just in the interests of contributing to vote share of course, as my constituency is a foregone conclusion.
Well. Reading some of the comments on here I'd say some Tories have passed through denial and the anger phase is under way.
A surprising number of commentators on the web are already in to the acceptance stage. "Good election to lose really" will be a sentiment much seen in some areas I suspect, and though it will be true that taking on the difficulties ahead may be awful, any of the leaders would take it over being out of power.
Sure, the leaders would take any win, but that's because of personal ambition (and they all know they are, individually, toast if they lose - it's a "career defining" GE, as someone said).
But the medium and long term interest of each party might be wildly divergent from this. And this is one election where that is almost certainly the case, especially for Labour.
Miliband will have to do a deal with the SNP (despite claiming again, tonight, that he will NEVER do a deal). He will claim it isn't a "deal" because blah blah parliamentary procedure blah blah. No one will understand. They will just say his government came in to power on a lie.
Meanwhile Scotland is lost to Labour forever, and the English are angry.
Certainly possible I agree. This and the last election might technically be good ones to lose (Labour have lucked out as they didn't need to cut things, and as a result may have picked up just enough new support to win despite not learning anything about the mistakes they made), and it'll be weirdly fascinating to see what Ed M tries to do to make things work for him and Labour moving forward. If he can pull it off, fair play to him, but it's hard to see at present.
Cameron I do have some personal sympathy for. Regardless of how much he is to blame for failing to secure a majority last time, or not winning against Ed this time, there have been aspects to each (assuming he does fail this time) which are pretty good. Gaining 100 seats, retaining about the same level of vote despite 5 years of cutting, all pretty impressive. But he cannot quite get over the line it seems.
So you're saying that turnout is higher in Sunderland than in Hampstead and Kilburn?
I think there's quite a transient population in Hampstead, so that's a pretty impressive overall turnout.
Btw, I saw my first Conservative poster there today - small, and discreet but very effective - in Squires Mount.
Labour have three in Well Road, all in 'millionaire mansions', and one in Christchurch Hill (council house).
That's all I've seen.
What are your thoughts on overall turnout PtP?
I sold on the spreads initially, but closed out at a small profit. The high registration numbers spooked me.
I sold Scottish turnover on the spreads too, and still have that open. SPIN's original figure was much too high and for various reasons I expect turnover north of the border to be no more than middling to high.
I'm surprised the Bouncing Brown hasn't been unleashed yet. Maybe that's being saved for eve of poll.
Oh, he's been around. Promising thousands of pounds to every foodbank in Scotland within 24hrs of a Labour victory. And so on. That was about 10 days ago. He's been speaking on and off since.
Every one of those seats was won by under 100 votes. All on a knife-edge. All demanding the maximum possible campaigning attention.
England average - turnout 65.5%
Yes, but isn't it the seats where it was marginal LAST time that you should be looking at? We're all familiar with cases where someone wins by 10 votes and we kick ourselves, but the ground game is strongest where the result is seen to be in the balance.
It's anecdotally undeniable that knocking up gets out some voters who clearly would otherwisde not have bothered - I've had voters sprinting down the road to make it by 10, voters dressing again after answering the door in pyjamas, voters completely shocked to hear it was polling day. How much it adds up to is another matter!
Maybe the lack of Conservative contacts being recorded is partially due to the "I'm your Independent MP who just happens to be in the Conservative party" style of campaigning which has been noticed at this election.
Main election addresses have only started going out today.
Not in my patch - the main Tory one went out weeks ago, as did ours.
So you're saying that turnout is higher in Sunderland than in Hampstead and Kilburn?
I think there's quite a transient population in Hampstead, so that's a pretty impressive overall turnout.
Btw, I saw my first Conservative poster there today - small, and discreet but very effective - in Squires Mount.
Labour have three in Well Road, all in 'millionaire mansions', and one in Christchurch Hill (council house).
That's all I've seen.
What are your thoughts on overall turnout PtP?
I sold on the spreads initially, but closed out at a small profit. The high registration numbers spooked me.
I sold Scottish turnover on the spreads too, and still have that open. SPIN's original figure was much too high and for various reasons I expect turnover north of the border to be no more than middling to high.
Weather forecast for next Thursday "High pressure builds to the southeast of the country through Thursday. This brings good spells of sunshine and plenty of dry weather. Some showers for western Scotland and the west of Ireland. Tops near 10 to 16C."
Fine weather - does that benefit Labour or the Tories?
Davidson fought tooth and nail to prevent the Referendum happening, demonized yes voters and said he would work against his constituents interests in the event of a yes vote.
Yes, but isn't it the seats where it was marginal LAST time that you should be looking at? We're all familiar with cases where someone wins by 10 votes and we kick ourselves, but the ground game is strongest where the result is seen to be in the balance.
It should be the seats THOUGHT to be the most marginal.
During the 2010 campaign nobody thought the most marginal seats in 2005 would still be the most marginal seats in 2010.
Obviously there is guesswork involved to some degree but the polls in 2010 were at least broadly accurate so the seats that ended up being most marginal should have had a lot of focus.
Moving forward to 2015, the absolute maximum focus should not be on Hampstead, Hendon, Bolton West - rather it should be on Lab targets (say) 25 to 40 from Con.
Weather forecast for next Thursday "High pressure builds to the southeast of the country through Thursday. This brings good spells of sunshine and plenty of dry weather. Some showers for western Scotland and the west of Ireland. Tops near 10 to 16C."
Fine weather - does that benefit Labour or the Tories?
Tory oldies will turn out in all weathers. The soap dodgers might only bother if it's nice and sunny.
Weather forecast for next Thursday "High pressure builds to the southeast of the country through Thursday. This brings good spells of sunshine and plenty of dry weather. Some showers for western Scotland and the west of Ireland. Tops near 10 to 16C."
Fine weather - does that benefit Labour or the Tories?
Convention would say Lab. In reality, doesn't make a blind bit of difference.
Really don't see anything in today's polls to panic the Tories or cause Labour triumphalism. The Ashcroft marginals are all close enough for the Tories to win and Survation is reverting to type. The phone polls give the Tories a handy lead to take into the last week.
Approaching parity on next PM market. But if you want to back Cameron much better value in individual seats where Conservatives favourite in no more than 280. Could also sell Cons at 290 (IG) and back them in individual seats and lock in small profit.
For @Patrick, and @Richard_Tyndall, an article I wrote is the cover story on Platt's Energy Economist, so I'm feeling a little smug today. (I just hope I'm right.)
I think there are some fundamental errors in the blog piece. One of which is to equate a rig from a decade ago with a rig today. Even if they are the same basic rigs, the upgrades in technology, safety systems and standards to allow them to operate in far harsher conditions and to meet far stricter environmental restrictions whilst drilling far more complex wells means that there really is no comparison.Many of the rigs now stacked in Invergordon simply couldn't operate at rig rates much below those today even if the work was available for them.
RCS1000. A nicely written article. I'm not myself convinced oil price and margins will return any time soon. The US has become the swing producer. Low prices will eventually depress output but as soon as prices return so will the production. There are hundreds of drilled but uncompleted onshore wells in the US awaiting slightly better prices. The cosr of drilling, completing and porducing from shale continues to fall as technology improves. So...I think low prices is the new normal. My employer clearly doesn't and has just offered $70bn for a deal that only really works if prices recover to around $90. Either way it's not going to change soon and the jobs carnage will continue for quite some time. I'd say oil stocks are quite a spoecualtive punt on recovering prices right now. There may be better places for investors to park their dosh.
Really don't see anything in today's polls to panic the Tories or cause Labour triumphalism. The Ashcroft marginals are all close enough for the Tories to win and Survation is reverting to type. The phone polls give the Tories a handy lead to take into the last week.
There's still all to play for.
Pretty much. The Survation "thinking about your own constituency" question has Con 34/Lab 33.
Well there's a headline I didn't ever expect to see. Looks like the SLAB recriminations and blame game have started before we even know the result. I think SLAB are now facing complete extinction as party discipline has clearly broken down.
“After days of weasel words and prevarication David Cameron is still failing to rule out cutting child benefit and tax credits again.
“All he has said again is he won’t abolish child benefit, but he won’t deny he plans to cut it or take it away from millions of families. Everyone knows it’s impossible for the Tories to achieve their £12 billion of cuts to social security without hitting family budgets hard.
Could be a factor next Thursday unless Tories shut it down by coming clean.
“After days of weasel words and prevarication David Cameron is still failing to rule out cutting child benefit and tax credits again.
“All he has said again is he won’t abolish child benefit, but he won’t deny he plans to cut it or take it away from millions of families. Everyone knows it’s impossible for the Tories to achieve their £12 billion of cuts to social security without hitting family budgets hard.
Could be a factor next Thursday unless Tories shut it down by coming clean.
Benefit cuts are generally popular IMO
Cutting other people's benefits is generally popular.
People who like poster spotting but are too lazy just need to go to South Belfast. You just have to look out your window anywhere in the constituency. Its the most packed ive seen it anywhere locally for a very long time.
Jonathan Bell of the DUP in particular appears to have blown several election funds at one go and with good reason.
Lucy Powell: "If the SNP agree with us on certain policies, they can vote for them."
That is NOT a deal. There is no agreed exchange.
The difference between deal and arrangement is semantic at best. Those opposed to the arrangement will call it a deal, those in favour will claim it does not amount that far.
Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
Won't change any result in scotland. The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats. If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
Just catching up on thread (utterly depressing poll for this PB Tory.......:( )
Shouldn't Scotland get MORE seats, because of how many voters are registered. Or is it done on the census data?
If its raining in Scotland then good for Labour. Gotta hope the oldies still vote and no one else does!
So far it seems that the weather for Thursday is being arranged by Labour. Even letting the Tories pile up useless votes in Hampshire and all those other places.
North Cornwall This is another of those seats where the result changes with the question asked. It's going to be interesting to see if one version of the VI question proves to be more accurate than the other in all/most cases.
I drove right across three London constituencies today (ferrying my daughter around playgrounds etc): Holborn, Finchley and Hampstead.
In Holborn and St Pancras (Labour, and an almost certain Labour HOLD), I saw zero placards or posters. Zero. Not one. This apathy could be ascribed to the certain Labour victory, yet as foxinsox pointed out earlier, the Green leader is standing in this, my constituency, so you would surely expect a couple of Green posters or placards. Yet: none.
In Finchley and Golders Green (Tory, and a very possible Labour GAIN) I saw three Labour placards, and one Lib Dem placard - in an hour of driving around. Apparently Labour have thrown resources at this seat. You wouldn't know it.
In Hampstead (Labour by the narrowest of margins, but a very probable Labour HOLD) I saw nothing at all. Zip. Just like Holborn. Again I know Labour are heavy favourites to win this but with just a few hundred votes between the parties, at present, you might expect some evidence of a struggle. Yet not.
I'm not sure what to make of all this. It is quite odd. I'd like to think it shows that Labour have taken too much for granted in London, but I can't remotely prove that. What I can say is that there is, apparently, a serious dearth of enthusiasm for ANY of the parties. And I wonder if this will cause a much lower turnout than we anticipate, in places like London.
Who that favours, I do not know.
Broadly speaking, I think I've seen progressively fewer garden endorsements at each election I can remember. There aren't even the roundabout lamppost sandwich boards round here yet. I just think campaigns take a different form these days.
“After days of weasel words and prevarication David Cameron is still failing to rule out cutting child benefit and tax credits again.
“All he has said again is he won’t abolish child benefit, but he won’t deny he plans to cut it or take it away from millions of families. Everyone knows it’s impossible for the Tories to achieve their £12 billion of cuts to social security without hitting family budgets hard.
Could be a factor next Thursday unless Tories shut it down by coming clean.
Benefit cuts are generally popular IMO
Cutting other people's benefits is generally popular.
Having your own benefits cut is always unpopular.
Only 12m households receive child benefit!! so i will let you decide whether its politically good or bad.
“After days of weasel words and prevarication David Cameron is still failing to rule out cutting child benefit and tax credits again.
“All he has said again is he won’t abolish child benefit, but he won’t deny he plans to cut it or take it away from millions of families. Everyone knows it’s impossible for the Tories to achieve their £12 billion of cuts to social security without hitting family budgets hard.
Could be a factor next Thursday unless Tories shut it down by coming clean.
“After days of weasel words and prevarication David Cameron is still failing to rule out cutting child benefit and tax credits again.
“All he has said again is he won’t abolish child benefit, but he won’t deny he plans to cut it or take it away from millions of families. Everyone knows it’s impossible for the Tories to achieve their £12 billion of cuts to social security without hitting family budgets hard.
Could be a factor next Thursday unless Tories shut it down by coming clean.
Benefit cuts are generally popular IMO
Cutting other people's benefits is generally popular.
Having your own benefits cut is always unpopular.
Only 12m households receive child benefit!! so i will let you decide whether its politically good or bad.
Public 75-18 in favour of restricting claims to a maximum of 3 kids.
As GE2015 in Scotland is looking pretty much all over, time to turn our attention to Holyrood 2016. Hopefully as we get closer somebody will develop a seat calculator by region, best one I've come across is:
Suffice to say based on current polling the 3 "mainstream parties" pain is going to continue as the SNP sweeps across the constituency seats. They will then be caught in a pincer movement for regional seats by the SNP, the Greens and UKIP. Theoretically the Greens could come 3rd, due to the workings of the AMS system designed to keep the SNP out of power.
“After days of weasel words and prevarication David Cameron is still failing to rule out cutting child benefit and tax credits again.
“All he has said again is he won’t abolish child benefit, but he won’t deny he plans to cut it or take it away from millions of families. Everyone knows it’s impossible for the Tories to achieve their £12 billion of cuts to social security without hitting family budgets hard.
Could be a factor next Thursday unless Tories shut it down by coming clean.
I drove right across three London constituencies today (ferrying my daughter around playgrounds etc): Holborn, Finchley and Hampstead.
In Holborn and St Pancras (Labour, and an almost certain Labour HOLD), I saw zero placards or posters. Zero. Not one. This apathy could be ascribed to the certain Labour victory, yet as foxinsox pointed out earlier, the Green leader is standing in this, my constituency, so you would surely expect a couple of Green posters or placards. Yet: none.
In Finchley and Golders Green (Tory, and a very possible Labour GAIN) I saw three Labour placards, and one Lib Dem placard - in an hour of driving around. Apparently Labour have thrown resources at this seat. You wouldn't know it.
In Hampstead (Labour by the narrowest of margins, but a very probable Labour HOLD) I saw nothing at all. Zip. Just like Holborn. Again I know Labour are heavy favourites to win this but with just a few hundred votes between the parties, at present, you might expect some evidence of a struggle. Yet not.
I'm not sure what to make of all this. It is quite odd. I'd like to think it shows that Labour have taken too much for granted in London, but I can't remotely prove that. What I can say is that there is, apparently, a serious dearth of enthusiasm for ANY of the parties. And I wonder if this will cause a much lower turnout than we anticipate, in places like London.
Who that favours, I do not know.
Broadly speaking, I think I've seen progressively fewer garden endorsements at each election I can remember. There aren't even the roundabout lamppost sandwich boards round here yet. I just think campaigns take a different form these days.
Indeed. Arguably people are more private about their politics these days, as they can't assume they're surrounded by friends (let's face it, many people who put up signs do so at least assuming their neighbours are on the same wavelength). Safer to do it anonymously from behind a keyboard these days...
“After days of weasel words and prevarication David Cameron is still failing to rule out cutting child benefit and tax credits again.
“All he has said again is he won’t abolish child benefit, but he won’t deny he plans to cut it or take it away from millions of families. Everyone knows it’s impossible for the Tories to achieve their £12 billion of cuts to social security without hitting family budgets hard.
Could be a factor next Thursday unless Tories shut it down by coming clean.
Benefit cuts are generally popular IMO
If Cameron's not going to cut tax credits or child benefit then why doesn't he legislate to confirm he won't? The reason is, because the Tories will cut tax credits and child benefit...the party of non doms and fox hunters are going to fleece the working poor. FACT
Comments
Corals has laid an awful lot of "Faugheens" in the individual seats market imo.
Just because safe Tory shires drag up the overall share doesn't prove your point. In fact it helps mine. You need Labour knocking to get those seats to even the scores they have.
As I stated the other day, the boon of the Second Referendum question continues to work for the SNP.
Of the 10 minute interview, the BBC Scotland's Sally Magnusson spent 7 minutes on the Second Referendum question. The other three minutes on how minority government works and number of seats SNP will win.
No questions about policy or record.
Farcical.
If campaigning made a difference, they should be much higher than average.
I accept they shouldn't be the very highest - as Con safe seats will have higher turnout due to greater tendency of Con voters to turnout.
But marginals should certainly be significantly higher than average. But they aren't.
I think there are some fundamental errors in the blog piece. One of which is to equate a rig from a decade ago with a rig today. Even if they are the same basic rigs, the upgrades in technology, safety systems and standards to allow them to operate in far harsher conditions and to meet far stricter environmental restrictions whilst drilling far more complex wells means that there really is no comparison.Many of the rigs now stacked in Invergordon simply couldn't operate at rig rates much below those today even if the work was available for them.
I can tell you how much Labour and the Lib Dems did... nada
But then again it has a 16k Tory majority.
The average turnout matters not a jot.
16&17 year olds are not counted on GE.
I actually didn't really cover offshore at all. I'll email you the piece directly.
Balls: Finchley, Hampstead…doing some line dancing https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/857CCA6C031205912692079362048_305b9b1672f.1.5.2925975116983173213.mp4?versionId=mlWPZRhCyp8mjf2kFaWKSFinWt7Kqg3p
Harriet: Plymouth (both of them)
Coaker: Gloucester
Lammy: Enfield North
Owen Smith: Cardiff North and Central with EdM
Khan: Finchley
Scunthorpe MP: Brigg & Goole
Alan Johnson: Bury North
Flint: Wirral West
Twigg: Wirral South and West
Field: Wirral West
Wythenshawe & Sale East MP: Ashton
Adonis: Reading West
Straw: Rossendale for his son
Ross Kemp: Enfield North
Sefton Central MP: South Ribble
Fairly convinced of that one
Lab + LD in England is a key number.
The Tories have made preparations for months now:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/18/tories-contingency-funds-second-poll-general-election
Note Adonis in Reading West...
Btw, I saw my first Conservative poster there today - small, and discreet but very effective - in Squires Mount.
Labour have three in Well Road, all in 'millionaire mansions', and one in Christchurch Hill (council house).
That's all I've seen.
It's just that with all that freedom the membership choose a long list of authoritarian and Statist policies.
I will tell you why. Because it effectively shows that the press can't move polls like they used to or think they can.
In another 5 years the Sun will be struggling to get a million readers. Less than Russel Brand has subscribing to his Youtube feed. The old world is over.
So he didn't get them.
However then factor in that they are the focus of maximum campaigning - by all parties. That should then push their turnout above average. Yet it doesn't.
It's just too late for the Tories.
Tuition fees cut, Minimum Wage, Child benefit guarantee, 10p rate of income tax paid for by
economic growth if it continues around 2.5% pa.
The deficit will not increase.
Mansion Tax: hacked off to a Commission to come back with proposals. Trident: kick it safely into touch. This has form - that is what the Tory-Lib coalition did.
[ Did you watch Portillo last night on Trident ? Brilliant !!! ]
2 years later , arrange an election. If earlier, that is fine too !
A reasonable Prime Minister, shockingly awful politician.
You are right that it is not in Labour's interest to try and lead a desperately weak Government.
It would require the online polls to be correct.
It's anecdotally undeniable that knocking up gets out some voters who clearly would otherwisde not have bothered - I've had voters sprinting down the road to make it by 10, voters dressing again after answering the door in pyjamas, voters completely shocked to hear it was polling day. How much it adds up to is another matter! Not in my patch - the main Tory one went out weeks ago, as did ours. Probably right. But the excited comments on the previous Survation have proved to be premature, don't you think?
The election is pretty much tied, and nothing much is changing. Boring but true. YouGov is right, in fact.
Recount.
Cameron I do have some personal sympathy for. Regardless of how much he is to blame for failing to secure a majority last time, or not winning against Ed this time, there have been aspects to each (assuming he does fail this time) which are pretty good. Gaining 100 seats, retaining about the same level of vote despite 5 years of cutting, all pretty impressive. But he cannot quite get over the line it seems.
I sold Scottish turnover on the spreads too, and still have that open. SPIN's original figure was much too high and for various reasons I expect turnover north of the border to be no more than middling to high.
Fine weather - does that benefit Labour or the Tories?
Oops.
During the 2010 campaign nobody thought the most marginal seats in 2005 would still be the most marginal seats in 2010.
Obviously there is guesswork involved to some degree but the polls in 2010 were at least broadly accurate so the seats that ended up being most marginal should have had a lot of focus.
Moving forward to 2015, the absolute maximum focus should not be on Hampstead, Hendon, Bolton West - rather it should be on Lab targets (say) 25 to 40 from Con.
Labour - very marginally.
There's still all to play for.
Could also sell Cons at 290 (IG) and back them in individual seats and lock in small profit.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD7rud0WoAAwrA8.jpg:large
“All he has said again is he won’t abolish child benefit, but he won’t deny he plans to cut it or take it away from millions of families. Everyone knows it’s impossible for the Tories to achieve their £12 billion of cuts to social security without hitting family budgets hard.
Could be a factor next Thursday unless Tories shut it down by coming clean.
Benefit cuts are generally popular IMO
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=116758783&ex=1&origin=MRL
The blue money keeps on coming.
Having your own benefits cut is always unpopular.
Jonathan Bell of the DUP in particular appears to have blown several election funds at one go and with good reason.
Shouldn't Scotland get MORE seats, because of how many voters are registered. Or is it done on the census data?
This is another of those seats where the result changes with the question asked. It's going to be interesting to see if one version of the VI question proves to be more accurate than the other in all/most cases.
V1: Con 40%, Lab 7%, LD 30%, UKIP 15%, Green 5%
V2: Con 36%, Lab 5%, LD 38%, UKIP 14%, Green 5%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/North-Cornwall-April-2015.HST-Full-tables.pdf
East Staffordshire Council: around 2/3 returned
Dumfries and Galloway Council: 18,000 returned so far
Highlands
CSER - 5,453 (61%); RSL - 5,964 (60.7%) & INBS - 9,604 (59.6%)
And even if you don't get it now. There was probably a time when you did have it.
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood
Suffice to say based on current polling the 3 "mainstream parties" pain is going to continue as the SNP sweeps across the constituency seats. They will then be caught in a pincer movement for regional seats by the SNP, the Greens and UKIP. Theoretically the Greens could come 3rd, due to the workings of the AMS system designed to keep the SNP out of power.
One of us is wrong