I'm disappointed in any scottish tories considering tactical voting lab to help beat the snp. Every seat they hold in scotland makes it that much more difficult to stop red ed getting into number 10. Don't do it.
Just posting my "reference position for polls" from the last thread. These are the average result from each polling company since the dissolution of Parliament (with one exception - for YouGov, it's the average since the methodology change). I noticed that all movement since then, when each company was taken in isolation, is completely compatible with no change during the campaign. If any pollster veers away from their baseline, that would be significant.:
Phone Polls: ICM: Con 36; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 10 Ipsos-MORI: Con 34; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 10 Lord Ashcroft: Con 34; Lab 31; LD 9; UKIP 12 ComRes: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 9; UKIP 11 (Average across phone poll averages: Con 35, Lab 32, LD 9, UKIP 11)
Internet Polls: YouGov: Con 34; Lab 35; LD 8; UKIP 13 Populus: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 9; UKIP 15 Opinium: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 13 Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17 Panelbase: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 17 TNS: Con 33; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 16 (Average across Internet poll averages: Con 33; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 15)
So, Tories edging up in overall polling, but still not making significant gains as a general trend. Labour doing better in the marginal polling than nationwide thanks to continued LD collapse, but not making a clean sweep there either even if some gains will definitely happen. Only 6 days left. The eventual outcome remains fairly clear, but the exact form it takes, and the balance, very much unclear.
Personally I'm now hoping for the top two to remain on the same number of seats by offsetting all their losses with gains elsewhere. After 5 years of arguments and efforts, it would be funny to see things remain exactly as they were in terms of seat numbers between them. Though obviously only one of them would be happy about that.
I will say that I never thought Con would get close to matching their vote share in 2010. If they can manage that it would be quite the achievement. Exceeding it would in many ways remarkable, even if that would not guarantee them a win depending on how Labour manage.
I'm disappointed in any scottish tories considering tactical voting lab to help beat the snp. Every seat they hold in scotland makes it that much more difficult to stop red ed getting into number 10. Don't do it.
I have always had a secret liking for Scottish Tories !
Seriously tempted to follow Ruth and put some monies on the Tories in DCT as well as Berwickshire. Even in this bizarre election the swings in DCT and Berwickshire look very, very high. These were strong no areas.
So, Tories edging up in overall polling, but still not making significant gains as a general trend. Labour doing better in the marginal polling than nationwide thanks to continued LD collapse, but not making a clean sweep there either even if some gains will definitely happen. Only 6 days left. The eventual outcome remains fairly clear, but the exact form it takes, and the balance, very much unclear.
Personally I'm now hoping for the top two to remain on the same number of seats by offsetting all their losses with gains elsewhere. After 5 years of arguments and efforts, it would be funny to see things remain exactly as they were in terms of seat numbers between them. Though obviously only one of them would be happy about that.
I will say that I never thought Con would get close to matching their vote share in 2010. If they can manage that it would be quite the achievement. Exceeding it would in many ways remarkable, even if that would not guarantee them a win depending on how Labour manage.
Seriously tempted to follow Ruth and put some monies on the Tories in DCT as well as Berwickshire. Even in this bizarre election the swings in DCT and Berwickshire look very, very high. These were strong no areas.
Casino Remember Ashcroft had the Tories gaining Roxburgh and Berwickshire to make up for any loss in Dumfrieshire, so they would actually retain their 1 Scottish seat
I suspect DCT effect will hit BRS, no-one expected SNP to be so close so it will attract further support.
However I am on the Cons at 6/4 so, whatever.
I initially thought that but then considered it is the Liberals left to be squeezed in BRS whereas in DCT it is Labour. Labour will naturally coalesce as an anti-Tory vote. Liberals are nowhere near as likely and could easily go the other way.
I would, once again, counsel caution in taking the different swings in the Ashcroft polling too literally. There's likely to be a fair amount of statistical noise in the figures for any given seat, so concluding that (say) Pudsey is a Con Hold but Peterborough is a Lab gain is really not statistically sound. Better to conclude simply that both look too close to call.
Seriously tempted to follow Ruth and put some monies on the Tories in DCT as well as Berwickshire. Even in this bizarre election the swings in DCT and Berwickshire look very, very high. These were strong no areas.
Norwich North unsurprising given by election unwind Peterborough very surprising Croydon ought to be an easy hold, the Tories have Pellings 6.5 to squeeze as well as a lead of 4% from last time Batter sea no swing and Tories up? Questionable North Cornwall, need named polling given the disparity twixt national and constituency figures Wirral West easy peaty Lab gain, NW seat. Only 4% swing though..... Pudsey minimal swing too - has London jumped ship? Looks like ending up about 2.5% swing to Labour to me nationally in E and W giving a Tory election lead of about 4 to 5% and a very messy outcome.
I would, once again, counsel caution in taking the different swings in the Ashcroft polling too literally. There's likely to be a fair amount of statistical noise in the figures for any given seat, so concluding that (say) Pudsey is a Con Hold but Peterborough is a Lab gain is really not statistically sound. Better to conclude simply that both look too close to call.
Battersea, on the other hand...
Thanks for the 5-6 tip ages back, should have got more on though.
By the way, the North Cornwall polling adds to my suspicions about how reliable Ashcroft's Q2 method is. There's STILL a huge disconnect between how people say they generally intend to vote, and how they would vote when "thinking specifically about your constituency". Surely at this stage, with everyone in an election mindset, all those people would be answering Lib Dem for any voting intention question if they were actually going to do it?
By the way, the North Cornwall polling adds to my suspicions about how reliable Ashcroft's Q2 method is. There's STILL a huge disconnect between how people say they generally intend to vote, and how they would vote when "thinking specifically about your constituency". Surely at this stage, with everyone in an election mindset, all those people would be answering Lib Dem for any voting intention question if they were actually going to do it?
By the way, the North Cornwall polling adds to my suspicions about how reliable Ashcroft's Q2 method is. There's STILL a huge disconnect between how people say they generally intend to vote, and how they would vote when "thinking specifically about your constituency". Surely at this stage, with everyone in an election mindset, all those people would be answering Lib Dem for any voting intention question if they were actually going to do it?
Stunned by Peterborough, which I had down as a pretty safe Conservative hold.
Seems to me that UKIP, being squeezed in many places, are staying strong there and may cost the Tories the seat. More UKIP voters rule out Cons than any other of the English seats polled today. If the squeeze doesn't happen, an unlikely Labour gain.
Also think Tories will take North Cornwall (sadly). 51% of UKIP voters there ready to consider Tories, and the SW Tories seem to be (with some limited evidence) very optimistic.
Seriously tempted to follow Ruth and put some monies on the Tories in DCT as well as Berwickshire. Even in this bizarre election the swings in DCT and Berwickshire look very, very high. These were strong no areas.
But who knows? It is a tidal wave.
The first poll in DCT put SNP=Yes vote with a sizeable Other (mostly I imagine Green votes)
What this meant was that SNP-Con was tied, that pulled in a lot of the Other vote and squeezed the LAbour anti-Tory vote. I am pretty confident that Mundell is gone.
BRS is wide open and along with D&G two of the most interesting seats this election, quite possibly 1st to 3rd covered by less than a thousand votes.
Seriously tempted to follow Ruth and put some monies on the Tories in DCT as well as Berwickshire. Even in this bizarre election the swings in DCT and Berwickshire look very, very high. These were strong no areas.
But who knows? It is a tidal wave.
BRS a far better shot than DCT imo.
But ZERO SCON looks very likely.
I think the Borders may well all be going SNP.
I will certainly be tempering my pro-Tory postion in the Borders this evening.
Norwich North unsurprising given by election unwind Peterborough very surprising Croydon ought to be an easy hold, the Tories have Pellings 6.5 to squeeze as well as a lead of 4% from last time Batter sea no swing and Tories up? Questionable North Cornwall, need named polling given the disparity twixt national and constituency figures Wirral West easy peaty Lab gain, NW seat. Only 4% swing though..... Pudsey minimal swing too - has London jumped ship? Looks like ending up about 2.5% swing to Labour to me nationally in E and W giving a Tory election lead of about 4 to 5% and a very messy outcome.
Battersea is Tory hold in my book. Some libs are going red but not enough. Blue vote def holding up. Lab are throwing everything at it and that is panicking Blues but it should be fine.
@NCPoliticsUK: Of the four CON-held seats that #Ashcroft had polled previously (in Feb/March), the CON-LAB swing is down from 4.4% to 3.1% #GE2015
@pppolitics: Latest batch of marginal polls from @LordAshcroft seem to show things picking up for the Conservatives overall. Cameron now 11/10 to be PM
Pulpstar Tissue No Dair is right, Berwickshire will be a Tory gain as the last Ashcroft poll said, 3rd place Liberals are more likely to vote tactically for the Tories v SNP there, 3rd place Labour more likely to vote tactically for SNP v Tories in Dumfriesshire. Tory John Lamont is already the MSP for the Berwickshire constituency, winning the seat even in the SNP landslide of 2011
Either the betting markets are being driven by people who have carefully analysed that momentum is all and everything or it is awash with Con mug punters.
roadto326 @roadto326 31m31 minutes ago Avg Con to Lab swing in Ashcroft Con/Lab marginals is 3.3% 6 retweets 2 favorites Reply Retweet6 Favorite2 More Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 31m31 minutes ago @roadto326 And that's with a week still to go... 0 retweets 0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More roadto326 @roadto326 28m28 minutes ago @DPJHodges needs to be a Lab to Con swing for your prediction though Dan 0 retweets 0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 27m27 minutes ago @roadto326 For a majority... 0 retweets 0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More roadto326 @roadto326 23m23 minutes ago @DPJHodges wasn't that your prediction?
For those here at PB.com who looked at my LinkedIn account recently, it has been inactive for years (as you may have noticed) so I have taken this opportunity to close it. I joined it years ago when it was a business networking site rather than a recruitment jamboree and CV exchange.
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Labour ahead in Peterborough but behind in top London targets?! Bizarre.
Peterborough may be a rare example of a reverse incumbency bonus.
That's no way to talk about a pb alumnus.
Lol!
Can you imagine what I might have said if he wasn't?!
[Our newer readers may wish to know that Stewart Jackson was once a regular poster here, though I think it fair to say he was never in danger of winning the Poster of the Year contest.]
Pulpstar Tissue No Dair is right, Berwickshire will be a Tory gain as the last Ashcroft poll said, 3rd place Liberals are more likely to vote tactically for the Tories v SNP there, 3rd place Labour more likely to vote tactically for SNP v Tories in Dumfriesshire. Tory John Lamont is already the MSP for the Berwickshire constituency, winning the seat even in the SNP landslide of 2011
But the Liberals aren't "in 3rd place" as far as most normal people are concerned - they're the incumbents. Red Libs ---> SNP and it all looks far too close to call.
trublue Rubbish, every SNP MP will vote down a Cameron government and Murphy is a staunch unionist. I would agree that Tory tactical voting will be even more likely next year when the contest is Labour v SNP for power at Holyrood and stopping an SNP majority, than Tory v Labour at Westminster as next week
Pulpstar Tissue No Dair is right, Berwickshire will be a Tory gain as the last Ashcroft poll said, 3rd place Liberals are more likely to vote tactically for the Tories v SNP there, 3rd place Labour more likely to vote tactically for SNP v Tories in Dumfriesshire. Tory John Lamont is already the MSP for the Berwickshire constituency, winning the seat even in the SNP landslide of 2011
I'm not saying BRS will be Tory, I'm saying it's not as clear cut as DCT.
Going by DCT, the early Liberal breaks went to the SNP in larger numbers than any other party when their vote dissolves. This can just as easily be read that the Liberals in BRS will break SNP as a "keep out the Tory" vote. Which gives the SNP a solid gain.
Stunned by Peterborough, which I had down as a pretty safe Conservative hold.
Seems to me that UKIP, being squeezed in many places, are staying strong there and may cost the Tories the seat. More UKIP voters rule out Cons than any other of the English seats polled today. If the squeeze doesn't happen, an unlikely Labour gain.
Also think Tories will take North Cornwall (sadly). 51% of UKIP voters there ready to consider Tories, and the SW Tories seem to be (with some limited evidence) very optimistic.
Why should the Conservatives take North Cornwall ? 2009 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 10 seats Con 8 seats Ind 3 seata 2013 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 15 seats Con 2 seats Ind 4 seats Since then LDs have gained 1 seat from Ind in a by election .
I would, once again, counsel caution in taking the different swings in the Ashcroft polling too literally. There's likely to be a fair amount of statistical noise in the figures for any given seat, so concluding that (say) Pudsey is a Con Hold but Peterborough is a Lab gain is really not statistically sound. Better to conclude simply that both look too close to call.
Battersea, on the other hand...
Completely agree. I've got my own model using the Ashcroft polls (I adjust older ones by using the average swing since they were taken. Flawed, but it's the best we've got). Any that are less than +/-5 I put down as 50:50. Any between 5-9 are 75:25 in favour of the leader. Any that are 10+ I assign to the leader.
It's crude, but I think any more precision would be artificial.
By the way, the North Cornwall polling adds to my suspicions about how reliable Ashcroft's Q2 method is. There's STILL a huge disconnect between how people say they generally intend to vote, and how they would vote when "thinking specifically about your constituency". Surely at this stage, with everyone in an election mindset, all those people would be answering Lib Dem for any voting intention question if they were actually going to do it?
That has been the suspicion of every partisan Labour, Conservative, SNP and UKIP voter on this site!
To test this, I thought I'd run through other marginal polls from Ashcroft, particularly those in areas where the LibDems have meaningful local presence. If the LibDems jump between Q1 and Q2 in those seats, then the answer to Q2 is clearly suspect. If they do not, it suggests that people are prompted to think about their local constituency. (If people are being prompted to change their mind, then the effect would be evident everywhere, and not just in LibDem seats.)
It turns out that in seats without LibDem MPs the average jump between questions 1 and 2 is 0.3%. And in many seats - such as Battersea, Croydon Central and Stourbridge - the LibDems actually go backwards between Q1 and Q2.
For this reason, I think we have to accept that the difference between Q1 and Q2 is not picking up some kind of "council" election effect, as posited by PaulMidBeds, for example.
This does not make it accurate, of course. But I suspect punters ignore it at their peril.
Either the betting markets are being driven by people who have carefully analysed that momentum is all and everything or it is awash with Con mug punters.
It's mug punters
There are PLENTY of cracking Tory bets out there still.
TP Liberals in the Scottish Borders are certainly not red liberals, but basically one nation Tories, who are highly educated and loathe the SNP. The Tories already hold the seat in the Scottish Parliament and they can read the polls, they will back Lamont
as Lord Ashcroft likes reminding us these polls are snapshots and not predictions
That's a copout from the good lord. He knows and everyone knows people use polls are predictors, and they can even help drive events in some instances. Snapshot may be technically correct, but trivializes the impact.
Personally I think Lab 40-50 gains of Con sounds about right. Add in another 10 of the Libs and we could be looking at squeaking a majority ..... if it wasn't for the bloody SNP.
Key hope: If there is a swing happening for Jim its happening for other Labour MPs. Holding on to 15 as opposed to 0 could be pretty handy!
By the way, the North Cornwall polling adds to my suspicions about how reliable Ashcroft's Q2 method is. There's STILL a huge disconnect between how people say they generally intend to vote, and how they would vote when "thinking specifically about your constituency". Surely at this stage, with everyone in an election mindset, all those people would be answering Lib Dem for any voting intention question if they were actually going to do it?
I was about to make the same point.
Thought experiment: if you were shown the Ashcroft Q1 and Q2 and told they were from polling in an unspecified country, not the UK, and you were asked to reconstruct the electoral system in that country based on the premise that Q1 and Q2 were sensible questions to ask, would your answer remotely resemble the UK system? I think people who answer Q2 differently from Q1 do so because they do not understand it.
Stunned by Peterborough, which I had down as a pretty safe Conservative hold.
Seems to me that UKIP, being squeezed in many places, are staying strong there and may cost the Tories the seat. More UKIP voters rule out Cons than any other of the English seats polled today. If the squeeze doesn't happen, an unlikely Labour gain.
Also think Tories will take North Cornwall (sadly). 51% of UKIP voters there ready to consider Tories, and the SW Tories seem to be (with some limited evidence) very optimistic.
Why should the Conservatives take North Cornwall ? 2009 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 10 seats Con 8 seats Ind 3 seata 2013 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 15 seats Con 2 seats Ind 4 seats Since then LDs have gained 1 seat from Ind in a by election .
Because you won it by 6.4% when you were polling 23% and now you're polling 9%? It's impressive that it's close, I'll give you that.
Pulpstar Tissue No Dair is right, Berwickshire will be a Tory gain as the last Ashcroft poll said, 3rd place Liberals are more likely to vote tactically for the Tories v SNP there, 3rd place Labour more likely to vote tactically for SNP v Tories in Dumfriesshire. Tory John Lamont is already the MSP for the Berwickshire constituency, winning the seat even in the SNP landslide of 2011
It's hard to compare 2007 to 2011 due to boundary changes but although Con won in 2011 the LD lost 16.5 percentage points of their vote, 2 points went to LAbour, 6 points went to Con and 9 points went to the SNP. According to the Ashcroft poll the massive slew of Lib Dems who have abandoned the party have gone to the SNP.
Pulpstar Tissue No Dair is right, Berwickshire will be a Tory gain as the last Ashcroft poll said, 3rd place Liberals are more likely to vote tactically for the Tories v SNP there, 3rd place Labour more likely to vote tactically for SNP v Tories in Dumfriesshire. Tory John Lamont is already the MSP for the Berwickshire constituency, winning the seat even in the SNP landslide of 2011
What a load of drivel . The LDems are in 1st place not 3rd that is why they are defending the seat . No more than a handful of local voters will be even aware of Lord Ashcroft and his poll but are aware that Michael Moore is the MP .
Personally I think Lab 40-50 gains of Con sounds about right. Add in another 10 of the Libs and we could be looking at squeaking a majority ..... if it wasn't for the bloody SNP.
Key hope: If there is a swing happening for Jim its happening for other Labour MPs. Holding on to 15 as opposed to 0 could be pretty handy!
Most of the other Labour MPs don't have a handy 25% Tory vote to squeeze!
Stunned by Peterborough, which I had down as a pretty safe Conservative hold.
Seems to me that UKIP, being squeezed in many places, are staying strong there and may cost the Tories the seat. More UKIP voters rule out Cons than any other of the English seats polled today. If the squeeze doesn't happen, an unlikely Labour gain.
Also think Tories will take North Cornwall (sadly). 51% of UKIP voters there ready to consider Tories, and the SW Tories seem to be (with some limited evidence) very optimistic.
Why should the Conservatives take North Cornwall ? 2009 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 10 seats Con 8 seats Ind 3 seata 2013 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 15 seats Con 2 seats Ind 4 seats Since then LDs have gained 1 seat from Ind in a by election .
Not disputing it is close (maybe you are!) and sincerely hope you are correct. But the Ashcroft poll is fairly clear that remaining UKIP voters are still willing to consider the Tories and are there to be squeezed. I'm not predicting anything there with certainty, will be mightily close I suspect.
Wasn't there genera SW polling last week that was pro-blue as well?
From here in Norwich, my view is that Chloe will hold on without a recount. You'd hardly know there was an election in Norwich N.
By contrast Norwich South is awash with posters and Greens think they can win. Initially I expected a comfortable Labour win by 5k but this is now looking much closer.
I would, once again, counsel caution in taking the different swings in the Ashcroft polling too literally. There's likely to be a fair amount of statistical noise in the figures for any given seat, so concluding that (say) Pudsey is a Con Hold but Peterborough is a Lab gain is really not statistically sound. Better to conclude simply that both look too close to call.
Battersea, on the other hand...
Completely agree. I've got my own model using the Ashcroft polls (I adjust older ones by using the average swing since they were taken. Flawed, but it's the best we've got). Any that are less than +/-5 I put down as 50:50. Any between 5-9 are 75:25 in favour of the leader. Any that are 10+ I assign to the leader.
It's crude, but I think any more precision would be artificial.
Just posting my "reference position for polls" from the last thread. These are the average result from each polling company since the dissolution of Parliament (with one exception - for YouGov, it's the average since the methodology change). I noticed that all movement since then, when each company was taken in isolation, is completely compatible with no change during the campaign. If any pollster veers away from their baseline, that would be significant.:
Phone Polls: ICM: Con 36; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 10 Ipsos-MORI: Con 34; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 10 Lord Ashcroft: Con 34; Lab 31; LD 9; UKIP 12 ComRes: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 9; UKIP 11 (Average across phone poll averages: Con 35, Lab 32, LD 9, UKIP 11)
Internet Polls: YouGov: Con 34; Lab 35; LD 8; UKIP 13 Populus: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 9; UKIP 15 Opinium: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 13 Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17 Panelbase: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 17 TNS: Con 33; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 16 (Average across Internet poll averages: Con 33; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 15)
Interestingly, this is a trend we've seen across Europe.
In France, the internet pollsters were more generous towards the FN. In Finland, towards The Finns. In Spain, towards Podemos. In the Netherlands, towards the PVV.
Looking through the results in each of these countries, we saw that insurgent (or anti-establishment, take your pick) came in at the top of the phone poll range, and at the bottom of the internet one. This would suggest UKIP 11-13% in the UK, which happens to be my prediction too.
Stunned by Peterborough, which I had down as a pretty safe Conservative hold.
Seems to me that UKIP, being squeezed in many places, are staying strong there and may cost the Tories the seat. More UKIP voters rule out Cons than any other of the English seats polled today. If the squeeze doesn't happen, an unlikely Labour gain.
Also think Tories will take North Cornwall (sadly). 51% of UKIP voters there ready to consider Tories, and the SW Tories seem to be (with some limited evidence) very optimistic.
Why should the Conservatives take North Cornwall ? 2009 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 10 seats Con 8 seats Ind 3 seata 2013 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 15 seats Con 2 seats Ind 4 seats Since then LDs have gained 1 seat from Ind in a by election .
Because you won it by 6.4% when you were polling 23% and now you're polling 9%? It's impressive that it's close, I'll give you that.
We won it by 6.4% when the Conservatives held 8 of the UA divisions to LD 10 . The Conservatives are so locally unpopular that they now only hold 2 .
Pulpstar Tissue No Dair is right, Berwickshire will be a Tory gain as the last Ashcroft poll said, 3rd place Liberals are more likely to vote tactically for the Tories v SNP there, 3rd place Labour more likely to vote tactically for SNP v Tories in Dumfriesshire. Tory John Lamont is already the MSP for the Berwickshire constituency, winning the seat even in the SNP landslide of 2011
What a load of drivel . The LDems are in 1st place not 3rd that is why they are defending the seat . No more than a handful of local voters will be even aware of Lord Ashcroft and his poll but are aware that Michael Moore is the MP .
Normally I'd think that would be more significant, but these are strange times. Even the blind, deaf and dumb cannot have missed the general perceptions of how the LDs will do north of the border. Indeed, the failure to break above 10% nationally has really hurt them I think as in areas where with a little national recovery people might be inclined to vote LD, they might think it futile, even when coming from first place. No guarantee of that, you could be proven right, but I don't think it can be entirely dismissed.
TP Liberals in the Scottish Borders are certainly not red liberals, but basically one nation Tories, who are highly educated and loathe the SNP. The Tories already hold the seat in the Scottish Parliament and they can read the polls, they will back Lamont
Look at the Ashcroft polling for DCT. Where do you think all those Liberal voters went?
It doesn't matter the party. Every single non-Tory option in Scotland is made up of "party supporters" and "anti-Tories". The Anti-Tories exist in the Borders and they're the ones switching to the SNP in DCT. Now the Liberals appear to be third in BRS there is a significant chance of the SNP squeezing them more than the Tories do.
By no means is it guaranteed, we can't establish the exact share of "genuine Liberals" and "anti-Tories". But it is up in the air. Putting money on the Tories in BRS is a far longer shot than the odds being offered.
Comments
CCHQ wishes they could clone me.
I spotted and got on Pudsey when it was 9-4 anyway.
In other words 'we dont know'......
Question is, does this mean 50 Labour gains from the Tories ?
Phone Polls:
ICM: Con 36; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 10
Ipsos-MORI: Con 34; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 10
Lord Ashcroft: Con 34; Lab 31; LD 9; UKIP 12
ComRes: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 9; UKIP 11
(Average across phone poll averages:
Con 35, Lab 32, LD 9, UKIP 11)
Internet Polls:
YouGov: Con 34; Lab 35; LD 8; UKIP 13
Populus: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 9; UKIP 15
Opinium: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 13
Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17
Panelbase: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 17
TNS: Con 33; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 16
(Average across Internet poll averages:
Con 33; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 15)
Personally I'm now hoping for the top two to remain on the same number of seats by offsetting all their losses with gains elsewhere. After 5 years of arguments and efforts, it would be funny to see things remain exactly as they were in terms of seat numbers between them. Though obviously only one of them would be happy about that.
I will say that I never thought Con would get close to matching their vote share in 2010. If they can manage that it would be quite the achievement. Exceeding it would in many ways remarkable, even if that would not guarantee them a win depending on how Labour manage.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/32543893
But who knows? It is a tidal wave.
*fieldwork end-dates 1st April to 30th April
But ZERO SCON looks very likely.
Battersea, on the other hand...
Peterborough very surprising
Croydon ought to be an easy hold, the Tories have Pellings 6.5 to squeeze as well as a lead of 4% from last time
Batter sea no swing and Tories up? Questionable
North Cornwall, need named polling given the disparity twixt national and constituency figures
Wirral West easy peaty Lab gain, NW seat. Only 4% swing though.....
Pudsey minimal swing too - has London jumped ship?
Looks like ending up about 2.5% swing to Labour to me nationally in E and W giving a Tory election lead of about 4 to 5% and a very messy outcome.
Tulip Siddiq must be bricking it in H&K....
Seems to me that UKIP, being squeezed in many places, are staying strong there and may cost the Tories the seat. More UKIP voters rule out Cons than any other of the English seats polled today. If the squeeze doesn't happen, an unlikely Labour gain.
Also think Tories will take North Cornwall (sadly). 51% of UKIP voters there ready to consider Tories, and the SW Tories seem to be (with some limited evidence) very optimistic.
What this meant was that SNP-Con was tied, that pulled in a lot of the Other vote and squeezed the LAbour anti-Tory vote. I am pretty confident that Mundell is gone.
BRS is wide open and along with D&G two of the most interesting seats this election, quite possibly 1st to 3rd covered by less than a thousand votes.
I think either Reading could be a big surprise !
@pppolitics: Latest batch of marginal polls from @LordAshcroft seem to show things picking up for the Conservatives overall. Cameron now 11/10 to be PM
Avg Con to Lab swing in Ashcroft Con/Lab marginals is 3.3%
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Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 31m31 minutes ago
@roadto326 And that's with a week still to go...
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roadto326 @roadto326 28m28 minutes ago
@DPJHodges needs to be a Lab to Con swing for your prediction though Dan
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Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 27m27 minutes ago
@roadto326 For a majority...
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roadto326 @roadto326 23m23 minutes ago
@DPJHodges wasn't that your prediction?
No reply in last 23mins
Just my small contribution to removing clutter from the net.
Can you imagine what I might have said if he wasn't?!
[Our newer readers may wish to know that Stewart Jackson was once a regular poster here, though I think it fair to say he was never in danger of winning the Poster of the Year contest.]
I don't think you know what that word means.
So near but so far. But it's all over - Labour largest party comfortably and Ed PM.
Going by DCT, the early Liberal breaks went to the SNP in larger numbers than any other party when their vote dissolves. This can just as easily be read that the Liberals in BRS will break SNP as a "keep out the Tory" vote. Which gives the SNP a solid gain.
2009 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 10 seats Con 8 seats Ind 3 seata
2013 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 15 seats Con 2 seats Ind 4 seats
Since then LDs have gained 1 seat from Ind in a by election .
Not long to wait to find out how things will play out.
I've got my own model using the Ashcroft polls (I adjust older ones by using the average swing since they were taken. Flawed, but it's the best we've got). Any that are less than +/-5 I put down as 50:50. Any between 5-9 are 75:25 in favour of the leader. Any that are 10+ I assign to the leader.
It's crude, but I think any more precision would be artificial.
Even Ashcroft polls have an MoE. I expect him to hold.
To test this, I thought I'd run through other marginal polls from Ashcroft, particularly those in areas where the LibDems have meaningful local presence. If the LibDems jump between Q1 and Q2 in those seats, then the answer to Q2 is clearly suspect. If they do not, it suggests that people are prompted to think about their local constituency. (If people are being prompted to change their mind, then the effect would be evident everywhere, and not just in LibDem seats.)
It turns out that in seats without LibDem MPs the average jump between questions 1 and 2 is 0.3%. And in many seats - such as Battersea, Croydon Central and Stourbridge - the LibDems actually go backwards between Q1 and Q2.
For this reason, I think we have to accept that the difference between Q1 and Q2 is not picking up some kind of "council" election effect, as posited by PaulMidBeds, for example.
This does not make it accurate, of course. But I suspect punters ignore it at their peril.
There are PLENTY of cracking Tory bets out there still.
Key hope: If there is a swing happening for Jim its happening for other Labour MPs. Holding on to 15 as opposed to 0 could be pretty handy!
So it looks like LD defectors favour the SNP.
There are some politicians I would vote for whatever their Party, and others I would not vote for under any circumstances.
Guess where Stewart Jackson falls?
Not disputing it is close (maybe you are!) and sincerely hope you are correct. But the Ashcroft poll is fairly clear that remaining UKIP voters are still willing to consider the Tories and are there to be squeezed. I'm not predicting anything there with certainty, will be mightily close I suspect.
Wasn't there genera SW polling last week that was pro-blue as well?
By contrast Norwich South is awash with posters and Greens think they can win. Initially I expected a comfortable Labour win by 5k but this is now looking much closer.
In France, the internet pollsters were more generous towards the FN.
In Finland, towards The Finns.
In Spain, towards Podemos.
In the Netherlands, towards the PVV.
Looking through the results in each of these countries, we saw that insurgent (or anti-establishment, take your pick) came in at the top of the phone poll range, and at the bottom of the internet one. This would suggest UKIP 11-13% in the UK, which happens to be my prediction too.
Stay out is my best advice.
It doesn't matter the party. Every single non-Tory option in Scotland is made up of "party supporters" and "anti-Tories". The Anti-Tories exist in the Borders and they're the ones switching to the SNP in DCT. Now the Liberals appear to be third in BRS there is a significant chance of the SNP squeezing them more than the Tories do.
By no means is it guaranteed, we can't establish the exact share of "genuine Liberals" and "anti-Tories". But it is up in the air. Putting money on the Tories in BRS is a far longer shot than the odds being offered.