I'd agree with your analysis, interestingly the Q2 answer was 41% SNP and 35% SLAB, as Lord A has reported a 3% difference, I guess this must be due to a 3% spiral of silence adjustment. These adjustments need more transparency in my opinion.
Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.
Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.
No excuses.
Agreed. Reinforces the red belief their boots on the ground might swing it for them at the very least.
@JBeattieMirror: @DailyMirror@Survation poll Lab 34% (+5 on last week), Cons 33% (NC), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dems 9% (-1), SNP 4% (NC) Greens 3% (-1) #GE2015
The numbers that Survation has been wiggling around throughout the campaign are: Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17
Still looks like no change to anything other than statistical noise around the mean.
Are you calling it for Ed ?!
#boom
The Tories are between 1% and 3% ahead. I don't know which and I don't know what it'll be on the day.
I'm pretty confident now that the Tories will get at least 280 seats. But that's not good enough. They need 295.
My calculation based on the constituency polls now say Tories 275 thanks to London. The swing in E&W is now mostly regionally uniform at 3-3.5% to LAB in Tory seats, which is not much different than what phone polls say.
Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.
Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.
No excuses.
really ?
all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.
Harry Cole retweeted Jamie Ross@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.
An odd chap is Eric Joyce – Whatever the personal circumstances surrounding his life, some time ago he appears to have set a course hell bent on destroying both his Military and political career.
Miliband's denial last night that Labour overspent 1997-2010 should be all over the news like Brown's "bigoted woman". Unfortunately for the Tories, it has gained zero traction in the media beyond the usual crew like the Telegraph.
The BBC did run it reasonably prominently on the 10 o'clock news. Nick Robinson also got pretty close to saying that Ed had had a shocker too. I agree though it hasn't got the attention it deserves - on that Ed should be confined to a psychiatric home rather than made PM.
Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.
No excuses.
Agreed. Reinforces the red belief their boots on the ground might swing it for them at the very least.
What has Shapps been doing?
The ground campaign wasn't great last time either, was it? Their computer system was a shambles. They've had 5 years to make amends.
In Baltimore, arrest warrants have been issued for 6 police officers involved in the Freddie Gray arrest, one for second degree murder, and Gray's death has been ruled a homicide.
Good.
Second degree murder feels a little harsh - do you guys still have negligent homicide, which would feel more appropriate here.
But it's important that something is done. There's something utterly wrong in the US policing system. I don't think it's "racism" per se, but there's a willingness to think the worst of citizens, and a willingness to use excessive force that is deeply worrying.
Some more details, interesting that up to now the races of the cops involved have not been released
Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.
No excuses.
really ?
all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.
No excuses.
really ?
all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.
No excuses.
really ?
all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
not everyone is as grumpy as you
I'm a ray of concentrated sunshine compared to the average ulsterman
Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.
No excuses.
Agreed. Reinforces the red belief their boots on the ground might swing it for them at the very least.
What has Shapps been doing?
The ground campaign wasn't great last time either, was it? Their computer system was a shambles. They've had 5 years to make amends.
Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.
No excuses.
Agreed. Reinforces the red belief their boots on the ground might swing it for them at the very least.
What has Shapps been doing?
The ground campaign wasn't great last time either, was it? Their computer system was a shambles. They've had 5 years to make amends.
One thing is clear from the marginals polling: Cons could really do without the UKIP menace. Shame Dave spent the past few years dismissing UKIP supporters fruitcakes and loonies.
When so many of them are it's difficult not to. By the way, before you say that's no way to get the kippers back, I don't want them back, I'm more than happy not to be associated with large numbers of them.
How is that majority working out for you? Looks like yet another 5 years where the Tories have not won a general election. Hopefully if they shift even further to the left they will pick up more Guardian reader votes.
Labour ahead in Peterborough but behind in top London targets?! Bizarre.
Peterborough may be a rare example of a reverse incumbency bonus.
He's not exactly my cup of tea, Peter, but I struggle to see how the Tories will do worse in Peterborough than 2005, 2001 and even 1997.
Even Ashcroft polls have an MoE. I expect him to hold.
Probably, regrettably.....
There are some politicians I would vote for whatever their Party, and others I would not vote for under any circumstances.
Guess where Stewart Jackson falls?
As a Conservative supporter, I was deeply embarrassed by his posts on here when he was a regular.
The contrast between him and Nick Palmer couldn't have been stronger, and it did not reflect at all well on the party he was trying to promote.
We're all embarrassed from time to time by members of our own team, CR.
This is true. I can embarass myself also. But I hope I'm not a total tit (be nice)
Lol! I wouldn't have to try too hard, CR.
These things go in cycles but at the moment most of my favorite posters (i.e. regardless of Party) are right-leaning rather than left. In particular, we seem to have lost many of the best LD posters - Icarus and Augustus Carp to name but a few.
Perhaps they will have more time on their hands after the election.
Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.
No excuses.
really ?
all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.
No excuses.
really ?
all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
not everyone is as grumpy as you
I'm a ray of concentrated sunshine compared to the average ulsterman
I knew there was a reason why we only sent cousin Edward to Ulster...
Or alternatively ; party with known libertarian leanings has open mind on how consenting adults manage their relationships. Nothing to see here move along now please. ..
Fox Because of the obvious point they have TWO votes, one for their constituency, and most Holyrood seats are Labour v SNP marginals now, and the second for the list where they can vote Tory
I think that as of next week SLAB will not be in second place in many Holyrood constituency seats that are Con targets. As we see Cons are particularly reluctant to vote tactically.
We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?
Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.
Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.
Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.
So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.
Another internet panel where 25% of respondents - equivalent to 11-12 million in the electorate - claim to have watched all of last night's debates. Real audience 4 million.
Or alternatively ; party with known libertarian leanings has open mind on how consenting adults manage their relationships. Nothing to see here move along now please. ..
The idea that the Green party is in any way Libertarian is one of the most ludicrous I have ever heard on here.
CON+LD 25 short of the number they need. LAB+SNP just over the limit but may need DUP.
A second election is the only way out.
What will change in a second election? SNP crash and burn? UKIP stand in seven seats? LibDems take their ball home? What?
First, if Clegg loses his seat then the LD switch to the Labour camp. Second , Miliband would be PM for a short while without the SNP, quelling the scare stories. Third , the SNP can't gain more than 59 seats, they will lose a few from the clean sweep of the first election.
A repeat of the 1974 scenario is very likely and favours Miliband, he will gain some extra seats, while weakening the SNP and flipping the LD on his side, not to mention that the Tory party would be in a midst of a leadership campaign.
Another internet panel where 25% of respondents - equivalent to 11-12 million in the electorate - claim to have watched all of last night's debates. Real audience 4 million.
Nothing will alter the fact that on May 7', approximately 100,000 voters will be going to the booth deciding to either stay the course or back out if it at the eleventh hour. They will probably split one to two and the direction will determine the outcome. It's all about the narrative after bank holiday (numbers assumption, premise inviolate)
Maybe the lack of Conservative contacts being recorded is partially due to the "I'm your Independent MP who just happens to be in the Conservative party" style of campaigning which has been noticed at this election.
We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?
Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.
Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.
Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.
So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.
The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV.
For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.
Harry Cole retweeted Jamie Ross@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.
Was great tv.. one of my fav so far this year
I forwarded that part of the show as I find Rubenstein unbearable, then I saw on twitter that had got a hammering a took great pleasure rewinding and watching
We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?
Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.
Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.
Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.
So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.
Been saying that for that for ages, but you will never convince anyone that has spent hours on the stump. They are blinded by their powers of persuasion.
We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?
Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.
Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.
Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.
So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.
The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV.
Remember, Labour won 1987 seats with 1983 votes.
Although GOTV is generally easier from defence than attack unless you are cresting like Blair
Or alternatively ; party with known libertarian leanings has open mind on how consenting adults manage their relationships. Nothing to see here move along now please. ..
The idea that the Green party is in any way Libertarian is one of the most ludicrous I have ever heard on here.
Kind of depends on whether your definition of libertarian is primarily about economics. Or whether or is about individual liberty regardless of economic status. You could argue that being poor in a rich society restricts your liberty. Therefore policies that redistribute wealth increase the liberty of the poorest in society. ...
We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?
Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.
Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.
Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.
So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.
Been saying that for that for ages, but you will never convince anyone that has spent hours on the stump. They are blinded by their powers of persuasion.
Sorry should have qualified that, they are blinded by their ability to persuade themselves.
BBC News 6pm: Cameron doesn't think UKIP will have any MPs.
What an ass. Clearly he hasn't been in Clacton of late.
UKIP would probably have 3-5 MP's, max 7.
Which is remarkable given that on their 2010 results they need to score on average more than 16% to gain an MP. Their vote might be on early 2013 levels but their seat totals would be much higher than the one predicted back then.
Or alternatively ; party with known libertarian leanings has open mind on how consenting adults manage their relationships. Nothing to see here move along now please. ..
The idea that the Green party is in any way Libertarian is one of the most ludicrous I have ever heard on here.
Kind of depends on whether your definition of libertarian is primarily about economics. Or whether or is about individual liberty regardless of economic status. You could argue that being poor in a rich society restricts your liberty. Therefore policies that redistribute wealth increase the liberty of the poorest in society. ...
Capitalism to sell mobiles in Africa has moved more poor people out of poverty than any government interventions or communist (Green) style redistributions.
SNP Facebook: Ed Militwunt - I'd rather let the Tories in than deal with the SNP !
Murphy must be desperate. Maybe he asked him to say it, it throws places like Coatbridge completely under the bus.
There is no doubt that this will help Murphy hold his seat. Without it no Tory would bother to vote Labour. Now they have some reason, albeit small.
The impact on Labour voters is hard to gauge. Who will get blamed if it all goes wrong and a second election is held. I guess as Labour in Scotland have less to lose they are probably not upset with another go.
Sad to see so many Lib Dems about to lose their seats. The lack of a broad voter base will hurt them in future Scottish elections even if they keep a few seats.
For the Tories in Scotland this is not a key election. They are much more interested in the vote next year and the chance to pick up a few more MSPs.
One thing is clear from the marginals polling: Cons could really do without the UKIP menace. Shame Dave spent the past few years dismissing UKIP supporters fruitcakes and loonies.
When so many of them are it's difficult not to. By the way, before you say that's no way to get the kippers back, I don't want them back, I'm more than happy not to be associated with large numbers of them.
How is that majority working out for you? Looks like yet another 5 years where the Tories have not won a general election. Hopefully if they shift even further to the left they will pick up more Guardian reader votes.
I can't make this any easier for you. I would rather not have a Tory majority government if it means bringing in the more barking of kippers, you know the ones who really took offence at Cameron's remarks, because they recognised themselves all too clearly.
We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?
Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.
Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.
Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.
So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.
The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV.
Remember, Labour won 1987 seats with 1983 votes.
You haven't answered my question.
If you were to be correct, turnout should have been higher in those seats. It wasn't.
Con also outperformed UNS - implying they won more marginals than they should have done - despite worse GOTV.
But ultimately it comes down to turnout. If seats are being targeted then turnout should rise.
Maybe the lack of Conservative contacts being recorded is partially due to the "I'm your Independent MP who just happens to be in the Conservative party" style of campaigning which has been noticed at this election.
Main election addresses have only started going out today. Labour sent theirs at the start of the month.
We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?
Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.
Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.
Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.
So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.
Been saying that for that for ages, but you will never convince anyone that has spent hours on the stump. They are blinded by their powers of persuasion.
GOTV is not about persuading anyone. It is about making sure [ encourage ] identified Party supporters actually vote.
Particularly, those who are elderly. We never knock when Corrie is on.
We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?
Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.
Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.
Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.
So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.
Been saying that for that for ages, but you will never convince anyone that has spent hours on the stump. They are blinded by their powers of persuasion.
If both sides are playing, it's pretty much a zero sum game. If one side has a really major advantage though, that can make the difference. But that won't be the case in most seats that are marginal.
We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?
Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.
Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.
Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.
So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.
The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV.
Remember, Labour won 1987 seats with 1983 votes.
You haven't answered my question.
If you were to be correct, turnout should have been higher in those seats. It wasn't.
Con also outperformed UNS - implying they won more marginals than they should have done - despite worse GOTV.
But ultimately it comes down to turnout. If seats are being targeted then turnout should rise.
I thought Con was expected to win. If I remember correctly, it was something like Con 320, Lab 212 and LD 95 or something like that.
For @Patrick, and @Richard_Tyndall, an article I wrote is the cover story on Platt's Energy Economist, so I'm feeling a little smug today. (I just hope I'm right.)
For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.
Harry Cole retweeted Jamie Ross@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.
Portillo should go back into proper politics, he's tasted lashings of humble pie and come out the other side a better man.
Exacto. Identify your vote and then turn them out.
Hammering the Tories at door knocking as well.
Volunteers will not beat "paid" workers.
I remember distributing leaflets in mansion block/flats.
We knew the door bell no. of a supporter who would 9/10 let us in. Then we will see piles of Tory literature on the carpet. Obviously they just shoved it through the main door postal flap.
We would shove our leaflets in each flat's individual letter boxes.
For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.
Harry Cole retweeted Jamie Ross@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.
Portillo should go back into proper politics, he's tasted lashings of humble pie and come out the other side a better man.
Indeed. Often the way though, politicians have to retire before they start being honest, insightful and wise. Agree with Portillo on most things - not Trident though!
We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?
Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.
Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.
Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.
So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.
Been saying that for that for ages, but you will never convince anyone that has spent hours on the stump. They are blinded by their powers of persuasion.
If both sides are playing, it's pretty much a zero sum game. If one side has a really major advantage though, that can make the difference. But that won't be the case in most seats that are marginal.
Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
Won't change any result in scotland. The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats. If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
Won't change any result in scotland. The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats. If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.
Harry Cole retweeted Jamie Ross@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.
Portillo should go back into proper politics, he's tasted lashings of humble pie and come out the other side a better man.
BBC News 6pm: Cameron doesn't think UKIP will have any MPs.
What an ass. Clearly he hasn't been in Clacton of late.
He just gave the lefty BBC with that comment,two hits with one stone.
What the hell is he playing at,it will only make tory/ukip light voters go 'really' we'll show you.
Cameron should be jumping on Ed Miliband's denial the last labour government didn't over spend .
Indeed. This was the day the Tories could have consolidated Cam's win last night and drive the message home that Miliband is a fantasist regarding the economy. But nothing from them, nothing, just bollocks about an EU referendum delivered at ASDA HQ. Sums up their campaign.
For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.
Harry Cole retweeted Jamie Ross@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.
Portillo should go back into proper politics, he's tasted lashings of humble pie and come out the other side a better man.
I love Mikey P.. but he explicitly rules it out here in this interview, which is well worth a listen
For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.
Harry Cole retweeted Jamie Ross@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.
Portillo should go back into proper politics, he's tasted lashings of humble pie and come out the other side a better man.
I love Mikey P.. but he explicitly rules it out here in this interview, which is well worth a listen
Or alternatively ; party with known libertarian leanings has open mind on how consenting adults manage their relationships. Nothing to see here move along now please. ..
Libertarian? Really? Judging by their manifesto, they strike me as very bossy, intrusive and Puritanical.
Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
Won't change any result in scotland. The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats. If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
Won't change any result in scotland. The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats. If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
A bigger proportion of UK seats though.
Nope the proportion falls by 0.4%.
But the increased registratiton as a result of indyref would more than cover that, would it not?
Comments
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_probability_by_seat.html
92% probability of victory according to the model used by Hanretty
Yeovil is at 84%;; Torbay 85%; Bath 60%.
The Lib Dems are in DESPERATE trouble in the southwest.
Not going to happen.
Was never going to happen.
On Q2 10% of 2010 Tories have gone SNP from 8% on Q1
I'm smelling MoE giving Murphy hope while in reality Tories are often just not bothering to vote.
No excuses.
Tory lead by 1 on constituency question.
CON +10
LAB -2
UKIP -1
LD -3
GREEN +1
All time SPUD (30 polls 11 pollsters)
CON +2
LAB -15
UKIP +7
LD -2
GREEN +2
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-05-01/greens-will-consider-the-evidence-on-three-way-marriage/
Certainly the party of nuts and fruitcakes.
The swing in E&W is now mostly regionally uniform at 3-3.5% to LAB in Tory seats, which is not much different than what phone polls say.
Murphy must be desperate. Maybe he asked him to say it, it throws places like Coatbridge completely under the bus.
all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
Harry Cole retweeted
Jamie Ross@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago
I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.
I'm a Labourite but expect Crabb to sneak back in with a reduced majority, but I wouldn't bet a fiver on it, let alone £50k
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-05-01/moment-man-loses-trousers-while-taking-clegg-selfie/
The ground campaign wasn't great last time either, was it? Their computer system was a shambles. They've had 5 years to make amends.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/05/01/many-questions-still-remain-in-death-freddie-gray/
These things go in cycles but at the moment most of my favorite posters (i.e. regardless of Party) are right-leaning rather than left. In particular, we seem to have lost many of the best LD posters - Icarus and Augustus Carp to name but a few.
Perhaps they will have more time on their hands after the election.
@alstewitn: .@itvnews at 6:30pm Has it gone from the 'Winner Takes it All' to the 'Deal or No Deal' election? @carldinnen @chrisshipitv
Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.
Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.
Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.
So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.
Second , Miliband would be PM for a short while without the SNP, quelling the scare stories.
Third , the SNP can't gain more than 59 seats, they will lose a few from the clean sweep of the first election.
A repeat of the 1974 scenario is very likely and favours Miliband, he will gain some extra seats, while weakening the SNP and flipping the LD on his side, not to mention that the Tory party would be in a midst of a leadership campaign.
It's all about the narrative after bank holiday
(numbers assumption, premise inviolate)
Remember, Labour won 1987 seats with 1983 votes.
I forwarded that part of the show as I find Rubenstein unbearable, then I saw on twitter that had got a hammering a took great pleasure rewinding and watching
Not happening this time
What an ass. Clearly he hasn't been in Clacton of late.
"Dog bites Man" news.
2010: 29% votes 258 seats.
Scotland was in both of them.
https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/594172841874083841
Which is remarkable given that on their 2010 results they need to score on average more than 16% to gain an MP.
Their vote might be on early 2013 levels but their seat totals would be much higher than the one predicted back then.
Capitalism to sell mobiles in Africa has moved more poor people out of poverty than any government interventions or communist (Green) style redistributions.
The impact on Labour voters is hard to gauge. Who will get blamed if it all goes wrong and a second election is held. I guess as Labour in Scotland have less to lose they are probably not upset with another go.
Sad to see so many Lib Dems about to lose their seats. The lack of a broad voter base will hurt them in future Scottish elections even if they keep a few seats.
For the Tories in Scotland this is not a key election. They are much more interested in the vote next year and the chance to pick up a few more MSPs.
If you were to be correct, turnout should have been higher in those seats. It wasn't.
Con also outperformed UNS - implying they won more marginals than they should have done - despite worse GOTV.
But ultimately it comes down to turnout. If seats are being targeted then turnout should rise.
Particularly, those who are elderly. We never knock when Corrie is on.
The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
Exacto. Identify your vote and then turn them out.
Hammering the Tories at door knocking as well.
MikeL's arguments is that (if it was working) you would see turnout higher in those areas where GOTV was being pushed by both sides.
He says turnout is not higher in those marginal areas therefore GOTV makes little difference.
They also blogged about my piece here: http://blogs.platts.com/2015/05/01/ma-ep-sector-oil-prices/#more-20291
Second warning. Change your email address to a real one, or your account will be suspended.
What the hell is he playing at,it will only make tory/ukip light voters go 'really' we'll show you.
Cameron should be jumping on Ed Miliband's denial the last labour government didn't over spend .
I remember distributing leaflets in mansion block/flats.
We knew the door bell no. of a supporter who would 9/10 let us in. Then we will see piles of Tory literature on the carpet. Obviously they just shoved it through the main door postal flap.
We would shove our leaflets in each flat's individual letter boxes.
No one paid us to do it !
Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats.
If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
You will be pleased to know that the Tories have no one to knock on doors then.
https://soundcloud.com/thepoliticalparty/show-20-michael-portillo
Why is turnout no higher in the most marginal seats - which all parties are putting most effort into?
So you're saying that turnout is higher in Sunderland than in Hampstead and Kilburn?
Hampstead - turnout 66%
Hendon - turnout 59%
Camborne - turnout 66%
Warwickshire North - turnout 67%
Bolton West - turnout 67%
Every one of those seats was won by under 100 votes. All on a knife-edge. All demanding the maximum possible campaigning attention.
England average - turnout 65.5%