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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Friday afternoon/evening pollercoaster – rolling thread

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    About North Cornwall:

    http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_probability_by_seat.html

    92% probability of victory according to the model used by Hanretty

    Yeovil is at 84%;; Torbay 85%; Bath 60%.

    The Lib Dems are in DESPERATE trouble in the southwest.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    Pulpstar said:

    @JBeattieMirror: @DailyMirror @Survation poll Lab 34% (+5 on last week), Cons 33% (NC), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dems 9% (-1), SNP 4% (NC) Greens 3% (-1) #GE2015

    The numbers that Survation has been wiggling around throughout the campaign are:
    Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17

    Still looks like no change to anything other than statistical noise around the mean.
    Are you calling it for Ed :D ?!

    #boom
    The Tories are between 1% and 3% ahead. I don't know which and I don't know what it'll be on the day.

    I'm pretty confident now that the Tories will get at least 280 seats. But that's not good enough. They need 295.
    Which is just 11 down on 2010 I think.

    Not going to happen.

    Was never going to happen.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:
    On Q2 20% of 2010 Tories have gone Labour from 16% on Q1
    On Q2 10% of 2010 Tories have gone SNP from 8% on Q1

    I'm smelling MoE giving Murphy hope while in reality Tories are often just not bothering to vote.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Pulpstar said:
    I'd agree with your analysis, interestingly the Q2 answer was 41% SNP and 35% SLAB, as Lord A has reported a 3% difference, I guess this must be due to a 3% spiral of silence adjustment. These adjustments need more transparency in my opinion.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.

    No excuses.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2015
    Sting in the tail :smiley:

    Tory lead by 1 on constituency question.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    SPUD this week (13 polls 9 pollsters)
    CON +10
    LAB -2
    UKIP -1
    LD -3
    GREEN +1

    All time SPUD (30 polls 11 pollsters)
    CON +2
    LAB -15
    UKIP +7
    LD -2
    GREEN +2
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.

    No excuses.

    Agreed. Reinforces the red belief their boots on the ground might swing it for them at the very least.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Greens prove that they are the last refuge for lost causes.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-05-01/greens-will-consider-the-evidence-on-three-way-marriage/

    Certainly the party of nuts and fruitcakes.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Pulpstar said:

    @JBeattieMirror: @DailyMirror @Survation poll Lab 34% (+5 on last week), Cons 33% (NC), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dems 9% (-1), SNP 4% (NC) Greens 3% (-1) #GE2015

    The numbers that Survation has been wiggling around throughout the campaign are:
    Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17

    Still looks like no change to anything other than statistical noise around the mean.
    Are you calling it for Ed :D ?!

    #boom
    The Tories are between 1% and 3% ahead. I don't know which and I don't know what it'll be on the day.

    I'm pretty confident now that the Tories will get at least 280 seats. But that's not good enough. They need 295.
    My calculation based on the constituency polls now say Tories 275 thanks to London.
    The swing in E&W is now mostly regionally uniform at 3-3.5% to LAB in Tory seats, which is not much different than what phone polls say.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154

    Tory tactical votes to save Jim Murphy? Lol.

    Tories voting for a Tory, well who would have thunk it!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    SNP Facebook: Ed Militwunt - I'd rather let the Tories in than deal with the SNP !

    Murphy must be desperate. Maybe he asked him to say it, it throws places like Coatbridge completely under the bus.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.

    No excuses.

    @PeterMannionMP: @AaronBell80 @MSmithsonPB @LordAshcroft analysis shows no correlation between where Lab contact is highest and where Labour is doing best.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.

    No excuses.

    really ?

    all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    About North Cornwall:

    http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_probability_by_seat.html

    92% probability of victory according to the model used by Hanretty

    Yeovil is at 84%;; Torbay 85%; Bath 60%.

    The Lib Dems are in DESPERATE trouble in the southwest.

    Nope, it's just that the Tories were silly in throwing so many resources and time in Yeovil.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCJamesCook: Welcoming committee for Ed Miliband in Glasgow. They’re playing the Muppet Show theme.b #ge2015 http://t.co/YG9p1UXWdI
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Jamie Ross‏@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago
    I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Pulpstar said:

    About North Cornwall:

    http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_probability_by_seat.html

    92% probability of victory according to the model used by Hanretty

    Yeovil is at 84%;; Torbay 85%; Bath 60%.

    The Lib Dems are in DESPERATE trouble in the southwest.

    If Bath is 25% worse off than Torbay - then the LibDems are REALLY in trouble!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    dr_spyn said:

    Eric Joyce court case.

    http://t.co/u7td5OaYJW

    An odd chap is Eric Joyce – Whatever the personal circumstances surrounding his life, some time ago he appears to have set a course hell bent on destroying both his Military and political career.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    Blimey, this is confidence for you. A punter in my neck of the woods had waged £50k on Steven Crabb to win Preseli at 1/4.

    I'm a Labourite but expect Crabb to sneak back in with a reduced majority, but I wouldn't bet a fiver on it, let alone £50k
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913

    Miliband's denial last night that Labour overspent 1997-2010 should be all over the news like Brown's "bigoted woman". Unfortunately for the Tories, it has gained zero traction in the media beyond the usual crew like the Telegraph.

    The BBC did run it reasonably prominently on the 10 o'clock news. Nick Robinson also got pretty close to saying that Ed had had a shocker too. I agree though it hasn't got the attention it deserves - on that Ed should be confined to a psychiatric home rather than made PM.

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited May 2015

    Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.

    No excuses.

    Agreed. Reinforces the red belief their boots on the ground might swing it for them at the very least.
    What has Shapps been doing?

    The ground campaign wasn't great last time either, was it? Their computer system was a shambles. They've had 5 years to make amends.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nightmare on Downing Street.

    Out soon.

    CON+LD 25 short of the number they need.
    LAB+SNP just over the limit but may need DUP.

    A second election is the only way out.
    What will change in a second election? SNP crash and burn? UKIP stand in seven seats? LibDems take their ball home? What?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Charles said:

    Tim_B said:

    In Baltimore, arrest warrants have been issued for 6 police officers involved in the Freddie Gray arrest, one for second degree murder, and Gray's death has been ruled a homicide.

    Good.

    Second degree murder feels a little harsh - do you guys still have negligent homicide, which would feel more appropriate here.

    But it's important that something is done. There's something utterly wrong in the US policing system. I don't think it's "racism" per se, but there's a willingness to think the worst of citizens, and a willingness to use excessive force that is deeply worrying.
    Some more details, interesting that up to now the races of the cops involved have not been released

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/05/01/many-questions-still-remain-in-death-freddie-gray/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCPolitics: UKIP suspends #GE2015 candidate Jack Sen after he's accused of making anti-Semitic comments towards Labour rival http://t.co/QKbRCijuDQ
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.

    No excuses.

    really ?

    all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
    not everyone is as grumpy as you :wink:
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Charles said:

    Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.

    No excuses.

    really ?

    all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
    not everyone is as grumpy as you :wink:
    Charles said:

    Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.

    No excuses.

    really ?

    all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
    not everyone is as grumpy as you :wink:
    I'm a ray of concentrated sunshine compared to the average ulsterman
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Scrapheap, tried watching that twice. Can't get far. Rubinstein[sp] is a damned fool.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.

    No excuses.

    Agreed. Reinforces the red belief their boots on the ground might swing it for them at the very least.
    What has Shapps been doing?

    The ground campaign wasn't great last time either, was it? Their computer system was a shambles. They've had 5 years to make amends.
    Updating wikipedia

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.

    No excuses.

    Agreed. Reinforces the red belief their boots on the ground might swing it for them at the very least.
    What has Shapps been doing?

    The ground campaign wasn't great last time either, was it? Their computer system was a shambles. They've had 5 years to make amends.
    Don't talk to me about Shapps. Please.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    saddened said:

    One thing is clear from the marginals polling: Cons could really do without the UKIP menace. Shame Dave spent the past few years dismissing UKIP supporters fruitcakes and loonies.

    When so many of them are it's difficult not to. By the way, before you say that's no way to get the kippers back, I don't want them back, I'm more than happy not to be associated with large numbers of them.
    How is that majority working out for you? Looks like yet another 5 years where the Tories have not won a general election. Hopefully if they shift even further to the left they will pick up more Guardian reader votes.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477

    Danny565 said:

    Labour ahead in Peterborough but behind in top London targets?! Bizarre.

    Peterborough may be a rare example of a reverse incumbency bonus.
    He's not exactly my cup of tea, Peter, but I struggle to see how the Tories will do worse in Peterborough than 2005, 2001 and even 1997.

    Even Ashcroft polls have an MoE. I expect him to hold.
    Probably, regrettably.....

    There are some politicians I would vote for whatever their Party, and others I would not vote for under any circumstances.

    Guess where Stewart Jackson falls?
    As a Conservative supporter, I was deeply embarrassed by his posts on here when he was a regular.

    The contrast between him and Nick Palmer couldn't have been stronger, and it did not reflect at all well on the party he was trying to promote.
    We're all embarrassed from time to time by members of our own team, CR.

    This is true. I can embarass myself also. But I hope I'm not a total tit (be nice)
    Lol! I wouldn't have to try too hard, CR.

    These things go in cycles but at the moment most of my favorite posters (i.e. regardless of Party) are right-leaning rather than left. In particular, we seem to have lost many of the best LD posters - Icarus and Augustus Carp to name but a few.

    Perhaps they will have more time on their hands after the election.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.

    No excuses.

    really ?

    all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
    not everyone is as grumpy as you :wink:
    Charles said:

    Mike is right on voter contact. There really is no excuse for this from the Cons. It is poor and sloppy campaign management and a weak groundgame that has been historically a Tory strength.

    No excuses.

    really ?

    all my leaflets go straight into the bin unread with the rest of the junk mail. They have no effect whatsoever.
    not everyone is as grumpy as you :wink:
    I'm a ray of concentrated sunshine compared to the average ulsterman
    I knew there was a reason why we only sent cousin Edward to Ulster...
  • dr_spyn said:

    Greens prove that they are the last refuge for lost causes.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-05-01/greens-will-consider-the-evidence-on-three-way-marriage/

    Certainly the party of nuts and fruitcakes.

    Or alternatively ; party with known libertarian leanings has open mind on how consenting adults manage their relationships. Nothing to see here move along now please. ..
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Fox Because of the obvious point they have TWO votes, one for their constituency, and most Holyrood seats are Labour v SNP marginals now, and the second for the list where they can vote Tory

    I think that as of next week SLAB will not be in second place in many Holyrood constituency seats that are Con targets. As we see Cons are particularly reluctant to vote tactically.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450

    We held back the best bit of Milibrand. Watch trew election conclusion Monday https://t.co/JJo5aSt9P6

    — Russell Brand (@rustyrockets) May 1, 2015
    There is something utterly brilliant about this dramatic trailer being punctuated by Ed rather plain and boring voice.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ed really has shut down the SNP talk...

    @alstewitn: .@itvnews at 6:30pm Has it gone from the 'Winner Takes it All' to the 'Deal or No Deal' election? @carldinnen @chrisshipitv
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?

    Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.

    Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.

    Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.

    So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JournoStephen: Daisley Mail: Anger as man declines to be punched in face repeatedly http://t.co/7VYe9lfNkj http://t.co/ikjojiAzUe
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Another internet panel where 25% of respondents - equivalent to 11-12 million in the electorate - claim to have watched all of last night's debates. Real audience 4 million.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    dr_spyn said:

    Greens prove that they are the last refuge for lost causes.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-05-01/greens-will-consider-the-evidence-on-three-way-marriage/

    Certainly the party of nuts and fruitcakes.

    Or alternatively ; party with known libertarian leanings has open mind on how consenting adults manage their relationships. Nothing to see here move along now please. ..
    The idea that the Green party is in any way Libertarian is one of the most ludicrous I have ever heard on here.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nightmare on Downing Street.

    Out soon.

    CON+LD 25 short of the number they need.
    LAB+SNP just over the limit but may need DUP.

    A second election is the only way out.
    What will change in a second election? SNP crash and burn? UKIP stand in seven seats? LibDems take their ball home? What?
    First, if Clegg loses his seat then the LD switch to the Labour camp.
    Second , Miliband would be PM for a short while without the SNP, quelling the scare stories.
    Third , the SNP can't gain more than 59 seats, they will lose a few from the clean sweep of the first election.

    A repeat of the 1974 scenario is very likely and favours Miliband, he will gain some extra seats, while weakening the SNP and flipping the LD on his side, not to mention that the Tory party would be in a midst of a leadership campaign.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Even I didn't bother after 2mins of Clegg.
    chestnut said:

    Another internet panel where 25% of respondents - equivalent to 11-12 million in the electorate - claim to have watched all of last night's debates. Real audience 4 million.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2015
    Nothing will alter the fact that on May 7', approximately 100,000 voters will be going to the booth deciding to either stay the course or back out if it at the eleventh hour. They will probably split one to two and the direction will determine the outcome.
    It's all about the narrative after bank holiday
    (numbers assumption, premise inviolate)
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,596
    Maybe the lack of Conservative contacts being recorded is partially due to the "I'm your Independent MP who just happens to be in the Conservative party" style of campaigning which has been noticed at this election.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeL said:

    We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?

    Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.

    Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.

    Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.

    So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.

    The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV.

    Remember, Labour won 1987 seats with 1983 votes.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Jamie Ross‏@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago
    I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.

    Was great tv.. one of my fav so far this year

    I forwarded that part of the show as I find Rubenstein unbearable, then I saw on twitter that had got a hammering a took great pleasure rewinding and watching
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    surbiton said:


    The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV.

    The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV. Scotland

    Not happening this time
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    BBC News 6pm: Cameron doesn't think UKIP will have any MPs.

    What an ass. Clearly he hasn't been in Clacton of late.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    MikeL said:

    We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?

    Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.

    Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.

    Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.

    So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.

    Been saying that for that for ages, but you will never convince anyone that has spent hours on the stump. They are blinded by their powers of persuasion.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Has the SPIN slipback started ? I am sure it was 28 an hour back. Now 26.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPolitics: UKIP suspends #GE2015 candidate Jack Sen after he's accused of making anti-Semitic comments towards Labour rival http://t.co/QKbRCijuDQ

    So?
    "Dog bites Man" news.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    surbiton said:

    MikeL said:

    We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?

    Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.

    Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.

    Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.

    So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.

    The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV.

    Remember, Labour won 1987 seats with 1983 votes.
    Although GOTV is generally easier from defence than attack unless you are cresting like Blair
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...
  • dr_spyn said:

    Greens prove that they are the last refuge for lost causes.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-05-01/greens-will-consider-the-evidence-on-three-way-marriage/

    Certainly the party of nuts and fruitcakes.

    Or alternatively ; party with known libertarian leanings has open mind on how consenting adults manage their relationships. Nothing to see here move along now please. ..
    The idea that the Green party is in any way Libertarian is one of the most ludicrous I have ever heard on here.
    Kind of depends on whether your definition of libertarian is primarily about economics. Or whether or is about individual liberty regardless of economic status. You could argue that being poor in a rich society restricts your liberty. Therefore policies that redistribute wealth increase the liberty of the poorest in society. ...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    BBC News 6pm: Cameron doesn't think UKIP will have any MPs.

    What an ass. Clearly he hasn't been in Clacton of late.

    Carswell is begging to come home perhaps!
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    NoEasyDay said:

    MikeL said:

    We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?

    Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.

    Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.

    Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.

    So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.

    Been saying that for that for ages, but you will never convince anyone that has spent hours on the stump. They are blinded by their powers of persuasion.
    Sorry should have qualified that, they are blinded by their ability to persuade themselves.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    surbiton said:


    The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV.

    The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV. Scotland

    Not happening this time
    1983: 28% votes 209 seats

    2010: 29% votes 258 seats.

    Scotland was in both of them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Pulpstar said:

    About North Cornwall:

    http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_probability_by_seat.html

    92% probability of victory according to the model used by Hanretty

    Yeovil is at 84%;; Torbay 85%; Bath 60%.

    The Lib Dems are in DESPERATE trouble in the southwest.

    If Bath is 25% worse off than Torbay - then the LibDems are REALLY in trouble!
    I'm on the LDs taking a bath in Bath.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...

    Beeb say Muppets:

    https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/594172841874083841

  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    surbiton said:


    The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV.

    The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV. Scotland

    Not happening this time
    1983: 28% votes 209 seats

    2010: 29% votes 258 seats.

    Scotland was in both of them.
    That was before the days of one Scottish Tory MP
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    BBC News 6pm: Cameron doesn't think UKIP will have any MPs.

    What an ass. Clearly he hasn't been in Clacton of late.

    UKIP would probably have 3-5 MP's, max 7.

    Which is remarkable given that on their 2010 results they need to score on average more than 16% to gain an MP.
    Their vote might be on early 2013 levels but their seat totals would be much higher than the one predicted back then.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    dr_spyn said:

    Greens prove that they are the last refuge for lost causes.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-05-01/greens-will-consider-the-evidence-on-three-way-marriage/

    Certainly the party of nuts and fruitcakes.

    Or alternatively ; party with known libertarian leanings has open mind on how consenting adults manage their relationships. Nothing to see here move along now please. ..
    The idea that the Green party is in any way Libertarian is one of the most ludicrous I have ever heard on here.
    Kind of depends on whether your definition of libertarian is primarily about economics. Or whether or is about individual liberty regardless of economic status. You could argue that being poor in a rich society restricts your liberty. Therefore policies that redistribute wealth increase the liberty of the poorest in society. ...

    Capitalism to sell mobiles in Africa has moved more poor people out of poverty than any government interventions or communist (Green) style redistributions.

  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 664
    Pulpstar said:

    SNP Facebook: Ed Militwunt - I'd rather let the Tories in than deal with the SNP !

    Murphy must be desperate. Maybe he asked him to say it, it throws places like Coatbridge completely under the bus.

    There is no doubt that this will help Murphy hold his seat. Without it no Tory would bother to vote Labour. Now they have some reason, albeit small.

    The impact on Labour voters is hard to gauge. Who will get blamed if it all goes wrong and a second election is held. I guess as Labour in Scotland have less to lose they are probably not upset with another go.

    Sad to see so many Lib Dems about to lose their seats. The lack of a broad voter base will hurt them in future Scottish elections even if they keep a few seats.

    For the Tories in Scotland this is not a key election. They are much more interested in the vote next year and the chance to pick up a few more MSPs.








  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MP_SE said:

    saddened said:

    One thing is clear from the marginals polling: Cons could really do without the UKIP menace. Shame Dave spent the past few years dismissing UKIP supporters fruitcakes and loonies.

    When so many of them are it's difficult not to. By the way, before you say that's no way to get the kippers back, I don't want them back, I'm more than happy not to be associated with large numbers of them.
    How is that majority working out for you? Looks like yet another 5 years where the Tories have not won a general election. Hopefully if they shift even further to the left they will pick up more Guardian reader votes.
    I can't make this any easier for you. I would rather not have a Tory majority government if it means bringing in the more barking of kippers, you know the ones who really took offence at Cameron's remarks, because they recognised themselves all too clearly.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    surbiton said:

    MikeL said:

    We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?

    Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.

    Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.

    Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.

    So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.

    The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV.

    Remember, Labour won 1987 seats with 1983 votes.
    You haven't answered my question.

    If you were to be correct, turnout should have been higher in those seats. It wasn't.

    Con also outperformed UNS - implying they won more marginals than they should have done - despite worse GOTV.

    But ultimately it comes down to turnout. If seats are being targeted then turnout should rise.
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255

    Maybe the lack of Conservative contacts being recorded is partially due to the "I'm your Independent MP who just happens to be in the Conservative party" style of campaigning which has been noticed at this election.

    Main election addresses have only started going out today. Labour sent theirs at the start of the month.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    NoEasyDay said:

    MikeL said:

    We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?

    Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.

    Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.

    Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.

    So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.

    Been saying that for that for ages, but you will never convince anyone that has spent hours on the stump. They are blinded by their powers of persuasion.
    GOTV is not about persuading anyone. It is about making sure [ encourage ] identified Party supporters actually vote.

    Particularly, those who are elderly. We never knock when Corrie is on.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...

    Won't change any result in scotland.
    The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    edited May 2015
    NoEasyDay said:

    MikeL said:

    We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?

    Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.

    Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.

    Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.

    So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.

    Been saying that for that for ages, but you will never convince anyone that has spent hours on the stump. They are blinded by their powers of persuasion.
    If both sides are playing, it's pretty much a zero sum game. If one side has a really major advantage though, that can make the difference. But that won't be the case in most seats that are marginal.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Surbiton

    Exacto. Identify your vote and then turn them out.

    Hammering the Tories at door knocking as well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    IOS said:

    Surbiton

    Exacto. Identify your vote and then turn them out.

    Hammering the Tories at door knocking as well.

    But how many of Labour's millions of doorstep conversations begin "I'd vote for you if you didn't have a twat for a leader....."?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeL said:

    surbiton said:

    MikeL said:

    We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?

    Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.

    Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.

    Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.

    So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.

    The reason Labour won 258 seats and not 230 was because of GOTV.

    Remember, Labour won 1987 seats with 1983 votes.
    You haven't answered my question.

    If you were to be correct, turnout should have been higher in those seats. It wasn't.

    Con also outperformed UNS - implying they won more marginals than they should have done - despite worse GOTV.

    But ultimately it comes down to turnout. If seats are being targeted then turnout should rise.
    I thought Con was expected to win. If I remember correctly, it was something like Con 320, Lab 212 and LD 95 or something like that.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    IOS said:

    Surbiton

    Exacto. Identify your vote and then turn them out.

    Hammering the Tories at door knocking as well.


    MikeL's arguments is that (if it was working) you would see turnout higher in those areas where GOTV was being pushed by both sides.

    He says turnout is not higher in those marginal areas therefore GOTV makes little difference.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...

    Won't change any result in scotland.
    The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
    Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    For @Patrick, and @Richard_Tyndall, an article I wrote is the cover story on Platt's Energy Economist, so I'm feeling a little smug today. (I just hope I'm right.)

    They also blogged about my piece here: http://blogs.platts.com/2015/05/01/ma-ep-sector-oil-prices/#more-20291
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Jamie Ross‏@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago
    I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.

    Portillo should go back into proper politics, he's tasted lashings of humble pie and come out the other side a better man.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...

    Won't change any result in scotland.
    The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
    Possibly now hated more in Scotland than even Thatcher, outstanding job he is doing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    @trublu

    Second warning. Change your email address to a real one, or your account will be suspended.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    MikeL doesn't have a clue what he is talking about then!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    BBC News 6pm: Cameron doesn't think UKIP will have any MPs.

    What an ass. Clearly he hasn't been in Clacton of late.

    He just gave the lefty BBC with that comment,two hits with one stone.

    What the hell is he playing at,it will only make tory/ukip light voters go 'really' we'll show you.

    Cameron should be jumping on Ed Miliband's denial the last labour government didn't over spend .
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    IOS said:

    Surbiton

    Exacto. Identify your vote and then turn them out.

    Hammering the Tories at door knocking as well.

    Volunteers will not beat "paid" workers.

    I remember distributing leaflets in mansion block/flats.

    We knew the door bell no. of a supporter who would 9/10 let us in. Then we will see piles of Tory literature on the carpet. Obviously they just shoved it through the main door postal flap.

    We would shove our leaflets in each flat's individual letter boxes.

    No one paid us to do it !
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Pulpstar said:

    For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Jamie Ross‏@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago
    I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.

    Portillo should go back into proper politics, he's tasted lashings of humble pie and come out the other side a better man.
    Indeed. Often the way though, politicians have to retire before they start being honest, insightful and wise. Agree with Portillo on most things - not Trident though!
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454

    NoEasyDay said:

    MikeL said:

    We read endless posts on here about targeting / ground game / GOTV etc but does it actually make any difference?

    Fact: In 2010, in the most marginal seats, turnout was no higher than the national average.

    Yet these were the seats all parties were putting most resources into.

    Lots of people on here are involved in politics and campaigning. Everybody likes to think that what they do is important and makes a difference. Nobody wants to think that what they do is a waste of time.

    So it's not surprising that people think all their campaigning is important. But if it doesn't actually affect turnout at all, it looks as if it's all, in fact, a waste of time.

    Been saying that for that for ages, but you will never convince anyone that has spent hours on the stump. They are blinded by their powers of persuasion.
    If both sides are playing, it's pretty much a zero sum game. If one side has a really major advantage though, that can make the difference. But that won't be the case in most seats that are marginal.
    I absolutely agree.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015

    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...

    Won't change any result in scotland.
    The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
    Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
    I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.

    Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats.
    If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395

    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...

    Won't change any result in scotland.
    The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
    Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
    Not to mention Holyrood 2016.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    MarqueeMark and NoEasyDay

    You will be pleased to know that the Tories have no one to knock on doors then.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...

    Won't change any result in scotland.
    The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
    Possibly now hated more in Scotland than even Thatcher, outstanding job he is doing.
    Willie Bain can't have been pleased about Ed's performance last night.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...

    Won't change any result in scotland.
    The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
    Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
    I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.

    Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats.
    If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
    A bigger proportion of UK seats though.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    Pulpstar said:

    For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Jamie Ross‏@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago
    I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.

    Portillo should go back into proper politics, he's tasted lashings of humble pie and come out the other side a better man.
    Hear hear.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    BBC News 6pm: Cameron doesn't think UKIP will have any MPs.

    What an ass. Clearly he hasn't been in Clacton of late.

    He just gave the lefty BBC with that comment,two hits with one stone.

    What the hell is he playing at,it will only make tory/ukip light voters go 'really' we'll show you.

    Cameron should be jumping on Ed Miliband's denial the last labour government didn't over spend .
    Indeed. This was the day the Tories could have consolidated Cam's win last night and drive the message home that Miliband is a fantasist regarding the economy. But nothing from them, nothing, just bollocks about an EU referendum delivered at ASDA HQ. Sums up their campaign.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Jamie Ross‏@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago
    I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.

    Portillo should go back into proper politics, he's tasted lashings of humble pie and come out the other side a better man.
    I love Mikey P.. but he explicitly rules it out here in this interview, which is well worth a listen

    https://soundcloud.com/thepoliticalparty/show-20-michael-portillo
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    IOS said:

    MikeL doesn't have a clue what he is talking about then!

    You have not attempted to answer my question.

    Why is turnout no higher in the most marginal seats - which all parties are putting most effort into?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    For those who missed last night's this week - I see the speccie are revisiting Andrew Neil and Portillo's polite yet total arse-shredding of the biggest complete and utter cock seen on television since piers morgan was prime time.

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Jamie Ross‏@JamieRoss7·3 mins3 minutes ago
    I'm glad that men in their mid-to-late 30s like Brand and Jolyon Rubinstein are around to explain what young people think about politics.

    Portillo should go back into proper politics, he's tasted lashings of humble pie and come out the other side a better man.
    I love Mikey P.. but he explicitly rules it out here in this interview, which is well worth a listen

    https://soundcloud.com/thepoliticalparty/show-20-michael-portillo
    I particularly liked the way [ as an ex Defence Secretary ] he and Andrew Neil demolished Trident. Worth a watch just for that.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    dr_spyn said:

    Greens prove that they are the last refuge for lost causes.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-05-01/greens-will-consider-the-evidence-on-three-way-marriage/

    Certainly the party of nuts and fruitcakes.

    Or alternatively ; party with known libertarian leanings has open mind on how consenting adults manage their relationships. Nothing to see here move along now please. ..
    Libertarian? Really? Judging by their manifesto, they strike me as very bossy, intrusive and Puritanical.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...

    Won't change any result in scotland.
    The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
    Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
    I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.

    Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats.
    If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
    A bigger proportion of UK seats though.
    Nope the proportion falls by 0.4%.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: demonstrators play "funeral march" for Miliband as he arrives in Glasgow...

    Won't change any result in scotland.
    The SNP can gain no further than their 58-59 seats that they are already projected to win.
    Now it's just a question of how many they turn from "marginal" to "safe".....
    I think all of them apart from a dozen seats, mostly inner city, the border ones and the Shetlands.

    Forget about scotland, the country can still be governed if someone has a block of 57% of E&W seats.
    If the boundary review passes then it's fewer seats for scotland anyway.
    A bigger proportion of UK seats though.
    Nope the proportion falls by 0.4%.
    But the increased registratiton as a result of indyref would more than cover that, would it not?

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Mike

    So you're saying that turnout is higher in Sunderland than in Hampstead and Kilburn?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    2010 most marginal seats (all have majorities below 100 VOTES):

    Hampstead - turnout 66%
    Hendon - turnout 59%
    Camborne - turnout 66%
    Warwickshire North - turnout 67%
    Bolton West - turnout 67%

    Every one of those seats was won by under 100 votes. All on a knife-edge. All demanding the maximum possible campaigning attention.

    England average - turnout 65.5%
This discussion has been closed.