IOS If it wasn't for UKIP the Tories would be well over 40%, if Cameron squeezes that vote he will certainly lead the largest party, his EU referendum pledge tonight and Miliband's dismissal of it will help, Netanyahu squeezed rightwing parties votes in Israel to move ahead in the final days without winning any over from the Israeli Labour Party, Cameron could do the same
Unlike the Israeli election where everything is decided on national vote shares same doesn't apply here. This is about 650 separate contest under FPTP.
The UKIP vote is about as close to UNS as we've got (which is why on 15% they'd still win virtually no seats). If the Tories squeeze UKIP successfully, it will result in holds and gains. The great majority of voters in the great majority of seats vote on their perceptions of parties, leaders and policies.
Nah - over being less than a week away and the Tories still not being able to get ahead.
Absolutely true..
..apart from Ipsos MORI, Survation, ICM, Opinium, TNS, Ashcroft
You're going to lose, and I think you know it.
Define lose
I think that the Tories will end up with most votes. I'm not so sure about most seats. So much at the margin down to the ground ops in maybe 20 key seats and the evidence is that LAB doing better there.
The entire campaign process appears to have done nothing. People pick and choose polls based on the results they like, but if we aggregate the numbers we see the bigger picture
In the first 7 days of the campaign we have 16 polls, with a total sample size of 25,425, combined this resulted in Con 33.26%, Lab 33.89%
In the last 7 days we've had 20 polls with a total sample of 30,043, combined this resulted in Con 33.55%, Lab 33.57% (tonight's Yougov will push the labour lead very slightly).
Nothing has changed, there is no huge blue momentum, it's a statistical dead heat. I don't expect this to change over the last 6 days. The tory media have already flung (both) kitchen sinks at Milliband. Hasn't worked.
Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.
If you don't like the result then fiddle the system, eh?
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting. I have supported PR for 30 years.
I believe Miliband will win a tiny tiny plurality and become PM (or PM of a party that is slightly smaller than the Tories (this latter statement is not my original prediction)).
He will need SNP support and this will collapse by Holyrood 2016 under the weight of contradictions (not least the SNP demanding a new referendum).
Miliband's government will fall in 2016 and the Tories will sweep back into power.
I predict a second election this year. Miliband might become PM but he might refuse SNP support to kill the SNP scare stories in practice and then go for a second election in the autumn like Wilson in 1974.
Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.
If you don't like the result then fiddle the system, eh?
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting. I have supported PR for 30 years.
There won't be a wasted vote in the whole of Scotland, and perhaps not the Southwest either
Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.
If you don't like the result then fiddle the system, eh?
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting. I have supported PR for 30 years.
Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.
If you don't like the result then fiddle the system, eh?
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting. I have supported PR for 30 years.
There won't be a wasted vote in the whole of Scotland, and perhaps not the Southwest either
There will be millions of wasted votes. That's the current system.
Can we now - at least - agree that the Debates, in some form, are a permanent part of our political furniture, and that, by accident, we may have stumbled over the best format of all?
What we just saw was by a distance the best 90 minutes of political questioning in this election. All 3 leaders looked uncomfortable, at times, all got a proper interrogation by ordinary people.
The BBC did an excellent job. The only flaw was the absence of Farage. He would have livened it up no end after the non-event of Clegg.
I hope they are now a permanent fixture. But the format needs to be settled and inclusive.
LD Manifesto P132 We will: "Work with the broadcasters to formalise the process for Leaders' Debates in General Elections, helping ensure they happen and setting a clear threshold for those eligible to participate."
Green manifesto P.62 we would" Give fair representation to political parties in televised debates"
Couldn't find anything in the Con, UKIP or Lab manifestos with a quick search I think we'll be in for another fudge. But at least the broadcasters should be more prepared.
All I'm saying is that you don't use something as personal as this in politics. If a stranger said something deeply personal to you it would make you feel uncomfortable. For a politician to do this is just plain wrong.
I believe Miliband will win a tiny tiny plurality and become PM (or PM of a party that is slightly smaller than the Tories (this latter statement is not my original prediction)).
He will need SNP support and this will collapse by Holyrood 2016 under the weight of contradictions (not least the SNP demanding a new referendum).
Miliband's government will fall in 2016 and the Tories will sweep back into power.
Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.
If you don't like the result then fiddle the system, eh?
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting. I have supported PR for 30 years.
There won't be a wasted vote in the whole of Scotland, and perhaps not the Southwest either
There will be millions of wasted votes. That's the current system.
Anyway - how many people have voted already - at least 15% of the people that are going to vote I reckon.
Not sure there are many people to shift in the center - just about getting out your core.
Step forward the ground game.
As an Eastleigh resident i am stunned by the lack of the feeling of an election in this area. I always felt this was the lib dems safest seat, yet I have not received a single piece of election literature from them and neither have my work colleagues who also live in Eastleigh . It's very odd . The Tories seem to be the only ones who are making an effort. I'm very confused.
The entire campaign process appears to have done nothing. People pick and choose polls based on the results they like, but if we aggregate the numbers we see the bigger picture
In the first 7 days of the campaign we have 16 polls, with a total sample size of 25,425, combined this resulted in Con 33.26%, Lab 33.89%
In the last 7 days we've had 20 polls with a total sample of 30,043, combined this resulted in Con 33.55%, Lab 33.57% (tonight's Yougov will push the labour lead very slightly).
Nothing has changed, there is no huge blue momentum, it's a statistical dead heat. I don't expect this to change over the last 6 days. The tory media have already flung (both) kitchen sinks at Milliband. Hasn't worked.
One thing changed.
The SNP have gone from high 40s to low 50s, quite a significant bump over the campaign.
I believe Miliband will win a tiny tiny plurality and become PM (or PM of a party that is slightly smaller than the Tories (this latter statement is not my original prediction)).
He will need SNP support and this will collapse by Holyrood 2016 under the weight of contradictions (not least the SNP demanding a new referendum).
Miliband's government will fall in 2016 and the Tories will sweep back into power.
Watching the #bbcqt coverage, I'm starting to get a 1992 feeling about this election. (Tho no Tory maj this time.)
In 1992 the polls were wrong because of wrong demographic weighting, they based their weightings on the 1981 census rather than the 1991 one, because it wasn't yet published, instead they used their own estimates which were fairly wrong.
Once the 1991 census was published and the pollsters used it, it revealed that the Tories were ahead all along for years before 1992 and had never lost their lead.
Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.
If you don't like the result then fiddle the system, eh?
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting. I have supported PR for 30 years.
Grow up
That's the high level of political debate I love here. I'm amazed that the Tories still stand by FPTP. A triumph of hope over expectation. And nothing to do with fairness or democracy.
Well no one took up my last charity challenge so here is another one. Do you believe that the SNP will win 58 or more seats. If so are you willing to enter a charity wager of £50. I believe that they won't get that many; if I am wrong I pay a charity of your choice £50, and if I am right you pay £50 to mine. First person to accept only. Must be a UK wide charity and not a religious one. My nominated charity is the Cure Parkinsons Trust.
Please accept this in the sporting spirit in which it is intended, irrespective of political opinions.
The entire campaign process appears to have done nothing. People pick and choose polls based on the results they like, but if we aggregate the numbers we see the bigger picture
In the first 7 days of the campaign we have 16 polls, with a total sample size of 25,425, combined this resulted in Con 33.26%, Lab 33.89%
In the last 7 days we've had 20 polls with a total sample of 30,043, combined this resulted in Con 33.55%, Lab 33.57% (tonight's Yougov will push the labour lead very slightly).
Nothing has changed, there is no huge blue momentum, it's a statistical dead heat. I don't expect this to change over the last 6 days. The tory media have already flung (both) kitchen sinks at Milliband. Hasn't worked.
One thing changed.
The SNP have gone from high 40s to low 50s, quite a significant bump over the campaign.
Agreed, but as there hasn't been a fall off in overall labour scores, we must assume they have gained ground in england whilst this has been happening in Scotland.
The SNP wipe out of the Scottish Lib Dems may turn out to be the most important event of the night
I believe Miliband will win a tiny tiny plurality and become PM (or PM of a party that is slightly smaller than the Tories (this latter statement is not my original prediction)).
He will need SNP support and this will collapse by Holyrood 2016 under the weight of contradictions (not least the SNP demanding a new referendum).
Miliband's government will fall in 2016 and the Tories will sweep back into power.
Tory minority best bet by miles.
There's a difference between a good bet and what's likeliest to happen. Con minority at 5/1 is excellent value but Lab minority rightly still favourite.
The entire campaign process appears to have done nothing...Nothing has changed, there is no huge blue momentum, it's a statistical dead heat. I don't expect this to change over the last 6 days. .
Quite. If not before now, why would it? Some thought people would see the light about one side or the other by now, but what movement there has been has not been significant enough.
Anyway - how many people have voted already - at least 15% of the people that are going to vote I reckon.
Not sure there are many people to shift in the center - just about getting out your core.
Step forward the ground game.
As an Eastleigh resident i am stunned by the lack of the feeling of an election in this area. I always felt this was the lib dems safest seat, yet I have not received a single piece of election literature from them and neither have my work colleagues who also live in Eastleigh . It's very odd . The Tories seem to be the only ones who are making an effort. I'm very confused.
Amazing. I'm seriously beginning to wonder if Ashcroft Question ONE might be the correct one.
I believe Miliband will win a tiny tiny plurality and become PM (or PM of a party that is slightly smaller than the Tories (this latter statement is not my original prediction)).
He will need SNP support and this will collapse by Holyrood 2016 under the weight of contradictions (not least the SNP demanding a new referendum).
Miliband's government will fall in 2016 and the Tories will sweep back into power.
I predict a second election this year. Miliband might become PM but he might refuse SNP support to kill the SNP scare stories in practice and then go for a second election in the autumn like Wilson in 1974.
MissLeahMarie @LittleMissUKIP 4h4 hours ago The BBC are disgusting. Decided to tell everyone WHEN WE GOT THERE that only some of us are allowed in for "balance" reasons. BBC bastards.
You can't have it both ways, whining about lack of balance when the dear leader gets gyp from a "biased" audience, then whining when they take steps to balance the audience.
Watching the #bbcqt coverage, I'm starting to get a 1992 feeling about this election. (Tho no Tory maj this time.)
In 1992 the polls were wrong because of wrong demographic weighting, they based their weightings on the 1981 census rather than the 1991 one, because it wasn't yet published.
Once the 1991 census was published and the pollsters used it, it revealed that the Tories were ahead all along for years before 1992 and had never lost their lead.
Yes, but the big unknown here is all the minor parties. We haven't had a GE were so many parties are scoring significant percentages. The polls might be getting all the weighting etc correct, we don't know at the moment.
All I'm saying is that you don't use something as personal as this in politics. If a stranger said something deeply personal to you it would make you feel uncomfortable. For a politician to do this is just plain wrong.
If it is sincere, then it is not plain wrong to use it. Don't people ask for more sincerity in politics?
Hearing him mention it does make me uncomfortable in point of fact, but that says more than me than Cameron I think, if we accept his sincerity i feel.
Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.
If you don't like the result then fiddle the system, eh?
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting. I have supported PR for 30 years.
There won't be a wasted vote in the whole of Scotland, and perhaps not the Southwest either
There will be millions of wasted votes. That's the current system.
Every vote is an expression of preference and as such, matters. The fact that not all votes contribute to the election of an MP is beside the point. Why should they? If that was the prime objective you'd have a single national list giving virtually no accountability over individual MPs or meaningful connection between localities and parliament.
FWIW, I favour PR given the number of effective parties we now have but I don't regard any vote as wasted.
I believe Miliband will win a tiny tiny plurality and become PM (or PM of a party that is slightly smaller than the Tories (this latter statement is not my original prediction)).
He will need SNP support and this will collapse by Holyrood 2016 under the weight of contradictions (not least the SNP demanding a new referendum).
Miliband's government will fall in 2016 and the Tories will sweep back into power.
I predict a second election this year. Miliband might become PM but he might refuse SNP support to kill the SNP scare stories in practice and then go for a second election in the autumn like Wilson in 1974.
The rerun of the 1970s meme.
I have a special youtube video to post here in case Labour gets most seats next Thursday, and it is a 1970's one, just to show the similarities.
Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.
If you don't like the result then fiddle the system, eh?
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting. I have supported PR for 30 years.
There won't be a wasted vote in the whole of Scotland, and perhaps not the Southwest either
There will be millions of wasted votes. That's the current system.
Every vote is an expression of preference and as such, matters. The fact that not all votes contribute to the election of an MP is beside the point. Why should they? If that was the prime objective you'd have a single national list giving virtually no accountability over individual MPs or meaningful connection between localities and parliament.
FWIW, I favour PR given the number of effective parties we now have but I don't regard any vote as wasted.
Fair point, but a vote that is a tiny part of a party's vote share and nothing else is a big factor in the disengagement with politics by the populace.
I believe Miliband will win a tiny tiny plurality and become PM (or PM of a party that is slightly smaller than the Tories (this latter statement is not my original prediction)).
He will need SNP support and this will collapse by Holyrood 2016 under the weight of contradictions (not least the SNP demanding a new referendum).
Miliband's government will fall in 2016 and the Tories will sweep back into power.
I predict a second election this year. Miliband might become PM but he might refuse SNP support to kill the SNP scare stories in practice and then go for a second election in the autumn like Wilson in 1974.
Which he does how, precisely?
If Miliband becomes PM, I'd expect him to remain in office until at least Autumn 2016 and probably Spring 2017. It's not in the interests of the other parties to bring him down before then. He has to be seen to fail.
Anyway - how many people have voted already - at least 15% of the people that are going to vote I reckon.
Not sure there are many people to shift in the center - just about getting out your core.
Step forward the ground game.
As an Eastleigh resident i am stunned by the lack of the feeling of an election in this area. I always felt this was the lib dems safest seat, yet I have not received a single piece of election literature from them and neither have my work colleagues who also live in Eastleigh . It's very odd . The Tories seem to be the only ones who are making an effort. I'm very confused.
It is an odd one. I live in a safe Tory seat and received nothing from them yet, classic taking the seat for granted behaviour (I am sure I will get something in the final week as a token effort), but I've had 4 leaflets from the LDs already even though they were 20 pts behind last time, and so will likely be a lot further behind this time. Either they are targeting their resources poorly, or they have some enthusiastic locals near to my location at least.
Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.
If you don't like the result then fiddle the system, eh?
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting. I have supported PR for 30 years.
Grow up
That's the high level of political debate I love here. I'm amazed that the Tories still stand by FPTP. A triumph of hope over expectation. And nothing to do with fairness or democracy.
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting.
I want world peace and no hunger in world where everyone loves everyone.....oh and where there are no wasted votes. And i vote socks with sandals are banned, Will my vote make make that happen
Desperate hatchet job by BBC Scotland on Nicola Sturgeon.
You mean allowing a woman who had been made redundant by the Scottish NHS under Nicola's reign and then ignored when she tried to commit suicide to ask a question was unfair. Don't worry Dair maybe she is not Scottish. I am sure she is really British or even English!!
So you don't support replacing managers in the NHS with clinical staff?
Even the woman herself was embarrassed to say her former job title (it was something like Educational Outreach Project Manager)
My problem with the SNP is not some of the actions but the holier than thou attitude. The SNP have made some tough decisions some of which worked and some which were pretty poor. I run a company that makes medical kits amongst other things. We sell them across the UK but not in Scotland where they would rather buy cheap poor quality kits from China with instruments that are not sharp and made by workers on below poverty wages. Now the SNP suggest they will impose a living wage on our company. Total hypocrisy.
The entire campaign process appears to have done nothing. People pick and choose polls based on the results they like, but if we aggregate the numbers we see the bigger picture
In the first 7 days of the campaign we have 16 polls, with a total sample size of 25,425, combined this resulted in Con 33.26%, Lab 33.89%
In the last 7 days we've had 20 polls with a total sample of 30,043, combined this resulted in Con 33.55%, Lab 33.57% (tonight's Yougov will push the labour lead very slightly).
Nothing has changed, there is no huge blue momentum, it's a statistical dead heat. I don't expect this to change over the last 6 days. The tory media have already flung (both) kitchen sinks at Milliband. Hasn't worked.
One thing changed.
The SNP have gone from high 40s to low 50s, quite a significant bump over the campaign.
Agreed, but as there hasn't been a fall off in overall labour scores, we must assume they have gained ground in england whilst this has been happening in Scotland.
The SNP wipe out of the Scottish Lib Dems may turn out to be the most important event of the night
Indeed I think this has been overlooked.
Throughout their days in the wilderness in the 50s, 60s and 70s it was those heartland Liberal seats in the Highlands that kept the Liberal Party alive. Without those seats, their future as a party of any consequence at all is in genuine jeaopardy.
Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.
If you don't like the result then fiddle the system, eh?
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting. I have supported PR for 30 years.
Grow up
That's the high level of political debate I love here. I'm amazed that the Tories still stand by FPTP. A triumph of hope over expectation. And nothing to do with fairness or democracy.
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting.
I want world peace and no hunger in world where everyone loves everyone.....oh and where there are no wasted votes. And i vote socks with sandals are banned, Will my vote make make that happen
Are you ten years old.
What a pleasant person you are. Do you abuse because you can't form an argument or is it just for fun?
The entire campaign process appears to have done nothing...Nothing has changed, there is no huge blue momentum, it's a statistical dead heat. I don't expect this to change over the last 6 days. .
Quite. If not before now, why would it? Some thought people would see the light about one side or the other by now, but what movement there has been has not been significant enough.
The only thing I can take from the polls over the last two weeks is that the Tories biggest leads have been 5-6% whereas labours biggest leads have been 2-3%. I don't know if this means anything . I do wonder if the polling narrative would be different if you gov was weekly not daily. You gov are asking the same people over and over and reporting daily. If you gov was weekly then I think Cameron would be favourite in the betting to be next pm
Anyway - how many people have voted already - at least 15% of the people that are going to vote I reckon.
Not sure there are many people to shift in the center - just about getting out your core.
Step forward the ground game.
As an Eastleigh resident i am stunned by the lack of the feeling of an election in this area. I always felt this was the lib dems safest seat, yet I have not received a single piece of election literature from them and neither have my work colleagues who also live in Eastleigh . It's very odd . The Tories seem to be the only ones who are making an effort. I'm very confused.
Amazing. I'm seriously beginning to wonder if Ashcroft Question ONE might be the correct one.
Eastleigh was a 3 way split at the by election. Since then then the LD vote has slipped further and I cannot see UKIP doing any where like the same. I think the Cons are value.
Cameron got the better of tonight but will it move many votes? I doubt it. I still think that Cameron made a serious mistake in not debating Miliband head to head. He thought it was the safe thing to do because swing back was going to deliver this election to him on a plate.
The truth was very far from these now discredited models. The truth was that it was the Tories that had to take the chances and swing from the hip to have any chance of delivering a win. A major misjudgement based on the models has resulted in a series of too cautious decisions. It is only in the last week or so the Tories have started to appreciate how much they were always up against it.
Who will be the largest party is still too close to call but even after tonight who will be able to win a vote of confidence in Parliament is not.
Anyway - how many people have voted already - at least 15% of the people that are going to vote I reckon.
Not sure there are many people to shift in the center - just about getting out your core.
Step forward the ground game.
As an Eastleigh resident i am stunned by the lack of the feeling of an election in this area. I always felt this was the lib dems safest seat, yet I have not received a single piece of election literature from them and neither have my work colleagues who also live in Eastleigh . It's very odd . The Tories seem to be the only ones who are making an effort. I'm very confused.
It is an odd one. I live in a safe Tory seat and received nothing from them yet, classic taking the seat for granted behaviour (I am sure I will get something in the final week as a token effort), but I've had 4 leaflets from the LDs already even though they were 20 pts behind last time, and so will likely be a lot further behind this time. Either they are targeting their resources poorly, or they have some enthusiastic locals near to my location at least.
Is there a council election at the same time? If do that's your answer.
I believe Miliband will win a tiny tiny plurality and become PM (or PM of a party that is slightly smaller than the Tories (this latter statement is not my original prediction)).
He will need SNP support and this will collapse by Holyrood 2016 under the weight of contradictions (not least the SNP demanding a new referendum).
Miliband's government will fall in 2016 and the Tories will sweep back into power.
There is a possibility if scores are around 280 con 270 lab that neither party forms a government because of unwillingness to deal with SNP or with libs if they refuse EU referendum that we end up with an immediate second GE
I believe Miliband will win a tiny tiny plurality and become PM (or PM of a party that is slightly smaller than the Tories (this latter statement is not my original prediction)).
He will need SNP support and this will collapse by Holyrood 2016 under the weight of contradictions (not least the SNP demanding a new referendum).
Miliband's government will fall in 2016 and the Tories will sweep back into power.
I predict a second election this year. Miliband might become PM but he might refuse SNP support to kill the SNP scare stories in practice and then go for a second election in the autumn like Wilson in 1974.
Which he does how, precisely?
If Miliband becomes PM, I'd expect him to remain in office until at least Autumn 2016 and probably Spring 2017. It's not in the interests of the other parties to bring him down before then. He has to be seen to fail.
Miliband can orchestrate a loss on a vote of confidence in order to trigger an election, he might even instruct his own party to vote against the government in order to ensure a second election if needed, and he will explain it as such under the Fixed Parliaments Act.
Anyway - how many people have voted already - at least 15% of the people that are going to vote I reckon.
Not sure there are many people to shift in the center - just about getting out your core.
Step forward the ground game.
As an Eastleigh resident i am stunned by the lack of the feeling of an election in this area. I always felt this was the lib dems safest seat, yet I have not received a single piece of election literature from them and neither have my work colleagues who also live in Eastleigh . It's very odd . The Tories seem to be the only ones who are making an effort. I'm very confused.
Amazing. I'm seriously beginning to wonder if Ashcroft Question ONE might be the correct one.
Eastleigh was a 3 way split at the by election. Since then then the LD vote has slipped further and I cannot see UKIP doing any where like the same. I think the Cons are value.
Normally a week before an election Eastleigh turns orange with the number of lib dem banners and posters. Not this time.
Anyway - how many people have voted already - at least 15% of the people that are going to vote I reckon.
Not sure there are many people to shift in the center - just about getting out your core.
Step forward the ground game.
As an Eastleigh resident i am stunned by the lack of the feeling of an election in this area. I always felt this was the lib dems safest seat, yet I have not received a single piece of election literature from them and neither have my work colleagues who also live in Eastleigh . It's very odd . The Tories seem to be the only ones who are making an effort. I'm very confused.
It is an odd one. I live in a safe Tory seat and received nothing from them yet, classic taking the seat for granted behaviour (I am sure I will get something in the final week as a token effort), but I've had 4 leaflets from the LDs already even though they were 20 pts behind last time, and so will likely be a lot further behind this time. Either they are targeting their resources poorly, or they have some enthusiastic locals near to my location at least.
Safe tory seat - why should they bombard you with leaflets 4 weeks ago? I got mine a couple of days ago. V safe sear. What do leaflets tell you.
Given the stage is set so because they have failed to maintain a surge to date (significant enough to alter things at any rate), that's not much of a comment from Mr Forsyth. Of course the stage is set for a late Tory surge, they've failed to prevent that from becoming their only hope!
The entire campaign process appears to have done nothing...Nothing has changed, there is no huge blue momentum, it's a statistical dead heat. I don't expect this to change over the last 6 days. .
Quite. If not before now, why would it? Some thought people would see the light about one side or the other by now, but what movement there has been has not been significant enough.
The only thing I can take from the polls over the last two weeks is that the Tories biggest leads have been 5-6% whereas labours biggest leads have been 2-3%. I don't know if this means anything . I do wonder if the polling narrative would be different if you gov was weekly not daily. You gov are asking the same people over and over and reporting daily. If you gov was weekly then I think Cameron would be favourite in the betting to be next pm
Possibly. The near certainty that any significant movement elsewhere will be offset by YouGov does seem to have a diminishing effect on the general mood.
Desperate hatchet job by BBC Scotland on Nicola Sturgeon.
You mean allowing a woman who had been made redundant by the Scottish NHS under Nicola's reign and then ignored when she tried to commit suicide to ask a question was unfair. Don't worry Dair maybe she is not Scottish. I am sure she is really British or even English!!
So you don't support replacing managers in the NHS with clinical staff?
Even the woman herself was embarrassed to say her former job title (it was something like Educational Outreach Project Manager)
My problem with the SNP is not some of the actions but the holier than thou attitude. The SNP have made some tough decisions some of which worked and some which were pretty poor. I run a company that makes medical kits amongst other things. We sell them across the UK but not in Scotland where they would rather buy cheap poor quality kits from China with instruments that are not sharp and made by workers on below poverty wages. Now the SNP suggest they will impose a living wage on our company. Total hypocrisy.
Strange that with such inferior equipment the Scottish Health Service does not have worse mortality rates than England or Wales.
Maybe you are right and the Scottish Health Service should be buying overpriced equipment from you but it seems that the results don't bear out your claims of shoddy equipment. Personally it seems to me the Scottish Health Service are getting this right.
Wage rates are far too low in the UK, a higher minimum wage is needed and would not impact employment just as it didn't impact employment when first introduced (despite all the warnings of catastrophe from "business leaders". If there is a case for subsidising employment from general taxes, there are more efficient ways of doing it than doing it through private companies.
This Farage debate seems very boring and sterile compared to the QT one. My Sky box cut it out as its got a recording clash with the Mentalist finale and The Last Leg on +1 and frankly I don't intend to cancel either of them to continue watching this boring thing.
PoliticsHome @politicshome · 4 mins4 minutes ago Nick Clegg "talking crap" on tuition fees? Ex-No 10 adviser says DPM was "keen" on fee rise http://polho.me/1OK1pGH
Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.
If you don't like the result then fiddle the system, eh?
No. I want a system that represents the will of the people and where there are no wasted votes and no need for tactical voting. I have supported PR for 30 years.
There won't be a wasted vote in the whole of Scotland, and perhaps not the Southwest either
There will be millions of wasted votes. That's the current system.
Every vote is an expression of preference and as such, matters. The fact that not all votes contribute to the election of an MP is beside the point. Why should they? If that was the prime objective you'd have a single national list giving virtually no accountability over individual MPs or meaningful connection between localities and parliament.
FWIW, I favour PR given the number of effective parties we now have but I don't regard any vote as wasted.
Agreed The election is and should be fought constituency by constiuency
Would be like saying Man City should be champions because they scored the most goals in aggregate over the season
Cameron got the better of tonight but will it move many votes? I doubt it. I still think that Cameron made a serious mistake in not debating Miliband head to head. He thought it was the safe thing to do because swing back was going to deliver this election to him on a plate.
The truth was very far from these now discredited models. The truth was that it was the Tories that had to take the chances and swing from the hip to have any chance of delivering a win. A major misjudgement based on the models has resulted in a series of too cautious decisions. It is only in the last week or so the Tories have started to appreciate how much they were always up against it.
Who will be the largest party is still too close to call but even after tonight who will be able to win a vote of confidence in Parliament is not.
I completely agree David. The public want to see our politicians take more risks in campaigns. This one has been a little boring. Which is amazing considering how close it is.
Anyway - how many people have voted already - at least 15% of the people that are going to vote I reckon.
Not sure there are many people to shift in the center - just about getting out your core.
Step forward the ground game.
As an Eastleigh resident i am stunned by the lack of the feeling of an election in this area. I always felt this was the lib dems safest seat, yet I have not received a single piece of election literature from them and neither have my work colleagues who also live in Eastleigh . It's very odd . The Tories seem to be the only ones who are making an effort. I'm very confused.
It is an odd one. I live in a safe Tory seat and received nothing from them yet, classic taking the seat for granted behaviour (I am sure I will get something in the final week as a token effort), but I've had 4 leaflets from the LDs already even though they were 20 pts behind last time, and so will likely be a lot further behind this time. Either they are targeting their resources poorly, or they have some enthusiastic locals near to my location at least.
Is there a council election at the same time? If do that's your answer.
No council election either. It's weird. I don't really want to decide who to vote for on my 'who put the most effort in' factor (assuming the parties cannot convince me some other way in the next 6 days, but I cannot see that happening) based on leafleting, but it may end up being all I have to go on.
I do remember 1992, I just explained further down that it was the demographic weighting being based on the 1981 census rather than the 1991 that made the pollsters go wrong back then. Not much of an issue this year.
I believe Miliband will win a tiny tiny plurality and become PM (or PM of a party that is slightly smaller than the Tories (this latter statement is not my original prediction)).
He will need SNP support and this will collapse by Holyrood 2016 under the weight of contradictions (not least the SNP demanding a new referendum).
Miliband's government will fall in 2016 and the Tories will sweep back into power.
I predict a second election this year. Miliband might become PM but he might refuse SNP support to kill the SNP scare stories in practice and then go for a second election in the autumn like Wilson in 1974.
Which he does how, precisely?
If Miliband becomes PM, I'd expect him to remain in office until at least Autumn 2016 and probably Spring 2017. It's not in the interests of the other parties to bring him down before then. He has to be seen to fail.
Miliband can orchestrate a loss on a vote of confidence in order to trigger an election, he might even instruct his own party to vote against the government in order to ensure a second election if needed, and he will explain it as such under the Fixed Parliaments Act.
Would it though? There may well be at least the possibility that Cameron might form a government if Labour had kicked their own party out of office on a tactic.
Anyway - how many people have voted already - at least 15% of the people that are going to vote I reckon.
Not sure there are many people to shift in the center - just about getting out your core.
Step forward the ground game.
As an Eastleigh resident i am stunned by the lack of the feeling of an election in this area. I always felt this was the lib dems safest seat, yet I have not received a single piece of election literature from them and neither have my work colleagues who also live in Eastleigh . It's very odd . The Tories seem to be the only ones who are making an effort. I'm very confused.
It is an odd one. I live in a safe Tory seat and received nothing from them yet, classic taking the seat for granted behaviour (I am sure I will get something in the final week as a token effort), but I've had 4 leaflets from the LDs already even though they were 20 pts behind last time, and so will likely be a lot further behind this time. Either they are targeting their resources poorly, or they have some enthusiastic locals near to my location at least.
Safe tory seat - why should they bombard you with leaflets 4 weeks ago? I got mine a couple of days ago. V safe sear. What do leaflets tell you.
You misunderstand. It's not the lack of Tory leaflets that surprises me (as you say, it's a safe seat, why would they bother), it's that the LDs are bombarding me in comparison, when they have no chance.
Alastair Campbell @campbellclaret · Apr 28 One of the many reasons to want @Ed_Miliband to win is that it will show it can be done in the face of enormous corrupt media bias
@PeteWishart: Important front page in the National tomorrow. This is only going to get bigger. All over for Lab, methinks. https://t.co/t3upVzfxGV
Two things 1. Milliband must be very worried about how the SNP issue is playing on the doorstep to keep going on about this. 2. How does he explain getting a queens speech through, with what must be a deal with the SNP.
PB is such a Tory-dominated place. Look who's been posting tonight: IOS, Roger, tyson, Jonathan, compouter2, FrankBooth, Smarmeron, Dair, surbiton, bigjohnowls, the place is stuffed full of Tories.
Anyway - how many people have voted already - at least 15% of the people that are going to vote I reckon.
Not sure there are many people to shift in the center - just about getting out your core.
Step forward the ground game.
As an Eastleigh resident i am stunned by the lack of the feeling of an election in this area. I always felt this was the lib dems safest seat, yet I have not received a single piece of election literature from them and neither have my work colleagues who also live in Eastleigh . It's very odd . The Tories seem to be the only ones who are making an effort. I'm very confused.
Amazing. I'm seriously beginning to wonder if Ashcroft Question ONE might be the correct one.
Eastleigh was a 3 way split at the by election. Since then then the LD vote has slipped further and I cannot see UKIP doing any where like the same. I think the Cons are value.
Normally a week before an election Eastleigh turns orange with the number of lib dem banners and posters. Not this time.
I was meeting with a travelling med rep today. In the interest of PB posterwatch I asked whether he had seen any on his travels. He said that he had seen a few in Cheshire but not really anywhere else.
Keith Vaz now has a fair few up. I alsa saw a Labour minibus heading along the A47 in the direction. I think just passing through Rutland on the way to Peterborough.
I have now had 2 leaflets. 1 Con and 1 LD. Nill from the others with 1 week to go.
I believe Miliband will win a tiny tiny plurality and become PM (or PM of a party that is slightly smaller than the Tories (this latter statement is not my original prediction)).
He will need SNP support and this will collapse by Holyrood 2016 under the weight of contradictions (not least the SNP demanding a new referendum).
Miliband's government will fall in 2016 and the Tories will sweep back into power.
I predict a second election this year. Miliband might become PM but he might refuse SNP support to kill the SNP scare stories in practice and then go for a second election in the autumn like Wilson in 1974.
Which he does how, precisely?
If Miliband becomes PM, I'd expect him to remain in office until at least Autumn 2016 and probably Spring 2017. It's not in the interests of the other parties to bring him down before then. He has to be seen to fail.
Miliband can orchestrate a loss on a vote of confidence in order to trigger an election, he might even instruct his own party to vote against the government in order to ensure a second election if needed, and he will explain it as such under the Fixed Parliaments Act.
Would it though? There may well be at least the possibility that Cameron might form a government if Labour had kicked their own party out of office on a tactic.
If Cameron could then he would have done it already by then just after the election.
This is on the event that Cameron can't form a majority after this election, Miliband becomes PM and then Miliband triggers a second election by forcing a loss in a vote of confidence in order to bypass the Fixed Parliaments Act.
Tax Credits...I wish a politician would have the balls to stand up and say, yes we will cut them...rather than us taxing you, you filling in a load of forms and then us giving some of it back to you...tell you what, we will let you keep it in the first place.
Lots of tax credit recipients (on child tax credit rather than working tax credit) aren't paying any income related tax.
The entire campaign process appears to have done nothing. People pick and choose polls based on the results they like, but if we aggregate the numbers we see the bigger picture
In the first 7 days of the campaign we have 16 polls, with a total sample size of 25,425, combined this resulted in Con 33.26%, Lab 33.89%
In the last 7 days we've had 20 polls with a total sample of 30,043, combined this resulted in Con 33.55%, Lab 33.57% (tonight's Yougov will push the labour lead very slightly).
Nothing has changed, there is no huge blue momentum, it's a statistical dead heat. I don't expect this to change over the last 6 days. The tory media have already flung (both) kitchen sinks at Milliband. Hasn't worked.
Anyway - how many people have voted already - at least 15% of the people that are going to vote I reckon.
Not sure there are many people to shift in the center - just about getting out your core.
Step forward the ground game.
That's been my view for a long time (since around October). I think the Tories have picked up a couple of points recently, but the overall position remains close to a tie, with fluctuations from poll to poll. Election campaigns very rarely shift opinion decisively.
Populus will be the test tomorrow. Even as stable as they usually are, surely there'll be a Tory lead or atleast a tie if there genuinely has been movement this week.
Don't hold your breath. They've not given tories a lead for 8 months.
YG static & dead as a floorboard. Can we all agree to bin YG? Regardless of opinions no polling 7 days a week should have this little movement. Somethings badly wrong there.
No - the YG policy of drawing on a stable panel has reduced the random fluctuation that you get from sampling from a much larger pool. It would only be wrong if the people in that smaller pool are behaving differently in some way from people politically and demogfraphically similar in the rest of the country.
I do think that the remaining undecideds are coming off the fence, to Lab/Con/won't vote, but not in sufficient numbers to change very much.
Comments
**based on their FPTP vote share, under PR their vote shares would plummet. It could easily be a 50% reduction or even more.
In the first 7 days of the campaign we have 16 polls, with a total sample size of 25,425, combined this resulted in Con 33.26%, Lab 33.89%
In the last 7 days we've had 20 polls with a total sample of 30,043, combined this resulted in Con 33.55%, Lab 33.57% (tonight's Yougov will push the labour lead very slightly).
Nothing has changed, there is no huge blue momentum, it's a statistical dead heat. I don't expect this to change over the last 6 days. The tory media have already flung (both) kitchen sinks at Milliband. Hasn't worked.
I have supported PR for 30 years.
Con 279
Lab 270
SNP 48
LD 27
An absolute clusterfuck post election.
Miliband might become PM but he might refuse SNP support to kill the SNP scare stories in practice and then go for a second election in the autumn like Wilson in 1974.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/teams/yorkshire/fixtures
Does the ECB really think this is good scheduling ?
Green manifesto P.62 we would" Give fair representation to political parties in televised debates"
Couldn't find anything in the Con, UKIP or Lab manifestos with a quick search I think we'll be in for another fudge. But at least the broadcasters should be more prepared.
All I'm saying is that you don't use something as personal as this in politics. If a stranger said something deeply personal to you it would make you feel uncomfortable.
For a politician to do this is just plain wrong.
This is known.
The SNP have gone from high 40s to low 50s, quite a significant bump over the campaign.
That is very easy. Ed is PM. I would take that in a second.
Cherio Dave.
Once the 1991 census was published and the pollsters used it, it revealed that the Tories were ahead all along for years before 1992 and had never lost their lead.
I'm amazed that the Tories still stand by FPTP. A triumph of hope over expectation.
And nothing to do with fairness or democracy.
Please accept this in the sporting spirit in which it is intended, irrespective of political opinions.
The SNP wipe out of the Scottish Lib Dems may turn out to be the most important event of the night
Problem with that is the Tories aren't even trying to win a majority.!
Hearing him mention it does make me uncomfortable in point of fact, but that says more than me than Cameron I think, if we accept his sincerity i feel.
FWIW, I favour PR given the number of effective parties we now have but I don't regard any vote as wasted.
You still gonna post - sorry I mean reprint - here when Ed is PM?
Of course you are! Its going to be great for you. Lots of tweets to copy and paste away all day long ...
If Miliband becomes PM, I'd expect him to remain in office until at least Autumn 2016 and probably Spring 2017. It's not in the interests of the other parties to bring him down before then. He has to be seen to fail.
I want world peace and no hunger in world where everyone loves everyone.....oh and where there are no wasted votes. And i vote socks with sandals are banned, Will my vote make make that happen
Are you ten years old.
"Have you not heard of Haute la Garenne?"
I don't think anything has been established
Throughout their days in the wilderness in the 50s, 60s and 70s it was those heartland Liberal seats in the Highlands that kept the Liberal Party alive. Without those seats, their future as a party of any consequence at all is in genuine jeaopardy.
The truth was very far from these now discredited models. The truth was that it was the Tories that had to take the chances and swing from the hip to have any chance of delivering a win. A major misjudgement based on the models has resulted in a series of too cautious decisions. It is only in the last week or so the Tories have started to appreciate how much they were always up against it.
Who will be the largest party is still too close to call but even after tonight who will be able to win a vote of confidence in Parliament is not.
What do leaflets tell you.
You know very well then the Tories aren't taking that seat seriously.
Annoying so many of our lot being subs out there.
One week to go - LAB clear by 5%!!
GE1992 - CON clear by 7%!!!
CON 38 - LAB 28 real possibility next week!!!!
Maybe you are right and the Scottish Health Service should be buying overpriced equipment from you but it seems that the results don't bear out your claims of shoddy equipment. Personally it seems to me the Scottish Health Service are getting this right.
Wage rates are far too low in the UK, a higher minimum wage is needed and would not impact employment just as it didn't impact employment when first introduced (despite all the warnings of catastrophe from "business leaders". If there is a case for subsidising employment from general taxes, there are more efficient ways of doing it than doing it through private companies.
PoliticsHome @politicshome · 4 mins4 minutes ago
Nick Clegg "talking crap" on tuition fees? Ex-No 10 adviser says DPM was "keen" on fee rise http://polho.me/1OK1pGH
The election is and should be fought constituency by constiuency
Would be like saying Man City should be champions because they scored the most goals in aggregate over the season
Not much of an issue this year.
Alastair Campbell @campbellclaret · Apr 28
One of the many reasons to want @Ed_Miliband to win is that it will show it can be done in the face of enormous corrupt media bias
1. Milliband must be very worried about how the SNP issue is playing on the doorstep to keep going on about this.
2. How does he explain getting a queens speech through, with what must be a deal with the SNP.
Keith Vaz now has a fair few up. I alsa saw a Labour minibus heading along the A47 in the direction. I think just passing through Rutland on the way to Peterborough.
I have now had 2 leaflets. 1 Con and 1 LD. Nill from the others with 1 week to go.
This is on the event that Cameron can't form a majority after this election, Miliband becomes PM and then Miliband triggers a second election by forcing a loss in a vote of confidence in order to bypass the Fixed Parliaments Act.
#losers #labourlol #gobacktoyourkitchensmiliband
I do think that the remaining undecideds are coming off the fence, to Lab/Con/won't vote, but not in sufficient numbers to change very much.