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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Either that or he is clueless about the constitution.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Rod

    Ok fair enough.

    I am actually liking the idea of Ed becoming PM with less votes and less seats than Cameron. I cannot imagine how irate the Daily Mail message boards would be.

    Funny as.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    LOL...YOLO...

    Russell Brand gives firm endorsement to Green Party just days after YouTube interview with Miliband

    But comic has now urged Brighton Pavillion voters to back Caroline Lucas

    He described she and Natalie Bennett as 'the very kind of people you want involved in administration and organisation'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3063239/Lost-Number-One-fan-Ed-Russell-Brand-gives-firm-endorsement-Green-Party-just-days-YouTube-interview-Miliband.html
  • IoS just not getting any sense on the doorstep of Labourites being up for it , if anything less than in in 2010. Would have been fery different if you had an Alan Johnson or even DaveM
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    JohnO said:

    SeanT said:

    I see I have drilled into the dental nerve, judging by the response.

    Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick. Any government which relies on the Nats to survive will be seen as a "deal". Voters won't care about the careful usage of the phrase "no deal" that Miliband did or did not employ.

    Tsk. Big unforced error.

    I think the bigger unforced error though was his assertion that Labour did not overspend. That will have greater resonance if the Tories home in on it unrelentingly in these final days of the campaign.
    So what you are saying is that you think that Dave was both strong and (what's the word) Commanding.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @IOS

    'My point was we were out canvassing the Tories according to the Libs.'

    So how many seats are you forecasting you will win in the South West as a result of that huge effort?
  • GoupillonGoupillon Posts: 79
    After tonight I am more optimistic for another Con/LD coalition based on a referendum on the EU in 2017 in exchange for Conservative agreement to the introduction of a PR voting system for both local and national government
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Sean

    "Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick".

    I'm not sure. Labour are at their best in opposition and with Dave in office but without the Lib Dems and with Nicola holding him by his bollocks we should all have an entertaining year.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    SeanT said:

    I see I have drilled into the dental nerve, judging by the response.

    Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick. Any government which relies on the Nats to survive will be seen as a "deal". Voters won't care about the careful usage of the phrase "no deal" that Miliband did or did not employ.

    Tsk. Big unforced error.

    Disagree. The Tories have been banging the drum about Labour being in the Nats pocket. Those of us in the party understand it won't play out like that. Labour believes in the union so can't deal with the SNP. Ed needed to say so. It changes the game and is undeniably a gamble, but then all political messages are.
    It may just return some former SLAB voters back into the fold and win a few Scots tactical votes from Tories.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    Not 2. There is no confidence and supply thanks to the fixed term act and there was never going to be a full coalition.

    Miliband can't help it if other parties vote down Cameron.

    People won't see it that way. If Ed now governs with the unofficial support of the SNP then that will be seen as a "deal" (and with reason) and thus a very badly broken promise.

    It was a stupid statement. If he is prepared to rely on the SNP to govern then he should have just been honest - and said what you say. But he didn't. He emphatically said "no deal".

    FWIW it is possible he means exactly what he said, because he can see the terrible danger to Labour - possibly mortal danger - of governing in some informal alliance with the Nats, even if he leads a party with fewer MPs than Cameron.
    Miliband made it absolutely clear that:

    1. there will be no coalition

    2. there will be no supply and confidence

    What else is he supposed to say ? He can't order the SNP not to support a Labour Queen's speech.
    I must say I am surprised he is basically daring them to bring him down. Perhaps that bodes well for whatever arrangement ends up occurring, that he will not be the easy pushover they might have hoped for.
    Miliband has surprised virtually everyone apart from D Hodges. He was supposed to have melted during the campaign. Instead he is stronger than when he started.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    I see I have drilled into the dental nerve, judging by the response.

    Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick. Any government which relies on the Nats to survive will be seen as a "deal". Voters won't care about the careful usage of the phrase "no deal" that Miliband did or did not employ.

    Tsk. Big unforced error.

    So to be clear, what you are saying having won the election, become PM and established a govt Ed will have problems to solve. I reckon he would settle for that today.
    Ha. You have that right. Politicians really are optimists at the end of the day. Kick national problems down the line, do whatever it takes to win in the short term, as no matter how much crap they know will come raining down upon them as a result, they figure they can dodge, or at least grab an umbrella at the last minute. Somehow.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Roger said:

    Ed might turn out to be Labour's Ted Heath. The only Tory leader I ever liked. Full of human frailty but a musician a sailor and probably gay. A human being.

    Predictably he became a pariah and then came Thatch Howard IDS Hague.....and like Ratners their reputation was irrecoverable

    Have you not heard of Haute la Garenne?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    surbiton said:

    IOS said:

    John

    My point was we were out canvassing the Tories according to the Libs.

    In case you missed it - we have spoken with over 4 million voters - and we will speak to another million this week.

    Tories do not speak to people. They talk down to them.
    You may like this tweet ;-)



    Sol Campbell ✔ @SolManOfficial

    The Labour Party are the Modern day communism party! Maybe in Cuba not here! #bbcqt #justnotuptoit

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @suttonnick: Friday's Times front page:
    Miliband savaged for ‘lies’ over spending
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/8mqIg3z7MO
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited April 2015
    Goupillon said:

    After tonight I am more optimistic for another Con/LD coalition based on a referendum on the EU in 2017 in exchange for Conservative agreement to the introduction of a PR voting system for both local and national government

    I'm not sure why pro-European parties like the Libs and Lab are so afraid of an EU referendum. They would win it with ease, and put the matter to bed for decades if not indefinitely.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    John

    I am saying that Ed is going to be PM>
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 664
    Dair said:

    Desperate hatchet job by BBC Scotland on Nicola Sturgeon.

    You mean allowing a woman who had been made redundant by the Scottish NHS under Nicola's reign and then ignored when she tried to commit suicide to ask a question was unfair. Don't worry Dair maybe she is not Scottish. I am sure she is really British or even English!!

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    SeanT said:

    I see I have drilled into the dental nerve, judging by the response.

    Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick. Any government which relies on the Nats to survive will be seen as a "deal". Voters won't care about the careful usage of the phrase "no deal" that Miliband did or did not employ.

    Tsk. Big unforced error.

    I think the bigger unforced error though was his assertion that Labour did not overspend. That will have greater resonance if the Tories home in on it unrelentingly in these final days of the campaign.
    So what you are saying is that you think that Dave was both strong and (what's the word) Commanding.
    Well, I certainly would not demur with your well chosen words
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Carnyx said:

    Freggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: “@JimForScotland: Labour has called SNP bluff. The SNP must now be clear: are they willing to prevent or bring down a Labour gov"< msg shift

    Will Labour abstain a Tory speech ?!
    No
    They will vote it down and propose their own, and dare the SNP to vote against it.
    Which is the right strategy.

    And puts the SNP into difficulties - when they've won big in Scotland they're not going to want another election.

    But there IS at least one more election - in Holyrood. Whatever the SNP and for that matter Labour want.

    In 2016.

    A lot can happen in a year.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    Was there a debate on....Nobody told the Mirror...

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/593886923195883520
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    What a great audience. Million times better than the sterile debates. Miliband was given a grilling over spending by northerners. Not good for labour that.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @surbiton

    'Tories do not speak to people. They talk down to them'

    And the class warrior surfaces from beneath his stone still stuck in the 1950's.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a one-point lead: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    Not 2. There is no confidence and supply thanks to the fixed term act and there was never going to be a full coalition.

    Miliband can't help it if other parties vote down Cameron.

    People won't see it that way. If Ed now governs with the unofficial support of the SNP then that will be seen as a "deal" (and with reason) and thus a very badly broken promise.

    It was a stupid statement. If he is prepared to rely on the SNP to govern then he should have just been honest - and said what you say. But he didn't. He emphatically said "no deal".

    FWIW it is possible he means exactly what he said, because he can see the terrible danger to Labour - possibly mortal danger - of governing in some informal alliance with the Nats, even if he leads a party with fewer MPs than Cameron.
    Miliband made it absolutely clear that:

    1. there will be no coalition

    2. there will be no supply and confidence

    What else is he supposed to say ? He can't order the SNP not to support a Labour Queen's speech.
    He's now in deep shit: if Labour get fewer MPs, but he still becomes PM simply because he has SNP support.

    It's not something you can easily overlook. He will not only be using the votes of a separatist, anti-UK party to govern the UK, he will be doing so in apparent, direct contradiction of a televised promise.

    Like I said, perhaps we should give him the credit, and allow the possibility he is being sincere. Perhaps he already sees the danger for Labour, and will not seek to form a government, relying on the Nats, if he has fewer MPs and votes than Cameron.

    Labour could be backed by another left wing party but also PC and the Greens but not formally. I do not agree with your prognosis.
    In a perverse way i hope Milliband is pm, relying on SNP. Because every piece of legislation that goes through will be highlighted by the conservatives and the press as having a "scottish cost". He will have to cut, but will have to fight tooth and nail to get it through piss'ng off his backbenchers. Salmond will stich him up every chance he gets pointing out what concessions his made to Scotland on every vote, just to p,ss off the English. Immigration wont go away p.ssing off the wwc even more.

    I think EICIPM is an existential threat for the labour party.
    In fact having writen that I might vote Labour.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    BOOM

    BOOM

    BOOM
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    One dodgy poll from Mori and the Tories cream themselves.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a one-point lead: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%

    Hell Yeah....
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    EICIPM - 1% Labour lead
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    YouGov is dead......
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Now that is embarrassing. COPYANDPASTETASTIC!
    It looks quite professional to me. Most people will not have multiple mps in their feed.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Populus will be the test tomorrow. Even as stable as they usually are, surely there'll be a Tory lead or atleast a tie if there genuinely has been movement this week.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited April 2015
    KR That was what many said about the Scottish referendum, which tightened as it went on, EU polls already have it fairly tight, In 51-Out 49 is how I would call it
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983

    "Sol Campbell ✔ @SolManOfficial

    The Labour Party are the Modern day communism party! Maybe in Cuba."

    Of course Sol......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    Not 2. There is no confidence and supply thanks to the fixed term act and there was never going to be a full coalition.

    Miliband can't help it if other parties vote down Cameron.

    People won't seewith fewer MPs than Cameron.
    Milibandech.
    I must say I am surprised he is basically daring them to bring him down. Perhaps that bodes well for whatever arrangement ends up occurring, that he will not be the easy pushover they might have hoped for.
    Miliband has surprised virtually everyone apart from D Hodges. He was supposed to have melted during the campaign. Instead he is stronger than when he started.
    I'm not surprised by that - I always thought he'd be decent, he's too experienced, disciplined and professional to be otherwise - I just thought he'd leave more wiggle room. He still has some, I'm just surprised he's gone for the tougher line now, rather than, say, during negotiations.

    Goupillon said:

    After tonight I am more optimistic for another Con/LD coalition based on a referendum on the EU in 2017 in exchange for Conservative agreement to the introduction of a PR voting system for both local and national government

    I'm not sure why pro-European parties like the Libs and Lab are so afraid of an EU referendum. They would win it with ease, and put the matter to bed for decades if not indefinitely.
    Well as we all know referendums don't put things to bed for a long time in all cases, sadly. I actually think they do fear losing. They've waited too long, and even those who do worry about leaving the EU do not like it, and I think they worry about fighting a campaign purely on a dry economic argument. For all the IndyRef No campaign boiled down to too much of that, there were people who were passionate and being emotional in their case, but the numbers doing that in an EU referendum would be very low indeed.

    I actually think people would vote Out. No one likes the EU much, the EU leaders are openly contemptuous of British concerns outside occasional and not characteristic mealy mouthed statements, and I think people would not fight hard enough to stay in vs a much more motivated Out vote.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sun Politics ✔ @SunPolitics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a one-point lead: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Gotta love the PB Tories.

    They just want it so bad. Another day down - another day closer to Ed as PM.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    IOS said:

    One dodgy poll from Mori and the Tories cream themselves.

    Says the spin-infant with Boo, boom, boom.

    Still you're nicer than Surbiton, I'll grant you that.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Desperate hatchet job by BBC Scotland on Nicola Sturgeon.

    You mean allowing a woman who had been made redundant by the Scottish NHS under Nicola's reign and then ignored when she tried to commit suicide to ask a question was unfair. Don't worry Dair maybe she is not Scottish. I am sure she is really British or even English!!
    So you don't support replacing managers in the NHS with clinical staff?

    Even the woman herself was embarrassed to say her former job title (it was something like Educational Outreach Project Manager)
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 664
    Did anyone notice that Nicola claimed she would both cut the deficit and the debt and austerity at the same time! No shortage of ambition there. I don't think finance is her best subject. But then because I dare to question our dear leader I guess I am not Scottish either according to Dair.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Nothing will shake the YouGov. One of the sides setting off a nuke would only shift it maybe 3 points.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    SeanT said:

    I see I have drilled into the dental nerve, judging by the response.

    Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick. Any government which relies on the Nats to survive will be seen as a "deal". Voters won't care about the careful usage of the phrase "no deal" that Miliband did or did not employ.

    Tsk. Big unforced error.

    I think the bigger unforced error though was his assertion that Labour did not overspend. That will have greater resonance if the Tories home in on it unrelentingly in these final days of the campaign.
    So what you are saying is that you think that Dave was both strong and (what's the word) Commanding.
    Well, I certainly would not demur with your well chosen words
    I thought Cameron was prime ministerial. But as I have said before I find it extremely uncomfortable when he talks publicly about his dead son and aligning this to his record on the NHS. He lied about no top down reorganisation, he lied about his choice of football team.

    If you are a sometimes liar, and used to lying in politics, it just seems very unsavoury to bring up something as personal as a dead child to make a political point.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited April 2015
    Stratton going on Overspend-gate.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    IOS said:

    BOOM

    BOOM

    BOOM

    WTF - over labour one point lead.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Danny565 said:

    Populus will be the test tomorrow. Even as stable as they usually are, surely there'll be a Tory lead or atleast a tie if there genuinely has been movement this week.

    Yes, I was thinking that too.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Roger said:


    "Sol Campbell ✔ @SolManOfficial

    The Labour Party are the Modern day communism party! Maybe in Cuba."

    Of course Sol......

    Judas spouts nonsense shock.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Tabman said:

    Roger said:

    Ed might turn out to be Labour's Ted Heath. The only Tory leader I ever liked. Full of human frailty but a musician a sailor and probably gay. A human being.

    Predictably he became a pariah and then came Thatch Howard IDS Hague.....and like Ratners their reputation was irrecoverable

    Have you not heard of Haute la Garenne?
    He's a luvvie, of course he has heard of it.

    I suspect that he admires Roman Polanski.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    Dair said:

    Norm said:

    JackW said:

    Initial thoughts on the ICM poll is that Tories will be disappointed to not have a wider edge over Labour and the LibDems pleased with a score double their poll rating.

    One of the reasons for that I suggest is that Ed came back a bit in the second half and nudged peoples fears over tax credits. Gordo's biggest legacy in some ways was the generous tax credit system which gave so many people a vested interest in the state and its handouts.
    Tax Credits...I wish a politician would have the balls to stand up and say, yes we will cut them...rather than us taxing you, you filling in a load of forms and then us giving some of it back to you...tell you what, we will let you keep it in the first place.
    Neither the Tories or Labour will properly address Tax Credits.

    Labour introduced them to create benefit dependency in the middle class and the Tories rely on those middle class voters and won't risk losing them with swingeing but necessary cuts to the ridiculousness of welfare benefits being paid to people on £50k pa.
    The history behind tax credits is something which is rarely talked about....and not just as you say how it has become a benefit dependency (I heard Ed Miliband straight away today saying it will wreck your family finances...where as fiddling with the tax thresholds can have the same effect positive and negative).

    The whole reason why it is tax credit rather than a benefit has little to do with helping the poorest, it was (as so much of Gordon Brown's policies) all about the politics i.e not breaking golden rules, not interesting benefits spending etc.
    Of course they aren't tax credits at all in reality.

    Someone with 2 kids earning £10k gross pays no tax but receives £8k of tax credits (+ just under £2k child benefit).

    Tax credits are really just the old supplementary benefit - though much more generous.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Did anyone notice that Nicola claimed she would both cut the deficit and the debt and austerity at the same time! No shortage of ambition there. I don't think finance is her best subject. But then because I dare to question our dear leader I guess I am not Scottish either according to Dair.

    Nicola has cut austerity. Have you any idea how much helicopters cost?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Tyke

    Nah - over being less than a week away and the Tories still not being able to get ahead.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    kle4 said:

    Nothing will shake the YouGov. One of the sides setting off a nuke would only shift it maybe 3 points.



    A nuke would be barely worth two, I think it need the four horsemen before you get to a three.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    IOS said:

    BOOM

    BOOM

    BOOM

    WTF - over labour one point lead.

    The lack of a Tory leading trend is all Labour need, if YouGov are proven right.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    IOS said:

    BOOM

    BOOM

    BOOM

    WTF - over labour one point lead.

    Swimngback :-)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sad story of the night.

    MissLeahMarie ‏@LittleMissUKIP 4h4 hours ago
    The BBC are disgusting. Decided to tell everyone WHEN WE GOT THERE that only some of us are allowed in for "balance" reasons. BBC bastards.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    Not 2. There is no confidence and supply thanks to the fixed term act and there was never going to be a full coalition.

    Miliband can't help it if other parties vote down Cameron.

    People won't seewith fewer MPs than Cameron.
    Milibandech.
    I must say I am surprised he is basically daring them to bring him down. Perhaps that bodes well for whatever arrangement ends up occurring, that he will not be the easy pushover they might have hoped for.
    Miliband has surprised virtually everyone apart from D Hodges. He was supposed to have melted during the campaign. Instead he is stronger than when he started.
    I'm not surprised by that - I always thought he'd be decent, he's too experienced, disciplined and professional to be otherwise - I just thought he'd leave more wiggle room. He still has some, I'm just surprised he's gone for the tougher line now, rather than, say, during negotiations.

    Goupillon said:

    After tonight I am more optimistic for another Con/LD coalition based on a referendum on the EU in 2017 in exchange for Conservative agreement to the introduction of a PR voting system for both local and national government

    I'm not sure why pro-European parties like the Libs and Lab are so afraid of an EU referendum. They would win it with ease, and put the matter to bed for decades if not indefinitely.
    Well as we all know referendums don't put things to bed for a long time in all cases, sadly. I actually think they do fear losing. They've waited too long, and even those who do worry about leaving the EU do not like it, and I think they worry about fighting a campaign purely on a dry economic argument. For all the IndyRef No campaign boiled down to too much of that, there were people who were passionate and being emotional in their case, but the numbers doing that in an EU referendum would be very low indeed.

    I actually think people would vote Out. No one likes the EU much, the EU leaders are openly contemptuous of British concerns outside occasional and not characteristic mealy mouthed statements, and I think people would not fight hard enough to stay in vs a much more motivated Out vote.
    People will vote for IN, but it will mean 2 years of destabilising nonsense in the meantime.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    SeanT said:

    I see I have drilled into the dental nerve, judging by the response.

    Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick. Any government which relies on the Nats to survive will be seen as a "deal". Voters won't care about the careful usage of the phrase "no deal" that Miliband did or did not employ.

    Tsk. Big unforced error.

    I think the bigger unforced error though was his assertion that Labour did not overspend. That will have greater resonance if the Tories home in on it unrelentingly in these final days of the campaign.
    So what you are saying is that you think that Dave was both strong and (what's the word) Commanding.
    Well, I certainly would not demur with your well chosen words
    I thought Cameron was prime ministerial. But as I have said before I find it extremely uncomfortable when he talks publicly about his dead son and aligning this to his record on the NHS. He lied about no top down reorganisation, he lied about his choice of football team.

    If you are a sometimes liar, and used to lying in politics, it just seems very unsavoury to bring up something as personal as a dead child to make a political point.
    Spare us the pomposity. You were once quite enchanting: rejoining Labour has done you no favours.
  • IOS said:

    Gotta love the PB Tories.

    They just want it so bad. Another day down - another day closer to Ed as PM.

    In your heart of hearts do you really think that is a good idea?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    Not 2. There is no confidence and supply thanks to the fixed term act and there was never going to be a full coalition.

    Miliband can't help it if other parties vote down Cameron.

    People won't see it that way. If Ed now governs with the unofficial support of the SNP then that will be seen as a "deal" (and with reason) and thus a very badly broken promise.

    It was a stupid statement. If he is prepared to rely on the SNP to govern then he should have just been honest - and said what you say. But he didn't. He emphatically said "no deal".

    FWIW it is possible he means exactly what he said, because he can see the terrible danger to Labour - possibly mortal danger - of governing in some informal alliance with the Nats, even if he leads a party with fewer MPs than Cameron.
    Miliband made it absolutely clear that:

    1. there will be no coalition

    2. there will be no supply and confidence

    What else is he supposed to say ? He can't order the SNP not to support a Labour Queen's speech.
    He's now in deep shit: if Labour get fewer MPs, but he still becomes PM simply because he has SNP support.

    It's not something you can easily overlook. He will not only be using the votes of a separatist, anti-UK party to govern the UK, he will be doing so in apparent, direct contradiction of a televised promise.

    Like I said, perhaps we should give him the credit, and allow the possibility he is being sincere. Perhaps he already sees the danger for Labour, and will not seek to form a government, relying on the Nats, if he has fewer MPs and votes than Cameron.

    I'm not sure that many people will care as long as EdM doesn't increase their taxes or cut their services.

    And he wont do either.

    Then after showing that the world hasn't ended, brought in a few populist measures and had a trip to meet Obama EdM goes for another election.

    That's the plan I suspect.

    If it doesn't work out then EdM still gets his name in the history books and his picture on the Downing Street wall. Not to mention all the future earning possibilities.

    And Labour will blame the SNP or the LibDems or the 'banks' for brining down their government.


    One problem, Obama won't play ball.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Danny565 said:

    Populus will be the test tomorrow. Even as stable as they usually are, surely there'll be a Tory lead or atleast a tie if there genuinely has been movement this week.

    Don't hold your breath. They've not given tories a lead for 8 months.

    YG static & dead as a floorboard. Can we all agree to bin YG? Regardless of opinions no polling 7 days a week should have this little movement. Somethings badly wrong there.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Did anyone notice that Nicola claimed she would both cut the deficit and the debt and austerity at the same time! No shortage of ambition there. I don't think finance is her best subject. But then because I dare to question our dear leader I guess I am not Scottish either according to Dair.

    Because its based on etymological illiteracy by the IFS.

    They call reducing the deficit "Austerity" which is bullshit. Reducing SPENDING in real terms is Austerity and the SNP propose to end that immediately. The cost, which is not challenged is that the deficit elinination takes two to three years longer.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Compouter

    If it weren't for the SNP it would be what Lab 38 Con 34

    No Dave as PM on those scores and given the SNP aint supporting a Tory queens speech
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights YG EICIPM
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    SeanT said:

    Can we now - at least - agree that the Debates, in some form, are a permanent part of our political furniture, and that, by accident, we may have stumbled over the best format of all?

    What we just saw was by a distance the best 90 minutes of political questioning in this election. All 3 leaders looked uncomfortable, at times, all got a proper interrogation by ordinary people.

    The BBC did an excellent job. The only flaw was the absence of Farage. He would have livened it up no end after the non-event of Clegg.

    I hope they are now a permanent fixture. But the format needs to be settled and inclusive.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    YouGov produced the most accurate poll of the 2010 campaign, with their "shock" poll putting the Lib Dems on just 24% a couple of days before the election (with Tories and Labour also virtually bang on with 37% and 30%).

    Just saying...
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited April 2015
    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    SeanT said:

    I see I have drilled into the dental nerve, judging by the response.

    Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick. Any government which relies on the Nats to survive will be seen as a "deal". Voters won't care about the careful usage of the phrase "no deal" that Miliband did or did not employ.

    Tsk. Big unforced error.

    I think the bigger unforced error though was his assertion that Labour did not overspend. That will have greater resonance if the Tories home in on it unrelentingly in these final days of the campaign.
    So what you are saying is that you think that Dave was both strong and (what's the word) Commanding.
    Well, I certainly would not demur with your well chosen words
    I thought Cameron was prime ministerial. But as I have said before I find it extremely uncomfortable when he talks publicly about his dead son and aligning this to his record on the NHS. He lied about no top down reorganisation, he lied about his choice of football team.

    If you are a sometimes liar, and used to lying in politics, it just seems very unsavoury to bring up something as personal as a dead child to make a political point.
    to be fair how do we judge the nhs except by experience of how it treats us & our loved ones? If you ask people about the nhs they don't talk in vague terms about stats and reorganisation, they talk about their experiences of what its been like for them when it mattered. So give him a break.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited April 2015
    IOS said:

    Tyke

    Nah - over being less than a week away and the Tories still not being able to get ahead.

    Absolutely true..

    ..apart from Ipsos MORI, Survation, ICM, Opinium, TNS, Ashcroft

    You're going to lose, and I think you know it.
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    That was quite a good debate and the format seemed to work better than the others. Each leader had hard questions to answer and some did better than others at that. I'm not sure that Ed's should have been quite so critical of the SNP because the maths, at this time, suggests he might need their support. As a Lib Dem I still suffer nightmares from the tuition fees debacle and I sort of hope what I heard Ed say this evening becomes his 'tuition fees' moment in five years(?) time. I can't fault Nick tonight on the way he answered the questions, he did a good job but I appreciate the wind is not blowing in our direction this time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015
    SeanT said:

    Can we now - at least - agree that the Debates, in some form, are a permanent part of our political furniture, and that, by accident, we may have stumbled over the best format of all?

    What we just saw was by a distance the best 90 minutes of political questioning in this election. All 3 leaders looked uncomfortable, at times, all got a proper interrogation by ordinary people.

    The BBC did an excellent job. The only flaw was the absence of Farage. He would have livened it up no end after the non-event of Clegg.

    I thought it the best of the lot (and actually thought Clegg's segment was decent enough, more fun than Cameron's blander segment - not that Clegg will get any benefit either way). Ditch the opposition debate idea, and instead increase the numbers in this format, I'm fine with that.

    Leaders should be doing Paxman/Davis stuff more often anyway, shouldn't take an election to do it.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Danny565 said:

    Populus will be the test tomorrow. Even as stable as they usually are, surely there'll be a Tory lead or atleast a tie if there genuinely has been movement this week.

    Don't hold your breath. They've not given tories a lead for 8 months.

    YG static & dead as a floorboard. Can we all agree to bin YG? Regardless of opinions no polling 7 days a week should have this little movement. Somethings badly wrong there.

    So the only valid polls are those which have numbers you like. Pathetic.

    YouGov was top pollsters at the May 2014 Euros

    Panelbase was joint top pollster at the IndyRef

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    John

    I look forward to this time next week when you are dismissing the exit poll.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    YouGov was also the only pollster who predicted the 2012 mayoral election to be as close as it was.

    *clutches onto straws for dear life*
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tyson

    ' it just seems very unsavoury to bring up something as personal as a dead child to make a political point.'

    You were perfectly happy to try & impress us the other night that you had somehow been involved with the treatment of his son,sorting the hospital admission forms or whatever.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    SeanT said:

    Can we now - at least - agree that the Debates, in some form, are a permanent part of our political furniture, and that, by accident, we may have stumbled over the best format of all?

    What we just saw was by a distance the best 90 minutes of political questioning in this election. All 3 leaders looked uncomfortable, at times, all got a proper interrogation by ordinary people.

    The BBC did an excellent job. The only flaw was the absence of Farage. He would have livened it up no end after the non-event of Clegg.

    Said it several times...we should have leaders, chancellor (and their shadows), etc each do QT once a year.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    JohnO said:

    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    SeanT said:

    I see I have drilled into the dental nerve, judging by the response.

    Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick. Any government which relies on the Nats to survive will be seen as a "deal". Voters won't care about the careful usage of the phrase "no deal" that Miliband did or did not employ.

    Tsk. Big unforced error.

    I think the bigger unforced error though was his assertion that Labour did not overspend. That will have greater resonance if the Tories home in on it unrelentingly in these final days of the campaign.
    So what you are saying is that you think that Dave was both strong and (what's the word) Commanding.
    Well, I certainly would not demur with your well chosen words
    I thought Cameron was prime ministerial. But as I have said before I find it extremely uncomfortable when he talks publicly about his dead son and aligning this to his record on the NHS. He lied about no top down reorganisation, he lied about his choice of football team.

    If you are a sometimes liar, and used to lying in politics, it just seems very unsavoury to bring up something as personal as a dead child to make a political point.
    Spare us the pomposity. You were once quite enchanting: rejoining Labour has done you no favours.
    Some might say the same of you remaining with the blue team.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Poll at the last general election understated Labour.

    And the massively overstated Boris.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    JohnO said:

    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    SeanT said:

    I see I have drilled into the dental nerve, judging by the response.

    Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick. Any government which relies on the Nats to survive will be seen as a "deal". Voters won't care about the careful usage of the phrase "no deal" that Miliband did or did not employ.

    Tsk. Big unforced error.

    I think the bigger unforced error though was his assertion that Labour did not overspend. That will have greater resonance if the Tories home in on it unrelentingly in these final days of the campaign.
    So what you are saying is that you think that Dave was both strong and (what's the word) Commanding.
    Well, I certainly would not demur with your well chosen words
    I thought Cameron was prime ministerial. But as I have said before I find it extremely uncomfortable when he talks publicly about his dead son and aligning this to his record on the NHS. He lied about no top down reorganisation, he lied about his choice of football team.

    If you are a sometimes liar, and used to lying in politics, it just seems very unsavoury to bring up something as personal as a dead child to make a political point.
    Spare us the pomposity. You were once quite enchanting: rejoining Labour has done you no favours.
    I think John you and many others are as uncomfortable as me when Cameron brings up his child in this way. It is just not the done thing because it leaves room to think he might be opportunistic, even if he's not.



  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    JohnO said:

    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    SeanT said:

    I see I have drilled into the dental nerve, judging by the response.

    Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick. Any government which relies on the Nats to survive will be seen as a "deal". Voters won't care about the careful usage of the phrase "no deal" that Miliband did or did not employ.

    Tsk. Big unforced error.

    I think the bigger unforced error though was his assertion that Labour did not overspend. That will have greater resonance if the Tories home in on it unrelentingly in these final days of the campaign.
    So what you are saying is that you think that Dave was both strong and (what's the word) Commanding.
    Well, I certainly would not demur with your well chosen words
    I thought Cameron was prime ministerial. But as I have said before I find it extremely uncomfortable when he talks publicly about his dead son and aligning this to his record on the NHS. He lied about no top down reorganisation, he lied about his choice of football team.

    If you are a sometimes liar, and used to lying in politics, it just seems very unsavoury to bring up something as personal as a dead child to make a political point.
    Spare us the pomposity. You were once quite enchanting: rejoining Labour has done you no favours.
    I wonder how many People in Iraq would agree with this.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Danny565 said:

    Populus will be the test tomorrow. Even as stable as they usually are, surely there'll be a Tory lead or atleast a tie if there genuinely has been movement this week.

    Don't hold your breath. They've not given tories a lead for 8 months.

    YG static & dead as a floorboard. Can we all agree to bin YG? Regardless of opinions no polling 7 days a week should have this little movement. Somethings badly wrong there.

    So the only valid polls are those which have numbers you like. Pathetic.

    YouGov was top pollsters at the May 2014 Euros

    Panelbase was joint top pollster at the IndyRef

    Now,now OGH don't come on here and start throwing facts around like confetti, you will upset the PB Hodges. :-)
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited April 2015
    IOS said:

    John

    I look forward to this time next week when you are dismissing the exit poll.

    No, that is something I won't be doing. If that says Ed is crap is PM, then so shall it be.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Danny565 said:

    Populus will be the test tomorrow. Even as stable as they usually are, surely there'll be a Tory lead or atleast a tie if there genuinely has been movement this week.

    YG static & dead as a floorboard. Can we all agree to bin YG? Regardless of opinions no polling 7 days a week should have this little movement. Somethings badly wrong there.
    Well, we feel like there should have been more movement, but if they end up calling the election better than anyone else, it will have been our expectations that were wrong, not them. I don't think anyone should be certain YouGov must be wrong.
    MikeK said:

    Sad story of the night.

    MissLeahMarie ‏@LittleMissUKIP 4h4 hours ago
    The BBC are disgusting. Decided to tell everyone WHEN WE GOT THERE that only some of us are allowed in for "balance" reasons. BBC bastards.

    I don't see how that is particularly sad. A little inconvenient, but parties and their supporters whinge incessantly about balance, surely worth an individual's inconvenience.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    Danny565 said:

    Populus will be the test tomorrow. Even as stable as they usually are, surely there'll be a Tory lead or atleast a tie if there genuinely has been movement this week.

    Don't hold your breath. They've not given tories a lead for 8 months.

    YG static & dead as a floorboard. Can we all agree to bin YG? Regardless of opinions no polling 7 days a week should have this little movement. Somethings badly wrong there.

    So the only valid polls are those which have numbers you like. Pathetic.

    YouGov was top pollsters at the May 2014 Euros

    Panelbase was joint top pollster at the IndyRef

    Out of interest Mike what are you expecting the result to be if I may ask ...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Danny565 said:

    YouGov was also the only pollster who predicted the 2012 mayoral election to be as close as it was.

    *clutches onto straws for dear life*

    Not correct. Top pollster at 2012 London mayoral election was Opinium. YouGov 2nd.

    The worst poll by a long distance at Boris's last election was the only phone survey.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    IOS If it wasn't for UKIP the Tories would be well over 40%, if Cameron squeezes that vote he will certainly lead the largest party, his EU referendum pledge tonight and Miliband's dismissal of it will help, Netanyahu squeezed rightwing parties votes in Israel to move ahead in the final days without winning any over from the Israeli Labour Party, Cameron could do the same
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Can we now - at least - agree that the Debates, in some form, are a permanent part of our political furniture, and that, by accident, we may have stumbled over the best format of all?

    We can certainly agree that Cameron won out as a result of the formats. As predicted.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Danny565 said:

    Populus will be the test tomorrow. Even as stable as they usually are, surely there'll be a Tory lead or atleast a tie if there genuinely has been movement this week.

    Don't hold your breath. They've not given tories a lead for 8 months.

    YG static & dead as a floorboard. Can we all agree to bin YG? Regardless of opinions no polling 7 days a week should have this little movement. Somethings badly wrong there.

    So the only valid polls are those which have numbers you like. Pathetic.

    YouGov was top pollsters at the May 2014 Euros

    Panelbase was joint top pollster at the IndyRef

    Mike - the only valid poll is the one in a week's tine which shows CON on 310+!

    CON on its way to making net gains in England next week
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    Tyke

    Nah - over being less than a week away and the Tories still not being able to get ahead.

    Absolutely true..

    ..apart from Ipsos MORI, Survation, ICM, Opinium, TNS, Ashcroft

    You're going to lose, and I think you know it.
    Define lose
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Who's up, who's down - 7 days out and we still don't know who will 'win', and what a 'win' will look like. Exciting.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Anyway - how many people have voted already - at least 15% of the people that are going to vote I reckon.

    Not sure there are many people to shift in the center - just about getting out your core.

    Step forward the ground game.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    IOS If it wasn't for UKIP the Tories would be well over 40%, if Cameron squeezes that vote he will certainly lead the largest party, his EU referendum pledge tonight and Miliband's dismissal of it will help, Netanyahu squeezed rightwing parties votes in Israel to move ahead in the final days without winning any over from the Israeli Labour Party, Cameron could do the same

    Unlike the Israeli election where everything is decided on national vote shares same doesn't apply here. This is about 650 separate contest under FPTP.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm not, I believe he's entirely sincere.
    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    SeanT said:

    I see I have drilled into the dental nerve, judging by the response.

    Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick. Any government which relies on the Nats to survive will be seen as a "deal". Voters won't care about the careful usage of the phrase "no deal" that Miliband did or did not employ.

    Tsk. Big unforced error.

    I think the bigger unforced error though was his assertion that Labour did not overspend. That will have greater resonance if the Tories home in on it unrelentingly in these final days of the campaign.
    So what you are saying is that you think that Dave was both strong and (what's the word) Commanding.
    Well, I certainly would not demur with your well chosen words
    I thought Cameron was prime ministerial. But as I have said before I find it extremely uncomfortable when he talks publicly about his dead son and aligning this to his record on the NHS. He lied about no top down reorganisation, he lied about his choice of football team.

    If you are a sometimes liar, and used to lying in politics, it just seems very unsavoury to bring up something as personal as a dead child to make a political point.
    Spare us the pomposity. You were once quite enchanting: rejoining Labour has done you no favours.
    I think John you and many others are as uncomfortable as me when Cameron brings up his child in this way. It is just not the done thing because it leaves room to think he might be opportunistic, even if he's not.



  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    JohnO said:

    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    SeanT said:

    I see I have drilled into the dental nerve, judging by the response.

    Miliband f*cked up with his No SNP Deal shtick. Any government which relies on the Nats to survive will be seen as a "deal". Voters won't care about the careful usage of the phrase "no deal" that Miliband did or did not employ.

    Tsk. Big unforced error.

    I think the bigger unforced error though was his assertion that Labour did not overspend. That will have greater resonance if the Tories home in on it unrelentingly in these final days of the campaign.
    So what you are saying is that you think that Dave was both strong and (what's the word) Commanding.
    Well, I certainly would not demur with your well chosen words
    I thought Cameron was prime ministerial. But as I have said before I find it extremely uncomfortable when he talks publicly about his dead son and aligning this to his record on the NHS. He lied about no top down reorganisation, he lied about his choice of football team.

    If you are a sometimes liar, and used to lying in politics, it just seems very unsavoury to bring up something as personal as a dead child to make a political point.
    Spare us the pomposity. You were once quite enchanting: rejoining Labour has done you no favours.
    Some might say the same of you remaining with the blue team.

    Says a Labour voter. LoL.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    HYUFD

    If it wasn't for the SNP yada yada yada

    We are where we are and its going to be Ed is a most likely scrappy way.

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Labour down 2, Tories up 1 in the Newsnight index.

    Farage on BBC1 in 5 minutes.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Danny565 said:

    YouGov was also the only pollster who predicted the 2012 mayoral election to be as close as it was.

    *clutches onto straws for dear life*

    Not correct. Top pollster at 2012 London mayoral election was Opinium. YouGov 2nd.

    The worst poll by a long distance at Boris's last election was the only phone survey.

    What relevance does London have? It isn't anything like the rest of the UK.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The well respected lib dem -


    Stephen Tall @stephentall

    Watching the #bbcqt coverage, I'm starting to get a 1992 feeling about this election. (Tho no Tory maj this time.)

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Ooh Polly on Newsnight. Cue outrage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    HYUFD said:

    IOS If it wasn't for UKIP the Tories would be well over 40%, if Cameron squeezes that vote he will certainly lead the largest party, his EU referendum pledge tonight and Miliband's dismissal of it will help, Netanyahu squeezed rightwing parties votes in Israel to move ahead in the final days without winning any over from the Israeli Labour Party, Cameron could do the same

    Unlike the Israeli election where everything is decided on national vote shares same doesn't apply here. This is about 650 separate contest under FPTP.

    I hope the pollsters are better than the Israeli Election for anyone with an unbalanced book.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    JohnO said:

    IOS said:

    Tyke

    Nah - over being less than a week away and the Tories still not being able to get ahead.

    Absolutely true..

    ..apart from Ipsos MORI, Survation, ICM, Opinium, TNS, Ashcroft

    You're going to lose, and I think you know it.
    Define lose
    Cameron remains PM
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Monty said:

    Let's hope this the last FPTP election. No longer fit for purpose.

    If you don't like the result then fiddle the system, eh?
This discussion has been closed.