Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And before the big Question Time event here’s Marf

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And before the big Question Time event here’s Marf

LAB at 2% lead with Panelbase. LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC)

Read the full story here


«13456710

Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    First!
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Like Chelsea!
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    I noted earlier that the Green 8% caused some discussion about Norwich South. I have no local information, but got on for a few quid before the "Green Surge" at 25-1 which felt like a good price given it's notionally a billion-way marginal.

    Anyway I'm in the market to sell, as while I think 25-1 was value, I don't think it's particularly likely. I'm curious what people who are bullish on the Greens generally would call a fair price.

    I'm offering 6.6 at Betfair. I could go a bit higher if anyone's game given the lack of liquidity, but Labour matched at 1.25 suggests someone else is in with a shout, and I can't really see who that is if it isn't the Greens. Surely no way it's a LD hold?!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Now on to the most boring part of the GE campaign, the QT event.

    I'm not going to bother watching it.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    I see SI has Ukip at 3.2 - 4.2. Must be a lot of Ukippers in the (virtual) bookies.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited April 2015
    The cartoon made me laugh, but I'm not sure why. Maybe because it takes the pee out of all the sweaty self-centred political gob spray that's flying around, doubtless some of it mine.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Dadge said:

    I see SI has Ukip at 3.2 - 4.2. Must be a lot of Ukippers in the (virtual) bookies.

    Well since the Tories have given up on Thurrock based on the Transport Secretary's plan, that means 2 certain UKIP seats plus any of Thanet.S, Rochester, Boston and Castle Point.

    If UKIP's chances are 33% in each seat then UKIP getting 3 seats is the most probable outcome, if it's 50% then it's 4 seats, also there is a small chance that UKIP might produce a surprise in a seat that LordA hasn't polled.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Outlier from MORI.

    Almost all polls show good retention of 2010 Lab voters.

    If you voted for them in 2010,you are likely to vote for them now unless you are in Scotland.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Dadge said:

    I see SI has Ukip at 3.2 - 4.2. Must be a lot of Ukippers in the (virtual) bookies.

    It is a huge spread, 1 pt at that level.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SMukesh said:

    Outlier from MORI.

    Almost all polls show good retention of 2010 Lab voters.

    If you voted for them in 2010,you are likely to vote for them now unless you are in Scotland.

    So Red Kippers don't exist? And the Greens aren't relevant. Right.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    SMukesh said:

    Outlier from MORI.

    Almost all polls show good retention of 2010 Lab voters.

    If you voted for them in 2010,you are likely to vote for them now unless you are in Scotland.

    That is one assumption of several possible
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    SMukesh said:

    Outlier from MORI.

    Almost all polls show good retention of 2010 Lab voters.

    If you voted for them in 2010,you are likely to vote for them now unless you are in Scotland.

    You are in for a shock.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Charles said:

    SMukesh said:

    Outlier from MORI.

    Almost all polls show good retention of 2010 Lab voters.

    If you voted for them in 2010,you are likely to vote for them now unless you are in Scotland.

    So Red Kippers don't exist? And the Greens aren't relevant. Right.
    Check previous polls.Generally the retention is 80-90%.It used to be higher before the Independence campaign.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Charles

    Since our quick chat about the Garden Bridge I haven't been on at the same time as you. I can't get to London that evening so will have to pass on the kind offer, even if it would have cost a donation!

    Thanks for thinking of me.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    On SLAB Membership from previous forum

    Paul Hutcheon @paulhutcheon 26 Apr 2015
    Jim Murphy told the Sunday Times today there are around 15,000 members of @scottishlabour – he said 19,000 a few months back

    Reporting Scotland, 30 Apr 2015:

    Jim Murphy: “The Scottish Labour Party figures are about 20,000 and growing.”

    Sally Magnusson: “7,000 of these are social club members, of course.”

    Jim: *says stuff about how proud all these imaginary Labour members are*

    Sally: “I take it from that that you’re not at a 15-year high.”

    Jim: “We are actually. Over 20,000.”
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SMukesh said:

    Charles said:

    SMukesh said:

    Outlier from MORI.

    Almost all polls show good retention of 2010 Lab voters.

    If you voted for them in 2010,you are likely to vote for them now unless you are in Scotland.

    So Red Kippers don't exist? And the Greens aren't relevant. Right.
    Check previous polls.Generally the retention is 80-90%.It used to be higher before the Independence campaign.
    Sure. But you stated, with such confidence, something so complacent that you needed pulling up for your own good. Mebbe it's an outlier. Mebbe it's not.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    is there any betting on the question time event like for the earlier debates?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    SMukesh said:

    Outlier from MORI.

    Almost all polls show good retention of 2010 Lab voters.

    If you voted for them in 2010,you are likely to vote for them now unless you are in Scotland.

    c.20% of Labour voters from 2010 in Kent, Essex, South Yorkshire, are likely to go to UKIP.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282

    SMukesh said:

    Outlier from MORI.

    Almost all polls show good retention of 2010 Lab voters.

    If you voted for them in 2010,you are likely to vote for them now unless you are in Scotland.

    You are in for a shock.
    Is Mori an outlier or is the 5% Con lead the shape of things to come in the last week?if so the Tories are nearly there-316 seats on UNS.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362


    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB ·
    Given that both Daves', Cameron and Dimbleby are Bullingdon Club members should one or both declare an interest?

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I think SMukesh makes a decent assessment of the MORI poll tbh. There just way too many variables about that sample which seem 'off'. I don't see where else Labour are going to significantly lose support other that Scotland, and it's been pretty well documented the UKIP effect on Labour is generally limited. The Green figure is something that I pretty much doubt will come to fruition - does anyone really think the Greens, who have generally struggled in the polls this campaign will suddenly poll 8%? I think some of that sample may well move to Labour. I also think the 63% figure is highly unusual, and that you can't really take much from it until we see other firms show the same. Likewise with the Tories leading in London, which is something I wouldn't bet on at all - generally polling has shown Labour to be doing pretty well in London.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    SMukesh said:

    Charles said:

    SMukesh said:

    Outlier from MORI.

    Almost all polls show good retention of 2010 Lab voters.

    If you voted for them in 2010,you are likely to vote for them now unless you are in Scotland.

    So Red Kippers don't exist? And the Greens aren't relevant. Right.
    Check previous polls.Generally the retention is 80-90%.It used to be higher before the Independence campaign.
    So these things change over time, do they? So perhaps MORI has identified a change?

    Instead of nit-picking just rejoice, and congratulate our pollsters.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Aren't we due Survation (Mirror) tonight?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    I also hear before 2010 weighting,Lab was up 3 in COMRES nationwide rather than tied with the Tories.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    philiph said:

    Charles

    Since our quick chat about the Garden Bridge I haven't been on at the same time as you. I can't get to London that evening so will have to pass on the kind offer, even if it would have cost a donation!

    Thanks for thinking of me.

    No problem!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    My FIL was a leading member of his local Conservative Club in Heworth, Gateshead. He paid his dues and played snooker every night. And he voted Labour as did everyone else.

    He was also the local branch sec for his union. The Conservative Club had the best facilities and within walking distance of his house. Social clubs are no yardstick for anything.

    On SLAB Membership from previous forum

    Paul Hutcheon @paulhutcheon 26 Apr 2015
    Jim Murphy told the Sunday Times today there are around 15,000 members of @scottishlabour – he said 19,000 a few months back

    Reporting Scotland, 30 Apr 2015:

    Jim Murphy: “The Scottish Labour Party figures are about 20,000 and growing.”

    Sally Magnusson: “7,000 of these are social club members, of course.”

    Jim: *says stuff about how proud all these imaginary Labour members are*

    Sally: “I take it from that that you’re not at a 15-year high.”

    Jim: “We are actually. Over 20,000.”

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2015
    Good evening all. And to those PBers that wished me happy birthday today, a big thanks and a hug, although JackW might not appreciate it. (the hug I mean) ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    FPT Tyson

    "Watching C4 news on immigration, you cannot help but feel that there is a large slice of poor, alienated whites that are angry, and for good reason."

    Read what happened to them during the Lady Porter/Mrs Thatcher era. They were shipped out of Westminster wholesale to secure a Tory majority. Ask anyone living in Westminster as I was what was going on. From Old Compton St to the Savoy every shop doorway had someone living in a cardboard box.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/sleaze-scandal-strips-dame-shirley-porter-of-her-title-94961.html

    PS I did think the expose on Cameron senior was below the belt
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    Charles said:

    philiph said:

    Charles

    Since our quick chat about the Garden Bridge I haven't been on at the same time as you. I can't get to London that evening so will have to pass on the kind offer, even if it would have cost a donation!

    Thanks for thinking of me.

    No problem!
    Can I attend to give a contrary voice? ;-)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Coming to a TV near you in a few minutes .... multiple gasms, but will it be a :

    Camgasm or Miligasm or a Cleggasm
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeK said:

    Good evening all. And to those PBers that wished me happy birthday today, a big thanks and a hug, although JackW might not appreciate it. (the hug I mean) ;)

    Oh Happy Birthday!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The Farage QT was pre recorded so he wont be discussing the other debate.. bit odd that?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited April 2015
    Child Benefit is the first question...lol!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeK said:

    Good evening all. And to those PBers that wished me happy birthday today, a big thanks and a hug, although JackW might not appreciate it. (the hug I mean) ;)

    You and other PBers may hug me or my ARSE

    I'm that sort of chap ....

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Dave looks up for this tonight.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    Plato said:

    My FIL was a leading member of his local Conservative Club in Heworth, Gateshead. He paid his dues and played snooker every night. And he voted Labour as did everyone else.

    He was also the local branch sec for his union. The Conservative Club had the best facilities and within walking distance of his house. Social clubs are no yardstick for anything.

    On SLAB Membership from previous forum

    Paul Hutcheon @paulhutcheon 26 Apr 2015
    Jim Murphy told the Sunday Times today there are around 15,000 members of @scottishlabour – he said 19,000 a few months back

    Reporting Scotland, 30 Apr 2015:

    Jim Murphy: “The Scottish Labour Party figures are about 20,000 and growing.”

    Sally Magnusson: “7,000 of these are social club members, of course.”

    Jim: *says stuff about how proud all these imaginary Labour members are*

    Sally: “I take it from that that you’re not at a 15-year high.”

    Jim: “We are actually. Over 20,000.”

    I doubt if we will ever get true figures as to SLABs actual membership. I think it is safe to assume that it continues to fall on Murphy's watch though. It wouldn't surprise me to see even the endangered Scots Tories overtaking them in members. :)
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Roger said:

    FPT Tyson

    "Watching C4 news on immigration, you cannot help but feel that there is a large slice of poor, alienated whites that are angry, and for good reason."

    Read what happened to them during the Lady Porter/Mrs Thatcher era. They were shipped out of Westminster wholesale to secure a Tory majority. Ask anyone living in Westminster as I was what was going on. From Old Compton St to the Savoy every shop doorway had someone living in a cardboard box.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/sleaze-scandal-strips-dame-shirley-porter-of-her-title-94961.html

    PS I did think the expose on Cameron senior was below the belt

    Ditto on Cameron. Just seemed nasty and vindictive going for his dad's will and too personal.
    There is so much more to attack Cameron on, not his family inheritance.

    I think Porter's social cleansing marked a low point for the Tories, and that is saying alot

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Happy Birthday to MikeK.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Child Benefit is the first question...lol!

    Nice and simple, unequivocal answer.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited April 2015
    SMukesh said:

    I also hear before 2010 weighting,Lab was up 3 in COMRES nationwide rather than tied with the Tories.

    Then look at the tabs and see if you're right. No point saying 'I hear yada yada yada.'
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Child Benefit is the first question...lol!

    Nice and simple, unequivocal answer.
    I agree, he's started well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Confident start from Dave
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Oof !
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Here's the note!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Looking forward to the 'Leaders Special' made up of the leaders of England's 1st, 2nd and 4th biggest parties on current opinion polling ;-)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Within the strictures of a non debate format this alternative of extensive audience questions and reaction is lively and quite spontaneous.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    "I have in my hand a piece of paper..."
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    JackW said:

    Coming to a TV near you in a few minutes .... multiple gasms, but will it be a :

    Camgasm or Miligasm or a Cleggasm

    Or an apathyism?
    A rather-be-watching-the-other-channelism?
    A they're-as-bad-as-each-otherism?

    I think you missed my predictions this morning, the Jessop Integrated Summing Mechanism (JISM), which will overtake your ARSE to become the outstanding electorate prediction benchmark.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    "I have in my hand a piece of paper..."

    Chortle .... :smile:

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Dave is pretty good at this stuff.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    isam said:

    "I have in my hand a piece of paper..."

    That thought occurred to me when I saw him do it on the six o'clock news.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Cam on fire!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    This is a great format.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con audience giving good applause.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    All those CameronDirects show here in spades.
    Pong said:

    Dave is pretty good at this stuff.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    JackW said:

    Coming to a TV near you in a few minutes .... multiple gasms, but will it be a :

    Camgasm or Miligasm or a Cleggasm

    Or an apathyism?
    A rather-be-watching-the-other-channelism?
    A they're-as-bad-as-each-otherism?

    I think you missed my predictions this morning, the Jessop Integrated Summing Mechanism (JISM), which will overtake your ARSE to become the outstanding electorate prediction benchmark.
    This just gets worse. Do I need to introduce you to Fox's Universal Constituency Knowledge?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    "People have been killed by the bedroom tax".

    ?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    DC impressive i think.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Coming to a TV near you in a few minutes .... multiple gasms, but will it be a :

    Camgasm or Miligasm or a Cleggasm

    I think you missed my predictions this morning, the Jessop Integrated Summing Mechanism (JISM), which will overtake your ARSE to become the outstanding electorate prediction benchmark.
    Others come and go but there will always be my ARSE.

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    DC right that it's a better format than the debates, that's fa shiz. Proper town hall stuff.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Fierce audience!

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    DC all over the place on this tax law stuff. It's such a load of guff.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Saving 1 in every 100 pounds is a good line.
  • I'm absolutely shocked that most of the questions to Dave from the BBC audience have been hostile.

    Shocked, I tell you.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    Saving 1 in every 100 pounds is a good line.

    It is.

    But £30bn is more than £1 in £100!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    tim has spontaneously combusted... (wherever he is)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    It's wonderful to watch without sound, and Cammo is already sweaty and puce cheeked. The monsters (with one or two exceptions) in the audience must come from dregs. Where did the BBC find them? They must have made a special effort.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    I'm absolutely shocked that most of the questions to Dave from the BBC audience have been hostile.

    Shocked, I tell you.

    Probably better for him that they are, as he's dealing with them well and it's making him look good.
  • I'm absolutely shocked that most of the questions to Dave from the BBC audience have been hostile.

    Shocked, I tell you.

    I reckon that helps. He gets to sound more reasonable than the people asking the questions.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Dave should put the national debt on Hosie retaining Dundee East I reckon. 1% in 7 days. Guaranteed.
  • If Labour do lose the election, why can I see some Labour people making sure Liam Byrne sleeps with the fishes?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    No surprises at such a hostile audience. It really is absurd.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    This QT is the very antitheses of a debate. The usual load of bollocks.
  • I'm absolutely shocked that most of the questions to Dave from the BBC audience have been hostile.

    Shocked, I tell you.

    Probably better for him that they are, as he's dealing with them well and it's making him look good.
    I agree.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    I'm absolutely shocked that most of the questions to Dave from the BBC audience have been hostile.

    Shocked, I tell you.

    So they should be.

    They are there to be tested to within an inch of their majorities.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    How the hell has Clegg managed to wangle equal time as Cam and Miliband in this set up?

    Absolutely incredible
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Cameron wants to catch the tax avoiders. Guff.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Quite, like other PBers I've done town hall debates with similarly hostile types and never lost the silent majority vote. Big mouths go too far too often.

    I'm absolutely shocked that most of the questions to Dave from the BBC audience have been hostile.

    Shocked, I tell you.

    I reckon that helps. He gets to sound more reasonable than the people asking the questions.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    This past 20 mins has show that those who called for Cam to get all Major soap box were right.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Coming to a TV near you in a few minutes .... multiple gasms, but will it be a :

    Camgasm or Miligasm or a Cleggasm

    I think you missed my predictions this morning, the Jessop Integrated Summing Mechanism (JISM), which will overtake your ARSE to become the outstanding electorate prediction benchmark.
    Others come and go but there will always be my ARSE.

    I raise you Wardman's Advanced Nebulous Knowledge, which is so nebulous it can agree with all the opinion polls at once.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769

    If Labour do lose the election, why can I see some Labour people making sure Liam Byrne sleeps with the fishes?

    TSE - if they lose this one from here, any surviving members of the Shadow Cabinet will be sent to sleep with the fishes while Dennis Skinner is called on to sort out the mess. Remember, they are now firmly expecting to win even though it will be with the SNP's backing. Disappointment will not sit well with them...
  • JackW said:

    I'm absolutely shocked that most of the questions to Dave from the BBC audience have been hostile.

    Shocked, I tell you.

    So they should be.

    They are there to be tested to within an inch of their majorities.

    I agree, I hope they are as suitably hostile to Ed.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    isam said:

    How the hell has Clegg managed to wangle equal time as Cam and Miliband in this set up?

    Absolutely incredible

    Anything the BBC can do to crush UKIP they will do.
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    edited April 2015
    thought he was going to add wales on to portugal and greece there.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Plato said:

    No surprises at such a hostile audience. It really is absurd.

    I want a hostile audience.

    We don't want 90 minutes of puff and an easy time for the three leaders.

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    MikeK said:

    This QT is the very antitheses of a debate. The usual load of bollocks.

    Your lip-reading skills must be of a high order.
  • MimusMimus Posts: 56
    Has Lynton got Sam Cam locked up? Dave has got more intensity than usual.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937
    Unfotunately watching Star Trek...
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Happy birthday to Mike - 21 again, for the 60th time.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    isam said:

    How the hell has Clegg managed to wangle equal time as Cam and Miliband in this set up?

    Absolutely incredible

    Shocking that Farage wasn't offered the same gig. Are we a democratic country or not?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Looks v hot on that stage, quite glad Nigel swerved it!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    I'm absolutely shocked that most of the questions to Dave from the BBC audience have been hostile.

    Shocked, I tell you.

    Probably better for him that they are, as he's dealing with them well and it's making him look good.
    Agreed. The patball questions in the Sky Debate did him no good. Hostile questions dealt with, honestly, are much more persuasive.
    It is far and away the best format so far.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    zzzzzzzzzzz
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JackW said:

    Plato said:

    No surprises at such a hostile audience. It really is absurd.

    I want a hostile audience.

    We don't want 90 minutes of puff and an easy time for the three leaders.

    I'm amazed that an audience with 75% people not voting for him are hostile. Utterly shocked.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Ishmael_X said:

    MikeK said:

    This QT is the very antitheses of a debate. The usual load of bollocks.

    Your lip-reading skills must be of a high order.
    They are.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    If you like him he's impressive. If you don't he just seems completely fake and not very likeable.

    Blair used to be good at this.
  • Pulpstar said:

    zzzzzzzzzzz

    Check your inbox
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,774
    Net migration! He can't control that.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Just called the UK the EU...
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Cam also gets the best slot: first up, straight after Eastenders. They'll be bored by the time Clegg's on.
This discussion has been closed.