I noted earlier that the Green 8% caused some discussion about Norwich South. I have no local information, but got on for a few quid before the "Green Surge" at 25-1 which felt like a good price given it's notionally a billion-way marginal.
Anyway I'm in the market to sell, as while I think 25-1 was value, I don't think it's particularly likely. I'm curious what people who are bullish on the Greens generally would call a fair price.
I'm offering 6.6 at Betfair. I could go a bit higher if anyone's game given the lack of liquidity, but Labour matched at 1.25 suggests someone else is in with a shout, and I can't really see who that is if it isn't the Greens. Surely no way it's a LD hold?!
The cartoon made me laugh, but I'm not sure why. Maybe because it takes the pee out of all the sweaty self-centred political gob spray that's flying around, doubtless some of it mine.
I see SI has Ukip at 3.2 - 4.2. Must be a lot of Ukippers in the (virtual) bookies.
Well since the Tories have given up on Thurrock based on the Transport Secretary's plan, that means 2 certain UKIP seats plus any of Thanet.S, Rochester, Boston and Castle Point.
If UKIP's chances are 33% in each seat then UKIP getting 3 seats is the most probable outcome, if it's 50% then it's 4 seats, also there is a small chance that UKIP might produce a surprise in a seat that LordA hasn't polled.
Since our quick chat about the Garden Bridge I haven't been on at the same time as you. I can't get to London that evening so will have to pass on the kind offer, even if it would have cost a donation!
Paul Hutcheon @paulhutcheon 26 Apr 2015 Jim Murphy told the Sunday Times today there are around 15,000 members of @scottishlabour – he said 19,000 a few months back
Reporting Scotland, 30 Apr 2015:
Jim Murphy: “The Scottish Labour Party figures are about 20,000 and growing.”
Sally Magnusson: “7,000 of these are social club members, of course.”
Jim: *says stuff about how proud all these imaginary Labour members are*
Sally: “I take it from that that you’re not at a 15-year high.”
Almost all polls show good retention of 2010 Lab voters.
If you voted for them in 2010,you are likely to vote for them now unless you are in Scotland.
So Red Kippers don't exist? And the Greens aren't relevant. Right.
Check previous polls.Generally the retention is 80-90%.It used to be higher before the Independence campaign.
Sure. But you stated, with such confidence, something so complacent that you needed pulling up for your own good. Mebbe it's an outlier. Mebbe it's not.
I think SMukesh makes a decent assessment of the MORI poll tbh. There just way too many variables about that sample which seem 'off'. I don't see where else Labour are going to significantly lose support other that Scotland, and it's been pretty well documented the UKIP effect on Labour is generally limited. The Green figure is something that I pretty much doubt will come to fruition - does anyone really think the Greens, who have generally struggled in the polls this campaign will suddenly poll 8%? I think some of that sample may well move to Labour. I also think the 63% figure is highly unusual, and that you can't really take much from it until we see other firms show the same. Likewise with the Tories leading in London, which is something I wouldn't bet on at all - generally polling has shown Labour to be doing pretty well in London.
Since our quick chat about the Garden Bridge I haven't been on at the same time as you. I can't get to London that evening so will have to pass on the kind offer, even if it would have cost a donation!
My FIL was a leading member of his local Conservative Club in Heworth, Gateshead. He paid his dues and played snooker every night. And he voted Labour as did everyone else.
He was also the local branch sec for his union. The Conservative Club had the best facilities and within walking distance of his house. Social clubs are no yardstick for anything.
Paul Hutcheon @paulhutcheon 26 Apr 2015 Jim Murphy told the Sunday Times today there are around 15,000 members of @scottishlabour – he said 19,000 a few months back
Reporting Scotland, 30 Apr 2015:
Jim Murphy: “The Scottish Labour Party figures are about 20,000 and growing.”
Sally Magnusson: “7,000 of these are social club members, of course.”
Jim: *says stuff about how proud all these imaginary Labour members are*
Sally: “I take it from that that you’re not at a 15-year high.”
Good evening all. And to those PBers that wished me happy birthday today, a big thanks and a hug, although JackW might not appreciate it. (the hug I mean)
"Watching C4 news on immigration, you cannot help but feel that there is a large slice of poor, alienated whites that are angry, and for good reason."
Read what happened to them during the Lady Porter/Mrs Thatcher era. They were shipped out of Westminster wholesale to secure a Tory majority. Ask anyone living in Westminster as I was what was going on. From Old Compton St to the Savoy every shop doorway had someone living in a cardboard box.
Since our quick chat about the Garden Bridge I haven't been on at the same time as you. I can't get to London that evening so will have to pass on the kind offer, even if it would have cost a donation!
Good evening all. And to those PBers that wished me happy birthday today, a big thanks and a hug, although JackW might not appreciate it. (the hug I mean)
Good evening all. And to those PBers that wished me happy birthday today, a big thanks and a hug, although JackW might not appreciate it. (the hug I mean)
My FIL was a leading member of his local Conservative Club in Heworth, Gateshead. He paid his dues and played snooker every night. And he voted Labour as did everyone else.
He was also the local branch sec for his union. The Conservative Club had the best facilities and within walking distance of his house. Social clubs are no yardstick for anything.
Paul Hutcheon @paulhutcheon 26 Apr 2015 Jim Murphy told the Sunday Times today there are around 15,000 members of @scottishlabour – he said 19,000 a few months back
Reporting Scotland, 30 Apr 2015:
Jim Murphy: “The Scottish Labour Party figures are about 20,000 and growing.”
Sally Magnusson: “7,000 of these are social club members, of course.”
Jim: *says stuff about how proud all these imaginary Labour members are*
Sally: “I take it from that that you’re not at a 15-year high.”
Jim: “We are actually. Over 20,000.”
I doubt if we will ever get true figures as to SLABs actual membership. I think it is safe to assume that it continues to fall on Murphy's watch though. It wouldn't surprise me to see even the endangered Scots Tories overtaking them in members.
"Watching C4 news on immigration, you cannot help but feel that there is a large slice of poor, alienated whites that are angry, and for good reason."
Read what happened to them during the Lady Porter/Mrs Thatcher era. They were shipped out of Westminster wholesale to secure a Tory majority. Ask anyone living in Westminster as I was what was going on. From Old Compton St to the Savoy every shop doorway had someone living in a cardboard box.
PS I did think the expose on Cameron senior was below the belt
Ditto on Cameron. Just seemed nasty and vindictive going for his dad's will and too personal. There is so much more to attack Cameron on, not his family inheritance.
I think Porter's social cleansing marked a low point for the Tories, and that is saying alot
Coming to a TV near you in a few minutes .... multiple gasms, but will it be a :
Camgasm or Miligasm or a Cleggasm
Or an apathyism? A rather-be-watching-the-other-channelism? A they're-as-bad-as-each-otherism?
I think you missed my predictions this morning, the Jessop Integrated Summing Mechanism (JISM), which will overtake your ARSE to become the outstanding electorate prediction benchmark.
Coming to a TV near you in a few minutes .... multiple gasms, but will it be a :
Camgasm or Miligasm or a Cleggasm
Or an apathyism? A rather-be-watching-the-other-channelism? A they're-as-bad-as-each-otherism?
I think you missed my predictions this morning, the Jessop Integrated Summing Mechanism (JISM), which will overtake your ARSE to become the outstanding electorate prediction benchmark.
This just gets worse. Do I need to introduce you to Fox's Universal Constituency Knowledge?
Coming to a TV near you in a few minutes .... multiple gasms, but will it be a :
Camgasm or Miligasm or a Cleggasm
I think you missed my predictions this morning, the Jessop Integrated Summing Mechanism (JISM), which will overtake your ARSE to become the outstanding electorate prediction benchmark.
Others come and go but there will always be my ARSE.
It's wonderful to watch without sound, and Cammo is already sweaty and puce cheeked. The monsters (with one or two exceptions) in the audience must come from dregs. Where did the BBC find them? They must have made a special effort.
Quite, like other PBers I've done town hall debates with similarly hostile types and never lost the silent majority vote. Big mouths go too far too often.
Coming to a TV near you in a few minutes .... multiple gasms, but will it be a :
Camgasm or Miligasm or a Cleggasm
I think you missed my predictions this morning, the Jessop Integrated Summing Mechanism (JISM), which will overtake your ARSE to become the outstanding electorate prediction benchmark.
Others come and go but there will always be my ARSE.
I raise you Wardman's Advanced Nebulous Knowledge, which is so nebulous it can agree with all the opinion polls at once.
If Labour do lose the election, why can I see some Labour people making sure Liam Byrne sleeps with the fishes?
TSE - if they lose this one from here, any surviving members of the Shadow Cabinet will be sent to sleep with the fishes while Dennis Skinner is called on to sort out the mess. Remember, they are now firmly expecting to win even though it will be with the SNP's backing. Disappointment will not sit well with them...
Comments
Anyway I'm in the market to sell, as while I think 25-1 was value, I don't think it's particularly likely. I'm curious what people who are bullish on the Greens generally would call a fair price.
I'm offering 6.6 at Betfair. I could go a bit higher if anyone's game given the lack of liquidity, but Labour matched at 1.25 suggests someone else is in with a shout, and I can't really see who that is if it isn't the Greens. Surely no way it's a LD hold?!
I'm not going to bother watching it.
If UKIP's chances are 33% in each seat then UKIP getting 3 seats is the most probable outcome, if it's 50% then it's 4 seats, also there is a small chance that UKIP might produce a surprise in a seat that LordA hasn't polled.
Almost all polls show good retention of 2010 Lab voters.
If you voted for them in 2010,you are likely to vote for them now unless you are in Scotland.
Since our quick chat about the Garden Bridge I haven't been on at the same time as you. I can't get to London that evening so will have to pass on the kind offer, even if it would have cost a donation!
Thanks for thinking of me.
Paul Hutcheon @paulhutcheon 26 Apr 2015
Jim Murphy told the Sunday Times today there are around 15,000 members of @scottishlabour – he said 19,000 a few months back
Reporting Scotland, 30 Apr 2015:
Jim Murphy: “The Scottish Labour Party figures are about 20,000 and growing.”
Sally Magnusson: “7,000 of these are social club members, of course.”
Jim: *says stuff about how proud all these imaginary Labour members are*
Sally: “I take it from that that you’re not at a 15-year high.”
Jim: “We are actually. Over 20,000.”
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB ·
Given that both Daves', Cameron and Dimbleby are Bullingdon Club members should one or both declare an interest?
Instead of nit-picking just rejoice, and congratulate our pollsters.
He was also the local branch sec for his union. The Conservative Club had the best facilities and within walking distance of his house. Social clubs are no yardstick for anything.
"Watching C4 news on immigration, you cannot help but feel that there is a large slice of poor, alienated whites that are angry, and for good reason."
Read what happened to them during the Lady Porter/Mrs Thatcher era. They were shipped out of Westminster wholesale to secure a Tory majority. Ask anyone living in Westminster as I was what was going on. From Old Compton St to the Savoy every shop doorway had someone living in a cardboard box.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/sleaze-scandal-strips-dame-shirley-porter-of-her-title-94961.html
PS I did think the expose on Cameron senior was below the belt
Camgasm or Miligasm or a Cleggasm
I'm that sort of chap ....
There is so much more to attack Cameron on, not his family inheritance.
I think Porter's social cleansing marked a low point for the Tories, and that is saying alot
A rather-be-watching-the-other-channelism?
A they're-as-bad-as-each-otherism?
I think you missed my predictions this morning, the Jessop Integrated Summing Mechanism (JISM), which will overtake your ARSE to become the outstanding electorate prediction benchmark.
?
Shocked, I tell you.
But £30bn is more than £1 in £100!
They are there to be tested to within an inch of their majorities.
Absolutely incredible
We don't want 90 minutes of puff and an easy time for the three leaders.
Blair used to be good at this.