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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How many of these ten will fail to become MPs next week?

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  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Rexel56 said:

    Schards said:

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Anecdotage

    My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.

    She asked him which way he was voting, and he said

    "Well, I quite like the Conservatories"

    The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
    This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
    Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?

    My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.

    His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?

    My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.

    So what would you do and what would you advise?

    If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
    With due respect, what's it to do with you? His decision, his bed to lie in.
    Agree it is his decision to make. You can listen, offer unsolicited advice once or twice, but then leave him be until he asks for your help or advice.

    A key thing in what I would advise is whether he enjoys the investment banking at all or just sees it as a means to make gobs of money. If the latter, I'd probably be much more sympathetic with him following his dream. Another factor is how long the bank will be happy with him maintaining his part-time status and if the offer of the full-time job can be deferred. If they really want him, they are likely to be flexible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    franklyn said:

    franklyn said:

    Do people on this site really believe that the SNP will produce a clean sweep in the 59 Scottish seats? would anyone like to have a charity bet (i.e they believe they will, I believe they won't). Loser to pay £50 to the charity of the winner's choice. Must be a UK wide charity (not a Scottish only or English only one) and not a religious charity.

    First person to accept publicly on PB is on (one bet only). My nominated charity (should I win) is the Cure Parkinsons Trust, which supports research done into Parkinsons disease. Anyone who wants to support the charity but not take the bet can go onto www.justgiving.com/Anna-Monk1

    Please accept this post in the sporting spirit in which it was intended, even if you have disagreed with previous posts that I have made, and please consider a donation to this worthy charity even if you don't want to bet.

    Most amusing...none of you cybernats are willing to back up all your shouting by risking your own money! You only want to spend money if it's someone else's, I presume
    Sorry but why would anyone take this bet when the SNP are still 9-2 in Orkney and Shetland ?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Sounds like an Islamophobic report to me.''

    This is starting to get nibbled at on Twitter too. This particular bomb is now ticking...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Panic on the streets of Rotherham, Panic on the streets in Birmingham, I wonder to myself...

    "Child Sexual Exploitation: We force West Midlands Police to release secret report which confirms 'significant similarities' with Rotherham scandal

    Problem profile reveals truth about grooming gangs in region, including 'majority of offenders are typically Asian, of Pakistani origin'"

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/child-sexual-exploitation-force-west-9151006

    Sounds like an Islamophobic report to me. Good job they got it out this week.
    What on earth is Miliband thinking with that nonsense?

    The similarities with Rotherham go much deeper than just those the offenders share.. the council and the police look like they tried to cover it up again
  • Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·9 mins9 minutes ago
    From a quick scan of the Ipsos-MORI data nothing stands out. CON voters a bit more certain to vote which adds 1% to their share

    nothing stands out ... for me to pick holes in it?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sandpit said:

    FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?

    Correct. See the very first post on the very long last thread from @Ishmael_X with a link to the cabinet office working document.
    Basically DC is PM until he resigns, and he's expected to hold on until he can go to the Queen with the name of the next guy. Even if there's a no-confidence vote on day 1 of the new Parliament DC is still PM.
    14 days after the no-confidence vote if no-one has won a vote of confidence then the second election happens.
    I guess it's possible that DC resigns and the Queen calls EM, who would become PM only to lose his own confidence motion and have Parliament dissolved, yet remain as PM during the second election cycle...
    If Cameron loses his first VoC he resigns, and Miliband is ordinarily summoned to be PM.

    Btw, Cameron is under no duty to recommend this (or the Queen to heed such advice), it would just flow naturally that Miliband is now "best placed" (however theoretically) to command the House, since Cameron obviously can't.

    If Miliband then gets a Queen's Speech/VoC through, the pressure's off and we have an interesting new government for the time being.

    If Miliband were to fail, it's open for question whether some other configuration could be tried (if there is still time).

    Failing which, Miliband could (probably would) resign, and the Queen re-appoint Cammo as "caretaker" to lead the country into a second election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    edited April 2015
    Schards said:

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Anecdotage

    My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.

    She asked him which way he was voting, and he said

    "Well, I quite like the Conservatories"

    The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
    This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
    Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?

    My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.

    His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?

    My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.

    So what would you do and what would you advise?

    If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
    Well at least he has the good choice to make.

    Looking from a dry financial perspective, he'll earn more as a banker than all but the top 1% (or 0.1%) of musicians, if he makes a career of it. Most bands die within a few years even if they made a lot of money while they were active.

    Has the band been signed yet, or are they expecting a record deal or tour contract in the very near future?

    I would make sure that he makes his reasons for leaving the bank really clear, and try and get a commitment from them to postpone his contract to allow a 'gap year' to explore his options in the music industry. After a year he can revisit and decide which path to take...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    taffys said:

    ''Sounds like an Islamophobic report to me.''

    This is starting to get nibbled at on Twitter too. This particular bomb is now ticking...

    "Birmingham City Council had played down the ethnicity link when it published its own report into CSE in November, called We Need To Get It Right. It stated: “The high-profile cases have largely drawn explicit attention to the girls being ‘white’ and the perpetrators ‘Asian’. Our evidence has shouted out that the exploitation can happen to anybody irrespective of where you live or your family circumstances.’’

    It later added... “this crime can be carried out by anyone and to shine a light on just one community or type of person puts other children at risk.’’

    In November we told how a 20-year-old Birmingham council commissioned report which had first raised the links with CSE and Asian taxi drivers had been ‘buried’ by not being fully published.

    Child Protection boss Peter Hay went public to deny our claims and to state the report had been published in full, but was eventually forced to backtrack when pressed on the point on national radio.

    Meanwhile, West Midlands Police has breached statutory guidelines by being too slow in providing information on their latest problem profile,

    We submitted our Freedom of Information request on March 5 and the problem profile should have been provided within 20 working days. But it took the force’s FOI unit 39 working days to provide the heavily redacted profile.

    Ironically, the department - which consistently fails to hit the 20-day deadline with other Mail requests - insisted it had a duty to put our FOI onto the force website without hours of sending it to us because it said the information contained was ‘in the public interest’."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    Pulpstar said:

    franklyn said:

    franklyn said:

    Do people on this site really believe that the SNP will produce a clean sweep in the 59 Scottish seats? would anyone like to have a charity bet (i.e they believe they will, I believe they won't). Loser to pay £50 to the charity of the winner's choice. Must be a UK wide charity (not a Scottish only or English only one) and not a religious charity.

    First person to accept publicly on PB is on (one bet only). My nominated charity (should I win) is the Cure Parkinsons Trust, which supports research done into Parkinsons disease. Anyone who wants to support the charity but not take the bet can go onto www.justgiving.com/Anna-Monk1

    Please accept this post in the sporting spirit in which it was intended, even if you have disagreed with previous posts that I have made, and please consider a donation to this worthy charity even if you don't want to bet.

    Most amusing...none of you cybernats are willing to back up all your shouting by risking your own money! You only want to spend money if it's someone else's, I presume
    Sorry but why would anyone take this bet when the SNP are still 9-2 in Orkney and Shetland ?
    Indeed. In the runup for the indyref one of the unionist posters managed to get a similar bet with one of the pro-indy folk but then crowed about being able to offset his bet with the better odds available at a betting company for the same thing.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·9 mins9 minutes ago
    From a quick scan of the Ipsos-MORI data nothing stands out. CON voters a bit more certain to vote which adds 1% to their share

    nothing stands out ... for me to pick holes in it?

    Drat, eh?

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893

    Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·9 mins9 minutes ago
    From a quick scan of the Ipsos-MORI data nothing stands out. CON voters a bit more certain to vote which adds 1% to their share

    nothing stands out ... for me to pick holes in it?

    2010 Labour voters being 20% lower than usual stands out.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    isam said:

    Panic on the streets of Rotherham, Panic on the streets in Birmingham, I wonder to myself...

    "Child Sexual Exploitation: We force West Midlands Police to release secret report which confirms 'significant similarities' with Rotherham scandal

    Problem profile reveals truth about grooming gangs in region, including 'majority of offenders are typically Asian, of Pakistani origin'"

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/child-sexual-exploitation-force-west-9151006


    Isam- I don't think Morrissey would be too annoyed you pinching his lines. The last I read about him he is a borderline kipper.

    From Irish Blood, English Heart

    "I've been dreaming of a time when
    the English are sick to death
    of Labour, and Tories
    and spit upon the name Oliver Cromwell

    I can forgive Morrissey for being a kipper. "Meat is Murder" is sublime, and "How Soon is Now" fed my teenage angst.
    And the Smiths are Cameron's favourite band.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The wrong sort of nit-picking?
    Artist said:

    Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·9 mins9 minutes ago
    From a quick scan of the Ipsos-MORI data nothing stands out. CON voters a bit more certain to vote which adds 1% to their share

    nothing stands out ... for me to pick holes in it?

    2010 Labour voters being 20% lower than usual stands out.
  • Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·9 mins9 minutes ago
    From a quick scan of the Ipsos-MORI data nothing stands out. CON voters a bit more certain to vote which adds 1% to their share

    nothing stands out ... for me to pick holes in it?

    phew...

    Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·7 mins7 minutes ago
    Only 63% of 2010 LAB voters supporting party now according to Ipsos. Other polls have that at 80+
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited April 2015

    Clearly a few toss-ups in that list, but I make it four (incl 3 out of 4 Scottish MPs + Farage) appear very unlikely to be returned and by my estimation and four definitely will be (incl both Clegg and Balls). So I'll split the remaining 2 seats as being one apiece, and therefore from the point of view of the bet, I reckon a total of 5 from this list of ten won't make it back, worth 25 points, so were I to wager, I would be a very modest SELLER at Sporting's 27 points, but certainly not sufficiently so as to tempt me to actually place a bet.

    That was exactly my reasoning, PfP.

    There are four near certain losers and the rest range from probable to near certain winners. 25 points is the most likely outcome, so a sell but with so little value in it that it ain't worth bothering.

    There are much better bets out there.
    We really must stop appearing to agree like this on everything PtP.
    There are at least two aspects (not wishing to be too specific you understand) on which I am aware that we disagree violently.
    Violently, PfP?

    Amicably, I would hope. We're getting a bit old for fisticuffs. ;-)
    You're right PtP, "violently" is far too harsh a description, whilst "amicably" is equally way too soft.
    I believe "diametrically opposite" more accurately describes the extent of our differences concerning the two *cough* aspects in question.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Isam,

    Its a wonder that UKIP aren;t shouting what labour plan to do about 'islamophobia' from the rooftops.

    Maybe they are....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Panic on the streets of Rotherham, Panic on the streets in Birmingham, I wonder to myself...

    "Child Sexual Exploitation: We force West Midlands Police to release secret report which confirms 'significant similarities' with Rotherham scandal

    Problem profile reveals truth about grooming gangs in region, including 'majority of offenders are typically Asian, of Pakistani origin'"

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/child-sexual-exploitation-force-west-9151006


    Isam- I don't think Morrissey would be too annoyed you pinching his lines. The last I read about him he is a borderline kipper.

    From Irish Blood, English Heart

    "I've been dreaming of a time when
    the English are sick to death
    of Labour, and Tories
    and spit upon the name Oliver Cromwell

    I can forgive Morrissey for being a kipper. "Meat is Murder" is sublime, and "How Soon is Now" fed my teenage angst.
    And the Smiths are Cameron's favourite band.
    Morrissey has long been a closet...

    Kipper

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/9792730/I-nearly-voted-for-Ukip-says-Morrissey.html

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    franklyn said:

    franklyn said:

    Do people on this site really believe that the SNP will produce a clean sweep in the 59 Scottish seats? would anyone like to have a charity bet (i.e they believe they will, I believe they won't). Loser to pay £50 to the charity of the winner's choice. Must be a UK wide charity (not a Scottish only or English only one) and not a religious charity.

    First person to accept publicly on PB is on (one bet only). My nominated charity (should I win) is the Cure Parkinsons Trust, which supports research done into Parkinsons disease. Anyone who wants to support the charity but not take the bet can go onto www.justgiving.com/Anna-Monk1

    Please accept this post in the sporting spirit in which it was intended, even if you have disagreed with previous posts that I have made, and please consider a donation to this worthy charity even if you don't want to bet.

    Most amusing...none of you cybernats are willing to back up all your shouting by risking your own money! You only want to spend money if it's someone else's, I presume
    Sorry but why would anyone take this bet when the SNP are still 9-2 in Orkney and Shetland ?
    Indeed. In the runup for the indyref one of the unionist posters managed to get a similar bet with one of the pro-indy folk but then crowed about being able to offset his bet with the better odds available at a betting company for the same thing.

    Well Union Divvie's odds were exceptionally generous !

    My winnings from him went straight to Fluffy Thoughts mind....

    Bloody oil !
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Not much chat about tonight's QT on here. I have read it could be crucial, however...????
  • SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    Many thanks for all the response which, in the main reinforce what I was thinking
    - that it's his decision
    - he probably only gets one shot at this whereas he can go back to commerce
    - he would probably regret it forever
    - whilst he won't necessarily listen to me, he'd like my consent and support

    Good advice to have a chat with the bank, explain the position and see what they might consider regarding a sabbatical or a deferral of his offer.

    I'm worried if it fails he might be looking for a full time job when the economic environment is not as favourable as now but, hey, YOLO, as Ed might say.

    Thanks everyone, I'll let you know if they make it, I'm travelling up to Glasgow to watch them this weekend at some festival or other
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Anyway, my premonition- the YouGov poll tonight is going to call the election's voting numbers- the numbers will be spot on. The QT appearances and other polls are just going to be noise. Tonight's YouGov sample will be dead on the money.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Schards said:

    Many thanks for all the response which, in the main reinforce what I was thinking
    - that it's his decision
    - he probably only gets one shot at this whereas he can go back to commerce
    - he would probably regret it forever
    - whilst he won't necessarily listen to me, he'd like my consent and support

    Good advice to have a chat with the bank, explain the position and see what they might consider regarding a sabbatical or a deferral of his offer.

    I'm worried if it fails he might be looking for a full time job when the economic environment is not as favourable as now but, hey, YOLO, as Ed might say.

    Thanks everyone, I'll let you know if they make it, I'm travelling up to Glasgow to watch them this weekend at some festival or other

    Obviously if he is a Tory Schards you have to advise him to go into banking.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    isam said:

    Panic on the streets of Rotherham, Panic on the streets in Birmingham, I wonder to myself...

    "Child Sexual Exploitation: We force West Midlands Police to release secret report which confirms 'significant similarities' with Rotherham scandal

    Problem profile reveals truth about grooming gangs in region, including 'majority of offenders are typically Asian, of Pakistani origin'"

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/child-sexual-exploitation-force-west-9151006

    Ouch! What chance a UKIP surprise or two in Birmingham if this stays in the news?

    Especially with regard to taxi drivers, the council has a massive duty of care in vetting and following up complaints about someone with a licence from the council. That they haven't (in several towns and cities) says a lot about the incumbents.

    I do wonder if this specific issue would have been taken more seriously 10 years ago if it wasn't that the only person banging the drum at the time was Nick Griffin. It's the message, not the messenger.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    SNP on 53% in Scotland on MORI... including the 18% who make up the "undecided"
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Ipsos

    14% Green 18-24
    17% Green 25-34
    10% Lab-Grn switchers. It's showing in private renters (17%) and London/South (11%) as well.

    The new Lib Dems.

    I can anecdotally add that Green is what I hear most often among my children and their friends, all this age group.

    Clegg is as popular to them as Thatcher is to middle aged Labour or Brown to Tories.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SNP didn't even get to 60% in Ipsos MORI subsample. Disappointed.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937


    I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?

    These days that is likely to be termed, or described as, "rape".

    A drunk woman is deemed unable to consent under Harriet Harman law.

    Bloody patronising of her, of you ask me.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Schards said: - Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?

    Every parent wants the best for their child, but this is a decision best left for him to make.

    Success or failure is nothing compared to a life time of regret, just be there if, and when he needs you.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    isam said:

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Panic on the streets of Rotherham, Panic on the streets in Birmingham, I wonder to myself...

    "Child Sexual Exploitation: We force West Midlands Police to release secret report which confirms 'significant similarities' with Rotherham scandal

    Problem profile reveals truth about grooming gangs in region, including 'majority of offenders are typically Asian, of Pakistani origin'"

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/child-sexual-exploitation-force-west-9151006


    Isam- I don't think Morrissey would be too annoyed you pinching his lines. The last I read about him he is a borderline kipper.

    From Irish Blood, English Heart

    "I've been dreaming of a time when
    the English are sick to death
    of Labour, and Tories
    and spit upon the name Oliver Cromwell

    I can forgive Morrissey for being a kipper. "Meat is Murder" is sublime, and "How Soon is Now" fed my teenage angst.
    And the Smiths are Cameron's favourite band.
    Morrissey has long been a closet...

    Kipper

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/9792730/I-nearly-voted-for-Ukip-says-Morrissey.html

    Morrissey is a genius, and I can forgive him even being a kipper.
    Bryan Ferry, on the other hand- an aspirational Country Tory- no. Discredits his music IMO.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Alistair said:

    SNP didn't even get to 60% in Ipsos MORI subsample. Disappointed.

    They are on 53% including undecideds and don't knows !

    They "break the weighting" at this level imo.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Who is even aware of the Question Time debate tonight? No one has mentioned it amongst my friends or at work.

    I only remember myself from reading on here.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Been thinking how we might get a BJESUS type result. The numbers only seem to add up if I use Sunil's ELBOW to apply Josias's JISM to Jack's ARSE...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    SNP didn't even get to 60% in Ipsos MORI subsample. Disappointed.

    They are on 53% including undecideds and don't knows !

    They "break the weighting" at this level imo.
    @TheScreamingEagles thought I was underplaying it when I guessed 89%.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Panic on the streets of Rotherham, Panic on the streets in Birmingham, I wonder to myself...

    "Child Sexual Exploitation: We force West Midlands Police to release secret report which confirms 'significant similarities' with Rotherham scandal

    Problem profile reveals truth about grooming gangs in region, including 'majority of offenders are typically Asian, of Pakistani origin'"

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/child-sexual-exploitation-force-west-9151006

    Ouch! What chance a UKIP surprise or two in Birmingham if this stays in the news?

    Especially with regard to taxi drivers, the council has a massive duty of care in vetting and following up complaints about someone with a licence from the council. That they haven't (in several towns and cities) says a lot about the incumbents.

    I do wonder if this specific issue would have been taken more seriously 10 years ago if it wasn't that the only person banging the drum at the time was Nick Griffin. It's the message, not the messenger.
    Last night I was at a fascinating event called Matt Forde's political party at the St James Theatre.. its a political stand up routine followed by an interview with a political figure.. Last night the guest was Tommy Robinson from the EDL

    He was a much much more impressive character than I could possibly have imagined. The friend I went with, a non white man of Moroccan heritage who considers himself an arch leftie said afterwards of Robinson "He is right. But the people he is taking on (Islamic fundamentalists) are more stubborn and committed than he is bargaining for."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    RodCrosby said:

    Sandpit said:

    FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?

    Correct. See the very first post on the very long last thread from @Ishmael_X with a link to the cabinet office working document.
    Basically DC is PM until he resigns, and he's expected to hold on until he can go to the Queen with the name of the next guy. Even if there's a no-confidence vote on day 1 of the new Parliament DC is still PM.
    14 days after the no-confidence vote if no-one has won a vote of confidence then the second election happens.
    I guess it's possible that DC resigns and the Queen calls EM, who would become PM only to lose his own confidence motion and have Parliament dissolved, yet remain as PM during the second election cycle...
    If Cameron loses his first VoC he resigns, and Miliband is ordinarily summoned to be PM.

    Btw, Cameron is under no duty to recommend this (or the Queen to heed such advice), it would just flow naturally that Miliband is now "best placed" (however theoretically) to command the House, since Cameron obviously can't.

    If Miliband then gets a Queen's Speech/VoC through, the pressure's off and we have an interesting new government for the time being.

    If Miliband were to fail, it's open for question whether some other configuration could be tried (if there is still time).

    Failing which, Miliband could (probably would) resign, and the Queen re-appoint Cammo as "caretaker" to lead the country into a second election.
    Under what circumstances would the Queen actually fire Miliband and replace with Cameron? I can't see that happening, we would go into the second election under PM Ed. If Ed resigns he can't call DC as he lost a motion of confidence already.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    Been thinking how we might get a BJESUS type result. The numbers only seem to add up if I use Sunil's ELBOW to apply Josias's JISM to Jack's ARSE...

    There is only one genuine ELBOW - accept no imitations :lol:
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I saw it on my FreeSat showcase menu - but forgot about it instantly.

    Who is even aware of the Question Time debate tonight? No one has mentioned it amongst my friends or at work.

    I only remember myself from reading on here.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MattW said:


    I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?

    These days that is likely to be termed, or described as, "rape".

    A drunk woman is deemed unable to consent under Harriet Harman law.

    Bloody patronising of her, of you ask me.

    And it is no defence if the drunk man is equally or more drunk to the woman he hooks up with (or in Harmanland rapes).

    Rape is a serious and horrific offence that shouldn't be equated to drunken sex.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015

    isam said:

    isam said:

    A month ago Ed Miliband was 2.6 on Betfair to be PM, now he is 1.63

    Both wrong prices :)
    I backed 2.56 and laid 1.96 #shrewd
    Yeah I got out far too early too and am now net red on the market!
    The ~4/6 on Ed looks about right to me, what price do you make it?
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    MattW said:


    I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?

    These days that is likely to be termed, or described as, "rape".

    A drunk woman is deemed unable to consent under Harriet Harman law.

    Bloody patronising of her, of you ask me.

    he didn't say the women were drunk
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    'Bloody patronising of her, of you ask me.'

    Nothing is ever a woman's fault, ever.

    Didn;t you get the memo?
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    Yeah, Greens are the new 'lib dems' - their platform has (slightly) begun to moderate(ish). Party did believe in a 90% top rate and a 60% corporation tax. From what I can read, it's no longer the case.

    Suspect the moderation will continue, but it will begin to alienate some voters/members. The influx of ex LD's and Labour is going to influence decision/policy making.

    Don't think, polling wise, Greens will hit low/mid 20s. 15-17% is probably the ceiling.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Anecdote alert - friend, voted Con in 2010 - hates Cameron - spent last 2 years telling me she's definitely voting UKIP - I've tried persuading her differently - wouldn't listen to me - last saw her a few weeks ago and "100% definitely" voting UKIP.

    Received a brief email from her within the last hour - she's voting Con. No mention of UKIP in her message.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Yes, dear is the accepted form here. :wink:
    taffys said:

    'Bloody patronising of her, of you ask me.'

    Nothing is ever a woman's fault, ever.

    Didn;t you get the memo?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sandpit said:

    FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?

    Correct. See the very first post on the very long last thread from @Ishmael_X with a link to the cabinet office working document.
    Basically DC is PM until he resigns, and he's expected to hold on until he can go to the Queen with the name of the next guy. Even if there's a no-confidence vote on day 1 of the new Parliament DC is still PM.
    14 days after the no-confidence vote if no-one has won a vote of confidence then the second election happens.
    I guess it's possible that DC resigns and the Queen calls EM, who would become PM only to lose his own confidence motion and have Parliament dissolved, yet remain as PM during the second election cycle...
    If Cameron loses his first VoC he resigns, and Miliband is ordinarily summoned to be PM.

    Btw, Cameron is under no duty to recommend this (or the Queen to heed such advice), it would just flow naturally that Miliband is now "best placed" (however theoretically) to command the House, since Cameron obviously can't.

    If Miliband then gets a Queen's Speech/VoC through, the pressure's off and we have an interesting new government for the time being.

    If Miliband were to fail, it's open for question whether some other configuration could be tried (if there is still time).

    Failing which, Miliband could (probably would) resign, and the Queen re-appoint Cammo as "caretaker" to lead the country into a second election.
    Under what circumstances would the Queen actually fire Miliband and replace with Cameron? I can't see that happening, we would go into the second election under PM Ed. If Ed resigns he can't call DC as he lost a motion of confidence already.
    I assume if Miliband fails to put together a government that can get through its first vote then Cameron might be restored as PM based on being the last person to have done so. However its never happened in the history of our nation and realistically is unlikely to do so.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Sandpit said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sandpit said:

    FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?

    Correct. See the very first post on the very long last thread from @Ishmael_X with a link to the cabinet office working document.
    Basically DC is PM until he resigns, and he's expected to hold on until he can go to the Queen with the name of the next guy. Even if there's a no-confidence vote on day 1 of the new Parliament DC is still PM.
    14 days after the no-confidence vote if no-one has won a vote of confidence then the second election happens.
    I guess it's possible that DC resigns and the Queen calls EM, who would become PM only to lose his own confidence motion and have Parliament dissolved, yet remain as PM during the second election cycle...
    If Cameron loses his first VoC he resigns, and Miliband is ordinarily summoned to be PM.

    Btw, Cameron is under no duty to recommend this (or the Queen to heed such advice), it would just flow naturally that Miliband is now "best placed" (however theoretically) to command the House, since Cameron obviously can't.

    If Miliband then gets a Queen's Speech/VoC through, the pressure's off and we have an interesting new government for the time being.

    If Miliband were to fail, it's open for question whether some other configuration could be tried (if there is still time).

    Failing which, Miliband could (probably would) resign, and the Queen re-appoint Cammo as "caretaker" to lead the country into a second election.
    Under what circumstances would the Queen actually fire Miliband and replace with Cameron? I can't see that happening, we would go into the second election under PM Ed. If Ed resigns he can't call DC as he lost a motion of confidence already.
    I can only see Miliband being called if he can provide 'evidence' or a understanding that he can command the confidence of the house, minority or otherwise.

    It would provide a crisis if HM called Miliband and he failed his first VoC/QS.
  • Clearly a few toss-ups in that list, but I make it four (incl 3 out of 4 Scottish MPs + Farage) appear very unlikely to be returned and by my estimation and four definitely will be (incl both Clegg and Balls). So I'll split the remaining 2 seats as being one apiece, and therefore from the point of view of the bet, I reckon a total of 5 from this list of ten won't make it back, worth 25 points, so were I to wager, I would be a very modest SELLER at Sporting's 27 points, but certainly not sufficiently so as to tempt me to actually place a bet.

    That was exactly my reasoning, PfP.

    There are four near certain losers and the rest range from probable to near certain winners. 25 points is the most likely outcome, so a sell but with so little value in it that it ain't worth bothering.

    There are much better bets out there.
    We really must stop appearing to agree like this on everything PtP.
    There are at least two aspects (not wishing to be too specific you understand) on which I am aware that we disagree violently.
    Violently, PfP?

    Amicably, I would hope. We're getting a bit old for fisticuffs. ;-)
    You're right PtP, "violently" is far too harsh a description, whilst "amicably" is equally way too soft.
    I believe "diametrically opposite" more accurately describes the extent of our differences concerning the two *cough* aspects in question.
    Yes, I'd drink to that, PfP. (OSH, of course.)

    As a matter of fact, I'd been getting a little worried about you recently. I thought I'd detected a slight leftish inclination in some of your betting suggestions. Whilst it is all well and good that The Two Towers do lean in a bit occasionally, one does not want them meeting in the middle.

    A healthy distance is what is required, at all times.

    Atb, and enjoy the election. Will you be at The Finboro? I'm afraid I can't make it.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Suspect Cameron is grappling with a huge decision.

    He simply cannot afford for the whole of tonight's QT programme to be dominated by accusations he'll cut Child Benefit.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if he feels compelled to rule it out on the programme.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeL said:

    Anecdote alert - friend, voted Con in 2010 - hates Cameron - spent last 2 years telling me she's definitely voting UKIP - I've tried persuading her differently - wouldn't listen to me - last saw her a few weeks ago and "100% definitely" voting UKIP.

    Received a brief email from her within the last hour - she's voting Con. No mention of UKIP in her message.

    Con Minority was tipped up here at 9/2 a while ago by some shrewdie

    6.2 on Betfair now for those who missed out
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Been thinking how we might get a BJESUS type result. The numbers only seem to add up if I use Sunil's ELBOW to apply Josias's JISM to Jack's ARSE...

    We should call us pb'ers "The 20-minuters": anybody can join who can tell his ARSE from his ELBOW.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    SNP didn't even get to 60% in Ipsos MORI subsample. Disappointed.

    They are on 53% including undecideds and don't knows !

    They "break the weighting" at this level imo.
    @TheScreamingEagles thought I was underplaying it when I guessed 89%.
    Hosie or Macneil to get a bigger majority in % terms ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    ** CROSSOVER ALERT ** CROSSOVER ALERT **

    Tories now 0.3% ahead in part-ELBOW inc. Ipsos MORI AND all the YouGovs!

    This breaks down to a 0.7% Labour lead when only including YouGov

    and...PB Tories will like this!...

    A 1.4% CON lead in the non-YouGov polls!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Tyson

    "Basically it is a reverse- Cameron is 2.6 which reflects the fact that Ed simply has more coalition possibilities. I personally think that is a value bet, and evens is much closer to the real price."

    Thanks. As for Morrissey-nights at the Hacienda?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sandpit said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sandpit said:

    FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?

    Correct. See the very first post on the very long last thread from @Ishmael_X with a link to the cabinet office working document.
    Basically DC is PM until he resigns, and he's expected to hold on until he can go to the Queen with the name of the next guy. Even if there's a no-confidence vote on day 1 of the new Parliament DC is still PM.
    14 days after the no-confidence vote if no-one has won a vote of confidence then the second election happens.
    I guess it's possible that DC resigns and the Queen calls EM, who would become PM only to lose his own confidence motion and have Parliament dissolved, yet remain as PM during the second election cycle...
    If Cameron loses his first VoC he resigns, and Miliband is ordinarily summoned to be PM.

    Btw, Cameron is under no duty to recommend this (or the Queen to heed such advice), it would just flow naturally that Miliband is now "best placed" (however theoretically) to command the House, since Cameron obviously can't.

    If Miliband then gets a Queen's Speech/VoC through, the pressure's off and we have an interesting new government for the time being.

    If Miliband were to fail, it's open for question whether some other configuration could be tried (if there is still time).

    Failing which, Miliband could (probably would) resign, and the Queen re-appoint Cammo as "caretaker" to lead the country into a second election.
    Under what circumstances would the Queen actually fire Miliband and replace with Cameron? I can't see that happening, we would go into the second election under PM Ed. If Ed resigns he can't call DC as he lost a motion of confidence already.
    The strong argument for Miliband resigning (or being fired if he didn't) would be that an inconclusive election had led to an unviable parliament from which no government could be formed.

    The only course would be another election, in which the protagonists should resume their original positions, i.e. Cameron as incumbent PM.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Schards said:

    Many thanks for all the response which, in the main reinforce what I was thinking
    - that it's his decision
    - he probably only gets one shot at this whereas he can go back to commerce
    - he would probably regret it forever
    - whilst he won't necessarily listen to me, he'd like my consent and support

    Good advice to have a chat with the bank, explain the position and see what they might consider regarding a sabbatical or a deferral of his offer.

    I'm worried if it fails he might be looking for a full time job when the economic environment is not as favourable as now but, hey, YOLO, as Ed might say.

    Thanks everyone, I'll let you know if they make it, I'm travelling up to Glasgow to watch them this weekend at some festival or other

    Good luck to him, whichever path he chooses and however his life works out.
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    MikeL said:

    Suspect Cameron is grappling with a huge decision.

    He simply cannot afford for the whole of tonight's QT programme to be dominated by accusations he'll cut Child Benefit.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if he feels compelled to rule it out on the programme.

    Sticks to the message. Danny authored it and is playing politics. Labour is saying that as well, plus announcing the "conspiracy of more cuts is true!"

    If anything, Clegg will face the most hostility from the audience. And our orange friend is last on...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    taffys said:

    Not much chat about tonight's QT on here. I have read it could be crucial, however...????

    What's the expected audience of non-political floating voters?
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    Labour complaining about the makeup of the QT audience as well.
  • SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    tyson said:

    Schards said:

    Many thanks for all the response which, in the main reinforce what I was thinking
    - that it's his decision
    - he probably only gets one shot at this whereas he can go back to commerce
    - he would probably regret it forever
    - whilst he won't necessarily listen to me, he'd like my consent and support

    Good advice to have a chat with the bank, explain the position and see what they might consider regarding a sabbatical or a deferral of his offer.

    I'm worried if it fails he might be looking for a full time job when the economic environment is not as favourable as now but, hey, YOLO, as Ed might say.

    Thanks everyone, I'll let you know if they make it, I'm travelling up to Glasgow to watch them this weekend at some festival or other

    Obviously if he is a Tory Schards you have to advise him to go into banking.
    Ha!

    He's an English boy living in Paisley, against my advice, he voted Yes in the referendum but he's following my advice in the GE to vote SNP and show wee Dougie the door!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Schards said:

    tyson said:

    Schards said:

    Many thanks for all the response which, in the main reinforce what I was thinking
    - that it's his decision
    - he probably only gets one shot at this whereas he can go back to commerce
    - he would probably regret it forever
    - whilst he won't necessarily listen to me, he'd like my consent and support

    Good advice to have a chat with the bank, explain the position and see what they might consider regarding a sabbatical or a deferral of his offer.

    I'm worried if it fails he might be looking for a full time job when the economic environment is not as favourable as now but, hey, YOLO, as Ed might say.

    Thanks everyone, I'll let you know if they make it, I'm travelling up to Glasgow to watch them this weekend at some festival or other

    Obviously if he is a Tory Schards you have to advise him to go into banking.
    Ha!

    He's an English boy living in Paisley, against my advice, he voted Yes in the referendum but he's following my advice in the GE to vote SNP and show wee Dougie the door!
    TOP MAN !
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Was being sarcastic, but that Con minority looks ok doesn't it? Or is there a more efficient way of backing it (seat bands?)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    Was being sarcastic, but that Con minority looks ok doesn't it? Or is there a more efficient way of backing it (seat bands?)

    Looks fantastic to my mind. Con-LD is far from a done deal even if the numbers are there.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited April 2015
    Daniel said:

    If anything, Clegg will face the most hostility from the audience. And our orange friend is last on...

    Is he? What's the order?

    I can't see any report stating the order.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Schards said:

    tyson said:

    Schards said:

    Many thanks for all the response which, in the main reinforce what I was thinking
    - that it's his decision
    - he probably only gets one shot at this whereas he can go back to commerce
    - he would probably regret it forever
    - whilst he won't necessarily listen to me, he'd like my consent and support

    Good advice to have a chat with the bank, explain the position and see what they might consider regarding a sabbatical or a deferral of his offer.

    I'm worried if it fails he might be looking for a full time job when the economic environment is not as favourable as now but, hey, YOLO, as Ed might say.

    Thanks everyone, I'll let you know if they make it, I'm travelling up to Glasgow to watch them this weekend at some festival or other

    Obviously if he is a Tory Schards you have to advise him to go into banking.
    Ha!

    He's an English boy living in Paisley, against my advice, he voted Yes in the referendum but he's following my advice in the GE to vote SNP and show wee Dougie the door!
    Hi Schards - I wish I was in a band when I was 23 :)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Sandpit said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sandpit said:


    If Cameron loses his first VoC he resigns, and Miliband is ordinarily summoned to be PM.

    Btw, Cameron is under no duty to recommend this (or the Queen to heed such advice), it would just flow naturally that Miliband is now "best placed" (however theoretically) to command the House, since Cameron obviously can't.

    If Miliband then gets a Queen's Speech/VoC through, the pressure's off and we have an interesting new government for the time being.

    If Miliband were to fail, it's open for question whether some other configuration could be tried (if there is still time).

    Failing which, Miliband could (probably would) resign, and the Queen re-appoint Cammo as "caretaker" to lead the country into a second election.

    Under what circumstances would the Queen actually fire Miliband and replace with Cameron? I can't see that happening, we would go into the second election under PM Ed. If Ed resigns he can't call DC as he lost a motion of confidence already.
    I can only see Miliband being called if he can provide 'evidence' or a understanding that he can command the confidence of the house, minority or otherwise.

    It would provide a crisis if HM called Miliband and he failed his first VoC/QS.
    It would a little. However, Miliband only gets to that stage if Labour and the minor parties combine to vote down Cameron, and the minor parties then don't support Miliband....

    Why the F would they do that?

    Miliband wouldn't need evidence, btw. The Queen would be duty bound to call him, since she needs a PM, and Cameron would have gone...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Daniel said:

    Labour complaining about the makeup of the QT audience as well.

    Dave could do a Nigel and accuse the BBC of lefty bias?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2015
    In my opinion Conservative minority would only happen if the Conservatives got 310-323 or if no one can form a government and Cameron runs a minority until a second election. The latter is looking increasingly likely.
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    MikeL said:

    Daniel said:

    If anything, Clegg will face the most hostility from the audience. And our orange friend is last on...

    Is he? What's the order?

    I can't see any report stating the order.
    It was mentioned this morning on SKY.

    Cameron, Miliband, Clegg.
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207

    Who is even aware of the Question Time debate tonight? No one has mentioned it amongst my friends or at work.

    I only remember myself from reading on here.

    Mercifully I will be in the pub.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    Daniel said:

    MikeL said:

    Daniel said:

    If anything, Clegg will face the most hostility from the audience. And our orange friend is last on...

    Is he? What's the order?

    I can't see any report stating the order.
    It was mentioned this morning on SKY.

    Cameron, Miliband, Clegg.
    Surprised the BBC aren't hyping it as it is their big "debate" event of the campaign.
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Panic on the streets of Rotherham, Panic on the streets in Birmingham, I wonder to myself...

    "Child Sexual Exploitation: We force West Midlands Police to release secret report which confirms 'significant similarities' with Rotherham scandal

    Problem profile reveals truth about grooming gangs in region, including 'majority of offenders are typically Asian, of Pakistani origin'"

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/child-sexual-exploitation-force-west-9151006


    Isam- I don't think Morrissey would be too annoyed you pinching his lines. The last I read about him he is a borderline kipper.

    From Irish Blood, English Heart

    "I've been dreaming of a time when
    the English are sick to death
    of Labour, and Tories
    and spit upon the name Oliver Cromwell

    I can forgive Morrissey for being a kipper. "Meat is Murder" is sublime, and "How Soon is Now" fed my teenage angst.
    And the Smiths are Cameron's favourite band.
    Morrissey picks and chooses who is allowed to like his music. He need not worry about me.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    If the result is 36 - 30 with the scotland situation Cameron would nearly have a majority
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    Who is even aware of the Question Time debate tonight? No one has mentioned it amongst my friends or at work.

    I only remember myself from reading on here.

    Mercifully I will be in the pub.
    They might have a big screen TV so you could watch it there :lol:
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    currystar said:

    If the result is 36 - 30 with the scotland situation Cameron would nearly have a majority

    Or without the scotland situation, presumably...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Daniel said:

    MikeL said:

    Daniel said:

    If anything, Clegg will face the most hostility from the audience. And our orange friend is last on...

    Is he? What's the order?

    I can't see any report stating the order.
    It was mentioned this morning on SKY.

    Cameron, Miliband, Clegg.
    Ok - thanks.
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207

    Who is even aware of the Question Time debate tonight? No one has mentioned it amongst my friends or at work.

    I only remember myself from reading on here.

    Mercifully I will be in the pub.
    They might have a big screen TV so you could watch it there :lol:
    My profound... thanks
  • Apologies as this relates to a thread from some days ago but I was on holiday so only just come back to the grey skies...

    On whether the pollsters are picking up UKIP numbers correctly, I think a lot of the problem is lumping UKIP supporters together when there are two distinct types:

    1. "Blue" (i.e. ex-Tory) Kippers. Do not think there is a shy problem there as they generally are quite happy to express their views.

    2. "Red" (i.e. ex-Labour) Kippers. This is where I think the problem is - if you are Northern WWC, and especially older, you do tend to care about whether your perceived social "superiors" may think of you...yes, it is anecdotal, but all the conversations I have had with family who are such suggest they would tell an outsider they would vote Labour when they are in fact likely to vote UKIP.

    On 2, they are particularly wary of telling a political canvasser that they are voting UKIP. Yes, I Nick might be nice to them but their view is, if they say they are voting UKIP, it gets noted down and, who knows, they might get treated the same way those UKIP-supporting foster parents did in Rotherham...

    Personal view is UKIP will probably get to the higher end of their range but the mix will be different i.e. more "Red" kippers than expected but "Blue" ones going back to Conservatives to block Ed. You already have some evidence of that in the Ashcroft polling for by-elections (Clacton / Rochester / Newark UKIP votes not under-estimated but H&M and Barnsley were; cannot find the link but there was a LSE paper on it recently).

    From a betting perspective, I am assuming the following:

    1. On seats, Tories either get a small majority or close (310+) based on: (a) UKIP supporters switch to the Tories in Con/Lab marginals and (b) In close Lab/Con marginals, the Con vote holds firm but enough Labour supporters switch to UKIP to allow the Conservatives to come through;
    2. On individual seats, there is probably good value in some of the close Lab-Con seats that are predominately high WWC / low public sector - contrary to some views on here, I think Ed Balls in in serious danger in M&O, for example
    3. Votes wise, Conservatives to get c. 36%-37%, Labour to possibly do worse than 29%.
    4. UKIP to pick up a couple of Labour seats and to get 8-10 or more in total.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Panic on the streets of Rotherham, Panic on the streets in Birmingham, I wonder to myself...

    "Child Sexual Exploitation: We force West Midlands Police to release secret report which confirms 'significant similarities' with Rotherham scandal

    Problem profile reveals truth about grooming gangs in region, including 'majority of offenders are typically Asian, of Pakistani origin'"

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/child-sexual-exploitation-force-west-9151006


    Isam- I don't think Morrissey would be too annoyed you pinching his lines. The last I read about him he is a borderline kipper.

    From Irish Blood, English Heart

    "I've been dreaming of a time when
    the English are sick to death
    of Labour, and Tories
    and spit upon the name Oliver Cromwell

    I can forgive Morrissey for being a kipper. "Meat is Murder" is sublime, and "How Soon is Now" fed my teenage angst.
    And the Smiths are Cameron's favourite band.
    Morrissey picks and chooses who is allowed to like his music. He need not worry about me.
    Without wishing to sound like I've spent too long at the National Front Disco I'm really surprised UKIP haven't brought the Dolphin Square/Elm House/Rotherham et all grooming gangs to the fore in this election campaign. I think there might be a fair few major party voters who are uncomfortable with the idea of an establishment cover up, and though it might put Farage on dodgy legal ground there could be some traction in bringing these issues to national attention.

    I suppose it's a fine line in terms of sounding a bit conspiracy theorist nutjob and fighting the dark side.
  • Looks like I'm taking part in an exit poll.

    Though not the major one

    @TSEofPB: Interesting. Very interesting email from @PopulusPolls http://t.co/YZuLIe1zBQ
  • Looks like I'm taking part in an exit poll.

    Though not the major one

    @TSEofPB: Interesting. Very interesting email from @PopulusPolls http://t.co/YZuLIe1zBQ

    that's 1 for the Rochester massive.
  • ***** BETTING POST *****

    My penultimate GE Bet of the Week seeks to achieve the near impossible, by identifying a market which might just about appeal to both Bob Sykes as well as JackW (if not quite Mike Smithson also).
    I give you, ta - dah ..... drum roll, Wm. Hills' Conservative 276 - 300 seat band which they have on offer at 2.1 decimal, or 11/10 in old money. This equates to a probability of 47.6%, whereas I make it at least a 60%, shot particularly in the light of those improving polls for the Blues.
    Sidney, their political guru, would only allow me to stake £45 to win £50, but those nice people at Bet365 are offering similar odds of 2.05.
    DYOR.
  • ***** BETTING POST *****

    My penultimate GE Bet of the Week seeks to achieve the near impossible, by identifying a market which might just about appeal to both Bob Sykes as well as JackW (if not quite Mike Smithson also).
    I give you, ta - dah ..... drum roll, Wm. Hills' Conservative 276 - 300 seat band which they have on offer at 2.1 decimal, or 11/10 in old money. This equates to a probability of 47.6%, whereas I make it at least a 60%, shot particularly in the light of those improving polls for the Blues.
    Sidney, their political guru, would only allow me to stake £45 to win £50, but those nice people at Bet365 are offering similar odds of 2.05.
    DYOR.

    Believe it or not, PfP, I'm already on that.

    Are you sure we're not getting too close?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2015
    I keep getting Ads for Money Week in my Twitter feed for articles written by that mentalist who did the hopelessly wrong betting article and thinks LD & Con will get 10 seats between them in Scotland.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 664
    Mori tables show that Labour has lost as many votes to the Greens as the Tories have lost to UKIP. Labour is being killed on its left flank while all its guns are targeted on the right wing. If Labour's attack on the Tories was meant to win over Conservative voters they have failed. Less than 2% of 2010 Tories plan to vote Labour. They still have the Lib Dem left wing but have been bleeding supporters elsewhere. On the Greens they now have 18% of the 18-34 votes.

    Cameron's Tories have been a pretty uninspired group but it looks like they will get a chance of being part of another coalition.




  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    edited April 2015
    ** CROSSOVER ALERT ** CROSSOVER ALERT **

    Cons now 0.3% ahead in part-ELBOW inc. Ipsos MORI AND all the YouGovs!

    This breaks down to a 0.7% Labour lead when only including YouGov

    and...PB Tories will like this!...

    a 1.4% CON lead in the non-YouGov polls!
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    JEO said:

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Anecdotage

    My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.

    She asked him which way he was voting, and he said

    "Well, I quite like the Conservatories"

    The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
    This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
    Is this a function of growing up in an age of austerity? Are the social mores of Islam spreading to non-Muslims through proximity and friendships?
    It's not just about alcohol. This generation has to be incredibly business-minded about things like education and careers from an early age. It's partially (though by no means completely) tuition fees. Generally there just isn't any feeling you can relax, take a few years to find yourself, make the odd mistake, and still end up on a decent career path with a decent home.

    It's also probably partly a backlash against hippyism in the parents' and grandparents' generation. There's a really strong strain of very naive, extreme libertarianism (especially among the nerdy internet types), which I think is largely motivated by a misguided notion of hardheadedness and rationality.


    Also, the rise in the strange phenomenon (that I don't really know the reason for), kids going home at weekends or several times a term. Makes weekends a lot quieter on campuses.




    At Fen Poly we didn't have time to go home at weekends - 8 week terms and the worry you'd be missing out saw to that.

    It was much more common at the campus University I went to for my postgrad work (25 years ago), the hall I was a warden for was less busy at weekends. A lot more seemed to have pre-existing boy/girlfriends to go home for, and of course there was always the washing to do. Oxbridge students didn't have significant others from school days; they were too busy getting three As (in the days when that was a relatively difficult achievement)
  • I have got a little q and a in an upcoming racing post for anyone interested, just 5 questions on the election, think a few other bookies will be taking part too. My best of the election was UKIP over 100 2nd places at 2/1 with Paddies but seems they have completely taken down the market now.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    currystar said:

    If the result is 36 - 30 with the scotland situation Cameron would nearly have a majority

    What's with the "with the Scotland situation"? What's happened Scotland makes it harder for the Tories to get a majority on a given national vote share lead, because Labour are losing the equivalent of a couple of % of their national share just in Scotland, but that will result in zero or few extra seats for Con. So from the point of view of getting Con Maj 36-30 with the SLab collapse must be more like 36-32 without it.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Just been YouGoved and the following question came up:

    Which party is the more natural partner for the Liberal Democrats:

    - Conservative
    - Labour
    - Neither
    - Don't Know
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2015
    Brom said:

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Panic on the streets of Rotherham, Panic on the streets in Birmingham, I wonder to myself...

    "Child Sexual Exploitation: We force West Midlands Police to release secret report which confirms 'significant similarities' with Rotherham scandal

    Problem profile reveals truth about grooming gangs in region, including 'majority of offenders are typically Asian, of Pakistani origin'"

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/child-sexual-exploitation-force-west-9151006


    Isam- I don't think Morrissey would be too annoyed you pinching his lines. The last I read about him he is a borderline kipper.

    From Irish Blood, English Heart

    "I've been dreaming of a time when
    the English are sick to death
    of Labour, and Tories
    and spit upon the name Oliver Cromwell

    I can forgive Morrissey for being a kipper. "Meat is Murder" is sublime, and "How Soon is Now" fed my teenage angst.
    And the Smiths are Cameron's favourite band.
    Morrissey picks and chooses who is allowed to like his music. He need not worry about me.
    Without wishing to sound like I've spent too long at the National Front Disco I'm really surprised UKIP haven't brought the Dolphin Square/Elm House/Rotherham et all grooming gangs to the fore in this election campaign. I think there might be a fair few major party voters who are uncomfortable with the idea of an establishment cover up, and though it might put Farage on dodgy legal ground there could be some traction in bringing these issues to national attention.

    I suppose it's a fine line in terms of sounding a bit conspiracy theorist nutjob and fighting the dark side.
    Their Rotherham candidate made a big point of it. Labour are suing her.

    http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/election-politics/politics-and-election-news/ukip-mep-handed-high-court-papers-as-labour-sues-over-abuse-claims-1-7046534

    ------

    Alison Pearson wrote a good piece tying Mr Miliband's 'islamophobia' law proposal to Rotherham.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11570745/The-price-that-Ed-Miliband-is-prepared-to-pay-to-win-the-Muslim-vote.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Matt Forde (@mattforde)
    30/04/2015 15:42
    One of my favourite moments of the campaign so far. Alex Salmond doing a Yoda impression vine.co/v/e7iO2diIU6j
  • ** CROSSOVER ALERT ** CROSSOVER ALERT **

    Cons now 0.3% ahead in part-ELBOW inc. Ipsos MORI AND all the YouGovs!

    This breaks down to a 0.7% Labour lead when only including YouGov

    and...PB Tories will like this!...

    a 1.4% CON lead in the non-YouGov polls!

    Can we have an ELBOW comparing the phone pollsters vs the online ones.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937

    MattW said:


    I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?

    These days that is likely to be termed, or described as, "rape".

    A drunk woman is deemed unable to consent under Harriet Harman law.

    Bloody patronising of her, of you ask me.

    And it is no defence if the drunk man is equally or more drunk to the woman he hooks up with (or in Harmanland rapes).

    Rape is a serious and horrific offence that shouldn't be equated to drunken sex.
    Agree entirely.

    That is most of the problem in Harmanworld.

    Rape rhetoric undermines the seriousness of the crime.

    Try this one, for example. Both drunk, both consented, she is a victim, he is a rapist.

    http://reason.com/blog/2014/06/04/occidental-expels-student-for-rape-under


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    I have got a little q and a in an upcoming racing post for anyone interested, just 5 questions on the election, think a few other bookies will be taking part too. My best of the election was UKIP over 100 2nd places at 2/1 with Paddies but seems they have completely taken down the market now.

    Farage at Evens has to be the best bet out there at the moment :D
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Artist said:

    In my opinion Conservative minority would only happen if the Conservatives got 310-323 or if no one can form a government and Cameron runs a minority until a second election. The latter is looking increasingly likely.

    The question to ask is which abstentions would you get at a minority Tory govt's QS? LDs possibly, but not necessarily. Unless LD+Tory equals majority, in which case it'll be coalition mk2 regardless of the current protestations, that's not enough. I guess you'd have to be looking at something like Tory minority with C&S type arrangements with UKIP, DUP and LD to have a viable government at all. There don't seem many circumstances where the maths works for that but doesn't produce some sort of coalition.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    ***** BETTING POST *****

    My penultimate GE Bet of the Week seeks to achieve the near impossible, by identifying a market which might just about appeal to both Bob Sykes as well as JackW (if not quite Mike Smithson also).
    I give you, ta - dah ..... drum roll, Wm. Hills' Conservative 276 - 300 seat band which they have on offer at 2.1 decimal, or 11/10 in old money. This equates to a probability of 47.6%, whereas I make it at least a 60%, shot particularly in the light of those improving polls for the Blues.
    Sidney, their political guru, would only allow me to stake £45 to win £50, but those nice people at Bet365 are offering similar odds of 2.05.
    DYOR.

    Good spot, thanks.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    RodCrosby said:

    However, Miliband only gets to that stage if Labour and the minor parties combine to vote down Cameron, and the minor parties then don't support Miliband....

    Why the F would they do that?

    Well, the SNP would vote own Cameron because supporting a Tory government would be unpopular in Scotland, then they might vote down Miliband because he wasn't offering the concessions they thought they deserved.

    OK, the latter isn't hugely likely as the SNP would probably want to preserve the parliamentary situation where they had a lot of theoretical leverage, but you never know, especially if abstaining was enough to block Miliband and they didn't actually have to vote against.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    MikeL said:

    Anecdote alert - friend, voted Con in 2010 - hates Cameron - spent last 2 years telling me she's definitely voting UKIP - I've tried persuading her differently - wouldn't listen to me - last saw her a few weeks ago and "100% definitely" voting UKIP.

    Received a brief email from her within the last hour - she's voting Con. No mention of UKIP in her message.

    I recognise that.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    I have got a little q and a in an upcoming racing post for anyone interested, just 5 questions on the election, think a few other bookies will be taking part too. My best of the election was UKIP over 100 2nd places at 2/1 with Paddies but seems they have completely taken down the market now.

    Farage at Evens has to be the best bet out there at the moment :D
    Coral Ukip over 2.5 at 5/6
This discussion has been closed.