MM - off topic but as someone on the front line, do you continue to see the Tories winning Torbay and which way (if either way) has this seat been trending of late?
Picture this.... Cameron resigns and tells HMQ to summon Miliband, who then lies to HMQ that he has the votes to pass a QS which is voted down to her and the nations shame. Miliband refuses to resign and powers on in minority leading HMQ to set out from Buckingham Palace in full regalia chased and cheered by a jubilant nation. Meanwhile in the HoC, word reaches PM Miliband that the Queen has been activated and he scarpers along with Balls, Salmond and Lucas leaving the leader of the SDLP to field questions. Black Rod hammers upon the door which is opened, after a scuffle, by Boris Johnson who invites her Majesty in. ''Gentleman and Ladies' she announces, 'you may return to your constituencies, your services are no longer required'. Adding, with a look around the chamber that 'I see all the birds have flown'
FPT I have finally got round to analysing the recent COMRES top 50 Con/Lab marginals and comparing their average shares to a) the latest Ashcroft average shares and b) my switching model average shares for these 50 seats
A reasonable fit except for UKIP which is lower in the COMRES poll. I have done a small tweak to the UKIP switching assumptions and my model is now showing:
James Chapman (Mail)@jameschappers·2 mins2 minutes ago .@TheEconomist, which backed Labour in 2001 and 2005, announces it is urging readers to vote #Conservative
I'm genuinely suprised - I thought they were going to withhold an endorsement given how critical they have been of the Conservative economic policy and record.
Picture this.... Cameron resigns and tells HMQ to summon Miliband, who then lies to HMQ that he has the votes to pass a QS which is voted down to her and the nations shame. Miliband refuses to resign and powers on in minority leading HMQ to set out from Buckingham Palace in full regalia chased and cheered by a jubilant nation. Meanwhile in the HoC, word reaches PM Miliband that the Queen has been activated and he scarpers along with Balls, Salmond and Lucas leaving the leader of the SDLP to field questions. Black Rod hammers upon the door which is opened, after a scuffle, by Boris Johnson who invites her Majesty in. ''Gentleman and Ladies' she announces, 'you may return to your constituencies, your services are no longer required'. Adding, with a look around the chamber that 'I see all the birds have flown'
So, you're predicating the return to absolute Monarchy after May 7th?
Clearly a few toss-ups in that list, but I make it four (incl 3 out of 4 Scottish MPs + Farage) appear very unlikely to be returned and by my estimation and four definitely will be (incl both Clegg and Balls). So I'll split the remaining 2 seats as being one apiece, and therefore from the point of view of the bet, I reckon a total of 5 from this list of ten won't make it back, worth 25 points, so were I to wager, I would be a very modest SELLER at Sporting's 27 points, but certainly not sufficiently so as to tempt me to actually place a bet.
Is Farage really in the "very unlikely" camp?
Perhaps not very unlikely, but unlikely nonetheless, at least imho.
Picture this part 2.... The Con/DUP coalition proceeds apace for a year until Robertson overplays his hand and threatens to bring it down by not voting through the budget. Cameron holds firm and refuses to buckle, surely he has so,etching up his sleeve? On the day of the vote, all talk in the house is of the fall of the government and new Labour Leader Jon Cruddas stands ready to take the helm. As the division is called the whooping dies on Labour and the DUPs lips as from the shadows Gerry Adams leads the 4 shinners through the yes lobby and disappears without a word,,,,,
FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?
Correct. See the very first post on the very long last thread from @Ishmael_X with a link to the cabinet office working document. Basically DC is PM until he resigns, and he's expected to hold on until he can go to the Queen with the name of the next guy. Even if there's a no-confidence vote on day 1 of the new Parliament DC is still PM. 14 days after the no-confidence vote if no-one has won a vote of confidence then the second election happens. I guess it's possible that DC resigns and the Queen calls EM, who would become PM only to lose his own confidence motion and have Parliament dissolved, yet remain as PM during the second election cycle...
Picture this.... Cameron resigns and tells HMQ to summon Miliband, who then lies to HMQ that he has the votes to pass a QS which is voted down to her and the nations shame. Miliband refuses to resign and powers on in minority leading HMQ to set out from Buckingham Palace in full regalia chased and cheered by a jubilant nation. Meanwhile in the HoC, word reaches PM Miliband that the Queen has been activated and he scarpers along with Balls, Salmond and Lucas leaving the leader of the SDLP to field questions. Black Rod hammers upon the door which is opened, after a scuffle, by Boris Johnson who invites her Majesty in. ''Gentleman and Ladies' she announces, 'you may return to your constituencies, your services are no longer required'. Adding, with a look around the chamber that 'I see all the birds have flown'
So, you're predicating the return to absolute Monarchy after May 7th?
Picture this part 2.... The Con/DUP coalition proceeds apace for a year until Robertson overplays his hand and threatens to bring it down by not voting through the budget. Cameron holds firm and refuses to buckle, surely he has so,etching up his sleeve? On the day of the vote, all talk in the house is of the fall of the government and new Labour Leader Jon Cruddas stands ready to take the helm. As the division is called the whooping dies on Labour and the DUPs lips as from the shadows Gerry Adams leads the 4 shinners through the yes lobby and disappears without a word,,,,,
And stranger still, for ever afterwards no Sinn Fein member would speak of or acknowledge what occurred. A perennial mystery
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Totally fking boring the lot of them.
I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?
Nah up at 5.30 a.m to go rowing or spend an hour in the gym.
James Chapman (Mail)@jameschappers·2 mins2 minutes ago .@TheEconomist, which backed Labour in 2001 and 2005, announces it is urging readers to vote #Conservative
Who did they back in 2010? LDs?
Tories I think.
FT & Evening Standard are the only endorsements that might surprise, although I suspect they'll both go Blue (however given '92 analogies are all the rage the FT did back Kinnock, so who knows?!).
The FT really backed Kinnock in 1992? I wonder how many FT readers voted for him?
FPT I have finally got round to analysing the recent COMRES top 50 Con/Lab marginals and comparing their average shares to a) the latest Ashcroft average shares and b) my switching model average shares for these 50 seats
A reasonable fit except for UKIP which is lower in the COMRES poll. I have done a small tweak to the UKIP switching assumptions and my model is now showing:
Clearly a few toss-ups in that list, but I make it four (incl 3 out of 4 Scottish MPs + Farage) appear very unlikely to be returned and by my estimation and four definitely will be (incl both Clegg and Balls). So I'll split the remaining 2 seats as being one apiece, and therefore from the point of view of the bet, I reckon a total of 5 from this list of ten won't make it back, worth 25 points, so were I to wager, I would be a very modest SELLER at Sporting's 27 points, but certainly not sufficiently so as to tempt me to actually place a bet.
That was exactly my reasoning, PfP.
There are four near certain losers and the rest range from probable to near certain winners. 25 points is the most likely outcome, so a sell but with so little value in it that it ain't worth bothering.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Totally fking boring the lot of them.
I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?
Nah up at 5.30 a.m to go rowing or spend an hour in the gym.
A disgrace to the family.
Up at 11.30, walk to Union Bar and drink until 2.30, home via the offy for drink and fags, back to room for both, pausing to watch countdown at 4.30. Eat something if you could be bothered, have sex, usually but not exclusively with your current partner of randomly generated gender, down to the bar for 8 at opening to drink until closing, lock in behind the shutters till 2, sex with someone or get high on whatever was available, sleep, rinse, repeat.
"All depends on the UKIP vote, if a proportion of that swings late to the Conservatives Soubry could sneak it, my impression last weekend is though the vast majority of the UKIP support will stay solid, Nick by less than 1000, maybe 500 but Conservatives to hold Amber Valley well worth a punt, UKIP support in that seat much more ex-Labour."
Do you have a Batmobile? You seem to get round a vast number of constituencies and then report on their expected majorities to within a few hundred. I went round a constituency the other day and wouldn't have a clue even which party was winning.
Talk to the right people you will get a fair picture, far better than the Lord Ashcroft polls in my opinion, especially if you know the area. In Broxtowe I don't know it that well not a Notts man, Derbyshire is my area but I was asked to have a look.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Totally fking boring the lot of them.
I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?
Nah up at 5.30 a.m to go rowing or spend an hour in the gym.
A disgrace to the family.
Up at 11.30, walk to Union Bar and drink until 2.30, home via the offy for drink and fags, back to room for both, pausing to watch countdown at 4.30. Eat something if you could be bothered, have sex, usually but not exclusively with your current partner of randomly generated gender, down to the bar for 8 at opening to drink until closing, lock in behind the shutters till 2, sex with someone or get high on whatever was available, sleep, rinse, repeat.
Any de traction from the pattern is unacceptable.
Pleased to note that you found the time for a rinse.
Oooh a spreadsheets dig!! You fiend you with your vicious tongue
I'll take that as a no, you are not canvassing.
I'm not.. so what?!
Everyone who does says the same thing anyway, and if I were canvassing in Hornchurch and Upminster, what possible use would that be to the national picture? #chocolateteapots
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Totally fking boring the lot of them.
I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?
Nah up at 5.30 a.m to go rowing or spend an hour in the gym.
A disgrace to the family.
Up at 11.30, walk to Union Bar and drink until 2.30, home via the offy for drink and fags, back to room for both, pausing to watch countdown at 4.30. Eat something if you could be bothered, have sex, usually but not exclusively with your current partner of randomly generated gender, down to the bar for 8 at opening to drink until closing, lock in behind the shutters till 2, sex with someone or get high on whatever was available, sleep, rinse, repeat.
Any de traction from the pattern is unacceptable.
I got lectures down to 8 hours a week ( French and German degree ) and then spent the rest of the time doing sweet sod all or whatever took my fancy. Now they all worry about their Uni fees. David Willetts killed off youth.
FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?
It's going to make Florida look tame.
My conversation in the pub the other night with an American friend was that this election is going to be our version of Bush vs Gore.
I know this isn't very scientific but it's pretty obvious from reading this site that Tory supporters are less likely to work than Labour or Lib Dem ones.
Come on here in the evening and you get a mix. During the day it's reasonably solid blue. so unless the Blues are night shift workers which I doubt it's pretty clear they're either unemployed retired or of independent means.
So when phone pollsters call in working hours they are more likely to get a Tory than anyone else. The internet polls by contrast can be filled in during the evening when they'll get a mix
Having previously reported that the two ladies of the house have not put their X next to Mr Ed and Labour for the first time in living memory, I'm told my father-in-law and sister-in-law have also kept their X to themselves. Again, lifelong Labour.
Meanwhile in the HoC, word reaches PM Miliband that the Queen has been activated and he scarpers along with Balls, Salmond and Lucas leaving the leader of the SDLP to field questions.
Nah, Miliband would just tell the Queen that if she interfered he'd reveal the actual parentage of Princes Andrew, Edward, and Harry, the paternity of Tom Parker Bowles, and possibly he might even mention Tony Slattery.
Standing up to powerful vested interests, see? Hell yes!
Clearly a few toss-ups in that list, but I make it four (incl 3 out of 4 Scottish MPs + Farage) appear very unlikely to be returned and by my estimation and four definitely will be (incl both Clegg and Balls). So I'll split the remaining 2 seats as being one apiece, and therefore from the point of view of the bet, I reckon a total of 5 from this list of ten won't make it back, worth 25 points, so were I to wager, I would be a very modest SELLER at Sporting's 27 points, but certainly not sufficiently so as to tempt me to actually place a bet.
That was exactly my reasoning, PfP.
There are four near certain losers and the rest range from probable to near certain winners. 25 points is the most likely outcome, so a sell but with so little value in it that it ain't worth bothering.
There are much better bets out there.
We really must stop appearing to agree like this on everything PtP. There are at least two aspects (not wishing to be too specific you understand) on which I am aware that we disagree violently.
James Chapman (Mail)@jameschappers·2 mins2 minutes ago .@TheEconomist, which backed Labour in 2001 and 2005, announces it is urging readers to vote #Conservative
I'm genuinely suprised - I thought they were going to withhold an endorsement given how critical they have been of the Conservative economic policy and record.
They've been 50:50 between outright praise and face-palming frustration.
Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!
Greenwich Mean Time @GreenwichMean · Apr 18 It's 10:58pm. Immediately pointing it out when someone writes 'your' instead of 'you're' is the closest you get to sex
FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?
It's going to make Florida look tame.
My conversation in the pub the other night with an American friend was that this election is going to be our version of Bush vs Gore.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Totally fking boring the lot of them.
I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?
Nah up at 5.30 a.m to go rowing or spend an hour in the gym.
A disgrace to the family.
Up at 11.30, walk to Union Bar and drink until 2.30, home via the offy for drink and fags, back to room for both, pausing to watch countdown at 4.30. Eat something if you could be bothered, have sex, usually but not exclusively with your current partner of randomly generated gender, down to the bar for 8 at opening to drink until closing, lock in behind the shutters till 2, sex with someone or get high on whatever was available, sleep, rinse, repeat.
Any de traction from the pattern is unacceptable.
You guys were so boring. Mrs J's university had an armed uprising during one of the military coups, with students walking around the campus with guns, ;-)
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Totally fking boring the lot of them.
I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?
Nah up at 5.30 a.m to go rowing or spend an hour in the gym.
A disgrace to the family.
Up at 11.30, walk to Union Bar and drink until 2.30, home via the offy for drink and fags, back to room for both, pausing to watch countdown at 4.30. Eat something if you could be bothered, have sex, usually but not exclusively with your current partner of randomly generated gender, down to the bar for 8 at opening to drink until closing, lock in behind the shutters till 2, sex with someone or get high on whatever was available, sleep, rinse, repeat.
Any de traction from the pattern is unacceptable.
I got lectures down to 8 hours a week ( French and German degree ) and then spent the rest of the time doing sweet sod all or whatever took my fancy. Now they all worry about their Uni fees. David Willetts killed off youth.
6 hours a week (philosophy) bunked most of those and borrowed notes from a girl on the course who thought I was cute (I'm not), crammed and bluffed my finals, out with a Desmond and 3 years ruin of my body and about 3k of debt, took a job in insurance, never used the degree but taught me how to party and the wonders of recreational drugs, hard drinking and a very open mind to matters sexual and gender.
I know this isn't very scientific but it's pretty obvious from reading this site that Tory supporters are less likely to work than Labour or Lib Dem ones.
Come on here in the evening and you get a mix. During the day it's reasonably solid blue. so unless the Blues are night shift workers which I doubt it's pretty clear they're either unemployed retired or of independent means.
So when phone pollsters call in working hours they are more likely to get a Tory than anyone else. The internet polls by contrast can be filled in during the evening when they'll get a mix
I'm a tory and I'm at work. Maybe tories disproportionately have jobs where posting on here is dooable
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Totally fking boring the lot of them.
I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?
Nah up at 5.30 a.m to go rowing or spend an hour in the gym.
A disgrace to the family.
Up at 11.30, walk to Union Bar and drink until 2.30, home via the offy for drink and fags, back to room for both, pausing to watch countdown at 4.30. Eat something if you could be bothered, have sex, usually but not exclusively with your current partner of randomly generated gender, down to the bar for 8 at opening to drink until closing, lock in behind the shutters till 2, sex with someone or get high on whatever was available, sleep, rinse, repeat.
Any de traction from the pattern is unacceptable.
You guys were so boring. Mrs J's university had an armed uprising during one of the military coups, with students walking around the campus with guns, ;-)
Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!
But no-one seems to have picked OGH up on "So if you bought at 32 you’d make money provided that four on the list failed." which looks completely wrong - you'd need seven to fail...
*cough*
Typos generally don't bother me one bit - but especially seeing as SPIN is sponsoring PB's election coverage, I think it is important that Mike corrects this error.
Pong, you are right and the header (Mike?) is wrong. I think this was described on the previous thread as being 10 points per seat, which would explain the way the commentary is written, but as it is written now and on SPIN's website, you need 7 losers to win the buy at 32.
FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?
It's going to make Florida look tame.
My conversation in the pub the other night with an American friend was that this election is going to be our version of Bush vs Gore.
The left are going to try and steal it?
The right are going to declare victory in defiance of the constitutional precedents and then insist that whichever new precedent they have invented holds sway (probably the unacceptability of a party with fewer seats or votes, which ever suits the facts, forming a government).
As in Florida, it's harder to turn the narrative round once a winner has been declared, regardless of the facts... and it's pretty clear which side has the bigger media megaphone for its narrative.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Totally fking boring the lot of them.
I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?
Nah up at 5.30 a.m to go rowing or spend an hour in the gym.
A disgrace to the family.
Up at 11.30, walk to Union Bar and drink until 2.30, home via the offy for drink and fags, back to room for both, pausing to watch countdown at 4.30. Eat something if you could be bothered, have sex, usually but not exclusively with your current partner of randomly generated gender, down to the bar for 8 at opening to drink until closing, lock in behind the shutters till 2, sex with someone or get high on whatever was available, sleep, rinse, repeat.
Any de traction from the pattern is unacceptable.
You guys were so boring. Mrs J's university had an armed uprising during one of the military coups, with students walking around the campus with guns, ;-)
"never used the degree but taught me how to party and the wonders of recreational drugs, hard drinking and a very open mind to matters sexual and gender."
Much underrated virtues. I always thought the blue rinses who wanted universities to cut their numbers to 20 or 25% were missing the point. People who have spent three years as you've described are far less likely to waste their energy reading the Sun driving white vans or robbing a fish and chip shops.
Clearly a few toss-ups in that list, but I make it four (incl 3 out of 4 Scottish MPs + Farage) appear very unlikely to be returned and by my estimation and four definitely will be (incl both Clegg and Balls). So I'll split the remaining 2 seats as being one apiece, and therefore from the point of view of the bet, I reckon a total of 5 from this list of ten won't make it back, worth 25 points, so were I to wager, I would be a very modest SELLER at Sporting's 27 points, but certainly not sufficiently so as to tempt me to actually place a bet.
That was exactly my reasoning, PfP.
There are four near certain losers and the rest range from probable to near certain winners. 25 points is the most likely outcome, so a sell but with so little value in it that it ain't worth bothering.
There are much better bets out there.
We really must stop appearing to agree like this on everything PtP. There are at least two aspects (not wishing to be too specific you understand) on which I am aware that we disagree violently.
Violently, PfP?
Amicably, I would hope. We're getting a bit old for fisticuffs. ;-)
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
As already mentioned, PB currently has an anti-electoral-fraud banner ad from Birmingham city council. (I assume the rest of you are spared this treat.) Voter shenanigans have hardly been mentioned during this campaign but there's quite a bit of proactive gubbins going on behind the scenes.
FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?
It's going to make Florida look tame.
My conversation in the pub the other night with an American friend was that this election is going to be our version of Bush vs Gore.
The left are going to try and steal it?
Ha ha! More like it'll take months to work out what actually happened!
@MikeK- happy birthday to you young man. I'm really impressed that you are keeping with social media. I've tried to get my mum internet savvy... infuriating.
BTW- out of curiosity who is our second oldest pb poster- we know Jack W (the father of pbCOM) is about 123. Any others out there who can outbid MikeK's 81 years? And who is the youngest? Have we got any budding William Hague's prowling around?
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
A life is full of regrets, what ifs and maybes. I can't imagine he will regret trying to become a pop star (although I doubt there is real money in it any more - there is a reason why bands tour now far more than they used to) but he may regret not trying to become one..
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
I would advise him to get even just two years under his belt in investment banking. He can then give it a shot to follow his dreams. That would make him look like he's been in the industry long enough to be considered to have "experience" and will allow him to go back at a later point. It also means he can set aside a bit more money to support the band in touring.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
Give up the job and follow his dreams
Seconded. He may end up worse off (and he might not even if the band fails - restarting a career at 26 is not a big deal), but that's nothing compared to a life as a corporate drone wondering "what if".
@MikeK- happy birthday to you young man. I'm really impressed that you are keeping with social media. I've tried to get my mum internet savvy... infuriating.
BTW- out of curiosity who is our second oldest pb poster- we know Jack W (the father of pbCOM) is about 123. Any others out there who can outbid MikeK's 81 years? And who is the youngest? Have we got any budding William Hague's prowling around?
Mental age? I'm the youngest by milez. Nice bit of head patting btw. Nice to see the silver brigade doing more than sucking werthers original isn't it? :-D
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
If he spends a few months or a couple years in the band and it doesn't pan out, how hard would it be to get back into the other career track?
A month ago Ed Miliband was 2.6 on Betfair to be PM, now he is 1.63
What's Cameron?
Basically it is a reverse- Cameron is 2.6 which reflects the fact that Ed simply has more coalition possibilities. I personally think that is a value bet, and evens is much closer to the real price.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
Dreams. He can always get another job in investment banking or whatever.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
With due respect, what's it to do with you? His decision, his bed to lie in.
I agree. My mother backed my eldest brother's dream to be a musician - it didn't last but it got it out of his system and didn't hold him back. There's a certain cache to those who've done something off-piste before joining the rat race.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
Give up the job and follow his dreams
Seconded. He may end up worse off (and he might not even if the band fails - restarting a career at 26 is not a big deal), but that's nothing compared to a life as a corporate drone wondering "what if".
Very low 2010 Lab retention with Ipsos Mori (63%) and some Lab -> Con switching.
There's no pattern to Labour's fall across pollsters. Survation has Lab -> UKIP, ICM has Conservatives ahead amongst 2010 Lib Dems, Ashcroft has Lab -> Greens..
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Is this a function of growing up in an age of austerity? Are the social mores of Islam spreading to non-Muslims through proximity and friendships?
Depends on how you look at it. I know plenty if students through friends and youngsters from my pub. They like a drink, but money is an issue. Drinking us done at home more and more through the fraudulently cheap supermarket route.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Is this a function of growing up in an age of austerity? Are the social mores of Islam spreading to non-Muslims through proximity and friendships?
No. It's social media and gaming taking up so much time. When I were a lad: After spending 3 hours kicking a ball against the side of a warehouse, the prospect of half a bottle of vodka swiped from a mate's parents' drinks cabinet was extremely appealing. Just to stave off the boredom if nothing else.
Not the same any more...
[Also, the first half of Stereotomy's post after this one rings very true]
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Is this a function of growing up in an age of austerity? Are the social mores of Islam spreading to non-Muslims through proximity and friendships?
It's not just about alcohol. This generation has to be incredibly business-minded about things like education and careers from an early age. It's partially (though by no means completely) tuition fees. Generally there just isn't any feeling you can relax, take a few years to find yourself, make the odd mistake, and still end up on a decent career path with a decent home.
It's also probably partly a backlash against hippyism in the parents' and grandparents' generation. There's a really strong strain of very naive, extreme libertarianism (especially among the nerdy internet types), which I think is largely motivated by a misguided notion of hardheadedness and rationality.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
In my view - as his father it is for you to support him in making his own decision and in being comfortable about it, not to make it for him (not that you appear to be, but worth highlighting.) As such make sure that he's genuinely and realistically thought through the different options - and what his thoughts/plans are in various different success / failure scenarios. Other than that - support the decision he makes for himself. (IMVHO)
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
Give up the job and follow his dreams
Ensure he has a good reference from the Investment Bank, and the he keeps in contact with them (would they want his band to play a gig for their annual do?) so that he can try and manage the downside risk if/when the band collapses in a few years time.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
Go with the dream. But he should tell the bank why he is declining their offer.They might look more kindly on him if he tries, fails, and re-applies in a couple of years.
Unless, that is, he makes some really, really bad records!
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
If he spends a few months or a couple years in the band and it doesn't pan out, how hard would it be to get back into the other career track?
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
That is such a no brainer Schards. Sounds like a talented young man- absolutely support him 100% in his band. Life's too short to miss opportunities to fulfil your real passions. How many people get the opportunity to do that?
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Is this a function of growing up in an age of austerity? Are the social mores of Islam spreading to non-Muslims through proximity and friendships?
It's not just about alcohol. This generation has to be incredibly business-minded about things like education and careers from an early age. It's partially (though by no means completely) tuition fees. Generally there just isn't any feeling you can relax, take a few years to find yourself, make the odd mistake, and still end up on a decent career path with a decent home.
It's also probably partly a backlash against hippyism in the parents' and grandparents' generation. There's a really strong strain of very naive, extreme libertarianism (especially among the nerdy internet types), which I think is largely motivated by a misguided notion of hardheadedness and rationality.
In doing a four years Physics masters, my son has had eight sets of exams and about 40 marked assignments that contribute to the degree awarded... I had three and one respectively 35 years ago... He doesn't have time to play hard like we used to...
Do people on this site really believe that the SNP will produce a clean sweep in the 59 Scottish seats? would anyone like to have a charity bet (i.e they believe they will, I believe they won't). Loser to pay £50 to the charity of the winner's choice. Must be a UK wide charity (not a Scottish only or English only one) and not a religious charity.
First person to accept publicly on PB is on (one bet only). My nominated charity (should I win) is the Cure Parkinsons Trust, which supports research done into Parkinsons disease. Anyone who wants to support the charity but not take the bet can go onto www.justgiving.com/Anna-Monk1
Please accept this post in the sporting spirit in which it was intended, even if you have disagreed with previous posts that I have made, and please consider a donation to this worthy charity even if you don't want to bet.
Most amusing...none of you cybernats are willing to back up all your shouting by risking your own money! You only want to spend money if it's someone else's, I presume
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Could I ask some advice from the PB masses?
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
If he spends a few months or a couple years in the band and it doesn't pan out, how hard would it be to get back into the other career track?
Do people on this site really believe that the SNP will produce a clean sweep in the 59 Scottish seats? would anyone like to have a charity bet (i.e they believe they will, I believe they won't). Loser to pay £50 to the charity of the winner's choice. Must be a UK wide charity (not a Scottish only or English only one) and not a religious charity.
First person to accept publicly on PB is on (one bet only). My nominated charity (should I win) is the Cure Parkinsons Trust, which supports research done into Parkinsons disease. Anyone who wants to support the charity but not take the bet can go onto www.justgiving.com/Anna-Monk1
Please accept this post in the sporting spirit in which it was intended, even if you have disagreed with previous posts that I have made, and please consider a donation to this worthy charity even if you don't want to bet.
Most amusing...none of you cybernats are willing to back up all your shouting by risking your own money! You only want to spend money if it's someone else's, I presume
I did give a reasoned reply pointing out the odds were not at all attractive.
My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.
She asked him which way he was voting, and he said
"Well, I quite like the Conservatories"
The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
This is absolutely true from my observation. A sober generation arises. Compared to my cohort they are saints.
Is this a function of growing up in an age of austerity? Are the social mores of Islam spreading to non-Muslims through proximity and friendships?
It's not just about alcohol. This generation has to be incredibly business-minded about things like education and careers from an early age. It's partially (though by no means completely) tuition fees. Generally there just isn't any feeling you can relax, take a few years to find yourself, make the odd mistake, and still end up on a decent career path with a decent home.
It's also probably partly a backlash against hippyism in the parents' and grandparents' generation. There's a really strong strain of very naive, extreme libertarianism (especially among the nerdy internet types), which I think is largely motivated by a misguided notion of hardheadedness and rationality.
This is a good post.
There are actually a number of things going on.
Given grade inflation and also the realization that no uni = very difficult life ahead, kids are much more motivated all the way through school. Same with graduate job market, no 2:1, don't even apply. Means there is certainly more focus on at least getting that 2:1
Throw into that cost.
Fees...not tuition fees, but these days halls are very very expensive at many universities, plus for the gym and clubs etc. Uni life outside a few elite places, is not the discounted lifestyle it used to be. I would say probably there is a correlation between how crap a uni is and how expensive all these extras are. Students are a cash cow to be milked in many places.
SU jacking up prices to discourage binge drinking (they are no longer the place of the sub £1 point, in fact many are not cheap at all). Much more "preloading / staying in " with booze from the supermarket.
Also, the rise in the strange phenomenon (that I don't really know the reason for), kids going home at weekends or several times a term. Makes weekends a lot quieter on campuses.
Comments
Mike-too much information. You really do not have to disclose to the world your sexual preferences.
Cameron resigns and tells HMQ to summon Miliband, who then lies to HMQ that he has the votes to pass a QS which is voted down to her and the nations shame. Miliband refuses to resign and powers on in minority leading HMQ to set out from Buckingham Palace in full regalia chased and cheered by a jubilant nation.
Meanwhile in the HoC, word reaches PM Miliband that the Queen has been activated and he scarpers along with Balls, Salmond and Lucas leaving the leader of the SDLP to field questions.
Black Rod hammers upon the door which is opened, after a scuffle, by Boris Johnson who invites her Majesty in.
''Gentleman and Ladies' she announces, 'you may return to your constituencies, your services are no longer required'. Adding, with a look around the chamber that 'I see all the birds have flown'
The Con/DUP coalition proceeds apace for a year until Robertson overplays his hand and threatens to bring it down by not voting through the budget. Cameron holds firm and refuses to buckle, surely he has so,etching up his sleeve?
On the day of the vote, all talk in the house is of the fall of the government and new Labour Leader Jon Cruddas stands ready to take the helm. As the division is called the whooping dies on Labour and the DUPs lips as from the shadows Gerry Adams leads the 4 shinners through the yes lobby and disappears without a word,,,,,
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/tables-political-monitor-april-2015.pdf
Basically DC is PM until he resigns, and he's expected to hold on until he can go to the Queen with the name of the next guy. Even if there's a no-confidence vote on day 1 of the new Parliament DC is still PM.
14 days after the no-confidence vote if no-one has won a vote of confidence then the second election happens.
I guess it's possible that DC resigns and the Queen calls EM, who would become PM only to lose his own confidence motion and have Parliament dissolved, yet remain as PM during the second election cycle...
I nag Brooke junior about going out and getting pissed at Uni and waking up with strange women whose names he can't remember - but can I get him to do it ?
Nah up at 5.30 a.m to go rowing or spend an hour in the gym.
A disgrace to the family.
I wonder how many FT readers voted for him?
There are four near certain losers and the rest range from probable to near certain winners. 25 points is the most likely outcome, so a sell but with so little value in it that it ain't worth bothering.
There are much better bets out there.
Any de traction from the pattern is unacceptable.
BARF
Everyone who does says the same thing anyway, and if I were canvassing in Hornchurch and Upminster, what possible use would that be to the national picture? #chocolateteapots
I know this isn't very scientific but it's pretty obvious from reading this site that Tory supporters are less likely to work than Labour or Lib Dem ones.
Come on here in the evening and you get a mix. During the day it's reasonably solid blue. so unless the Blues are night shift workers which I doubt it's pretty clear they're either unemployed retired or of independent means.
So when phone pollsters call in working hours they are more likely to get a Tory than anyone else. The internet polls by contrast can be filled in during the evening when they'll get a mix
Having previously reported that the two ladies of the house have not put their X next to Mr Ed and Labour for the first time in living memory, I'm told my father-in-law and sister-in-law have also kept their X to themselves. Again, lifelong Labour.
Standing up to powerful vested interests, see? Hell yes!
There are at least two aspects (not wishing to be too specific you understand) on which I am aware that we disagree violently.
Greenwich Mean Time @GreenwichMean
· Apr 18
It's 10:58pm. Immediately pointing it out when someone writes 'your' instead of 'you're' is the closest you get to sex
A fool and his money are easily parted.. I'm on, but who is the fool? Joe Coral or moi?
Another sign of things going well.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-32531758?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central
I think this was described on the previous thread as being 10 points per seat, which would explain the way the commentary is written, but as it is written now and on SPIN's website, you need 7 losers to win the buy at 32.
As in Florida, it's harder to turn the narrative round once a winner has been declared, regardless of the facts... and it's pretty clear which side has the bigger media megaphone for its narrative.
The great unknown of this election. People who would show up as labour supporters on a poll, but ain't gonna vote for ed.
"lovely bit of Gorgonzola, Mr. Putin"
"never used the degree but taught me how to party and the wonders of recreational drugs, hard drinking and a very open mind to matters sexual and gender."
Much underrated virtues. I always thought the blue rinses who wanted universities to cut their numbers to 20 or 25% were missing the point. People who have spent three years as you've described are far less likely to waste their energy reading the Sun driving white vans or robbing a fish and chip shops.
Amicably, I would hope. We're getting a bit old for fisticuffs. ;-)
My eldest son is 23 and left Uni a year ago, he's got a one year contract with an investment bank and they've offered to make it permanent. He's told me he's turning it down as the band he joined at uni are doing well, have been signed up with an agency and are getting so many gigs/tours he will be unlikely to hold the full time job much longer. If he takes full time he has to give 3 months notice.
His band are good and there is definitely a buzz about them but how many pop musicians make a full time career? 1/1000?
My gut feeling is I can't deny him following his dream but am worried he won't thank me later if it all peters out.
So what would you do and what would you advise?
If mods feel this isn't appropriate for this site, feel free to delete but the only other site I post regularly on (Reading FC) he does too.
"Was it in France or the UK or you don't remember?"
It was Southport
BTW- out of curiosity who is our second oldest pb poster- we know Jack W (the father of pbCOM) is about 123. Any others out there who can outbid MikeK's 81 years?
And who is the youngest? Have we got any budding William Hague's prowling around?
A month ago Ed Miliband was 2.6 on Betfair to be PM, now he is 1.63
What's Cameron?
Just my humble opinion.
The Ipsos Mori tables. The Conservatives lead by 34/30 among all voters and by 39/31 in England.
Nice bit of head patting btw. Nice to see the silver brigade doing more than sucking werthers original isn't it? :-D
Didn't manage to bump into you there, I think I preferred Bradford away all things considered.
Good luck to him either way.
"Give up the job and follow his dreams"
Without a doubt.
There's no pattern to Labour's fall across pollsters. Survation has Lab -> UKIP, ICM has Conservatives ahead amongst 2010 Lib Dems, Ashcroft has Lab -> Greens..
Not the same any more...
[Also, the first half of Stereotomy's post after this one rings very true]
It's also probably partly a backlash against hippyism in the parents' and grandparents' generation. There's a really strong strain of very naive, extreme libertarianism (especially among the nerdy internet types), which I think is largely motivated by a misguided notion of hardheadedness and rationality.
The career of each is likely to be pretty short and I'd suggest the financial rewards are more certain in the bank than in music!!!
But money isn't everything [yes, I am an IFA now]
Would they let him have a year's sabbatical before going perm?
"Child Sexual Exploitation: We force West Midlands Police to release secret report which confirms 'significant similarities' with Rotherham scandal
Problem profile reveals truth about grooming gangs in region, including 'majority of offenders are typically Asian, of Pakistani origin'"
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/child-sexual-exploitation-force-west-9151006
Unless, that is, he makes some really, really bad records!
http://www.lordashcroft.com/2015/04/crimestoppers-launches-a-major-new-initiative-to-combat-electoral-fraud/
"Secrecy – Each ballot paper is secret, asking someone to reveal their ballot paper is an offence,"
There are actually a number of things going on.
Given grade inflation and also the realization that no uni = very difficult life ahead, kids are much more motivated all the way through school. Same with graduate job market, no 2:1, don't even apply. Means there is certainly more focus on at least getting that 2:1
Throw into that cost.
Fees...not tuition fees, but these days halls are very very expensive at many universities, plus for the gym and clubs etc. Uni life outside a few elite places, is not the discounted lifestyle it used to be. I would say probably there is a correlation between how crap a uni is and how expensive all these extras are. Students are a cash cow to be milked in many places.
SU jacking up prices to discourage binge drinking (they are no longer the place of the sub £1 point, in fact many are not cheap at all). Much more "preloading / staying in " with booze from the supermarket.
Also, the rise in the strange phenomenon (that I don't really know the reason for), kids going home at weekends or several times a term. Makes weekends a lot quieter on campuses.