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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How many of these ten will fail to become MPs next week?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How many of these ten will fail to become MPs next week?

0 fail to win (i.e all win their seats) = 0
1 fails to win = 5 pts
2 fail to win = 10 pts
3 fail to win = 15 pts
4 fail to win = 20 pts
5 fail to win = 25 pts
6 fail to win = 30 pts
7 fail to win = 40 pts
8 fail to win = 60 pts
9 fail to win = 80 pts
All 10 fail to win = 100 pts

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937
    1st.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    3 will make it - Gorgeous George, Balls and the Straight Choice
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Night*, surely?

    I'd guess six, or thereabouts, will fail.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    James Chapman (Mail)‏@jameschappers·2 mins2 minutes ago
    .@TheEconomist, which backed Labour in 2001 and 2005, announces it is urging readers to vote #Conservative
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    RobD said:

    Ipsos-MORI.... :D

    Ipsos MORI, actually :p
    TNS BMRB :)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    FPT. Macisback

    "All depends on the UKIP vote, if a proportion of that swings late to the Conservatives Soubry could sneak it, my impression last weekend is though the vast majority of the UKIP support will stay solid, Nick by less than 1000, maybe 500 but Conservatives to hold Amber Valley well worth a punt, UKIP support in that seat much more ex-Labour."

    Do you have a Batmobile? You seem to get round a vast number of constituencies and then report on their expected majorities to within a few hundred. I went round a constituency the other day and wouldn't have a clue even which party was winning.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    5 fallers for me.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Woolie, not so sure about Galloway given how many voters have disappeared from the register in Bradford.

    Agree on Simon Hughes.

    Balls may... or may not. Hard to call.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    And it's night surely, not knight?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,228
    6 out?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Blimey!
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    James Chapman (Mail)‏@jameschappers·2 mins2 minutes ago
    .@TheEconomist, which backed Labour in 2001 and 2005, announces it is urging readers to vote #Conservative

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Mike, it's actually Ipsos MORI, not Ipsos-MORI :)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    RobD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    RobD said:

    Ipsos-MORI.... :D

    Ipsos MORI, actually :p
    TNS BMRB :)
    Just says TNS on their data tables! :p
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Woolie, not so sure about Galloway given how many voters have disappeared from the register in Bradford.

    Agree on Simon Hughes.

    Balls may... or may not. Hard to call.

    Hear this Mr Blair..... George is coming back to Westminster
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    @MarqueeMark

    Oooh a spreadsheets dig!! You fiend you with your vicious tongue
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Sorry Mike, I think this is wrong;

    "The current spread is 27-32. So if you bought at 32 you’d make money provided that FOUR on the list failed. Your exact winnings/losses would be based on how many failures there were."

    Buying at 32 would mean you only make money if SEVEN or more fail to win.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Nigel Farage (Thanet South) HOLD
    Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam) F*cked if I know
    Ed Balls (Morley & Outwood) HOLD
    Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfr’ S.) DEAD
    Danny Alexander (Inverness, Nairn…), DEAD
    Jim Murphy (Renfrewshire East) DEAD
    Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye & Loch’) DEAD
    Simon Hughes (Bermondsey & S’wark) Noone REALLY knows
    Esther McVey (Wirral West) DEAD
    George Galloway (Bradford West) HOLD
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    All the ones in Scotland, at least.

    Looks like Labour are trying in Leamington, just not our bit of it:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/30/cupcakes-balloons-harman-and-balls-a-day-on-labours-pink-bus
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I'm just waiting to see which way Polly T advises us to vote in the election.

    Her input is always so important on everything.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    7 fallers.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Who will suffer the biggest defeat?
    I think it might be wee Dougie
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Night*, surely?

    I'd guess six, or thereabouts, will fail.

    Re Donovan from the Last Crusade.

    Very good :)

    And yep, great film. They spoiled the Indy series with the 4th.

    I reckon Farage, Dougie, Danny Alexander and Jim Murphy will all fall.

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Labour membership over 200,000 -as ever we're wondering how many are in Scotland !!

    https://twitter.com/LabourList/status/593736814323601409
  • manfrommanfrom Posts: 9
    Pong said:

    Sorry Mike, I think this is wrong;

    "The current spread is 27-32. So if you bought at 32 you’d make money provided that FOUR on the list failed. Your exact winnings/losses would be based on how many failures there were."

    Buying at 32 would mean you only make money if SEVEN or more fail to win.

    Points are cumulative. So if 3 fail to win, total points would be 5+10+15=30
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    James Chapman (Mail)‏@jameschappers·2 mins2 minutes ago
    .@TheEconomist, which backed Labour in 2001 and 2005, announces it is urging readers to vote #Conservative

    Who did they back in 2010? LDs?
  • manfrommanfrom Posts: 9
    manfrom said:

    Pong said:

    Sorry Mike, I think this is wrong;

    "The current spread is 27-32. So if you bought at 32 you’d make money provided that FOUR on the list failed. Your exact winnings/losses would be based on how many failures there were."

    Buying at 32 would mean you only make money if SEVEN or more fail to win.

    Points are cumulative. So if 3 fail to win, total points would be 5+10+15=30
    At least I think that's how it works! Could be wrong
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Shouldn't it be Night of the Long Knives?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    I reckon five out. Four Scots plus EMcV. 25 pts.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    "I’m tied up all afternoon."

    Have fun Mike, with the cuffs and all that knotted rope!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    I reckon 6 from the list will fail on Election night.
  • GarethofthevaleGarethofthevale Posts: 503
    Nick P - where did you get the final Broxtowe electorate figures from? Looks like 2k registered late on in Broxtowe compared to the Feb 2015 figures.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2015
    edmundintokyo said:

    FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?

    Yes, once HMQ invites someone to form a government, they become PM and have all the royal prerogatives at their disposal.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    manfrom said:

    manfrom said:

    Pong said:

    Sorry Mike, I think this is wrong;

    "The current spread is 27-32. So if you bought at 32 you’d make money provided that FOUR on the list failed. Your exact winnings/losses would be based on how many failures there were."

    Buying at 32 would mean you only make money if SEVEN or more fail to win.

    Points are cumulative. So if 3 fail to win, total points would be 5+10+15=30
    At least I think that's how it works! Could be wrong
    I don't think so, otherwise the potential max would be well over 100
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Tim Bale‏@ProfTimBale·7 mins7 minutes ago
    Epic fail from socialist sleeper agent @JeremyCliffe. He may have to be terminated. #EconomistendorsesTories
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Fenster, if I were writing the 5th, it'd start with the murder of Indy's son.

    I didn't mind the switch the alien stuff in South America, but the obvious CGI looked bad, whereas the original trilogy's practical effects hold up much better, the villain was forgettable, and Son of Indy was eminently punchable.

    Mr. Woolie, did you just call me Mr. Blair?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    SouthamObserver said:

    All the ones in Scotland, at least.

    Looks like Labour are trying in Leamington, just not our bit of it:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/30/cupcakes-balloons-harman-and-balls-a-day-on-labours-pink-bus

    Best not try too hard I've backed the Tories there off your observations, what I know about how people naturally lean to the CONs outside Coventry and the Ashcroft !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    peter_from_putney said:

    "I’m tied up all afternoon."

    Have fun Mike, with the cuffs and all that knotted rope!

    Any guesses for the safeword? Basil??
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :smiley:
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Tim Bale‏@ProfTimBale·7 mins7 minutes ago
    Epic fail from socialist sleeper agent @JeremyCliffe. He may have to be terminated. #EconomistendorsesTories

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    edmundintokyo said:

    FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?

    I hope HM still has the prerogative power to sack her ministers!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2015
    Bradford West is one of the hardest battles to call IMO. I wonder whether Ashcroft has considered polling it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    isam said:

    @MarqueeMark

    Oooh a spreadsheets dig!! You fiend you with your vicious tongue

    I'll take that as a no, you are not canvassing.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Kettering at 1-8 must be the 1-8 of the century lol
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Esther McVey. I spoke to someone in her constituency of indeterminate voting intention who said they didn't care as long as she lost. I didn't bother to find out why but something must be going on. Anyway I just found this

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11570422/If-Esther-McVey-loses-Wirral-West-it-will-be-a-rejection-of-Tory-modernisation.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2015
    SeanT said:

    Anecdotage

    My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.

    She asked him which way he was voting, and he said

    "Well, I quite like the Conservatories"

    The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    No idea, I wouldn't touch that with a bargepole. Balls will be safe, Danny Alexander definitely gone, the rest..
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    RobD said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?

    I hope HM still has the prerogative power to sack her ministers!
    Not if Miliband hits her with the first nuke
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    7% interest in a week - Labour in Brent Central (1/14)

    If there was a general election every week we could retire. Though the bookies would get better at it eventually...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Fenster, if I were writing the 5th, it'd start with the murder of Indy's son.

    I didn't mind the switch the alien stuff in South America, but the obvious CGI looked bad, whereas the original trilogy's practical effects hold up much better, the villain was forgettable, and Son of Indy was eminently punchable.

    Mr. Woolie, did you just call me Mr. Blair?

    No darling, I was doing a GG impression x
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    James Chapman (Mail)‏@jameschappers·2 mins2 minutes ago
    .@TheEconomist, which backed Labour in 2001 and 2005, announces it is urging readers to vote #Conservative

    Who did they back in 2010? LDs?
    Tories I think.

    FT & Evening Standard are the only endorsements that might surprise, although I suspect they'll both go Blue (however given '92 analogies are all the rage the FT did back Kinnock, so who knows?!).
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Roger said:

    Esther McVey. I spoke to someone in her constituency of indeterminate voting intention who said they didn't care as long as she lost. I didn't bother to find out why but something must be going on. Anyway I just found this

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11570422/If-Esther-McVey-loses-Wirral-West-it-will-be-a-rejection-of-Tory-modernisation.html

    The Greens' decision not to stand in Wirral West could prove decisive. They're standing in 573 constituencies altogether so obviously they wanted to do their bit to see McVey defeated.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    SouthamObserver said:

    Shouldn't it be Night of the Long Knives?

    Night of the Long Drives :)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    "The Knight of the long knifes"?

    Consolidation from HM for the defeated?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Woolie, then I shall not unleash the enormo-haddock upon thee.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    How on earth can Kettering be at 1-8 and Labour majority above a hundred.

    It was only taken by 189 votes in 1997 !!!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2015
    RobD said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?

    I hope HM still has the prerogative power to sack her ministers!
    Theoretically she can recall the prerogative at any time and hence could sack without recommendation. To do so would invoke a Constitutional Crisis leading to the abolition of the Monarchy.

    Hence if Cammo resigns and Miliband can't get a QS through and has to resign, HMQ will have to select a caretaker PM and dissolve parliament as otherwise all prerogative will be in her hands under guidance from Privy Council
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 322
    Do people on this site really believe that the SNP will produce a clean sweep in the 59 Scottish seats? would anyone like to have a charity bet (i.e they believe they will, I believe they won't). Loser to pay £50 to the charity of the winner's choice. Must be a UK wide charity (not a Scottish only or English only one) and not a religious charity.

    First person to accept publicly on PB is on (one bet only). My nominated charity (should I win) is the Cure Parkinsons Trust, which supports research done into Parkinsons disease. Anyone who wants to support the charity but not take the bet can go onto www.justgiving.com/Anna-Monk1

    Please accept this post in the sporting spirit in which it was intended, even if you have disagreed with previous posts that I have made, and please consider a donation to this worthy charity even if you don't want to bet.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    For those that missed it, my post from yesterday:

    https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/picking-the-players-our-next-government/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2015
    edit
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    "Deeply frustrating" watching the election campaign, says David Blunkett: "I'm shouting at the radio and the television"

    Does his guide dog throw things at the TV for him?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    dr_spyn said:

    "Deeply frustrating" watching the election campaign, says David Blunkett: "I'm shouting at the radio and the television"

    Does his guide dog throw things at the TV for him?

    I've heard rumours that UKIP could get a hefty share of the vote in Blunkett's former constituency.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Casino_Royale said:

    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!

    :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/593754566765715456
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Roger

    ' I went round a constituency the other day and wouldn't have a clue even which party was winning.'

    Was it in France or the UK or you don't remember?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!

    :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/593754566765715456
    Looks to me like it's Ipsos Ipsos MORI
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Royale, at school my French teacher used to [sometimes] deliberately make mistakes when writing the date or other things on the blackboard, and failure to correct would lead to prompt chastisement.

    Besides, if we don't correct things they pass unencumbered into common parlance. Like the misuse of 'decimated'...
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    AndyJS said:

    Bradford West is one of the hardest battles to call IMO. I wonder whether Ashcroft has considered polling it.

    I hope it will defeat for Galloway, one of the most unpleasant politicians in the UK.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    edmundintokyo said:

    FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?

    Convention would be that Cameron has first opportunity to form a government, since he's PM. If he fails to do so, he resigns.

    HMQ then (in theory) chooses who is asked to have a go next. That person would attempt to form a government, and be appointed PM once he or she confirms that a government is possible.

    The issue of being unsure whether a QS will pass doesn't really come into it, there's a strong convention that in the negotiations required to form a government the various parties give a commitment to support the QS or to abstain. If you don't have enough commitments to form a majority government, minority government would be plausible if you have a commitment that enough opponents will abstain from the vote on the QS.

    Of course, all that does is get you one session of support, and there would be nothing to stop allegiances changing before the next QS. Classic example would be a one-session grand coalition to pass "essential legislation for the good of the nation" and so on.

    This hasn't been tested for a while and has the flexibility you'd expect of an unwritten constitution. As a result there's a fair amount of effort being put in by the Tory-supporting part of the press to imply a convention of absolute legitimacy for the largest party. The game plan there is to try and argue that it would be unconstitutional for the smaller parties to oppose a minority Tory government's QS - the fight now moves to arguing that FPTP still works to give stable governments because the convention should be that the largest coalition is able to remain in power even if it doesn't command a majority.

    It's going to make Florida look tame.

    Some brilliant background reading on this is Trollope's six political novels (the Palliser novels) covering a 19th century period of coalition negotiations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    AndyJS said:

    dr_spyn said:

    "Deeply frustrating" watching the election campaign, says David Blunkett: "I'm shouting at the radio and the television"

    Does his guide dog throw things at the TV for him?

    I've heard rumours that UKIP could get a hefty share of the vote in Blunkett's former constituency.
    Blunkett was deep red UKIP, that's why !
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Casino_Royale said:

    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!

    But no-one seems to have picked OGH up on "So if you bought at 32 you’d make money provided that four on the list failed." which looks completely wrong - you'd need seven to fail...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    The two Alexanders (wee Dougie, and Danny) are goners, for sure. Clegg - I think he might not make it, tbh. But I'm not sure on that. Kennedy is gone, Balls will be safe (sadly), McVey is gone, Hughes I think will be safe (just), Jim Murphy is gone.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Stereotomy said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!

    :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/593754566765715456
    Looks to me like it's Ipsos Ipsos MORI
    There is precedence to use the hyphen in this situation: Boutros Boutros-Ghali
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    James Chapman (Mail)‏@jameschappers·2 mins2 minutes ago
    .@TheEconomist, which backed Labour in 2001 and 2005, announces it is urging readers to vote #Conservative

    Who did they back in 2010? LDs?
    Tories I think.

    FT & Evening Standard are the only endorsements that might surprise, although I suspect they'll both go Blue (however given '92 analogies are all the rage the FT did back Kinnock, so who knows?!).
    The only reason the ES would even hesitate in going blue is because a Labour government could hasten Boris' (possible) ascension
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Stereotomy said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!

    :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/593754566765715456
    Looks to me like it's Ipsos Ipsos MORI
    They think they're Boutros Boutros-Ghali.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    The Knight of the Long Knives is the fourth Batman film by Chris Nolan, where Bruce Wayne returns from cavorting with Catwoman in Florence to stand for election as Mayor of Gotham City.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Polruan said:

    The game plan there is to try and argue that it would be unconstitutional for the smaller parties to oppose a minority Tory government's QS - the fight now moves to arguing that FPTP still works to give stable governments because the convention should be that the largest coalition is able to remain in power even if it doesn't command a majority.

    I find this line of reasoning hard to understand. Do the other parties also have a collective responsibility to vote for all of the Tory's legislation?

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,471
    AndyJS said:

    Bradford West is one of the hardest battles to call IMO. I wonder whether Ashcroft has considered polling it.

    Can you imagine how difficult it would be to poll?

    Pollster: Who will you be voting for?
    Voter: Who would you like me to vote for?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Stereotomy said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!

    :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/593754566765715456
    Looks to me like it's Ipsos Ipsos MORI
    [sigh]

    "Ipsos MORI, part of the Ipsos Group, is a leading UK research company with global reach. We specialise in researching Advertising (brand equity and communications); Loyalty (customer and employee relationship management); Marketing (consumer, retail & shopper and healthcare); MediaCT (media and technology), Social & Political Research and Reputation Research."
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Anecdotage

    My niece's boyfriend (age 22) is a first time voter.

    She asked him which way he was voting, and he said

    "Well, I quite like the Conservatories"

    The problem with people aged 18-25 these days is they're too sensible. For example they hardly drink at all compared to older age-groups.
    Since 2002, there's been mandatory citizenship training for 11-16 year olds in state schools. That and better Jamie Oliver-inspired nutrition to blame perhaps? Maybe they'll stop gambling as well ;-)
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    The Knight of the Long Knives is the fourth Batman film by Chris Nolan, where Bruce Wayne returns from cavorting with Catwoman in Florence to stand for election as Mayor of Gotham City.

    He also trades in his dark cape for one made of White Satin.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth can Kettering be at 1-8 and Labour majority above a hundred.

    It was only taken by 189 votes in 1997 !!!

    I think the 1-8 on the Tories is a hangover from when people thought Hollobone was going to defect.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2015
    "I’m tied up all afternoon. "

    The comments today by Ann Summers boss appear more persausive than first thought. :lol:
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!

    :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/593754566765715456
    Looks to me like it's Ipsos Ipsos MORI
    [sigh]

    "Ipsos MORI, part of the Ipsos Group, is a leading UK research company with global reach. We specialise in researching Advertising (brand equity and communications); Loyalty (customer and employee relationship management); Marketing (consumer, retail & shopper and healthcare); MediaCT (media and technology), Social & Political Research and Reputation Research."
    Oh, so it's "Ipsos MORI,". Weird that they didn't include the comma in their logo
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    Stereotomy said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    James Chapman (Mail)‏@jameschappers·2 mins2 minutes ago
    .@TheEconomist, which backed Labour in 2001 and 2005, announces it is urging readers to vote #Conservative

    Who did they back in 2010? LDs?
    Tories I think.

    FT & Evening Standard are the only endorsements that might surprise, although I suspect they'll both go Blue (however given '92 analogies are all the rage the FT did back Kinnock, so who knows?!).
    The only reason the ES would even hesitate in going blue is because a Labour government could hasten Boris' (possible) ascension
    London looks like the one party of the country that's gone Labour in a substantial way, so they'd be endorsing against the preference of their readership.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    franklyn said:

    Do people on this site really believe that the SNP will produce a clean sweep in the 59 Scottish seats? would anyone like to have a charity bet (i.e they believe they will, I believe they won't). Loser to pay £50 to the charity of the winner's choice. Must be a UK wide charity (not a Scottish only or English only one) and not a religious charity.

    First person to accept publicly on PB is on (one bet only). My nominated charity (should I win) is the Cure Parkinsons Trust, which supports research done into Parkinsons disease. Anyone who wants to support the charity but not take the bet can go onto www.justgiving.com/Anna-Monk1

    Please accept this post in the sporting spirit in which it was intended, even if you have disagreed with previous posts that I have made, and please consider a donation to this worthy charity even if you don't want to bet.

    I wouldn't - my gut feeling is that the 1:1 odds you offer is not particularly generous, in fact perhaps the opposite, if you were just betting on whether the SNP hold both of Berwickshire &c plus Orkney and Shetland: and you get the other 57 as a bonus, so to speak.

    But your offer raises interesting questions about probablility and the reporting of polls.



  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Stereotomy said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    James Chapman (Mail)‏@jameschappers·2 mins2 minutes ago
    .@TheEconomist, which backed Labour in 2001 and 2005, announces it is urging readers to vote #Conservative

    Who did they back in 2010? LDs?
    Tories I think.

    FT & Evening Standard are the only endorsements that might surprise, although I suspect they'll both go Blue (however given '92 analogies are all the rage the FT did back Kinnock, so who knows?!).
    The only reason the ES would even hesitate in going blue is because a Labour government could hasten Boris' (possible) ascension
    London looks like the one party of the country that's gone Labour in a substantial way, so they'd be endorsing against the preference of their readership.
    Their readership is commuters
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    FPT I have finally got round to analysing the recent COMRES top 50 Con/Lab marginals and comparing their average shares to a) the latest Ashcroft average shares and b) my switching model average shares for these 50 seats

    Here we go:

    ... COMRES ... ASHCROFT ... My model

    Con .. 37% ...34% ...37%
    Lab .. 40% ...39% ...40%
    LD ... 5% ... 6% ... 5%
    UKIP .. 11% ..15% ..14%
    Grn ... 5% ...4% ...4%
    Other ... 2%

    A reasonable fit except for UKIP which is lower in the COMRES poll. I have done a small tweak to the UKIP switching assumptions and my model is now showing:

    ... Share ... Seats
    Con ..35.0% ... 268
    Lab .. 32.9% ...269
    LD ...9.6% ...30
    SNP...4.3% ...59
    Grn ... 4.0% ..1
    UKIP ...13.6% ...1

    I think it is overstating SNP by 2 and understating UKIP by 2.

    But overall, I am still on a 2% Tory lead and equal number of seats.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited April 2015
    Clearly a few toss-ups in that list, but I make it four (incl 3 out of 4 Scottish MPs + Farage) appear very unlikely to be returned and by my estimation and four definitely will be (incl both Clegg and Balls). So I'll split the remaining 2 seats as being one apiece, and therefore from the point of view of the bet, I reckon a total of 5 from this list of ten won't make it back, worth 25 points, so were I to wager, I would be a very modest SELLER at Sporting's 27 points, but certainly not sufficiently so as to tempt me to actually place a bet.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Stereotomy said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!

    :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/593754566765715456
    Looks to me like it's Ipsos Ipsos MORI
    [sigh]

    "Ipsos MORI, part of the Ipsos Group, is a leading UK research company with global reach. We specialise in researching Advertising (brand equity and communications); Loyalty (customer and employee relationship management); Marketing (consumer, retail & shopper and healthcare); MediaCT (media and technology), Social & Political Research and Reputation Research."
    Oh, so it's "Ipsos MORI,". Weird that they didn't include the comma in their logo
    As for TNS:

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/82/TNS_logo_2012.png

    :)
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Barnesian said:

    FPT I have finally got round to analysing the recent COMRES top 50 Con/Lab marginals and comparing their average shares to a) the latest Ashcroft average shares and b) my switching model average shares for these 50 seats

    Here we go:

    ... COMRES ... ASHCROFT ... My model

    Con .. 37% ...34% ...37%
    Lab .. 40% ...39% ...40%
    LD ... 5% ... 6% ... 5%
    UKIP .. 11% ..15% ..14%
    Grn ... 5% ...4% ...4%
    Other ... 2%

    A reasonable fit except for UKIP which is lower in the COMRES poll. I have done a small tweak to the UKIP switching assumptions and my model is now showing:

    ... Share ... Seats
    Con ..35.0% ... 268
    Lab .. 32.9% ...269
    LD ...9.6% ...30
    SNP...4.3% ...59
    Grn ... 4.0% ..1
    UKIP ...13.6% ...1

    I think it is overstating SNP by 2 and understating UKIP by 2.

    But overall, I am still on a 2% Tory lead and equal number of seats.

    I think you need to give your model a name like "FUNNYBUTTFARTYPOOP" for it to get attention.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015
    Tissue_Price said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!

    But no-one seems to have picked OGH up on "So if you bought at 32 you’d make money provided that four on the list failed." which looks completely wrong - you'd need seven to fail...
    *cough*

    Typos generally don't bother me one bit - but especially seeing as SPIN is sponsoring PB's election coverage, I think it is important that Mike corrects this error.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    AndyJS said:

    dr_spyn said:

    "Deeply frustrating" watching the election campaign, says David Blunkett: "I'm shouting at the radio and the television"

    Does his guide dog throw things at the TV for him?

    I've heard rumours that UKIP could get a hefty share of the vote in Blunkett's former constituency.
    That will be "Machine-gunner" Blunkett? Wasn't he already UKIP?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6057528.stm
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    RobD said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!

    :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/593754566765715456
    Looks to me like it's Ipsos Ipsos MORI
    There is precedence to use the hyphen in this situation: Boutros Boutros-Ghali
    OK, I'll bite.... is there precedent to use "precedence" in this context?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    peter_from_putney said:

    Clearly a few toss-ups in that list, but I make it four (incl 3 out of 4 Scottish MPs + Farage) appear very unlikely to be returned and by my estimation and four definitely will be (incl both Clegg and Balls). So I'll split the remaining 2 seats as being one apiece, and therefore from the point of view of the bet, I reckon a total of 5 from this list of ten won't make it back, worth 25 points, so were I to wager, I would be a very modest SELLER at Sporting's 27 points, but certainly not sufficiently so as to tempt me to actually place a bet.

    Is Farage really in the "very unlikely" camp?
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Anyone know when Panelbase is expected?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!

    But no-one seems to have picked OGH up on "So if you bought at 32 you’d make money provided that four on the list failed." which looks completely wrong - you'd need seven to fail...
    *cough*

    Typos generally don't bother me one bit - but especially seeing as SPIN is sponsoring PB's election coverage, I think it is important that mike corrects this error.
    Sorry Pong! I'll try again: Has anyone picked Mike up on "three Scottish ones"?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    acf2310 said:

    Anyone know when Panelbase is expected?

    Some time this afternoon, I would think.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    Our local news has just shown George Osborne visiting a goalpost factory.

    I was wondering if he was advising them on how to move the goalposts, or organise a stitch-up. ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Polruan said:

    RobD said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Ha. Love the instant pedantry from pb'ers on the typo on this thread. Lightning quick!!

    :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/593754566765715456
    Looks to me like it's Ipsos Ipsos MORI
    There is precedence to use the hyphen in this situation: Boutros Boutros-Ghali
    OK, I'll bite.... is there precedent to use "precedence" in this context?
    Yes, my crap spelling :)
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Stereotomy said:

    Polruan said:

    The game plan there is to try and argue that it would be unconstitutional for the smaller parties to oppose a minority Tory government's QS - the fight now moves to arguing that FPTP still works to give stable governments because the convention should be that the largest coalition is able to remain in power even if it doesn't command a majority.

    I find this line of reasoning hard to understand. Do the other parties also have a collective responsibility to vote for all of the Tory's legislation?

    For those of a technocratic mindset who consider there to be an absolute priority to maintain "stable" government in order to stave off the wrath of bond vigilantes, yeah, that's pretty much where it goes. It's the mindset that led to the the LDs abject 5-year support for a Tory government which went way over and above what was required by the coalition agreement.
This discussion has been closed.