My penultimate GE Bet of the Week seeks to achieve the near impossible, by identifying a market which might just about appeal to both Bob Sykes as well as JackW (if not quite Mike Smithson also). I give you, ta - dah ..... drum roll, Wm. Hills' Conservative 276 - 300 seat band which they have on offer at 2.1 decimal, or 11/10 in old money. This equates to a probability of 47.6%, whereas I make it at least a 60%, shot particularly in the light of those improving polls for the Blues. Sidney, their political guru, would only allow me to stake £45 to win £50, but those nice people at Bet365 are offering similar odds of 2.05. DYOR.
Tory MPs have an end-of-term sweep-stake on how many seats they will get at the election. I shall spare his blushes, but the same MP has won this the last two elections.
His bet this time? 294...
Interesting ..... presumably this sweepstake was organised just prior to the dissolution of Parliament, five week s ago and the climate has probably moved slightly in the Tories' favour since. I'm trying to remember what the average Tory seats score was in PB.com's recent second competition, effectively a wisdom index, but obviously with a more balanced entry than that comprising solely Tory MPs. Somewhere around 280+ seats iirc.
Is it really that surprising that the Tories have been endorsed by FT, The Economist, The Sun, and the Spectator? 3 out 4 of those are fairly centre-right publications anyway, particularly the Spectator, and the FT endorsed the Tories in 2010, too I think. Only the Guardian, the New Statesmen, and The Mirror (maybe the Indy and the I) will endorse Labour. I don't think newspaper endorsements matter much these in terms of influencing the public, like they once did.
the FT is the main one. It was very pro- New labour, and very pro-europe..
Given Cameron's ideology is not far off Blairism, I'm not too surprised by that. But I don't really see the FT's endorsement as surprise, or that significant tbh - they were never going to support Miliband.
They supported Kinnock over Major though.
Yeah, and they've also endorsed Thatcher as well. They generally support centre-right economic polices.
In no discipline does left wing support fall below 60%.
Is this really that surprising?
(i) don't bite the hand that feeds you (ii) right wing types don't go into research; they go off to earn the corporate dollar
Looks in mirror. Looks at bank balance. Sighs.
I feel you....
I call probable bullshit. A weak process.
1 - The TSE notes that the survey is "self-selecting". 2 - The criteria is "people with University Email Addresses" - that includes students, and more importantly postgrads. 3 - That methodology is ripe for ramping.
More Greenies in Engineering than Humanities? Er .. no.
Comments
I'm trying to remember what the average Tory seats score was in PB.com's recent second competition, effectively a wisdom index, but obviously with a more balanced entry than that comprising solely Tory MPs. Somewhere around 280+ seats iirc.
1 - The TSE notes that the survey is "self-selecting".
2 - The criteria is "people with University Email Addresses" - that includes students, and more importantly postgrads.
3 - That methodology is ripe for ramping.
More Greenies in Engineering than Humanities? Er .. no.