The easy way to resolve this Pandas v. Tory MPs in Scotland is to kill the bl**dy pandas.
Will that make it a tie? And anyway China might send two or three more over, having put a large bet on the outcome.
Seriously - I just cannot imagine Johnson as Prime Minister. The other countries would take him as seriously as the Minister for the Swiss Navy or the Greek Minister of Finance.
The obvious reason would be to get more publicity than if you drop all your policy announcements in one go in the manifesto, and to set a favourable news narrative nearer the election.
Proably not a secret to comment that EiT is as usual right - there was a deliberate strategy to have a quiet manifesto setting the framework (essentially no reckless economics) and then a new announcement every couple of days, which under election coverage practice means decent coverage for each policy in turn, instead of one day's orgy.
People don't like chaos, and with all the posturing that the minority parties will have to do to try and provide reasons for their continued existence at Westminster, it will not be pleasant in the meantime.
I've found that expectation of a hung parliament is now universal among voters not involved with a party. They aren't enthusiastic about the prospect but accept that all parties will need to make the best of it (which is why the "horrors, they'll talk to the SNP" stuff isn't cutting through). A curious side-effect is that the "your vote will decide the government" line isn't working either way even in a marginal - people say "I suppose the government will be decided by negotiations later, however we vote". Very Continental.
Labour activists are very calm wherever I go. Either then know they have won or know they have lost. Most PVs have not sent them in yet. Some never will.
That's an interesting view, Dixie.
When canvassing last week one of my tasks was to check voters had received their postal ballot and encourage them to send it off. More than half had completed and returned the form within 24 hours of receiving it.
What is the experience of other PB canvassers?
80% of people who said they'd support us, unless people are actually lying about sending in votes (why should they?). I assume the same for Tory pledges, though we aren't going out of our way to disturb them.
Here is an anecdote that I imagine most of you will think I have made up - I was talking to an undecided voter from Broxtowe last night, and just about managed to persuade her to vote for NP. If you win by one vote Nick, lit was all down to me!
Ta! May 5 mini-PBmeet in the Crown pub is still on, from 2000.
The easy way to resolve this Pandas v. Tory MPs in Scotland is to kill the bl**dy pandas.
Will that make it a tie? And anyway China might send two or three more over, having put a large bet on the outcome.
Seriously - I just cannot imagine Johnson as Prime Minister. The other countries would take him as seriously as the Minister for the Swiss Navy or the Greek Minister of Finance.
There is a Swiss navy (lacustrine flotilla on the big lakes). But don't google-search Swiss Navy at work, as I have just discovered what else one gets ...
Here is an anecdote that I imagine most of you will think I have made up - I was talking to an undecided voter from Broxtowe last night, and just about managed to persuade her to vote for NP. If you win by one vote Nick, lit was all down to me!
Lol !
I was there for a couple of days myself recently. It's looking good for Labour, which undoubtedly has the TV vote sewn up.
By coincidence, Eddie Izzard was also there at the same time.
The obvious reason would be to get more publicity than if you drop all your policy announcements in one go in the manifesto, and to set a favourable news narrative nearer the election.
Proably not a secret to comment that EiT is as usual right - there was a deliberate strategy to have a quiet manifesto setting the framework (essentially no reckless economics) and then a new announcement every couple of days, which under election coverage practice means decent coverage for each policy in turn, instead of one day's orgy.
Yes that much is obvious - will be interesting if you get away with it. Renders the manifesto pointless
Proably not a secret to comment that EiT is as usual right - there was a deliberate strategy to have a quiet manifesto setting the framework (essentially no reckless economics) and then a new announcement every couple of days, which under election coverage practice means decent coverage for each policy in turn, instead of one day's orgy.
On the other hand it's intellectually dishonest and means the Salisbury Convention won't apply.
[... the daughter said] Mr Wells had gone back to the house twice saying he wanted to apologise. But the couple would not accept the apology, because, they claimed, Mr Wells said he did not agree with their lifestyle choice. "
Genuine question: why on earth should saying that you do "not agree with [someone's] lifestyle choice" be a criminal offence? Sheesh!
Coming back to the couple's house a further two times in an attempt to convince them to accept an apology might be seen to be harassing and intimidating behaviour. Once to apologise, but twice?
Not saying that I would charge, but I think people are a bit quick to get on the outrage bus about it without thinking through the episode in its entirety.
One of the most told and well worn jokes in Scottish politics is the question of more panda than Tories. I was struck yesterday on Murnihan on Sky when Alex Salmond suggested that the Tory anti-Scottish campaign was about to settle this contest as PANDAS 2 TORIES 0.
And so I had a look for the evidence from the daily YouGov a poll which has shown no discernable impact at UK level of the Tory assault on Labour and the SNP.
Uintil the last week the Tories support in the Scottish sub samples has been chugging along in the high teens - not brilliant but enough to entertain hopes of preventing a wipeout.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
There is no love lost between Tories and the SNP and this is of great benefit to the Tories here. The fight in Scotland is between the SNP and the rest. If you vote Tory you know you will not get the SNP through the backdoor. The unionist voters are older and richer and more likely to vote. It is not outside the realms of possibility to see the Tories get 20% or more of the vote in Scotland. While this may not get them many MPs it does put them in a good place for the Scottish election next year.
One of the most told and well worn jokes in Scottish politics is the question of more panda than Tories. I was struck yesterday on Murnihan on Sky when Alex Salmond suggested that the Tory anti-Scottish campaign was about to settle this contest as PANDAS 2 TORIES 0.
And so I had a look for the evidence from the daily YouGov a poll which has shown no discernable impact at UK level of the Tory assault on Labour and the SNP.
Uintil the last week the Tories support in the Scottish sub samples has been chugging along in the high teens - not brilliant but enough to entertain hopes of preventing a wipeout.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
There is no love lost between Tories and the SNP and this is of great benefit to the Tories here. The fight in Scotland is between the SNP and the rest. If you vote Tory you know you will not get the SNP through the backdoor. The unionist voters are older and richer and more likely to vote. It is not outside the realms of possibility to see the Tories get 20% or more of the vote in Scotland. While this may not get them many MPs it does put them in a good place for the Scottish election next year.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
From last week: that speech by Gordon Brown promising £5K for every foodbank in Scotland within 24 hours of the election - it emerges that this was to be from the Scotland Office budget which (a) has no budget for such and (b) reportedly London Labour HQ wouldn't support it.
Proably not a secret to comment that EiT is as usual right - there was a deliberate strategy to have a quiet manifesto setting the framework (essentially no reckless economics) and then a new announcement every couple of days, which under election coverage practice means decent coverage for each policy in turn, instead of one day's orgy.
On the other hand it's intellectually dishonest and means the Salisbury Convention won't apply.
Oh Boo hoo Labour not running campaign as Tories would like them to.
One of the most told and well worn jokes in Scottish politics is the question of more panda than Tories. I was struck yesterday on Murnihan on Sky when Alex Salmond suggested that the Tory anti-Scottish campaign was about to settle this contest as PANDAS 2 TORIES 0.
And so I had a look for the evidence from the daily YouGov a poll which has shown no discernable impact at UK level of the Tory assault on Labour and the SNP.
Uintil the last week the Tories support in the Scottish sub samples has been chugging along in the high teens - not brilliant but enough to entertain hopes of preventing a wipeout.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
There is no love lost between Tories and the SNP and this is of great benefit to the Tories here. The fight in Scotland is between the SNP and the rest. If you vote Tory you know you will not get the SNP through the backdoor. The unionist voters are older and richer and more likely to vote. It is not outside the realms of possibility to see the Tories get 20% or more of the vote in Scotland. While this may not get them many MPs it does put them in a good place for the Scottish election next year.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
A Wasted Vote. Might as well try to get real Tories in rather than tribute band.
Proably not a secret to comment that EiT is as usual right - there was a deliberate strategy to have a quiet manifesto setting the framework (essentially no reckless economics) and then a new announcement every couple of days, which under election coverage practice means decent coverage for each policy in turn, instead of one day's orgy.
On the other hand it's intellectually dishonest and means the Salisbury Convention won't apply.
Still, it means every other party can get away with it now too.
I see that lots of PBers who are not Conservative members seem to think he wouldn't be a popular choice amongst members for leader of the party.
This is wrong.
Yes, of course it is true that he is slightly to the left of Cameron, and is even more a representative of the metropolitan mindset than Cameron. In addition his private life has been a little more colourful than would normally be considered desirable by upright Tory ladies in the shires. From that point of view, you might think members wouldn't vote for him, but the fact is that he is incredibly popular - especially amongst those upright Tory ladies.
His biggest obstacle would be getting through the MPs' stage to get to be one of the two candidates put to members. Those MPs will take a hard-headed approach on this; the criterion will basically be whether he's considered a winner.
If he were to get through to the members' ballot, it would depend on who the alternative candidate was, but he'd have a very good chance.
Overall, he's by no means a shoo-in, but he's certainly one of the front-runners.
I think the biggest obstacle is that he's probably not the right person to extend the Conservative vote in the Midlands and North.
Edinburgh South is shaping up to be a real cliff hanger. A 4 way marginal where the SNP decided to call No voters quislings and suggested that senior citizens have their votes taken away from them. My son who lives in the ward with 3 other young guys is sick and tired of people knocking on their door. He will not vote SNP but one of his flatmates will and the other 2 probably wont vote or green if anything. This is a fairly typical student house.
Me thinks looking at the Betfair markets that Ukip over 3.5 at odds against won't last long
The betting markets do seem to be offering short odds on Ukip doing badly. One seat exactly is still at 11/4 or 3/1, despite the Ashcroft and Ukip polls.
Me thinks looking at the Betfair markets that Ukip over 3.5 at odds against won't last long
Are they [UKIP] favs in 4 seats?
I have them to win in Clacton, Thanet S and Thurrock. 50% chance in Thanet N. 33% chance in Castle P and Grimsby. 16% chance in Great Yarmouth.
Overall, I have them down for four seats.
The problem with UKIP is not the seats they'll win - it's where their vote materially affects the outcome. Unfortunately we don't have much idea - for instance we have had a lot of polling in tory marginal seats - but not in labour marginal seats (as far as I can tell). The assumption has always been that Labour will hold what they have - but this may not be the case.
After the election we'll have a lot of data, of course, but by then it will be too late for this one.
Proably not a secret to comment that EiT is as usual right - there was a deliberate strategy to have a quiet manifesto setting the framework (essentially no reckless economics) and then a new announcement every couple of days, which under election coverage practice means decent coverage for each policy in turn, instead of one day's orgy.
On the other hand it's intellectually dishonest and means the Salisbury Convention won't apply.
Where's the intellectual dishonesty? I mean, it's not like they're trying to avoid scrutiny of the policy - the goal will be to get more coverage, and it'll also result in more criticism.
If the Lords really are going to stick their noses in, that actually doesn't sound like a bad thing; I mean, aren't these little populist crowd-pleasers just the kind of thing that a second chamber should be scrutinising and checking for adverse consequences?
Proably not a secret to comment that EiT is as usual right - there was a deliberate strategy to have a quiet manifesto setting the framework (essentially no reckless economics) and then a new announcement every couple of days, which under election coverage practice means decent coverage for each policy in turn, instead of one day's orgy.
On the other hand it's intellectually dishonest and means the Salisbury Convention won't apply.
Oh Boo hoo Labour not running campaign as Tories would like them to.
I don't dispute Labour are running a decent campaign; that doesn't preclude me from thinking it intellectually dishonest not to put your campaign promises into your manifesto.
From last week: that speech by Gordon Brown promising £5K for every foodbank in Scotland within 24 hours of the election - it emerges that this was to be from the Scotland Office budget which (a) has no budget for such and (b) reportedly London Labour HQ wouldn't support it.
LOL, they also back peddled on zero hours contracts, Glasgow Labour council has 2000 on zero hours contracts, not it is just exploitative ones they will ban. Seeing/hearing both Murphy and Alexander it is unbelievable how practiced they are at lying but come across as shifty snake oil salesmen, both creepy.
This is the Alex Salmond who took the SNP from next to nothing to 30 per cent plus in 2007, to majority government at 40 per cent plus in 2011 and to 45 per cent in 2014 in the referendum. I think that many of us up here found him more credible than the shower you have to choose from.
Rocks is too busy thinking Gordon is the Messiah and Labour are great. Last of the dodo's.
Nope, just getting some work done. And I'm not sure the people of Gordon believe firmly enough that Eck is the next messiah. Certainly the majority of the Scottish electorate didn't last September. 55 to 45% wasn't it?
If Salmond had won by 1 vote, he would have declared a Victory for Independence and to hell with the nay sayers, quislings and traitors.
And now he wants awa' back tae the Big Parliament. You couldn't make it up.
Edinburgh South is shaping up to be a real cliff hanger. A 4 way marginal where the SNP decided to call No voters quislings and suggested that senior citizens have their votes taken away from them. My son who lives in the ward with 3 other young guys is sick and tired of people knocking on their door. He will not vote SNP but one of his flatmates will and the other 2 probably wont vote or green if anything. This is a fairly typical student house.
Typical lying nasty Tory. You just made that absolute crap up. You Tories have no shame whatsoever. Pathetic smear tactics from real nasty Tory.
One of the most told and well worn jokes in Scottish politics is the question of more panda than Tories. I was struck yesterday on Murnihan on Sky when Alex Salmond suggested that the Tory anti-Scottish campaign was about to settle this contest as PANDAS 2 TORIES 0.
And so I had a look for the evidence from the daily YouGov a poll which has shown no discernable impact at UK level of the Tory assault on Labour and the SNP.
Uintil the last week the Tories support in the Scottish sub samples has been chugging along in the high teens - not brilliant but enough to entertain hopes of preventing a wipeout.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
There is no love lost between Tories and the SNP and this is of great benefit to the Tories here. The fight in Scotland is between the SNP and the rest. If you vote Tory you know you will not get the SNP through the backdoor. The unionist voters are older and richer and more likely to vote. It is not outside the realms of possibility to see the Tories get 20% or more of the vote in Scotland. While this may not get them many MPs it does put them in a good place for the Scottish election next year.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
Well in Argyll and Bute it's for a left winger who isn't a bigot.
This is the Alex Salmond who took the SNP from next to nothing to 30 per cent plus in 2007, to majority government at 40 per cent plus in 2011 and to 45 per cent in 2014 in the referendum. I think that many of us up here found him more credible than the shower you have to choose from.
Rocks is too busy thinking Gordon is the Messiah and Labour are great. Last of the dodo's.
Nope, just getting some work done. And I'm not sure the people of Gordon believe firmly enough that Eck is the next messiah. Certainly the majority of the Scottish electorate didn't last September. 55 to 45% wasn't it?
If Salmond had won by 1 vote, he would have declared a Victory for Independence and to hell with the nay sayers, quislings and traitors.
And now he wants awa' back tae the Big Parliament. You couldn't make it up.
Salmond must miss the expenses. Still, it's going to be fun watching Sturgeon try to yank his chain.
Mr. Calum, do you think the SNP will manage to reach the 45-50 mark (or even exceed it)?
Mr MD, I think the SNP will exceed the 50 mark, the relentless Tory/MSM SNP attackathon of the last couple of weeks has the potential to get the SNP up to the 54/55 mark. As you will have seen from the Lord A polls, the SNP have a very effective ground campaign in every single constituency, the turn around in Renfrewshire East was the most startling.
In terms of the SNP surge, I think it will propel the SNP to getting over 50% on the 7th, whether tactical voting can mitigate any of this surge will no doubt be the subject of many academic studies for years to come !!
One of the most told and well worn jokes in Scottish politics is the question of more panda than Tories. I was struck yesterday on Murnihan on Sky when Alex Salmond suggested that the Tory anti-Scottish campaign was about to settle this contest as PANDAS 2 TORIES 0.
And so I had a look for the evidence from the daily YouGov a poll which has shown no discernable impact at UK level of the Tory assault on Labour and the SNP.
Uintil the last week the Tories support in the Scottish sub samples has been chugging along in the high teens - not brilliant but enough to entertain hopes of preventing a wipeout.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
There is no love lost between Tories and the SNP and this is of great benefit to the Tories here. The fight in Scotland is between the SNP and the rest. If you vote Tory you know you will not get the SNP through the backdoor. The unionist voters are older and richer and more likely to vote. It is not outside the realms of possibility to see the Tories get 20% or more of the vote in Scotland. While this may not get them many MPs it does put them in a good place for the Scottish election next year.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
Well in Argyll and Bute it's for a left winger who isn't a bigot.
The Conservatives are the clear unionist vote in Argyll. They start out ahead of Labour !
YouGov theoretical TV splits in Scotland - NB the initial categorisation of the voters presumably already includes tactival voters, which explains some of the otherwise odd-looking data
If only Lab or SNP can win
Tories split Con 47 Lab 44 LD 1 SNP 8 Lib Dems split Con 5 Lab 55 LD 29 SNP 9
If only Con or SNP can win
Labour split Con 24 Lab 41 LD 0 SNP 31 Lib Dems split Con 56 Lab 1 LD 30 SNP 11
If only LD or SNP can win
Tories split Con 45 Lab 0 LD 49 SNP 6 Labour split Con 1 Lab 37 LD 35 SNP 25
All this is largely theoretical I think, and will already be baked into some of the Ashcrofts in the obvious two-party contests like Glasgow.
Me thinks looking at the Betfair markets that Ukip over 3.5 at odds against won't last long
Are they [UKIP] favs in 4 seats?
I have them to win in Clacton, Thanet S and Thurrock. 50% chance in Thanet N. 33% chance in Castle P and Grimsby. 16% chance in Great Yarmouth.
Overall, I have them down for four seats.
There are surely lots more you have higher than 16% and 33% even?
Rochester & Boston for instance? SouthBasildon, Cannock chase, Dudley North, rotherham
As I've consistently pointed out, there's a reason selling UKIP on the spreads (For the overall) is a poor bet. Sellers could well get fingers truly burnt.
This is the Alex Salmond who took the SNP from next to nothing to 30 per cent plus in 2007, to majority government at 40 per cent plus in 2011 and to 45 per cent in 2014 in the referendum. I think that many of us up here found him more credible than the shower you have to choose from.
Rocks is too busy thinking Gordon is the Messiah and Labour are great. Last of the dodo's.
Nope, just getting some work done. And I'm not sure the people of Gordon believe firmly enough that Eck is the next messiah. Certainly the majority of the Scottish electorate didn't last September. 55 to 45% wasn't it?
If Salmond had won by 1 vote, he would have declared a Victory for Independence and to hell with the nay sayers, quislings and traitors.
And now he wants awa' back tae the Big Parliament. You couldn't make it up.
Your only respite is to take succour of your phyrric victory with your Tory twins. Now they have abandoned you as the losers you are the chickens are about to come home to roost. Alex and many others in Westminster and the goon squad out on their erses. You would not have believed it after that wonderful Tory victory in September.
Me thinks looking at the Betfair markets that Ukip over 3.5 at odds against won't last long
The betting markets do seem to be offering short odds on Ukip doing badly. One seat exactly is still at 11/4 or 3/1, despite the Ashcroft and Ukip polls.
Must be hopers I reckon.
Also things like the newsnight index, BJESUS etc which put Ukip at 1 seat by using analysis that went out of fashion with political correctness
One of the most told and well worn jokes in Scottish politics is the question of more panda than Tories. I was struck yesterday on Murnihan on Sky when Alex Salmond suggested that the Tory anti-Scottish campaign was about to settle this contest as PANDAS 2 TORIES 0.
And so I had a look for the evidence from the daily YouGov a poll which has shown no discernable impact at UK level of the Tory assault on Labour and the SNP.
Uintil the last week the Tories support in the Scottish sub samples has been chugging along in the high teens - not brilliant but enough to entertain hopes of preventing a wipeout.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
There is no love lost between Tories and the SNP and this is of great benefit to the Tories here. The fight in Scotland is between the SNP and the rest. If you vote Tory you know you will not get the SNP through the backdoor. The unionist voters are older and richer and more likely to vote. It is not outside the realms of possibility to see the Tories get 20% or more of the vote in Scotland. While this may not get them many MPs it does put them in a good place for the Scottish election next year.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
Well in Argyll and Bute it's for a left winger who isn't a bigot.
A loser you mean , what a joke to imagine labour would have a left winger as a candidate.
Proably not a secret to comment that EiT is as usual right - there was a deliberate strategy to have a quiet manifesto setting the framework (essentially no reckless economics) and then a new announcement every couple of days, which under election coverage practice means decent coverage for each policy in turn, instead of one day's orgy.
On the other hand it's intellectually dishonest and means the Salisbury Convention won't apply.
Where's the intellectual dishonesty? I mean, it's not like they're trying to avoid scrutiny of the policy - the goal will be to get more coverage, and it'll also result in more criticism.
If the Lords really are going to stick their noses in, that actually doesn't sound like a bad thing; I mean, aren't these little populist crowd-pleasers just the kind of thing that a second chamber should be scrutinising and checking for adverse consequences?
You write a manifesto, it gets costed by the IFS etc. and people have already postal-voted on that basis. And then, after the event, people refer back to the manifesto to pledge-check.
I don't have a problem with the Lords sticking their noses in, but the fact that the (presumably popular) policy is now less deliverable because of that is probably lost on the electorate who may vote for it.
I think the biggest obstacle is that he's probably not the right person to extend the Conservative vote in the Midlands and North.
One of the problems here, which also applies to Labour (eg see John Denham) is that this can become a self-reinforcing situation. The Conservative party will be dominated by MPs representing Southern constituencies and they may not be best placed to work out how to win a debate for Conservatism outside their own backyard.
Far easier to deride people who don't vote for Tory MPs as victims of a Labour client state than to be self-critical.
This is the Alex Salmond who took the SNP from next to nothing to 30 per cent plus in 2007, to majority government at 40 per cent plus in 2011 and to 45 per cent in 2014 in the referendum. I think that many of us up here found him more credible than the shower you have to choose from.
Rocks is too busy thinking Gordon is the Messiah and Labour are great. Last of the dodo's.
Nope, just getting some work done. And I'm not sure the people of Gordon believe firmly enough that Eck is the next messiah. Certainly the majority of the Scottish electorate didn't last September. 55 to 45% wasn't it?
If Salmond had won by 1 vote, he would have declared a Victory for Independence and to hell with the nay sayers, quislings and traitors.
And now he wants awa' back tae the Big Parliament. You couldn't make it up.
Salmond must miss the expenses. Still, it's going to be fun watching Sturgeon try to yank his chain.
You really are as stupid as you make out, he is still an MSP, has 6 pensions , various exit fees etc , he has little need of expenses.
One of the most told and well worn jokes in Scottish politics is the question of more panda than Tories. I was struck yesterday on Murnihan on Sky when Alex Salmond suggested that the Tory anti-Scottish campaign was about to settle this contest as PANDAS 2 TORIES 0.
And so I had a look for the evidence from the daily YouGov a poll which has shown no discernable impact at UK level of the Tory assault on Labour and the SNP.
Uintil the last week the Tories support in the Scottish sub samples has been chugging along in the high teens - not brilliant but enough to entertain hopes of preventing a wipeout.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
There is no love lost between Tories and the SNP and this is of great benefit to the Tories here. The fight in Scotland is between the SNP and the rest. If you vote Tory you know you will not get the SNP through the backdoor. The unionist voters are older and richer and more likely to vote. It is not outside the realms of possibility to see the Tories get 20% or more of the vote in Scotland. While this may not get them many MPs it does put them in a good place for the Scottish election next year.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
Well in Argyll and Bute it's for a left winger who isn't a bigot.
A loser you mean , what a joke to imagine labour would have a left winger as a candidate.
Well rather a loser than a vile republican. Some of the screenshots of other social media formats are out there - the grovelling apology at the weekend may be the first of many...
Proably not a secret to comment that EiT is as usual right - there was a deliberate strategy to have a quiet manifesto setting the framework (essentially no reckless economics) and then a new announcement every couple of days, which under election coverage practice means decent coverage for each policy in turn, instead of one day's orgy.
On the other hand it's intellectually dishonest and means the Salisbury Convention won't apply.
Where's the intellectual dishonesty? I mean, it's not like they're trying to avoid scrutiny of the policy - the goal will be to get more coverage, and it'll also result in more criticism.
If the Lords really are going to stick their noses in, that actually doesn't sound like a bad thing; I mean, aren't these little populist crowd-pleasers just the kind of thing that a second chamber should be scrutinising and checking for adverse consequences?
You write a manifesto, it gets costed by the IFS etc. and people have already postal-voted on that basis. And then, after the event, people refer back to the manifesto to pledge-check.
I don't have a problem with the Lords sticking their noses in, but the fact that the (presumably popular) policy is now less deliverable because of that is probably lost on the electorate who may vote for it.
One of the most told and well worn jokes in Scottish politics is the question of more panda than Tories. I was struck yesterday on Murnihan on Sky when Alex Salmond suggested that the Tory anti-Scottish campaign was about to settle this contest as PANDAS 2 TORIES 0.
And so I had a look for the evidence from the daily YouGov a poll which has shown no discernable impact at UK level of the Tory assault on Labour and the SNP.
Uintil the last week the Tories support in the Scottish sub samples has been chugging along in the high teens - not brilliant but enough to entertain hopes of preventing a wipeout.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
There is no love lost between Tories and the SNP and this is of great benefit to the Tories here. The fight in Scotland is between the SNP and the rest. If you vote Tory you know you will not get the SNP through the backdoor. The unionist voters are older and richer and more likely to vote. It is not outside the realms of possibility to see the Tories get 20% or more of the vote in Scotland. While this may not get them many MPs it does put them in a good place for the Scottish election next year.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
Well in Argyll and Bute it's for a left winger who isn't a bigot.
A loser you mean , what a joke to imagine labour would have a left winger as a candidate.
Well rather a loser than a vile republican. Some of the screenshots of other social media formats are out there - the grovelling apology at the weekend may be the first of many...
Dear Dear Harry, you need to get that loser chip off your shoulder. If you tried you would find that Catholics are just normal people. Little words are scary for you boys , your inferiority complex is amazing. Only mixing with people who wear sashes affects your thinking, you need to get out more.
Proably not a secret to comment that EiT is as usual right - there was a deliberate strategy to have a quiet manifesto setting the framework (essentially no reckless economics) and then a new announcement every couple of days, which under election coverage practice means decent coverage for each policy in turn, instead of one day's orgy.
On the other hand it's intellectually dishonest and means the Salisbury Convention won't apply.
Where's the intellectual dishonesty? I mean, it's not like they're trying to avoid scrutiny of the policy - the goal will be to get more coverage, and it'll also result in more criticism.
If the Lords really are going to stick their noses in, that actually doesn't sound like a bad thing; I mean, aren't these little populist crowd-pleasers just the kind of thing that a second chamber should be scrutinising and checking for adverse consequences?
You write a manifesto, it gets costed by the IFS etc. and people have already postal-voted on that basis. And then, after the event, people refer back to the manifesto to pledge-check.
I don't have a problem with the Lords sticking their noses in, but the fact that the (presumably popular) policy is now less deliverable because of that is probably lost on the electorate who may vote for it.
Fairy nuff, you've convinced me.
Wow, first time ever on pb that someone has convinced someone else of something?!
One of the most told and well worn jokes in Scottish politics is the question of more panda than Tories. I was struck yesterday on Murnihan on Sky when Alex Salmond suggested that the Tory anti-Scottish campaign was about to settle this contest as PANDAS 2 TORIES 0.
And so I had a look for the evidence from the daily YouGov a poll which has shown no discernable impact at UK level of the Tory assault on Labour and the SNP.
Uintil the last week the Tories support in the Scottish sub samples has been chugging along in the high teens - not brilliant but enough to entertain hopes of preventing a wipeout.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
There is no le vote in Scotland. While this may not get them many MPs it does put them in a good place for the Scottish election next year.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
Well in Argyll and Bute it's for a left winger who isn't a bigot.
A loser you mean , what a joke to imagine labour would have a left winger as a candidate.
Well rather a loser than a vile republican. Some of the screenshots of other social media formats are out there - the grovelling apology at the weekend may be the first of many...
Dear Dear Harry, you need to get that loser chip off your shoulder. If you tried you would find that Catholics are just normal people. Little words are scary for you boys , your inferirity complex is amazing. Only mixing with people who wear sashes affects your thinking, you need to get out more.
So why did the SNP issue a grovelling apology at the weekend ?
"“Mr O’Hara acknowledges that in the past he used a derogatory term commonly used about Rangers supporters. It is not a term he would use any longer as thankfully football culture in Scotland has moved on from those days. He would apologise for any offence it caused.” "
Hope he is sure of the "any longer" .. perhaps they meant "since he was caught".
Gordon Brown is campaigning in Sheffield today. I'm informed he''ll be giving a speech on current affairs, visiting a new housing development with Harry Harpham (Labour candidate for Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough), and doing a Q&A on British values with David Blunkett and 40 schoolchildren.
Sheffield is pretty safe territory for Gordon Brown. There's a always a chance something will go wrong - e.g getting flummoxed by an unexpected question from one of the children, or making some kid cry with his brusque dismissal of them - but overall, this should be an uncontroversial visit, with minimal effect on the national campaign.
How will Labour MPs feel about Gordon Brown campaigning in safe Labour seats? Would they rather see him appear in a marginal, or would they be worried he might be a liability? After all, if the floating voters in the marginals liked Gordon Brown, he'd probably still be in No 10.
Gordon Brown is campaigning in Sheffield today. I'm informed he''ll be giving a speech on current affairs, visiting a new housing development with Harry Harpham (Labour candidate for Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough), and doing a Q&A on British values with David Blunkett and 40 schoolchildren.
Sheffield is pretty safe territory for Gordon Brown. There's a always a chance something will go wrong - e.g getting flummoxed by an unexpected question from one of the children, or making some kid cry with his brusque dismissal of them - but overall, this should be an uncontroversial visit, with minimal effect on the national campaign.
How will Labour MPs feel about Gordon Brown campaigning in safe Labour seats? Would they rather see him appear in a marginal, or would they be worried he might be a liability? After all, if the floating voters in the marginals liked Gordon Brown, he'd probably still be in No 10.
He's coming to Hallam as well.
That's going to galvanise the Tories to vote tactically for Clegg
One of the most told and well worn jokes in Scottish politics is the question of more panda than Tories. I was struck yesterday on Murnihan on Sky when Alex Salmond suggested that the Tory anti-Scottish campaign was about to settle this contest as PANDAS 2 TORIES 0.
And so I had a look for the evidence from the daily YouGov a poll which has shown no discernable impact at UK level of the Tory assault on Labour and the SNP.
Uintil the last week the Tories support in the Scottish sub samples has been chugging along in the high teens - not brilliant but enough to entertain hopes of preventing a wipeout.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
There is no love lost between Tories and the SNP and this is of great benefit to the Tories here. The fight in Scotland is between the SNP and the rest. If you vote Tory you know you will not get the SNP through the backdoor. The unionist voters are older and richer and more likely to vote. It is not outside the realms of possibility to see the Tories get 20% or more of the vote in Scotland. While this may not get them many MPs it does put them in a good place for the Scottish election next year.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
Well in Argyll and Bute it's for a left winger who isn't a bigot.
A loser you mean , what a joke to imagine labour would have a left winger as a candidate.
Was this stuff dug up by the Daily Record by any chance.
Front page May 7th:
VOTE LABOUR OR ELSE
Rest of front page:
"Shocking new research reveals that the SNP will vote FOR a Conservative Gov't"
"Please vote Labour, please please please we beg you. The SNP will let the evil Tory baby eaters in. Please vote Labour, please. Dougie and Jimmy beg you. PLlleeeeeeeeeeeeease"
This is the Alex Salmond who took the SNP from next to nothing to 30 per cent plus in 2007, to majority government at 40 per cent plus in 2011 and to 45 per cent in 2014 in the referendum. I think that many of us up here found him more credible than the shower you have to choose from.
Rocks is too busy thinking Gordon is the Messiah and Labour are great. Last of the dodo's.
Nope, just getting some work done. And I'm not sure the people of Gordon believe firmly enough that Eck is the next messiah. Certainly the majority of the Scottish electorate didn't last September. 55 to 45% wasn't it?
If Salmond had won by 1 vote, he would have declared a Victory for Independence and to hell with the nay sayers, quislings and traitors.
And now he wants awa' back tae the Big Parliament. You couldn't make it up.
Salmond must miss the expenses. Still, it's going to be fun watching Sturgeon try to yank his chain.
You really are as stupid as you make out, he is still an MSP, has 6 pensions , various exit fees etc , he has little need of expenses.
He's a classic Scotsman, loathe to open his own wallet, when someone else will pay for the curry.
Also, it ain't going to be much fun for Ed running a government on those figures.
If he doesn't get the LDs to support a Lab-SNP pact (of whatever sort) then he's relying on the PC/SDLP/Green odds and sods, and would still be short of an overall majority even then.
If the LDs go into opposition with the Tories then they have an "ambush" minority of 310 seats. It'd only take 6 Labour or SNP MPs to break ranks or abstain to block legislation.
Casino - I think you're forgetting that there's a majority of the LibDem Parliamentary party who are longing, just longing I tell you to get into bed with Labour and who will grab such an opportunity once they are free of the shackles of Clegg as their leader or probably even sooner if possible.
You know very little about the Lib Dems and LibDem Parliamentary party do you ?
Mark
Are you saying there is an appetite to continue the coalition with the conservatives?
Actually, I think there was some polling that said that was a preferred option, or did I imagine it?
So why did the SNP issue a grovelling apology at the weekend ?
Any word on your assertion from yesterday that it's illegal to call someone a Hun in Scotland? A friend in a WWI re-enactment group is now very worried about using the term.
Among the unusual feedback from election emails I got this one today from someone I'd written to as Ms ... rather than "Sally":
"I also really appreciate your use of formal address, given that we've never met. I know that's quite trivial, but it does make me feel that you respect me as an equal. Thank you."
I'm conscious that many younger people don't even know the last names of their friends, but it still irritates me a bit when parties and NGOs send me computer-generated stuff saying "Nick, you can help change the future of..." The unsolicited chumminess strikes an entirely false note to my ears. Is that a common view, or just a fusty anachronism? Presumably it's all market-researched...
'Absolute crap. The last significant change that improved living in Central London was the congestion charge. Other than that it's got more crowded and less easy to live in. It was at it's worst in the 80's and early 90's and improved a lot over the next 10 years when the cardboard boxes moved out.'
How would you know as you told us that if Boris won you would leave London ?
So why did the SNP issue a grovelling apology at the weekend ?
Any word on your assertion from yesterday that it's illegal to call someone a Hun in Scotland? A friend in a WWI re-enactment group is now very worried about using the term.
At a dinner party no - at a football match - well they make it up as they go along.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
Well in Argyll and Bute it's for a left winger who isn't a bigot.
A loser you mean , what a joke to imagine labour would have a left winger as a candidate.
Well rather a loser than a vile republican. Some of the screenshots of other social media formats are out there - the grovelling apology at the weekend may be the first of many...
Dear Dear Harry, you need to get that loser chip off your shoulder. If you tried you would find that Catholics are just normal people. Little words are scary for you boys , your inferirity complex is amazing. Only mixing with people who wear sashes affects your thinking, you need to get out more.
So why did the SNP issue a grovelling apology at the weekend ?
Harry, stop kidding yourself, on these matters even though you have done nothing , you still have to grovel and apologise that is politics today. He is still there and when elected will Labour still be whinging and crying. The frothing that is going on in the media is pathetic , The daily Retard/ Daily Heil are hilarious.
PS: Both sides with their pathetic "Hun" and "Tim" etc are pathetic cretins , it is only a football team for F**** sake, they all need to get over the chips they carry and get a life. Luckily they are a dying breed on both sides in Scotland, will be a great day when they are extinct.
Gordon Brown is campaigning in Sheffield today. I'm informed he''ll be giving a speech on current affairs, visiting a new housing development with Harry Harpham (Labour candidate for Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough), and doing a Q&A on British values with David Blunkett and 40 schoolchildren.
Sheffield is pretty safe territory for Gordon Brown. There's a always a chance something will go wrong - e.g getting flummoxed by an unexpected question from one of the children, or making some kid cry with his brusque dismissal of them - but overall, this should be an uncontroversial visit, with minimal effect on the national campaign.
How will Labour MPs feel about Gordon Brown campaigning in safe Labour seats? Would they rather see him appear in a marginal, or would they be worried he might be a liability? After all, if the floating voters in the marginals liked Gordon Brown, he'd probably still be in No 10.
Wonder if he will end foodbanks in England as successfully as he has in Scotland.
Among the unusual feedback from election emails I got this one today from someone I'd written to as Ms ... rather than "Sally":
"I also really appreciate your use of formal address, given that we've never met. I know that's quite trivial, but it does make me feel that you respect me as an equal. Thank you."
I'm conscious that many younger people don't even know the last names of their friends, but it still irritates me a bit when parties and NGOs send me computer-generated stuff saying "Nick, you can help change the future of..." The unsolicited chumminess strikes an entirely false note to my ears. Is that a common view, or just a fusty anachronism? Presumably it's all market-researched...
This might be the first time I've ever agreed with you on anything. Well said.
This is the Alex Salmond who took the SNP from next to nothing to 30 per cent plus in 2007, to majority government at 40 per cent plus in 2011 and to 45 per cent in 2014 in the referendum. I think that many of us up here found him more credible than the shower you have to choose from.
Rocks is too busy thinking Gordon is the Messiah and Labour are great. Last of the dodo's.
Nope, just getting some work done. And I'm not sure the people of Gordon believe firmly enough that Eck is the next messiah. Certainly the majority of the Scottish electorate didn't last September. 55 to 45% wasn't it?
If Salmond had won by 1 vote, he would have declared a Victory for Independence and to hell with the nay sayers, quislings and traitors.
And now he wants awa' back tae the Big Parliament. You couldn't make it up.
Your only respite is to take succour of your phyrric victory with your Tory twins. Now they have abandoned you as the losers you are the chickens are about to come home to roost. Alex and many others in Westminster and the goon squad out on their erses. You would not have believed it after that wonderful Tory victory in September.
Ah! Democracy in action. One man, one vote and that man is Alec Salmond.
Proably not a secret to comment that EiT is as usual right - there was a deliberate strategy to have a quiet manifesto setting the framework (essentially no reckless economics) and then a new announcement every couple of days, which under election coverage practice means decent coverage for each policy in turn, instead of one day's orgy.
On the other hand it's intellectually dishonest and means the Salisbury Convention won't apply.
Where's the intellectual dishonesty? I mean, it's not like they're trying to avoid scrutiny of the policy - the goal will be to get more coverage, and it'll also result in more criticism.
If the Lords really are going to stick their noses in, that actually doesn't sound like a bad thing; I mean, aren't these little populist crowd-pleasers just the kind of thing that a second chamber should be scrutinising and checking for adverse consequences?
You write a manifesto, it gets costed by the IFS etc. and people have already postal-voted on that basis. And then, after the event, people refer back to the manifesto to pledge-check.
I don't have a problem with the Lords sticking their noses in, but the fact that the (presumably popular) policy is now less deliverable because of that is probably lost on the electorate who may vote for it.
Fairy nuff, you've convinced me.
Wow, first time ever on pb that someone has convinced someone else of something?!
No, I remember somebody convinced me of something before, although it turned out to be wrong.
"Home builders' share price plunges in response to Labour housing plans"
Ed really doesn't have a clue, does he understand that these evil shareholders of housebuilders, banks and utilities are yours and my pensions - but not his of course, we all pay taxes for that.
'I'm conscious that many younger people don't even know the last names of their friends, but it still irritates me a bit when parties and NGOs send me computer-generated stuff saying "Nick, you can help change the future of..." The unsolicited chumminess strikes an entirely false note to my ears. Is that a common view, or just a fusty anachronism? Presumably it's all market-researched...'
Spot on, at last something you've said I agree with!
This is the Alex Salmond who took the SNP from next to nothing to 30 per cent plus in 2007, to majority government at 40 per cent plus in 2011 and to 45 per cent in 2014 in the referendum. I think that many of us up here found him more credible than the shower you have to choose from.
Rocks is too busy thinking Gordon is the Messiah and Labour are great. Last of the dodo's.
Nope, just getting some work done. And I'm not sure the people of Gordon believe firmly enough that Eck is the next messiah. Certainly the majority of the Scottish electorate didn't last September. 55 to 45% wasn't it?
If Salmond had won by 1 vote, he would have declared a Victory for Independence and to hell with the nay sayers, quislings and traitors.
And now he wants awa' back tae the Big Parliament. You couldn't make it up.
Salmond must miss the expenses. Still, it's going to be fun watching Sturgeon try to yank his chain.
You really are as stupid as you make out, he is still an MSP, has 6 pensions , various exit fees etc , he has little need of expenses.
Mr. Calum, I've been confident of SNP success prior to the short campaign, but even so, exceeding 50 would be a staggeringly good result.
It would be pretty surprising for the SNP to fall short of 50 given what we know now. To get to 10 non-SNP seats would be something like: Orkney & Shetland Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross The three Borders seats Edinburgh West Edinburgh South Glasgow NE Jo Swinson's seat That's nine and now I'm struggling and I only have the last one on the list because it's repeatedly mentioned on here. Ashcroft doesn't give her a chance.
Among the unusual feedback from election emails I got this one today from someone I'd written to as Ms ... rather than "Sally":
"I also really appreciate your use of formal address, given that we've never met. I know that's quite trivial, but it does make me feel that you respect me as an equal. Thank you."
I'm conscious that many younger people don't even know the last names of their friends, but it still irritates me a bit when parties and NGOs send me computer-generated stuff saying "Nick, you can help change the future of..." The unsolicited chumminess strikes an entirely false note to my ears. Is that a common view, or just a fusty anachronism? Presumably it's all market-researched...
Ms even worse IMO but that's why you're a labour candidate and I vote Ukip!
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
Well in Argyll and Bute it's for a left winger who isn't a bigot.
A loser you mean , what a joke to imagine labour would have a left winger as a candidate.
Well rather a loser than a vile republican. Some of the screenshots of other social media formats are out there - the grovelling apology at the weekend may be the first of many...
Dear Dear Harry, you need to get that loser chip off your shoulder. If you tried you would find that Catholics are just normal people. Little words are scary for you boys , your inferirity complex is amazing. Only mixing with people who wear sashes affects your thinking, you need to get out more.
So why did the SNP issue a grovelling apology at the weekend ?
Harry, stop kidding yourself, on these matters even though you have done nothing , you still have to grovel and apologise that is politics today. He is still there and when elected will Labour still be whinging and crying. The frothing that is going on in the media is pathetic , The daily Retard/ Daily Heil are hilarious.
PS: Both sides with their pathetic "Hun" and "Tim" etc are pathetic cretins , it is only a football team for F**** sake, they all need to get over the chips they carry and get a life. Luckily they are a dying breed on both sides in Scotland, will be a great day when they are extinct.
Gordon Brown is campaigning in Sheffield today. I'm informed he''ll be giving a speech on current affairs, visiting a new housing development with Harry Harpham (Labour candidate for Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough), and doing a Q&A on British values with David Blunkett and 40 schoolchildren.
Sheffield is pretty safe territory for Gordon Brown. There's a always a chance something will go wrong - e.g getting flummoxed by an unexpected question from one of the children, or making some kid cry with his brusque dismissal of them - but overall, this should be an uncontroversial visit, with minimal effect on the national campaign.
How will Labour MPs feel about Gordon Brown campaigning in safe Labour seats? Would they rather see him appear in a marginal, or would they be worried he might be a liability? After all, if the floating voters in the marginals liked Gordon Brown, he'd probably still be in No 10.
He's coming to Hallam as well.
That's going to galvanise the Tories to vote tactically for Clegg
One of the most told and well worn jokes in Scottish politics is the question of more panda than Tories. I was struck yesterday on Murnihan on Sky when Alex Salmond suggested that the Tory anti-Scottish campaign was about to settle this contest as PANDAS 2 TORIES 0.
And so I had a look for the evidence from the daily YouGov a poll which has shown no discernable impact at UK level of the Tory assault on Labour and the SNP.
Uintil the last week the Tories support in the Scottish sub samples has been chugging along in the high teens - not brilliant but enough to entertain hopes of preventing a wipeout.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
Well in Argyll and Bute it's for a left winger who isn't a bigot.
A loser you mean , what a joke to imagine labour would have a left winger as a candidate.
Was this stuff dug up by the Daily Record by any chance.
Front page May 7th:
VOTE LABOUR OR ELSE
Rest of front page:
"Shocking new research reveals that the SNP will vote FOR a Conservative Gov't"
"Please vote Labour, please please please we beg you. The SNP will let the evil Tory baby eaters in. Please vote Labour, please. Dougie and Jimmy beg you. PLlleeeeeeeeeeeeease"
LOL, must have been written for them as there are some big words in there that their journalists would struggle with. Looks like a labour press release for sure.
This is the Alex Salmond who took the SNP from next to nothing to 30 per cent plus in 2007, to majority government at 40 per cent plus in 2011 and to 45 per cent in 2014 in the referendum. I think that many of us up here found him more credible than the shower you have to choose from.
Rocks is too busy thinking Gordon is the Messiah and Labour are great. Last of the dodo's.
Nope, just getting some work done. And I'm not sure the people of Gordon believe firmly enough that Eck is the next messiah. Certainly the majority of the Scottish electorate didn't last September. 55 to 45% wasn't it?
If Salmond had won by 1 vote, he would have declared a Victory for Independence and to hell with the nay sayers, quislings and traitors.
And now he wants awa' back tae the Big Parliament. You couldn't make it up.
Your only respite is to take succour of your phyrric victory with your Tory twins. Now they have abandoned you as the losers you are the chickens are about to come home to roost. Alex and many others in Westminster and the goon squad out on their erses. You would not have believed it after that wonderful Tory victory in September.
Ah! Democracy in action. One man, one vote and that man is Alec Salmond.
You labour drones do not like being thrashed do you, democracy scares you ........... Ha Ha Ha
Gordon Brown is campaigning in Sheffield today. I'm informed he''ll be giving a speech on current affairs, visiting a new housing development with Harry Harpham (Labour candidate for Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough), and doing a Q&A on British values with David Blunkett and 40 schoolchildren.
Sheffield is pretty safe territory for Gordon Brown. There's a always a chance something will go wrong - e.g getting flummoxed by an unexpected question from one of the children, or making some kid cry with his brusque dismissal of them - but overall, this should be an uncontroversial visit, with minimal effect on the national campaign.
How will Labour MPs feel about Gordon Brown campaigning in safe Labour seats? Would they rather see him appear in a marginal, or would they be worried he might be a liability? After all, if the floating voters in the marginals liked Gordon Brown, he'd probably still be in No 10.
He's coming to Hallam as well.
That's going to galvanise the Tories to vote tactically for Clegg
Me thinks looking at the Betfair markets that Ukip over 3.5 at odds against won't last long
Are they [UKIP] favs in 4 seats?
I have them to win in Clacton, Thanet S and Thurrock. 50% chance in Thanet N. 33% chance in Castle P and Grimsby. 16% chance in Great Yarmouth.
Overall, I have them down for four seats.
There are surely lots more you have higher than 16% and 33% even?
Rochester & Boston for instance? SouthBasildon, Cannock chase, Dudley North, rotherham
UKIP taking Dudley North and Rotherham/ Rother Valley would be three serious arrows in Ed's hopes of being PM. No one seems to be factoring in possible Labour-UKIP losses (direct or indirect) and in such a tight election as this 3 or 4 could be enough to keep Cameron in (if the LDs stay with the Tories and the DUP/ UKIP provide confidence/ Supply.)
Magnus Gardham @GardhamHT 8 mins8 minutes ago Put the latest TNS figures through the Scotland Votes online seat forecaster and you get SNP 57, Lab 1, LD 1
Another weekend of Mail/Express/Tele/Lynton hysteria and we'll be in whitewash territory.
Now look at the last five ending in today's just published sub sample 17-14-15-15-11. They are sub samples etc etc but it is at least arguable that the one discernable impact of the Crosby attack dog anti-Scottish nonsense will be - to wipeout the Scottish Tory!
Or you could look at the full Scotland poll conducted in the last week that sees the Tories up 2 in Scotland.
I'm surprised at that. I imagined most existing scottish tory voters would detest the snp and all it stands for.
Yep - what on earth is a vote for Labour for in Scotland now one has to ask.
Well in Argyll and Bute it's for a left winger who isn't a bigot.
A loser you mean , what a joke to imagine labour would have a left winger as a candidate.
Well rather a loser than a vile republican. Some of the screenshots of other social media formats are out there - the grovelling apology at the weekend may be the first of many...
Dear Dear Harry, you need to get that loser chip off your shoulder. If you tried you would find that Catholics are just normal people. Little words are scary for you boys , your inferirity complex is amazing. Only mixing with people who wear sashes affects your thinking, you need to get out more.
So why did the SNP issue a grovelling apology at the weekend ?
Harry, stop kidding yourself, on these matters even though you have done nothing , you still have to grovel and apologise that is politics today. He is still there and when elected will Labour still be whinging and crying. The frothing that is going on in the media is pathetic , The daily Retard/ Daily Heil are hilarious.
PS: Both sides with their pathetic "Hun" and "Tim" etc are pathetic cretins , it is only a football team for F**** sake, they all need to get over the chips they carry and get a life. Luckily they are a dying breed on both sides in Scotland, will be a great day when they are extinct.
SF gain Argyll and Bute.
harry, you really are bitter , you will have HammyAce saying the Tories will save the day shortly.
Comments
Seriously - I just cannot imagine Johnson as Prime Minister. The other countries would take him as seriously as the Minister for the Swiss Navy or the Greek Minister of Finance.
The Greens reach a new low!
Not saying that I would charge, but I think people are a bit quick to get on the outrage bus about it without thinking through the episode in its entirety.
https://twitter.com/auntysarah/status/592618815759908866
50% chance in Thanet N.
33% chance in Castle P and Grimsby.
16% chance in Great Yarmouth.
Overall, I have them down for four seats.
Source - Sun report herein -
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-bonfire-of-policies/
Note from Mandelson’s firm warns that SNP will drag Labour to the left
http://bit.ly/1djdyBC
Cripes.
This is wrong.
Yes, of course it is true that he is slightly to the left of Cameron, and is even more a representative of the metropolitan mindset than Cameron. In addition his private life has been a little more colourful than would normally be considered desirable by upright Tory ladies in the shires. From that point of view, you might think members wouldn't vote for him, but the fact is that he is incredibly popular - especially amongst those upright Tory ladies.
His biggest obstacle would be getting through the MPs' stage to get to be one of the two candidates put to members. Those MPs will take a hard-headed approach on this; the criterion will basically be whether he's considered a winner.
If he were to get through to the members' ballot, it would depend on who the alternative candidate was, but he'd have a very good chance.
Overall, he's by no means a shoo-in, but he's certainly one of the front-runners.
I think the biggest obstacle is that he's probably not the right person to extend the Conservative vote in the Midlands and North.
After the election we'll have a lot of data, of course, but by then it will be too late for this one.
As for the Salisbury Convention, are the Lords going to make trouble about some minor little rent tinker? (More detail on how minor the little rent tinker is here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/04/27/britain-goes-wild-as-ed-miliband-proposes-rent-controls/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter )
If the Lords really are going to stick their noses in, that actually doesn't sound like a bad thing; I mean, aren't these little populist crowd-pleasers just the kind of thing that a second chamber should be scrutinising and checking for adverse consequences?
Seeing/hearing both Murphy and Alexander it is unbelievable how practiced they are at lying but come across as shifty snake oil salesmen, both creepy.
Hypothetically a party could be favourites in zero seats and over 100.5 would be value
If Salmond had won by 1 vote, he would have declared a Victory for Independence and to hell with the nay sayers, quislings and traitors.
And now he wants awa' back tae the Big Parliament. You couldn't make it up.
Rochester & Boston for instance? SouthBasildon, Cannock chase, Dudley North, rotherham
I think it is 600k a year to rent them -- and you look after the food and the medical bills (100k a year) and build them a panda enclosure (300k).
I don’t know what happens if the pandas are killed -- probably there is a supermassive fine for the Scots (like ceding Orkney and Shetland to China).
In terms of the SNP surge, I think it will propel the SNP to getting over 50% on the 7th, whether tactical voting can mitigate any of this surge will no doubt be the subject of many academic studies for years to come !!
If only Lab or SNP can win
Tories split Con 47 Lab 44 LD 1 SNP 8
Lib Dems split Con 5 Lab 55 LD 29 SNP 9
If only Con or SNP can win
Labour split Con 24 Lab 41 LD 0 SNP 31
Lib Dems split Con 56 Lab 1 LD 30 SNP 11
If only LD or SNP can win
Tories split Con 45 Lab 0 LD 49 SNP 6
Labour split Con 1 Lab 37 LD 35 SNP 25
All this is largely theoretical I think, and will already be baked into some of the Ashcrofts in the obvious two-party contests like Glasgow.
Mr. Calum, I've been confident of SNP success prior to the short campaign, but even so, exceeding 50 would be a staggeringly good result.
Also things like the newsnight index, BJESUS etc which put Ukip at 1 seat by using analysis that went out of fashion with political correctness
I don't have a problem with the Lords sticking their noses in, but the fact that the (presumably popular) policy is now less deliverable because of that is probably lost on the electorate who may vote for it.
I was there last week,lots of SDLP signs,some Alliance.
I didn't see any DUP
Far easier to deride people who don't vote for Tory MPs as victims of a Labour client state than to be self-critical.
"Home builders' share price plunges in response to Labour housing plans"
"“Mr O’Hara acknowledges that in the past he used a derogatory term commonly used about Rangers supporters. It is not a term he would use any longer as thankfully football culture in Scotland has moved on from those days. He would apologise for any offence it caused.” "
Hope he is sure of the "any longer" .. perhaps they meant "since he was caught".
Sheffield is pretty safe territory for Gordon Brown. There's a always a chance something will go wrong - e.g getting flummoxed by an unexpected question from one of the children, or making some kid cry with his brusque dismissal of them - but overall, this should be an uncontroversial visit, with minimal effect on the national campaign.
How will Labour MPs feel about Gordon Brown campaigning in safe Labour seats? Would they rather see him appear in a marginal, or would they be worried he might be a liability? After all, if the floating voters in the marginals liked Gordon Brown, he'd probably still be in No 10.
That's going to galvanise the Tories to vote tactically for Clegg
Front page May 7th:
VOTE LABOUR OR ELSE
Rest of front page:
"Shocking new research reveals that the SNP will vote FOR a Conservative Gov't"
"Please vote Labour, please please please we beg you. The SNP will let the evil Tory baby eaters in. Please vote Labour, please. Dougie and Jimmy beg you. PLlleeeeeeeeeeeeease"
Are you saying there is an appetite to continue the coalition with the conservatives?
Actually, I think there was some polling that said that was a preferred option, or did I imagine it?
"I also really appreciate your use of formal address, given that we've never met. I know that's quite trivial, but it does make me feel that you respect me as an equal. Thank you."
I'm conscious that many younger people don't even know the last names of their friends, but it still irritates me a bit when parties and NGOs send me computer-generated stuff saying "Nick, you can help change the future of..." The unsolicited chumminess strikes an entirely false note to my ears. Is that a common view, or just a fusty anachronism? Presumably it's all market-researched...
'Absolute crap. The last significant change that improved living in Central London was the congestion charge. Other than that it's got more crowded and less easy to live in. It was at it's worst in the 80's and early 90's and improved a lot over the next 10 years when the cardboard boxes moved out.'
How would you know as you told us that if Boris won you would leave London ?
SNP 54% (+2), Lab 22% (-2), Con 13% (0), LD 6% (0), Green 2% (-1), UKIP 2% (+1)
http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/tns-poll-momentum-is-still-with-the-snp-but-many-remain-undecided
PS: Both sides with their pathetic "Hun" and "Tim" etc are pathetic cretins , it is only a football team for F**** sake, they all need to get over the chips they carry and get a life. Luckily they are a dying breed on both sides in Scotland, will be a great day when they are extinct.
'I'm conscious that many younger people don't even know the last names of their friends, but it still irritates me a bit when parties and NGOs send me computer-generated stuff saying "Nick, you can help change the future of..." The unsolicited chumminess strikes an entirely false note to my ears. Is that a common view, or just a fusty anachronism? Presumably it's all market-researched...'
Spot on, at last something you've said I agree with!
Orkney & Shetland
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
The three Borders seats
Edinburgh West
Edinburgh South
Glasgow NE
Jo Swinson's seat
That's nine and now I'm struggling and I only have the last one on the list because it's repeatedly mentioned on here. Ashcroft doesn't give her a chance.
SNP seat rush @ 42 points.
You cop a tiny loss at 45 seats, bit more 40-44 (Which even Jack's ARSE has them on)
I'm on at £2/pt @ 40 and reckon its a winner.
Mainland sweep settles at 80.
Put the latest TNS figures through the Scotland Votes online seat forecaster and you get SNP 57, Lab 1, LD 1
Another weekend of Mail/Express/Tele/Lynton hysteria and we'll be in whitewash territory.
This happened in Colorado https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlZh9-NQEyI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQe6RZ39eNo
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/592632270663655424
Its interesting. I saw a tweet Farage advised supporters to go blue where he can;t win (EG Peterborough).
On the other hand, Nuttall claimed UKIP are the only opposition to labour in the North.
Are we starting to see signs the right leaning parties starting to co-ordinate?
Blame labour, blame the the tories, blame the SNP, it's dead... moving to a federal system is the only way to save the country.
Brand new four bed town house as first house - not bad going - a fair step up from my first house!!!