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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This could have been the moment when Boris lost the next CON leadership contest
For me one of the best bits of TV during the campaign was at the end of yesterday’s Andrew Marr show when the programme’s two main participants traditionally join each other on the site for the closing couple of minutes. This time it was Boris and Ed and the wide judgement was that the Mayor lost.
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Would be like the LDs electing Lembit Opik, or Labour electing Chris Bryant...
He's one of those guys that's been blessed with just *too* much natural talent, and as a consequence doesn't graft as much as he should.
His true appeal (other than universal comedy value) is probably limited to those of similar rarefied background and Woosterish demeanor...
Also Boris is an effective politician and will probably be able to find a better fight to pick and move people's attention to that.
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
Dave 80%
Boris 5%
May 5%
Hammond 5%
Other 5%
Our next PM may well be chosen by the men in suits.
10 days to go and it's starting to look likely. Wasn't he supposed to collapse under the media attacks?
He would probably make a good deputy, but has way too many skeletons for the top job and his blustery funnyman image would only work so far in that role - although it works well as Mayor of London.
If Dave resigns after the election, there's plenty of more suitable candidates such as Hammond & May, even a relative outsider such as Javid would be way better than Boris - and would really annoy the politically correct right-on on the Labour benches!
Lots of people are talking about the SNP issue. Wonder if were gonna see a '92 again?
The skeletons in the closet stuff only really matters if he has to win an election before becoming PM.
He may not have to.
And actually, what was most revealing about the exchange yesterday was Johnson's losing his temper for a moment while Ed remained calm. He is so used to the fawning adulation of the media that he just does not know what to say or do when asked a straightforward question that requires a straightforward answer.
Boris is fun, Boris is charming, Boris is intelligent, but Boris is not PM material.
If he doesn't get the LDs to support a Lab-SNP pact (of whatever sort) then he's relying on the PC/SDLP/Green odds and sods, and would still be short of an overall majority even then.
If the LDs go into opposition with the Tories then they have an "ambush" minority of 310 seats. It'd only take 6 Labour or SNP MPs to break ranks or abstain to block legislation.
Who were you before?
Wouldn't you?
Am I correct in saying that the process hasn't changed since Cameron was elected, i.e. that the MPs will put two names to a ballot of the membership?
Was there anything like 1992 before?
IIRC there was an election in, I think the 50’s (when admittedly polling was nowhere near as sophisticated as today), where there was a large number of Don’t Knows who, again IIRC, voted Tory.
Hasn’t BoJo’s many supposed party leadership bids already been dismissed a hundred on PB over the years?
He may be a well-liked colourful chap, with an equally colourful past, but I doubt h'de go to second round in a leadership vote.
Boris is none of these things. He's very urban, pro EU, pro gay marraige and a lot of skeletons in his background (The Ms Wyatt affair and the abortion he paid for etc etc).
He's not the type the (~130,000) members will vote for at all
Hammond and May seem to me in contrast to appeal to no one but Tories and that is a problem as Cameron will have empirically proven there are not enough of them to win. I think that would be one of the many potential problems for Osborne as well.
The Tories do best when they go outside the box. Thatcher as the first woman and Major as the Brixton boy made good are recent examples. I think they will try to do so again.
But yeah, the idea that when the voters discovered what Ed Miliband was really like they'd swing against Lab isn't going well. Not surprising - it fits a pattern that hardly ever pans out:
1) I'm right.
2) The ignorant masses are wrong.
3) They will come realize that I'm right, and truth and reason will prevail.
A second common factor is disappearing electors (before 92 from poll tax avoidance, this time from individual registrations).
John Major had some headroom. He lost 40 seats to Kinnock but retained a majority. Cameron has no headroom and needs to gain 40 seats to get the same size majority as Major had from 92-97.
The fundamental issue the Tories have to grasp is where are they going to find 10% of the vote from, to get anywhere near a majority, which comes down to the kippers or the centre ground, and the centre ground is looking crowded, especially if a post-Clegg LD party starts to recover in opposition. Most centrists are anti-austerity, so they will be voting for a Farron LD Party or voting LAB, so I am not sure there is that much to gain there. On the other hand courting the kippers is going to be heavy going with so many Cameroon's in key positions in the party.
It says that Betfair indicates a 37.2% probability of a Labour minority, a 14.3% probability of a Tory minority and a 20.5% probability of a continuation of the Coalition. In other words a Labour minority is nearly twice as likely as any of the alternatives. Is this right?
Opinion polls have been shown to be remarkably accurate in the past decade. It takes a very brave/foolish man to oppose them. People still do of course, and supporters of both parties cling to the notion they might be wrong. But this is more out of desperation than realistic hope,
There won't be a 1992 upset ever again.
Also the economy while recovering a large block of the electorate still don't feel it. Too many people still (wrongly) look at Cameron and Osborne as out of touch toffs looking out for the interests of their rich chums only. I don't see where any huge swing to the blues can come from - even if we ignore postal votes for a moment.
Knives ready at any rate
I'm getting tired of telling you - #Priti4Leader
http://bbc.in/1DrUOVr
This is actually news that those outside Northern Ireland should take some notice of. The DUP's views on same sex relationships could be of relevance to the formation of the next government in the UK.
But surely, outside London at least, most first time buyers are buying at less than £125K and therefore don't pay SDLT anyway? Even if they are only just over that the amount they pay will be trivial.
It seems incredible now, but yes that is exactly what happened.
Why would a Party choose IDS over Ken Clarke? How different would things have been had it made the obvious choice?
I voted for Boris to be Mayor and have never regretted it. He's done a fine job. But I'm not a Tory-leaning voter and wouldn't have a vote in a Leadership election. As ASJohnston indicated below "...He's very urban, pro EU, pro gay marraige and [has] a lot of skeletons in his background."
Just like me then. But how appealing would that be to the Voters in a Conservative Leadership Election?
Mike's right. Boris is definitely a sell in that market.
A poll is asking the public whether police in mid and west Wales should carry guns while on "everyday duties".
Dyfed-Powys Police and Crime Commissioner Christopher Salmon is asking for views in an online questionnaire.
At present, 74 officers routinely carry pistols while on everyday tasks.
"I'd like to know if the public want this practice to continue or whether I need to give it further thought," Mr Salmon said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-32422696
Everything to play for, and play to the whistle. NOM is most likely but the exact seats could be crucial in how it pans out afterwards, and could be a springboard to the second election of the year. This of course goes for all the parties.
Irish Unionist votes for English laws?
People with lower back problems are more likely to have a spine similar in shape to the chimpanzee, our closest ape ancestor.
A lesion which forms in the disc between the bones of the spine is the reason for the differing shape.
It would have caused the vertebrae to change as humans evolved from using four legs to two legs.
The researchers say their findings could help doctors predict who may be at risk of back problems.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-32452250
So how many of you have your tails tucked away and love tea?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/26/conservative-party-is-losing-our-support-over-scotland-warns-dup
Con + LD + DUP = 319
Lab + SNP + PC = 319
Who is Dave going to use ?
Galloway ?!!
A few hundred million for Northern Ireland to avoid any cuts would do nicely, in all probability.
But anyway, how come this Labour "pledge" on stamp duty isn't in their manifesto? It's hard enough to trust politicians to deliver their manifesto never mind the stuff that isn't in it!
Priti Patel Vs Justine Greening for the leadership.
In 1992 real earnings were rising much faster than they are now and had been so for over a decade.
Rising inequality and the 'fairness' issue is very damaging to the Conservatives.
Another difference from 1992 is that John Major looked like 'suburban everyman' whereas Kinnock looked like the bloke you'd have a feud with over the garden hedge.
You could have put those two into a 1980s sitcom - 'Terry and June', 'Ever Decreasing Circles' etc.
LOL!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3056593/At-election-passion-love-triangle-sex-change-candidate-lesbian-lovers-represent-Liberal-Democrats-course.html
As for the BBC
@GuidoFawkes: BBC website analysis: Labour’s lines feature prominently and are completely unquestioned. http://t.co/ZVKqhK6oyP http://t.co/iXfdZH5jxh
Priti is an extreme right-wing fruit-cake...
Would the Tory Party vote for a Leader who is probably to the left of Ken Clarke? I doubt it, but it's not my Party and not my call.
If George Osborne decides to stand, he will probably be in the final two, where he will probably lose. He represents too much of a continuation of the current leadership team. Who would he face? Dunno.
I suspect that he knows he's not the man for the job, in which case his endorsement will probably be decisive. There have been a fair few press hints that he's going to back Boris Johnson. If he does, Boris is almost unstoppable.
I suspect that he's still keeping his powder dry and may not have decided himself. That makes all bets on this market unusually risky. Be warned.
Mr. S, either would satisfy me as leader.