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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This could have been the moment when Boris lost the next C

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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    The rule I believe, as established by none other than the Labour Party of which Milliband was a member of the government of the time says you just quote

    "It's just Boris being Boris" ** and then all the main newscasters sweep it under the carpet and pretend it never happened or simply laugh it off.



    ** note - only effective if you are a left of centre of left MP.

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    DavidL said:

    If the limit on this exemption is £300K then for first time buyers the maximum relief is £5000 which in fairness will help when trying to find the deposit.

    But surely, outside London at least, most first time buyers are buying at less than £125K and therefore don't pay SDLT anyway? Even if they are only just over that the amount they pay will be trivial.

    It's been said that the average first time buyer's price is £172,000
    What sort of joint income would a first-time-buying couple need to buy a £300,000 house?
    Labour seems to be favouring the better off, again.
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    antifrank said:

    The unanswered question hanging over the next Conservative leadership contest is WWGD?

    If George Osborne decides to stand, he will probably be in the final two, where he will probably lose. He represents too much of a continuation of the current leadership team. Who would he face? Dunno.

    I suspect that he knows he's not the man for the job, in which case his endorsement will probably be decisive. There have been a fair few press hints that he's going to back Boris Johnson. If he does, Boris is almost unstoppable.

    I suspect that he's still keeping his powder dry and may not have decided himself. That makes all bets on this market unusually risky. Be warned.

    George is going to endorse Sajid Javid.

    Interesting fact. The last favourite to win the Tory leadership election was Harold MacMillan
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    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    Millsy said:

    Of course biased Marr was biased with a leading question on non-doms to start the discussion between Boris and Ed.

    But anyway, how come this Labour "pledge" on stamp duty isn't in their manifesto? It's hard enough to trust politicians to deliver their manifesto never mind the stuff that isn't in it!

    Labour said some policies in the manifesto were held back.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,957

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    We've had a ministerial resignation today:

    http://bbc.in/1DrUOVr

    This is actually news that those outside Northern Ireland should take some notice of. The DUP's views on same sex relationships could be of relevance to the formation of the next government in the UK.

    Dodds's article in today's Grauniad about EV4EL and SNP bashing is probably more relevant.

    The DUP are going to flirt with and rebuff both major parties for as long as they possibly can. Unlike the SNP, they will work with anyone who will give them what they want.

    A few hundred million for Northern Ireland to avoid any cuts would do nicely, in all probability.
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    We've had a ministerial resignation today:

    http://bbc.in/1DrUOVr

    This is actually news that those outside Northern Ireland should take some notice of. The DUP's views on same sex relationships could be of relevance to the formation of the next government in the UK.

    Dodds's article in today's Grauniad about EV4EL and SNP bashing is probably more relevant.

    The DUP are going to flirt with and rebuff both major parties for as long as they possibly can. Unlike the SNP, they will work with anyone who will give them what they want.

    A few hundred million for Northern Ireland to avoid any cuts would do nicely, in all probability.

    The DUP is, above all else, a unionist party. I wonder if EV4EL is a Tory non-negotiable. Would they rather see Labour in office than back down over it? If Labour offers the same treats as the Tories and a preferable constitutional settlement the DUP will clearly have no problem in siding with them.
    The DUP sound alot warmer to Labour than the LDs, of course any Lab-SNP arrangement they will have zero truck with... but does passing the Queen's speech sound as an arrangement ?

    @Neil has reliably informed me the SDLP won't support the Conservatives.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Sean_F said:

    For some reason people forget who Boris was up against in the London mayoral races and just how tainted a candidate Ken Livingstone was. In the accompanying Assembly elections Labour did significantly better than the Tories. Boris has been a decent, bumbling figurehead for London. But that is very different to leadership.

    Ken Livingstone is a formidable opponent. Black voters, and Muslim voters, and left-wingers love him. He is a master at exploiting London's inter-ethnic resentments.
    But by the time Ken stood in 2012, he was damaged goods and well past his sell-past date.

    Any other Labour candidate would have comfortably beaten Boris...
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    We've had a ministerial resignation today:

    http://bbc.in/1DrUOVr

    This is actually news that those outside Northern Ireland should take some notice of. The DUP's views on same sex relationships could be of relevance to the formation of the next government in the UK.

    Dodds's article in today's Grauniad about EV4EL and SNP bashing is probably more relevant.

    The DUP are going to flirt with and rebuff both major parties for as long as they possibly can. Unlike the SNP, they will work with anyone who will give them what they want.

    A few hundred million for Northern Ireland to avoid any cuts would do nicely, in all probability.
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    We've had a ministerial resignation today:

    http://bbc.in/1DrUOVr

    This is actually news that those outside Northern Ireland should take some notice of. The DUP's views on same sex relationships could be of relevance to the formation of the next government in the UK.

    Dodds's article in today's Grauniad about EV4EL and SNP bashing is probably more relevant.

    The DUP are going to flirt with and rebuff both major parties for as long as they possibly can. Unlike the SNP, they will work with anyone who will give them what they want.

    A few hundred million for Northern Ireland to avoid any cuts would do nicely, in all probability.

    The DUP is, above all else, a unionist party. I wonder if EV4EL is a Tory non-negotiable. Would they rather see Labour in office than back down over it? If Labour offers the same treats as the Tories and a preferable constitutional settlement the DUP will clearly have no problem in siding with them.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/26/conservative-party-is-losing-our-support-over-scotland-warns-dup

    Pay more attention to the antepenultimate paragraph than the penultimate paragraph.

    The DUP are past masters at getting the best deal they can for themselves. I have no doubt that they are concerned at the Tory line (which could equally be applied to them). But I also have no doubt that it suits them to see their votes very much up for grabs and needing courting.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Antifrank, is he?

    I'm not so sure. Admittedly, I was initially sceptical of his ability to win the mayoralty, but leading the Conservatives (particularly the Parliamentary Party, which appears to have modelled its behaviour on noble Macedonians in the 4th century BC) is another kettle of monkeys altogether.

    Then there's electoral appeal. Definitely there in the south [parts, at least]. Would Boris sway voters in the Midlands, Yorkshire, Lancashire and Scotland?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    ROFL
    Scott_P said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Priti Patel Vs Justine Greening for the leadership.

    What sort of contest did you have in mind?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    Ed Miliband's latest stamp duty exception for first time buyers up to £300,000 may be good politics but the idea it will be paid for by pursuing tax on landlords and foreign buyers is just an extension to the ever present 'magic money tree' which seems to be growing into a forest of unrealistic expectations

    Yet another idea by people who live in and only associate with those who live in London.

    Outside the M25 300k buys a family home, and (very generally speaking) north of Watford Gap it buys 3 or 4 bedrooms and a nice garden.

    But yet another disingenuous and uncosted promise from the Magic Money Tree. There is room for a valid argument of the left, let us tax more and spend more. What makes Miliband so dangerous is that he thinks he doesn't need to raise taxes generally, or that he can raise them all from an increasingly internationally mobile 'Super Rich' who will just pay up without complaint.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,657
    murali_s said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Priti Patel Vs Justine Greening for the leadership.

    Justine Greening is talented and personable.

    Priti is an extreme right-wing fruit-cake...
    You mean Priti will appeal to the Tory rank and file and bring soft Kippers back on board!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,957
    edited April 2015
    "And the exit polls are in"

    "Now we turn to Graham Brady, Simon Hughes and Frank Field."
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    The unanswered question hanging over the next Conservative leadership contest is WWGD?

    If George Osborne decides to stand, he will probably be in the final two, where he will probably lose. He represents too much of a continuation of the current leadership team. Who would he face? Dunno.

    I suspect that he knows he's not the man for the job, in which case his endorsement will probably be decisive. There have been a fair few press hints that he's going to back Boris Johnson. If he does, Boris is almost unstoppable.

    I suspect that he's still keeping his powder dry and may not have decided himself. That makes all bets on this market unusually risky. Be warned.

    George is going to endorse Sajid Javid.

    Interesting fact. The last favourite to win the Tory leadership election was Harold MacMillan
    For my own betting and tipping purposes, I hope you're right. But George Osborne is by some way the most unreadable major politician around at the moment. It's extraordinary how elusive such a prominent man can be.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,941
    Sean_F said:

    For some reason people forget who Boris was up against in the London mayoral races and just how tainted a candidate Ken Livingstone was. In the accompanying Assembly elections Labour did significantly better than the Tories. Boris has been a decent, bumbling figurehead for London. But that is very different to leadership.

    Ken Livingstone is a formidable opponent. Black voters, and Muslim voters, and left-wingers love him. He is a master at exploiting London's inter-ethnic resentments.

    Not so sure about that. By 2012 Ken was a tired, discredited figure who had alienated many traditional Labour voters. Boris has clearly not turned London Tory. Labour won the Assembly vote, which surely indicates the mayoral election was personality driven. And when you have that, you have to assess both personalities to understand the outcome - not just one.

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    antifrank said:

    The unanswered question hanging over the next Conservative leadership contest is WWGD?

    If George Osborne decides to stand, he will probably be in the final two, where he will probably lose. He represents too much of a continuation of the current leadership team. Who would he face? Dunno.

    I suspect that he knows he's not the man for the job, in which case his endorsement will probably be decisive. There have been a fair few press hints that he's going to back Boris Johnson. If he does, Boris is almost unstoppable.

    I suspect that he's still keeping his powder dry and may not have decided himself. That makes all bets on this market unusually risky. Be warned.

    George is going to endorse Sajid Javid.

    Interesting fact. The last favourite to win the Tory leadership election was Harold MacMillan
    This is definitely a lay-the-favourite market. Who would have bet on Cameron as Howard stood down in 2005?

    Surely the circumstances in which George takes over are when DC stands down at a time of his choosing, rather than when given the middle finger by the electorate?
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    The limit of 300,000 k on Stamp Duty will have the effect of price rises in the lower priced housing groups.

    Indeed. Sellers will add it to the price, knowing that the buyers would have likely budgeted for it anyway.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,957
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    The unanswered question hanging over the next Conservative leadership contest is WWGD?

    If George Osborne decides to stand, he will probably be in the final two, where he will probably lose. He represents too much of a continuation of the current leadership team. Who would he face? Dunno.

    I suspect that he knows he's not the man for the job, in which case his endorsement will probably be decisive. There have been a fair few press hints that he's going to back Boris Johnson. If he does, Boris is almost unstoppable.

    I suspect that he's still keeping his powder dry and may not have decided himself. That makes all bets on this market unusually risky. Be warned.

    George is going to endorse Sajid Javid.

    Interesting fact. The last favourite to win the Tory leadership election was Harold MacMillan
    For my own betting and tipping purposes, I hope you're right. But George Osborne is by some way the most unreadable major politician around at the moment. It's extraordinary how elusive such a prominent man can be.
    He's a better strategist than Lynton can ever dream to be.
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    murali s.. My own experiences ..having lived and worked there for forty years..it has improved immeasurably.

    That's my experience too, Richard.

    There is still room for improvement though. Indeed there are parts of the City where it is still possible to walk twenty yards without passing a single coffee outlet.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,103

    Ed Miliband's latest stamp duty exception for first time buyers up to £300,000 may be good politics but the idea it will be paid for by pursuing tax on landlords and foreign buyers is just an extension to the ever present 'magic money tree' which seems to be growing into a forest of unrealistic expectations

    Its not just EdM who is using the magic money tree.

    Take a look at the promises made in the last month:

    Capped rail fares
    Capped rents
    Capped energy prices
    £8bn extra NHS spending
    Increased Overseas Aid
    Paid 'volunteering days'
    Free child care
    Income tax cuts
    IHT cuts
    Stamp duty cuts

    and doubtless plenty more I've missed.

    But if you asked the non-political person to match policies with party they wouldn't get them right.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    DavidL said:

    If the limit on this exemption is £300K then for first time buyers the maximum relief is £5000 which in fairness will help when trying to find the deposit.

    But surely, outside London at least, most first time buyers are buying at less than £125K and therefore don't pay SDLT anyway? Even if they are only just over that the amount they pay will be trivial.

    It's been said that the average first time buyer's price is £172,000
    What sort of joint income would a first-time-buying couple need to buy a £300,000 house?
    Labour seems to be favouring the better off, again.
    Doubt they can do that straight off. This is why if you sell off the existing stock you give them a chance while keeping those people housed. New homes built with the profits of the sales reduces the number of people without homes and actually increase the housing stock in the long term. Only the left cannot see this because it deals with aspiration to achieve better and not the lowest common denominator for all concerned.
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    DavidL said:

    If the limit on this exemption is £300K then for first time buyers the maximum relief is £5000 which in fairness will help when trying to find the deposit.

    But surely, outside London at least, most first time buyers are buying at less than £125K and therefore don't pay SDLT anyway? Even if they are only just over that the amount they pay will be trivial.

    It's been said that the average first time buyer's price is £172,000
    What sort of joint income would a first-time-buying couple need to buy a £300,000 house?
    Labour seems to be favouring the better off, again.
    Labour will do and say anything that courts popularity - can anyone identify anything Ed Miliband has said that would be unpopular but in the Country's best interest
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Murali If some policies were held back from the Manifesto..it means they were not in the Manifesto... they are latecomers..additions..panic moves....
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015
    Sturgeon on Today now - 'wielding influence in the HoC'. Calling for minority parties to gang up on the Tories if they're largest party.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Richard, 'capped energy prices'?

    The promise was a freeze, which many of us pointed out was demented, and now they've rebranded it as a cap.

    That aside, I agree with your general undertone of disgust at the sweeties being waved at the electorate.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,657
    Here is an anecdote that I imagine most of you will think I have made up - I was talking to an undecided voter from Broxtowe last night, and just about managed to persuade her to vote for NP. If you win by one vote Nick, lit was all down to me!
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    DavidL said:

    If the limit on this exemption is £300K then for first time buyers the maximum relief is £5000 which in fairness will help when trying to find the deposit.

    But surely, outside London at least, most first time buyers are buying at less than £125K and therefore don't pay SDLT anyway? Even if they are only just over that the amount they pay will be trivial.

    It's been said that the average first time buyer's price is £172,000
    What sort of joint income would a first-time-buying couple need to buy a £300,000 house?
    Labour seems to be favouring the better off, again.
    Labour will do and say anything that courts popularity - can anyone identify anything Ed Miliband has said that would be unpopular but in the Country's best interest
    No EU referendum.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: SNP leader @NicolaSturgeon says Ed Miliband will have to "talk to and compromise" with @theSNP @bbcr4today

    @CCHQPress: Sturgeon: 'Ed Miliband can say what he wants, he can't deny reality' - SNP would dictate terms to weak Ed Miliband #GE2015
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    paulyorkpaulyork Posts: 50
    What sort of message are libdem canvassers going with where they are threatened by the tories? Mine would be "yes i know u didnt like us going into coalition with the tories but we did moderate their policies and if u jump ship now you're getting a tory mp. Is that what u really want?".
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    No EU referendum.

    Let's revisit that assertion after Grexit...
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Here is an anecdote that I imagine most of you will think I have made up - I was talking to an undecided voter from Broxtowe last night, and just about managed to persuade her to vote for NP. If you win by one vote Nick, lit was all down to me!

    Why bother? He assumes he's won already. No need for an election.
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    Here is an anecdote that I imagine most of you will think I have made up - I was talking to an undecided voter from Broxtowe last night, and just about managed to persuade her to vote for NP. If you win by one vote Nick, lit was all down to me!

    Lol !

    I was there for a couple of days myself recently. It's looking good for Labour, which undoubtedly has the TV vote sewn up.

    By coincidence, Eddie Izzard was also there at the same time.

    http://www.eastwoodadvertiser.co.uk/news/local/eddie-izzard-joins-labour-in-broxtowe-ashfield-1-7228511
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    murali_s said:

    London has been an infinitely more pleasant place to live since Boris took over as Mayor.

    Hmmm. Evidence?
    Crime is down more than 20% since 2008, more public transport, 24 hours a day, even Boris Bikes on Christmas day, school now best in country when were worst. More tourists. rainfall has fallen. Southbank opened up, Westfield, Olympic Park, St Pancras, Crossrail improving Tottenham Court Road, more than 10,000 extra trees per annum. 300,000 more jobs, More Apple Stores, upmarket burger joints, improving theatre, new cinemas. London's footie teams will win League.League Cup/FA Cup/promotion to Premiership. I could go on.
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    Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Scott_P said:

    No EU referendum.

    Let's revisit that assertion after Grexit...
    Greece is not planning to leave the EU.
    The Euro might be different but we should all believe that when it happens
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Labour activists are very calm wherever I go. Either then know they have won or know they have lost. Most PVs have not sent them in yet. Some never will.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    Millsy said:

    But anyway, how come this Labour "pledge" on stamp duty isn't in their manifesto?

    Last minute panic. Expect them every day now...

    As for the BBC

    @GuidoFawkes: BBC website analysis: Labour’s lines feature prominently and are completely unquestioned. http://t.co/ZVKqhK6oyP http://t.co/iXfdZH5jxh
    BBC news site has Labour's first time buyers next to Conservatives' small business support.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    murali s.. My own experiences ..having lived and worked there for forty years..it has improved immeasurably.

    That's my experience too, Richard.

    There is still room for improvement though. Indeed there are parts of the City where it is still possible to walk twenty yards without passing a single coffee outlet.
    Disgusting ....

    And it gets worse .... At the Harpenden Farmers Market yesterday there wasn't a farmer to be had.

    I'm reliably told by TEASE (Tory Election Arboreal Strategists England) that they were all out ensuring the trees on the farm roadside verges are voting Conservative with a profusion of blue posters greater than the cash on Ed Miliband's magic money trees.
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    Dixie said:

    murali_s said:

    London has been an infinitely more pleasant place to live since Boris took over as Mayor.

    Hmmm. Evidence?
    Crime is down more than 20% since 2008, more public transport, 24 hours a day, even Boris Bikes on Christmas day, school now best in country when were worst. More tourists. rainfall has fallen. Southbank opened up, Westfield, Olympic Park, St Pancras, Crossrail improving Tottenham Court Road, more than 10,000 extra trees per annum. 300,000 more jobs, More Apple Stores, upmarket burger joints, improving theatre, new cinemas. London's footie teams will win League.League Cup/FA Cup/promotion to Premiership. I could go on.
    You mean you won't give Cammo credit for any of that? Just think of how much more BoJo could've achieved if only the Labour Party in London had wound itself up :)

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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited April 2015
    Doddy

    "London has been an infinitely more pleasant place to live since Boris took over as Mayor."

    Absolute crap. The last significant change that improved living in Central London was the congestion charge. Other than that it's got more crowded and less easy to live in. It was at it's worst in the 80's and early 90's and improved a lot over the next 10 years when the cardboard boxes moved out.

    I thought you lived in Italy?
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Dixie said:

    murali_s said:

    London has been an infinitely more pleasant place to live since Boris took over as Mayor.

    Hmmm. Evidence?
    Crime is down more than 20% since 2008, more public transport, 24 hours a day, even Boris Bikes on Christmas day, school now best in country when were worst. More tourists. rainfall has fallen. Southbank opened up, Westfield, Olympic Park, St Pancras, Crossrail improving Tottenham Court Road, more than 10,000 extra trees per annum. 300,000 more jobs, More Apple Stores, upmarket burger joints, improving theatre, new cinemas. London's footie teams will win League.League Cup/FA Cup/promotion to Premiership. I could go on.
    There have been improvements but at what cost.

    Most people working in London spend their weekends sleeping after working 60+ hours in the week. You live to work here in the Capital.
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    Dixie said:

    Labour activists are very calm wherever I go. Either then know they have won or know they have lost. Most PVs have not sent them in yet. Some never will.

    That's an interesting view, Dixie.

    When canvassing last week one of my tasks was to check voters had received their postal ballot and encourage them to send it off. More than half had completed and returned the form within 24 hours of receiving it.

    What is the experience of other PB canvassers?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    24 hours 24 minutes 24 seconds
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    Ed Miliband's latest stamp duty exception for first time buyers up to £300,000 may be good politics but the idea it will be paid for by pursuing tax on landlords and foreign buyers is just an extension to the ever present 'magic money tree' which seems to be growing into a forest of unrealistic expectations

    Yet another idea by people who live in and only associate with those who live in London.

    Outside the M25 300k buys a family home, and (very generally speaking) north of Watford Gap it buys 3 or 4 bedrooms and a nice garden.

    But yet another disingenuous and uncosted promise from the Magic Money Tree. There is room for a valid argument of the left, let us tax more and spend more. What makes Miliband so dangerous is that he thinks he doesn't need to raise taxes generally, or that he can raise them all from an increasingly internationally mobile 'Super Rich' who will just pay up without complaint.
    Surely the Conservatives have a magic money tree too, to the tune of at least £25 billion in unfunded promises, not to mention doubling borrowing over the last parliament. Funny how pb Tories only care about MMTs with regard to Labour. Or is there some other explanation I've overlooked, like they think pb is swarming with floating voters?
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    Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207

    murali s.. My own experiences ..having lived and worked there for forty years..it has improved immeasurably.

    That's my experience too, Richard.

    There is still room for improvement though. Indeed there are parts of the City where it is still possible to walk twenty yards without passing a single coffee outlet.
    The resurgence of coffee houses (everywhere, not just the City) shows the problem with complaining that 'we don't make anything any more' or that 'we have low productivity' or that 'its not a proper job'.
    As people have more disposable income and time to spend it then leisure outlets grow. These outlets require workers and also the shop fitters etc to equip them. Thus as manufacturing grows it becomes a smaller part of the GDP. It shows we are a mature well ordered economy where workers are well enough paid and with enough free time to use these places.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,103
    What £300k gets you in EdM's constituency:

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-23842686.html

    or if you want a cheaper 4 bed detached in EdM's constituency this one's £60k:

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49015567.html
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    It makes sound sense to have EVEL and the SNP exists to break up the Union..it also makes sense to discuss that at every opportunity..

    It does not make any sense to have EVEL, it is the UK parliament , not the English parliament. If England is not happy with current situation , get devolution and have an English parliament. The answer is not to make the Westminster toilet even less democractic than the undemocratic place it already is.

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    steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    It is quite curious that Ed's first time buyer stamp duty policy was not in the manifesto. Despite the bravado, even triumphalism we've seen from Labour and their supporters over the last fortnight I wonder if behind the scenes Labour think their chance of winning is diminishing. This does smell a bit of panic and for the first time in this campaign I wonder if Ed's overreached.

    It's a poorly thought out policy too.
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    The unanswered question hanging over the next Conservative leadership contest is WWGD?

    If George Osborne decides to stand, he will probably be in the final two, where he will probably lose. He represents too much of a continuation of the current leadership team. Who would he face? Dunno.

    I suspect that he knows he's not the man for the job, in which case his endorsement will probably be decisive. There have been a fair few press hints that he's going to back Boris Johnson. If he does, Boris is almost unstoppable.

    I suspect that he's still keeping his powder dry and may not have decided himself. That makes all bets on this market unusually risky. Be warned.

    George is going to endorse Sajid Javid.

    Interesting fact. The last favourite to win the Tory leadership election was Harold MacMillan
    For my own betting and tipping purposes, I hope you're right. But George Osborne is by some way the most unreadable major politician around at the moment. It's extraordinary how elusive such a prominent man can be.
    He's a better strategist than Lynton can ever dream to be.
    Very amusing, how many elections has he won and how many has Lynton?
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    Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207

    The limit of 300,000 k on Stamp Duty will have the effect of price rises in the lower priced housing groups.

    Indeed. Sellers will add it to the price, knowing that the buyers would have likely budgeted for it anyway.
    Yes. No stamp duty on first £125k anyway and Osborne reformed the way the banding worked last year. £300k helps well of workers in high value areas. If a house is over £300k will duty only be levied on the balance or does it work as if normal?
  • Options
    Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: SNP leader @NicolaSturgeon says Ed Miliband will have to "talk to and compromise" with @theSNP @bbcr4today

    @CCHQPress: Sturgeon: 'Ed Miliband can say what he wants, he can't deny reality' - SNP would dictate terms to weak Ed Miliband #GE2015

    Nicola denies reality on a regular basis, unfortunately she has persuaded a lot of Scots that her fantasies are more believable than Salmond's
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040

    Murali If some policies were held back from the Manifesto..it means they were not in the Manifesto... they are latecomers..additions..panic moves....

    Richard, my old friend. You hold a few policies back for the campaign - that's basic politics not panic moves!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. G, indeed, the obvious and only real answer is an English Parliament.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,103

    Here is an anecdote that I imagine most of you will think I have made up - I was talking to an undecided voter from Broxtowe last night, and just about managed to persuade her to vote for NP. If you win by one vote Nick, lit was all down to me!

    Lol !

    I was there for a couple of days myself recently. It's looking good for Labour, which undoubtedly has the TV vote sewn up.

    By coincidence, Eddie Izzard was also there at the same time.

    http://www.eastwoodadvertiser.co.uk/news/local/eddie-izzard-joins-labour-in-broxtowe-ashfield-1-7228511
    IIRC you helped NickP in 2010 as well.

    If so have you any thoughts as to how 2015 compares with 2010 in Broxtowe ?
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    I would go with Bojo, he has charisma and appeals to parts of the electorate that others can't. That said think he would be best as a short term leader, burns bright but quickly.

    I do have concerns, immigration, not sure if he is a neocon on foreign policy, he has been around awhile now and he his flaws a mentioned already. Short term solution not a long term answer.

    None of the other front runners appeal, let's see if someone emerges.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Roger said:

    Doddy

    "London has been an infinitely more pleasant place to live since Boris took over as Mayor."

    Absolute crap. The last significant change that improved living in Central London was the congestion charge. Other than that it's got more crowded and less easy to live in. It was at it's worst in the 80's and early 90's and improved a lot over the next 10 years when the cardboard boxes moved out.

    I thought you lived in Italy?

    'Londons more crowded' - Why might that be, Roger?

    We can all guess, and it's down to successive governments, not the Mayor.
  • Options

    Here is an anecdote that I imagine most of you will think I have made up - I was talking to an undecided voter from Broxtowe last night, and just about managed to persuade her to vote for NP. If you win by one vote Nick, lit was all down to me!

    Lol !

    I was there for a couple of days myself recently. It's looking good for Labour, which undoubtedly has the TV vote sewn up.

    By coincidence, Eddie Izzard was also there at the same time.

    http://www.eastwoodadvertiser.co.uk/news/local/eddie-izzard-joins-labour-in-broxtowe-ashfield-1-7228511
    Is that you in the centre Peter? (I'm only asking before JackW gets in first.)
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,990
    FalseFlag said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    The unanswered question hanging over the next Conservative leadership contest is WWGD?

    If George Osborne decides to stand, he will probably be in the final two, where he will probably lose. He represents too much of a continuation of the current leadership team. Who would he face? Dunno.

    I suspect that he knows he's not the man for the job, in which case his endorsement will probably be decisive. There have been a fair few press hints that he's going to back Boris Johnson. If he does, Boris is almost unstoppable.

    I suspect that he's still keeping his powder dry and may not have decided himself. That makes all bets on this market unusually risky. Be warned.

    George is going to endorse Sajid Javid.

    Interesting fact. The last favourite to win the Tory leadership election was Harold MacMillan
    For my own betting and tipping purposes, I hope you're right. But George Osborne is by some way the most unreadable major politician around at the moment. It's extraordinary how elusive such a prominent man can be.
    He's a better strategist than Lynton can ever dream to be.
    Very amusing, how many elections has he won and how many has Lynton?
    His record in the UK will soon be played 2, won 0.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Edin_Rokz said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: SNP leader @NicolaSturgeon says Ed Miliband will have to "talk to and compromise" with @theSNP @bbcr4today

    @CCHQPress: Sturgeon: 'Ed Miliband can say what he wants, he can't deny reality' - SNP would dictate terms to weak Ed Miliband #GE2015

    Nicola denies reality on a regular basis, unfortunately she has persuaded a lot of Scots that her fantasies are more believable than Salmond's
    Yes, only a small band of diehard labour drones and some stupid Tories are immune from reality, most people can see it has to be better than the alternatives we normally get.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    edited April 2015

    Sandpit said:

    Ed Miliband's latest stamp duty exception for first time buyers up to £300,000 may be good politics but the idea it will be paid for by pursuing tax on landlords and foreign buyers is just an extension to the ever present 'magic money tree' which seems to be growing into a forest of unrealistic expectations

    Yet another idea by people who live in and only associate with those who live in London.

    Outside the M25 300k buys a family home, and (very generally speaking) north of Watford Gap it buys 3 or 4 bedrooms and a nice garden.

    But yet another disingenuous and uncosted promise from the Magic Money Tree. There is room for a valid argument of the left, let us tax more and spend more. What makes Miliband so dangerous is that he thinks he doesn't need to raise taxes generally, or that he can raise them all from an increasingly internationally mobile 'Super Rich' who will just pay up without complaint.
    Surely the Conservatives have a magic money tree too, to the tune of at least £25 billion in unfunded promises, not to mention doubling borrowing over the last parliament. Funny how pb Tories only care about MMTs with regard to Labour. Or is there some other explanation I've overlooked, like they think pb is swarming with floating voters?
    I don't disagree with you that all parties are guilty to some extent of talking up spending in advance of the election, while not mentioning taxes except where they may cut them.

    The Tories (and LDs if they have any sense) will point to their record of at least moving in the right direction with regard to responsibility in spending, although many will attack them from the right saying they didn't cut spending enough.

    Labour have no record to run on, expect for the mess they left behind in 2010. They can't decide whether they wish to abolish the nasty bankers in the City, or to tax them more - they can't do both! The bankers' bonus tax has been spent 10 times over now, and it's the refusal to accept that taxes in general will need to go up to pay for spending that annoys me. The LDs famously ran in 2005 on the basis of a penny on income tax to fund education, that's an excellent example of honest tax and spend policy. What Ed and Labour are proposing sounds increasingly like the politics of the 1970s with rent and price controls, arbitrary confiscation of wealth and penalisation of success.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    More magic money tree stuff from labour

    But it is what the people want it seems. how depressing. In a sane world the electorate would be rewarding the government for turning the economy round, and would be running a million miles from putting the last lot back in again. Beats me who these people who want Ed Balls in no. 11 are. Oh well.

    Most likely result looks like a right mess - hung parliament with no easy coalitions. sheesh
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015

    FalseFlag said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    The unanswered question hanging over the next Conservative leadership contest is WWGD?

    If George Osborne decides to stand, he will probably be in the final two, where he will probably lose. He represents too much of a continuation of the current leadership team. Who would he face? Dunno.

    I suspect that he knows he's not the man for the job, in which case his endorsement will probably be decisive. There have been a fair few press hints that he's going to back Boris Johnson. If he does, Boris is almost unstoppable.

    I suspect that he's still keeping his powder dry and may not have decided himself. That makes all bets on this market unusually risky. Be warned.

    George is going to endorse Sajid Javid.

    Interesting fact. The last favourite to win the Tory leadership election was Harold MacMillan
    For my own betting and tipping purposes, I hope you're right. But George Osborne is by some way the most unreadable major politician around at the moment. It's extraordinary how elusive such a prominent man can be.
    He's a better strategist than Lynton can ever dream to be.
    Very amusing, how many elections has he won and how many has Lynton?
    His record in the UK will soon be played 2, won 0.
    The polls point to no overall majority for any party, so Millibands going to fail to win an election too.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Here is an anecdote that I imagine most of you will think I have made up - I was talking to an undecided voter from Broxtowe last night, and just about managed to persuade her to vote for NP. If you win by one vote Nick, lit was all down to me!

    Lol !

    I was there for a couple of days myself recently. It's looking good for Labour, which undoubtedly has the TV vote sewn up.

    By coincidence, Eddie Izzard was also there at the same time.

    http://www.eastwoodadvertiser.co.uk/news/local/eddie-izzard-joins-labour-in-broxtowe-ashfield-1-7228511
    Is that you in the centre Peter? (I'm only asking before JackW gets in first.)
    Chortle .... :smile:

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Mr. G, indeed, the obvious and only real answer is an English Parliament.

    Exactly and fools shouting for EVEL just want the end of the UK. If ever enacted it will mean a quick end to the UK.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    FalseFlag said:

    I would go with Bojo, he has charisma and appeals to parts of the electorate that others can't. That said think he would be best as a short term leader, burns bright but quickly.

    I do have concerns, immigration, not sure if he is a neocon on foreign policy, he has been around awhile now and he his flaws a mentioned already. Short term solution not a long term answer.

    None of the other front runners appeal, let's see if someone emerges.

    If that buffoon is all the Tories have to save them then they are doomed and deservedly so.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. G, maybe. Could be a short term stepping stone to an English Parliament.

    The worst thing would be carving England into pathetic little regional assemblies.
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    AndyJS said:

    Big change with ElectionForecast: now Con 286, Lab 267, SNP 48, LD 24.

    http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

    Also, it ain't going to be much fun for Ed running a government on those figures.

    If he doesn't get the LDs to support a Lab-SNP pact (of whatever sort) then he's relying on the PC/SDLP/Green odds and sods, and would still be short of an overall majority even then.

    If the LDs go into opposition with the Tories then they have an "ambush" minority of 310 seats. It'd only take 6 Labour or SNP MPs to break ranks or abstain to block legislation.
    Casino - I think you're forgetting that there's a majority of the LibDem Parliamentary party who are longing, just longing I tell you to get into bed with Labour and who will grab such an opportunity once they are free of the shackles of Clegg as their leader or probably even sooner if possible.
    You know very little about the Lib Dems and LibDem Parliamentary party do you ?
    Wyh don't you try listening to some of your own big wigs for a change, e.g. Paddy Ashdown, Tim Farron, etc. - they've all but admitted as much.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,278

    Here is an anecdote that I imagine most of you will think I have made up - I was talking to an undecided voter from Broxtowe last night, and just about managed to persuade her to vote for NP. If you win by one vote Nick, lit was all down to me!

    Lol !

    I was there for a couple of days myself recently. It's looking good for Labour, which undoubtedly has the TV vote sewn up.

    By coincidence, Eddie Izzard was also there at the same time.

    http://www.eastwoodadvertiser.co.uk/news/local/eddie-izzard-joins-labour-in-broxtowe-ashfield-1-7228511
    IIRC you helped NickP in 2010 as well.

    If so have you any thoughts as to how 2015 compares with 2010 in Broxtowe ?
    I imagine the LibDems will struggle to hold their deposit.
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    paulyorkpaulyork Posts: 50
    I think it will b hard for tories to get a majority in foreseeable future when their time in power is spent having to make unpopular policies to repair the financial damage of previous administrations who "borrow only for investment". Especially with awful policies like right to buy " the sequel" as the lead offer in the manifesto.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    For me, the Marr clip reflected badly on Marr and Miliband. Boris hardly got a chance to get an answer out with Ed constantly hectoring him and Marr unfairly sitting back, grin on his face, as Miliband shouted all over him and refused to let him get an answer in. It also showed how Ed is typically obsessed with class, as when Boris points out that they went to the same primary school he then launches in with "not the same secondary school, eh, not the same secondary school Boris?" as if attacking Boris for the school his parents sent him to is a legitimate attack on the man.

    I would think a neutral voter might feel a bit sorry for Boris, who was well and truly stitched up.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    Watcher

    "We can all guess, and it's down to successive governments, not the Mayor."

    I think you work in the centre too? Can you really say it's better or easier to live in than it was ten years ago? It might well be on the outskirts but London is a load of villages and if you spend your time in one area like Soho it's not even easy to know what's going on in Covent Garden.

    Your comment presumably refers to immigrants? Soho was more obviously full of immigrants when I arrived in 1985 than it is now. The Greeks and Turks who used to run the sex industry have all moved on. At one time you couldn't move for prostitutes now it VO artists.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Mr. G, maybe. Could be a short term stepping stone to an English Parliament.

    The worst thing would be carving England into pathetic little regional assemblies.

    MD , last desperate step for the establishment to try and hold onto power more like. they would prefer sock puppet regional assemblies to giving away their powers. They will wreck the UK before they will give up their baubles.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. York, if Labour form the next government in a not-quite coalition with the SNP, the Conservatives could be in opposition with a very healthy total (280+) of seats. That's not a bad starting place.
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    Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    malcolmg said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: SNP leader @NicolaSturgeon says Ed Miliband will have to "talk to and compromise" with @theSNP @bbcr4today

    @CCHQPress: Sturgeon: 'Ed Miliband can say what he wants, he can't deny reality' - SNP would dictate terms to weak Ed Miliband #GE2015

    Nicola denies reality on a regular basis, unfortunately she has persuaded a lot of Scots that her fantasies are more believable than Salmond's
    Yes, only a small band of diehard labour drones and some stupid Tories are immune from reality, most people can see it has to be better than the alternatives we normally get.
    Ah! If only fishing was this easy, I might have taken it up as a pastime.....
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    For me, the Marr clip reflected badly on Marr and Miliband. Boris hardly got a chance to get an answer out with Ed constantly hectoring him and Marr unfairly sitting back, grin on his face, as Miliband shouted all over him and refused to let him get an answer in. It also showed how Ed is typically obsessed with class, as when Boris points out that they went to the same primary school he then launches in with "not the same secondary school, eh, not the same secondary school Boris?" as if attacking Boris for the school his parents sent him to is a legitimate attack on the man.

    I would think a neutral voter might feel a bit sorry for Boris, who was well and truly stitched up.

    Two cheeks of the same arse , just different delivery. One as a clown the other as an imbecile.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176

    More magic money tree stuff from labour

    But it is what the people want it seems. how depressing. In a sane world the electorate would be rewarding the government for turning the economy round, and would be running a million miles from putting the last lot back in again. Beats me who these people who want Ed Balls in no. 11 are. Oh well.

    Most likely result looks like a right mess - hung parliament with no easy coalitions. sheesh

    There's no popular acclaim for a return to Labour. Hence they'll get about 34% in the election and lose swathes of seats in Scotland.

    People just can't seem to recognise what is patently obvious - Labour will get in, with a feeble share, simply because UKIP has split the Tory / Tory-inclined vote. The polls show general acquiescence to Dave staying as PM, but FPTP and the electoral maths won't permit it. Without UKIP, the Tories would be on course for 40% and a majority.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,960
    Hmmm Boris was really bad in that clip, almost incomprehensible.

    I was really certain he'd be next Tory leader but must say that has given me pause for thought
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Roger..you must surely walk around London with your eyes shut.It is a vastly more pleasant place than it was 15..20 years ago.
    I guess the strain of having to make eight or ten transitional moments in a 30 second commercial has addled your brain.Commercials make a bank balance grow and diminishes sensitivities,,and don't you reside in the South of France.
    Don't tell anyone Rog..but I spend a lot of time in London.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,875
    Re the discussion of the DUP and the Union/coalitions, just noticed this, which I wonder may be relevant as well (in all seriousness):

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-northern-ireland-32475421

    "Police have confirmed they are investigating after an incident during an election canvas in County Down was reported to them.

    It is understood it involved the DUP candidate Jim Wells and a lesbian couple.

    It is believed the PSNI are trying to establish if an offence has been committed.

    [...]

    The PSNI said they had received three complaints regarding the conduct of an individual in Rathfriland on Saturday evening.

    It is alleged that Jim Wells, who was doing door-to-door canvassing, called at a lesbian couple's house, and during a conversation was critical of their lifestyle.

    [... the daughter said] Mr Wells had gone back to the house twice saying he wanted to apologise. But the couple would not accept the apology, because, they claimed, Mr Wells said he did not agree with their lifestyle choice.
    "
  • Options
    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    For me, the Marr clip reflected badly on Marr and Miliband. Boris hardly got a chance to get an answer out with Ed constantly hectoring him and Marr unfairly sitting back, grin on his face, as Miliband shouted all over him and refused to let him get an answer in. It also showed how Ed is typically obsessed with class, as when Boris points out that they went to the same primary school he then launches in with "not the same secondary school, eh, not the same secondary school Boris?" as if attacking Boris for the school his parents sent him to is a legitimate attack on the man.

    I would think a neutral voter might feel a bit sorry for Boris, who was well and truly stitched up.

    You missed the Boris interview where Bozza invariably dissembles, blusters and rudely talks over Marr without answering a single question straight.

    So no sympathy for the buffoon. He got a long overdue mauling.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Edin_Rokz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: SNP leader @NicolaSturgeon says Ed Miliband will have to "talk to and compromise" with @theSNP @bbcr4today

    @CCHQPress: Sturgeon: 'Ed Miliband can say what he wants, he can't deny reality' - SNP would dictate terms to weak Ed Miliband #GE2015

    Nicola denies reality on a regular basis, unfortunately she has persuaded a lot of Scots that her fantasies are more believable than Salmond's
    Yes, only a small band of diehard labour drones and some stupid Tories are immune from reality, most people can see it has to be better than the alternatives we normally get.
    Ah! If only fishing was this easy, I might have taken it up as a pastime.....
    You have not enough brains to handle a worm never mind bait a hook, self flattery is the best you will get. Go and look at your Gordon poster and keep yourself amused for a few days.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Murali,

    "Richard, my old friend. You hold a few policies back for the campaign - that's basic politics not panic moves!"

    But your manifesto was fully costed, was it not? So you're allowed to add extra spending during the campaign without it costing anything? Truly the magic money tree.

    And that applies to the Tories too.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. G, sadly, I must agree with you on that constitutional matter.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Another story about Andrew Turner. Is he in any danger?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,960
    Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics)
    27/04/2015 06:16
    Why you should stop worrying and learn to love inequality tgr.ph/1PK1UxD
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    Interesting, with a nice chart of moving voters. Coalition 2, The Return?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11564510/Nick-Clegg-has-made-things-clear-this-election-is-either-more-of-the-same-or-chaos.html
    This is because Clegg has just made a significant announcement. He would not, he confirmed, enter coalition with any party dependent on SNP support. This effectively ruled out a Lib Dem/Labour coalition, because the SNP surge in Scotland makes it virtually impossible for Miliband to secure enough seats to form an administration without them.
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    Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    BenM said:

    For me, the Marr clip reflected badly on Marr and Miliband. Boris hardly got a chance to get an answer out with Ed constantly hectoring him and Marr unfairly sitting back, grin on his face, as Miliband shouted all over him and refused to let him get an answer in. It also showed how Ed is typically obsessed with class, as when Boris points out that they went to the same primary school he then launches in with "not the same secondary school, eh, not the same secondary school Boris?" as if attacking Boris for the school his parents sent him to is a legitimate attack on the man.

    I would think a neutral voter might feel a bit sorry for Boris, who was well and truly stitched up.

    You missed the Boris interview where Bozza invariably dissembles, blusters and rudely talks over Marr without answering a single question straight.

    So no sympathy for the buffoon. He got a long overdue mauling.
    Funnily enough I have no sympathy with the class obsessed socialist bigot who peddles politics of envy. I don't have much sympathy for the biased BBC reporter either.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    AndyJS said:

    Big change with ElectionForecast: now Con 286, Lab 267, SNP 48, LD 24.

    http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

    Also, it ain't going to be much fun for Ed running a government on those figures.

    If he doesn't get the LDs to support a Lab-SNP pact (of whatever sort) then he's relying on the PC/SDLP/Green odds and sods, and would still be short of an overall majority even then.

    If the LDs go into opposition with the Tories then they have an "ambush" minority of 310 seats. It'd only take 6 Labour or SNP MPs to break ranks or abstain to block legislation.
    Casino - I think you're forgetting that there's a majority of the LibDem Parliamentary party who are longing, just longing I tell you to get into bed with Labour and who will grab such an opportunity once they are free of the shackles of Clegg as their leader or probably even sooner if possible.
    You know very little about the Lib Dems and LibDem Parliamentary party do you ?
    Wyh don't you try listening to some of your own big wigs for a change, e.g. Paddy Ashdown, Tim Farron, etc. - they've all but admitted as much.
    You are just making yourself look incredibly foolish , a stand out idiot amongst fools .
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Carnyx said:

    Re the discussion of the DUP and the Union/coalitions, just noticed this, which I wonder may be relevant as well (in all seriousness):

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-northern-ireland-32475421

    "Police have confirmed they are investigating after an incident during an election canvas in County Down was reported to them.

    It is understood it involved the DUP candidate Jim Wells and a lesbian couple.

    It is believed the PSNI are trying to establish if an offence has been committed.

    [...]

    The PSNI said they had received three complaints regarding the conduct of an individual in Rathfriland on Saturday evening.

    It is alleged that Jim Wells, who was doing door-to-door canvassing, called at a lesbian couple's house, and during a conversation was critical of their lifestyle.

    [... the daughter said] Mr Wells had gone back to the house twice saying he wanted to apologise. But the couple would not accept the apology, because, they claimed, Mr Wells said he did not agree with their lifestyle choice.
    "

    Despite what others said below, it could become relevant.

    The DUP are pushing a "conscience clause" to allow deeply held religious beliefs to follow them without fear of breaking the law - eg allow soi-disant Christian bakers to refuse to bake gay cakes. In this they have the overt support of the Roman Catholic church (!) and the implicit support of the Church of Ireland, never mind the non-conformists that make up the DUP bedrock support. This is being blocked in Northern Ireland by other parties.

    They may seek Westminster assistance in pursuing this agenda.
  • Options
    Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    malcolmg said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: SNP leader @NicolaSturgeon says Ed Miliband will have to "talk to and compromise" with @theSNP @bbcr4today

    @CCHQPress: Sturgeon: 'Ed Miliband can say what he wants, he can't deny reality' - SNP would dictate terms to weak Ed Miliband #GE2015

    Nicola denies reality on a regular basis, unfortunately she has persuaded a lot of Scots that her fantasies are more believable than Salmond's
    Yes, only a small band of diehard labour drones and some stupid Tories are immune from reality, most people can see it has to be better than the alternatives we normally get.
    Ah! If only fishing was this easy, I might have taken it up as a pastime.....
    You have not enough brains to handle a worm never mind bait a hook, self flattery is the best you will get. Go and look at your Gordon poster and keep yourself amused for a few days.
    With you Malkie, putting an empty jam jar into a stream and you'll swim into it every time
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2015

    For me, the Marr clip reflected badly on Marr and Miliband. Boris hardly got a chance to get an answer out with Ed constantly hectoring him and Marr unfairly sitting back, grin on his face, as Miliband shouted all over him and refused to let him get an answer in. It also showed how Ed is typically obsessed with class, as when Boris points out that they went to the same primary school he then launches in with "not the same secondary school, eh, not the same secondary school Boris?" as if attacking Boris for the school his parents sent him to is a legitimate attack on the man.

    I would think a neutral voter might feel a bit sorry for Boris, who was well and truly stitched up.

    You refer that "Ed is typically obsessed with class" by saying "he then launches in with "not the same secondary school, eh, not the same secondary school Boris"" but failing to mention that it was Boris who brought up the school subject just to prove he was as ordinary as Ed.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    Carnyx said:


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-northern-ireland-32475421

    It is alleged that Jim Wells, who was doing door-to-door canvassing, called at a lesbian couple's house, and during a conversation was critical of their lifestyle.

    How on Earth can being "critical of their lifestyle" be a criminal offence?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Senior, Mr. Putney is clearly neither a fool nor an idiot, but one of the site's most interesting chaps when it comes to betting.
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    Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    malcolmg said:

    Mr. G, maybe. Could be a short term stepping stone to an English Parliament.

    The worst thing would be carving England into pathetic little regional assemblies.

    MD , last desperate step for the establishment to try and hold onto power more like. they would prefer sock puppet regional assemblies to giving away their powers. They will wreck the UK before they will give up their baubles.
    Only the turnip heads of the SNP want to wreak the UK. And for sure we should resist the balkanisation of England even of it means having an English parliament.
    Funny how the SNP want to have political power over England without any of the responsibility.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,056
    If Boris stands for Conservative leader, I'd be tempted to join the party just so I could vote against him. (*) I quite like Boris, but his becoming an MP whilst still mayor has annoyed me, and I doubt he would be able to unite the party, especially on Europe.

    I'd much prefer Rory Stewart. He's actually done something with his life; enough to counteract the disadvantage of being an Old Etonian. And having been deputy governor of an Iraqi province might have given him useful skills in managing the Conservative Party. ;-)

    I really rate the guy.

    (*) Although the timing probably would not allow it.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sandpit said:

    Interesting, with a nice chart of moving voters. Coalition 2, The Return?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11564510/Nick-Clegg-has-made-things-clear-this-election-is-either-more-of-the-same-or-chaos.html

    This is because Clegg has just made a significant announcement. He would not, he confirmed, enter coalition with any party dependent on SNP support. This effectively ruled out a Lib Dem/Labour coalition, because the SNP surge in Scotland makes it virtually impossible for Miliband to secure enough seats to form an administration without them.

    Maybe, Clegg won't be there to take that decision.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Carnyx,

    "But the couple would not accept the apology, because, they claimed, Mr Wells said he did not agree with their lifestyle choice."

    Reading the report, I assumed at first he'd wanted to make up a threesome. But having an opinion is far worse, I suppose. Oh the horror!
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    paulyorkpaulyork Posts: 50
    Sandpit said:

    Interesting, with a nice chart of moving voters. Coalition 2, The Return?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11564510/Nick-Clegg-has-made-things-clear-this-election-is-either-more-of-the-same-or-chaos.html

    This is because Clegg has just made a significant announcement. He would not, he confirmed, enter coalition with any party dependent on SNP support. This effectively ruled out a Lib Dem/Labour coalition, because the SNP surge in Scotland makes it virtually impossible for Miliband to secure enough seats to form an administration without them.

    I think he has to say that to try and secure the votes, for either libd or con, to continue the coalition. And if he loses his seat then who knows what their new leadership would do.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Dadge said:

    Another story about Andrew Turner. Is he in any danger?

    The Isle of Wight is on my list of "don't bet" seats. From the outside, it looks very murky.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    paulyork said:

    I think it will b hard for tories to get a majority in foreseeable future when their time in power is spent having to make unpopular policies to repair the financial damage of previous administrations who "borrow only for investment". Especially with awful policies like right to buy " the sequel" as the lead offer in the manifesto.

    Grapes are indeed sour these days !
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    Interesting, with a nice chart of moving voters. Coalition 2, The Return?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11564510/Nick-Clegg-has-made-things-clear-this-election-is-either-more-of-the-same-or-chaos.html

    This is because Clegg has just made a significant announcement. He would not, he confirmed, enter coalition with any party dependent on SNP support. This effectively ruled out a Lib Dem/Labour coalition, because the SNP surge in Scotland makes it virtually impossible for Miliband to secure enough seats to form an administration without them.
    Maybe, Clegg won't be there to take that decision.
    Ha, that is quite possible!

    Why is the sense increasing that we will be doing all this again in six months' time?
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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    BenM said:

    For me, the Marr clip reflected badly on Marr and Miliband. Boris hardly got a chance to get an answer out with Ed constantly hectoring him and Marr unfairly sitting back, grin on his face, as Miliband shouted all over him and refused to let him get an answer in. It also showed how Ed is typically obsessed with class, as when Boris points out that they went to the same primary school he then launches in with "not the same secondary school, eh, not the same secondary school Boris?" as if attacking Boris for the school his parents sent him to is a legitimate attack on the man.

    I would think a neutral voter might feel a bit sorry for Boris, who was well and truly stitched up.

    You missed the Boris interview where Bozza invariably dissembles, blusters and rudely talks over Marr without answering a single question straight.

    So no sympathy for the buffoon. He got a long overdue mauling.
    Funnily enough I have no sympathy with the class obsessed socialist bigot who peddles politics of envy. I don't have much sympathy for the biased BBC reporter either.
    Yeah, that reminds me, why did Boris bring up Ed's class?

    Rightwing hypocrisy.
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