Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes · 58 secs58 seconds ago London, England Hearing Survation poll in Thanet South giving 9% lead for @Nigel_Farage . Checking.
No because the same stale panel churn out the same result +- MOE. Best forget YG. I;m convinced onliners are a waste of everyones time.
Isn't Yougov a 2 day poll, today's poll is 50% yesterday's pollsters, 50% today's. Tomorrow is 50% today's, 50% tomorrow's. This removes rapid fluctuations but delays potential changes...
No- YouGov always use separate polling groups- the samples are independent (i.e. they do not carry forward)
FB The LDs have made clear they will back the largest party, if they back a Labour government which came second on seats and votes they will lose the few remaining seats they will hold in England and Wales to go along with the loss of almost all their Scottish seats in May
Think they've said they will give them first crack at forming a government, it's not unconditional support.
A bit of encouragement for Nigel there. How will this affect tactical anti-Farage voting? Lab and the Tories are still pretty close, so I doubt they could agree on who should be the beneficiary even if some of them were so inclined.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes · 58 secs58 seconds ago London, England Hearing Survation poll in Thanet South giving 9% lead for @Nigel_Farage . Checking.
Obviously Survation tend to be favourable to UKIP but even so its looking good for Nigel. The new odds of 1/2 seem about right. Think he'll be a great addition to parliament.
So that's changes from the previous Survation poll in Thanet S of:
UKIP 0 CON +3 LAB -2 LD 0 GRN -1
Yes, their constituency methodology is seemingly good for UKIP. Con could have done with Lab being a bit further behind to encourage TV. Seat not over but obv good for Nigel.
FB The LDs have made clear they will back the largest party, if they back a Labour government which came second on seats and votes they will lose the few remaining seats they will hold in England and Wales to go along with the loss of almost all their Scottish seats in May
Where have the Lib Dems said that? As they've been at pains to point out plenty of times they don't necessarily get to choose who to support. The numbers could make the decision for them. If the anti-tory bloc is much bigger than the Tory one they may have no choice.
1) Question: Can Greece print Euros, does Greece print Euros, and does it have a Euro printing press? Answer: Yes it can, yes it does, yes it does. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_banknotes
After being four points in front, we're now two points behind. Cameron needs to accept Miliband's offer of a one on one debate. We need a game changer.
Those Comres swing figures are identical to those I hypothesised this morning. Gave Labour 40 gains in England IIRC.
That's at the top end, but is doable. 50 plus Labour gains in E&W is just fantasy. With the SNP cleaning up in Scotland the only serious issue in this GE is how close the Tories get to a de facto majority.
After the COMRES poll, the 10th of the week from the 7th different pollster
Con -8 Lab -9 UKIP +7 LD NC Green -2
If the conservatives can improve on yesterday's YOUGOV they will have achieved their best Daily SPUD ever by standing still
That adds up to a very negative number. SNP +12???
It's the total ups and downs from each poll against the previous poll from that pollster... So it could be +12% for SNP
Please read earlier thread for explanation I can't go through it all again!!
I understand the theory. However, in each individual poll, the ups, and downs relateive to the previous poll should add up to zero. (Assuming we did an "Other".)
From a mathematical perspective, your SPUD should equal the sum of all these poll changes, and should therefore also equal Zero. Now, if there are 10 polls, then the Otherr +12 is possible (at 1.2 per poll), but it does seem high.
Those Comres swing figures are identical to those I hypothesised this morning. Gave Labour 40 gains in England IIRC.
That's at the top end, but is doable. 50 plus Labour gains in E&W is just fantasy. With the SNP cleaning up in Scotland the only serious issue in this GE is how close the Tories get to a de facto majority.
What do you count as a de facto majority?
TBF, having a Tory minority government, but one which is literally unable to get any of its nastier policies through Parliament, wouldn't be the worst outcome in the world.
Those Comres swing figures are identical to those I hypothesised this morning. Gave Labour 40 gains in England IIRC.
So depending on how badly they do in Scotland between 255-265 seats... EICIG
Probably a dozen Lib Dem gains as well putting them mid 270s and touch and go for largest party. With the SNP on 45 forming a majority government will be next to impossible for anyone.
After the COMRES poll, the 10th of the week from the 7th different pollster
Con -8 Lab -9 UKIP +7 LD NC Green -2
If the conservatives can improve on yesterday's YOUGOV they will have achieved their best Daily SPUD ever by standing still
That adds up to a very negative number. SNP +12???
It's the total ups and downs from each poll against the previous poll from that pollster... So it could be +12% for SNP
Please read earlier thread for explanation I can't go through it all again!!
I understand the theory. However, in each individual poll, the ups, and downs relateive to the previous poll should add up to zero. (Assuming we did an "Other".)
From a mathematical perspective, your SPUD should equal the sum of all these poll changes, and should therefore also equal Zero. Now, if there are 10 polls, then the Otherr +12 is possible (at 1.2 per poll), but it does seem high.
Can't help how it is... It could be that the SNP are averaging 1.2% more than before.
I think the problem is more 'there's no one I want to vote for' than 'I haven't decided who to vote for'.
Essentially.
Which is why I still think we could see a late UKIP surge (possibly starting already?), in the same way that the Lib Dems always used to surge in the final couple of weeks, after people had been reminded of everything they hated about the main parties.
A bit of encouragement for Nigel there. How will this affect tactical anti-Farage voting? Lab and the Tories are still pretty close, so I doubt they could agree on who should be the beneficiary even if some of them were so inclined.
Doubt there will be much anti-UKIP voting in South Thanet. A lot of those Lab and Con voters will have UKIP as their second choice and are more likely to vote *for* UKIP to keep the other 'big' party out.
And on, and on and on it goes with the polls. Just when you think.......
Obviously Survation is the platinum glazed, diamond, quadruple lock standard but Labour at 29% just seems too high. I mean how many stupid people are there out there who could conceive voting for the socialist thugs accompanied by their Jock cheerleaders.
I think National polls will not be enough. Parties have to spend money on 100 marginal. The problem is constituency polls are expensive and unreliable.
FB The LDs have made clear they will back the largest party, if they back a Labour government which came second on seats and votes they will lose the few remaining seats they will hold in England and Wales to go along with the loss of almost all their Scottish seats in May
Where have the Lib Dems said that? As they've been at pains to point out plenty of times they don't necessarily get to choose who to support. The numbers could make the decision for them. If the anti-tory bloc is much bigger than the Tory one they may have no choice.
What will be a disaster for the Liberal Democrats would be a result something like the following:
- Joining a Conservative-DUP-UKIP right wing coalition, with a majority of votes, a theoretical majority in the Commons but an impossible to govern one - Joining a Labour-SNP left wing coalition that has a better Commons majority but a minority of votes - Forcing another election
I think National polls will not be enough. Parties have to spend money on 100 marginal. The problem is constituency polls are expensive and unreliable.
The problem is parties can't conduct marginals polling now.
Those Comres swing figures are identical to those I hypothesised this morning. Gave Labour 40 gains in England IIRC.
That's at the top end, but is doable. 50 plus Labour gains in E&W is just fantasy. With the SNP cleaning up in Scotland the only serious issue in this GE is how close the Tories get to a de facto majority.
What do you count as a de facto majority?
TBF, having a Tory minority government, but one which is literally unable to get any of its nastier policies through Parliament, wouldn't be the worst outcome in the world.
I agree. It's the best we can realistically hope for.
De facto I'd say is the Tories plus NI, with LDs doing confidence and supply. It's not the most likely result, but it's quite possible and would not be a huge surprise. Labour's vote will go up, but in many cases in seats where there is already a Labour MP.
Those Comres swing figures are identical to those I hypothesised this morning. Gave Labour 40 gains in England IIRC.
That's at the top end, but is doable. 50 plus Labour gains in E&W is just fantasy. With the SNP cleaning up in Scotland the only serious issue in this GE is how close the Tories get to a de facto majority.
What are you talking about? The Tories look like being well short of a majority. How do they get there? With the DUP and Lib Dems? Unless there's an uptick in the polls that would be a paper thin majority with two other parties that are miles apart. I'm starting to think if Cameron is going to hang on it'll be down to Labour backbenchers.
So what polls are there tomorrow. Cracking stuff this, also the fact that the results coming out are AOTS makes it even more interesting, oh, and the fact every one with a Tory lead is followed by a Dan Hodges quote / the day the polls turned/ is the Miliband/Sturgeon threat cutting through. Cracking entertainment .
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers · EXC PM warns Ukip voters: don't let in Lab government that will deny EU referendum + allow "uncontrolled immigration
yougov= same old stale panel of left leaners , politically active plus change of methodology to favour labour this year, not the ordinary voter terrified of EdM / SNP running (ruining) the UK
Its getting to the point where decimal points would be useful eg it could be two 4.4% tory leads and a labour 1.6 and 2.6% lead or it could be tory 3.6% x2 v labour 2.6 and 3.4..... unless I'm misinformed as to rounding up/ down I also wonder if maybe you gov regardless of whether they're accurate as to the leader has somehow got a better handle on margin of error and actually little is changing.
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers · EXC PM warns Ukip voters: don't let in Lab government that will deny EU referendum + allow "uncontrolled immigration
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers · EXC PM warns Ukip voters: don't let in Lab government that will deny EU referendum + allow "uncontrolled immigration
So, just like the Cameroons then.
Proberly but I agree it will be higher under labour.
FB All senior LDs - Alexander, Davey etc have said that if the Tories have most seats under the present boundaries then Labour would need at least the SNP and LDs in all likelihood for a majority, and the LDs have said they will refuse to work with the SNP, they have not ruled out working with the Tories and DUP
YG's methodology change two weeks ago has killed them. They've built in what looks like a skew towards one party.
I still think it is because they don't recycle their panel enough. I have been asked the standard VI question for 3 out of the last 5 days with them. The other problem with YouGov is that they are, first and foremost, a political pollster so people who sign up are politically inclined which isn't a true reflection of the country.
I think the problem is more 'there's no one I want to vote for' than 'I haven't decided who to vote for'.
Essentially.
Which is why I still think we could see a late UKIP surge (possibly starting already?), in the same way that the Lib Dems always used to surge in the final couple of weeks, after people had been reminded of everything they hated about the main parties.
No idea. My gut says the waverers will go centre - but who knows?
Is this based on the popular vote getting more in Con's favour between now and the GE, or Labour underperforming uniform swing?
Labour will get many additional votes in places where it will make little difference. Many safe Labour seats in E&W will get safer, as will a number of Labour-held marginals.
Comments
For how long?
Does it matter to my Betfair position ? 1 day is good enough
Wasn't Farage 11% ahead in the last one?
HQ tells him what's what and we get a pb hodges type comment.
UKIP 0
CON +3
LAB -2
LD 0
GRN -1
Funded by the Daily Express?
Please read earlier thread for explanation I can't go through it all again!!
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ITV-News-Daily-Mail-Political-Poll-23rd-April-2015-74832.pdf
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-daily-mail-political-poll/
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
LOL.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/591352420762001409
She will be on the warpath tonight.
1) Question: Can Greece print Euros, does Greece print Euros, and does it have a Euro printing press? Answer: Yes it can, yes it does, yes it does. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_banknotes
2) Question: Does Nate Silver do 2015 GE preds? Answer: His site (FiveThirtyEight) does, but he doesn't do them, they're done by Hanretty/Lauderdale/Vivyan (better known as http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/ ) and he rebadges them (http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/ )
Gotta go, go, go
Latest YouGov poll (22 - 23 Apr):
LAB - 35% (+1)
CON - 33% (-)
UKIP - 13% (-1)
LDEM - 8% (+1)
GRN - 5% (-)
No change.
Conservatives 31-36%
Labour 29-35%
UKIP 10-18%
At 260, it's deadlocked and anyones guess.
From a mathematical perspective, your SPUD should equal the sum of all these poll changes, and should therefore also equal Zero. Now, if there are 10 polls, then the Otherr +12 is possible (at 1.2 per poll), but it does seem high.
TBF, having a Tory minority government, but one which is literally unable to get any of its nastier policies through Parliament, wouldn't be the worst outcome in the world.
SPUD after 11 polls from 7 different pollsters
4 polls today
Day (week)
CON -1 (-8)
LAB -4 (-8)
UKIP -1 (+6)
LD -1 (+1)
Green +2 (-2)
Which is why I still think we could see a late UKIP surge (possibly starting already?), in the same way that the Lib Dems always used to surge in the final couple of weeks, after people had been reminded of everything they hated about the main parties.
CON looking at min 310 possibly 340 - no need to deal with small parties!
Obviously Survation is the platinum glazed, diamond, quadruple lock standard but Labour at 29% just seems too high. I mean how many stupid people are there out there who could conceive voting for the socialist thugs accompanied by their Jock cheerleaders.
Ignore YouGov and Panelbase- you'll sleep better
Conservatives: 290
Labour: 260
SNP: 55
Liberal Democrats: 20
DUP: 9
UKIP: 4
They would have to choose between:
- Joining a Conservative-DUP-UKIP right wing coalition, with a majority of votes, a theoretical majority in the Commons but an impossible to govern one
- Joining a Labour-SNP left wing coalition that has a better Commons majority but a minority of votes
- Forcing another election
One poll takes you close to the spending limit.
De facto I'd say is the Tories plus NI, with LDs doing confidence and supply. It's not the most likely result, but it's quite possible and would not be a huge surprise. Labour's vote will go up, but in many cases in seats where there is already a Labour MP.
EXC PM warns Ukip voters: don't let in Lab government that will deny EU referendum + allow "uncontrolled immigration
I also wonder if maybe you gov regardless of whether they're accurate as to the leader has somehow got a better handle on margin of error and actually little is changing.
The Tories or Labour are approaching a majority, with UKIP & LD's either rising or collapsing.
So everyone is happy.
Get a polling average.
Goodnight.
Piers Morgan now getting roasted and booed.
First result in!!
CON gain Sunderland W!!!
Cheerio ED!!!!
Con start with 307, gain 10 LD, lose 40 Lab, 2 UKIP and 1 SNP. This gives them 274.
Same assumptions gives Lab 267.
Con + LD + UKIP + DUP = 312
Lab + SNP + PC + Grn +SDLP = 331
And this is assuming that the LDs go with the Cons.
Don't think he will have a job come May 8th