If I were to tell you there was a phone poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If I were to tell you there was an online poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If your answers are about 5% apart, join the club. And averaging the two probably isn't that sound - it's likely that one method is wrong. Which?
Or both methods are wrong for different problems with getting a representative sample. I worry about phone polls since so many people I know don't ever use their landlines (let alone shy Kippers or whatever). Online polls seem to recruit a specific constituency - one more engaged with politics, perhaps.
If I were to tell you there was a phone poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If I were to tell you there was an online poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If your answers are about 5% apart, join the club. And averaging the two probably isn't that sound - it's likely that one method is wrong. Which?
I think it'll all come out in the wash you know. This ain't 1992 when all the polls failed to capture the Tory vote for the whole length of the campaign.
Well we won't know that until after the election either, by definition!
Yes we do know. Either half of the polls are right- and the Tories will win with a clear 3-4% lead. Or, the other half are right and Labour will win with a 1-2% lead. Or none will win.
1992 was unique because ALL the polls underestimated the extent of the Tory lead. A similar result would require the Tories ending up with about a 10% national lead based on current polls.
If I were to tell you there was a phone poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If I were to tell you there was an online poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If your answers are about 5% apart, join the club. And averaging the two probably isn't that sound - it's likely that one method is wrong. Which?
I think it'll all come out in the wash you know. This ain't 1992 when all the polls failed to capture the Tory vote for the whole length of the campaign.
Well we won't know that until after the election either, by definition!
Yes we do know. Either half of the polls are right- and the Tories will win with a clear 3-4% lead. Or, the other half are right and Labour will win with a 1-2% lead. Or none will win.
1992 was unique because ALL the polls underestimated the extent of the Tory lead. A similar result would require the Tories ending up with about a 10% national lead based on current polls.
A 7% Tory win (or a 5% Labour win) would be sufficient to say they'd all got it wrong, I think.
I know I will be even less popular than normal by saying this but I am sick of being lectured to by some whining Aussie.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
Is she not a Kiwi? Listen Nige, I know we are kind of dreading what is going to happen in the summer, but don;t conflate things with that poor Kiwi (or Aussie).
At least I had a good nap watching Trotters and Cookie push around against an attack that would not have even made the Oxford University team.
Someone below got it right, we need a proper quickie who bowls at 90 mph and one aggressive opener. Not sure who that would be, maybe Hales?
I think we need a leg spinner, Borthwick or Rashid, Root and Ballance can bowl off spin. Would love to see a left arm bowler such as Underwood but not many like him these days!
Good call on Hales. I'd have blooded Lyth in this series, he'd have had 5 tests to get his feet under the table before the Ashes. England are always conservative in their selection: will the Aussies fear Trott? No way.
Carberry was discarded too quickly, he did better than most in Australia.
I once spoke to Nasser at a dinner when KP was starting out and he told us what a ghastly character he is, but KP may have had a point about the cliques in the team. Both Carberry and Compton before him were chucked out with no real justification.
And Robson, to a lesser extent.
Can't stand KP. One of the most overhyped British sportsmen of all time. Cricket journos just oscillate between him and Cook's batting record. More important issues in English crciket at the moment.
If I were to tell you there was a phone poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If I were to tell you there was an online poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If your answers are about 5% apart, join the club. And averaging the two probably isn't that sound - it's likely that one method is wrong. Which?
I think it'll all come out in the wash you know. This ain't 1992 when all the polls failed to capture the Tory vote for the whole length of the campaign.
Well we won't know that until after the election either, by definition!
Yes we do know. Either half of the polls are right- and the Tories will win with a clear 3-4% lead. Or, the other half are right and Labour will win with a 1-2% lead. Or none will win.
1992 was unique because ALL the polls underestimated the extent of the Tory lead. A similar result would require the Tories ending up with about a 10% national lead based on current polls.
A 7% Tory win (or a 5% Labour win) would be sufficient to say they'd all got it wrong, I think.
If I were to tell you there was a phone poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If I were to tell you there was an online poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If your answers are about 5% apart, join the club. And averaging the two probably isn't that sound - it's likely that one method is wrong. Which?
Or both methods are wrong for different problems with getting a representative sample. I worry about phone polls since so many people I know don't ever use their landlines (let alone shy Kippers or whatever). Online polls seem to recruit a specific constituency - one more engaged with politics, perhaps.
The average won't be the answer,
Yes good point on both methods
Few people bother with a landline, and no one i know would bother with online polls questions
I think you very heavily underate how much Murphy is disliked. He is now minus 30 or so after a mere 5 months in office. These are ratings far below his much derided predecessor. I think he is going down but even more significantly I hope he is going down in a way which I would not feel about many other Labour figures - and if people think like me at all then his goose is well and truly cooked.
Saltire I still think Murphy will cling on with Tory tactical voting, to lead a rump of about 10-15 Labour MPs and prepare for Holyrood next year, in the debates he performed OK
Saltire I still think Murphy will cling on with Tory tactical voting, to lead a rump of about 10-15 Labour MPs and prepare for Holyrood next year, in the debates he performed OK
If you seriously think that Labour will get 10-15 MPs in Scotland then you should bet accordingly. You should get some very decent odds on that now... Personally I don't think that Labour have worked yet that in Scotland they gain no votes attacking the Tories, the anti-conservative vote goes to the nationalists now. Until they can make a better case for themselves compared to the SNP on actual policies they are going to slump down to around 20% of the vote and probably 2-6 MPs
I know I will be even less popular than normal by saying this but I am sick of being lectured to by some whining Aussie.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
Is she not a Kiwi? Listen Nige, I know we are kind of dreading what is going to happen in the summer, but don;t conflate things with that poor Kiwi (or Aussie).
At least I had a good nap watching Trotters and Cookie push around against an attack that would not have even made the Oxford University team.
Someone below got it right, we need a proper quickie who bowls at 90 mph and one aggressive opener. Not sure who that would be, maybe Hales?
I think we need a leg spinner, Borthwick or Rashid, Root and Ballance can bowl off spin. Would love to see a left arm bowler such as Underwood but not many like him these days!
Good call on Hales. I'd have blooded Lyth in this series, he'd have had 5 tests to get his feet under the table before the Ashes. England are always conservative in their selection: will the Aussies fear Trott? No way.
Carberry was discarded too quickly, he did better than most in Australia.
I once spoke to Nasser at a dinner when KP was starting out and he told us what a ghastly character he is, but KP may have had a point about the cliques in the team. Both Carberry and Compton before him were chucked out with no real justification.
Carberry and Robson aren't technically good enough.
The problem with Carberry is that he isn't a 20 year old, where getting him in the setup maybe in a 1-2 years he will be technically much better. He is 34 now.
Moleen Ali batting is technically suspect as well.
At the moment, England are missing that boring rock that will just bat for hour after hour and you really have to bowl a super delivery to get them. And variation in the bowling, as soon as good batsmen get in, our attack is too samey (and we don't have anybody with rip roaring pace). Tymal Mills is certainly rapid and left arm, but he is still totally unproven above and beyond putting the shits up English batsmen in the nets.
scotslass He polls better than Miliband and Lamont, Jesus Christ could not save Scottish Labour at this election, next year's Holyrood election when they have nothing to lose and where the SNP already have a majority will be their chance to rebuild, helped by the PR list
Saltire I still think Murphy will cling on with Tory tactical voting, to lead a rump of about 10-15 Labour MPs and prepare for Holyrood next year, in the debates he performed OK
Saltire I still think Murphy will cling on with Tory tactical voting, to lead a rump of about 10-15 Labour MPs and prepare for Holyrood next year, in the debates he performed OK
If you seriously think that Labour will get 10-15 MPs in Scotland then you should bet accordingly. You should get some very decent odds on that now... Personally I don't think that Labour have worked yet that in Scotland they gain no votes attacking the Tories, the anti-conservative vote goes to the nationalists now. Until they can make a better case for themselves compared to the SNP on actual policies they are going to slump down to around 20% of the vote and probably 2-6 MPs
I agree. Tories generally do not vote tactically, and Scots Con support is firmer than SLAB. I could see Scots Cons voting for Danny Alexander, but not for the likes of Jim Murphy.
I know I will be even less popular than normal by saying this but I am sick of being lectured to by some whining Aussie.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
Is she not a Kiwi? Listen Nige, I know we are kind of dreading what is going to happen in the summer, but don;t conflate things with that poor Kiwi (or Aussie).
At least I had a good nap watching Trotters and Cookie push around against an attack that would not have even made the Oxford University team.
Someone below got it right, we need a proper quickie who bowls at 90 mph and one aggressive opener. Not sure who that would be, maybe Hales?
I think we need a leg spinner, Borthwick or Rashid, Root and Ballance can bowl off spin. Would love to see a left arm bowler such as Underwood but not many like him these days!
Good call on Hales. I'd have blooded Lyth in this series, he'd have had 5 tests to get his feet under the table before the Ashes. England are always conservative in their selection: will the Aussies fear Trott? No way.
Carberry was discarded too quickly, he did better than most in Australia.
I once spoke to Nasser at a dinner when KP was starting out and he told us what a ghastly character he is, but KP may have had a point about the cliques in the team. Both Carberry and Compton before him were chucked out with no real justification.
Carberry and Robson aren't technically good enough.
The problem with Carberry is that he isn't a 20 year old, where getting him in the setup maybe in a 1-2 years he will be technically much better. He is 34 now.
Moleen Ali batting is technically suspect as well.
At the moment, England are missing that boring rock that will just bat for hour after hour and you really have to bowl a super delivery to get them. And variation in the bowling, as soon as good batsmen get in, our attack is too samey (and we don't have anybody with rip roaring pace). Tymal Mills is certainly rapid and left arm, but he is still totally unproven above and beyond putting the shits up English batsmen in the nets.
Ballance could well be that rock, and Mills must be given a chance soon, our very own version of Mitchell Johnson. Stick an aggressive opener in with Cook, say Hales, and if he fails then Ballance comes in to shore it up. But if Hales does well we have got 100 before lunch on the first day.
I know I will be even less popular than normal by saying this but I am sick of being lectured to by some whining Aussie.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
Is she not a Kiwi? Listen Nige, I know we are kind of dreading what is going to happen in the summer, but don;t conflate things with that poor Kiwi (or Aussie).
At least I had a good nap watching Trotters and Cookie push around against an attack that would not have even made the Oxford University team.
Someone below got it right, we need a proper quickie who bowls at 90 mph and one aggressive opener. Not sure who that would be, maybe Hales?
I think we need a leg spinner, Borthwick or Rashid, Root and Ballance can bowl off spin. Would love to see a left arm bowler such as Underwood but not many like him these days!
Good call on Hales. I'd have blooded Lyth in this series, he'd have had 5 tests to get his feet under the table before the Ashes. England are always conservative in their selection: will the Aussies fear Trott? No way.
Carberry was discarded too quickly, he did better than most in Australia.
I once spoke to Nasser at a dinner when KP was starting out and he told us what a ghastly character he is, but KP may have had a point about the cliques in the team. Both Carberry and Compton before him were chucked out with no real justification.
Carberry and Robson aren't technically good enough.
The problem with Carberry is that he isn't a 20 year old, where getting him in the setup maybe in a 1-2 years he will be technically much better. He is 34 now.
Moleen Ali batting is technically suspect as well.
At the moment, England are missing that boring rock that will just bat for hour after hour and you really have to bowl a super delivery to get them. And variation in the bowling, as soon as good batsmen get in, our attack is too samey (and we don't have anybody with rip roaring pace). Tymal Mills is certainly rapid and left arm, but he is still totally unproven above and beyond putting the shits up English batsmen in the nets.
On the contrary, England arguably have those stonewalls in Cook (form admittedly suspect), Trott (just coming back), Ballance (the new Trott), and Root too can go slow and get stuck in when needed.
What England need is an attacking batsman that will get at the Aussie attack and knock it off its stride. Hales might do that.
Saltire Without tactical voting Labour would get 2-6 seats, but I think enough Tories will hold their noses in the likes of Edinburgh South and Renfrewshire to get Labour up to about 12-13 seats
On the contrary, England arguably have those stonewalls in Cook (form admittedly suspect), Trott (just coming back), Ballance (the new Trott), and Root too can go slow and get stuck in when needed.
What England need is an attacking batsman that will get at the Aussie attack and knock it off its stride. Hales might do that.
Cook once was that rock, but has been out of form for 2 years now. Trott, was again definitely in that mould but we don't know if he can take it against the Ozzies. So I don't think we can claim they are the rocks in England's team.
Ballance perhaps.
I still don't think we have that player like Steve Waugh, who you just know you better bowl a super ball early on otherwise it is going to be a long old day. And he kept that up for years on end.
Mr Cameron will say: “Soon, the Scottish Parliament will be voting to set its own levels of income tax — and rightly so — but that has clear implications.
“English MPs will be unable to vote on the income tax paid by people in Aberdeen and Edinburgh while Scottish MPs are able to vote on the tax you pay in Birmingham or Canterbury or Leeds. It is simply unfair. And with ‘English votes for English laws’ we will put it right.”
Someone made a decent point at dinner tonight - the only people who would fill in a lengthy YouGov poll for 50p are the political obsessives, or the very poor. Which is not the way to get a balanced sample....
I'm watching the final Hobbit movie. One of the good things about the Peter Jackson Tolkein films is that they are so incredibly slow paced you can disappear for 10 minutes and know you won't miss anything.
Hey Tim
According to my colleagues Tebow fever is gripping the city (or something)
He is now a Philadelphia Eagle, on a 1 year non-guaranteed contract. They have 5 qbs including Sanchez, Barkley and Bradford.
It'll be interesting to see if this is a good move or if Chip Kelly's ego is in overdrive.
Saltire I still think Murphy will cling on with Tory tactical voting, to lead a rump of about 10-15 Labour MPs and prepare for Holyrood next year, in the debates he performed OK
Saltire I still think Murphy will cling on with Tory tactical voting, to lead a rump of about 10-15 Labour MPs and prepare for Holyrood next year, in the debates he performed OK
If you seriously think that Labour will get 10-15 MPs in Scotland then you should bet accordingly. You should get some very decent odds on that now... Personally I don't think that Labour have worked yet that in Scotland they gain no votes attacking the Tories, the anti-conservative vote goes to the nationalists now. Until they can make a better case for themselves compared to the SNP on actual policies they are going to slump down to around 20% of the vote and probably 2-6 MPs
I agree. Tories generally do not vote tactically, and Scots Con support is firmer than SLAB. I could see Scots Cons voting for Danny Alexander, but not for the likes of Jim Murphy.
No Con should ever vote for Lab. Not under any circumstances.
On the contrary, England arguably have those stonewalls in Cook (form admittedly suspect), Trott (just coming back), Ballance (the new Trott), and Root too can go slow and get stuck in when needed.
What England need is an attacking batsman that will get at the Aussie attack and knock it off its stride. Hales might do that.
Cook once was that rock, but has been out of form for 2 years now. Trott, was again definitely in that mould but we don't know if he can take it against the Ozzies. So I don't think we can claim they are the rocks in England's team.
Ballance perhaps.
I still don't think we have that player like Steve Waugh, who you just know you better bowl a super ball early on otherwise it is going to be a long old day. And he kept that up for years on end.
Form is temporary but approach isn't: Cook and Trott are naturally defensive batsmen who have shown themselves capable of supreme acts of concentration in the past. Whether they are in form or not is a different matter (Trott I wouldn't have recalled). Only Buttler is someone who could get seriously out of hand from an Aussie point of view (the jury's very much out on Stokes). England need another Buttler further up the order.
Saltire I still think Murphy will cling on with Tory tactical voting, to lead a rump of about 10-15 Labour MPs and prepare for Holyrood next year, in the debates he performed OK
Saltire I still think Murphy will cling on with Tory tactical voting, to lead a rump of about 10-15 Labour MPs and prepare for Holyrood next year, in the debates he performed OK
If you seriously think that Labour will get 10-15 MPs in Scotland then you should bet accordingly. You should get some very decent odds on that now... Personally I don't think that Labour have worked yet that in Scotland they gain no votes attacking the Tories, the anti-conservative vote goes to the nationalists now. Until they can make a better case for themselves compared to the SNP on actual policies they are going to slump down to around 20% of the vote and probably 2-6 MPs
I agree. Tories generally do not vote tactically, and Scots Con support is firmer than SLAB. I could see Scots Cons voting for Danny Alexander, but not for the likes of Jim Murphy.
After decades of demonisation by Scottish Labour, Scots Tories are suddenly going to think 'oh, they're not so bad after all?'
On the contrary, England arguably have those stonewalls in Cook (form admittedly suspect), Trott (just coming back), Ballance (the new Trott), and Root too can go slow and get stuck in when needed.
What England need is an attacking batsman that will get at the Aussie attack and knock it off its stride. Hales might do that.
Cook once was that rock, but has been out of form for 2 years now. Trott, was again definitely in that mould but we don't know if he can take it against the Ozzies. So I don't think we can claim they are the rocks in England's team.
Ballance perhaps.
I still don't think we have that player like Steve Waugh, who you just know you better bowl a super ball early on otherwise it is going to be a long old day. And he kept that up for years on end.
Form is temporary but approach isn't: Cook and Trott are naturally defensive batsmen who have shown themselves capable of supreme acts of concentration in the past. Whether they are in form or not is a different matter (Trott I wouldn't have recalled). Only Buttler is someone who could get seriously out of hand from an Aussie point of view (the jury's very much out on Stokes). England need another Buttler further up the order.
I don't disagree that both are much more defensive batsmen, but they aren't a "rock" for England, not at the moment or over the past 2 years. At the beginning of his England career, Cook was that solid dependable, s##t if we don't get him out very early on, he will still be there in 6hrs time nudging it for singles. He hasn't managed to regain that.
On the contrary, England arguably have those stonewalls in Cook (form admittedly suspect), Trott (just coming back), Ballance (the new Trott), and Root too can go slow and get stuck in when needed.
What England need is an attacking batsman that will get at the Aussie attack and knock it off its stride. Hales might do that.
Cook once was that rock, but has been out of form for 2 years now. Trott, was again definitely in that mould but we don't know if he can take it against the Ozzies. So I don't think we can claim they are the rocks in England's team.
Ballance perhaps.
I still don't think we have that player like Steve Waugh, who you just know you better bowl a super ball early on otherwise it is going to be a long old day. And he kept that up for years on end.
Form is temporary but approach isn't: Cook and Trott are naturally defensive batsmen who have shown themselves capable of supreme acts of concentration in the past. Whether they are in form or not is a different matter (Trott I wouldn't have recalled). Only Buttler is someone who could get seriously out of hand from an Aussie point of view (the jury's very much out on Stokes). England need another Buttler further up the order.
I don't disagree that both are much more defensive batsmen, but they aren't a "rock" for England, not at the moment or over the past 2 years. At the beginning of his England career, Cook was that solid dependable, s##t if we don't get him out very early on, he will still be there in 6hrs time nudging it for singles. He hasn't managed to regain that.
I wouldn't have Trott open either.
Another issue is Moeen. I like him, but his selection is a classic England fudge: he's not good enough to get in either solely on his bowling or on his batting. They don't need his batting: it's a nonsense that Buttler's batting at No.8. Stokes and Buttler can go higher and a specialist spinner brought in.
Another issue is Moeen. I like him, but his selection is a classic England fudge: he's not good enough to get in either solely on his bowling or on his batting. They don't need his batting: it's a nonsense that Buttler's batting at No.8. Stokes and Buttler can go higher and a specialist spinner brought in.
I mentioned Ali down thread. He was brought in as batsmen, but had a good few matches with the ball (because we didn't have a replacement for Swann). That glossed over the fact his batting was pretty crappy, too many 20-30's, which was his problem in county cricket.
I am not sure what we do with him. Can he become a real terror with the ball, or has he now been worked out? Can his dodgy batting technique and lapses of concentration be improved on, again I don't know.
Is there a good enough specalist spinner on the county circuit? There is obviously some concerns in the powers that be over Rashid and the 2-3 other names that have been mentioned / in and around the squad don't appear to be good enough.
Swann retiring is a bigger void to fill than people reaslied. He was extremely consistent for England, always dangerous, never spanked all over the park and continued to improve year on year.
In my view, he either has to be picked for his bowling - in which case he bats at No.8 - or he is dropped for a specialist spinner. The balance of the side in the First Test was better IMO, with Tredwell. He didn't have a bad game, but was then dropped for Ali, which suggests the set-up is now picking Ali for his bowling foremost.
Like with the opening bat role, England have missed an opportunity to bed in a new player - Rashid? - before the Ashes.
Fox/PT/Carlotta Given a choice between Murphy and the SNP enough of the 25% of Tories will vote for him so he scrapes home, many remember he at least did sterling work for the No campaign. At Holyrood next year, when there is no risk of electing a UK Labour government by voting Labour, tactical voting will be higher than May and Tories will vote Labour in higher numbers at the constituency level to try and defeat the SNP there and then they will vote Tory on the regional list
Fox/PT/Carlotta Given a choice between Murphy and the SNP enough of the 25% of Tories will vote for him so he scrapes home, many remember he at least did sterling work for the No campaign. At Holyrood next year, when there is no risk of electing a UK Labour government by voting Labour, tactical voting will be higher than May and Tories will vote Labour in higher numbers at the constituency level to try and defeat the SNP there and then they will vote Tory on the regional list
PT Nope, there will be a trickle of tactical voting in May, by next year it will be commonplace, Tories voting Labour and LD, LD voting Labour and Tory, Labour voting LD maybe even a few Tory to stop the SNP. In Quebec eventually Canadian Tories started voting Liberal to beat the Quebec nationalists despite their bitter opposition federally, it will happen in Scotland too
Fox/PT/Carlotta Given a choice between Murphy and the SNP enough of the 25% of Tories will vote for him so he scrapes home, many remember he at least did sterling work for the No campaign. At Holyrood next year, when there is no risk of electing a UK Labour government by voting Labour, tactical voting will be higher than May and Tories will vote Labour in higher numbers at the constituency level to try and defeat the SNP there and then they will vote Tory on the regional list
I doubt Murphy's response to Cameron's 'English taxes' will enamour him to Scottish Tories.....why would they vote for EICIPM?
Fox/PT/Carlotta Given a choice between Murphy and the SNP enough of the 25% of Tories will vote for him so he scrapes home, many remember he at least did sterling work for the No campaign. At Holyrood next year, when there is no risk of electing a UK Labour government by voting Labour, tactical voting will be higher than May and Tories will vote Labour in higher numbers at the constituency level to try and defeat the SNP there and then they will vote Tory on the regional list
I think you're dreaming.
If Murphy were just campaigning in Renfrewshire East he could pull it off. But campaigning on "Tories Out" at a national level will kill him.
“It a difficult job he’s trying to do, running the national campaign while defending his own seat,” says John Wall, a former union official outside a garden centre. “It’s hard to ride two horses with one arse.”
PT Nope, there will be a trickle of tactical voting in May, by next year it will be commonplace, Tories voting Labour and LD, LD voting Labour and Tory, Labour voting LD maybe even a few Tory to stop the SNP. In Quebec eventually Canadian Tories started voting Liberal to beat the Quebec nationalists despite their bitter opposition federally, it will happen in Scotland too
Nope I don't believe it. SLD and SLAB maybe but SCON shares have stayed steady at this plataued rate despite Panda jokes and everything for 18 years. There seems to be no hint still of a major fall in SCON polling share from last year, the votes changing are from SLD and SLAB.
People who've stayed steady SCON voters through decades of SLAB demonisation are not going to all of a sudden decide to vote SLAB. It's simply not plausible.
Mr Cameron will say: “Soon, the Scottish Parliament will be voting to set its own levels of income tax — and rightly so — but that has clear implications.
“English MPs will be unable to vote on the income tax paid by people in Aberdeen and Edinburgh while Scottish MPs are able to vote on the tax you pay in Birmingham or Canterbury or Leeds. It is simply unfair. And with ‘English votes for English laws’ we will put it right.”
It is very difficult to see how this can be introduced without serious difficulty. Presumably it is a proposal that it will not be possible to pass any provision setting the rate of income tax in England without majority of English MPs agreeing to it. In short, it must follow that English MPs will have a veto over the Finance Bill. Yet it is absolutely clear that whatever happens after the election, the annual charge to income tax throughout the United Kingdom among other taxing provisions will remain reserved to Westminster Parliament, which means that it will be impossible to pass the Finance Bill without the consent of the whole of the House of Commons. That looks like a recipe for chaos.
Mr Cameron will say: “Soon, the Scottish Parliament will be voting to set its own levels of income tax — and rightly so — but that has clear implications.
“English MPs will be unable to vote on the income tax paid by people in Aberdeen and Edinburgh while Scottish MPs are able to vote on the tax you pay in Birmingham or Canterbury or Leeds. It is simply unfair. And with ‘English votes for English laws’ we will put it right.”
It is very difficult to see how this can be introduced without serious difficulty. Presumably it is a proposal that it will not be possible to pass any provision setting the rate of income tax in England without majority of English MPs agreeing to it. In short, it must follow that English MPs will have a veto over the Finance Bill. Yet it is absolutely clear that whatever happens after the election, the annual charge to income tax throughout the United Kingdom among other taxing provisions will remain reserved to Westminster Parliament, which means that it will be impossible to pass the Finance Bill without the consent of the whole of the House of Commons. That looks like a recipe for chaos.
I presume there will be a 'base rate' for the whole UK, voted on by all MPs in the UK Parliament, then the ability to vary that rate, up or down, plus or minus sweeties, in both Edinburgh, for Scotland, and Westminster for EWNI.......why would that be difficult?
If it can be made to work for Scotland, why can't it be made to work for the rest of the UK?
Saltire I still think Murphy will cling on with Tory tactical voting, to lead a rump of about 10-15 Labour MPs and prepare for Holyrood next year, in the debates he performed OK
Saltire I still think Murphy will cling on with Tory tactical voting, to lead a rump of about 10-15 Labour MPs and prepare for Holyrood next year, in the debates he performed OK
If you seriously think that Labour will get 10-15 MPs in Scotland then you should bet accordingly. You should get some very decent odds on that now... Personally I don't think that Labour have worked yet that in Scotland they gain no votes attacking the Tories, the anti-conservative vote goes to the nationalists now. Until they can make a better case for themselves compared to the SNP on actual policies they are going to slump down to around 20% of the vote and probably 2-6 MPs
I agree. Tories generally do not vote tactically, and Scots Con support is firmer than SLAB. I could see Scots Cons voting for Danny Alexander, but not for the likes of Jim Murphy.
No Con should ever vote for Lab. Not under any circumstances.
Absolubtely correct.
Though totting up my Edi South book... seems I am slightly long Labour there xD
Someone made a decent point at dinner tonight - the only people who would fill in a lengthy YouGov poll for 50p are the political obsessives, or the very poor. Which is not the way to get a balanced sample....
What I would like to see for the rest of the campaign from yougov is seperate Scotland polling as this is almost totally different region now. I would also love to see more questions like the above regarding meeting farage, watching tv debates, ppbs etc, particularly from online companies so we can understand the balance of a sample. If UKIP supporters have an undue weight on the online panels that may mean they are underestimating the other parties, notably the more middle class Tory, LD and green party votes.
I presume there will be a 'base rate' for the whole UK, voted on by all MPs in the UK Parliament, then the ability to vary that rate, up or down, plus or minus sweeties, in both Edinburgh, for Scotland, and Westminster for EWNI.......why would that be difficult?
If it can be made to work for Scotland, why can't it be made to work for the rest of the UK?
All the Scottish Parliament will be doing is voting on the rates and thresholds for income tax. It need not vote to make any provision at all on the matter. The Westminster Parliament in the annual Finance Bill makes the substantive taxing provisions (i.e. what is chargeable to tax) and must authorise the annual charge to income tax, without which no tax can be collected anywhere in the UK. Unless they propose to create a separate legislature for England, the Conservatives' plans seem to involve giving English MPs a veto over the whole of the UK Finance Bill, and non-English MPs a vote over the English rate of income tax in the Finance Bill.
How the Conservatives' plans will work in respect of Wales and Northern Ireland is also entirely unclear. There is a referendum to be held on income tax powers for Wales, and it is unclear whether the Northern Irish even want, let alone could exercise any income tax powers.
PhilipThompson Rubbish, in formerly safe Labour seats the Tories have never won in the likes of the Central belt Tories will start voting Labour as the only alternative to the SNP. In a few years, certainly on the constituency list at Holyrood, Labour and the SNP will get about 90%+ between them, as was the case in Quebec general elections which became straight Liberal Partis Quebecois contests
PhilipThompson Rubbish, in formerly safe Labour seats the Tories have never won in the likes of the Central belt Tories will start voting Labour as the only alternative to the SNP. In a few years, certainly on the constituency list at Holyrood, Labour and the SNP will get about 90%+ between them, as was the case in Quebec general elections which became straight Liberal Partis Quebecois contests
People like @DavidL are the exception rather than the rule I reckon.
Can you ever see ScottP, Easterross or TGOHF voting Labour (Yes yes I know he lives out of Scotland) ?
I can see SCONs voting Lib Dem... JUST but not SLAB. Tbh There are alot of SLAB constituencies where the Tories should naturally be challenging SNP - Stirling and Murphy's seat spring to mind.
Pulpstar Once this election is over by Holyrood next year (when the election will really be about the SNP with no potential UK Labour government on the ballot) Scottish Tories will know that if Labour are second to or just ahead of the SNP they are the only way to beat the nationalists on the constituency vote. They can still vote Tory on the regional list so that does not stop them electing a top-up Tory MSP too (another advantage to Holyrood tactical voting over Westminster)
PhilipThompson Rubbish, in formerly safe Labour seats the Tories have never won in the likes of the Central belt Tories will start voting Labour as the only alternative to the SNP. In a few years, certainly on the constituency list at Holyrood, Labour and the SNP will get about 90%+ between them, as was the case in Quebec general elections which became straight Liberal Partis Quebecois contests
Why would people who've opposed Labour for decades suddenly support them. It's not going to happen. The SCON voters haven't been voting SLD or SNP to oppose SLAB so why vote for their archrivals to oppose the SNP?
PT It will not happen at Westminster to such an extent no, but in Quebec in the 1981 and 1985 and 1989 and 1994 elections the Liberals and Partis Quebecois won about 90%+ between them and the centre-right Union Nationale Party's vote collapsed as Quebec elections were all about independence post the 1980 referendum, I would expect the same to happen in the next few Holyrood elections. It is inevitable, you are just Canute trying to turn back the tide. Tories can still vote Tory on the regional list, but at Holyrood they will be voting in a straight Labour v SNP contest for first minister, not a Labour v Tory contest as they would in Westminster elections
Mostly enjoyed TW this week. Although @afneil is a terrible ham, the show is better with a live audience. And Kohli, Bacon etc were pretty good form. It'd be good to have a daily late-night election show again.
Locus poll of polls shows slight recovery for Ukip, and the big two neck-and-neck, but I'm pretty sure the Tories are ahead really.
Con 33 Lab 33 Ukip 14 LD 8 Con 283 Lab 275 LD 20 Ukip 2 SNP 48 PC 3 G 1
Cameron may as well call a second referendum now. That is the implication of the current Tory stance. As a so-called Unionist party they have given up on Scotland and merely see it as a place that provides antiConservative MPs. History will not judge him well.
You're making a terrible mistake comparing apples and oranges.
SCON is part of a national Tory Party and represents a view on politics not represented by either SLAB or the SNP. That is not the same in Quebec in the seventies eighties. The other voters there were with a bungling and failing Quebec only party that went bust and deregistered. The Union Nationale was not a part of a national Tory Party.
Plus the UN continued in its final years with no elected representatives. It's final deregistration was acknowledging the inevitable. The Tories in Holyrood have elected representatives so are not remotely similar.
Moriarty Yet Scotland could be the only 1 of the 4 nations and provinces of the UK the Tories make net seat gains at Westminster on present polls, night
Cameron may as well call a second referendum now. That is the implication of the current Tory stance. As a so-called Unionist party they have given up on Scotland and merely see it as a place that provides antiConservative MPs. History will not judge him well.
How is English Votes for English Laws on devolved issues remotely negative or derogatory to the Scots. It is basic fairness.
Cameron may as well call a second referendum now. That is the implication of the current Tory stance. As a so-called Unionist party they have given up on Scotland and merely see it as a place that provides antiConservative MPs. History will not judge him well.
How is English Votes for English Laws on devolved issues remotely negative or derogatory to the Scots. It is basic fairness.
A key issue is 'what is devolved'. In England,London has some matters that MPs cannot vote on, whereas the same issues are open to votes across the UK when they apply outside London. The EVEL issue is wrapped up in complexities.
Another issue is what effect on Scottish calls for a second referendum will a Tory(led) government have? If the Conservative, and once the Unionist party, leads the next government, and we end up voting ourselves out of the EU, there will be a separate Scotland within a year.
We are never going to leave the EU. It's even less likely than Scottish independence or AV. As for it being complicated that is a lame reason to deny fairness. Devolution is complicated so should that be scrapped?
We are never going to leave the EU. It's even less likely than Scottish independence or AV. As for it being complicated that is a lame reason to deny fairness. Devolution is complicated so should that be scrapped?
If the choice was between being a member of EFTA and EEA and being a member of the EU, I believe the former would win.
However, the forces of "out" (aka UKIP) seem determined to make sure that will never happen.
We are never going to leave the EU. It's even less likely than Scottish independence or AV. As for it being complicated that is a lame reason to deny fairness. Devolution is complicated so should that be scrapped?
If the choice was between being a member of EFTA and EEA and being a member of the EU, I believe the former would win.
However, the forces of "out" (aka UKIP) seem determined to make sure that will never happen.
EFTA has almost all the things of the EU that irritated those who want Out, like free movement of people etc, but without the ability to have an input on the rules. Government by fax machine it's been described as. I'm sure even that would lose as why bother.
It's like leaving FPTP for AV. Some will vote No as they want real PR/Exit while others vote No as they want the status quo and others vote No as they're scared of change.
We are never going to leave the EU. It's even less likely than Scottish independence or AV. As for it being complicated that is a lame reason to deny fairness. Devolution is complicated so should that be scrapped?
If the choice was between being a member of EFTA and EEA and being a member of the EU, I believe the former would win.
However, the forces of "out" (aka UKIP) seem determined to make sure that will never happen.
EFTA has almost all the things of the EU that irritated those who want Out, like free movement of people etc, but without the ability to have an input on the rules. Government by fax machine it's been described as. I'm sure even that would lose as why bother.
It's like leaving FPTP for AV. Some will vote No as they want real PR/Exit while others vote No as they want the status quo and others vote No as they're scared of change.
That's not true.
Sure: EFTA/EEA includes free movement of people. But it doesn't include any requirement to support people (through the benefits system) who are not British. In other words, people who come here to work, and can find jobs = good. Those who beg on the streets, or come to exploit the benefits system or the NHS can be prevented.
And yes, it does require we conform with some EU law as regards the single market. But Norway is only required to implement 20% of EU law.
In a campaign where the destination was EFTA/EEA, a lot of businesses would be in favour.
I believe that the pro-EU side likes to pretend that EFTA/EEA is pointless or terrible or much the same. I believe that a few "useful idiots" on the out side wish to take it away from the British people as a choice.
However, I genuinely believe that it is what would be backed by the majority of the British people, should they be given that option. Instead the option is EU or something, but we're not exactly sure what, but, hey look at that bird! Isn't it it pretty!.
These polls are worrying in that the field work was conducted a day or so ago when the 'coalition of chaos' stuff was just beginning to be the main line of attack from the Tories. I always think that there is a lag of a day or so before an issue might impact on the polls. Of more interest will be the polls over the weekend when the issue will have been playing out in the media for several days. Attended a meeting in Swansea last night and Labour people from all three Swansea constituencies said that it has come up on the door step Wednesday and yesterday so clearly it is resonating with people - certainly more than anything else the Tories have tried since the start of the short campaign. Doubt it is will impact on the two seats covering the city but it might have some impact on Gower which is a much more mixed seat.
Comments
The average won't be the answer,
1992 was unique because ALL the polls underestimated the extent of the Tory lead. A similar result would require the Tories ending up with about a 10% national lead based on current polls.
Can't stand KP. One of the most overhyped British sportsmen of all time. Cricket journos just oscillate between him and Cook's batting record. More important issues in English crciket at the moment.
Few people bother with a landline, and no one i know would bother with online polls questions
I think you very heavily underate how much Murphy is disliked. He is now minus 30 or so after a mere 5 months in office. These are ratings far below his much derided predecessor. I think he is going down but even more significantly I hope he is going down in a way which I would not feel about many other Labour figures - and if people think like me at all then his goose is well and truly cooked.
Personally I don't think that Labour have worked yet that in Scotland they gain no votes attacking the Tories, the anti-conservative vote goes to the nationalists now.
Until they can make a better case for themselves compared to the SNP on actual policies they are going to slump down to around 20% of the vote and probably 2-6 MPs
The problem with Carberry is that he isn't a 20 year old, where getting him in the setup maybe in a 1-2 years he will be technically much better. He is 34 now.
Moleen Ali batting is technically suspect as well.
At the moment, England are missing that boring rock that will just bat for hour after hour and you really have to bowl a super delivery to get them. And variation in the bowling, as soon as good batsmen get in, our attack is too samey (and we don't have anybody with rip roaring pace). Tymal Mills is certainly rapid and left arm, but he is still totally unproven above and beyond putting the shits up English batsmen in the nets.
What England need is an attacking batsman that will get at the Aussie attack and knock it off its stride. Hales might do that.
Ballance perhaps.
I still don't think we have that player like Steve Waugh, who you just know you better bowl a super ball early on otherwise it is going to be a long old day. And he kept that up for years on end.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cf33d40c-e9d3-11e4-a687-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3YB5ceQSi
Mr Cameron will say: “Soon, the Scottish Parliament will be voting to set its own levels of income tax — and rightly so — but that has clear implications.
“English MPs will be unable to vote on the income tax paid by people in Aberdeen and Edinburgh while Scottish MPs are able to vote on the tax you pay in Birmingham or Canterbury or Leeds. It is simply unfair. And with ‘English votes for English laws’ we will put it right.”
It'll be interesting to see if this is a good move or if Chip Kelly's ego is in overdrive.
You don’t defeat Scottish nationalism with David Cameron’s English nationalism. You do it with social solidarity,”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/24/cameron-manifesto-england-only-income-tax-2016-ukip
I don't think so.
Chickens. Home. Roost.
I wouldn't have Trott open either.
I am not sure what we do with him. Can he become a real terror with the ball, or has he now been worked out? Can his dodgy batting technique and lapses of concentration be improved on, again I don't know.
Is there a good enough specalist spinner on the county circuit? There is obviously some concerns in the powers that be over Rashid and the 2-3 other names that have been mentioned / in and around the squad don't appear to be good enough.
Swann retiring is a bigger void to fill than people reaslied. He was extremely consistent for England, always dangerous, never spanked all over the park and continued to improve year on year.
Like with the opening bat role, England have missed an opportunity to bed in a new player - Rashid? - before the Ashes.
People who've stayed steady SCON voters through decades of SLAB demonisation are not going to all of a sudden decide to vote SLAB. It's simply not plausible.
If it can be made to work for Scotland, why can't it be made to work for the rest of the UK?
Though totting up my Edi South book... seems I am slightly long Labour there xD
How the Conservatives' plans will work in respect of Wales and Northern Ireland is also entirely unclear. There is a referendum to be held on income tax powers for Wales, and it is unclear whether the Northern Irish even want, let alone could exercise any income tax powers.
Can you ever see ScottP, Easterross or TGOHF voting Labour (Yes yes I know he lives out of Scotland) ?
I can see SCONs voting Lib Dem... JUST but not SLAB. Tbh There are alot of SLAB constituencies where the Tories should naturally be challenging SNP - Stirling and Murphy's seat spring to mind.
Hallam creeps closer to being an Evens shot Lib/Lab on Electionforecast model...
Locus poll of polls shows slight recovery for Ukip, and the big two neck-and-neck, but I'm pretty sure the Tories are ahead really.
Con 33 Lab 33 Ukip 14 LD 8
Con 283 Lab 275 LD 20 Ukip 2 SNP 48 PC 3 G 1
SCON is part of a national Tory Party and represents a view on politics not represented by either SLAB or the SNP. That is not the same in Quebec in the seventies eighties. The other voters there were with a bungling and failing Quebec only party that went bust and deregistered. The Union Nationale was not a part of a national Tory Party.
Plus the UN continued in its final years with no elected representatives. It's final deregistration was acknowledging the inevitable. The Tories in Holyrood have elected representatives so are not remotely similar.
However, the forces of "out" (aka UKIP) seem determined to make sure that will never happen.
It's like leaving FPTP for AV. Some will vote No as they want real PR/Exit while others vote No as they want the status quo and others vote No as they're scared of change.
None of this was in last weeks manifesto
Sure: EFTA/EEA includes free movement of people. But it doesn't include any requirement to support people (through the benefits system) who are not British. In other words, people who come here to work, and can find jobs = good. Those who beg on the streets, or come to exploit the benefits system or the NHS can be prevented.
And yes, it does require we conform with some EU law as regards the single market. But Norway is only required to implement 20% of EU law.
In a campaign where the destination was EFTA/EEA, a lot of businesses would be in favour.
I believe that the pro-EU side likes to pretend that EFTA/EEA is pointless or terrible or much the same. I believe that a few "useful idiots" on the out side wish to take it away from the British people as a choice.
However, I genuinely believe that it is what would be backed by the majority of the British people, should they be given that option. Instead the option is EU or something, but we're not exactly sure what, but, hey look at that bird! Isn't it it pretty!.