Tyke - your man now looks odds on to win his seat. Don't forget to raise a glass for him when the result comes on. Two days before Election Day you will get you third Labour PPC with all the rest of the PB brethren.
So in summary of today's polling: The Tories or Labour are approaching a majority, with UKIP & LD's either rising or collapsing. So everyone is happy.
Ha! It's like the old catchall weather forecast - warm and dry, but with some cooler and rainy spells.
You know that is the actual weather forecast today for election day too.
Oh and one last thing, many here blame yougov for sticking with their panel instead of randomly selected interviews, but the panel idea is there to exclude the possibility of outliers due to varying patches of party responders from sample to sample, thus avoiding large changes from poll to poll.
You won't see pogostick behaviour from yougov that you see from other pollsters.
Is this based on the popular vote getting more in Con's favour between now and the GE, or Labour underperforming uniform swing?
Labour will get many if additional votes in places where it will make little difference. Many safe Labour seats in E&W will get safer, as will a number of Labour-held marginals.
Agreed, especially in seats where the Libdems were in 2nd in 2010
FB The LDs have made clear they will back the largest party, if they back a Labour government which came second on seats and votes they will lose the few remaining seats they will hold in England and Wales to go along with the loss of almost all their Scottish seats in May
Where have the Lib Dems said that? As they've been at pains to point out plenty of times they don't necessarily get to choose who to support. The numbers could make the decision for them. If the anti-tory bloc is much bigger than the Tory one they may have no choice.
What will be a disaster for the Liberal Democrats would be a result something like the following:
- Joining a Conservative-DUP-UKIP right wing coalition, with a majority of votes, a theoretical majority in the Commons but an impossible to govern one - Joining a Labour-SNP left wing coalition that has a better Commons majority but a minority of votes - Forcing another election
You seem to miss out the PC Seats, they got three last time, perhaps heading for four this time. Plus the three SDLP seats and Lady Harmon.
Also keep an eye on Belfast North, it's got rapidly changing demographics and is going green fast. SF put 7% on it's vote there last time to come within 2,000 votes, it's got a very solid candidate and with the SDLP being squeezed could go green and take SF to 6 seats, DUP to 8 and lower the threshold for a majority by 2.
Is this based on the popular vote getting more in Con's favour between now and the GE, or Labour underperforming uniform swing?
Labour will get many if additional votes in places where it will make little difference. Many safe Labour seats in E&W will get safer, as will a number of Labour-held marginals.
Listen Southern- your posts have become as irritating as the newly fledgling mosquitoes here in Firenze. You know the pbCOM Tories will never accept you. All HIBAB- "heard it all before and better"
Is this based on the popular vote getting more in Con's favour between now and the GE, or Labour underperforming uniform swing?
It's based on the mental transformation that SO has made to become the pbHodges.
Really though, around here I see 50 Lab from Con gains treated as the maximum they can aspire to barring some massive change in the polls. I'm just struggling to reconcile that with the table Mike posted earlier. There seem to be three possible sources of downside:
- Lab underperforms UNS in E+W - "Swingback" or similar means that Con-Lab swing will be lower by the day - Some methodology flaw means that poll of polls is overrepresenting Con-Lab swing
Is it just that people are assuming one of those is true? Or is there some other reason I'm not understanding? And is there any evidence for the first one?
Is this based on the popular vote getting more in Con's favour between now and the GE, or Labour underperforming uniform swing?
Labour will get many if additional votes in places where it will make little difference. Many safe Labour seats in E&W will get safer, as will a number of Labour-held marginals.
Listen Southern- your posts have become as irritating as the newly fledgling mosquitoes here in Firenze. You know the pbCOM Tories will never accept you. All HIBAB- "heard it all before and better"
This is my time. I'm finally calling one right. Scotland has changed everything and saved JackW's bacon.
Is this based on the popular vote getting more in Con's favour between now and the GE, or Labour underperforming uniform swing?
Labour will get many additional votes in places where it will make little difference. Many safe Labour seats in E&W will get safer, as will a number of Labour-held marginals.
I know I will be even less popular than normal by saying this but I am sick of being lectured to by some whining Aussie.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
Many sitting Labour MPs in E&W are going to have larger majorities in two weeks. But that won't help Ed get to Number 10.
I think there's going to be a huge divergence in Labour's performance between metropolitan areas and everywhere else (in England & Wales).
It'll be the Midlands that really does for Labour.
Agree. If Labour can't win seats like Cannock Chase, Halesowen, Dudley South, Nuneaton, Erewash, Northampton North, it's game over. Hopefully there'll be plenty of reporters at the counts of those seats on election night to give us an early indication of what's happening.
Is this based on the popular vote getting more in Con's favour between now and the GE, or Labour underperforming uniform swing?
It's based on the mental transformation that SO has made to become the pbHodges.
Really though, around here I see 50 Lab from Con gains treated as the maximum they can aspire to barring some massive change in the polls. I'm just struggling to reconcile that with the table Mike posted earlier. There seem to be three possible sources of downside:
- Lab underperforms UNS in E+W - "Swingback" or similar means that Con-Lab swing will be lower by the day - Some methodology flaw means that poll of polls is overrepresenting Con-Lab swing
Is it just that people are assuming one of those is true? Or is there some other reason I'm not understanding? And is there any evidence for the first one?
I thought the evidence was that they were actually outperforming UNS in the marginals in E+W in any case?
It seems to me people are assuming the latter two of your three possibilities at the least.
Its getting to the point where decimal points would be useful eg it could be two 4.4% tory leads and a labour 1.6 and 2.6% lead or it could be tory 3.6% x2 v labour 2.6 and 3.4..... unless I'm misinformed as to rounding up/ down I also wonder if maybe you gov regardless of whether they're accurate as to the leader has somehow got a better handle on margin of error and actually little is changing.
Decimal points are only useful if you believe the Goddam things are accurate to one decimal place.
At least some of these polls have serious errors, so quoting the results to 1 decimal place is just false precision.
I have never believed the argument that lessons were learnt in 1992, and now polling is as accurate as quantum field theory.
Lessons probably were learnt in 1992, but not the right lessons for 2015.
Is this based on the popular vote getting more in Con's favour between now and the GE, or Labour underperforming uniform swing?
It's based on the mental transformation that SO has made to become the pbHodges.
Really though, around here I see 50 Lab from Con gains treated as the maximum they can aspire to barring some massive change in the polls. I'm just struggling to reconcile that with the table Mike posted earlier. There seem to be three possible sources of downside:
- Lab underperforms UNS in E+W - "Swingback" or similar means that Con-Lab swing will be lower by the day - Some methodology flaw means that poll of polls is overrepresenting Con-Lab swing
Is it just that people are assuming one of those is true? Or is there some other reason I'm not understanding? And is there any evidence for the first one?
I thought the evidence was that they were actually outperforming UNS in the marginals in E+W in any case?
It seems to me people are assuming the latter two of your three possibilities at the least.
Actually I guess the key thing is whether they're outperforming in the con-held marginals. And even more so the con-held marginals near the highr end of the expected con-lab swing.
The reaction to the Thanet South poll leaves me stupefied and is one of the reasons I started the spud
This is worse than the last poll from the constituency from Survation, so why is it hailed as good for Ukip??
Nearer the election and will help Farage with momentum. I don't really think he's 9% ahead though.
Exactly this, the worry must have been a UKIP to Tory movement in lead up to the election. 9% in 2 weeks is near insurmountable if the poll is correct. Big sample size too.
I know I will be even less popular than normal by saying this but I am sick of being lectured to by some whining Aussie.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
Is she not a Kiwi? Listen Nige, I know we are kind of dreading what is going to happen in the summer, but don;t conflate things with that poor Kiwi (or Aussie).
At least I had a good nap watching Trotters and Cookie push around against an attack that would not have even made the Oxford University team.
I know I will be even less popular than normal by saying this but I am sick of being lectured to by some whining Aussie.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
Is she not a Kiwi? Listen Nige, I know we are kind of dreading what is going to happen in the summer, but don;t conflate things with that poor Kiwi (or Aussie).
At least I had a good nap watching Trotters and Cookie push around against an attack that would not have even made the Oxford University team.
She's Aussie. My partner is a Kiwi and thinks she is dreadful.
Is this based on the popular vote getting more in Con's favour between now and the GE, or Labour underperforming uniform swing?
It's based on the mental transformation that SO has made to become the pbHodges.
Really though, around here I see 50 Lab from Con gains treated as the maximum they can aspire to barring some massive change in the polls. I'm just struggling to reconcile that with the table Mike posted earlier. There seem to be three possible sources of downside:
- Lab underperforms UNS in E+W - "Swingback" or similar means that Con-Lab swing will be lower by the day - Some methodology flaw means that poll of polls is overrepresenting Con-Lab swing
Is it just that people are assuming one of those is true? Or is there some other reason I'm not understanding? And is there any evidence for the first one?
Stereo- I have now tried reading your reply three times. It is far too late for my meagre brain to get around this kind of mathematical calculation. I think you sound right, but that is just because I am too lazy to try and really understand it all.
The reaction to the Thanet South poll leaves me stupefied and is one of the reasons I started the spud
This is worse than the last poll from the constituency from Survation, so why is it hailed as good for Ukip??
Nearer the election and will help Farage with momentum. I don't really think he's 9% ahead though.
Previous survation by election polls (small sample) overestimated Ukips lead by exactly 20%
Absolutely. I think this poll is a double-edged sword. It does suggest Farage is well in the lead, even when you strip out the Survation house effects. But it may not be a big enough lead to counteract an 'anyone but Ukip' vote now there is one clear challenger.
Rob Ford (Britain) @robfordmancs Better poll for Farage in Thanet from Survation, after poor one from ComRes 2 wks back. Would be useful to have another from @LordAshcroft
I know I will be even less popular than normal by saying this but I am sick of being lectured to by some whining Aussie.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
Is she not a Kiwi? Listen Nige, I know we are kind of dreading what is going to happen in the summer, but don;t conflate things with that poor Kiwi (or Aussie).
At least I had a good nap watching Trotters and Cookie push around against an attack that would not have even made the Oxford University team.
Someone below got it right, we need a proper quickie who bowls at 90 mph and one aggressive opener. Not sure who that would be, maybe Hales?
I think we need a leg spinner, Borthwick or Rashid, Root and Ballance can bowl off spin. Would love to see a left arm bowler such as Underwood but not many like him these days!
I know I will be even less popular than normal by saying this but I am sick of being lectured to by some whining Aussie.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
Is she not a Kiwi? Listen Nige, I know we are kind of dreading what is going to happen in the summer, but don;t conflate things with that poor Kiwi (or Aussie).
At least I had a good nap watching Trotters and Cookie push around against an attack that would not have even made the Oxford University team.
Oh dear Harriett on QT. It is kind of like watching Mohammed Ali in his last fights- well not quite but you get what I mean. She should have been out out to pasture a few moons ago mind.
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers · EXC PM warns Ukip voters: don't let in Lab government that will deny EU referendum + allow "uncontrolled immigration
So, just like the Cameroons then.
If Dave thinks that 300k net immigration is "controlled" then I'll some of whatever he's smoking.
The reaction to the Thanet South poll leaves me stupefied and is one of the reasons I started the spud
This is worse than the last poll from the constituency from Survation, so why is it hailed as good for Ukip??
Nearer the election and will help Farage with momentum. I don't really think he's 9% ahead though.
Previous survation by election polls (small sample) overestimated Ukips lead by exactly 20%
Absolutely. I think this poll is a double-edged sword. It does suggest Farage is well in the lead, even when you strip out the Survation house effects. But it may not be a big enough lead to counteract an 'anyone but Ukip' vote now there is one clear challenger.
I can honestly say as a political nerd who supports Ukip v strongly I am not the least bit worried about the 'anyone but Ukip' vote
This is sickening. I wouldn't be suprised if the security services are crawling all over CAGE so goodness knows why the NUS want to get into bed with them.
This is sickening. I wouldn't be suprised if the security services are crawling all over CAGE so goodness knows why the NUS want to get into bed with them.
The security services recruit at university. If I were in CAGE I would run a mile from the NUS.
I know I will be even less popular than normal by saying this but I am sick of being lectured to by some whining Aussie.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
Is she not a Kiwi? Listen Nige, I know we are kind of dreading what is going to happen in the summer, but don;t conflate things with that poor Kiwi (or Aussie).
At least I had a good nap watching Trotters and Cookie push around against an attack that would not have even made the Oxford University team.
I'm watching the final Hobbit movie. One of the good things about the Peter Jackson Tolkein films is that they are so incredibly slow paced you can disappear for 10 minutes and know you won't miss anything.
This is sickening. I wouldn't be suprised if the security services are crawling all over CAGE so goodness knows why the NUS want to get into bed with them.
The security services recruit at university. If I were in CAGE I would run a mile from the NUS.
As long as they avoid Oxbridge they should be fine.
I'm watching the final Hobbit movie. One of the good things about the Peter Jackson Tolkein films is that they are so incredibly slow paced you can disappear for 10 minutes and know you won't miss anything.
Hey Tim
According to my colleagues Tebow fever is gripping the city (or something)
I know I will be even less popular than normal by saying this but I am sick of being lectured to by some whining Aussie.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
Is she not a Kiwi? Listen Nige, I know we are kind of dreading what is going to happen in the summer, but don;t conflate things with that poor Kiwi (or Aussie).
At least I had a good nap watching Trotters and Cookie push around against an attack that would not have even made the Oxford University team.
Someone below got it right, we need a proper quickie who bowls at 90 mph and one aggressive opener. Not sure who that would be, maybe Hales?
I think we need a leg spinner, Borthwick or Rashid, Root and Ballance can bowl off spin. Would love to see a left arm bowler such as Underwood but not many like him these days!
Good call on Hales. I'd have blooded Lyth in this series, he'd have had 5 tests to get his feet under the table before the Ashes. England are always conservative in their selection: will the Aussies fear Trott? No way.
England will have its own rate of income tax within one year under Conservative plans to ensure that Scottish Labour and SNP MPs are never able to “dictate” what happens south of the border, William Hague has said. Mr Hague will on Friday unveil the Conservative Party’s English manifesto alongside David Cameron to ensure that Scottish MPs can no longer have a deciding say on rates of taxation for English families.
Saltire I still think Murphy will cling on with Tory tactical voting, to lead a rump of about 10-15 Labour MPs and prepare for Holyrood next year, in the debates he performed OK
England will have its own rate of income tax within one year under Conservative plans to ensure that Scottish Labour and SNP MPs are never able to “dictate” what happens south of the border, William Hague has said. Mr Hague will on Friday unveil the Conservative Party’s English manifesto alongside David Cameron to ensure that Scottish MPs can no longer have a deciding say on rates of taxation for English families.
That seems to be moving in the right direction, but why do English MPs just get a "veto"? Do the non-English MPs also get a vote at some stage? Why don't the English get the only vote?
I'm watching the final Hobbit movie. One of the good things about the Peter Jackson Tolkein films is that they are so incredibly slow paced you can disappear for 10 minutes and know you won't miss anything.
You know when those eagles that flew in and saved Frodo out of Mount Doom at the very end of part three (after watching nearly nine hours of film in total). Why weren't those very same eagles given the ring in the first place- they could have flown across and dropped it in. No fuss. Would have saved us all three, tortuous films. Could have been cut down to a five minute short.
The audience are lapping up Paul Nuttall. Strong candidate for next leader.
Woolfe is another good candidate
UKIP have quite a few solid candidates, Steven Woolfe, Paul Nuttall, Suzanne Evans, Diane Evans and Douglas Carswell.
I would personally like to see either Woolfe or Nuttall as next leader.
Quite spoilt when you consider Labour and the Tories don't have a great many decent candidates to chose from.
Does Nuttall just wear glasses for show? I'm just watching QT and there's no refraction or diffraction as far as I can see.
Probably varifocals. I have a pair with no real distance correction that I wear as an alternative to forgetting a pair of readers. His are probably the same.
The audience are lapping up Paul Nuttall. Strong candidate for next leader.
Woolfe is another good candidate
UKIP have quite a few solid candidates, Steven Woolfe, Paul Nuttall, Suzanne Evans, Diane Evans and Douglas Carswell.
I would personally like to see either Woolfe or Nuttall as next leader.
Quite spoilt when you consider Labour and the Tories don't have a great many decent candidates to chose from.
Does Nuttall just wear glasses for show? I'm just watching QT and there's no refraction or diffraction as far as I can see.
Probably varifocals. I have a pair with no real distance correction that I wear as an alternative to forgetting a pair of readers. His are probably the same.
Perhaps. He doesn't look down at his notes in the way that you might expect.
Regarding UKIP leadership: I guess it might depend on how many MPs they get. If Farage loses in Thanet and UKIP get 1-3/4(ish) MPs, then a leader who is not in the Commons is entirely reasonable. If Farage loses but UKIP gain 4/5(ish)+ MPs then it would start to make sense to have a leader picked from the group of MPs to direct play in the Commons.
The audience are lapping up Paul Nuttall. Strong candidate for next leader.
Woolfe is another good candidate
UKIP have quite a few solid candidates, Steven Woolfe, Paul Nuttall, Suzanne Evans, Diane Evans and Douglas Carswell.
I would personally like to see either Woolfe or Nuttall as next leader.
Quite spoilt when you consider Labour and the Tories don't have a great many decent candidates to chose from.
Does Nuttall just wear glasses for show? I'm just watching QT and there's no refraction or diffraction as far as I can see.
Probably varifocals. I have a pair with no real distance correction that I wear as an alternative to forgetting a pair of readers. His are probably the same.
Perhaps. He doesn't look down at his notes in the way that you might expect.
I'm watching the final Hobbit movie. One of the good things about the Peter Jackson Tolkein films is that they are so incredibly slow paced you can disappear for 10 minutes and know you won't miss anything.
You know when those eagles that flew in and saved Frodo out of Mount Doom at the very end of part three (after watching nearly nine hours of film in total). Why weren't those very same eagles given the ring in the first place- they could have flown across and dropped it in. No fuss. Would have saved us all three, tortuous films. Could have been cut down to a five minute short.
Because the whole point of the entire balls aching trilogy is that the ring corrupts its possessor and that if you give it to someone all dominant and powerful in the first place like an eagle they become satanically evil Dark Lords, which is a bad thing.
I can't be arsed to explain why giving it to a hobbit is relatively OK. RTFB.
If I were to tell you there was a phone poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If I were to tell you there was an online poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If your answers are about 5% apart, join the club. And averaging the two probably isn't that sound - it's likely that one method is wrong. Which?
I think it'll all come out in the wash you know. This ain't 1992 when all the polls failed to capture the Tory vote for the whole length of the campaign.
I know I will be even less popular than normal by saying this but I am sick of being lectured to by some whining Aussie.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
Is she not a Kiwi? Listen Nige, I know we are kind of dreading what is going to happen in the summer, but don;t conflate things with that poor Kiwi (or Aussie).
At least I had a good nap watching Trotters and Cookie push around against an attack that would not have even made the Oxford University team.
Someone below got it right, we need a proper quickie who bowls at 90 mph and one aggressive opener. Not sure who that would be, maybe Hales?
I think we need a leg spinner, Borthwick or Rashid, Root and Ballance can bowl off spin. Would love to see a left arm bowler such as Underwood but not many like him these days!
Good call on Hales. I'd have blooded Lyth in this series, he'd have had 5 tests to get his feet under the table before the Ashes. England are always conservative in their selection: will the Aussies fear Trott? No way.
Carberry was discarded too quickly, he did better than most in Australia.
I once spoke to Nasser at a dinner when KP was starting out and he told us what a ghastly character he is, but KP may have had a point about the cliques in the team. Both Carberry and Compton before him were chucked out with no real justification.
If I were to tell you there was a phone poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If I were to tell you there was an online poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If your answers are about 5% apart, join the club. And averaging the two probably isn't that sound - it's likely that one method is wrong. Which?
I think it'll all come out in the wash you know. This ain't 1992 when all the polls failed to capture the Tory vote for the whole length of the campaign.
Well we won't know that until after the election either, by definition!
Comments
NEW POLL:
South Thanet. Fieldwork April 22
Farage/UKIP 39%
Mackinlay/CON 30%
Scobie/LAB 26%
Driver/GRE 2%
Timpson/LD 2%
Others 1%
And now goodnight.
Oh and one last thing, many here blame yougov for sticking with their panel instead of randomly selected interviews, but the panel idea is there to exclude the possibility of outliers due to varying patches of party responders from sample to sample, thus avoiding large changes from poll to poll.
You won't see pogostick behaviour from yougov that you see from other pollsters.
Goodnight.
'OK everybody gets it wrong sometime'!!
Breaking Bad in 5 mins thankfully.
Also keep an eye on Belfast North, it's got rapidly changing demographics and is going green fast. SF put 7% on it's vote there last time to come within 2,000 votes, it's got a very solid candidate and with the SDLP being squeezed could go green and take SF to 6 seats, DUP to 8 and lower the threshold for a majority by 2.
Lot of variables
- Lab underperforms UNS in E+W
- "Swingback" or similar means that Con-Lab swing will be lower by the day
- Some methodology flaw means that poll of polls is overrepresenting Con-Lab swing
Is it just that people are assuming one of those is true? Or is there some other reason I'm not understanding? And is there any evidence for the first one?
First she says that the government must command a majority (so there can't be a minority Government?)
Then she says a minority Government can't be voted out...
It's Florence to you and me.
If the Greens really want to progress then where is Caroline Lucas? I don't agree with a single thing she stands for but at least she is good at stating her case.
This is worse than the last poll from the constituency from Survation, so why is it hailed as good for Ukip??
It seems to me people are assuming the latter two of your three possibilities at the least.
Con 283
Lab 270
SNP 48
LD 24
At least some of these polls have serious errors, so quoting the results to 1 decimal place is just false precision.
I have never believed the argument that lessons were learnt in 1992, and now polling is as accurate as quantum field theory.
Lessons probably were learnt in 1992, but not the right lessons for 2015.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/39bad3a8-e8ed-11e4-87fe-00144feab7de.html
Along comes Sturgeon and pompous Salmond and save his bacon with their astonishing hubris.
Con Most Seats now 1.36/1.37 - all time record - before 10pm tonight the shortest this had EVER been (ie since market opened in 2010) was 1.4.
Listen Nige, I know we are kind of dreading what is going to happen in the summer, but don;t conflate things with that poor Kiwi (or Aussie).
At least I had a good nap watching Trotters and Cookie push around against an attack that would not have even made the Oxford University team.
I have changed my party affinity to see I can budge the damn thing!
First question asked if I had a postal vote and whether I had used it. Before going on to quite a few questions on preferred coalitions etc.
Rob Ford (Britain) @robfordmancs
Better poll for Farage in Thanet from Survation, after poor one from ComRes 2 wks back. Would be useful to have another from @LordAshcroft
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft
@robfordmancs I hear you Rob....
Tories making unfunded spending promises on the NHS
Labour selling themselves as fiscally responsible
I could just about swallow
Now we have the SNP guy on QT seriously trying to convince us they are interested in policies for the whole of the UK!
I think we need a leg spinner, Borthwick or Rashid, Root and Ballance can bowl off spin. Would love to see a left arm bowler such as Underwood but not many like him these days!
I would personally like to see either Woolfe or Nuttall as next leader.
Quite spoilt when you consider Labour and the Tories don't have a great many decent candidates to chose from.
Con 35.78
Lab 32.42
Lead 3.36
Fully aware it's false precision but does paint slightly different picture.
http://www.secularism.org.uk/news/2015/04/nus-votes-to-work-with-group-accused-of-supporting-islamic-extremism
Won't happen
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/4709938/South-Thanet-Constituency---Party-Winner.html
That would be quite funny.
According to my colleagues Tebow fever is gripping the city (or something)
Mr Hague will on Friday unveil the Conservative Party’s English manifesto alongside David Cameron to ensure that Scottish MPs can no longer have a deciding say on rates of taxation for English families.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/william-hague/11559458/William-Hague-pledges-income-tax-rate-just-for-England-to-take-power-away-from-Scots.html
Explains much. Seriously broken, I'm thinking.
Anecdote alert: Just had dinner with a leftie ex-teacher.
He's voting Tory.
This election is just getting too weird......
If I were to tell you there was an online poll out tomorrow, what would you guess the lead to be and for whom?
If your answers are about 5% apart, join the club. And averaging the two probably isn't that sound - it's likely that one method is wrong. Which?
By the way, are you an LCFC supporter?
I recognise your accent!
I can't be arsed to explain why giving it to a hobbit is relatively OK. RTFB.
So we have 72% Most seats, 43% Dave PM
That gap is too big !
I once spoke to Nasser at a dinner when KP was starting out and he told us what a ghastly character he is, but KP may have had a point about the cliques in the team. Both Carberry and Compton before him were chucked out with no real justification.
Abbott: [laughs]
Neil: "And the alliance has begun!"