Well well well. Things at least moving in the direction of becoming interesting. The coming days will be very crucial in setting or maintaining a narrative.
But for old times' sake, here's an over the top comment.
Silly Tories, you've peaked too soon - you were supposed to time the surge in the days immediately prior to election day. Now Labour have a chance to react.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·2h2 hours ago That's six polls in almost as many days showing UKIP on the up. How's the bubble's peak UKIP theory coming along?
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·2h2 hours ago That's six polls in almost as many days showing UKIP on the up. How's the bubble's peak UKIP theory coming along?
Driving around Bedford, I have seen one UKIP and one Green poster, three for the Lib Dems (who normally win the poster war in town) and at least 60 each for Con and Labour. No idea what that means. By contrast didn't see a single poster in East London today
Hmmm. Maybe the Miliband in Sturgeon's pocket message is cutting through.
Or of course we could just be seeing some outliers.
Would be typical of this election for the outliers to just happen to occur across the pollsters around the same time.
Still much for the pessimistic Tory or Tory predictor. 4% isn't enough, not necessarily. But if it becomes the new normal, they will have something to encourage them besides blind hope at least.
Labour? No reason to panic yet, but they'll readying something big just in case its needed, I'm sure.
How reliable are phone polls? In the last few years, as more of our landline phone calls to home are from scams many people are cynical about any form of unsolicited phone call. Do they tell us how many calls they have to make to get 1000 responses?
LDs defiantly refuse to consistently maintain double digits. Oh, they'll do fine, I'm sure.
The 2nd tweet at the top of the page referring to 25% of Con/Lab voters would consider to vote for the Libdems is what they must hope will save them in the seats that they are defending. Otherwise sub 20 MPs beckons
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·2h2 hours ago That's six polls in almost as many days showing UKIP on the up. How's the bubble's peak UKIP theory coming along?
Clearly a man of taste as he apparently reads PB.com. :-)
Summat is up with this OTHER figure. SNP+PC surely cannot be above 5 per cent. The BNP won 2 per cent, but anecdotally those people are now subsumed in Ukip or not voting. So the dribs and drabs might be on 2 per cent at a stretch.
Based on our poll, these are the seat projections by Prof Colin Rallings CON 287 LAB 274 SNP 54 LD 10 PC 3 UKIP 2
Tonights COMRES EICIPM???
Surely that cannot be right on those %
Labour would pick up seats in England on these numbers, so I don't see why not. SNP will back Ed regardless of the circumstances.
LD wipe out in Scotland takes away coalition MPs and add left bloc ones. Tory gains from LDs in England don't. 10 Lds seems very much on the low side though.
Ed governs on this kind of result. The arithmetic is solid
Driving around Bedford, I have seen one UKIP and one Green poster, three for the Lib Dems (who normally win the poster war in town) and at least 60 each for Con and Labour. No idea what that means. By contrast didn't see a single poster in East London today
It is hard to believe that there is a GE only 2 weeks away. I was in a marginal today and only saw a few signs and that was about it. No other activity.
I was in another key marginal over the weekend and I did actually see the candidates on the street, but it was a pretty piss poor show. Labour had like 3 people with a crappy table and a few leaflets and had gone within an hour, Lib Dem guy looked like he was going to cry with only one helper, the Green had 4-5 people jumping in the way of shoppers.
Just got back from a trip to Edinburgh today, saw Ruth Davidson being interviewed outside the Art Gallery with a group of eager young Tories handing out leaflets and what looked like an active SNP office in West Edinburgh near to the LD campaign HQ. No sign of Labour in Scotland, but I did see some Labour posters from the train window in Carlisle and Crewe, make of that what you will.
Polling wise still a mixed picture, but if the Tories are on 36% with Comres then the squeeze in the UKIP vote with that poll down to 10% must be a factor, how big the kipper vote is will probably determine who gets most seats
If these polls are a result of the millipede dancing on Sturgeons strings, then the thing to remember is the full effect wont have worked its way through to the electorate. Yet....bigger bounce to come !
How reliable are phone polls? In the last few years, as more of our landline phone calls to home are from scams many people are cynical about any form of unsolicited phone call. Do they tell us how many calls they have to make to get 1000 responses?
Key question on which much of the polling industry is biting its nails. Yes how reliable are phone polls in a world of caller ID etc, but how self selecting and over engaged ( compared to the overall electorate) is the Internet? Careers are waiting on this I suspect.
Summat is up with this OTHER figure. SNP+PC surely cannot be above 5 per cent. The BNP won 2 per cent, but anecdotally those people are now subsumed in Ukip or not voting. So the dribs and drabs might be on 2 per cent at a stretch.
SNP have been 5% on their own sometimes. Add a bit of rounding and it will all reconcile just fine.
Was chatting to somone in town yday saying just no clue whats gonna happen. Then I told them about 1992 which they didn't know. Ive got a hunch this is gonna be 1992 all over again. Its got that feel to it.
Re Euro bank notes- Greece still has the plates for the old €20 note, but the new one is coming later this year, so I they'd struggle to make too much mischief with it.
That being said - and a question for all our pb lawyers and experts - if Country A started printing the banknotes of Country B, would that be considered an act of war?
(As an aside: I suspect that Greece will not (a) start printing Euro notes, and (b) not issue passports to all and sundry. The country is so dependent on tourism revenues from the EU, that even outside the Eurozone it needs to be "friends" with Europe. 18% of Greek GDP comes from tourism. That's a third of its private sector GDP. Without tourism Greece would be in the stone ages, and there aren't that many alternative sources of tourists outside the EU. Russian tourists can only pick up a small amount of the slack.)
usual pattern is he tweets something optimistic for tories 9 onwards then poll released at 10 if there's something such to tweet. If not poll comes out at 10.30. Maybe today it'll be different? ?...
No because the same stale panel churn out the same result +- MOE. Best forget YG. I;m convinced onliners are a waste of everyones time.
Isn't Yougov a 2 day poll, today's poll is 50% yesterday's pollsters, 50% today's. Tomorrow is 50% today's, 50% tomorrow's. This removes rapid fluctuations but delays potential changes...
With all these lists of MPs I'd have thought it would be good to categorise the Parties.
How about Tory, anti-Tory and non-aligned?
Currently are we looking at about 285 Tory, 317 anti-Tory, 40 non-aligned. That's a big gap still for Cameron to close. I'm not convinced you can just add DUP and Lib Dem and if it makes 324 he'll be fine. The Lb Dems might be forced into an anti-Tory alliance in that scenario.
"It is largely as I predicted, except the Silly Party won".
I can see a fair few pundits saying basically the same thing in a few weeks.
Rest assured all, though I might alter my prediction if we see a 4 or more point gap confirmed by more polling in the coming weeks, I for one will not pretend I had predicted that new prediction all along.
No because the same stale panel churn out the same result +- MOE. Best forget YG. I;m convinced onliners are a waste of everyones time.
Isn't Yougov a 2 day poll, today's poll is 50% yesterday's pollsters, 50% today's. Tomorrow is 50% today's, 50% tomorrow's. This removes rapid fluctuations but delays potential changes...
Thought they abandoned that rolling malarkey last year?
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes · 58 secs58 seconds ago London, England Hearing Survation poll in Thanet South giving 9% lead for @Nigel_Farage . Checking.
FB The LDs have made clear they will back the largest party, if they back a Labour government which came second on seats and votes they will lose the few remaining seats they will hold in England and Wales to go along with the loss of almost all their Scottish seats in May
Comments
YG will show nothing of course. It never does.
One ComRes with Con +4 is not decisive.
But for old times' sake, here's an over the top comment.
Silly Tories, you've peaked too soon - you were supposed to time the surge in the days immediately prior to election day. Now Labour have a chance to react.
Or of course we could just be seeing some outliers.
Tonights COMRES EICIPM???
Surely that cannot be right on those %
Consistent picture of a 4% Tory lead, mind.
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·2h2 hours ago
That's six polls in almost as many days showing UKIP on the up. How's the bubble's peak UKIP theory coming along?
Thats not reading runes. Thats spotting poll trends?
Best to take it all with a stiff upper lip.
It was "Jonah" Brown wot dun it.
If everyone else is right, it's looking good
Still much for the pessimistic Tory or Tory predictor. 4% isn't enough, not necessarily. But if it becomes the new normal, they will have something to encourage them besides blind hope at least.
Labour? No reason to panic yet, but they'll readying something big just in case its needed, I'm sure.
SPUD after 10
Con -8
Lab -9
Ukip +6
LD +2
Green -2
LD wipe out in Scotland takes away coalition MPs and add left bloc ones. Tory gains from LDs in England don't. 10 Lds seems very much on the low side though.
Ed governs on this kind of result. The arithmetic is solid
I was in another key marginal over the weekend and I did actually see the candidates on the street, but it was a pretty piss poor show. Labour had like 3 people with a crappy table and a few leaflets and had gone within an hour, Lib Dem guy looked like he was going to cry with only one helper, the Green had 4-5 people jumping in the way of shoppers.
Con 304, Lab 266, LD 9, UKIP 0, Green 1, SNP 49, PC 3, NI 18
Con-LD 313. Lab-SNP-PC Green 319.
It really doesn't change much.
Ed needs to get on the airwaves and say strongly he won`t cut a deal with SNP.
Polling wise still a mixed picture, but if the Tories are on 36% with Comres then the squeeze in the UKIP vote with that poll down to 10% must be a factor, how big the kipper vote is will probably determine who gets most seats
today 10%
7 April 12%
29 March 12%
22 March 10%
23 Feb 13%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
Re Euro bank notes- Greece still has the plates for the old €20 note, but the new one is coming later this year, so I they'd struggle to make too much mischief with it.
That being said - and a question for all our pb lawyers and experts - if Country A started printing the banknotes of Country B, would that be considered an act of war?
(As an aside: I suspect that Greece will not (a) start printing Euro notes, and (b) not issue passports to all and sundry. The country is so dependent on tourism revenues from the EU, that even outside the Eurozone it needs to be "friends" with Europe. 18% of Greek GDP comes from tourism. That's a third of its private sector GDP. Without tourism Greece would be in the stone ages, and there aren't that many alternative sources of tourists outside the EU. Russian tourists can only pick up a small amount of the slack.)
How about Tory, anti-Tory and non-aligned?
Currently are we looking at about 285 Tory, 317 anti-Tory, 40 non-aligned. That's a big gap still for Cameron to close. I'm not convinced you can just add DUP and Lib Dem and if it makes 324 he'll be fine. The Lb Dems might be forced into an anti-Tory alliance in that scenario.
I updated SPUD incorrectly
After the COMRES poll, the 10th of the week from the 7th different pollster
Con -8
Lab -9
UKIP +7
LD NC
Green -2
If the conservatives can improve on yesterday's YOUGOV they will have achieved their best Daily SPUD ever by standing still
"It is largely as I predicted, except the Silly Party won".
I can see a fair few pundits saying basically the same thing in a few weeks.
Rest assured all, though I might alter my prediction if we see a 4 or more point gap confirmed by more polling in the coming weeks, I for one will not pretend I had predicted that new prediction all along.
SNP +12???
I've reported and corrected
Any improvements you think of let me know, am open minded
Hearing Survation poll in Thanet South giving 9% lead for @Nigel_Farage . Checking.