I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
so on top of Jim Murphy and Owen Jones, we have the ultimate proof of labour's struggle
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Labour spinners appear to be in meltdown...
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
Labour just don't like the fact that Scotland is well on its way to becoming independent and Labour played a big part in it by giving them devolution in the first place.
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
Are you sure that you've taken your meds properly this afternoon. You better check with the psychiatric nurse on the ward.
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
That would be the sensible thing to do. They are making a big deal of adding heart to the Tories and brains to Labour and all that hokum, but also of avoiding extremes. Even if their numbers would make the difference - hardly assured - they can claim neither of the big two is willing to moderate their extreme positions enough to justify backing them up, and then sit back and hope things return to 'normal'. As the Tories have no chance without the LDs, that would mean some sort of Lab government (hard to see Lab/SNP permitting a Con minority), and the potential return of some lefty voters.
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
so on top of Jim Murphy and Owen Jones, we have the ultimate proof of labour's struggle
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Labour spinners appear to be in meltdown...
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
What on earth is he on about? In what universe is wheeling out former leaders squalid? One of the benefits is surely that they don't have to toe the line if they don't want to, so they must generally believe in it.
I'm sure he said the same thing when Blair was deployed earlier in the campaign by Labour?
That or he's being a.... oh of course,Bad Al is someone i view below Piers Morgan.
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
How much did we have on that LD UKIP seats bet?
I don't know but care to explain? I'm up for a bet. What's the offering?
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
How much did we have on that LD UKIP seats bet?
So Labour only gain around 20 from Tories? That's a swing of around 2 or 2.5%
I think we will see some areas with a net Lab to Con swing and others e.g. east London with a net Con to Lab swing. In some places UKIP will cause a net Con to Lab swing and in others the LibDem slump will lead to a net Lab to Con swing, with disproportionate numbers of Con gains. The seats will matter more than the UNS and it's likely to be a non-standard complex picture.
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
so on top of Jim Murphy and Owen Jones, we have the ultimate proof of labour's struggle
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Labour spinners appear to be in meltdown...
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
What on earth is he on about? In what universe is wheeling out former leaders squalid? One of the benefits is surely that they don't have to toe the line if they don't want to, so they must generally believe in it.
Didn't Labour wheel out Blair in Sedgefield a week or so ago? Perhaps he's confused.
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
Are you sure that you've taken your meds properly this afternoon. You better check with the psychiatric nurse on the ward.
He sounds a bit like Stuart Truth of the 2012 White House campaign.
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
so on top of Jim Murphy and Owen Jones, we have the ultimate proof of labour's struggle
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Labour spinners appear to be in meltdown...
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
What on earth is he on about? In what universe is wheeling out former leaders squalid? One of the benefits is surely that they don't have to toe the line if they don't want to, so they must generally believe in it.
They think they are losing.... he can't stop the bile.
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·46 secs47 seconds ago . @David_Cameron puts a few more years in Downing St ahead of hundreds of years of Union between England and Scotland. Divide and misrule
US polls always show this sort of thing at this sort of stage in the cycle - indeed the Presidential polls are little more than name recognition polls at the moment. [The same is true within the GOP nomination polls]. A clear front runner in one party with strong name recognition leads by large margins in the polls until the challenger's name recognition goes up (a gradual process) and is nominated (usually quite a step). Given that Hillary has sky high name recognition, it is obvious why she holds a lead in the Presidential polling. It will not hold, certainly not by those margins. I envisage a close election, unless the GOP pick an absolute dud.
Hillary's initial campaign week was somewhat bizarre - the Scooby Bus, with its odd 2 day trek to Iowa with no publicity except for buying a salad bowl at a Chiptole Grill, staged meetings with 'grass roots' Iowans, who were in fact Democratic activists, total exclusion of the press and avoidance of any questions.
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
Or.... "for the good of the country", "to avoid chaos", "to deal with meltdown in the markets", "because this is how it is done on continent" etc etc, they will attempt to do a deal.
The level of urgency to make a deal is not as great this time as the national situation is not as bad (or doesn't appear as bad), so there is not as much need to do so for the good of the country or avoid chaos etc. They also don't face the pressure of making a deal work or be mocked for turning down a coalition after desperately hoping for such an opportunity for so many years - they've made it work for 5 years, so now they can say they would be willing in the right circumstances, but that doesn't mean they have to accept a bad deal for them and the country.
Ultimately, they don't want to be seen as the natural allies of only the Tories, which will happen if they work with them again. But jumping straight in with Labour might look bad (though is marginally more likely I suspect), and if Labour get in regardless there is more to be gained electorally in staying in opposition. The party also needs time to regroup from what will be a probable 50% drop in MP numbers and gutted membership, possibly more, and will need to figure out what sort of approach to take once they kick out Clegg and his cohorts from leadership positions.
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
so on top of Jim Murphy and Owen Jones, we have the ultimate proof of labour's struggle
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Labour spinners appear to be in meltdown...
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
Labour just don't like the fact that Scotland is well on its way to becoming independent and Labour played a big part in it by giving them devolution in the first place.
Not according to Lord Forsyth who said the Tory support of the first SNP government was responsible. Why should he know ? He is a Tory after all.
. @David_Cameron puts a few more years in Downing St ahead of hundreds of years of Union between England and Scotland. Divide and misrule
Christ coming from this man,laughable.
He is being taken to pieces by the Twitterati:
Alasdair Haylock @Ali_Haylock 9m9 minutes ago @campbellclaret@David_Cameron You are aware that it will be your beloved Labour who will be doing a deal with the SNP and not the Tories. 0 retweets 0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More
Socrates @the_socrates 9m9 minutes ago @campbellclaret@David_Cameron You were the muppets that started the devolution train that got the SNP their power. 1 retweet 1 favorite Reply Retweet1 Favorite1 More
Mark Roper @bathguy 9m9 minutes ago @campbellclaret@David_Cameron yep - the Tories are the reason that Scottish Labour are in meltdown 0 retweets 1 favorite Reply Retweet Favorite1 More
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
That I think is sound advice. Labour may pick up a handful in London at best, probably 4 or 5. They will be scrapping elsewhere in England for as much as they can.
The Liberal Democrat wipeout makes this talk of 'plurality' seem terribly simplistic. As I mentioned yesterday, the EW Con to Lab UNS is an incredibly blunt, and simpletons, tool. It reminds me of the old Peter Snow Swingometer days and of little real value. Regional variations are going to be complex but vital. To remind you:
LibDem wipeout in South West to Conservatives Labour swings in West Midlands and urban north UKIP in traditional Labour, East Anglia and south-east London Labour SNP Scotland
These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
So Lab lose 35 in Scotland, gain 4 in London, scrapping for about 10 in the rest of the country, leaving them on about 235 seats. LDs wiped out leaving them on - what - 15 seats. SNP 50, others 25, giving the Conservatives 325 seats. I dare say that will be a popular line of argument in this parish!
I was about to post up a prediction but that is remarkably close to what I suspect may happen.
This time in 2010 The Tories had a 7 point clear consistent lead, labour were sub 30. The E+W swing to labour is going to hold up IMO
258 -45 (worst case, UNS known to be a problem when allocating seat winners in scotland, wont be that much)
+ 10 london and 10 lib dem + midlands + east (the great grimsbys and thurrocks) 20
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
That would be the sensible thing to do. They are making a big deal of adding heart to the Tories and brains to Labour and all that hokum, but also of avoiding extremes. Even if their numbers would make the difference - hardly assured - they can claim neither of the big two is willing to moderate their extreme positions enough to justify backing them up, and then sit back and hope things return to 'normal'. As the Tories have no chance without the LDs, that would mean some sort of Lab government (hard to see Lab/SNP permitting a Con minority), and the potential return of some lefty voters.
If they are not going to ever be in government nor opposition, then what is their point? Why bother tl recover? They are a nothing party. Or rather an everything party - everything to all men.
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
Are you sure that you've taken your meds properly this afternoon. You better check with the psychiatric nurse on the ward.
He sounds a bit like Stuart Truth of the 2012 White House campaign.
I don't know who that is but we will see come May 7. Labour were on 258 and will lose over 40 in Scotland. I don't think 240ish is particularly unlikely from there. If you think, as do I, that the LibDems are in big trouble then the rest follows:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2
US polls always show this sort of thing at this sort of stage in the cycle - indeed the Presidential polls are little more than name recognition polls at the moment. [The same is true within the GOP nomination polls]. A clear front runner in one party with strong name recognition leads by large margins in the polls until the challenger's name recognition goes up (a gradual process) and is nominated (usually quite a step). Given that Hillary has sky high name recognition, it is obvious why she holds a lead in the Presidential polling. It will not hold, certainly not by those margins. I envisage a close election, unless the GOP pick an absolute dud.
Hillary's initial campaign week was somewhat bizarre - the Scooby Bus, with its odd 2 day trek to Iowa with no publicity except for buying a salad bowl at a Chiptole Grill, staged meetings with 'grass roots' Iowans, who were in fact Democratic activists, total exclusion of the press and avoidance of any questions.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
T These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
So Lab lose 35 in Scotland, gain 4 in London, scrapping for about 10 in the rest of the country, leaving them on about 235 seats. LDs wiped out leaving them on - what - 15 seats. SNP 50, others 25, giving the Conservatives 325 seats. I dare say that will be a popular line of argument in this parish!
I was about to post up a prediction but that is remarkably close to what I suspect may happen.
This time in 2010 The Tories had a 7 point clear consistent lead,
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
How much did we have on that LD UKIP seats bet?
So Labour only gain around 20 from Tories? That's a swing of around 2 or 2.5%
I think we will see some areas with a net Lab to Con swing and others e.g. east London with a net Con to Lab swing. In some places UKIP will cause a net Con to Lab swing and in others the LibDem slump will lead to a net Lab to Con swing, with disproportionate numbers of Con gains. The seats will matter more than the UNS and it's likely to be a non-standard complex picture.
As they say "brave, minister, brave". Are you betting along these lines? I'll hold my hand up and say I'm not.
Anyone interested in why Cameron's policy of selling housing association property is such a shocking thing to do watch Panorama
Really?
What's shocking is the apparent lack of activity by Local Authorities who should be using existing powers to force errant landlords to make repairs, and make homes fit for habitation.
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
How much did we have on that LD UKIP seats bet?
So Labour only gain around 20 from Tories? That's a swing of around 2 or 2.5%
I think we will see some areas with a net Lab to Con swing and others e.g. east London with a net Con to Lab swing. In some places UKIP will cause a net Con to Lab swing and in others the LibDem slump will lead to a net Lab to Con swing, with disproportionate numbers of Con gains. The seats will matter more than the UNS and it's likely to be a non-standard complex picture.
Are you betting along these lines?
Yes. I'm not alone though: much of the money in the markets favours my view.
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
Or.... "for the good of the country", "to avoid chaos", "to deal with meltdown in the markets", "because this is how it is done on continent" etc etc, they will attempt to do a deal.
Well, if they do, I seriously believe in 2020, the Greens will win 5/10 seats. The red Liberals will forever leave the party even tactically and the LDs will become the English FDP.
Think about it. They are being decimated in the South West and Scotland - hitherto their bases ! The few Focus based seats in urban areas are always vulnerable and , in themselves, beneficiaries of protest votes.
It does not look very good, I'm afraid. If you sup with the devil...............
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
If Labour lose this election, I don't know who will be seen as the greater villain to their own parties. Ed...well we all know about his family....and then if it transpires destroying any hope of defeating the Tories to boot, or Clegg, literally undermining all that work, all those years and hours that has been spent building a grassroots party. Destroying it in one term.
The LD's have to hope that Clegg is defeated to safeguard any revival. And Labour have to hope that Miliband wins. The worst scenario for both is that Clegg scrapes through and Miliband hangs on as leader of the opposition.
'Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid'
Labour in the SNP's pocket is obviously gaining traction,Alastair close to wetting himself ?
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
Are you sure that you've taken your meds properly this afternoon. You better check with the psychiatric nurse on the ward.
Clearly this new poster is sitting at a desk in CCHQ regurgitating his posting instructions from Grant Shapps . FWIW , I have had info from someone local ( not a Lib Dem ) that Conservatives have almost given up in Carshalton/Wallington and are putting all their efforts into Sutton/Cheam .
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
Or.... "for the good of the country", "to avoid chaos", "to deal with meltdown in the markets", "because this is how it is done on continent" etc etc, they will attempt to do a deal.
The level of urgency to make a deal is not as great this time as the national situation is not as bad (or doesn't appear as bad), so there is not as much need to do so for the good of the country or avoid chaos etc. They also don't face the pressure of making a deal work or be mocked for turning down a coalition after desperately hoping for such an opportunity for so many years - they've made it work for 5 years, so now they can say they would be willing in the right circumstances, but that doesn't mean they have to accept a bad deal for them and the country.
Ultimately, they don't want to be seen as the natural allies of only the Tories, which will happen if they work with them again. But jumping straight in with Labour might look bad (though is marginally more likely I suspect), and if Labour get in regardless there is more to be gained electorally in staying in opposition. The party also needs time to regroup from what will be a probable 50% drop in MP numbers and gutted membership, possibly more, and will need to figure out what sort of approach to take once they kick out Clegg and his cohorts from leadership positions.
If ordinary members get any say in it, I would oppose both coalition or C and S.
A period of opposition would help rebuild the party, while the other parties tear themselves to bits. The future is bright, the future is orange. The May 7th election is going to be horrible though.
'Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid'
Labour in the SNP's pocket is obviously gaining traction,Alastair close to wetting himself ?
Labour doth protest too much. They are clearly very rattled.
Anyone interested in why Cameron's policy of selling housing association property is such a shocking thing to do watch Panorama
Really?
What's shocking is the apparent lack of activity by Local Authorities who should be using existing powers to force errant landlords to make repairs, and make homes fit for habitation.
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
How much did we have on that LD UKIP seats bet?
So Labour only gain around 20 from Tories? That's a swing of around 2 or 2.5%
I think we will see some areas with a net Lab to Con swing and others e.g. east London with a net Con to Lab swing. In some places UKIP will cause a net Con to Lab swing and in others the LibDem slump will lead to a net Lab to Con swing, with disproportionate numbers of Con gains. The seats will matter more than the UNS and it's likely to be a non-standard complex picture.
Are you betting along these lines?
Yes. I'm not alone though: much of the money in the markets favours my view.
'Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid'
Labour in the SNP's pocket is obviously gaining traction,Alastair close to wetting himself ?
It is rather coming across as being rattled isn't it? I've heard there is more confidence in Conservative quarters. Perhaps this is being borne out with this sort of tweeting by Campbell.
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
so on top of Jim Murphy and Owen Jones, we have the ultimate proof of labour's struggle
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Labour spinners appear to be in meltdown...
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
Labour just don't like the fact that Scotland is well on its way to becoming independent and Labour played a big part in it by giving them devolution in the first place.
The lying barsteward Campbell is never happier than when he is lying. Trying to big up the Labour vote by saying Cameron is 'cheerleading' for the Nats is risible. Note the 'awful' dig he gets in. Groundless pap from a truly awful lying man. John Major is twice the man Campbell will never be.
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
How much did we have on that LD UKIP seats bet?
So Labour only gain around 20 from Tories? That's a swing of around 2 or 2.5%
I think we will see some areas with a net Lab to Con swing and others e.g. east London with a net Con to Lab swing. In some places UKIP will cause a net Con to Lab swing and in others the LibDem slump will lead to a net Lab to Con swing, with disproportionate numbers of Con gains. The seats will matter more than the UNS and it's likely to be a non-standard complex picture.
Are you betting along these lines?
Yes. I'm not alone though: much of the money in the markets favours my view.
How large is your overdraft ?
I don't need to touch the overdraft. Fancy a bet then?
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
Or.... "for the good of the country", "to avoid chaos", "to deal with meltdown in the markets", "because this is how it is done on continent" etc etc, they will attempt to do a deal.
The level of urgency to make a deal is not as great this time as the national situation is not as bad (or doesn't appear as bad), so there is not as much need to do so for the good of the country or avoid chaos etc. They also don't face the pressure of making a deal work or be mocked for turning down a coalition after desperately hoping for such an opportunity for so many years - they've made it work for 5 years, so now they can say they would be willing in the right circumstances, but that doesn't mean they have to accept a bad deal for them and the country.
Ultimately, they don't want to be seen as the natural allies of only the Tories, which will happen if they work with them again. But jumping straight in with Labour might look bad (though is marginally more likely I suspect), and if Labour get in regardless there is more to be gained electorally in staying in opposition. The party also needs time to regroup from what will be a probable 50% drop in MP numbers and gutted membership, possibly more, and will need to figure out what sort of approach to take once they kick out Clegg and his cohorts from leadership positions.
I agree with most of that. Where it gets interesting, I think, is how do they view the SNP. Given that the SNP is about ravage a good chunk of their MPs, would the Lib Dems be keen to do a deal with them as well as Labour?
Labour's 1990s assessment that devolution would kill independence "stone dead" is probably going to go down in history as one of the biggest misjudgements of all time.
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
Are you sure that you've taken your meds properly this afternoon. You better check with the psychiatric nurse on the ward.
FWIW , I have had info from someone local ( not a Lib Dem ) that Conservatives have almost given up in Carshalton/Wallington and are putting all their efforts into Sutton/Cheam .
As sure a sign that they haven't then as you'll get. Whenever you hear 'xx have given up in yy' it means the people saying it are in trouble. It's the counter intuition of politics.
If the SNP do send 50 MPs to Westminster, it'll be interesting to see what the quality's like. After all, we've been continually told that the reason they do so well at Holyrood is because that's where they send their A team, whereas Labour concentrates on Westminster.
'Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid'
Labour in the SNP's pocket is obviously gaining traction,Alastair close to wetting himself ?
Labour doth protest too much. They are clearly very rattled.
When the SNP are ahead in Coatbridge, Kirkcaldy, Dumfries, East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh South - well that is a worry for Scottish Labour for sure.
Just Glasgow NE left - and we saw the swing post Sturgasm in Glasgow SW.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
T These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
So Lab lose 35 in Scotland, gain 4 in London, scrapping for about 10 in the rest of the country, leaving them on about 235 seats. LDs wiped out leaving them on - what - 15 seats. SNP 50, others 25, giving the Conservatives 325 seats. I dare say that will be a popular line of argument in this parish!
I was about to post up a prediction but that is remarkably close to what I suspect may happen.
This time in 2010 The Tories had a 7 point clear consistent lead,
Opposition
But now incumbency, 1st term, no major developments, coalition. The incumbency advantage equation is surely squeezed to within decimals.
I don't buy it. I also don't buy the Greens at 5%. They got 0.9 % last time with a good leader. The current leader is a PR disaster waiting to happen, she nearly blew up at EM for god sakes during the debate. More filtration to LD and LAB there
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
so on top of Jim Murphy and Owen Jones, we have the ultimate proof of labour's struggle
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Labour spinners appear to be in meltdown...
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
Labour just don't like the fact that Scotland is well on its way to becoming independent and Labour played a big part in it by giving them devolution in the first place.
The lying barsteward Campbell is never happier than when he is lying. Trying to big up the Labour vote by saying Cameron is 'cheerleading' for the Nats is risible. Note the 'awful' dig he gets in. Groundless pap from a truly awful lying man. John Major is twice the man Campbell will never be.
Why did John Major tuck his shirt in his underpants ?
If the SNP do send 50 MPs to Westminster, it'll be interesting to see what the quality's like. After all, we've been continually told that the reason they do so well at Holyrood is because that's where they send their A team, whereas Labour concentrates on Westminster.
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
so on top of Jim Murphy and Owen Jones, we have the ultimate proof of labour's struggle
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Labour spinners appear to be in meltdown...
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
Labour just don't like the fact that Scotland is well on its way to becoming independent and Labour played a big part in it by giving them devolution in the first place.
John Major (my 2nd least favourite Conservative Leader) warned about the threat to the UK of devolution from New Labour.... What a joke Labour and the Lib Dems are in acting all innocent about the disastrous events they have let loose.
It's taken Labour about three weeks to work out what the Conservatives were up to by focusing on the SNP. They've not exactly been quick-witted.
Yah think? Could it be that Labour have been running a dogs breakfast of a campaign all along. Milliblands latest bizarre tactic is to appeal to that long extinct species the one nation Tory and thousands more Labour voters in Scotland drift to the SNP. He is playing a stormer.
Milliblands first and possibly most fatal mistake was not agreeing to have a Referendum on EU, probably because he thought he might lose it even with the full force of the CBI and BBC behind him. There is now a reason for UKIP voters to vote tactically for the Tories to keep Labour and Lib Dems out. If they don't then they don't get their Referendum.
The level of urgency to make a deal is not as great this time as the national situation is not as bad (or doesn't appear as bad), so there is not as much need to do so for the good of the country or avoid chaos etc. They also don't face the pressure of making a deal work or be mocked for turning down a coalition after desperately hoping for such an opportunity for so many years - they've made it work for 5 years, so now they can say they would be willing in the right circumstances, but that doesn't mean they have to accept a bad deal for them and the country.
Ultimately, they don't want to be seen as the natural allies of only the Tories, which will happen if they work with them again. But jumping straight in with Labour might look bad (though is marginally more likely I suspect), and if Labour get in regardless there is more to be gained electorally in staying in opposition. The party also needs time to regroup from what will be a probable 50% drop in MP numbers and gutted membership, possibly more, and will need to figure out what sort of approach to take once they kick out Clegg and his cohorts from leadership positions.
Thank you for a reasonably sensible comment bereft of the usual anti-LD vitriol and nonsense which pervades this site from a few of the regulars.
The point of Coalition 1.0 as expressed as far back as the Rose Garden bromance was this was a deal under exceptional circumstances for one term only. Coalition 2.0 may be what Nick Clegg wants but my suspicion is he knows he won't get it past the Party. With 20 MPs he has no chance, with 30 MPs he has a slight chance, with 40 MPs he would have every chance.
Parties do recover from heavy defeats and can do so quickly if key lessons are learned and actions taken. The Tories were well beaten in 1945 and 1966 but bounced back in both 1950 and 1970. The Liberals were routed in 1970 but by February 1974 were close to tripling their vote share. External circumstances may a big part too and "events, dear boy, events" often take us down paths not foreseeable.
I suspect the Party would prefer not to get involved with the formation of the next Government - I fear the election outcome may not allow us that luxury.
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
Are you sure that you've taken your meds properly this afternoon. You better check with the psychiatric nurse on the ward.
Clearly this new poster is sitting at a desk in CCHQ regurgitating his posting instructions from Grant Shapps . FWIW , I have had info from someone local ( not a Lib Dem ) that Conservatives have almost given up in Carshalton/Wallington and are putting all their efforts into Sutton/Cheam .
Your tipster is correct. The LDs should also concentrate in K&S. Getting a bit hectic here.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
T These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
So Lab lose 35 in Scotland, gain 4 in London, scrapping for about 10 in the rest of the country, leaving them on about 235 seats. LDs wiped out leaving them on - what - 15 seats. SNP 50, others 25, giving the Conservatives 325 seats. I dare say that will be a popular line of argument in this parish!
I was about to post up a prediction but that is remarkably close to what I suspect may happen.
This time in 2010 The Tories had a 7 point clear consistent lead,
Opposition
I don't buy it. I also don't buy the Greens at 5%. They got 0.9 % last time with a good leader.
Agree about Natalie Bennett but they did poll 7% at last year's Euro elections so I think somewhere between your 0.9% (lol!!!) and 7% is likely. Perhaps a shade under 5% but I think they may well pull in a lot of disaffected Labour and especially LibDems.
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
That would be the sensible thing to do. They are making a big deal of adding heart to the Tories and brains to Labour and all that hokum, but also of avoiding extremes. Even if their numbers would make the difference - hardly assured - they can claim neither of the big two is willing to moderate their extreme positions enough to justify backing them up, and then sit back and hope things return to 'normal'. As the Tories have no chance without the LDs, that would mean some sort of Lab government (hard to see Lab/SNP permitting a Con minority), and the potential return of some lefty voters.
If they are not going to ever be in government nor opposition, then what is their point? Why bother tl recover? They are a nothing party. Or rather an everything party - everything to all men.
If the LDs do drop well below 20 MPs they will find that it could take 20 year to get back to where they were in 2005. PS I forecast mid twenties.
Labour's 1990s assessment that devolution would kill independence "stone dead" is probably going to go down in history as one of the biggest misjudgements of all time.
I think today feels like the first time in the campaign that the Tories have seized some momentum and finally put Labour on the ropes. The Tories want as many people as possible discussing the risk of the SNP influencing Labour, and it is happening everywhere. Labour really has no effective way to counter the attack, because ruling out any kind of deal with the SNP makes it close to impossible for Ed to get into number 10. I think right now Labour is just praying that the issue goes away sooner than later, so they can get back to the NHS. But I think as long as SNP continue polling strongly the issue will remain at the forefront of the campaign.
If the SNP do send 50 MPs to Westminster, it'll be interesting to see what the quality's like. After all, we've been continually told that the reason they do so well at Holyrood is because that's where they send their A team, whereas Labour concentrates on Westminster.
Never mind the quality feel the width. Lobby fodder banned from criticising the leadership. Oh hang on I'm supposed to be cheerleading for the nats. I wonder if that tweet from Campbell was symptomatic of his head exploding? I would not have liked to have been stood next to him if it did. A lot of festering stuff inside there.
Giles Watling retweeted Greg Hands Looking forward to seeing you tomorrow Greg! As a true local man I can show you around #clacton
Giles Watling added,
Greg Hands@GregHands Clacton tomorrow. Interesting to see @douglascarswell, with his home in Fulham (SW6), tweeting that his campaign is "Clacton v SW1 machine".
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
Are you sure that you've taken your meds properly this afternoon. You better check with the psychiatric nurse on the ward.
He sounds a bit like Stuart Truth of the 2012 White House campaign.
I don't know who that is but we will see come May 7. Labour were on 258 and will lose over 40 in Scotland. I don't think 240ish is particularly unlikely from there. If you think, as do I, that the LibDems are in big trouble then the rest follows:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2
Guardian forecasting 4 UKIP seats (the usual crowd) - but a lot more Labour Gains - probably up to 250. The SNP gains look pretty much nailed on with firmness of votes - but Labour is quite soft (not as soft as UKIP though) and the SNP story is probably going to soften them up a bit more.
All of which suggests there could be a lot of horsetrading May 8th onwards.
For everyone's sake as a veteran of elections ignore it when you hear tip offs about parties pulling out of certain places. It's what all opponents do all the time. Unless you hear it from the party in question and even then from a reliable source it's the shenanigans of this stage in the process. It almost certainly means the contest is very close and could go one of two or three ways.
Labour's 1990s assessment that devolution would kill independence "stone dead" is probably going to go down in history as one of the biggest misjudgements of all time.
'No more boom and bust' ,put that with it.
Not strictly correct the exact quote from the Lard Robertson was "Devolution will kill nationalism stone dead"
The only way the SNP could stop a Labour government renewing Trident is if the Tories support them. Miliband should point this out again and again.
Labour will have close to 300 MPs. The SNP would have no more than 60. The only way they could obstruct Labour is if the Tories support them.
But (and it is a big but), if Trident goes through then the SNP can vote against Labour on lots of other laws where the Tories won't support Labour. Yes there's a nice word for that - welcome to 21st century politics.
I think today feels like the first time in the campaign that the Tories have seized some momentum and finally put Labour on the ropes. The Tories want as many people as possible discussing the risk of the SNP influencing Labour, and it is happening everywhere. Labour really has no effective way to counter the attack, because ruling out any kind of deal with the SNP makes it close to impossible for Ed to get into number 10. I think right now Labour is just praying that the issue goes away sooner than later, so they can get back to the NHS. But I think as long as SNP continue polling strongly the issue will remain at the forefront of the campaign.
The SNP had their manifesto launch today and put themselves at the top of the news. Not sure that the Tories can claim credit for that. Unless of course you know otherwise. ;-)
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
That would be the sensible thing to do. They are making a big deal of adding heart to the Tories and brains to Labour and all that hokum, but also of avoiding extremes. Even if their numbers would make the difference - hardly assured - they can claim neither of the big two is willing to moderate their extreme positions enough to justify backing them up, and then sit back and hope things return to 'normal'. As the Tories have no chance without the LDs, that would mean some sort of Lab government (hard to see Lab/SNP permitting a Con minority), and the potential return of some lefty voters.
If they are not going to ever be in government nor opposition, then what is their point? Why bother tl recover? They are a nothing party. Or rather an everything party - everything to all men.
Who said 'not going to ever be'? This first experience of coalition has taught some harsh lessons, regrouping to redetermine their purpose would be sensible, they are under obligation to conform to expectations of the big two (who in my short time of being interested in politics have always accused the LDs of having no point, which presumably stems from frustration at the LDs costing them majorities/larger majorities). They will I am sure want to do the coalition again in future.
Personally I'd prefer a LD-Con coalition mark 2 than any other outcome, but I cannot see how it would be in the LDs interest, and lacking any national interest argument to the same degree as last time, I should not expect them to want to do so.
Labour's 1990s assessment that devolution would kill independence "stone dead" is probably going to go down in history as one of the biggest misjudgements of all time.
The Tories do play the SNP tune better than the Edinburgh Philharmonic orchestra. The SNP stand for independence. Scotland has just voted against independence in a referendum. It wasn't even close.
At what point do the SNP convincing people to abandon Labour and the LD's in what are true heartlands for these parties become basic pests.
This sudden attack of isn't Nicola great from smurking middle England Tories is doing more to break up the country than any far fetched threat of LAB SNP co-operation.
No Nicola is not great, I suspect she is being humored by NO voting unionists who are simply fed up with the loudest person at the pub talking up what is essentially an isolationist republican agenda, the flames of which are fanned by continual reporting of absurd scenarios.
For everyone's sake as a veteran of elections ignore it when you hear tip offs about parties pulling out of certain places. It's what all opponents do all the time. Unless you hear it from the party in question and even then from a reliable source it's the shenanigans of this stage in the process. It almost certainly means the contest is very close and could go one of two or three ways.
I remember a plot-line from "The Brothers" (that dates me) where there was a three-way competition for a large contract and the family firm hired an ex employee from another company who passed on the information (free) when he joined that his old company had ceased planning to make a tender.
Labour's 1990s assessment that devolution would kill independence "stone dead" is probably going to go down in history as one of the biggest misjudgements of all time.
Agreed, was it George Robertson that originally said it?
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
Or.... "for the good of the country", "to avoid chaos", "to deal with meltdown in the markets", "because this is how it is done on continent" etc etc, they will attempt to do a deal.
The level of urgency to make a deal is not as great this time as the national situation is not as bad (or doesn't appear as bad), so there is not as much need to do so for the good of the country or avoid chaos etc. They also don't face the pressure of making a deal work or be mocked for turning down a coalition after desperately hoping for such an opportunity for so many years - they've made it work for 5 years, so now they can say they would be willing in the right circumstances, but that doesn't mean they have to accept a bad deal for them and the country.
Ultimately, they don't want to be seen as the natural allies of only the Tories, which will happen if they work with them again. But jumping straight in with Labour might look bad (though is marginally more likely I suspect), and if Labour get in regardless there is more to be gained electorally in staying in opposition. The party also needs time to regroup from what will be a probable 50% drop in MP numbers and gutted membership, possibly more, and will need to figure out what sort of approach to take once they kick out Clegg and his cohorts from leadership positions.
If ordinary members get any say in it, I would oppose both coalition or C and S.
A period of opposition would help rebuild the party, while the other parties tear themselves to bits. The future is bright, the future is orange. The May 7th election is going to be horrible though.
A 'period in opposition'?? Who are you trying to kid. 'a period'? The liberal democrats are neither fish nor fowl. They do not want to be in government. They want to exist permanently in opposition, but to who or what I have not got a clue.
Cameron has a 3 leaf clover in his pocket. It is beginning to look like the Scottish referendum was the best thing that could have happened to the Tories. The Union was saved and the Scottish Labour party destroyed all on one balmy autumn day.
Labour's 1990s assessment that devolution would kill independence "stone dead" is probably going to go down in history as one of the biggest misjudgements of all time.
'No more boom and bust' ,put that with it.
Not strictly correct the exact quote from the Lard Robertson was "Devolution will kill nationalism stone dead"
I wonder if he still wants Russia to join NATO
Or john reid on sending British troops to Afghanistan and said - "would be perfectly happy" to leave without firing a shot.
For everyone's sake as a veteran of elections ignore it when you hear tip offs about parties pulling out of certain places. It's what all opponents do all the time. Unless you hear it from the party in question and even then from a reliable source it's the shenanigans of this stage in the process. It almost certainly means the contest is very close and could go one of two or three ways.
I remember a plot-line from "The Brothers" (that dates me) where there was a three-way competition for a large contract and the family firm hired an ex employee from another company who passed on the information (free) when he joined that his old company had ceased planning to make a tender.
Guess who won the contract.
Haha
There you have it. This is a close contest and the next fortnight could get dirtier. There will be lots of this about. Ukip put about that the Conservatives had given up in Thanet South. It was as sure a sign as the first cuckoo that Nigel Farage himself was facing squeaky bum time.
Cameron has a 3 leaf clover in his pocket. It is beginning to look like the Scottish referendum was the best thing that could have happened to the Tories. The Union was saved and the Scottish Labour party destroyed all on one balmy autumn day.
Cameron has a 3 leaf clover in his pocket. It is beginning to look like the Scottish referendum was the best thing that could have happened to the Tories. The Union was saved and the Scottish Labour party destroyed all on one balmy autumn day.
The SNP had their manifesto launch today and put themselves at the top of the news. Not sure that the Tories can claim credit for that. Unless of course you know otherwise. ;-)
No doubt that has helped a bit. But there hasn't been a whole lot of coverage of the manifesto and its contents today. Most of the coverage and discussion has followed the Conservative attack lines of how dangerous the SNP would be for the rest of the UK. So the Tories can claim some credit for getting its message out today regardless of why the SNP are in the news.
It sounds like you are hoping/expecting the issue will now largely go away since the manifesto launch is done - and this is as big as it gets for SNP coverage throughout the rest of the UK. I think that's optimistic to say the least. But we'll see.
Lab at 5-1 10-14 seats could be headless betting but I think I've backed worse 5-1 shots.
Con at 6-4 2 or more seats looks very fair. As well as DCT and a decent shot at Berwicks, there are a couple of seats that could just drop into their lap on an LD or Lab to SNP swing, not least Dumf & Gall. I've historically pooh poohed any reference to Tory revival, but I don't think they need a revival to get lucky and pick up 2 seats.
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
Or.... "for the good of the country", "to avoid chaos", "to deal with meltdown in the markets", "because this is how it is done on continent" etc etc, they will attempt to do a deal.
The level of urgency to make a deal is not as great this time as the national situation is not as bad (or doesn't appear as bad), so there is not as much need to do so for the good of the country or avoid
Ultimately, they don't want to be seen as the natural allies of only the Tories, which will happen if they work with them again. But jumping straight in with Labour might look bad (though is marginally more likely I suspect), and if Labour get in regardless there is more to be gained electorally in staying in opposition. The party also needs time to regroup from what will be a probable 50% drop in MP numbers and gutted membership, possibly more, and will need to figure out what sort of approach to take once they kick out Clegg and his cohorts from leadership positions.
If ordinary members get any say in it, I would oppose both coalition or C and S.
A period of opposition would help rebuild the party, while the other parties tear themselves to bits. The future is bright, the future is orange. The May 7th election is going to be horrible though.
A 'period in opposition'?? Who are you trying to kid. 'a period'? The liberal democrats are neither fish nor fowl. They do not want to be in government. They want to exist permanently in opposition, but to who or what I have not got a clue.
The horse trading over C and S in the next Parliament, the whipping to produce even a small majority and the carping from the usual suspects is going to make the LD Con coalition look like the golden period of sane government that it was.
It will take a little while for the British public to adjust to the end of two party politics, but that is what it is going to have to do.
Cameron has a 3 leaf clover in his pocket. It is beginning to look like the Scottish referendum was the best thing that could have happened to the Tories. The Union was saved and the Scottish Labour party destroyed all on one balmy autumn day.
Any idea as mentioned earlier that us blues have given up on South Thanet is nonsense. Only this evening i was asked to join a team of telephone canvassers for the weekend and every inidication I have from the team in Thanet is that Farage is in real trouble.
Cameron has a 3 leaf clover in his pocket. It is beginning to look like the Scottish referendum was the best thing that could have happened to the Tories. The Union was saved and the Scottish Labour party destroyed all on one balmy autumn day.
Labour's 1990s assessment that devolution would kill independence "stone dead" is probably going to go down in history as one of the biggest misjudgements of all time.
The Tories do play the SNP tune better than the Edinburgh Philharmonic orchestra. The SNP stand for independence. Scotland has just voted against independence in a referendum. It wasn't even close.
At what point do the SNP convincing people to abandon Labour and the LD's in what are true heartlands for these parties become basic pests.
This sudden attack of isn't Nicola great from smurking middle England Tories is doing more to break up the country than any far fetched threat of LAB SNP co-operation.
No Nicola is not great, I suspect she is being humored by NO voting unionists who are simply fed up with the loudest person at the pub talking up what is essentially an isolationist republican agenda, the flames of which are fanned by continual reporting of absurd scenarios.
The Yorkshire Post front page also has the latest story from Rotherham council, a prime example of non-job bollox for a public sector fatcat:
' In a statement, following the story being reported by the Yorkshire Post, Rotherham Borough Council said: "Mark Fletcher-Brown was commissioned by the then interim chief executive in November 2014 to provide additional capacity and specialist communications support in a number of areas, at a time of significant change, challenge and increased workload for the council in dealing with the high profile coverage of failings identified in the Alexis Jay report.
"His work has included the provision of strategic and tactical advice to the interim chief executive and the strategic leadership team; the development of plans to improve communications with staff and public, and working with the in-house team on a review of the communications and marketing services provided by the council."
The council said he began working for it one-and-a-half days per week from November, and his contract was due to expire at the end of May.
Since January, he has been working two days each week with the council. His daily rate is £850 plus VAT plus travelling expenses. To date, the council has paid invoices totalling £9,613.40. '
Cameron has a 3 leaf clover in his pocket. It is beginning to look like the Scottish referendum was the best thing that could have happened to the Tories. The Union was saved and the Scottish Labour party destroyed all on one balmy autumn day.
No one will lament the end of SLAB.
Maybe SLAB might
In 5 years will anyone admit to having been in SLAB? I imagine it's already difficult to find all those former LD voters (those that are not trumpeting their change in allegiance that is).
Cycling through Lanarkshire tonight and saw virtually no evidence of election. This does not feel in any way like the referendum. The SNP still has some residual passion amongst its core voter base but that is not filtering through to the streets.
If the SNP do win most of the seats this is more an indication of the state of Scottish Labour and the collapse of the Lib Dems than any major statement by the Scots. Independence is now probably dead but in the end it was the price of oil that killed it.
Labour's 1990s assessment that devolution would kill independence "stone dead" is probably going to go down in history as one of the biggest misjudgements of all time.
The Tories do play the SNP tune better than the Edinburgh Philharmonic orchestra. The SNP stand for independence. Scotland has just voted against independence in a referendum. It wasn't even close.
At what point do the SNP convincing people to abandon Labour and the LD's in what are true heartlands for these parties become basic pests.
This sudden attack of isn't Nicola great from smurking middle England Tories is doing more to break up the country than any far fetched threat of LAB SNP co-operation.
No Nicola is not great, I suspect she is being humored by NO voting unionists who are simply fed up with the loudest person at the pub talking up what is essentially an isolationist republican agenda, the flames of which are fanned by continual reporting of absurd scenarios.
Could you re-post that, in readable English? I detect that you might have something interesting to say, but it is obscured by your inane prolixity.
Ta.
SeanT Perhaps we should institute a PB Russell Brand award for verbal diarrhea?
Labour's 1990s assessment that devolution would kill independence "stone dead" is probably going to go down in history as one of the biggest misjudgements of all time.
As classic a case of the Law of Unintended Consequences as you can get.
This is why I can never vote Labour, or any party that preaches 'Progressiveness' - you meddle with things at your peril.
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
That would be the sensible thing to do. They are making a big deal of adding heart to the Tories and brains to Labour and all that hokum, but also of avoiding extremes. Even if their numbers would make the difference - hardly assured - they can claim neither of the big two is willing to moderate their extreme positions enough to justify backing them up, and then sit back and hope things return to 'normal'. As the Tories have no chance without the LDs, that would mean some sort of Lab government (hard to see Lab/SNP permitting a Con minority), and the potential return of some lefty voters.
If they are not going to ever be in government nor opposition, then what is their point? Why bother tl recover? They are a nothing party. Or rather an everything party - everything to all men.
Who said 'not going to ever be'? This first experience of coalition has taught some harsh lessons, regrouping to redetermine their purpose would be sensible, they are under obligation to conform to expectations of the big two (who in my short time of being interested in politics have always accused the LDs of having no point, which presumably stems from frustration at the LDs costing them majorities/larger majorities). They will I am sure want to do the coalition again in future.
Personally I'd prefer a LD-Con coalition mark 2 than any other outcome, but I cannot see how it would be in the LDs interest, and lacking any national interest argument to the same degree as last time, I should not expect them to want to do so.
They have run away from government. They have rubbished their own govt all along - even though they got their referendum on PR. After all the pomposity over expenses their own leading lights made themselves laughing stocks. They will never form an opposition in their own right; they plainly cannot hack coalition. As for coalition mark 2 - that would depend on numbers. But the point of a political party is to be in government. If it is not in the LDs interest to be in government then why bother?
Labour's 1990s assessment that devolution would kill independence "stone dead" is probably going to go down in history as one of the biggest misjudgements of all time.
The Tories do play the SNP tune better than the Edinburgh Philharmonic orchestra. The SNP stand for independence. Scotland has just voted against independence in a referendum. It wasn't even close.
At what point do the SNP convincing people to abandon Labour and the LD's in what are true heartlands for these parties become basic pests.
This sudden attack of isn't Nicola great from smurking middle England Tories is doing more to break up the country than any far fetched threat of LAB SNP co-operation.
No Nicola is not great, I suspect she is being humored by NO voting unionists who are simply fed up with the loudest person at the pub talking up what is essentially an isolationist republican agenda, the flames of which are fanned by continual reporting of absurd scenarios.
The Yorkshire Post front page also has the latest story from Rotherham council, a prime example of non-job bollox for a public sector fatcat:
Since January, he has been working two days each week with the council. His daily rate is £850 plus VAT plus travelling expenses. To date, the council has paid invoices totalling £9,613.40. '
It's an old joke I suspect, but why are communication consultants often so bad at communicating why they deserve massive sums for what usually amounts to little work and very basic common sense advice?
I'm just watching the interview with Ed Miliband. The biggest mystery is who is Wot? Ed keeps on saying "Do you know Wot?" Many other politicians also have asked the same thing. Who is this Wot?
Labour's 1990s assessment that devolution would kill independence "stone dead" is probably going to go down in history as one of the biggest misjudgements of all time.
The Tories do play the SNP tune better than the Edinburgh Philharmonic orchestra. The SNP stand for independence. Scotland has just voted against independence in a referendum. It wasn't even close.
At what point do the SNP convincing people to abandon Labour and the LD's in what are true heartlands for these parties become basic pests.
This sudden attack of isn't Nicola great from smurking middle England Tories is doing more to break up the country than any far fetched threat of LAB SNP co-operation.
No Nicola is not great, I suspect she is being humored by NO voting unionists who are simply fed up with the loudest person at the pub talking up what is essentially an isolationist republican agenda, the flames of which are fanned by continual reporting of absurd scenarios.
"Not even close"? It only takes 1 in 19 to change their minds to reverse the indyref result.
The Yorkshire Post front page also has the latest story from Rotherham council, a prime example of non-job bollox for a public sector fatcat:
Since January, he has been working two days each week with the council. His daily rate is £850 plus VAT plus travelling expenses. To date, the council has paid invoices totalling £9,613.40. '
It's an old joke I suspect, but why are communication consultants often so bad at communicating why they deserve massive sums for what usually amounts to little work and very basic common sense advice?
But commonsense is not as common as it should be, and rarely comes from consultants.
Labour's 1990s assessment that devolution would kill independence "stone dead" is probably going to go down in history as one of the biggest misjudgements of all time.
The Tories do play the SNP tune better than the Edinburgh Philharmonic orchestra. The SNP stand for independence. Scotland has just voted against independence in a referendum. It wasn't even close.
At what point do the SNP convincing people to abandon Labour and the LD's in what are true heartlands for these parties become basic pests.
This sudden attack of isn't Nicola great from smurking middle England Tories is doing more to break up the country than any far fetched threat of LAB SNP co-operation.
No Nicola is not great, I suspect she is being humored by NO voting unionists who are simply fed up with the loudest person at the pub talking up what is essentially an isolationist republican agenda, the flames of which are fanned by continual reporting of absurd scenarios.
Could you re-post that, in readable English? I detect that you might have something interesting to say, but it is obscured by your inane prolixity.
Ta.
No it makes perfect sense, it is in the most readable English. If I shouted it at you in a Dundee accent you would probably have understood perfectly
We are in a period of weak governments that FPTP produces from time to time every 30-40 years, however those don't last more than 15 years, by 2025 the latest we will get another government with a strong majority.
I'm just watching the interview with Ed Miliband. The biggest mystery is who is Wot? Ed keeps on saying "Do you know Wot?" Many other politicians also have asked the same thing. Who is this Wot?
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
Are you sure that you've taken your meds properly this afternoon. You better check with the psychiatric nurse on the ward.
He sounds a bit like Stuart Truth of the 2012 White House campaign.
I don't know who that is but we will see come May 7. Labour were on 258 and will lose over 40 in Scotland. I don't think 240ish is particularly unlikely from there. If you think, as do I, that the LibDems are in big trouble then the rest follows:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2
Thats brave but not imposs. Tories'll be glad to have come through debate 2 unscathed. Fortnight to go & i haven't a scoobies right now. Your right about dirty tricks though.
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
That would be the voters.
If they are not going to ever be in government nor opposition, then what is their point? Why bother tl recover? They are a nothing party. Or rather an everything party - everything to all men.
m to want to do so.
They have run away from government. They have rubbished their own govt all along - even though they got their referendum on PR. After all the pomposity over expenses their own leading lights made themselves laughing stocks. They will never form an opposition in their own right; they plainly cannot hack coalition. As for coalition mark 2 - that would depend on numbers. But the point of a political party is to be in government. If it is not in the LDs interest to be in government then why bother?
Well for one they didn't get a referendum on PR (semi-pr perhaps? Not sure the distinction on that one from proper pr), but never mind. But you seem to be suggesting that if the LDs have the numbers to make a government possible then of course they have to do so. But why? Depending on the party they would have to ally with and what it is proposing, and how much the LDs could moderate it (depending on their own numbers), perhaps the ends would not justify the means in that instance. People are seriously suggesting it would not be worth Labour being in government while in hock to the SNP, and Lab would at least be the bigger partner in that relationship. Junior coalition partners need to pick and choose.
After an evening when I am feeling much more kindly disposed to the Tories after than Ed M interview (and I leaned more to the Tories anyway), you're pushing me back from them with that kind of bizarre expectant attitude toward other parties - fortunately my vote doesn't make a difference in my area, so no worries.
I caught that the BBC were happily reporting Labour claims of yet another "Tory secret plan" today.
Once upon a time, a political party talking about another secret plans, meant they had been leaked papers showing that somebody wasn't been straight, now it just seems enough to go on the radio and say "party x have a secret plan...insert scare story...." and it will get reported with basically no criticism / fact checking.
Today's was that the Tories have a secret plan to cut 2000 nurses. Made up out of thin air.
Comments
That or he's being a.... oh of course,Bad Al is someone i view below Piers Morgan.
live by the sword, die by the sword.
Ultimately, they don't want to be seen as the natural allies of only the Tories, which will happen if they work with them again. But jumping straight in with Labour might look bad (though is marginally more likely I suspect), and if Labour get in regardless there is more to be gained electorally in staying in opposition. The party also needs time to regroup from what will be a probable 50% drop in MP numbers and gutted membership, possibly more, and will need to figure out what sort of approach to take once they kick out Clegg and his cohorts from leadership positions.
Alasdair Haylock @Ali_Haylock 9m9 minutes ago
@campbellclaret @David_Cameron You are aware that it will be your beloved Labour who will be doing a deal with the SNP and not the Tories.
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Socrates @the_socrates 9m9 minutes ago
@campbellclaret @David_Cameron You were the muppets that started the devolution train that got the SNP their power.
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Cause of Accident @causeofaccident 9m9 minutes ago
@campbellclaret What an absolutely colossal twunt he is. Here's our ode to him and his awful cronies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5_2ovEDmzY …
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Mark Roper @bathguy 9m9 minutes ago
@campbellclaret @David_Cameron yep - the Tories are the reason that Scottish Labour are in meltdown
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Joan Maclean @maclean_joan 9m9 minutes ago
@campbellclaret @David_Cameron yet you all did his dirty work for him last year.
The E+W swing to labour is going to hold up IMO
258
-45 (worst case, UNS known to be a problem when allocating seat winners in scotland, wont be that much)
+ 10 london and 10 lib dem + midlands + east (the great grimsbys and thurrocks) 20
30 North and West mids, south east and west
= EICIPM
Conservative 310 to 340
Labour 240-ish
SNP 40+
LibDem 12
Ukip 1 to 2
12 hours
http://www.ijreview.com/2015/04/296973-everyday-iowan-close-got-hillary-clinton-today/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=organic&utm_content=ijreview&utm_campaign=Politics
FA to do with Housing Associations.
How do I know?
He's not pluggd one of his effing books in any of his amusing tweets..
Think about it. They are being decimated in the South West and Scotland - hitherto their bases ! The few Focus based seats in urban areas are always vulnerable and , in themselves, beneficiaries of protest votes.
It does not look very good, I'm afraid. If you sup with the devil...............
The LD's have to hope that Clegg is defeated to safeguard any revival. And Labour have to hope that Miliband wins. The worst scenario for both is that Clegg scrapes through and Miliband hangs on as leader of the opposition.
@David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid'
Labour in the SNP's pocket is obviously gaining traction,Alastair close to wetting himself ?
FWIW , I have had info from someone local ( not a Lib Dem ) that Conservatives have almost given up in Carshalton/Wallington and are putting all their efforts into Sutton/Cheam .
A period of opposition would help rebuild the party, while the other parties tear themselves to bits. The future is bright, the future is orange. The May 7th election is going to be horrible though.
Or that's just him.
John Major is twice the man Campbell will never be.
Just Glasgow NE left - and we saw the swing post Sturgasm in Glasgow SW.
I don't buy it. I also don't buy the Greens at 5%. They got 0.9 % last time with a good leader. The current leader is a PR disaster waiting to happen, she nearly blew up at EM for god sakes during the debate. More filtration to LD and LAB there
Labi Siffre @labisiffre 9 hrs9 hours ago
@NicolaSturgeon as a representative UK party leader appears head & shoulders above both @David_Cameron & @Ed_Miliband
#ukPolitics @theSNP
Milliblands first and possibly most fatal mistake was not agreeing to have a Referendum on EU, probably because he thought he might lose it even with the full force of the CBI and BBC behind him. There is now a reason for UKIP voters to vote tactically for the Tories to keep Labour and Lib Dems out. If they don't then they don't get their Referendum.
The point of Coalition 1.0 as expressed as far back as the Rose Garden bromance was this was a deal under exceptional circumstances for one term only. Coalition 2.0 may be what Nick Clegg wants but my suspicion is he knows he won't get it past the Party. With 20 MPs he has no chance, with 30 MPs he has a slight chance, with 40 MPs he would have every chance.
Parties do recover from heavy defeats and can do so quickly if key lessons are learned and actions taken. The Tories were well beaten in 1945 and 1966 but bounced back in both 1950 and 1970. The Liberals were routed in 1970 but by February 1974 were close to tripling their vote share. External circumstances may a big part too and "events, dear boy, events" often take us down paths not foreseeable.
I suspect the Party would prefer not to get involved with the formation of the next Government - I fear the election outcome may not allow us that luxury.
'No more boom and bust' ,put that with it.
Oh hang on I'm supposed to be cheerleading for the nats.
I wonder if that tweet from Campbell was symptomatic of his head exploding? I would not have liked to have been stood next to him if it did. A lot of festering stuff inside there.
Giles Watling retweeted Greg Hands
Looking forward to seeing you tomorrow Greg! As a true local man I can show you around
Giles Watling added,
Greg Hands@GregHands Clacton tomorrow. Interesting to see @douglascarswell, with his home in Fulham (SW6), tweeting that his campaign is "Clacton v SW1 machine".
All of which suggests there could be a lot of horsetrading May 8th onwards.
I wonder if he still wants Russia to join NATO
Latest Times / YouGov poll on Scotland. Here. 10pm.
Personally I'd prefer a LD-Con coalition mark 2 than any other outcome, but I cannot see how it would be in the LDs interest, and lacking any national interest argument to the same degree as last time, I should not expect them to want to do so.
At what point do the SNP convincing people to abandon Labour and the LD's in what are true heartlands for these parties become basic pests.
This sudden attack of isn't Nicola great from smurking middle England Tories is doing more to break up the country than any far fetched threat of LAB SNP co-operation.
No Nicola is not great, I suspect she is being humored by NO voting unionists who are simply fed up with the loudest person at the pub talking up what is essentially an isolationist republican agenda, the flames of which are fanned by continual reporting of absurd scenarios.
Guess who won the contract.
Who are you trying to kid.
'a period'?
The liberal democrats are neither fish nor fowl. They do not want to be in government. They want to exist permanently in opposition, but to who or what I have not got a clue.
Tory +4
Tory +2
Lab +2
Surely Yougov can't scupper the blue cumulative lead.....
That worked out well.
There you have it. This is a close contest and the next fortnight could get dirtier. There will be lots of this about. Ukip put about that the Conservatives had given up in Thanet South. It was as sure a sign as the first cuckoo that Nigel Farage himself was facing squeaky bum time.
Forecast: worse
It sounds like you are hoping/expecting the issue will now largely go away since the manifesto launch is done - and this is as big as it gets for SNP coverage throughout the rest of the UK. I think that's optimistic to say the least. But we'll see.
Phil Cowley, author of the Nuffield Election Studies, takes an in-depth look at how activists are campaigning in Scotland.
http://may2015.com/features/the-snp-has-an-army-of-activists-but-is-it-winning-the-ground-war-in-scotland/
Lab at 5-1 10-14 seats could be headless betting but I think I've backed worse 5-1 shots.
Con at 6-4 2 or more seats looks very fair. As well as DCT and a decent shot at Berwicks, there are a couple of seats that could just drop into their lap on an LD or Lab to SNP swing, not least Dumf & Gall. I've historically pooh poohed any reference to Tory revival, but I don't think they need a revival to get lucky and pick up 2 seats.
It will take a little while for the British public to adjust to the end of two party politics, but that is what it is going to have to do.
' In a statement, following the story being reported by the Yorkshire Post, Rotherham Borough Council said: "Mark Fletcher-Brown was commissioned by the then interim chief executive in November 2014 to provide additional capacity and specialist communications support in a number of areas, at a time of significant change, challenge and increased workload for the council in dealing with the high profile coverage of failings identified in the Alexis Jay report.
"His work has included the provision of strategic and tactical advice to the interim chief executive and the strategic leadership team; the development of plans to improve communications with staff and public, and working with the in-house team on a review of the communications and marketing services provided by the council."
The council said he began working for it one-and-a-half days per week from November, and his contract was due to expire at the end of May.
Since January, he has been working two days each week with the council.
His daily rate is £850 plus VAT plus travelling expenses.
To date, the council has paid invoices totalling £9,613.40. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-32381838
If the SNP do win most of the seats this is more an indication of the state of Scottish Labour and the collapse of the Lib Dems than any major statement by the Scots. Independence is now probably dead but in the end it was the price of oil that killed it.
This is why I can never vote Labour, or any party that preaches 'Progressiveness' - you meddle with things at your peril.
As for coalition mark 2 - that would depend on numbers. But the point of a political party is to be in government. If it is not in the LDs interest to be in government then why bother?
Weak governments 2010-20??
Strong governments 1979-2010
Weak governments 1964-1979
Strong governments 1931-1964
Weak governments 1918-1931
Strong governments 1895-1918
Weak governments 1885-1895
We are in a period of weak governments that FPTP produces from time to time every 30-40 years, however those don't last more than 15 years, by 2025 the latest we will get another government with a strong majority.
After an evening when I am feeling much more kindly disposed to the Tories after than Ed M interview (and I leaned more to the Tories anyway), you're pushing me back from them with that kind of bizarre expectant attitude toward other parties - fortunately my vote doesn't make a difference in my area, so no worries.
Once upon a time, a political party talking about another secret plans, meant they had been leaked papers showing that somebody wasn't been straight, now it just seems enough to go on the radio and say "party x have a secret plan...insert scare story...." and it will get reported with basically no criticism / fact checking.
Today's was that the Tories have a secret plan to cut 2000 nurses. Made up out of thin air.