Pleasantly surprised by that as the SNP have so far been invisible in what's my mum's constituency. 4 SLab leaflets/posters and one of those nutjob Unionist ones, plus at least 2 SLab canvasses; I even got to shake Lazarowizc's hand last week (I actually think he's one of the more decent comrades).
Last week after the BBC debate, it was said on here that Cameron and Clegg had secured a great deal by getting half hour interviews with Emily Maitlis immediately afterwards.. this turned out to be nonsense as the interviews didn't happen, and obv the people that made the claims are pretending they didn't..
But by that token, if the QT style thing does turn into a debate between Clegg, Cameron and Miliband, would it be seen on here as a major coup for Farage to have the "Audience with..." immediately afterwards, as he actually is in real life rather than a figment of a party supporters imagination?
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Even if Labour loses 40 seats in Scotland, a big IF, Labour only needs to win 20 in E&W in terms of plurality with Tories. In fact, the SNP knocking the Lib DEms is helping Labour against the coalition.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Even if Labour loses 40 seats in Scotland, a big IF, Labour only needs to win 20 in E&W in terms of plurality with Tories. In fact, the SNP knocking the Lib DEms is helping Labour against the coalition.
Who is favourite to be PM Now ?
Of course it's a big IF, most pollsters have them on for losing 50
Please, please take a positon on Betfair for the Libs in Gordon. Then I shall very gladly take your money. On Saturday I was part of my first ever political canvass since I was a student. I spent the time with some nice young students from Aberdeen University. We were canvassing Inverurie with a survey card which allowed people to tick the appropriate box and their second preferences.
On our canvass Salmond is running at 55 per cent in that town which is the heart of the Gordon constituency. The rest were pretty close together with the Tories marginally ahead of the Liberals. Most Liberals indeed have the Tory as second preference. But most Tories would give NO second preference. Just about all Labour actually have Salmond as their second preference!
In any case at that sort of level it won't matter even if the rest can combine. That is why John N you should go ahead, put your money down and make my day.
Well, I'll be jiggered .... SNP canvass returns show Alex Salmond at almost North Korean levels of support ....
SNP GAIN Pyongyang North and the Borders .... who'd have thought it ?!?
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Battersea and Illford N haven't been polled, but that is on the same order of majority as Finchley or slightly less, if the swings are the same as all the others they become red.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
All showing large Labour swings
You may very well be right but who is this Ashcroft? I don't recall them polling in 2010, 2005, 2001, 1997 or indeed any previous General Election. Are they the rebirth of BPIX who also shone briefly before vanishing into vapour. A google shows one 'Lord Ashcroft' who polled at Heywood and Middleton but it obviously could not be the same as he was wrong by a whopping 17%. A constituency pollster one would indeed be cautious of following were it him.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Battersea and Illford N haven't been polled, but that is on the same order of majority as Finchley or slightly less, if the swings are the same as all the others they become red.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Even if Labour loses 40 seats in Scotland, a big IF, Labour only needs to win 20 in E&W in terms of plurality with Tories. In fact, the SNP knocking the Lib DEms is helping Labour against the coalition.
Who is favourite to be PM Now ?
Of course it's a big IF, most pollsters have them on for losing 50
Without my sense of humour,I would have thought you were serious :-)
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Even if Labour loses 40 seats in Scotland, a big IF, Labour only needs to win 20 in E&W in terms of plurality with Tories. In fact, the SNP knocking the Lib DEms is helping Labour against the coalition.
Who is favourite to be PM Now ?
Lol. That would be Lab on 238 seats and the Tories on 286 seats in that scenario.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Even if Labour loses 40 seats in Scotland, a big IF, Labour only needs to win 20 in E&W in terms of plurality with Tories. In fact, the SNP knocking the Lib DEms is helping Labour against the coalition.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
All showing large Labour swings
You may very well be right but who is this Ashcroft? I don't recall them polling in 2010, 2005, 2001, 1997 or indeed any previous General Election. Are they the rebirth of BPIX who also shone briefly before vanishing into vapour. A google shows one 'Lord Ashcroft' who polled at Heywood and Middleton but it obviously could not be the same as he was wrong by a whopping 17%. A constituency pollster one would indeed be cautious of following were it him.
Can please someone explain to him who "is this Ashcroft" ?
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
That I think is sound advice. Labour may pick up a handful in London at best, probably 4 or 5. They will be scrapping elsewhere in England for as much as they can.
The Liberal Democrat wipeout makes this talk of 'plurality' seem terribly simplistic. As I mentioned yesterday, the EW Con to Lab UNS is an incredibly blunt, and simpletons, tool. It reminds me of the old Peter Snow Swingometer days and of little real value. Regional variations are going to be complex but vital. To remind you:
LibDem wipeout in South West to Conservatives Labour swings in West Midlands and urban north UKIP in traditional Labour, East Anglia and south-east London Labour SNP Scotland
These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
I think Lord Forsyth sensibly makes the point that Labour are being devoured by the nationalist dragon they created by saying the Tories had no mandate in Scotland. Longer term though the two parties will have to cooperate at Holyrood elections at least to deny the SNP a majority.
Also, saw Caroline Flint at Marks and Spencers at Paddington Station today, obviously buying provisions before heading back to the campaign
As much as I think Labour are going to win, you'd think I'd remember Ed's interview was tonight., but no. I thought Clegg and Cameron both came across pretty well, I should imagine Ed will do the same. But I shall see.
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
Same vibe I'm getting. Labour have to deal with this. But how?
If I were Miliband I'd say that "I would never do a deal with the SNP under any circumstances, nor rely on them for any votes to sustain my government."
In other words, I'd lie.
The narrative today has completely changed the GE and there is absolutely nothing Ed Miliband or labour can say or do (other than saying I agree with Nicola). The irony is that the wall to wall media coverage has created this story and all David Cameron and the conservatives needs t do is to pick up the narrative and make huge political gains out of it in RUK
I think you might be completely misunderstanding how the idea of a Labour/SNP Coalition will play with left of centre voters. It might be a vote loser in Torbay, as Marquee Mark has reported, but I wouldn't draw many general conclusions based on that. In a nutshell it doesn't really matter what Tory inclined voters think of the idea.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
All showing large Labour swings
You may very well be right but who is this Ashcroft? I don't recall them polling in 2010, 2005, 2001, 1997 or indeed any previous General Election. Are they the rebirth of BPIX who also shone briefly before vanishing into vapour. A google shows one 'Lord Ashcroft' who polled at Heywood and Middleton but it obviously could not be the same as he was wrong by a whopping 17%. A constituency pollster one would indeed be cautious of following were it him.
Welcome to pb.com. But your tips aren't going to be followed for very long if you don't even know who Lord Ashcroft is!
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
...
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Even if Labour loses 40 seats in Scotland, a big IF, Labour only needs to win 20 in E&W in terms of plurality with Tories. In fact, the SNP knocking the Lib DEms is helping Labour against the coalition.
Who is favourite to be PM Now ?
258 - 40 +20 is 238 304 -20 is 284
I'm guessing that the favourite to be PM is the leader of the party with most seats. Your sums do not work out. I think the election has barely started so there is still time for everybody, not least Labour in Scotland.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Even if Labour loses 40 seats in Scotland, a big IF, Labour only needs to win 20 in E&W in terms of plurality with Tories. In fact, the SNP knocking the Lib DEms is helping Labour against the coalition.
Who is favourite to be PM Now ?
surbiton • Posts: 4,477
April 19 • edited April 19
This is what I think will happen:
Con 295 Lab 265 SNP 50 LD 18 PC 3 UKIP 1
Cameron according to you.
No. LD will join no coalition after getting hammered thanks to going to bed with the Tories. Cameron can suck his thumb with 295 seats.
Well, after today's polls, file me under "none the wiser". I am pleased to see a small uptick in LD fortunes - the sunlit uplands of double figures heaves into view it would seem.
The ICM Conservative figure was the outlier most of us expected - the Ashcroft Labour number looks on the low side but I wouldn't argue with those who claim a tiny Conservative lead at this stage.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
.
seriously rattled.
in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Even if Labour loses 40 seats in Scotland, a big IF, Labour only needs to win 20 in E&W in terms of plurality with Tories. In fact, the SNP knocking the Lib DEms is helping Labour against the coalition.
Who is favourite to be PM Now ?
surbiton • Posts: 4,477
April 19 • edited April 19
This is what I think will happen:
Con 295 Lab 265 SNP 50 LD 18 PC 3 UKIP 1
Cameron according to you.
No. LD will join no coalition after getting hammered thanks to going to bed with the Tories. Cameron can suck his thumb with 295 seats.
You think a party that has sold its soul once would not do so again and again for the chance of bottoms in high office? You really don't know the Liberal Democrats then, do you?
Fortunately I doubt they will have the chance as they are going to face a slaughter so the mathematics are unlikely to be in their favour.
I think I have finally got to the bottom of the SNP strategy.
Every man and his dog knows they are not interested in influencing UK politics as a whole and that they are essentially a single purpose outfit - that purpose being an independent Scotland.
They will never achieve a YES vote with a Labour government in Westminster - I am pretty sure they wouldn't even push for another Indy Ref in such a scenario.
By love bombing Labour in so much as supporting most of their core economic manifesto promises, but actually in some cases going a bit further to the left, they themselves are trying to spook the English electorate into returning a Tory government that they cynically claim to despise.
Only then with almost complete representation in Westminster for Scotland and a totally dominant Holyrood in 2016, will they be able to execute their plan.
If the short game fails and they do end up supporting Labour, they will operate a black ops campaign against them, supporting them publicly but undermining them quietly outside of the public eye. Salmond, love him or hate him, is a very canny operator and you can bet that he will expose any weakness in Miliband during the course of the parliamentary term.
The last thing the SNP want is, despite a likely S&C arrangement, is for that government to be successful and get itself elected again in 2020.
All of which is potentially damaging for the long terms needs of the country and probably catastrophic for the long term future of the Labour party.
I doubt if any PBer is mug enough to be able to get on with Sportingbet, but the 5/6 over 2.5 UKIP seats is such a bad price it might be a palpable error
Channel 4 news is reporting that some of the big sources of 'refugees' crossing the Mediterranean are Eritrea, Gambia and Senegal. There are not even wars in these places, showing that it is more about economic migration than persecution.
I think the chances of a Labour majority are pretty much zero. They're going to lose at least 20 seats in Scotland and they're not going to make more than 60 gains elsewhere. Therefore their maximum number of seats is around 300.
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
Same vibe I'm getting. Labour have to deal with this. But how?
If I were Miliband I'd say that "I would never do a deal with the SNP under any circumstances, nor rely on them for any votes to sustain my government."
In other words, I'd lie.
The narrative today has completely changed the GE and there is absolutely nothing Ed Miliband or labour can say or do (other than saying I agree with Nicola). The irony is that the wall to wall media coverage has created this story and all David Cameron and the conservatives needs t do is to pick up the narrative and make huge political gains out of it in RUK
I think you might be completely misunderstanding how the idea of a Labour/SNP Coalition will play with left of centre voters. It might be a vote loser in Torbay, as Marquee Mark has reported, but I wouldn't draw many general conclusions based on that. In a nutshell it doesn't really matter what Tory inclined voters think of the idea.
It may well build up votes in left leanings areas but most of these are already held by labour but the issue in this election is the large number of marginal seats in the Midlands and the North West which by any measure are not hard left
Ed surprisingly petulant at the start of his interview - It seems he reacts better to the Paxman aggressively rude interrupting style, than Davis' gentler prodding interrupting style, whereas Cameron was the opposite.
He also seems to be suggesting that quoting facts and figures doesn't reflect reality. I'll bet he changes his tune on that when it comes time to defend his record in government.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
...
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Even if Labour loses 40 seats in Scotland, a big IF, Labour only needs to win 20 in E&W in terms of plurality with Tories. In fact, the SNP knocking the Lib DEms is helping Labour against the coalition.
Who is favourite to be PM Now ?
258 - 40 +20 is 238 304 -20 is 284
I'm guessing that the favourite to be PM is the leader of the party with most seats. Your sums do not work out. I think the election has barely started so there is still time for everybody, not least Labour in Scotland.
Exactly. The difference remains the same. 46. Why are you so dim ?
I did not say Labour will win 20 seats from the Tories. Labour only needs to win 20 to make up for the 40 being lost, a big IF.
In reality, Labour will lose about 35 in Scotland [ still a bad loss ] but win 40 - 45 in England and Wales.
I think the chances of a Labour majority are pretty much zero. They're going to lose at least 20 seats in Scotland and they're not going to make more than 60 gains elsewhere. Therefore their maximum number of seats is around 300.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
All showing large Labour swings
You may very well be right but who is this Ashcroft? I don't recall them polling in 2010, 2005, 2001, 1997 or indeed any previous General Election. Are they the rebirth of BPIX who also shone briefly before vanishing into vapour. A google shows one 'Lord Ashcroft' who polled at Heywood and Middleton but it obviously could not be the same as he was wrong by a whopping 17%. A constituency pollster one would indeed be cautious of following were it him.
Welcome to pb.com. But your tips aren't going to be followed for very long if you don't even know who Lord Ashcroft is!
Ah, and there was me thinking that perhaps, just perhaps, I was being sarcastic.
Which is worse: egotistical presenters/interviewers not allowing the politician answer a question properly, or politicians demanding to be allowed to answer the question, but not doing so even when they have the opportunity, and insisting they have answered it?
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
That I think is sound advice. Labour may pick up a handful in London at best, probably 4 or 5. They will be scrapping elsewhere in England for as much as they can.
The Liberal Democrat wipeout makes this talk of 'plurality' seem terribly simplistic. As I mentioned yesterday, the EW Con to Lab UNS is an incredibly blunt, and simpletons, tool. It reminds me of the old Peter Snow Swingometer days and of little real value. Regional variations are going to be complex but vital. To remind you:
LibDem wipeout in South West to Conservatives Labour swings in West Midlands and urban north UKIP in traditional Labour, East Anglia and south-east London Labour SNP Scotland
These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
So Lab lose 35 in Scotland, gain 4 in London, scrapping for about 10 in the rest of the country, leaving them on about 235 seats. LDs wiped out leaving them on - what - 15 seats. SNP 50, others 25, giving the Conservatives 325 seats. I dare say that will be a popular line of argument in this parish!
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Even if Labour loses 40 seats in Scotland, a big IF, Labour only needs to win 20 in E&W in terms of plurality with Tories. In fact, the SNP knocking the Lib DEms is helping Labour against the coalition.
Who is favourite to be PM Now ?
Of course it's a big IF, most pollsters have them on for losing 50
They re going to lose 4 more seats than they hold, SLAB on -4 MPs next time. :O
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
All showing large Labour swings
You may very well be right but who is this Ashcroft? I don't recall them polling in 2010, 2005, 2001, 1997 or indeed any previous General Election. Are they the rebirth of BPIX who also shone briefly before vanishing into vapour. A google shows one 'Lord Ashcroft' who polled at Heywood and Middleton but it obviously could not be the same as he was wrong by a whopping 17%. A constituency pollster one would indeed be cautious of following were it him.
Can please someone explain to him who "is this Ashcroft" ?
I refer the gentleman to the answer I gave some moments ago.
Surely the rest of the world will be looking on in astonishment at a British Prime minister becoming a cheerleader for Scottish separatists. Why doesn't Miliband point this out? The Tories are no longer a party of Britain. Since the Tories can no longer have Britain they've decided to try and wreck it. Might not be 100% accurate but Labour need to come out fighting.
And when will someone in the media challenge Cameron. The Tories claim that Britain's nuclear deterrant is under threat if Labour get into power because of the SNP. But it wouldn't be if the Tories guaranteed to support it. Why should Cameron have to answer questions about hypotheticals in hung parliaments you ask? Well he's throwing them around so why not?
Where and when has David Cameron been a cheerleader for Scottish separtists?
LOL this is the guy PB Nats have been saying always gets Scotland wrong.
and now suddenly he has statesmanlike insight.
chortle etc.
Alan, I think your irony meter is malfunctioning
Your meter is running backwards. Cameron clearly said the other day that on Marr that he thought the SNP were dangerous. Ch 4 News reported ''The main thrust of Mr Cameron’s interview was an attack on the SNP: “these people,” he said contemptuously, “who don’t care what happens to the rest of the UK” will be dictating life in England if they are propping up a Labour minority government. Andrew Marr said the PM was beginning to sound like an English Nationalist, which went down pretty badly.''
Well, after today's polls, file me under "none the wiser". I am pleased to see a small uptick in LD fortunes - the sunlit uplands of double figures heaves into view it would seem.
The ICM Conservative figure was the outlier most of us expected - the Ashcroft Labour number looks on the low side but I wouldn't argue with those who claim a tiny Conservative lead at this stage.
Looking at the long term polling trends, I am tempted to dismiss Populus and You Gov polls. They have just been static for too long now. I would say the same if they were consistently showing the tories just ahead but not moving.
All of the other pollsters have shown a degree of movement, either random or a reaction to events, a far more believable scenario.
I think Populus and You Gov have serious issues which their panels and can't seem to find a way to deal with it.
If one of both of them gets close to the actual result, I will take all this back. We are not even getting the odd outlier from them like we were a couple of months ago.
Tories probably do have a small lead (1-2%), but it all could change either direction. If it does, I for one, will not be looking for any trends for those Pollsters however.
PS - I think LD and UKIP will poll roughly the same on 7 May and that will be 10-11%
Channel 4 news is reporting that some of the big sources of 'refugees' crossing the Mediterranean are Eritrea, Gambia and Senegal. There are not even wars in these places, showing that it is more about economic migration than persecution.
Some of these are very repressive countries. There is plenty of persecution. But this belies the massive numbers coming from Libya (war), Darfur (war), etc.
Weird lines from Ed about not appointing his Cabinet now - what's a shadow cabinet if not that (in general at least), particularly if you are going to say you have a great team?
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
That I think is sound advice. Labour may pick up a handful in London at best, probably 4 or 5. They will be scrapping elsewhere in England for as much as they can.
The Liberal Democrat wipeout makes this talk of 'plurality' seem terribly simplistic. As I mentioned yesterday, the EW Con to Lab UNS is an incredibly blunt, and simpletons, tool. It reminds me of the old Peter Snow Swingometer days and of little real value. Regional variations are going to be complex but vital. To remind you:
LibDem wipeout in South West to Conservatives Labour swings in West Midlands and urban north UKIP in traditional Labour, East Anglia and south-east London Labour SNP Scotland
These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
So Lab lose 35 in Scotland, gain 4 in London, scrapping for about 10 in the rest of the country, leaving them on about 235 seats. LDs wiped out leaving them on - what - 15 seats. SNP 50, others 25, giving the Conservatives 325 seats. I dare say that will be a popular line of argument in this parish!
I was about to post up a prediction but that is remarkably close to what I suspect may happen.
I think the chances of a Labour majority are pretty much zero. They're going to lose at least 20 seats in Scotland and they're not going to make more than 60 gains elsewhere. Therefore their maximum number of seats is around 300.
Con Aberconwy 4-9, Lab target 326.
On the other hand Ashcroft has swings to the Tories in Kingswood and NE Somerset and the LDs holding Cambridge by 9 points.
Absolute lie about not addressing hypotheticals. Can't some spinner come up with a better line than pretending leaders don't do that? Without falling back on the godsdamned 'old fashioned view' about waiting for the people to decide at the GE?
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
That I think is sound advice. Labour may pick up a handful in London at best, probably 4 or 5. They will be scrapping elsewhere in England for as much as they can.
The Liberal Democrat wipeout makes this talk of 'plurality' seem terribly simplistic. As I mentioned yesterday, the EW Con to Lab UNS is an incredibly blunt, and simpletons, tool. It reminds me of the old Peter Snow Swingometer days and of little real value. Regional variations are going to be complex but vital. To remind you:
LibDem wipeout in South West to Conservatives Labour swings in West Midlands and urban north UKIP in traditional Labour, East Anglia and south-east London Labour SNP Scotland
These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
So Lab lose 35 in Scotland, gain 4 in London, scrapping for about 10 in the rest of the country, leaving them on about 235 seats. LDs wiped out leaving them on - what - 15 seats. SNP 50, others 25, giving the Conservatives 325 seats. I dare say that will be a popular line of argument in this parish!
I think the chances of a Labour majority are pretty much zero. They're going to lose at least 20 seats in Scotland and they're not going to make more than 60 gains elsewhere. Therefore their maximum number of seats is around 300.
Con Aberconwy 4-9, Lab target 326.
On the other hand Ashcroft has swings to the Tories in Kingswood and NE Somerset and the LDs holding Cambridge by 9 points.
I'm all over the Mogg and Huppert like a rash tbh.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
That I think is sound advice. Labour may pick up a handful in London at best, probably 4 or 5. They will be scrapping elsewhere in England for as much as they can.
The Liberal Democrat wipeout makes this talk of 'plurality' seem terribly simplistic. As I mentioned yesterday, the EW Con to Lab UNS is an incredibly blunt, and simpletons, tool. It reminds me of the old Peter Snow Swingometer days and of little real value. Regional variations are going to be complex but vital. To remind you:
LibDem wipeout in South West to Conservatives Labour swings in West Midlands and urban north UKIP in traditional Labour, East Anglia and south-east London Labour SNP Scotland
These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
So Lab lose 35 in Scotland, gain 4 in London, scrapping for about 10 in the rest of the country, leaving them on about 235 seats. LDs wiped out leaving them on - what - 15 seats. SNP 50, others 25, giving the Conservatives 325 seats. I dare say that will be a popular line of argument in this parish!
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
Channel 4 news is reporting that some of the big sources of 'refugees' crossing the Mediterranean are Eritrea, Gambia and Senegal. There are not even wars in these places, showing that it is more about economic migration than persecution.
It's all economic migration. Scary fact is Africa's population is supposed to rise to 4bn this century.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
That I think is sound advice. Labour may pick up a handful in London at best, probably 4 or 5. They will be scrapping elsewhere in England for as much as they can.
The Liberal Democrat wipeout makes this talk of 'plurality' seem terribly simplistic. As I mentioned yesterday, the EW Con to Lab UNS is an incredibly blunt, and simpletons, tool. It reminds me of the old Peter Snow Swingometer days and of little real value. Regional variations are going to be complex but vital. To remind you:
LibDem wipeout in South West to Conservatives Labour swings in West Midlands and urban north UKIP in traditional Labour, East Anglia and south-east London Labour SNP Scotland
These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
So Lab lose 35 in Scotland, gain 4 in London, scrapping for about 10 in the rest of the country, leaving them on about 235 seats. LDs wiped out leaving them on - what - 15 seats. SNP 50, others 25, giving the Conservatives 325 seats. I dare say that will be a popular line of argument in this parish!
EICIPM punters: hold your nerve.
Labour gain 4 in London ? Have you ever been to London ? 9 mate, possibly 10 or even 11.
Robert Hutton (@RobDotHutton) 20/04/2015 19:04 Exclusive: Don't Mention The Manifesto! Conservatives go quiet about flagship policy bloom.bg/1Jn2ixO pic.twitter.com/9fZyWTfqIn
Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) 20/04/2015 19:40 Came home to Conservative leaflet. Fear, negativity, blah. Totally uninspiring -> pic.twitter.com/yCwWmocLdZ
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
All showing large Labour swings
You may very well be right but who is this Ashcroft? I don't recall them polling in 2010, 2005, 2001, 1997 or indeed any previous General Election. Are they the rebirth of BPIX who also shone briefly before vanishing into vapour. A google shows one 'Lord Ashcroft' who polled at Heywood and Middleton but it obviously could not be the same as he was wrong by a whopping 17%. A constituency pollster one would indeed be cautious of following were it him.
Welcome to pb.com. But your tips aren't going to be followed for very long if you don't even know who Lord Ashcroft is!
Ah, and there was me thinking that perhaps, just perhaps, I was being sarcastic.
I wondered if you were trying to be sarcastic, but it never works well on the web - you cannot inject the correct tone of voice.
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
Which is worse: egotistical presenters/interviewers not allowing the politician answer a question properly, or politicians demanding to be allowed to answer the question, but not doing so even when they have the opportunity, and insisting they have answered it?
Although he is seen as past his sell-by: personally I like the Paxman approach. It partly consists of curve ball questions that it is just possible to imagine have not been game-played by a leader's team of SpAds and courtiers, e.g. "how many foodbanks?" as an opener. No other interviewer would have the nerve.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
That I think is sound advice. Labour may pick up a handful in London at best, probably 4 or 5. They will be scrapping elsewhere in England for as much as they can.
The Liberal Democrat wipeout makes this talk of 'plurality' seem terribly simplistic. As I mentioned yesterday, the EW Con to Lab UNS is an incredibly blunt, and simpletons, tool. It reminds me of the old Peter Snow Swingometer days and of little real value. Regional variations are going to be complex but vital. To remind you:
LibDem wipeout in South West to Conservatives Labour swings in West Midlands and urban north UKIP in traditional Labour, East Anglia and south-east London Labour SNP Scotland
These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
So Lab lose 35 in Scotland, gain 4 in London, scrapping for about 10 in the rest of the country, leaving them on about 235 seats. LDs wiped out leaving them on - what - 15 seats. SNP 50, others 25, giving the Conservatives 325 seats. I dare say that will be a popular line of argument in this parish!
EICIPM punters: hold your nerve.
Labour gain 4 in London ? Have you ever been to London ? 9 mate, possibly 10 or even 11.
I'm in London and it's terribly split. Some parts are going very Labour but they're not really the parts they most need the boost. Other parts are bucking the trend, or rather continuing the pro blue one they began a decade ago e.g. Battersea area. One big factor is the LibDem demise especially in the western sectors.
Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) 20/04/2015 19:40 Came home to Conservative leaflet. Fear, negativity, blah. Totally uninspiring -> pic.twitter.com/yCwWmocLdZ
So essentially it says don't vote Clegg (they use his picture on the leaflet of doom). Has TSE seen that?
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
How much did we have on that LD UKIP seats bet?
I don't know but care to explain? I'm up for a bet. What's the offering?
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
so on top of Jim Murphy and Owen Jones, we have the ultimate proof of labour's struggle
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Well, I've stuck up for Ed for many years, I've said he was not nearly as bad as people claimed, and that I do not think his government would be a disaster. But I really did not like him in tonight's interview. Evasive, petulant and even at times a bit smug. He should have stuck to the Mr Super Reasonable schtick he has been deploying to great effect. But I accept I am not his target audience - perhaps as it was not one of the debates, and much more likely to be watched by wonks, he decided to go on the attack more.
The only way the SNP could stop a Labour government renewing Trident is if the Tories support them. Miliband should point this out again and again.
Labour will have close to 300 MPs. The SNP would have no more than 60. The only way they could obstruct Labour is if the Tories support them.
60 bit optimistic for SNP...
300 optimistic for Labour tbh.
We're talking ball parks which is all that's necessary for the point I'm making. Only the Tories could stop a Labour minority government renewing Trident. Would they?
Well, I've stuck up for Ed for many years, I've said he was not nearly as bad as people claimed, and that I do not think his government would be a disaster. But I really did not like him in tonight's interview. Evasive, petulant and even at times a bit smug. He should have stuck to the Mr Super Reasonable schtick he has been deploying to great effect. But I accept I am not his target audience - perhaps as it was not one of the debates, and much more likely to be watched by wonks, he decided to go on the attack more.
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
so on top of Jim Murphy and Owen Jones, we have the ultimate proof of labour's struggle
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Labour spinners appear to be in meltdown...
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
How much did we have on that LD UKIP seats bet?
I think Ladbrokes match bet of UKIP vs LD offers a bit of value on the LDs, though it could be a race fot the bottom.
Which is worse: egotistical presenters/interviewers not allowing the politician answer a question properly, or politicians demanding to be allowed to answer the question, but not doing so even when they have the opportunity, and insisting they have answered it?
Although he is seen as past his sell-by: personally I like the Paxman approach. It partly consists of curve ball questions that it is just possible to imagine have not been game-played by a leader's team of SpAds and courtiers, e.g. "how many foodbanks?" as an opener. No other interviewer would have the nerve.
I think Paxman is very good at that, not that he hasn't at times made missteps (I think an opener of his to Galloway about 'getting rid of' one of the few black women in Parliament in 2005 IIRC was a pretty ridiculous question), and I think we need a certain number of interviewers willing to go there. I do think if someone is bad at it it is very unhelpful, it is a delicate line they have to tread, but done right it is very useful. I was just struck by Ed tonight that one thing politicians do to retaliate now is insist they have answered the question when they have not even close to done so, but if they insist loudly enough that they 'be allowed to answer', they will spin any non-answer as not having been permitted, even if they were.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
That I think is sound advice. Labour may pick up a handful in London at best, probably 4 or 5. They will be scrapping elsewhere in England for as much as they can.
The Liberal Democrat wipeout makes this talk of 'plurality' seem terribly simplistic. As I mentioned yesterday, the EW Con to Lab UNS is an incredibly blunt, and simpletons, tool. It reminds me of the old Peter Snow Swingometer days and of little real value. Regional variations are going to be complex but vital. To remind you:
LibDem wipeout in South West to Conservatives Labour swings in West Midlands and urban north UKIP in traditional Labour, East Anglia and south-east London Labour SNP Scotland
These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
So Lab lose 35 in Scotland, gain 4 in London, scrapping for about 10 in the rest of the country, leaving them on about 235 seats. LDs wiped out leaving them on - what - 15 seats. SNP 50, others 25, giving the Conservatives 325 seats. I dare say that will be a popular line of argument in this parish!
EICIPM punters: hold your nerve.
Labour gain 4 in London ? Have you ever been to London ? 9 mate, possibly 10 or even 11.
The only way the SNP could stop a Labour government renewing Trident is if the Tories support them. Miliband should point this out again and again.
Labour will have close to 300 MPs. The SNP would have no more than 60. The only way they could obstruct Labour is if the Tories support them.
60 bit optimistic for SNP...
300 optimistic for Labour tbh.
We're talking ball parks which is all that's necessary for the point I'm making. Only the Tories could stop a Labour minority government renewing Trident. Would they?
No - Trident is goiing through whatever the Gov't.
US polls always show this sort of thing at this sort of stage in the cycle - indeed the Presidential polls are little more than name recognition polls at the moment. [The same is true within the GOP nomination polls]. A clear front runner in one party with strong name recognition leads by large margins in the polls until the challenger's name recognition goes up (a gradual process) and is nominated (usually quite a step). Given that Hillary has sky high name recognition, it is obvious why she holds a lead in the Presidential polling. It will not hold, certainly not by those margins. I envisage a close election, unless the GOP pick an absolute dud.
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
so on top of Jim Murphy and Owen Jones, we have the ultimate proof of labour's struggle
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Labour spinners appear to be in meltdown...
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
What on earth is he on about? In what universe is wheeling out former leaders squalid? One of the benefits is surely that they don't have to toe the line if they don't want to, so they must generally believe in it.
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
How much did we have on that LD UKIP seats bet?
So Labour only gain around 20 from Tories? That's a swing of around 2 or 2.5%
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
Fckn hell, what level of grinding third world poverty is implied by a poor man's Grant Shapps?
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
so on top of Jim Murphy and Owen Jones, we have the ultimate proof of labour's struggle
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago @David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Labour spinners appear to be in meltdown...
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
What on earth is he on about? In what universe is wheeling out former leaders squalid? One of the benefits is surely that they don't have to toe the line if they don't want to, so they must generally believe in it.
They think they are losing.... he can't stop the bile.
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·46 secs47 seconds ago . @David_Cameron puts a few more years in Downing St ahead of hundreds of years of Union between England and Scotland. Divide and misrule
One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
Or.... "for the good of the country", "to avoid chaos", "to deal with meltdown in the markets", "because this is how it is done on continent" etc etc, they will attempt to do a deal.
I think we may see something like this. None of us know but my best guestimate at this stage is the following:
Conservative 310 to 340 Labour 240-ish SNP 40+ LibDem 12 Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
How much did we have on that LD UKIP seats bet?
I don't know but care to explain? I'm up for a bet. What's the offering?
Comments
Last week after the BBC debate, it was said on here that Cameron and Clegg had secured a great deal by getting half hour interviews with Emily Maitlis immediately afterwards.. this turned out to be nonsense as the interviews didn't happen, and obv the people that made the claims are pretending they didn't..
But by that token, if the QT style thing does turn into a debate between Clegg, Cameron and Miliband, would it be seen on here as a major coup for Farage to have the "Audience with..." immediately afterwards, as he actually is in real life rather than a figment of a party supporters imagination?
Who is favourite to be PM Now ?
SNP GAIN Pyongyang North and the Borders .... who'd have thought it ?!?
What is it with Labour and numbers.
surbiton • Posts: 4,477
April 19 • edited April 19
This is what I think will happen:
Con 295
Lab 265
SNP 50
LD 18
PC 3
UKIP 1
Cameron according to you.
The Liberal Democrat wipeout makes this talk of 'plurality' seem terribly simplistic. As I mentioned yesterday, the EW Con to Lab UNS is an incredibly blunt, and simpletons, tool. It reminds me of the old Peter Snow Swingometer days and of little real value. Regional variations are going to be complex but vital. To remind you:
LibDem wipeout in South West to Conservatives
Labour swings in West Midlands and urban north
UKIP in traditional Labour, East Anglia and south-east
London Labour
SNP Scotland
These all render talk of 'xx% Con to Lab E&W swing' the sort of thing we'd expect at primary school rather than degree level political analysis.
Longer term though the two parties will have to cooperate at Holyrood elections at least to deny the SNP a majority.
Also, saw Caroline Flint at Marks and Spencers at Paddington Station today, obviously buying provisions before heading back to the campaign
Right now the state of the campaign is like this:
http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/ayt6ed/had-mex---marcnado
The media are having a fit, down to CNN having a 3D virtual reality presentation of Hillary's burrito and poor Rubio ignored by everyone.
304 -20 is 284
I'm guessing that the favourite to be PM is the leader of the party with most seats. Your sums do not work out. I think the election has barely started so there is still time for everybody, not least Labour in Scotland.
Well, after today's polls, file me under "none the wiser". I am pleased to see a small uptick in LD fortunes - the sunlit uplands of double figures heaves into view it would seem.
The ICM Conservative figure was the outlier most of us expected - the Ashcroft Labour number looks on the low side but I wouldn't argue with those who claim a tiny Conservative lead at this stage.
Fortunately I doubt they will have the chance as they are going to face a slaughter so the mathematics are unlikely to be in their favour.
Every man and his dog knows they are not interested in influencing UK politics as a whole and that they are essentially a single purpose outfit - that purpose being an independent Scotland.
They will never achieve a YES vote with a Labour government in Westminster - I am pretty sure they wouldn't even push for another Indy Ref in such a scenario.
By love bombing Labour in so much as supporting most of their core economic manifesto promises, but actually in some cases going a bit further to the left, they themselves are trying to spook the English electorate into returning a Tory government that they cynically claim to despise.
Only then with almost complete representation in Westminster for Scotland and a totally dominant Holyrood in 2016, will they be able to execute their plan.
If the short game fails and they do end up supporting Labour, they will operate a black ops campaign against them, supporting them publicly but undermining them quietly outside of the public eye. Salmond, love him or hate him, is a very canny operator and you can bet that he will expose any weakness in Miliband during the course of the parliamentary term.
The last thing the SNP want is, despite a likely S&C arrangement, is for that government to be successful and get itself elected again in 2020.
All of which is potentially damaging for the long terms needs of the country and probably catastrophic for the long term future of the Labour party.
He also seems to be suggesting that quoting facts and figures doesn't reflect reality. I'll bet he changes his tune on that when it comes time to defend his record in government.
I did not say Labour will win 20 seats from the Tories. Labour only needs to win 20 to make up for the 40 being lost, a big IF.
In reality, Labour will lose about 35 in Scotland [ still a bad loss ] but win 40 - 45 in England and Wales.
Cameron clearly said the other day that on Marr that he thought the SNP were dangerous.
Ch 4 News reported
''The main thrust of Mr Cameron’s interview was an attack on the SNP: “these people,” he said contemptuously, “who don’t care what happens to the rest of the UK” will be dictating life in England if they are propping up a Labour minority government. Andrew Marr said the PM was beginning to sound like an English Nationalist, which went down pretty badly.''
This is hardly cheerleading.
All of the other pollsters have shown a degree of movement, either random or a reaction to events, a far more believable scenario.
I think Populus and You Gov have serious issues which their panels and can't seem to find a way to deal with it.
If one of both of them gets close to the actual result, I will take all this back. We are not even getting the odd outlier from them like we were a couple of months ago.
Tories probably do have a small lead (1-2%), but it all could change either direction. If it does, I for one, will not be looking for any trends for those Pollsters however.
PS - I think LD and UKIP will poll roughly the same on 7 May and that will be 10-11%
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/the-everyday-people-who-made-hillary-clintons-lunch-117018.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/14/us/politics/on-the-road-hillary-clinton-stops-for-lunch-at-chipotle-and-goes-unrecognized.html?_r=0
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/Newsflash-Hillary-Ordered-a-Low-Cal--Burrito-Bowl-299862891.html
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/04/20/cnnorc2016poll04202015.pdf
Conservative 310 to 340
Labour 240-ish
SNP 40+
LibDem 12
Ukip 1 to 2. Reckless will lose, Carswell will win. It's just a question of whether Farage will. On balance 'yes' but he's made a lot of enemies so he may not.
20/04/2015 19:04
Exclusive: Don't Mention The Manifesto! Conservatives go quiet about flagship policy bloom.bg/1Jn2ixO pic.twitter.com/9fZyWTfqIn
20/04/2015 19:40
Came home to Conservative leaflet. Fear, negativity, blah. Totally uninspiring -> pic.twitter.com/yCwWmocLdZ
Labour will have close to 300 MPs. The SNP would have no more than 60. The only way they could obstruct Labour is if the Tories support them.
I wondered if you were trying to be sarcastic, but it never works well on the web - you cannot inject the correct tone of voice.
I don't watch soccer - If I wanted to see people try desperately for 90 minutes to score, I'd take my friends to a bar
300 optimistic for Labour tbh.
As I remember from Dunblane Michael Forsyth is decent honourable man/politics I disagree with but values I respect cf @David_Cameron
Has TSE seen that?
A myth.
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·48 secs49 seconds ago
@David_Cameron is playing fast and loose with the Union to give himself a shot at a little while longer limping as PM. Pathetic and squalid
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago
Squalid too to see John Major being wheeled out like a poor man's Grant Shapps or Michael Fallon to toe the Crosby line. Awful people
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-04-20/ed-miliband-labour-election-victory-within-grasp/
Ed MIliband's definition of "victory" obviously doesn't include winning 326 seats. Or is he really expecting to make 90+ gains in England & Wales?
Alastair Campbell ✔ @campbellclaret
. @David_Cameron puts a few more years in Downing St ahead of hundreds of years of Union between England and Scotland. Divide and misrule
Christ coming from this man,laughable.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
How many more Iraqis will have to die Al?
There isn't enough Swarfega in the world to wash his hands clean.
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·46 secs47 seconds ago
. @David_Cameron puts a few more years in Downing St ahead of hundreds of years of Union between England and Scotland. Divide and misrule