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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf’s summation as the big day gets closer
The worst pun of the day from the William Hill press office
Punters Back Mili To Be Ed Boy
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32% of people want us to play a role in the next British govt? Fantastic
17 days to go and got all BJO family to register. 8 LAB votes secured
My, you are a trusting fellow. In the secrecy of the ballot box, who knows what happens..??
The whole refugee thing seems to be abused at times. There are a lot of Russian people who claim asylum in the UK on the basis of homophobia back home. That seems like a much smaller threat than the generalised threat of living in a warzone, which doesn't qualify you. I don't particularly mind it, as Russian gay people tend to be very pro-Western, educated and don't have any children to pay for, but it shows the system is a bit illogical.
I think an apology it now in order from the BBC and also from their correspondents, Norman Smith and Carole Walker but I'm sure no-one will hold their breath.
Appalling bias.
The questions which European governments have to decide is (a) whether they want to take any of these people at all. If not, they need to be hard-hearted and either refuse to rescue people - which would seem to go against all normal human instincts - or simply send them back; or (b) if they do want to take some, how to choose; and (c) how to bear the costs and burdens.
I don't know what the power politics behind refusing recognition were, but they had a functioning state, backed up by democratic elections.
Nevertheless, it's telling that it's worse than the rampantly pro-European LibDems.
@tyson - Welcome to the clarets supporters team! A lifetime of mights and maybes!
@foxinsoxuk - I would not say Leicester are safe with a win, you would only be on 31 points and I think 35 is needed. Indeed if you lose, you may still be fine.
We have been solid at home, but lacking goals. Remember the 2-0 defeat last year was when Vokes got injured. Perhaps he will get back in to the goals one year on!
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
Isam is right, UKIP will be very happy with 32%... perhaps respondents effectively treated the question as a forced choice between the three alternatives.
There will be an Economist piece on Broxtowe on Thursday.
Unspoofable.
And it'd be worse for Labour if they got into bed with the SNP. The Conservatives would take huge chunks out of red England, UKIP would get in where the blues couldn't, and it'd help the Lib Dems come back.
But, as I've said before, Miliband will be desperate to become PM because if he doesn't he ended his brother's political career and caused huge family turmoil for nothing. He's also a damned fool who thinks price fixing works and the answer to every question is state intervention. I'd be unsurprised if he tried to carve England into pathetic little fiefdoms.
It's not great by any means, as well as using the 'no plans' stock response, but it's better than the insult to our intelligence of what we are getting. Normally it isn't though, so he's been unlucky in that respect.
Make of that what you will....
Don't address the points I make, again.
More people wanting to get into bed with Eurosceptic Farage than Europhile Clegg is good news for Clegg.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
I don't know whether the SNP issue will necessarily be such a big bogeyman as some seem to think. If you're pro-Labour why would it worry you that there will be another left-wing anti-austerity party around to stiffen Labour views?
If you're not Labour then it might well be a problem. But voters might just look at it as the opposite of the Tory/Lib Dem coalition and go, hmph: we've had one coalition; we'll survive another one with different ingredients.
The people of Yeovil didn't want to get rid of Laws even after his big scandal, so why now?
I am parodying, I don't think it is relevant.
If you want a shock Labour loss, folks, try Plymouth Moor View. Johnny Mercer is a fabulously energetic (ex military) candidate for the Tories. I'm told he aims to have personally knocked on every door in the constituency by election day.
And Labour are having a bit of a mare with UKIP, so I am told....
Which by one of those strange coincidences is exactly how he spent the final week of the 1992 campaign (denouncing Labour's devolutiun proposals) to seemingly great effect.
While mathematically not certain a win against Burnley would leave us needing 4 points from Chelsea H, Newcastle H, Southampton H, Sunderland A and QPR H. The last could be a hell of a final day if we are both still in the running.
There's no avoiding SNP influence in a Lab-SNP arrangement. Saying 'it's not a formal coalition' is like saying 'she's not my girlfriend, we're just mutually exclusive **** buddies'.
But, ultimately, despite UKIP's higher poll ratings, fewer people want UKIP in power than want the LibDems. And by a ratio of more than 1.5:1, more people don't want UKIP in power. (And, again, this is a massively worse ratio than the LibDem's one.)
Those who claim this is "good news" for UKIP have entered into a higher state of cognitive dissonance.
Or perhaps you expected a lot higher numbers for UKIP, I was expecting better for the Lib Dems.
His voters have yet to pass judgment on his little expenses difficulty.....
I think Labour need to push the idea that both the SNP and Tories benefit from dividing the country and the union, and it's only Labour that will secure the union. That's the only line of attack that might have some potency.
Also they need Gordon Brown out in Scotland every day. He might be about as attractive as Ebola to English voters but he still carries weight north of the border.
LAB 35
UKIP 30
CON 26
There is a much greater chance UKIP take that seat than the "energetic candidate'.
UKIP, who placed first in the Euro elections in 2014, doesn't even manage to get the same share of voters who think it should be in any position in government.
But I guess if your ambition is to become the fourth party of British politics, then it is good news.
Cognitive dissonance, thy embodiment is FalseFlag.
Labour leaflet has candidate with Harman not Miliband. Harman an electoral asset FFS...still laughting at that one, but there will be some women who think she is a wonderful human being, but they could be on something powerful, and only available on prescription from a psychiatrist.
In the polls more and more people have a positive view of Sturgeon and the SNP, thanks to the debates too.
Therefore I prefer to listen only to negative reports :-) (It was when a friend of mine, historically active in the Cambridge Labour Party first told me that Huppert was going to walk re-election that I realised that there was free money on the table.)
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago
@David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
tories are a caring bunch aren't we?
Ruth Davidson MSP@RuthDavidsonMSP·10m10 minutes ago
.@JimForScotland @David_Cameron
you ok, hun?
20 losses to Lab
6 gains from LD in the bag
10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
Though the Heywood by-election was an exception, but compouter2 was in the inside of the local Labour operation and local Labour animosity with Danczuk was an excellent guide to the close result.
SeanT writes "Plus a lot of rUK people in poorer areas (Cornwall, Wales, the north) really dislike the idea of the Scots (who they already see as indulged) getting an even bigger slice of the pie (when they already have their own government, "protecting" them from Westminster and nasty tuition fees etc)."
From BBC Wales:
"Answering a question at the SNP manifesto launch, Ms Sturgeon had said: "I do support Leanne Wood's and Plaid Cymru's call for parity for Wales but not at the expense of Scotland, because I do not accept that Scotland is subsidised and I will argue passionately against that notion for as long as I am in politics.”
Well, fair play to Ms Sturgeon.
I don’t think any of the vacuous Welsh Labour MPs have ever said anything like this. All the Kinnocks and the Hains and the Murphys and the Howells and the Bryants have never once said that Wales should have parity with Scotland. Even thought they had (in some cases) many years in power to fix this.
Compare Ms Sturgeon with Mr Miliband, “I’m not going to make a false promise to you now, Leanne, on this stage, because it's not responsible, because we have a deficit that we have to get down."
Nicola Sturgeon’s message (whether she means it or not) will go down a lot better then Ed Miliband’s.