There are few things I would say with 100% certainty but I think we safely rule out SDLP support for a Tory-led Government. (DUP support for a Labour-led Government otoh...)
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
Same vibe I'm getting. Labour have to deal with this. But how?
If I were Miliband I'd say that "I would never do a deal with the SNP under any circumstances, nor rely on them for any votes to sustain my government."
In other words, I'd lie.
The narrative today has completely changed the GE and there is absolutely nothing Ed Miliband or labour can say or do (other than saying I agree with Nicola). The irony is that the wall to wall media coverage has created this story and all David Cameron and the conservatives needs t do is to pick up the narrative and make huge political gains out of it in RUK
Which is what I'm sure John Major will do tomorrow.
Which by one of those strange coincidences is exactly how he spent the final week of the 1992 campaign (denouncing Labour's devolutiun proposals) to seemingly great effect.
Hasn't Micheal Fosyth's intervention confused that line of attack.
I think Labour need to push the idea that both the SNP and Tories benefit from dividing the country and the union, and it's only Labour that will secure the union. That's the only line of attack that might have some potency.
Also they need Gordon Brown out in Scotland every day. He might be about as attractive as Ebola to English voters but he still carries weight north of the border.
They are struggling to get enough power to get him started up again , takes time to get Longannet fired up.
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
Same vibe I'm getting. Labour have to deal with this. But how?
If I were Miliband I'd say that "I would never do a deal with the SNP under any circumstances, nor rely on them for any votes to sustain my government."
In other words, I'd lie.
That's unrealistic. And voters know it. Isn't the obvious answer that he should be pushing to get every possible Labour vote so that Labour can form a majority government without needing SNP votes - though I confess I don't know whether that is at all doable.
Why is it unrealistic? Politicians lie all the time.
What you're suggesting is what he is already doing, and it ain't working.
It's not the lying which is unrealistic. But saying that he won't rely on SNP votes since senior Lab people are already saying the opposite.
I don't know whether the SNP issue will necessarily be such a big bogeyman as some seem to think. If you're pro-Labour why would it worry you that there will be another left-wing anti-austerity party around to stiffen Labour views?
If you're not Labour then it might well be a problem. But voters might just look at it as the opposite of the Tory/Lib Dem coalition and go, hmph: we've had one coalition; we'll survive another one with different ingredients.
Labour's vote is soft, we know that. A lot of Blairites don't like Miliband, a lot of LD switches could easily switch back to the LDs.
Plus a lot of rUK people in poorer areas (Cornwall, Wales, the north) really dislike the idea of the Scots (who they already see as indulged) getting an even bigger slice of the pie (when they already have their own government, "protecting" them from Westminster and nasty tuition fees etc).
The idea of 5m Scotch calling the shots in England (population 55m) challenges the innate English sense of fair play, even - perhaps - with Lefties.
"Answering a question at the SNP manifesto launch, Ms Sturgeon had said: "I do support Leanne Wood's and Plaid Cymru's call for parity for Wales but not at the expense of Scotland, because I do not accept that Scotland is subsidised and I will argue passionately against that notion for as long as I am in politics.”
Well, fair play to Ms Sturgeon.
Why is this fair play to Ms Sturgeon? If she thinks that regions that are not subsidised - i.e. those richer than average - shouldn't pay for Wales' subsidies, then who should pay for it? Other poor parts of the country?
Quarter of million voter registrations today, so far, says Electoral Commission.
Remember that's applications - many applying are already on the register without realising it - so it doesn't mean the register will actually rise by 250k.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
Oh sure, we can all trade partisan cheerleading stuff - doesn't get anybody anywhere.
I am merely saying that IF, and I emphasise IF, Con truly believe that is the true position then they shouldn't do the debate.
If they've mis-assessed the situation then they'll be taking the decision based on incorrect information - in which case they obviously may take the wrong decision.
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
I begin to believe that the Tory campaign has given up.
Where are the policies, where are the announcements, where are the adverts? It's all SNP, SNP, SNP all day long from the Tories, even if it drives the SNP's popularity even higher, which is pointless since the SNP was going to get all scottish seats anyway.
Making the SNP the most popular party in Britain will not make the Tories win the election.
Quarter of million voter registrations today, so far, says Electoral Commission.
Remember that's applications - many applying are already on the register without realising it - so it doesn't mean the register will actually rise by 250k.
Good point. Although surely they would have had a polling card in the last few days if they were on register.
I begin to believe that the Tory campaign has given up.
Where are the policies, where are the announcements, where are the adverts? It's all SNP, SNP, SNP all day long from the Tories, even if it drives the SNP's popularity even higher, which is pointless since the SNP was going to get all scottish seats anyway.
Making the SNP the most popular party in Britain will not make the Tories win the election.
Surely the rest of the world will be looking on in astonishment at a British Prime minister becoming a cheerleader for Scottish separatists. Why doesn't Miliband point this out? The Tories are no longer a party of Britain. Since the Tories can no longer have Britain they've decided to try and wreck it. Might not be 100% accurate but Labour need to come out fighting.
And when will someone in the media challenge Cameron. The Tories claim that Britain's nuclear deterrant is under threat if Labour get into power because of the SNP. But it wouldn't be if the Tories guaranteed to support it. Why should Cameron have to answer questions about hypotheticals in hung parliaments you ask? Well he's throwing them around so why not?
@Neil What bets if any do you like in NI - I'm on Dodds at 4-9 but no others atm.
I dont see any outstanding value out there. I really hope the Unionist parties get what they deserve in Belfast East over the flegs debacle but sadly I think their appalling cynicism will probably pay off. I would have thought that Tom Elliot was reasonable value in Fermanagh and South Tyrone except for the fact that his party is probably the most incompetent electoral machine in these islands.
Naturallmondo I disagree with the statement "Bad for UKIP"
32% of people want us to play a role in the next British govt? Fantastic
Yes, it's quite a remarkable figure really. Perhaps we found the shy kippers.
Well, it's the 15% who vote for UKIP directly, plus 40% of Tory voters, plus 10% of Labour voters.
Nevertheless, it's telling that it's worse than the rampantly pro-European LibDems.
What's important is that there is more support among Tory voters for doing a deal with UKIP than doing a deal with the Liberal Democrats. We've lost 10% of the electorate to UKIP, versus gaining about 5% from the Lib Dems. It's very clear that the next Conservative leader needs to rebalance the scales in our positioning.
That would, I think, be some kind of minority Cameron govt.
Those are almost exactly the SPIN numbers.
LAB + SNP + GRN + PC + SDLP vote him down. Not quite enough.
But would they really all combine to vote him down? When the Tories are clearly the largest party with the most votes?
The least anti-Tory party in that list is probably Labour.
It's irrelevant.
I dont think it's irrelevant to what they might do. If any of the parties were less hostile to the Tories then it would make them less likely to vote them down regardless.
That would, I think, be some kind of minority Cameron govt.
Nope, not on those numbers - Con + LD need at least 5 more.
Observe the sons of Ulster, marching to the Line.
Well if Miliband can team up with a bunch of humourless calvinist authoritarians whose only purpose is to piss off their neighbours why can't Cameron ?
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
Jim should be careful here, he's going to need Tory tacticals to help him save his seat.
What a way to entice the likes of @DavidL for his vote though.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
Oh sure, we can all trade partisan cheerleading stuff - doesn't get anybody anywhere.
I am merely saying that IF, and I emphasise IF, Con truly believe that is the true position then they shouldn't do the debate.
If they've mis-assessed the situation then they'll be taking the decision based on misleading information - in which case they obviously may take the wrong decision.
It's so peripheral, that the only thing Labour would have to do is point that " if the Tories say the SNP is the devil, then why did the Tories supported a minority SNP government?"
That would, I think, be some kind of minority Cameron govt.
Those are almost exactly the SPIN numbers.
LAB + SNP + GRN + PC + SDLP vote him down. Not quite enough.
But would they really all combine to vote him down? When the Tories are clearly the largest party with the most votes?
The least anti-Tory party in that list is probably Labour.
It's irrelevant. I'll say it again, a bunch of cranks, Taffs, Nats and lefties immediately voting down the biggest party just cause they can is the one way to get Middle England all fired up at the resultant elex, ensuring a bigger Tory victory.
I can imagine Cameron's delight if they tried it.
Of course, that outcome is exactly what they want in the SNP. Tories in government scoffing at the innately unfair nature of the SNP having a say, Labour on the rack scrambling for English nationalists, waiting for the referendum, tick tock.
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
A conversation with my German colleagues today...expressing their concerns about Nicola Sturgeon!
"Answering a question at the SNP manifesto launch, Ms Sturgeon had said: "I do support Leanne Wood's and Plaid Cymru's call for parity for Wales but not at the expense of Scotland, because I do not accept that Scotland is subsidised and I will argue passionately against that notion for as long as I am in politics.”
Well, fair play to Ms Sturgeon.
Why is this fair play to Ms Sturgeon? If she thinks that regions that are not subsidised - i.e. those richer than average - shouldn't pay for Wales' subsidies, then who should pay for it? Other poor parts of the country?
I think your point is a reasonable one (hence I said "whether she [Sturgeon] means it or not”). It is not actually clear what will happen if Scotland does find itself paying for Wales or NE England, or so on.
But, really, I just find it incredible the ease with which the SNP have outflanked Labour.
Any or all the Welsh Labour MPs could have said they want funding parity with Scotland. None of them have.
I do expect Welsh MPs to fight for Wales (just as I expect Cornish MPs to fight for Cornwall or Northern MPs to fight for North of England).
I don’t expect Nicola Sturgeon to fight for Wales, I expect her to fight for Scotland. But Nicola has actually been more pugnacious that the entire dismal phalanx of Welsh Labour MPs
If Welsh Labour MPs don’t fight for Wales (and the Hains and the Bryants have a pretty dismal record), then I think, and I hope, they will ultimately go the same way as SLAB.
An afternoon canvassing in a traditionally Tory area (Nuthall) - "what will you do with the SNP?"" was mentioned once, by someone who seemed curious rather than concerned. Quite happy to have the Tories spend a few days chasing that hare. But Marquee Mark seems to be getting a very different picture - a regional variation, maybe. Where people wanted to discuss the result, there was a unanimous expectation of a hung Parliament - people who mentioned it didn't seem enthusiastic at the prospect, but felt we'd just need to deal with it by shifting majorities as required - "What else can you do?"
There will be an Economist piece on Broxtowe on Thursday.
Nick, there is certainly a fear that having a tie-up with the SNP will kill future infrastructure investment into the South West. Although Labour has already started that ball rolling in their manifesto, saying they would cancel a major road upgrade.
If you want a shock Labour loss, folks, try Plymouth Moor View. Johnny Mercer is a fabulously energetic (ex military) candidate for the Tories. I'm told he aims to have personally knocked on every door in the constituency by election day.
And Labour are having a bit of a mare with UKIP, so I am told....
Plymouth Moor View, latest constituency poll:
LAB 35 UKIP 30 CON 26
There is a much greater chance UKIP take that seat than the "energetic candidate'.
Another seat tipped by me as a value UKIP bet in May 2013
Your UKIP trading bet recommendations were outstanding. Those who followed your advice (and I only took you up in Thurrock, and not at 16/1) have made a lot of money.
Thank you! I am blushing!
My only regret is letting some profoundly ungrateful people into the loop, but you live and learn
(That and the fact that I didn't back many of them myself as was skint at the time!)
Expect a lot of tactical voting against the SNP in Gordon, where Alex Salmond is standing and his main opponent is LD candidate Christine Jardine.
The people may not like Alex , but unlikely they will vote for a donkey. LibDems are akin to lepers and also being a complete donkey into the bargain is a big drawback.
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
Same vibe I'm getting. Labour have to deal with this. But how?
If I were Miliband I'd say that "I would never do a deal with the SNP under any circumstances, nor rely on them for any votes to sustain my government."
In other words, I'd lie.
The narrative today has completely changed the GE and there is absolutely nothing Ed Miliband or labour can say or do (other than saying I agree with Nicola). The irony is that the wall to wall media coverage has created this story and all David Cameron and the conservatives needs t do is to pick up the narrative and make huge political gains out of it in RUK
Which is what I'm sure John Major will do tomorrow.
Which by one of those strange coincidences is exactly how he spent the final week of the 1992 campaign (denouncing Labour's devolutiun proposals) to seemingly great effect.
Hasn't Micheal Fosyth's intervention confused that line of attack.
I think Labour need to push the idea that both the SNP and Tories benefit from dividing the country and the union, and it's only Labour that will secure the union. That's the only line of attack that might have some potency.
Also they need Gordon Brown out in Scotland every day. He might be about as attractive as Ebola to English voters but he still carries weight north of the border.
As the English NHS has proven - thrice - Ebola is curable, albeit expensive, I'll call this one. The Edinborough Parish council is not curable: Simply filled (with the troupe of Jockanese clowns)
And extremely expensive to the English tax-bearing folk....
Darren McCaffrey (@DMcCaffreySKY) 20/04/2015 19:14 NEW: Farage if PM: send Royal Navy to assist in Med, divert some foreign aid and Britain accept a few thousand, mainly Christian refugees.
That would, I think, be some kind of minority Cameron govt.
Those are almost exactly the SPIN numbers.
LAB + SNP + GRN + PC + SDLP vote him down. Not quite enough.
But would they really all combine to vote him down? When the Tories are clearly the largest party with the most votes?
The least anti-Tory party in that list is probably Labour.
It's irrelevant. I'll say it again, a bunch of cranks, Taffs, Nats and lefties immediately voting down the biggest party just cause they can is the one way to get Middle England all fired up at the resultant elex, ensuring a bigger Tory victory.
I can imagine Cameron's delight if they tried it.
Abother election within a few months would be in the Conservative interest, I would seek to implement English votes for English laws, perhaps constituency resizing as well, as my first act and dare them to block it.
@Neil What bets if any do you like in NI - I'm on Dodds at 4-9 but no others atm.
I dont see any outstanding value out there. I really hope the Unionist parties get what they deserve in Belfast East over the flegs debacle but sadly I think their appalling cynicism will probably pay off. I would have thought that Tom Elliot was reasonable value in Fermanagh and South Tyrone except for the fact that his party is probably the most incompetent electoral machine in these islands.
The fun could be North Down - lots of candidates all drawing off the same pool of voters and Lady S maybe not as popular as she thinks. The DUP didn't stand against her last time so her majority flatters.
I think Jim is close to squeaming and squeaming...
Jim Murphy@JimForScotland·32 mins32 minutes ago @David_Cameron < You have demeaned the Office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to become a desperate cheerleader for the SNP.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
How does it fuel the break-up of the UK? The Nats are gonna sweep Scotland, we all know that. Tories are just saying don't let the Nats run England, which is fair enough, seeing as the Nats have a government all their own, already, on top of the one they are trying to dominate in England.
Why should the Nats not dominating England make Scots more likely to vote for independence? If that's the only reason Scots will stay in the UK (to control the London government against the wishes of the English people), then the UK is finished anyway.
I see bleats of pain from the likes of Own Jones (and Speedy downthread) as clear evidence Labour are worried the Tory Sturgeon=Miliband meme is working.
Entirely agree. the more Jim, Owen et al cry foul, the more it shows they haven't got an actual rebuttal method yet.
Darren McCaffrey (@DMcCaffreySKY) 20/04/2015 19:14 NEW: Farage if PM: send Royal Navy to assist in Med, divert some foreign aid and Britain accept a few thousand, mainly Christian refugees.
And how do you determine whether somebody is a Christian? It is hard enough to ascertain real ages and nearly impossible to ascertain country of origin when you have illegal immigrants who have risked everything to cross over with zero documentation.
I would presume as soon as people hear that their choice is Italy or the UK, there would be a huge temporarily conversion to Christianity.
Surely the rest of the world will be looking on in astonishment at a British Prime minister becoming a cheerleader for Scottish separatists. Why doesn't Miliband point this out? The Tories are no longer a party of Britain. Since the Tories can no longer have Britain they've decided to try and wreck it. Might not be 100% accurate but Labour need to come out fighting.
And when will someone in the media challenge Cameron. The Tories claim that Britain's nuclear deterrant is under threat if Labour get into power because of the SNP. But it wouldn't be if the Tories guaranteed to support it. Why should Cameron have to answer questions about hypotheticals in hung parliaments you ask? Well he's throwing them around so why not?
All sadly true, Frank me boy. The only national party in GB is now UKIP. So now you know what to vote if you really want a future.
Surely the rest of the world will be looking on in astonishment at a British Prime minister becoming a cheerleader for Scottish separatists. Why doesn't Miliband point this out? The Tories are no longer a party of Britain. Since the Tories can no longer have Britain they've decided to try and wreck it. Might not be 100% accurate but Labour need to come out fighting.
And when will someone in the media challenge Cameron. The Tories claim that Britain's nuclear deterrant is under threat if Labour get into power because of the SNP. But it wouldn't be if the Tories guaranteed to support it. Why should Cameron have to answer questions about hypotheticals in hung parliaments you ask? Well he's throwing them around so why not?
@Neil What bets if any do you like in NI - I'm on Dodds at 4-9 but no others atm.
I dont see any outstanding value out there. I really hope the Unionist parties get what they deserve in Belfast East over the flegs debacle but sadly I think their appalling cynicism will probably pay off. I would have thought that Tom Elliot was reasonable value in Fermanagh and South Tyrone except for the fact that his party is probably the most incompetent electoral machine in these islands.
The fun could be North Down - lots of candidates all drawing off the same pool of voters and Lady S maybe not as popular as she thinks. The DUP didn't stand aginst he last time so her majority flatters.
Just after I pressed post I thought exactly that. It helps that Paddy Power is offering odds on any other candidate (I would have thought Alex Easton was the greatest threat but 8/1 on any other candidate isnt too shabby).
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
I think you can probably take the Tories up to 20 gains from the LibDems, but you need to remember that they will probably lose at least one of Thanet South and Rochester - and possibly both - to UKIP. (And possibly, if the LibDem recovery continues, another couple.)
Thanks - but doesn't matter what I think or anyone else thinks.
Presuming Cameron himself will take the decision re the debate then what matters is what Cameron thinks - that is what will determine his decision.
Of course he may not trust the intelligence per Jack W's earlier post - he may think it's wishful thinking and that the true Con position is worse.
We don't know either way. The only purpose of my post was to say that IF that is what Cameron genuinely believes is the true position then logic suggests he rejects the debate.
@Neil What bets if any do you like in NI - I'm on Dodds at 4-9 but no others atm.
I dont see any outstanding value out there. I really hope the Unionist parties get what they deserve in Belfast East over the flegs debacle but sadly I think their appalling cynicism will probably pay off. I would have thought that Tom Elliot was reasonable value in Fermanagh and South Tyrone except for the fact that his party is probably the most incompetent electoral machine in these islands.
It will one hundred per cent pay off. Long's win was not a fluke, but a coordinated effort to punish Peter Robinson, including by loyalists. The casus belli is gone, the fleg reminds loyalists why they support unionist parties, and Long's time is up. I agree that betting on the Ulster Unionists to out-machine Sinn Féin is a brave errand. Foyle as discussed yesterday is certainly tight.
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
A conversation with my German colleagues today...expressing their concerns about Nicola Sturgeon!
LOL, are you trying to usurp Roger's crown, that is the best one yet.
Surely the rest of the world will be looking on in astonishment at a British Prime minister becoming a cheerleader for Scottish separatists. Why doesn't Miliband point this out? The Tories are no longer a party of Britain. Since the Tories can no longer have Britain they've decided to try and wreck it. Might not be 100% accurate but Labour need to come out fighting.
And when will someone in the media challenge Cameron. The Tories claim that Britain's nuclear deterrant is under threat if Labour get into power because of the SNP. But it wouldn't be if the Tories guaranteed to support it. Why should Cameron have to answer questions about hypotheticals in hung parliaments you ask? Well he's throwing them around so why not?
Where and when has David Cameron been a cheerleader for Scottish separtists?
That would, I think, be some kind of minority Cameron govt.
Those are almost exactly the SPIN numbers.
LAB + SNP + GRN + PC + SDLP vote him down. Not quite enough.
But would they really all combine to vote him down? When the Tories are clearly the largest party with the most votes?
The least anti-Tory party in that list is probably Labour.
It's irrelevant. I'll say it again, a bunch of cranks, Taffs, Nats and lefties immediately voting down the biggest party just cause they can is the one way to get Middle England all fired up at the resultant elex, ensuring a bigger Tory victory.
I can imagine Cameron's delight if they tried it.
Abother election within a few months would be in the Conservative interest, I would seek to implement English votes for English laws, perhaps constituency resizing as well, as my first act and dare them to block it.
I agree. Indeed I am sure Cameron would try and do precisely that: enact some populist, pro-Tory policy, that the Scots and lefties will feel obliged to vote down. Make it a confidence issue. = New election with bigger Tory vote.
An EU referendum, perhaps? It would get the UKIP vote back onside.
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
Same vibe I'm getting. Labour have to deal with this. But how?
If I were Miliband I'd say that "I would never do a deal with the SNP under any circumstances, nor rely on them for any votes to sustain my government."
In other words, I'd lie.
The narrative today has completely changed the GE and there is absolutely nothing Ed Miliband or labour can say or do (other than saying I agree with Nicola). The irony is that the wall to wall media coverage has created this story and all David Cameron and the conservatives needs t do is to pick up the narrative and make huge political gains out of it in RUK
Which is what I'm sure John Major will do tomorrow.
Which by one of those strange coincidences is exactly how he spent the final week of the 1992 campaign (denouncing Labour's devolutiun proposals) to seemingly great effect.
Hasn't Micheal Fosyth's intervention confused that line of attack.
I think Labour need to push the idea that both the SNP and Tories benefit from dividing the country and the union, and it's only Labour that will secure the union. That's the only line of attack that might have some potency.
Also they need Gordon Brown out in Scotland every day. He might be about as attractive as Ebola to English voters but he still carries weight north of the border.
As the English NHS has proven - thrice - Ebola is curable, albeit expensive, I'll call this one. The Edinborough Parish council is not curable: Simply filled (with the troupe of Jockanese clowns)
And extremely expensive to the English tax-bearing folk....
Of course Neill Blomkamp covered the unpopularity of African immigration in District 9. Elysium was about Mexican immigration into California. Like John Milius or Christopher Nolan conservatives sometimes are allowed to make a career in Hollywood.
Blomkamp: “Sure, I’m totally aware of that. … Unfortunately, that’s the reality of it, and it doesn’t matter how politically correct or politically incorrect you are. The bottom line is that there are huge Nigerian crime syndicates in Johannesburg. I wanted the film to feel real, to feel grounded, and I was going to incorporate as much of contemporary South Africa as I wanted to, and that’s just how it is.
“… I wanted these impoverished black citizens of South Africa to have this disdain for another group.
“… Another part of recent South African history that isn’t world news is that the collapse of Zimbabwe has introduced millions of illegal Zimbabwean immigrants into South African cities. … Now you have this powder-keg situation, with black against black … [W]e woke up one morning to find out that Johannesburg was eating itself alive. Impoverished South Africans had started murdering impoverished Zimbabweans, necklacing them and burning them and chopping them up.”
I begin to believe that the Tory campaign has given up.
Where are the policies, where are the announcements, where are the adverts? It's all SNP, SNP, SNP all day long from the Tories, even if it drives the SNP's popularity even higher, which is pointless since the SNP was going to get all scottish seats anyway.
Factor in that to some extent (and I am only saying to some extent) the Tories are a 'time for a change' party in Scotland because the Scottish government is SNP.
I begin to believe that the Tory campaign has given up.
Where are the policies, where are the announcements, where are the adverts? It's all SNP, SNP, SNP all day long from the Tories, even if it drives the SNP's popularity even higher, which is pointless since the SNP was going to get all scottish seats anyway.
Making the SNP the most popular party in Britain will not make the Tories win the election.
Wait! Don't be hasty. There are still plenty of UKIP policies that Cammo can pinch and claim as his.
Surely the rest of the world will be looking on in astonishment at a British Prime minister becoming a cheerleader for Scottish separatists. Why doesn't Miliband point this out? The Tories are no longer a party of Britain. Since the Tories can no longer have Britain they've decided to try and wreck it. Might not be 100% accurate but Labour need to come out fighting.
And when will someone in the media challenge Cameron. The Tories claim that Britain's nuclear deterrant is under threat if Labour get into power because of the SNP. But it wouldn't be if the Tories guaranteed to support it. Why should Cameron have to answer questions about hypotheticals in hung parliaments you ask? Well he's throwing them around so why not?
Where and when has David Cameron been a cheerleader for Scottish separtists?
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SNP seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
A conversation with my German colleagues today...expressing their concerns about Nicola Sturgeon!
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
A conversation with my German colleagues today...expressing their concerns about Nicola Sturgeon!
A post which really brings out my inner Jeremy Clarkson. Next time you see them could you whistle them the Dambusters March, from me?
Darren McCaffrey (@DMcCaffreySKY) 20/04/2015 19:14 NEW: Farage if PM: send Royal Navy to assist in Med, divert some foreign aid and Britain accept a few thousand, mainly Christian refugees.
Practising what he preaches, the first wave should be allowed to settle in South Thanet, Rochester and Clacton. And religion shouldn't be a bar to eligibility.
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
A conversation with my German colleagues today...expressing their concerns about Nicola Sturgeon!
She after Merkel's job too?
I am not at all surprised at Charles' EU colleagues asking the opinion of their very well informed British colleague about what probably appears to be sudden appearance on the nation British political stage of an apparently politically important newcomer.
That would, I think, be some kind of minority Cameron govt.
Those are almost exactly the SPIN numbers.
LAB + SNP + GRN + PC + SDLP vote him down. Not quite enough.
But would they really all combine to vote him down? When the Tories are clearly the largest party with the most votes?
The least anti-Tory party in that list is probably Labour.
It's irrelevant. I'll say it again, a bunch of cranks, Taffs, Nats and lefties immediately voting down the biggest party just cause they can is the one way to get Middle England all fired up at the resultant elex, ensuring a bigger Tory victory.
I can imagine Cameron's delight if they tried it.
Abother election within a few months would be in the Conservative interest, I would seek to implement English votes for English laws, perhaps constituency resizing as well, as my first act and dare them to block it.
Well, not so sure about that.
If Labour use the meantime to chop Ed’s head off, and replace him with ... someone a little more popular and authentic, then a second election might to Labour’s advantage.
Remember, Ed is a drag on his party.
Of course, this presupposes that Labour can find someone popular and authentic among their ranks -- which probably means skipping the generation tainted by Blair and Brown.
Incidentally, that is one of the reasons that the entire army of old MPs, the Nick Palmers, the Patrick Halls, the Joan Ryans, the David Drews, should not have been selected to run again. Labour badly need an infusion of fresh talent -- not the talent of 1997.
Burnley's run-in isn't too bad but we need that win, however lucky or scrappy to boost the confidence. After Leicester we have, West Ham (a), Hull (a), Stoke (h), Villa (a) - so teams with either little to play for, or in generally poor form. The problem we have is that there are only 2 homes matches in the last 5 games. If it goes to the last match of the season I hope Villa are safe and dreaming of Wembley!
I would quite like Burnley to stay up; and the run in does not look too fatal, though the goal drought is a concern. I am tipping Sunderland, Hull and QPR to go down.
Surely the rest of the world will be looking on in astonishment at a British Prime minister becoming a cheerleader for Scottish separatists. Why doesn't Miliband point this out? The Tories are no longer a party of Britain. Since the Tories can no longer have Britain they've decided to try and wreck it. Might not be 100% accurate but Labour need to come out fighting.
And when will someone in the media challenge Cameron. The Tories claim that Britain's nuclear deterrant is under threat if Labour get into power because of the SNP. But it wouldn't be if the Tories guaranteed to support it. Why should Cameron have to answer questions about hypotheticals in hung parliaments you ask? Well he's throwing them around so why not?
Where and when has David Cameron been a cheerleader for Scottish separtists?
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
A conversation with my German colleagues today...expressing their concerns about Nicola Sturgeon!
She after Merkel's job too?
I am not at all surprised at Charles' EU colleagues asking the opinion of their very well informed British colleague about what probably appears to be sudden appearance on the nation British political stage of an apparently politically important newcomer.
To be serious ( as I wasn't before) I'm not surprised either. She's hardly going to be well known in Duesseldorf, but they're probably picking up there may be a change of govt and this "unknown" woman is going to have serious clout.
Been out all day in Torbay. Beautiful sunny day - getting as brown as a berry.
The SNP are proving the Tories best recruiting sergeant. By a country mile. Spent the day canvassing previously identified waverers. The number of people who raised "that Nicola Sturgeon" unprompted was startling.
Blue nosepegs being re-ordered in bulk....
A conversation with my German colleagues today...expressing their concerns about Nicola Sturgeon!
Burnley's run-in isn't too bad but we need that win, however lucky or scrappy to boost the confidence. After Leicester we have, West Ham (a), Hull (a), Stoke (h), Villa (a) - so teams with either little to play for, or in generally poor form. The problem we have is that there are only 2 homes matches in the last 5 games. If it goes to the last match of the season I hope Villa are safe and dreaming of Wembley!
Surely the rest of the world will be looking on in astonishment at a British Prime minister becoming a cheerleader for Scottish separatists. Why doesn't Miliband point this out? The Tories are no longer a party of Britain. Since the Tories can no longer have Britain they've decided to try and wreck it. Might not be 100% accurate but Labour need to come out fighting.
And when will someone in the media challenge Cameron. The Tories claim that Britain's nuclear deterrant is under threat if Labour get into power because of the SNP. But it wouldn't be if the Tories guaranteed to support it. Why should Cameron have to answer questions about hypotheticals in hung parliaments you ask? Well he's throwing them around so why not?
Where and when has David Cameron been a cheerleader for Scottish separtists?
Surely the rest of the world will be looking on in astonishment at a British Prime minister becoming a cheerleader for Scottish separatists. Why doesn't Miliband point this out? The Tories are no longer a party of Britain. Since the Tories can no longer have Britain they've decided to try and wreck it. Might not be 100% accurate but Labour need to come out fighting.
And when will someone in the media challenge Cameron. The Tories claim that Britain's nuclear deterrant is under threat if Labour get into power because of the SNP. But it wouldn't be if the Tories guaranteed to support it. Why should Cameron have to answer questions about hypotheticals in hung parliaments you ask? Well he's throwing them around so why not?
Where and when has David Cameron been a cheerleader for Scottish separtists?
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
That would, I think, be some kind of minority Cameron govt.
Those are almost exactly the SPIN numbers.
LAB + SNP + GRN + PC + SDLP vote him down. Not quite enough.
But would they really all combine to vote him down? When the Tories are clearly the largest party with the most votes?
The least anti-Tory party in that list is probably Labour.
It's irrelevant. I'll say it again, a bunch of cranks, Taffs, Nats and lefties immediately voting down the biggest party just cause they can is the one way to get Middle England all fired up at the resultant elex, ensuring a bigger Tory victory.
I can imagine Cameron's delight if they tried it.
Abother election within a few months would be in the Conservative interest, I would seek to implement English votes for English laws, perhaps constituency resizing as well, as my first act and dare them to block it.
Well, not so sure about that.
If Labour use the meantime to chop Ed’s head off, and replace him with ... someone a little more popular and authentic, then a second election might to Labour’s advantage.
Remember, Ed is a drag on his party.
Of course, this presupposes that Labour can find someone popular and authentic among their ranks -- which probably means skipping the generation tainted by Blair and Brown.
Incidentally, that is one of the reasons that the entire army of old MPs, the Nick Palmers, the Patrick Halls, the Joan Ryans, the David Drews, should not have been selected to run again. Labour badly need an infusion of fresh talent -- not the talent of 1997.
Not convinced there is a better leader. Feel good factor filtering further into the economy will benefit the governing party. No choice, a minority with the likely numbers would be a nightmare anyway (applies to Labour too). Conservatives have a very workable majority excluding Scotland.
"Although the new poll suggests that Labour has only advanced two points across Great Britain since Gordon Brown’s defeat in 2010, Ed Miliband will be pleased that his party has advanced somewhat more – by four points – in the English and Welsh battleground seats. In these constituencies – which went Tory by no more than 15 points last time, or Labour by no more than 10 – the Conservatives remain where they were five years ago, on 38%, while Labour advances four, from 36% to 40%."
Darren McCaffrey (@DMcCaffreySKY) 20/04/2015 19:14 NEW: Farage if PM: send Royal Navy to assist in Med, divert some foreign aid and Britain accept a few thousand, mainly Christian refugees.
Practising what he preaches, the first wave should be allowed to settle in South Thanet, Rochester and Clacton. And religion shouldn't be a bar to eligibility.
Christians should get priority as refugees from Syria and Iraq. They are the least likely to be able to safely return to their country of origin.
That would, I think, be some kind of minority Cameron govt.
Nope, not on those numbers - Con + LD need at least 5 more.
Observe the sons of Ulster, marching to the Line.
I am !
Con + LD = 309 Con + LD + DP = 318 Con + LD + DUP + ND = 319 Con + DUP + LD + ND + ?!SDLP!?! = 322.
SDLP is pushing the boat far out into the water never to return tbh.
The only way this gets in is if Labour (Not the SNP) abstain. It could be suicide for Labour if they do, might be suicide if they don't -mind.
See my post downthread.
I don't believe all the minor parties (SNP, PC, Green, SDLP) would unite with Labour to bring down a minority Tory government which clearly had most votes and most seats, at least not for a couple of years.
If they did the English would react very badly, and return a stronger Tory vote at the ensuing election.
It's Labour [or more pertinently, some of their backbenchers] that might not vote that down. Half the PLP can't stand Miliband and advancing c. 10 seats in the most propitious possible circumstances (being the only main party of opposition for 5 years) is not a good result.
The greybeards had no time for a fanciful rainbow last time and they may well calculate that they are best served by getting rid of Ed and trying again in 12 months time.
Expect a lot of tactical voting against the SNP in Gordon, where Alex Salmond is standing and his main opponent is LD candidate Christine Jardine.
Christine Jardine is certainly chasing tactical votes, however not all parties are playing ball, see quote below from the Tory candidate:
"Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote. "Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else. Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies".
There is at least one Tory who is planning on voting for SLAB in my constituency, Stirling, given that SLAB and the Tories are most likely level pegging for second, this seems to be a brave move on his part:
Burnley's run-in isn't too bad but we need that win, however lucky or scrappy to boost the confidence. After Leicester we have, West Ham (a), Hull (a), Stoke (h), Villa (a) - so teams with either little to play for, or in generally poor form. The problem we have is that there are only 2 homes matches in the last 5 games. If it goes to the last match of the season I hope Villa are safe and dreaming of Wembley!
I would quite like Burnley to stay up ....
OGH's new best friend .... Crawler ....
Partly it is because I dislike QPR; but also we will need some points next year ;-)
I begin to believe that the Tory campaign has given up.
Where are the policies, where are the announcements, where are the adverts? It's all SNP, SNP, SNP all day long from the Tories, even if it drives the SNP's popularity even higher, which is pointless since the SNP was going to get all scottish seats anyway.
Making the SNP the most popular party in Britain will not make the Tories win the election.
Wait! Don't be hasty. There are still plenty of UKIP policies that Cammo can pinch and claim as his.
The Tories are only interested in the SNP, so if UKIP has any SNP policies they might be interested.
Peter Hitchens led with that story in his Sunday column.. I mentioned it but @Dair called me racist for doing so... #leftthink
Voyeuristic, torture porn for the Daily Mail brigade to go alongside teenage girls in skimpy bikinis. The Daily Mail website is a disgrace. Sickening, ugly and plays to to the worst kind of human nature.
Darren McCaffrey (@DMcCaffreySKY) 20/04/2015 19:14 NEW: Farage if PM: send Royal Navy to assist in Med, divert some foreign aid and Britain accept a few thousand, mainly Christian refugees.
Practising what he preaches, the first wave should be allowed to settle in South Thanet, Rochester and Clacton. And religion shouldn't be a bar to eligibility.
My personal idea would be to house refugees only in the very richest parts of the country.
Its the friction between poor people that causes disharmony not their skin colour, that is a side effect. Put them all in with the top 1%
And as for the religion, of course we should take Christians first.. they are the persecuted of the middle east with nowhere to go
I begin to believe that the Tory campaign has given up.
Where are the policies, where are the announcements, where are the adverts? It's all SNP, SNP, SNP all day long from the Tories, even if it drives the SNP's popularity even higher, which is pointless since the SNP was going to get all scottish seats anyway.
Making the SNP the most popular party in Britain will not make the Tories win the election.
Wait! Don't be hasty. There are still plenty of UKIP policies that Cammo can pinch and claim as his.
The Tories are only interested in the SNP, so if UKIP has any SNP policies they might be interested.
The Tories keeping the SNP at the centre of the campaign has several advantages:
1) it may GOTV particularly in the South with soft blues and wavering kippers
2) it supports Ruth Davidson as the main effective opposition to the SNP in Scotland. There are a lot of the 55% NO voters that can be won over.
3) it puts Labour on the back foot and threatens a split with SLAB
4) it keeps other parties and agendas well down the pecking order, particularly UKIP and the LD.
Peter Hitchens led with that story in his Sunday column.. I mentioned it but @Dair called me racist for doing so... #leftthink
Voyeuristic, torture porn for the Daily Mail brigade to go alongside teenage girls in skimpy bikinis. The Daily Mail website is a disgrace. Sickening, ugly and plays to to the worst kind of human nature.
The apparently divergent polls may not be at all. They're all explicable by a narrow Conservative lead of around 1-2%.
This does not mean the polls are right. The article this morning was right to highlight UKIP as one of the major unknown factors in this situation. Not only is there a wide range for UKIP support amongst polling companies there is also a considerable problem surrounding certainty to vote amongst them. Amongst much talk of 'shy tories' reappearing the equally possible 'shy UKIP' needs to be borne in mind. Vociferous they may appear but how many others do they have prepared to vote for them without admitting it?
My opinion is that notwithstanding the support of the Daily Express on polling day the 'wasted vote' argument will be very strong come May 7 and the Conservative position is, accordingly, being underestimated in the polls.
If Jack W's intelligence from the senior Con source is right then in my view Cameron absolutely should not go for a head to head debate with Miliband.
20 losses to Lab 6 gains from LD in the bag 10 further gains from LD too close to call
Assume they get half of the too close to call.
That means a net loss of 9 seats + Clacton = 10 seats down on 2010
Which gives them 297 inc Speaker.
That is enough for Cameron to remain PM. And the intelligence suggests continued seepage back from UKIP which should help at the margin.
If I was Cameron I would hold my nerve. Plus the debate with Miliband has risk attached - not just in itself but the media will play it up as Cameron panicking.
There are 10 CON seats that are Labour targets in London only and all but Enfield Southgate seems to be a hit for Labour based on the constituency polls, so that leaves just 11 more gains for Labour somewhere in the 500 seats ex-London&Scotland for the "senior conservative source" to be accurate.
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
I've seen no London poll which gives 10 Labour gains from the Tories.
're the SON seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
So you haven't? Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43 CON 41 LD 6 UKIP 6 GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43 CON 39 UKIP 9 LD 6 GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40 CON 34 LD 11 GRN 7 UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41 CON 37 UKIP 13 GRN 5 LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here. All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red. With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
I see 8 in Labour talk really means 9, maybe. London will be good for Labour, but not enough. Otherwise they wouldn't be in such a panic over Scotland.
Please, please take a positon on Betfair for the Libs in Gordon. Then I shall very gladly take your money. On Saturday I was part of my first ever political canvass since I was a student. I spent the time with some nice young students from Aberdeen University. We were canvassing Inverurie with a survey card which allowed people to tick the appropriate box and their second preferences.
On our canvass Salmond is running at 55 per cent in that town which is the heart of the Gordon constituency. The rest were pretty close together with the Tories marginally ahead of the Liberals. Most Liberals indeed have the Tory as second preference. But most Tories would give NO second preference. Just about all Labour actually have Salmond as their second preference!
In any case at that sort of level it won't matter even if the rest can combine. That is why John N you should go ahead, put your money down and make my day.
@Neil What bets if any do you like in NI - I'm on Dodds at 4-9 but no others atm.
I dont see any outstanding value out there. I really hope the Unionist parties get what they deserve in Belfast East over the flegs debacle but sadly I think their appalling cynicism will probably pay off. I would have thought that Tom Elliot was reasonable value in Fermanagh and South Tyrone except for the fact that his party is probably the most incompetent electoral machine in these islands.
The fun could be North Down - lots of candidates all drawing off the same pool of voters and Lady S maybe not as popular as she thinks. The DUP didn't stand aginst he last time so her majority flatters.
Just after I pressed post I thought exactly that. It helps that Paddy Power is offering odds on any other candidate (I would have thought Alex Easton was the greatest threat but 8/1 on any other candidate isnt too shabby).
It is a two-horse race between Hermon and Easton, but the 2010 Ucunf vote (seven thousand) will surely go to her in the absence of a UUP candidate. The DUP vote here has been about twelve thousand throughout the most recent realignment of politics.So I see the baseline as being, roughly, 2005 (16 versus 11 thousand). A lot of the Alliance/Green vote would have been UUP-minded once upon a time, and a few thousand of their voters vote tactically at Westminster.
I begin to believe that the Tory campaign has given up.
Where are the policies, where are the announcements, where are the adverts? It's all SNP, SNP, SNP all day long from the Tories, even if it drives the SNP's popularity even higher, which is pointless since the SNP was going to get all scottish seats anyway.
Making the SNP the most popular party in Britain will not make the Tories win the election.
Wait! Don't be hasty. There are still plenty of UKIP policies that Cammo can pinch and claim as his.
The Tories are only interested in the SNP, so if UKIP has any SNP policies they might be interested.
The Tories keeping the SNP at the centre of the campaign has several advantages:
1) it may GOTV particularly in the South with soft blues and wavering kippers
2) it supports Ruth Davison as the main effective opposition to the SNP. There are a lot of the 55% NO voters that can be won over.
3) it puts Labour on the back foot and threatens a split with SLAB
4) it keeps other parties and agendas well down the pecking order, particularly UKIP and the LD.
Tory surge in scotland then. Yawn.
The Tory strategy has several disadvantages:
1.It leaves all other parties free to talk about what most people care about.
2.The Tories have nothing else to talk about.
3.What is the Tory party for or against, apart from being anti-SNP?
In conclusion, the Tory party is in danger of being a single issue party.
Peter Hitchens led with that story in his Sunday column.. I mentioned it but @Dair called me racist for doing so... #leftthink
Voyeuristic, torture porn for the Daily Mail brigade to go alongside teenage girls in skimpy bikinis. The Daily Mail website is a disgrace. Sickening, ugly and plays to to the worst kind of human nature.
Comments
LAB + SNP + GRN + PC + SDLP vote him down. Not quite enough.
Con + LD = 309
Con + LD + DP = 318
Con + LD + DUP + ND = 319
Con + DUP + LD + ND + ?!SDLP!?! = 322.
SDLP is pushing the boat far out into the water never to return tbh.
The only way this gets in is if Labour (Not the SNP) abstain. It could be suicide for Labour if they do, might be suicide if they don't -mind.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/sturgeon-unveils-manifesto-for-undiscovered-planets-2015042097502
Again, partisan anecdotal evidence is not the best kind when you disagree with opinion polls.
Mind you Sinn Fein could make help the Tories out in Foyle.
I am merely saying that IF, and I emphasise IF, Con truly believe that is the true position then they shouldn't do the debate.
If they've mis-assessed the situation then they'll be taking the decision based on incorrect information - in which case they obviously may take the wrong decision.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·5 mins5 minutes ago
The Tories are just running a scorched earth campaign now, aren't they? Desperate to win, even if that means fuelling the break-up of the UK
Where are the policies, where are the announcements, where are the adverts?
It's all SNP, SNP, SNP all day long from the Tories, even if it drives the SNP's popularity even higher, which is pointless since the SNP was going to get all scottish seats anyway.
Making the SNP the most popular party in Britain will not make the Tories win the election.
And when will someone in the media challenge Cameron. The Tories claim that Britain's nuclear deterrant is under threat if Labour get into power because of the SNP. But it wouldn't be if the Tories guaranteed to support it. Why should Cameron have to answer questions about hypotheticals in hung parliaments you ask? Well he's throwing them around so why not?
What a way to entice the likes of @DavidL for his vote though.
http://news.sky.com/story/1468751/cameron-defends-tory-alliance-with-snp
It's so peripheral, that the only thing Labour would have to do is point that " if the Tories say the SNP is the devil, then why did the Tories supported a minority SNP government?"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3046924/Butchered-street-begged-mercy-Savage-moments-Mozambican-man-bled-death-gutter-victim-South-African-anti-immigrant-violence.html
But, really, I just find it incredible the ease with which the SNP have outflanked Labour.
Any or all the Welsh Labour MPs could have said they want funding parity with Scotland. None of them have.
I do expect Welsh MPs to fight for Wales (just as I expect Cornish MPs to fight for Cornwall or Northern MPs to fight for North of England).
I don’t expect Nicola Sturgeon to fight for Wales, I expect her to fight for Scotland. But Nicola has actually been more pugnacious that the entire dismal phalanx of Welsh Labour MPs
If Welsh Labour MPs don’t fight for Wales (and the Hains and the Bryants have a pretty dismal record), then I think, and I hope, they will ultimately go the same way as SLAB.
My only regret is letting some profoundly ungrateful people into the loop, but you live and learn
(That and the fact that I didn't back many of them myself as was skint at the time!)
And extremely expensive to the English tax-bearing folk....
20/04/2015 19:14
NEW: Farage if PM: send Royal Navy to assist in Med, divert some foreign aid and Britain accept a few thousand, mainly Christian refugees.
Forsyth warns the Tories.
Just coronate him.
I would presume as soon as people hear that their choice is Italy or the UK, there would be a huge temporarily conversion to Christianity.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/snp-manifesto-5-plans-benefits-5555121
'SNP manifesto: 5 plans for benefits other parties should absolutely listen to'
Presumably the rUK edition of the DM as it would be the Record if it were in Scotland?
Presuming Cameron himself will take the decision re the debate then what matters is what Cameron thinks - that is what will determine his decision.
Of course he may not trust the intelligence per Jack W's earlier post - he may think it's wishful thinking and that the true Con position is worse.
We don't know either way. The only purpose of my post was to say that IF that is what Cameron genuinely believes is the true position then logic suggests he rejects the debate.
Blomkamp: “Sure, I’m totally aware of that. … Unfortunately, that’s the reality of it, and it doesn’t matter how politically correct or politically incorrect you are. The bottom line is that there are huge Nigerian crime syndicates in Johannesburg. I wanted the film to feel real, to feel grounded, and I was going to incorporate as much of contemporary South Africa as I wanted to, and that’s just how it is.
“… I wanted these impoverished black citizens of South Africa to have this disdain for another group.
“… Another part of recent South African history that isn’t world news is that the collapse of Zimbabwe has introduced millions of illegal Zimbabwean immigrants into South African cities. … Now you have this powder-keg situation, with black against black … [W]e woke up one morning to find out that Johannesburg was eating itself alive. Impoverished South Africans had started murdering impoverished Zimbabweans, necklacing them and burning them and chopping them up.”
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/20/tories-playing-dangerous-game-scotland-lord-forsyth
're the SNP seems like Labour are seriously rattled.
If Labour use the meantime to chop Ed’s head off, and replace him with ... someone a little more popular and authentic, then a second election might to Labour’s advantage.
Remember, Ed is a drag on his party.
Of course, this presupposes that Labour can find someone popular and authentic among their ranks -- which probably means skipping the generation tainted by Blair and Brown.
Incidentally, that is one of the reasons that the entire army of old MPs, the Nick Palmers, the Patrick Halls, the Joan Ryans, the David Drews, should not have been selected to run again. Labour badly need an infusion of fresh talent -- not the talent of 1997.
More SNP MPs = Less legitimate PM Ed if it comes about in England
More SNP chatter = More UKIP -> Con switch backers.
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/590166530480021504
HE NEEDS TORY TACTICALS TO HOLD HIS SEAT
lol
and now suddenly he has statesmanlike insight.
chortle etc.
Perfect, let me start with some fresh Ashcroft polls:
Finchley, Tory Majority 12.3%:
LAB 43
CON 41
LD 6
UKIP 6
GRN 4
Swing 7% to LAB
Harrow E, Tory Majority 7.1%:
LAB 43
CON 39
UKIP 9
LD 6
GRN 2
Swing 5.5% to LAB
Here are some not so fresh LordA polls:
Ealing Central, Tory Maj. 7.9%:
LAB 40
CON 34
LD 11
GRN 7
UKIP 6
Swing 7% to LAB
Croydon Central, Tory Maj, 5.8%:
LAB 41
CON 37
UKIP 13
GRN 5
LD 3
Swing 5% to LAB
And I have another 4 polls of Enfield N, Brentford, Hendon, and Uxbridge, but don't have enough space here.
All showing large Labour swings and all but Uxbridge (which is not a Labour target) going red.
With those kings of swings only Enfield Southgate will be a Labour miss from their target list in London.
Not.
Feel good factor filtering further into the economy will benefit the governing party.
No choice, a minority with the likely numbers would be a nightmare anyway (applies to Labour too).
Conservatives have a very workable majority excluding Scotland.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/20/tories-still-ahead-labour-latest-guardian-icm-poll
The greybeards had no time for a fanciful rainbow last time and they may well calculate that they are best served by getting rid of Ed and trying again in 12 months time.
Finger pointing and raised voice from the former. The latter is a very good interviewer.
"Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote. "Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else. Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies".
There is at least one Tory who is planning on voting for SLAB in my constituency, Stirling, given that SLAB and the Tories are most likely level pegging for second, this seems to be a brave move on his part:
https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f
The Daily Mail website is a disgrace. Sickening, ugly and plays to to the worst kind of human nature.
Its the friction between poor people that causes disharmony not their skin colour, that is a side effect. Put them all in with the top 1%
And as for the religion, of course we should take Christians first.. they are the persecuted of the middle east with nowhere to go
"If Cameron loses it'll be Death of a Political Salesman"
1) it may GOTV particularly in the South with soft blues and wavering kippers
2) it supports Ruth Davidson as the main effective opposition to the SNP in Scotland. There are a lot of the 55% NO voters that can be won over.
3) it puts Labour on the back foot and threatens a split with SLAB
4) it keeps other parties and agendas well down the pecking order, particularly UKIP and the LD.
This does not mean the polls are right. The article this morning was right to highlight UKIP as one of the major unknown factors in this situation. Not only is there a wide range for UKIP support amongst polling companies there is also a considerable problem surrounding certainty to vote amongst them. Amongst much talk of 'shy tories' reappearing the equally possible 'shy UKIP' needs to be borne in mind. Vociferous they may appear but how many others do they have prepared to vote for them without admitting it?
My opinion is that notwithstanding the support of the Daily Express on polling day the 'wasted vote' argument will be very strong come May 7 and the Conservative position is, accordingly, being underestimated in the polls.
There will only be one way to find out.
Please, please take a positon on Betfair for the Libs in Gordon. Then I shall very gladly take your money. On Saturday I was part of my first ever political canvass since I was a student. I spent the time with some nice young students from Aberdeen University. We were canvassing Inverurie with a survey card which allowed people to tick the appropriate box and their second preferences.
On our canvass Salmond is running at 55 per cent in that town which is the heart of the Gordon constituency. The rest were pretty close together with the Tories marginally ahead of the Liberals. Most Liberals indeed have the Tory as second preference. But most Tories would give NO second preference. Just about all Labour actually have Salmond as their second preference!
In any case at that sort of level it won't matter even if the rest can combine. That is why John N you should go ahead, put your money down and make my day.
Yawn.
The Tory strategy has several disadvantages:
1.It leaves all other parties free to talk about what most people care about.
2.The Tories have nothing else to talk about.
3.What is the Tory party for or against, apart from being anti-SNP?
In conclusion, the Tory party is in danger of being a single issue party.