politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage the 13/8 betting favourite to “win” tonight’s Challengers’ Debate
It is perhaps an indication of how tonight’s event is being regarded is that there is going to be very little polling. Survation are doing a survey for the Mirror and as far as I know at the moment that is it.
It's sad that Cameron isn't in the debate tonight. Should be there. Daft to step out.
Another 7 way? Not for me. I think the balance of programmes has been quite reasonable and a good deal better than it might have been. It's just a shame that no-one's got much to say.
It's sad that Cameron isn't in the debate tonight. Should be there. Daft to step out.
I wonder if the debates negotiations will be a repeat of the Alternative Vote referendum. The Conservatives performed very well in getting a tactical victory, but it ultimately proved a strategic mistake.
It's sad that Cameron isn't in the debate tonight. Should be there. Daft to step out.
I don't worry much about tonight. Turning down the head-to-head debate with Miliband would have been the best chance of a gamechanger. With the polls stuck, that's looking the biggest mistake. Debates like tonight are a snooze fest with too many voices saying nothing at all.
AV is the worst electoral system ever devised by man. Winning that referendum was a National necessity, Country before Party, as always.
Agreed. I'm now in favour of STV. Not so much because I'm a Ukip supporter, but because I don't think it's good for a regional party like the SNP to benefit unfairly from FPTP.
AV is the worst electoral system ever devised by man. Winning that referendum was a National necessity, Country before Party, as always.
It's not as good as multi-member single transferable vote, but I think it's a lot better than First Past the Post. A good electoral system should encourage you to vote for those most representing your own views, rather than encourage you to vote tactically for the least worst of the two leaders.
I would love to see Farage go claws out for Ed. Rotherham, Janner, Mirror phone-hacking double-standards - whatever it takes to make Ed really, really lose it....
UKIP need to get Labour's contemptuous treatment of it heartlands into play.
I would love to see Farage go claws out for Ed. Rotherham, Janner, Mirror phone-hacking double-standards - whatever it takes to make Ed really, really lose it....
UKIP need to get Labour's contemptuous treatment of it heartlands into play.
AV is the worst electoral system ever devised by man. Winning that referendum was a National necessity, Country before Party, as always.
Agreed. I'm now in favour of STV. Not so much because I'm a Ukip supporter, but because I don't think it's good for a regional party like the SNP to benefit unfairly from FPTP.
Or like the Tories. They're a regional party too, to all intents and purposes, and benefit hugely from FPTP.
AV is the worst electoral system ever devised by man. Winning that referendum was a National necessity, Country before Party, as always.
It's not as good as multi-member single transferable vote, but I think it's a lot better than First Past the Post. A good electoral system should encourage you to vote for those most representing your own views, rather than encourage you to vote tactically for the least worst of the two leaders.
Except we vote for our local MP, not for the party leaders (unless you are (un?)lucky enough to live in their constituencies. That should be an important consideration, but sadly is not.
And I am against any system that gives more power to the parties.
Just spoken to fox jr in Norwich South. He reckons 60/40 in favour of Labour over greens in terms of window posters. Seen a single LD one and a single Tory one. No UKIP.
12-1 on Ed giving us reprise of "Hell Yes" which could prove to be his catchphrase gimmick,a bit like Brucie with "what do points make? Prizes".Hell Yes.
AV is the worst electoral system ever devised by man. Winning that referendum was a National necessity, Country before Party, as always.
Agreed. I'm now in favour of STV. Not so much because I'm a Ukip supporter, but because I don't think it's good for a regional party like the SNP to benefit unfairly from FPTP.
Or like the Tories. They're a regional party too, to all intents and purposes, and benefit hugely from FPTP.
At least the Tories put up candidates in Scotland and get some votes. Perhaps the SNP should stand in England - by the sounds of it they may get a few votes.
The lowering of expectations is in full flow. All Miliband has to do is step up to the podium without tripping over and he will have had an impressive night.
Doubt the others will gang up on him as others have forecast. More likely to take the usual 'progressive alliance' crap and gang up on our Nige.
12-1 on Ed giving us reprise of "Hell Yes" which could prove to be his catchphrase gimmick,a bit like Brucie with "what do points make? Prizes".Hell Yes.
I thought "Hell yes" worth a quid; and also a couple on "Romanians". If Nigel doesn't say it then one of the others may bait him with it.
As a sign of how divorced the pb commentariat are from the rest of the country, I was just talking with one of my more senior partners (very switched on, very broad hinterland beyond her job) and mentioned in passing that there was another debate tonight.
"Is there?", she said.
It doesn't count cos Dave refused to turn up!
Don't say he was scared of defending his record though.. "scared" is on the PBPC naughty list regardless of it's context
Sam, this forces me to repeat the question I asked earlier: is our deal still on?
Didn't see the earlier question and I don't like deals like that really so I am forgetting about it. You say too much that annoys me to let go!
That's sad. It was probably to the benefit of PB that we ignore each other ...
Dan Hodges on Sky News is predicting a car crash for Ed.
There's a Fayed/Prince Philip/MI6 gag in there somewhere if anyone has a bit more imagination than I currently possess.
Anyway, evening all. I won't be watching the debatette as I've got another 3 hours at the pleasure of First Great Western before I reach Penzance... whilst the newly-installed FGW wifi won't allow me to stream TV (the bandwidth is almost as thin as the business case for reprivatising East Coast) it should enable me to keep abreast of PB's objective commentary. It's almost as good as being there.
Wiltshire and Somerset are surprisingly pretty in early evening April sunshine. Hell, yes.
Interesting that in the profile on Ed Fraser Nelson said the thing about him is that he's a thoroughly decent person.
That's a very important thing in my opinion and quite a dividing line with Dave who I doubt many would say that about
I know people who have met the Chancellor and say that he is a thoroughly decent person and an all around good man. He keeps his family out of politics, doesn't try and be something he is not by eating pasties or bacon sandwiches and apparently he does listen to outside ideas.
I would love to see Farage go claws out for Ed. Rotherham, Janner, Mirror phone-hacking double-standards - whatever it takes to make Ed really, really lose it....
UKIP need to get Labour's contemptuous treatment of it heartlands into play.
Everyone will be play acting. They will all care care care and care again etc...
AV is the worst electoral system ever devised by man. Winning that referendum was a National necessity, Country before Party, as always.
It's not as good as multi-member single transferable vote, but I think it's a lot better than First Past the Post. A good electoral system should encourage you to vote for those most representing your own views, rather than encourage you to vote tactically for the least worst of the two leaders.
Except we vote for our local MP, not for the party leaders (unless you are (un?)lucky enough to live in their constituencies. That should be an important consideration, but sadly is not.
And I am against any system that gives more power to the parties.
My view exactly. Any system that tries to introduce 'fairness' for parties is simply handing them more power and we should be trying to find ways to decrease their power not increase it. I am all for trying to make the votes within constituencies fairer with transferable votes but not at the cost of giving more power to parties nor removing the constituency link.
AV is the worst electoral system ever devised by man. Winning that referendum was a National necessity, Country before Party, as always.
It's not as good as multi-member single transferable vote, but I think it's a lot better than First Past the Post. A good electoral system should encourage you to vote for those most representing your own views, rather than encourage you to vote tactically for the least worst of the two leaders.
Except we vote for our local MP, not for the party leaders (unless you are (un?)lucky enough to live in their constituencies. That should be an important consideration, but sadly is not.
And I am against any system that gives more power to the parties.
My view exactly. Any system that tries to introduce 'fairness' for parties is simply handing them more power and we should be trying to find ways to decrease their power not increase it. I am all for trying to make the votes within constituencies fairer with transferable votes but not at the cost of giving more power to parties nor removing the constituency link.
Somewhere on the way in order to do this you have to create constituencies. How fair to anyone are the constituency boundaries and the rules that create them. (Bearing in mind the basis is local govt which is a mess.)
Everyone but Nigel wants to reduce the deficit by increasing spending. Okay then. That makes a lot of sense. Honestly it is a joke, how can people take politicians seriously when one minute they say they want to cut the deficit and reduce the debt burden, but then in the very next sentence talk about increasing spending. Surely I can't be the only one to notice this.
Everyone but Nigel wants to reduce the deficit by increasing spending. Okay then. That makes a lot of sense. Honestly it is a joke, how can people take politicians seriously when one minute they say they want to cut the deficit and reduce the debt burden, but then in the very next sentence talk about increasing spending. Surely I can't be the only one to notice this.
AV is the worst electoral system ever devised by man. Winning that referendum was a National necessity, Country before Party, as always.
It's not as good as multi-member single transferable vote, but I think it's a lot better than First Past the Post. A good electoral system should encourage you to vote for those most representing your own views, rather than encourage you to vote tactically for the least worst of the two leaders.
Except we vote for our local MP, not for the party leaders (unless you are (un?)lucky enough to live in their constituencies. That should be an important consideration, but sadly is not.
And I am against any system that gives more power to the parties.
My view exactly. Any system that tries to introduce 'fairness' for parties is simply handing them more power and we should be trying to find ways to decrease their power not increase it. I am all for trying to make the votes within constituencies fairer with transferable votes but not at the cost of giving more power to parties nor removing the constituency link.
Somewhere on the way in order to do this you have to create constituencies. How fair to anyone are the constituency boundaries and the rules that create them. (Bearing in mind the basis is local govt which is a mess.)
I agree with you (please don't fall off a chair :-) ). I think there should be a complete overhaul of the boundaries as was proposed at the beginning of this Parliament or even more so. But it should be done with a weather eye to the principle of individual constituency representatives rather than party 'fairness'.
Everyone but Nigel wants to reduce the deficit by increasing spending. Okay then. That makes a lot of sense. Honestly it is a joke, how can people take politicians seriously when one minute they say they want to cut the deficit and reduce the debt burden, but then in the very next sentence talk about increasing spending. Surely I can't be the only one to notice this.
Surely they are talking about increasing spending only in select areas. It is perfectly possible to do that and reduce the deficit, but you will probably have to decrease spending elsewhere.
Ed seems quite alive and engaging with the debate (rather than the staccato soundbites he threw out last time), but I fear his message just isn't clear/attractive enough.
Everyone but Nigel wants to reduce the deficit by increasing spending. Okay then. That makes a lot of sense. Honestly it is a joke, how can people take politicians seriously when one minute they say they want to cut the deficit and reduce the debt burden, but then in the very next sentence talk about increasing spending. Surely I can't be the only one to notice this.
TBF: there is an active Keynesian view - espoused by @Socrates among others - that claims that cutting the deficit is best achieved through growing the economy. And that growing the economy requires increased government spending.
All Miliband is doing by slating Farage's economic plans as on a par with Cameron's is elevating Farage's plans as Cameron and Co are trusted more on the economy.
Ed seems quite alive and engaging with the debate (rather than the staccato soundbites he threw out last time), but I fear his message just isn't clear/attractive enough.
First time the worm on the BBC moves is when Sturgeon attacks Cameron for not being there. Note no mention of Clegg. The Libdems are in danger if being entirely forgotten about....
Dear me - Jo Brand in the PEB on C4 - "the NHS won't last another 5yrs under them because they're planning EXTREME CUTS"
I presume it was recorded before the Tories found the magic money tree around the back of #10 and promised £8bn extra.
It may just reflect realistic expectations: many Tory supporters may hope and expect that they are lying, because it's an unfunded deficit increasing last-minute (etc. etc.) pledge; many Tory opponents fear and expect they're lying because it's an unfunded desperate last minute pledge, and of course lying about the NHS is what the Tories do in election campaigns.
Everyone but Nigel wants to reduce the deficit by increasing spending. Okay then. That makes a lot of sense. Honestly it is a joke, how can people take politicians seriously when one minute they say they want to cut the deficit and reduce the debt burden, but then in the very next sentence talk about increasing spending. Surely I can't be the only one to notice this.
Keynes showed why.
Keynes said to run a surplus when the economy was growing so as to be able to run a deficit when the economy in recession.
AV is the worst electoral system ever devised by man. Winning that referendum was a National necessity, Country before Party, as always.
It's not as good as multi-member single transferable vote, but I think it's a lot better than First Past the Post. A good electoral system should encourage you to vote for those most representing your own views, rather than encourage you to vote tactically for the least worst of the two leaders.
Except we vote for our local MP, not for the party leaders (unless you are (un?)lucky enough to live in their constituencies. That should be an important consideration, but sadly is not.
And I am against any system that gives more power to the parties.
My view exactly. Any system that tries to introduce 'fairness' for parties is simply handing them more power and we should be trying to find ways to decrease their power not increase it. I am all for trying to make the votes within constituencies fairer with transferable votes but not at the cost of giving more power to parties nor removing the constituency link.
Somewhere on the way in order to do this you have to create constituencies. How fair to anyone are the constituency boundaries and the rules that create them. (Bearing in mind the basis is local govt which is a mess.)
I agree with you (please don't fall off a chair :-) ). I think there should be a complete overhaul of the boundaries as was proposed at the beginning of this Parliament or even more so. But it should be done with a weather eye to the principle of individual constituency representatives rather than party 'fairness'.
What's "representative" about a constituency MP, when at the past two elections (and probably this one), the majority of voters didn't get one they voted for?
Everyone but Nigel wants to reduce the deficit by increasing spending. Okay then. That makes a lot of sense. Honestly it is a joke, how can people take politicians seriously when one minute they say they want to cut the deficit and reduce the debt burden, but then in the very next sentence talk about increasing spending. Surely I can't be the only one to notice this.
Keynes showed why.
No he didn't. Keynes categorically never supported increasing all spending all the time.
Keynes backed countercyclical spending which we have. The country is currently growing at out long term growth rate so we are in the boom part of our cycle, we should be saving for the next recession. Instead we're running a major deficit during a boom - Keynes would never have suggested increasing spending now.
Everyone but Nigel wants to reduce the deficit by increasing spending. Okay then. That makes a lot of sense. Honestly it is a joke, how can people take politicians seriously when one minute they say they want to cut the deficit and reduce the debt burden, but then in the very next sentence talk about increasing spending. Surely I can't be the only one to notice this.
Keynes showed why.
No. He. Didn't.
This country is not going to magically grow at 2% above trend rate because of a bit of extra spending on benefits. There is no point in spending to increase economic capacity when we already such low productivity, it would just cause long term deflation or stagflation. Keynes works in a post-war setting where the economic base is very low and we need rapid expansion of infrastructure and services. In a steady state economy like ours it is just going to blow the budget for possibly 0.5% GDP growth because it will all get pissed away in benefits and welfare.
Question, do you honestly believe that the UK has the capacity to grow at 4-5% every year on a volume measure at market price, with nominal growth at 6-7%? I don't ever see that with our without fiscal stimulus. Keynes only works to reduce debt levels and the deficit when there is a low base. We don't have a low base. We have a very high base, some would say we are about to head into the end of the current cycle, I just hope the economy is well prepared enough to withstand another shock. We should at least go into a normal crisis with a small housing crash and services downturn. There is little else to strip away.
I don't think EdM is winning against Ms Sturgeon, at all. Ms Greenies has cornered him as well. I can see her picking up the lefty votes floating about.
Comments
@LadPolitics: We're 30 minutes to kick-off. They've all warmed up and are ready to go. Bet here http://t.co/KLuaM5kO7m #BBCDebate http://t.co/rtkLLPKo9d
AV is the worst electoral system ever devised by man. Winning that referendum was a National necessity, Country before Party, as always.
Last chance to enter your predictions in the PB 2015 seat guessing game. Entries will close AFTER the debate tonight.
http://show.nojam.com/a2sq/add.php
UKIP need to get Labour's contemptuous treatment of it heartlands into play.
You are wrong.
But that's OK. Please read 3 years worth of back posts on this subject for more info...
And I am against any system that gives more power to the parties.
Fox poster survey verdict: Lab gain by a whisker.
Doubt the others will gang up on him as others have forecast. More likely to take the usual 'progressive alliance' crap and gang up on our Nige.
That's a very important thing in my opinion and quite a dividing line with Dave who I doubt many would say that about
Titter .... just saying ....
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/election-debate-challenger/
Anyway, evening all. I won't be watching the debatette as I've got another 3 hours at the pleasure of First Great Western before I reach Penzance... whilst the newly-installed FGW wifi won't allow me to stream TV (the bandwidth is almost as thin as the business case for reprivatising East Coast) it should enable me to keep abreast of PB's objective commentary. It's almost as good as being there.
Wiltshire and Somerset are surprisingly pretty in early evening April sunshine. Hell, yes.
Nige has a hair out of place!
He is the only one who audibly sounds like a normal English person, I would have thought that will be beg
An Aussie, A Scot, A Taff and Ed Miliband
Half an upper for Mrs JackW
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03270/carousel_3270380b.jpg
Bennet just promised to not just end tuition fees, but also to cancel existing ones. Might get Fox jr's vote...
It's still disingenuous, though.
I did predict this would happen on here last week.
Something there for everyone.
Keynes backed countercyclical spending which we have. The country is currently growing at out long term growth rate so we are in the boom part of our cycle, we should be saving for the next recession. Instead we're running a major deficit during a boom - Keynes would never have suggested increasing spending now.
This country is not going to magically grow at 2% above trend rate because of a bit of extra spending on benefits. There is no point in spending to increase economic capacity when we already such low productivity, it would just cause long term deflation or stagflation. Keynes works in a post-war setting where the economic base is very low and we need rapid expansion of infrastructure and services. In a steady state economy like ours it is just going to blow the budget for possibly 0.5% GDP growth because it will all get pissed away in benefits and welfare.
Question, do you honestly believe that the UK has the capacity to grow at 4-5% every year on a volume measure at market price, with nominal growth at 6-7%? I don't ever see that with our without fiscal stimulus. Keynes only works to reduce debt levels and the deficit when there is a low base. We don't have a low base. We have a very high base, some would say we are about to head into the end of the current cycle, I just hope the economy is well prepared enough to withstand another shock. We should at least go into a normal crisis with a small housing crash and services downturn. There is little else to strip away.