I've never rated Evan Davis as an interviewer (too geeky and nerdy!) but I felt he did a pretty good job with Grant Schapps tonight on Newsnight - quite funny that he took the Labour £3,000 extra tax figure and applied it to Tory analysis saying it amounted to £60bn welfare cuts (£12bn x 5 years) - Schapps' face was a picture when applying their own pathetic analysis back on their own policies. Plus Davis' dissemination of Schapps' business career was highly amusing too!
One of the things I always look out for at election time is where the party leaders are visiting. Interesting choice by the Welsh Tories to launch their campaign in the Gower today. If you look at far west Wales, Preseli Pembrokeshire (7% swing to the Tories) and South Pembrokeshire & West Carmarthenshire (5.5% swing to the Tories) both are swinging Tory long term with affluent retirees choosing to retire there. Gower swung by a bit over 5% in 2010, with a 2,700 Labour majority - no realistic chance that the Tories will gain it this time, but I certainly wouldn't expect the Labour majority to increase that much this time. A bit of bravado on behalf of the Welsh Tories really. In Wales, I've just got Cardiff North and Cardiff Central going Labour, and no change apart from that.
Albert Owen still standing in Ynys Mon which means no change as far as I'm concerned. I don't think the Lib Dems are that safe in Ceredigeon and Brecon but I think they'll just about hold on in both. Popular Tory in Montgomeryshire standing (Glyn ?) means I've got that as a Tory hold. Will be interesting to see what happens to the Labour majorities in their South Wales strongholds - Lib Dems did really well in places like Merthyr last time, suspect the non-Labour vote will disperse far and wide leaving Labour perfectly safe with around 50% of the vote in many of those constituencies. But 2010 showed that with the ongoing wearing off of the heavy industry / coal mining legacy that South Wales is no longer quite the rock solid Labour heartland that it once was, not as though it affects the distribution of seats in any way in 2015.
Northern labour tory marginal where WWC voters might be attracted to UKIP. How many are going to see Tories coming through the middle.
I really, honestly can see a Tory majority happening if there are 10-15....
If you expect that to happen then take a look at Don Valley as a surprise Conservative gain.
The Labour vote there is very wwc UKIP vulnerable while the Conservative vote is surprisingly posh and so UKIP resistant.
The Tories with a favourable wind behind them would be serious contenders in places like Penistone & Stocksbridge and Wakefield, which have got similar long term rightward trending demographic change like Don Valley. Don't think any of them are remote possibilities this time, but they'll definitely show lower than average swings to Labour this time. Not that you'll see Cameron campaigning there!
@cccammy1: SNP pick Margaret Ferrier to contest Rutherglen and Hamilton West constituency seat. Here's she's at an IRA memorial http://t.co/ifYQ3Qbees
Dublin tourist trap becomes "IRA memorial". The level of desperation from the Blue and Red Tories is palpable.
So she was not stood in front of an IRA memorial then? Do you have to deny the fact or are we not allowed to draw a conclusion from the fact?
Do you even know what the IRA is?
Small clue, it has nothing to do with anything that happened in Northern Ireland after 1971. Bigger clue, it has nothing to do with anything that happened in Kilmainham Gaol in 1916.
guys/ladies - which of the high street bookies can we place CONSTITUENCY bets in shops . i know from Shadsy that Ladbrokes we can. Dont know about any of the others ?
Hills, Betfred, Coral.
hmm got told by Hills shop staff 2 weeks ago and coral telephone staff we couldnt place bets in their shops.
guys/ladies - which of the high street bookies can we place CONSTITUENCY bets in shops . i know from Shadsy that Ladbrokes we can. Dont know about any of the others ?
Hills, Betfred, Coral.
hmm got told by Hills shop staff 2 weeks ago and coral telephone staff we couldnt place bets in their shops.
guys/ladies - which of the high street bookies can we place CONSTITUENCY bets in shops . i know from Shadsy that Ladbrokes we can. Dont know about any of the others ?
Hills, Betfred, Coral.
hmm got told by Hills shop staff 2 weeks ago and coral telephone staff we couldnt place bets in their shops.
Betfred took £20 from me on 1 UKIP seat at 11-2 the other week in a shop, can't get on with them online.
@cccammy1: SNP pick Margaret Ferrier to contest Rutherglen and Hamilton West constituency seat. Here's she's at an IRA memorial http://t.co/ifYQ3Qbees
Dublin tourist trap becomes "IRA memorial". The level of desperation from the Blue and Red Tories is palpable.
So she was not stood in front of an IRA memorial then? Do you have to deny the fact or are we not allowed to draw a conclusion from the fact?
It's a National Monument in Ireland, site of the execution of the leaders of the 1916 Easter Rising, including Edinburgh-born James Connolly. The IRA didn't come into existence until 18 months afterwards...
guys/ladies - which of the high street bookies can we place CONSTITUENCY bets in shops . i know from Shadsy that Ladbrokes we can. Dont know about any of the others ?
Hills, Betfred, Coral.
hmm got told by Hills shop staff 2 weeks ago and coral telephone staff we couldnt place bets in their shops.
what about paddy power
Screamingeagles has placed quite alot of shop bets with Paddy Power so they definitely take them.
Cameron may well be best resigning if the numbers turned out like that and leave Miliband to struggle to put anything meaningful through, while ensuring he stays in place and trashes the Labour brand again.
Dave resigns if those are the numbers I reckon.
More to the point: if those are the numbers, SELL SELL SELL
I hold no stocks except my pension which autobuys 60% UK FTSE at the moment
Can you change the balance?
In all seriousness: the financial markets are still, quite remarkably, almost oblivious to the political risk. What I think will happen if we don't get a stable-looking Conservative-led government is a rapid and indiscriminate sell-off of UK-quoted stocks, affecting both the
DYOR , this is not investment advice, past performance is no guide, etc etc.
So much of the earnings on the FTSE100 are foreign based that it really doesn't take its cue from domestic politics in the way that it did (arguably) around the 1974 elections and the 1979 election. FTSE250 and FTSE350 are more sensitive to domestic political considerations these days, But arguably £100bn extra borrowing if Labour get in over 5 years compared to the Tories plans (and that's probably an over-estimate) is really comparative chicken feed as far as the markets are concerned. Whoever gets elected, we're heading for the start of a global sovereign debt crisis from the start of October this year. The election is one great sideshow as far as the markets are concerned. The die is long cast, the UK long term sovereign debt position is unsustainable regardless of who wins this election. A restructuring / hair cut of public debt is coming down the track a la Greece regardless of the election result, not that the market will panic about public debt until we get past the end of September this year.
Well Robert Downey Junior is a Republican, he became a Republican after a stint in prison.
Oh you're talking about Benedict Cumberbatch.
Benedict "Wooden" Lumberbatch!
[dives for cover]
That's the Oscar nominated Benedict Cumberbatch
No shortage of bad actors nominated for Oscars.
Mel Gibson, Kevin Costner and Nicolas Cage have won Oscars. Gary Oldman, Ralph Fiennes, Richard Burton, Stanley Kubrick(!) and David Lynch have not.
Although to be fair, David Lynch's acceptance speech would be played backwards and read by a dwarf...
Mel Gibson, to be fair, is a brilliant director. Braveheart was a splendid swords-and-sporrans melodrama, the Passion of Christ was eerie but compelling, and the 50-minute march-to-sacrifice scene in Apocalypto constitutes some of the best movie-making of all time.
Stop arguing with facts, it's confusing...:-)
OK, I'll give you Mel Gibson: let's face it, we're never going to see anything like The Passion again. But the 68th Academy Awards look really weird in retrospect: Mel Gibson (Best Director) and Nicolas Cage (Best Actor). Ah, such promise...
Seem to be mostly Rangers fans upset with the Rutherglen lady...
No idea what the breakdown is in that seat, it's the sort of area that if Scotland were partitioned would look like the border of India and Bangladesh.
It won't be enough to change outcomes in any case.
Cameron may well be best resigning if the numbers turned out like that and leave Miliband to struggle to put anything meaningful through, while ensuring he stays in place and trashes the Labour brand again.
Dave resigns if those are the numbers I reckon.
More to the point: if those are the numbers, SELL SELL SELL
I hold no stocks except my pension which autobuys 60% UK FTSE at the moment
Can you change the balance?
In all seriousness: the financial markets are still, quite remarkably, almost oblivious to the political risk. What I think will happen if we don't get a stable-looking Conservative-led government is a rapid and indiscriminate sell-off of UK-quoted stocks, affecting both the
DYOR , this is not investment advice, past performance is no guide, etc etc.
So much of the earnings on the FTSE100 are foreign based that it really doesn't take its cue from domestic politics in the way that it did (arguably) around the 1974 elections and the 1979 election. FTSE250 and FTSE350 are more sensitive to domestic political considerations these days, But arguably £100bn extra borrowing if Labour get in over 5 years compared to the Tories plans (and that's probably an over-estimate) is really comparative chicken feed as far as the markets are concerned. Whoever gets elected, we're heading for the start of a global sovereign debt crisis from the start of October this year. The election is one great sideshow as far as the markets are concerned. The die is long cast, the UK long term sovereign debt position is unsustainable regardless of who wins this election. A restructuring / hair cut of public debt is coming down the track a la Greece regardless of the election result, not that the market will panic about public debt until we get past the end of September this year.
Nobody wins a "we're doomed" contest against Hunchman ;-)
When are we going to see the first party at 38%? The panic will be fun to watch.
Can't see it myself, but with the Tory vote at 36% only 1% down on 2010, the interesting thing is how much of this is UKIP leakage vs votes picked up mainly from the Lib Dems. If we have UKIP at 13%, up from 3% in 2010, and it splits 40:20:40 from Tory, Labour, Lib Dem respectively then that implies 4% Tory to UKIP leakage, with 3% pickup from the Lib Dems - direct Tory Labour swing from 2010 I'm regarding as nil on this basis.
Which in view of the Tory Lib Dem marginals leads me to believe that the Tory vote will be far more efficiently distributed than it was in 2010, although a big part of that is the much less efficient distribution of the Labour vote - Scotland, and evidence they're piling up votes in their heartlands and only really performing well where it really counts in London. Thoughts?
Allegra on Newsnight claims "Labour private polling shows that a third of SNP voters (and implies all SNP voters not switchers) could go back to Labour".
Sounds as spurious as the Lib Dem nonsense claims from a few weeks ago.
Cameron may well be best resigning if the numbers turned out like that and leave Miliband to struggle to put anything meaningful through, while ensuring he stays in place and trashes the Labour brand again.
Dave resigns if those are the numbers I reckon.
More to the point: if those are the numbers, SELL SELL SELL
I hold no stocks except my pension which autobuys 60% UK FTSE at the moment
Can you change the balance?
In all seriousness: the financial markets are still, quite remarkably, almost oblivious to the political risk. What I think will happen if we don't get a stable-looking Conservative-led government is a rapid and indiscriminate sell-off of UK-quoted stocks, affecting both the
DYOR , this is not investment advice, past performance is no guide, etc etc.
until we get past the end of September this year.
Nobody wins a "we're doomed" contest against Hunchman ;-)
I'm optimistic on the US Stockmarket once we get the correction of the next few months out of the way into late May / early June, and I'll be optimistic on gold once we challenge the $875-$910 support level. And I'm uber bullish on the US Dollar into late 2017. Although there will be major carnage post the start of October this year in the sovereign debt market and debt generally (RISING interest rates), there is massive opportunity out there. Hunchman pessimistic - NO WAY!
Northern labour tory marginal where WWC voters might be attracted to UKIP. How many are going to see Tories coming through the middle.
I really, honestly can see a Tory majority happening if there are 10-15....
If you expect that to happen then take a look at Don Valley as a surprise Conservative gain.
The Labour vote there is very wwc UKIP vulnerable while the Conservative vote is surprisingly posh and so UKIP resistant.
Thanks Richard.
Eminently possible, especially with the 17% LD vote from last time in 'could go anywhere territory'. I often have the feeling, perhaps misplaced and based on (the opposite of) politics down in Dorset, that if it is a Lab seat and there was a decent LD 3rd showing in 2010 then it is possible that more of that vote will break for the Tories (sorry Mike) than anyone else. Any insight into the demographics of LD vote in Don Valley - presumably ABC1?
Even more plausible - Caroline Flint is the incumbent! Is she popular anywhere?
Seem to be mostly Rangers fans upset with the Rutherglen lady...
No idea what the breakdown is in that seat, it's the sort of area that if Scotland were partitioned would look like the border of India and Bangladesh.
It won't be enough to change outcomes in any case.
Dair - what are your thoughts on Rutherglen and Hamilton West? Think I missed that off my Labour list of holds last night in Scotland which would have me at SNP 50, Lib Dem 1, Tory 1 and Labour 7.
The one I seat I probably care about more in Scotland that anything else is Paisley South and the (I hope) defeat of Douglas Alexander - I'll cheer that one with some of my best Scotch more than any of the other SLAB casualities - I absolutely can't stand that man. I don't care if it's a 19 year old SNP candidate that's far too young to be an MP! (Mhairi ?) - I just want wee Dougie consigned to the dustbin of history!
Rubbish. DCT with Mundell is on a knifedge as witnessed by the Ashcroft poll. You can make a plausible case that the Tories might come through the middle in Roxburgh & Berwickshire along with Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine which would give 3 seats if the Tories are lucky. Any more than that is absolute poppycock.
Allegra on Newsnight claims "Labour private polling shows that a third of SNP voters (and implies all SNP voters not switchers) could go back to Labour".
Sounds as spurious as the Lib Dem nonsense claims from a few weeks ago.
I thought due to spending restrictions partys can't really do private polling now, unless they are referring to something that is quite old.
So some wealthy actor wants to tell us all about social justice and who we should vote for?
WHY DON'T YOU GIVE US MOST OF YOUR MONEY THEN, YOU DON'T NEED MUCH SO GIVE IT TO SOME POOR PEOPLE SHORT ARSE.
No? Oh, ok.
Perhaps he does. When JK Rowling gave us £1 million, she got ticked off from numerous sides - why didn't she give it to good cause X instead, why did she use the proceeds from apolitical youngsters for a political purpose, etc.
People in the public eye can't win with that sort of thing, so they might as well do whatever they think best privately, like the rest of us, and say what they think the country needs - also like the rest of us.
Allegra on Newsnight claims "Labour private polling shows that a third of SNP voters (and implies all SNP voters not switchers) could go back to Labour".
Sounds as spurious as the Lib Dem nonsense claims from a few weeks ago.
Allegra probably got excited hearing that from one of her contacts within Labour HQ (and personal friends) given her political allegiance. I think its as spurious as you. The SNP vote is as rock solid as anything is at this election right now, backed up by poll after poll and real VOTES in local by-elections across Scotland post the independence vote.
@robindbrant: Yes it's early days but @BBCNewsnight forecast not good reading for @UKIP who it has on just 1 seat. Not 1 gain but just 1 overall #ge2015
Does that mean the traitorous pig dog is set to be voted out?
Well I live in Hope, well I live in Dore, which isn't that far from Hope
You live in Dore? Lucky you, it's probably the most beautiful part of the "Steel City". I visit there quite a bit. It was in Derbyshire until 1934, now in South Yorkshire. Birthplace of Joe Root etc. etc.
Seem to be mostly Rangers fans upset with the Rutherglen lady...
No idea what the breakdown is in that seat, it's the sort of area that if Scotland were partitioned would look like the border of India and Bangladesh.
It won't be enough to change outcomes in any case.
Dair - what are your thoughts on Rutherglen and Hamilton West? Think I missed that off my Labour list of holds last night in Scotland which would have me at SNP 50, Lib Dem 1, Tory 1 and Labour 7.
The one I seat I probably care about more in Scotland that anything else is Paisley South and the (I hope) defeat of Douglas Alexander - I'll cheer that one with some of my best Scotch more than any of the other SLAB casualities - I absolutely can't stand that man. I don't care if it's a 19 year old SNP candidate that's far too young to be an MP! (Mhairi ?) - I just want wee Dougie consigned to the dustbin of history!
What an excellent idea. Might have to open the A'bunadh I've been saving for momentous occasions if Labour are wiped out in North Briton. Ditto if more Tory MPs than Pandas.
So some wealthy actor wants to tell us all about social justice and who we should vote for?
WHY DON'T YOU GIVE US MOST OF YOUR MONEY THEN, YOU DON'T NEED MUCH SO GIVE IT TO SOME POOR PEOPLE SHORT ARSE.
No? Oh, ok.
Perhaps he does. When JK Rowling gave us £1 million, she got ticked off from numerous sides - why didn't she give it to good cause X instead, why did she use the proceeds from apolitical youngsters for a political purpose, etc.
People in the public eye can't win with that sort of thing, so they might as well do whatever they think best privately, like the rest of us, and say what they think the country needs - also like the rest of us.
Impressive amount of people campaigning along side you in Beeston yesterday Nick! Any more useful insights from Broxtowe? You said you felt you were about 7% ahead last time we spoke - personally I think you'll win by a bit less than that (4-5%) but I've still got Broxtowe in the red column when I look at things seat by seat. Loughborough a Tory hold though for me - do you know anything about how the Labour campaign is going there?
Is Nicky Morgan going to get any national role or not I wonder?
Well Robert Downey Junior is a Republican, he became a Republican after a stint in prison.
Oh you're talking about Benedict Cumberbatch.
Benedict "Wooden" Lumberbatch!
[dives for cover]
That's the Oscar nominated Benedict Cumberbatch
No shortage of bad actors nominated for Oscars.
Mel Gibson, Kevin Costner and Nicolas Cage have won Oscars. Gary Oldman, Ralph Fiennes, Richard Burton, Stanley Kubrick(!) and David Lynch have not.
Although to be fair, David Lynch's acceptance speech would be played backwards and read by a dwarf...
Mel Gibson, to be fair, is a brilliant director. Braveheart was a splendid swords-and-sporrans melodrama, the Passion of Christ was eerie but compelling, and the 50-minute march-to-sacrifice scene in Apocalypto constitutes some of the best movie-making of all time.
The Passion put paid to the lie Hollywood is a profit seeking industry.
The excellent Jim Caviezel had trouble getting roles after the Passion too.
Dair - what are your thoughts on Rutherglen and Hamilton West? Think I missed that off my Labour list of holds last night in Scotland which would have me at SNP 50, Lib Dem 1, Tory 1 and Labour 7.
The one I seat I probably care about more in Scotland that anything else is Paisley South and the (I hope) defeat of Douglas Alexander - I'll cheer that one with some of my best Scotch more than any of the other SLAB casualities - I absolutely can't stand that man. I don't care if it's a 19 year old SNP candidate that's far too young to be an MP! (Mhairi ?) - I just want wee Dougie consigned to the dustbin of history!
A seat like Rutherglen and Hamilton West you'd need to go through village by village to properly value the likely outcome. It's split on Holyrood terms with Rutherglen a 1000 Labour majority and Hamilton and sundry a 2000 SNP majority. Looking at the OS map quite a few of the real Loyalist strongholds like Larkhall are outside of the Westminster seat.
SNP gain just looking at the map.
I also really want to see Dougie hammered. His smug face having a Portillo moment will be fantastic.
When are we going to see the first party at 38%? The panic will be fun to watch.
Can't see it myself, but with the Tory vote at 36% only 1% down on 2010, the interesting thing is how much of this is UKIP leakage vs votes picked up mainly from the Lib Dems. If we have UKIP at 13%, up from 3% in 2010, and it splits 40:20:40 from Tory, Labour, Lib Dem respectively then that implies 4% Tory to UKIP leakage, with 3% pickup from the Lib Dems - direct Tory Labour swing from 2010 I'm regarding as nil on this basis.
Which in view of the Tory Lib Dem marginals leads me to believe that the Tory vote will be far more efficiently distributed than it was in 2010, although a big part of that is the much less efficient distribution of the Labour vote - Scotland, and evidence they're piling up votes in their heartlands and only really performing well where it really counts in London. Thoughts?
Again sounds about right.
Though even in London Labour will pile up huge votes in inner London for precisely zero benefit.
Northern labour tory marginal where WWC voters might be attracted to UKIP. How many are going to see Tories coming through the middle.
I really, honestly can see a Tory majority happening if there are 10-15....
If you expect that to happen then take a look at Don Valley as a surprise Conservative gain.
The Labour vote there is very wwc UKIP vulnerable while the Conservative vote is surprisingly posh and so UKIP resistant.
Thanks Richard.
Eminently possible, especially with the 17% LD vote from last time in 'could go anywhere territory'. I often have the feeling, perhaps misplaced and based on (the opposite of) politics down in Dorset, that if it is a Lab seat and there was a decent LD 3rd showing in 2010 then it is possible that more of that vote will break for the Tories (sorry Mike) than anyone else. Any insight into the demographics of LD vote in Don Valley - presumably ABC1?
Even more plausible - Caroline Flint is the incumbent! Is she popular anywhere?
Pretty middle class I'd say but that will include public sector lefties who will support Labour or Greens, wishy washy types who might go Conservative and NOTA types who will be LibDem again or possibly Green.
Working class LibDems will be heavily NOTA and will go UKIP.
To be fair to Caroline Flint she's done more for her constituency than EdM has done for his.
Lets see if the party leaders are out on the campaign trail tomorrow meeting real voters.....or likely too busy preparing for the farcical 7 way debate on Thursday. I'd rather be out on the campaign trail myself!
1 day down of this election campaign, another 37 to go. If the quality of the debate is anything to go by today, I like 99.9% of the rest of the country will be glad when the next 37 days are out of the way and we get to May 7!
Dair - what are your thoughts on Rutherglen and Hamilton West? Think I missed that off my Labour list of holds last night in Scotland which would have me at SNP 50, Lib Dem 1, Tory 1 and Labour 7.
The one I seat I probably care about more in Scotland that anything else is Paisley South and the (I hope) defeat of Douglas Alexander - I'll cheer that one with some of my best Scotch more than any of the other SLAB casualities - I absolutely can't stand that man. I don't care if it's a 19 year old SNP candidate that's far too young to be an MP! (Mhairi ?) - I just want wee Dougie consigned to the dustbin of history!
A seat like Rutherglen and Hamilton West you'd need to go through village by village to properly value the likely outcome. It's split on Holyrood terms with Rutherglen a 1000 Labour majority and Hamilton and sundry a 2000 SNP majority. Looking at the OS map quite a few of the real Loyalist strongholds like Larkhall are outside of the Westminster seat.
SNP gain just looking at the map.
I also really want to see Dougie hammered. His smug face having a Portillo moment will be fantastic.
Not as much as seeing a plank smashed in to Eck's mug if he loses in Gordon.
The whole of Scotland plus Nicola and Peter will be cheering.
Dair - what are your thoughts on Rutherglen and Hamilton West? Think I missed that off my Labour list of holds last night in Scotland which would have me at SNP 50, Lib Dem 1, Tory 1 and Labour 7.
The one I seat I probably care about more in Scotland that anything else is Paisley South and the (I hope) defeat of Douglas Alexander - I'll cheer that one with some of my best Scotch more than any of the other SLAB casualities - I absolutely can't stand that man. I don't care if it's a 19 year old SNP candidate that's far too young to be an MP! (Mhairi ?) - I just want wee Dougie consigned to the dustbin of history!
A seat like Rutherglen and Hamilton West you'd need to go through village by village to properly value the likely outcome. It's split on Holyrood terms with Rutherglen a 1000 Labour majority and Hamilton and sundry a 2000 SNP majority. Looking at the OS map quite a few of the real Loyalist strongholds like Larkhall are outside of the Westminster seat.
SNP gain just looking at the map.
I also really want to see Dougie hammered. His smug face having a Portillo moment will be fantastic.
Thanks Dair - our friend Shadsy at Ladbrokes last time I looked had got it Labour 1/2 and SNP 6/4 IIRC - I need to do more research on that one!
Allegra on Newsnight claims "Labour private polling shows that a third of SNP voters (and implies all SNP voters not switchers) could go back to Labour".
Sounds as spurious as the Lib Dem nonsense claims from a few weeks ago.
It's after the "Voting SNP will let Dave in" question.
Well Robert Downey Junior is a Republican, he became a Republican after a stint in prison.
Oh you're talking about Benedict Cumberbatch.
Benedict "Wooden" Lumberbatch!
[dives for cover]
That's the Oscar nominated Benedict Cumberbatch
No shortage of bad actors nominated for Oscars.
Mel Gibson, Kevin Costner and Nicolas Cage have won Oscars. Gary Oldman, Ralph Fiennes, Richard Burton, Stanley Kubrick(!) and David Lynch have not.
Although to be fair, David Lynch's acceptance speech would be played backwards and read by a dwarf...
Mel Gibson, to be fair, is a brilliant director. Braveheart was a splendid swords-and-sporrans melodrama, the Passion of Christ was eerie but compelling, and the 50-minute march-to-sacrifice scene in Apocalypto constitutes some of the best movie-making of all time.
The Passion put paid to the lie Hollywood is a profit seeking industry.
The excellent Jim Caviezel had trouble getting roles after the Passion too.
Not doing so badly with Person of Interest at the moment, though.
Dair - what are your thoughts on Rutherglen and Hamilton West? Think I missed that off my Labour list of holds last night in Scotland which would have me at SNP 50, Lib Dem 1, Tory 1 and Labour 7.
The one I seat I probably care about more in Scotland that anything else is Paisley South and the (I hope) defeat of Douglas Alexander - I'll cheer that one with some of my best Scotch more than any of the other SLAB casualities - I absolutely can't stand that man. I don't care if it's a 19 year old SNP candidate that's far too young to be an MP! (Mhairi ?) - I just want wee Dougie consigned to the dustbin of history!
A seat like Rutherglen and Hamilton West you'd need to go through village by village to properly value the likely outcome. It's split on Holyrood terms with Rutherglen a 1000 Labour majority and Hamilton and sundry a 2000 SNP majority. Looking at the OS map quite a few of the real Loyalist strongholds like Larkhall are outside of the Westminster seat.
SNP gain just looking at the map.
I also really want to see Dougie hammered. His smug face having a Portillo moment will be fantastic.
Not as much as seeing a plank smashed in to Eck's mug if he loses in Gordon.
SNP gain with Salmond in Gordon is absolutely nailed on - the result as far back as the 2011 Scottish elections with Salmond winning the MSP seat tells you that if nothing else. Political bravado from the team Westminster parties to tell you that they have a chance of beating the collusus of Scottish politics there!
Dair - what are your thoughts on Rutherglen and Hamilton West? Think I missed that off my Labour list of holds last night in Scotland which would have me at SNP 50, Lib Dem 1, Tory 1 and Labour 7.
The one I seat I probably care about more in Scotland that anything else is Paisley South and the (I hope) defeat of Douglas Alexander - I'll cheer that one with some of my best Scotch more than any of the other SLAB casualities - I absolutely can't stand that man. I don't care if it's a 19 year old SNP candidate that's far too young to be an MP! (Mhairi ?) - I just want wee Dougie consigned to the dustbin of history!
A seat like Rutherglen and Hamilton West you'd need to go through village by village to properly value the likely outcome. It's split on Holyrood terms with Rutherglen a 1000 Labour majority and Hamilton and sundry a 2000 SNP majority. Looking at the OS map quite a few of the real Loyalist strongholds like Larkhall are outside of the Westminster seat.
SNP gain just looking at the map.
I also really want to see Dougie hammered. His smug face having a Portillo moment will be fantastic.
Not as much as seeing a plank smashed in to Eck's mug if he loses in Gordon.
SNP gain with Salmond in Gordon is absolutely nailed on - the result as far back as the 2011 Scottish elections with Salmond winning the MSP seat tells you that if nothing else. Political bravado from the team Westminster parties to tell you that they have a chance of beating the collusus of Scottish politics there!
I admit that it's a faint chance, but giving that smug b××××××d a public humiliation is still a pleasant dream.
On Portillo moments in Scotland. I cant make up my mind what would give me the greatest glee, there are several potential candidates in that respect. Wee Dougie Alexander is definitely one of them. Danny Alexander would be another one for me so much do I detest him. Ian Davidson getting booted oot would be a definite hit the roof moment for me. Its such a shame that Brown and Darling are retiring to count their ill gotten gains.
On Portillo moments in Scotland. I cant make up my mind what would give me the greatest glee, there are several potential candidates in that respect. Wee Dougie Alexander is definitely one of them. Danny Alexander would be another one for me so much do I detest him. Ian Davidson getting booted oot would be a definite hit the roof moment foe me. It such a shame that Brown and Darling are retiring to count their ill gotten gains.
Going to be alot of "Were you up for" moments in Scotland.
Possibly some too in England, though whether those are Labour gains or Conservative holds will be anyone's guess.
Pudsey will be the seat that defines whether or not Dave can stay in I reckon.
You have to wonder at the level of Labour incompetence.
"Hey, Sebastian, now we have Martin Freeman for our PEB, why not just focus on him with a plain white background?" "Sounds fantastic, Algenon, what could possibly go wrong?"
Biggest Portillo moments for me are the ones that aren't certain. So Douglas and Creepy Jim will be the biggies. Anus Sarwar isn't certain to lose so his will be fun. Just think of the millions his old man spent building that seat into what it was. Ouch.
Curran already had hers and it's a certainty so won't be as good on the night. The likes of Davidson and Bain? I'd have trouble picking them out a polis line up.
But my biggest of the night will be Cathy Jamieson.
"Not as much as seeing a plank smashed in to Eck's mug if he loses in Gordon.
The whole of Scotland plus Nicola and Peter will be cheering. "
Both a silly and unpleasant comment.
Salmond will gain Gordon, replacing a truly unpleasant character in Malcolm Bruce who was pretty much spittle flecked in his anti-SNP rant on TV yet again last night (he is fortunate that he is standing down, but remains deluded that the Lib Dems will hold on).
Never ever been a fan of the Scottish Labour party, but I can still admire astute decent politicians from other parties. But when the SNP are banning their own MP's from expressing a view or criticism that deviates from the party line, its not Jim Murphy I find creepy, but the SNP and their supporters who then resort to the comfort blanket of name calling their opponents.
But I suppose if you cannot tolerate or respect an opposing view or criticism within the SNP, your automatic antagonism towards other peoples right to get democratically elected under a different party banner will shine through. At lot of voters in Jim Murphy's constituency don't find him 'creepy', and I didn't find the man who stopped his car and helped with the rescue operation in the Clutha Vaults bar creepy either. I call that fecking brave to be honest!!
Biggest Portillo moments for me are the ones that aren't certain. So Douglas and Creepy Jim will be the biggies. Anus Sarwar isn't certain to lose so his will be fun. Just think of the millions his old man spent building that seat into what it was. Ouch.
Curran already had hers and it's a certainty so won't be as good on the night. The likes of Davidson and Bain? I'd have trouble picking them out a polis line up.
But my biggest of the night will be Cathy Jamieson.
Off topic, I took my eldest and one of her friends to Woburn Safari Park today.
We got attacked by a rhino. No joke. I've had grumpy rhinos come unnervingly close in safari parks before, but this one stared at me murderously, then angrily ran forward and bumped the door with its head down.
If it had stuck its horn through the panel it could have kebabbed the kids.
Naturally the children adored it, and will remember it forever. I confess I was horrified.
Well well big Eck really seems to upset you. However if he was Labour or Liberal then he would certainly be leading their respective parties. He is someone who has stuck to his guns throughout his political career and who uniquely maintained a positive popularity rating. In addition he has never ducked a challange unlike the Brown's of this world.
He will win Gordon regardless of the unscrupulous Liberal Democrats none of whom could hold a candle to him.
Well well big Eck really seems to upset you. However if he was Labour or Liberal then he would certainly be leading their respective parties. He is someone who has stuck to his guns throughout his political career and who uniquely maintained a positive popularity rating. In addition he has never ducked a challange unlike the Brown's of this world.
He will win Gordon regardless of the unscrupulous Liberal Democrats none of whom could hold a candle to him.
You do know that the party with the highest anti-vote in the ST YouGov "tactical voting" question was the SNP don't you? That said, the level of tactical voting is pretty low across the board, so will only affect the closest of races.
Natalie Bennett is best-priced at 3.75 (11/4) with Betfred to achieve the WORST rating in the 7 way Leaders' Debate. Based on past performance, this looks like very fair value to me, but DYOR.
Comments
Small clue, it has nothing to do with anything that happened in Northern Ireland after 1971. Bigger clue, it has nothing to do with anything that happened in Kilmainham Gaol in 1916.
OK, I'll give you Mel Gibson: let's face it, we're never going to see anything like The Passion again. But the 68th Academy Awards look really weird in retrospect: Mel Gibson (Best Director) and Nicolas Cage (Best Actor). Ah, such promise...
http://www.pulseresources.org/new/showthread.php?t=4101
Protestant Loyalist Unionist Social Education are on the case
It won't be enough to change outcomes in any case.
Which in view of the Tory Lib Dem marginals leads me to believe that the Tory vote will be far more efficiently distributed than it was in 2010, although a big part of that is the much less efficient distribution of the Labour vote - Scotland, and evidence they're piling up votes in their heartlands and only really performing well where it really counts in London. Thoughts?
Sounds as spurious as the Lib Dem nonsense claims from a few weeks ago.
Eminently possible, especially with the 17% LD vote from last time in 'could go anywhere territory'. I often have the feeling, perhaps misplaced and based on (the opposite of) politics down in Dorset, that if it is a Lab seat and there was a decent LD 3rd showing in 2010 then it is possible that more of that vote will break for the Tories (sorry Mike) than anyone else. Any insight into the demographics of LD vote in Don Valley - presumably ABC1?
Even more plausible - Caroline Flint is the incumbent! Is she popular anywhere?
The one I seat I probably care about more in Scotland that anything else is Paisley South and the (I hope) defeat of Douglas Alexander - I'll cheer that one with some of my best Scotch more than any of the other SLAB casualities - I absolutely can't stand that man. I don't care if it's a 19 year old SNP candidate that's far too young to be an MP! (Mhairi ?) - I just want wee Dougie consigned to the dustbin of history!
Night all.
We had those predictions in 2010.
People in the public eye can't win with that sort of thing, so they might as well do whatever they think best privately, like the rest of us, and say what they think the country needs - also like the rest of us.
Hope's quite nice too :-)
Is Nicky Morgan going to get any national role or not I wonder?
The excellent Jim Caviezel had trouble getting roles after the Passion too.
SNP gain just looking at the map.
I also really want to see Dougie hammered. His smug face having a Portillo moment will be fantastic.
Though even in London Labour will pile up huge votes in inner London for precisely zero benefit.
Working class LibDems will be heavily NOTA and will go UKIP.
To be fair to Caroline Flint she's done more for her constituency than EdM has done for his.
1 day down of this election campaign, another 37 to go. If the quality of the debate is anything to go by today, I like 99.9% of the rest of the country will be glad when the next 37 days are out of the way and we get to May 7!
Good night all.
The whole of Scotland plus Nicola and Peter will be cheering.
Possibly some too in England, though whether those are Labour gains or Conservative holds will be anyone's guess.
Pudsey will be the seat that defines whether or not Dave can stay in I reckon.
"Hey, Sebastian, now we have Martin Freeman for our PEB, why not just focus on him with a plain white background?"
"Sounds fantastic, Algenon, what could possibly go wrong?"
Everyone: "This".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNN1y9dWzS8
Curran already had hers and it's a certainty so won't be as good on the night. The likes of Davidson and Bain? I'd have trouble picking them out a polis line up.
But my biggest of the night will be Cathy Jamieson.
"Not as much as seeing a plank smashed in to Eck's mug if he loses in Gordon.
The whole of Scotland plus Nicola and Peter will be cheering. "
Both a silly and unpleasant comment.
Salmond will gain Gordon, replacing a truly unpleasant character in Malcolm Bruce who was pretty much spittle flecked in his anti-SNP rant on TV yet again last night (he is fortunate that he is standing down, but remains deluded that the Lib Dems will hold on).
But I suppose if you cannot tolerate or respect an opposing view or criticism within the SNP, your automatic antagonism towards other peoples right to get democratically elected under a different party banner will shine through. At lot of voters in Jim Murphy's constituency don't find him 'creepy', and I didn't find the man who stopped his car and helped with the rescue operation in the Clutha Vaults bar creepy either. I call that fecking brave to be honest!!
Well well big Eck really seems to upset you. However if he was Labour or Liberal then he would certainly be leading their respective parties. He is someone who has stuck to his guns throughout his political career and who uniquely maintained a positive popularity rating. In addition he has never ducked a challange unlike the Brown's of this world.
He will win Gordon regardless of the unscrupulous Liberal Democrats none of whom could hold a candle to him.
No surprise that Miliband didn't appear in the Labour one - will he be kept hidden forever?
Based on past performance, this looks like very fair value to me, but DYOR.
http://news.sky.com/story/1455817/labour-promises-to-reverse-corporation-tax-cut
I can't decide whether to publish now or later.