1) I have a humongous man crush on Benedict Cumberbatch (and Tom Hiddleston)
2) There is a distinct correlation between the number of insulting commets aimed at Benedict and the chances of there being a daily AV/Electoral Reform thread on PB
Good grief Evan Davies is making a pigs ear of this line of attack.
Shapps sticking to the talking points on the economy. BUT, I think he should simply just say how much tax he paid as a successful businessman, and how many nurses, teachers etc that paid for.
Strange thing is, both Labour and the Tories seem to be rising...
Both benefiting from regaining some voters from UKIP prehaps? The first TV set-piece with Cameron and Miliband combined with the rest of coverage over the last few days have helped emphasize the election is between only 2 men for PM. Maybe that some Kippers are going back to their roots and going with party to most likely get them the PM that they want rather than, in many cases, wasting a vote for UKIP.
"On Speaker John Bercow - 'After the Tories failed to oust Mr Bercow (above), who they accuse of bias, in a plot last week, Mr Cameron said archly: ‘I’m sure he will find a way to demonstrate what a unifying figure he is across out great Parliament.’"
One naughty person posted the following paragraph on Mr. Speaker's wiki entry a few years ago.
"He is the Gollum of British politics. Small, gnomelike, and misshapen. But strong, with a demonic inner drive. He is despised by all, because he has betrayed all."
"On Speaker John Bercow - 'After the Tories failed to oust Mr Bercow (above), who they accuse of bias, in a plot last week, Mr Cameron said archly: ‘I’m sure he will find a way to demonstrate what a unifying figure he is across out great Parliament.’"
The next parliament might still vote to oust him, it was always down to the next parliament was it not? He has to stand every new parliament. Only this time it will still be by a show of hands not secret ballot.
@MrHarryCole: Not sure Evan landed a blow there. Nothing we haven't heard before. Not sure the presenter is meant to get more flustered than interviewee
@paulwaugh: .@EvanHD coming close to saying @grantshapps' Tory campaign + some of his businesses both lack 'integrity'. Cue backlash
My first political memory is of the 'New Labour, New Danger' posters. I didn't really grasp that there was an election going on or anything, but the image was striking and memorable to the point as a child I did have to ask what New Labour was and what was this danger.
My parents were distinctly unpolitical people, so I don't think I actually got an answer and soon forgot about it, but still, I admire the ad for some effectiveness.
Really, when you're 20% behind, just throw caution to the winds. The Tories should have had posters saying "Tony Blair. Your children are in danger from this man."
"Saying one thing while secretly thinking another" is only a good insult to make about a politician, if you are not, too, a politician. I did find Dave the Chameleon rather silly on that front.
On re-watching I remember something I felt at the time - they did a surprisingly poor job finding contradictory, colour-shifting quotes. Cameron was, and clearly marketed himself as such, someone who followed in the liberal conservative tradition. But really so far in our (increasingly centralised) political spectrum from a certain ACL Blair. So there doesn't seem to be any damaging content in alleging that he claimed to be both a true and liberal conservative - the worst thing was "heir to Blair", and the only reason that was bad was because shares in the electorate's esteem for Tony Blair had rather crashed in value by then... not something one would wish to trumpet in a Labour broadcast.
They could easily have picked out Cameron quotes or parliamentary votes, particularly from his earliest times in politics, that revealed him to be a genuinely two-faced hypocrite i.e. fully-fledged politician, but either didn't bother, or thought that including any actual politics would spoil the childlike tone.
@MrHarryCole: Not sure Evan landed a blow there. Nothing we haven't heard before. Not sure the presenter is meant to get more flustered than interviewee
@paulwaugh: .@EvanHD coming close to saying @grantshapps' Tory campaign + some of his businesses both lack 'integrity'. Cue backlash
Scott_P
I'm intrigued...
Are you actually a human being? I'm convinced you're a bot from Conservative HQ. Nothing critical about the Tory party has got past your algorithms...
My first political memory is of the 'New Labour, New Danger' posters. I didn't really grasp that there was an election going on or anything, but the image was striking and memorable to the point as a child I did have to ask what New Labour was and what was this danger.
My parents were distinctly unpolitical people, so I don't think I actually got an answer and soon forgot about it, but still, I admire the ad for some effectiveness.
I never worked out what was so bad about the 1980s that we risked being taken back to. It was a time of great jobs growth, of a country finding its inner sense of worth after a period of the economy being trashed by a Labour Gov.....
@robindbrant: Yes it's early days but @BBCNewsnight forecast not good reading for @UKIP who it has on just 1 seat. Not 1 gain but just 1 overall #ge2015
On topic, I found Martin Freeman's broadcast embarrassing, patronising and, factually, just wrong.
Maybe you are a tad partisan. I thought both of them were mediocre and lacking in impact. They are aimed at each of their supporters. This is not about making converts.
Look who's talking. I call it how exactly I see it. I thought it was childish, full of tired cliches, and the facts on the NHS and taxes were just wrong.
PS. I wasn't even planning to vote Tory until the last month. And I'm still a huge critic of Cameron; I almost stayed with UKIP. Perhaps you've forgotten that.
PPS. I thought the Tory PPB was monotonous, too long and boring.
@robindbrant: Yes it's early days but @BBCNewsnight forecast not good reading for @UKIP who it has on just 1 seat. Not 1 gain but just 1 overall #ge2015
Which would be a gain of 1, according to the rules
Sometimes. Only the one I can remember from recent times is Dave the Chameleon one.
Dave the Chameleon was very entertaining.
Will we see a telling 'billboard' in this campaign - or have we already seen it. PPBs must surely have gone past their sell by date. Other media may have taken over - the TV audience is far less monolithic. How best should a party utilise PPBs then?
Looking back, the Tories' 'evil eyes' ad, which was pulled in the end, was perhaps the most prophetic.
I never worked out what was so bad about the 1980s that we risked being taken back to. It was a time of great jobs growth, of a country finding its inner sense of worth after a period of the economy being trashed by a Labour Gov.....
Ah. OK. I see now what Labour were afraid of.....
Well whoever was the genius who came up with it, also decided to pick the most popular character on tv at that time...I guess that is what happens when you see people in terms of Cs and D2's....
How many people actually watch PPB'?. Apart from looking at both on PB tonite, I don't think I have deliberately watched one on the tele for at least a decade.
I never worked out what was so bad about the 1980s that we risked being taken back to. It was a time of great jobs growth, of a country finding its inner sense of worth after a period of the economy being trashed by a Labour Gov.....
Ah. OK. I see now what Labour were afraid of.....
It was a good decade, particularly when Labour got thrashed in elections.
Celebrity endorsements for political parties are quite a "turn-off" IMO. For anybody swayed by Martin Freeman telling them to vote Labour, more will be put off by this multi-millionaire luvvie lectuing them....
There's no doubt that Labour gets better luvvie-celebrity support.
Yet I wonder just how many actors, musicians, TV stars, etc, are secretly Tory, but would (sensibly) never admit it?
Speaking as a novelist, I reckon it is always a bad move to reveal an avowed political stance- such as a party membership, or helping with a PEB. Readers dislike it.
Sean, it's more than dislike. As a highly political animal who has worked in policy areas all my life, even while I can admire their success in their chosen career, I detest celebrities' presumption that they would lecture me on how I should vote or which party is more moral and compassionate. Seeing any actor or celebrity opine on politics, unless they have earned the right to do so by their deeds, makes my blood boil, regardless of the party they are backing.
But it does appear that most everywhere the celebs back the left over the right by a hefty margin.
Well whoever was the genius who came up with it, also decided to pick the most popular character on tv at that time...I guess that is what happens when you see people in terms of Cs and D2's....
And very soon those same idiots could be running the country.
@robindbrant: Yes it's early days but @BBCNewsnight forecast not good reading for @UKIP who it has on just 1 seat. Not 1 gain but just 1 overall #ge2015
Does that mean the traitorous pig dog is set to be voted out?
How many people actually watch PPB'?. Apart from looking at both tonite, I don't think I have deliberately watched one on the tele for at least a decade.
Imposible to say I'd imagine - I think PPBs worked when we only had BBC1-2, ITV and were broadcast at the same time across all three. So many channels are available now to viewers that if they watched TV every night up to GE2015, they still might not actually see one.
@robindbrant: Yes it's early days but @BBCNewsnight forecast not good reading for @UKIP who it has on just 1 seat. Not 1 gain but just 1 overall #ge2015
Does that mean the traitorous pig dog is set to be voted out?
Well I live in Hope, well I live in Dore, which isn't that far from Hope
How many people actually watch PPB'?. Apart from looking at both tonite, I don't think I have deliberately watched one on the tele for at least a decade.
Imposible to say I'd imagine - I think PPBs worked when we only had BBC1-2, ITV and were broadcast at the same time across all three. So many channels are available now to viewers that if they watched TV every night up to GE2015, they still might not actually see one.
I don't know about you, but with multi-channel tv, sky+ and ipad / smart phones, when a program ends I am flicking around, or checking email etc....the last thing I am going to do is leave it on the channel for the PPB.
I never worked out what was so bad about the 1980s that we risked being taken back to. It was a time of great jobs growth, of a country finding its inner sense of worth after a period of the economy being trashed by a Labour Gov.....
Ah. OK. I see now what Labour were afraid of.....
The working class discovered they could own their own homes and didn't have to be ordered about by shop stewards and their champagne socialist 'betters'.
Cameron may well be best resigning if the numbers turned out like that and leave Miliband to struggle to put anything meaningful through, while ensuring he stays in place and trashes the Labour brand again.
"Saying one thing while secretly thinking another" is only a good insult to make about a politician, if you are not, too, a politician. I did find Dave the Chameleon rather silly on that front.
On re-watching I remember something I felt at the time - they did a surprisingly poor job finding contradictory, colour-shifting quotes. Cameron was, and clearly marketed himself as such, someone who followed in the liberal conservative tradition. But really so far in our (increasingly centralised) political spectrum from a certain ACL Blair. So there doesn't seem to be any damaging content in alleging that he claimed to be both a true and liberal conservative - the worst thing was "heir to Blair", and the only reason that was bad was because shares in the electorate's esteem for Tony Blair had rather crashed in value by then... not something one would wish to trumpet in a Labour broadcast.
They could easily have picked out Cameron quotes or parliamentary votes, particularly from his earliest times in politics, that revealed him to be a genuinely two-faced hypocrite i.e. fully-fledged politician, but either didn't bother, or thought that including any actual politics would spoil the childlike tone.
It was brilliantly prophetic of ACL Blair's mum to name him (err...) after a Tory Party election guru.
Cameron may well be best resigning if the numbers turned out like that and leave Miliband to struggle to put anything meaningful through, while ensuring he stays in place and trashes the Labour brand again.
Cameron may well be best resigning if the numbers turned out like that and leave Miliband to struggle to put anything meaningful through, while ensuring he stays in place and trashes the Labour brand again.
Dave resigns if those are the numbers I reckon.
More to the point: if those are the numbers, SELL SELL SELL
Cameron may well be best resigning if the numbers turned out like that and leave Miliband to struggle to put anything meaningful through, while ensuring he stays in place and trashes the Labour brand again.
@cccammy1: SNP pick Margaret Ferrier to contest Rutherglen and Hamilton West constituency seat. Here's she's at an IRA memorial http://t.co/ifYQ3Qbees
As well as everyone pointing out that it's one of the main tourist sites in Dublin it's also a memorial to an event that happened before the IRA even existed. But other than that, well done.
I don't watch these things. I observed that a PPB seems to cure my mother of her vascular dementia and she remembers how to work the TV remote then promptly forgets again about 5 minutes later.
Cameron may well be best resigning if the numbers turned out like that and leave Miliband to struggle to put anything meaningful through, while ensuring he stays in place and trashes the Labour brand again.
Dave resigns if those are the numbers I reckon.
More to the point: if those are the numbers, SELL SELL SELL
I hold no stocks except my pension which autobuys 60% UK FTSE at the moment
Strange thing is, both Labour and the Tories seem to be rising...
They are, as will soon be demonstrated in March's PB Polling Average. Question is whether the 7-way followed by the 5-way Opposition debate will recharge the UKIP and Green batteries.
guys/ladies - which of the high street bookies can we place CONSTITUENCY bets in shops . i know from Shadsy that Ladbrokes we can. Dont know about any of the others ?
My first political memory is of the 'New Labour, New Danger' posters. I didn't really grasp that there was an election going on or anything, but the image was striking and memorable to the point as a child I did have to ask what New Labour was and what was this danger.
My parents were distinctly unpolitical people, so I don't think I actually got an answer and soon forgot about it, but still, I admire the ad for some effectiveness.
Really, when you're 20% behind, just throw caution to the winds. The Tories should have had posters saying "Tony Blair. Your children are in danger from this man."
The Middle East's children certainly were. Untold thousands of them dying in his criminal invasion of Iraq.
Speaking of which - when is some patriotic soul going to leak a copy of the latest draft of Chilcot I wonder?
guys/ladies - which of the high street bookies can we place CONSTITUENCY bets in shops . i know from Shadsy that Ladbrokes we can. Dont know about any of the others ?
One of the things I always look out for at election time is where the party leaders are visiting. Interesting choice by the Welsh Tories to launch their campaign in the Gower today. If you look at far west Wales, Preseli Pembrokeshire (7% swing to the Tories) and South Pembrokeshire & West Carmarthenshire (5.5% swing to the Tories) both are swinging Tory long term with affluent retirees choosing to retire there. Gower swung by a bit over 5% in 2010, with a 2,700 Labour majority - no realistic chance that the Tories will gain it this time, but I certainly wouldn't expect the Labour majority to increase that much this time. A bit of bravado on behalf of the Welsh Tories really. In Wales, I've just got Cardiff North and Cardiff Central going Labour, and no change apart from that.
Albert Owen still standing in Ynys Mon which means no change as far as I'm concerned. I don't think the Lib Dems are that safe in Ceredigeon and Brecon but I think they'll just about hold on in both. Popular Tory in Montgomeryshire standing (Glyn ?) means I've got that as a Tory hold. Will be interesting to see what happens to the Labour majorities in their South Wales strongholds - Lib Dems did really well in places like Merthyr last time, suspect the non-Labour vote will disperse far and wide leaving Labour perfectly safe with around 50% of the vote in many of those constituencies. But 2010 showed that with the ongoing wearing off of the heavy industry / coal mining legacy that South Wales is no longer quite the rock solid Labour heartland that it once was, not as though it affects the distribution of seats in any way in 2015.
Cameron may well be best resigning if the numbers turned out like that and leave Miliband to struggle to put anything meaningful through, while ensuring he stays in place and trashes the Labour brand again.
Dave resigns if those are the numbers I reckon.
More to the point: if those are the numbers, SELL SELL SELL
I hold no stocks except my pension which autobuys 60% UK FTSE at the moment
Can you change the balance?
In all seriousness: the financial markets are still, quite remarkably, almost oblivious to the political risk. What I think will happen if we don't get a stable-looking Conservative-led government is a rapid and indiscriminate sell-off of UK-quoted stocks, affecting both the FTSE100 and smaller companies. There will then be a period of readjustment as investors figure out that many companies are actually Miliband-proof, and may indeed even benefit if a tanking of the UK economy hits sterling. (Could be some good buying opportunities as the market re-appraises).
To my mind political betting cannot be disentangled from financial planning - they are different aspects of the same thing. In this particular case, IMO it's a no-brainer, a 'tails I win, heads I don't lose' scenario. There's no particular reason to stay long on the UK, which represents less than 10% of the world's market capitalisation:
#Newsnight/UEA election forecast puts poss Labour and Tory coalitions on 319 seats each
Is that 318 for the tories then? 261 for labour.
I think it was 285 Con, 278 Lab. The 319 figure came from adding LD and DUP to Tory and SNP Green and PC to Lab.
It was Tory 285, Labour 279, SNP 37, Lib Dem 26, Green 1, UKIP 1, Others 19 (NI 18 + Galloway in Bradford West I guess)
Certainly plausible figures - I've given my Scotland (last night) and Wales predictions (tonight) - I need to work through the overall figures after going through England seat by seat (or the 100 -120 marginals!). I guess with being on SNP 51, I would come out with around 14 seats less for Labour and have the Tories around 285 right now, as I agree pretty much with all the others bar possibly UKIP that I would have around 2-3 right now.
Conservative party disabling all comments on all of it's stuff on Youtube ever...
I find it quite depressing reading the comments that follow tweets of facebook posts by senior politicians.
What people say is just horrifically ugly. They would never feel it acceptable to be so abusive in person.
I tend not to read them, though i enjoy comments usually. Facebook and Twitter, and the similar youtube do nothing except allow unpleasant people to say ugly things.
Comments
Any other polls expected this week apart from the Gold Standard (as of Saturday night) YouGov?
Maigrit getting ripped apart on Scotland Tonight
1) I have a humongous man crush on Benedict Cumberbatch (and Tom Hiddleston)
2) There is a distinct correlation between the number of insulting commets aimed at Benedict and the chances of there being a daily AV/Electoral Reform thread on PB
Shapps sticking to the talking points on the economy. BUT, I think he should simply just say how much tax he paid as a successful businessman, and how many nurses, teachers etc that paid for.
The first TV set-piece with Cameron and Miliband combined with the rest of coverage over the last few days have helped emphasize the election is between only 2 men for PM.
Maybe that some Kippers are going back to their roots and going with party to most likely get them the PM that they want rather than, in many cases, wasting a vote for UKIP.
#watchthisspace
Freeman must be a superb actor.
Former Lib Dem chairman joins Worcester Tories to back city MP
http://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/11888893.Former_Lib_Dem_chairman_joins_Worcester_Tories_to_back_city_MP/?ref=twtrec
"He is the Gollum of British politics. Small, gnomelike, and misshapen. But strong, with a demonic inner drive. He is despised by all, because he has betrayed all."
Poor Nicola - forever in his rotund shadow.
@paulwaugh: .@EvanHD coming close to saying @grantshapps' Tory campaign + some of his businesses both lack 'integrity'. Cue backlash
On re-watching I remember something I felt at the time - they did a surprisingly poor job finding contradictory, colour-shifting quotes. Cameron was, and clearly marketed himself as such, someone who followed in the liberal conservative tradition. But really so far in our (increasingly centralised) political spectrum from a certain ACL Blair. So there doesn't seem to be any damaging content in alleging that he claimed to be both a true and liberal conservative - the worst thing was "heir to Blair", and the only reason that was bad was because shares in the electorate's esteem for Tony Blair had rather crashed in value by then... not something one would wish to trumpet in a Labour broadcast.
They could easily have picked out Cameron quotes or parliamentary votes, particularly from his earliest times in politics, that revealed him to be a genuinely two-faced hypocrite i.e. fully-fledged politician, but either didn't bother, or thought that including any actual politics would spoil the childlike tone.
Things going badly? This is no time to go with someone untested, stick with the current government.
Things going well? No need to change government then.
Either way, no need to ever change governments apparently.
I'm intrigued...
Are you actually a human being? I'm convinced you're a bot from Conservative HQ. Nothing critical about the Tory party has got past your algorithms...
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582185731872940032
Ah. OK. I see now what Labour were afraid of.....
"He killed my ma. He killed my pa. I'll vote for him."
PS. I wasn't even planning to vote Tory until the last month. And I'm still a huge critic of Cameron; I almost stayed with UKIP. Perhaps you've forgotten that.
PPS. I thought the Tory PPB was monotonous, too long and boring.
Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
#Newsnight/UEA election forecast puts poss Labour and Tory coalitions on 319 seats each
I've been there too !
Looking back, the Tories' 'evil eyes' ad, which was pulled in the end, was perhaps the most prophetic.
Perhaps they should try an EVEL eyes ad...
don't tell the other 104 mike k has got lined up to win too.
But it does appear that most everywhere the celebs back the left over the right by a hefty margin.
#swingbackbaby #hellyeah
Oh joy, we're going to be treated to five weeks of two posh boys shouting 'posh boy' at each other.
I'd love it if one said "So what if I'm posh, I was born posh. You're a tw@t and you're a tw@t because you chose to be a tw@t".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hope,_Derbyshire
Northern labour tory marginal where WWC voters might be attracted to UKIP. How many are going to see Tories coming through the middle.
I really, honestly can see a Tory majority happening if there are 10-15....
#allthethrees
+142.75 UKIP
+40.13 LAB
-109.87 LD
-4.66 CON
There at the moment.
;-)
It's where the prison scenes in The Italian Job were filmed....
Gary Oldman, Ralph Fiennes, Richard Burton, Stanley Kubrick(!) and David Lynch have not.
Although to be fair, David Lynch's acceptance speech would be played backwards and read by a dwarf...
Cameron may well be best resigning if the numbers turned out like that and leave Miliband to struggle to put anything meaningful through, while ensuring he stays in place and trashes the Labour brand again.
Right, must get some shut-eye. Goodnight.
Written on two hours sleep and in bed watching the cricket.
For about 20 mins, I kept on looking at the data tables, and thinking there's something not quite right here BUT WHAT?
Speaking of which - when is some patriotic soul going to leak a copy of the latest draft of Chilcot I wonder?
WHY DON'T YOU GIVE US MOST OF YOUR MONEY THEN, YOU DON'T NEED MUCH SO GIVE IT TO SOME POOR PEOPLE SHORT ARSE.
No? Oh, ok.
Albert Owen still standing in Ynys Mon which means no change as far as I'm concerned. I don't think the Lib Dems are that safe in Ceredigeon and Brecon but I think they'll just about hold on in both. Popular Tory in Montgomeryshire standing (Glyn ?) means I've got that as a Tory hold. Will be interesting to see what happens to the Labour majorities in their South Wales strongholds - Lib Dems did really well in places like Merthyr last time, suspect the non-Labour vote will disperse far and wide leaving Labour perfectly safe with around 50% of the vote in many of those constituencies. But 2010 showed that with the ongoing wearing off of the heavy industry / coal mining legacy that South Wales is no longer quite the rock solid Labour heartland that it once was, not as though it affects the distribution of seats in any way in 2015.
In all seriousness: the financial markets are still, quite remarkably, almost oblivious to the political risk. What I think will happen if we don't get a stable-looking Conservative-led government is a rapid and indiscriminate sell-off of UK-quoted stocks, affecting both the FTSE100 and smaller companies. There will then be a period of readjustment as investors figure out that many companies are actually Miliband-proof, and may indeed even benefit if a tanking of the UK economy hits sterling. (Could be some good buying opportunities as the market re-appraises).
To my mind political betting cannot be disentangled from financial planning - they are different aspects of the same thing. In this particular case, IMO it's a no-brainer, a 'tails I win, heads I don't lose' scenario. There's no particular reason to stay long on the UK, which represents less than 10% of the world's market capitalisation:
https://www.vanguard.co.uk/documents/adv/literature/case-for-global-equities-tlisg.pdf
DYOR , this is not investment advice, past performance is no guide, etc etc.
Certainly plausible figures - I've given my Scotland (last night) and Wales predictions (tonight) - I need to work through the overall figures after going through England seat by seat (or the 100 -120 marginals!). I guess with being on SNP 51, I would come out with around 14 seats less for Labour and have the Tories around 285 right now, as I agree pretty much with all the others bar possibly UKIP that I would have around 2-3 right now.
What people say is just horrifically ugly. They would never feel it acceptable to be so abusive in person.
I tend not to read them, though i enjoy comments usually. Facebook and Twitter, and the similar youtube do nothing except allow unpleasant people to say ugly things.
The Labour vote there is very wwc UKIP vulnerable while the Conservative vote is surprisingly posh and so UKIP resistant.