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  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Pulpstar said:

    New ComRes phone poll

    Con 35 (+1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 10 (-3) Greens 7 (-1)

    It's that Kipper to Labour drift again.

    And the Green to Conservative one??

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Barnesian said:

    New ComRes phone poll

    Con 35 (+1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 10 (-3) Greens 7 (-1)

    Looks like a continuing move back to the two main parties from UKIP and Green.
    I disagree, it's the usual reallocation among the opposition parties.
    As I said, for a very long time now, the voters have made up their mind about wanting to get rid of this government but they are shopping around for the best opposition party.
  • Ok Ed and Labour is screwed on this

    https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/580458674507878400
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    New ComRes phone poll

    Con 35 (+1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 10 (-3) Greens 7 (-1)

    It's that Kipper to Labour drift again.

    And the Green to Conservative one??

    Net effects ;)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Poor old Nicola - leader in name only..

    ...but, but, but, the SNPers were telling us only yesterday that Alex had a low profile, didn't get involved, was content for Nicola to have all the limelight.
    You adding inability to read to your long list of downsides. What people said was he was taking the flak whilst she got on with being the most liked leader in UK.
    The others are taking pelters as Salmond pokes them.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited March 2015
    chestnut said:

    Carnyx said:

    No, they're not handing it a single penny - simply freeing up money that is already in the Scottish budget.

    So, it's being given twice.
    The £45m isn't being given twice. It isn't being given once. The £45m is already in teh Scottish budget. It's just being freed up for other spending or tax cuts.

    Benefits are not devolved. So there are no further Barnett Consequentials.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2015
    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Interesting talk over here in PB about scotland taking over the country, well I say that if Labour surrender to the SNP then at least they should make Salmond PM just to reverse his blackmail on him.
    At that point the SNP will die a painful political death as it has to keep scotland in the UK in order to keep Salmond as PM.

    There will be no doubt who is in charge when Miliband is summoned to Edinburgh in order to give his capitulation to Nicola in person.
    No problem, as long as Labour can screw an SNP PM the same way as the SNP is planning to screw a Labour PM.
    Just wonder what terms would Labour demand to keep Salmond as PM (an end to devolution perhaps?)
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Dair said:

    The £45m isn't being given twice. The £45m is already in teh Scottish budget. It's just being freed up for other spending or tax cuts.

    Benefits are not devolved. So there are no further Barnett Consequentials.

    So, who is paying the £45 million rent, if the Scottish government aren't?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Dair said:

    New ComRes phone poll

    Con 35 (+1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 10 (-3) Greens 7 (-1)

    Broken sleazy UKIP are finished.
    LD/Ukip crossover approaching
    Natalie Bennett/Ukip crossover may be too much to take
  • I've just remembered I've got the £100 riding on UKIP polling 9% or below
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    New ComRes phone poll

    Con 35 (+1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 10 (-3) Greens 7 (-1)

    MoE movement there, apart from the Con figure of course. ;)
    Assuming the usual scores in scotland then Labour are even in England with the Tories, ergo a 5.5% swing from 2010 towards Labour there.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    The £45m isn't being given twice. The £45m is already in teh Scottish budget. It's just being freed up for other spending or tax cuts.

    Benefits are not devolved. So there are no further Barnett Consequentials.

    So, who is paying the £45 million rent, if the Scottish government aren't?
    The Scottish government are paying it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: 'As we settle down at a table, Salmond orders a bottle of pink champagne – “to toast my book”'; @NewStatesman. Man of the people.

    Salmond is playing his role in this so damn well. It's working perfectly.

    Right now the Westminster media should be 100% focused on how well Sturgeon is playing with average English votes (highest rated leader UK wide) and how intelligent yet still popular she comes across.

    But they're completely taken in by the McGuffin.

    They won't even see Nicola coming.
    What has Sturgeon to do with English voters.
    Why do you think the Dutch Conquest of England in 1688 was a success? Tiny little Holland taking over England, a country with 8 times it's population (at the time). Little tiny Holland only a few decades from establishing itself and becoming independent from Spain.

    It's all about the spin.
    Of course when the Scottish Stuart dynasty took over the English crown, they avoided the old country as far as possible!

    Indeed did James I ever go back? Or Charles I?
    Of course they didn't.

    There were a great many ready and waiting to lynch them.
    Did Charles II or James II? After all this was a Union of the Crowns and preceeded the 1707 Union of Parliaments by a very long time.

    And to ask the obvious question. If the Scots were so against the Stuarts then why were they so keen to reinstate them in 1715 and 1745? After all the Scottish Covernantors fought on the side of the English Parliament in the Civil war. Though as I recall Halifax and Cromwell did visit Scotland with a few of their mates...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    The £45m isn't being given twice. The £45m is already in teh Scottish budget. It's just being freed up for other spending or tax cuts.

    Benefits are not devolved. So there are no further Barnett Consequentials.

    So, who is paying the £45 million rent, if the Scottish government aren't?
    The Scottish government are paying it.
    Yep, out of funds nominally for something else.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Dair said:

    The Scottish government are paying it.

    So, £45m won't be freed up, because they'll still be paying it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    I've just remembered I've got the £100 riding on UKIP polling 9% or below

    Yesterday I took £90 of Labour @ 4-6 on G Grimsby and £20 UKIP 1 seat to fill the hole I had there in my book at 11-2.
  • Oops some idiot (not me) has broken the ComRes embargo
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I've just remembered I've got the £100 riding on UKIP polling 9% or below

    It is a little early to count on that, but I gain a few quid on that one too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    Oops some idiot (not me) has broken the ComRes embargo

    What's the punishment. A hundred lashings (not the good kind)?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2015
    Today we seem to have the first day were Labour's odds on most betting markets for most seats is up since February 9th.

    Yesterday might have been Peak Tory on the most seats betting market.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: 'As we settle down at a table, Salmond orders a bottle of pink champagne – “to toast my book”'; @NewStatesman. Man of the people.

    Salmond is playing his role in this so damn well. It's working perfectly.

    Right now the Westminster media should be 100% focused on how well Sturgeon is playing with average English votes (highest rated leader UK wide) and how intelligent yet still popular she comes across.

    But they're completely taken in by the McGuffin.

    They won't even see Nicola coming.
    What has Sturgeon to do with English voters.
    Why do you think the Dutch Conquest of England in 1688 was a success? Tiny little Holland taking over England, a country with 8 times it's population (at the time). Little tiny Holland only a few decades from establishing itself and becoming independent from Spain.

    It's all about the spin.
    Of course when the Scottish Stuart dynasty took over the English crown, they avoided the old country as far as possible!

    Indeed did James I ever go back? Or Charles I?
    Of course they didn't.

    There were a great many ready and waiting to lynch them.
    Did Charles II or James II? After all this was a Union of the Crowns and preceeded the 1707 Union of Parliaments by a very long time.

    And to ask the obvious question. If the Scots were so against the Stuarts then why were they so keen to reinstate them in 1715 and 1745? After all the Scottish Covernantors fought on the side of the English Parliament in the Civil war. Though as I recall Halifax and Cromwell did visit Scotland with a few of their mates...
    They weren't.

    The Stuarts were beaten by an army predominantly made up of Scottish volunteers are Culloden. David Hume fought for the Hanoverians at the Battle of Prestonpans.

    In any case my post was a joke, the actual complexity of the lead up to the War of the Three Kingdoms** is far too complicated to go into any detail here.

    **You may call it the English Civil War, not arrogant at all in the Westminster Bubble.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    RobD said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    The £45m isn't being given twice. The £45m is already in teh Scottish budget. It's just being freed up for other spending or tax cuts.

    Benefits are not devolved. So there are no further Barnett Consequentials.

    So, who is paying the £45 million rent, if the Scottish government aren't?
    The Scottish government are paying it.
    Yep, out of funds nominally for something else.
    No, they are paying it from the Scottish Government budget. Westminster does not allocate spending for the Scottish Government. At all.
  • RobD said:

    Oops some idiot (not me) has broken the ComRes embargo

    What's the punishment. A hundred lashings (not the good kind)?
    Depends, usually you're given the choice of either

    1) Never getting any future embargoed polls

    2) Getting locked in a room with a load of Scot Nats

    3) Having to listen to discussions about whether AV is superior to at FPTP
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    edited March 2015
    Dair said:

    RobD said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    The £45m isn't being given twice. The £45m is already in teh Scottish budget. It's just being freed up for other spending or tax cuts.

    Benefits are not devolved. So there are no further Barnett Consequentials.

    So, who is paying the £45 million rent, if the Scottish government aren't?
    The Scottish government are paying it.
    Yep, out of funds nominally for something else.
    No, they are paying it from the Scottish Government budget. Westminster does not allocate spending for the Scottish Government. At all.
    I meant from the Scottish budget! I'm assuming it would have been spent on something else otherwise.

    Edit: to make it clear, I was agreeing with you :p
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    4 polls this week, 3 ties.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: 'As we settle down at a table, Salmond orders a bottle of pink champagne – “to toast my book”'; @NewStatesman. Man of the people.

    Salmond is playing his role in this so damn well. It's working perfectly.

    Right now the Westminster media should be 100% focused on how well Sturgeon is playing with average English votes (highest rated leader UK wide) and how intelligent yet still popular she comes across.

    But they're completely taken in by the McGuffin.

    They won't even see Nicola coming.
    What has Sturgeon to do with English voters.
    Why do you think the Dutch Conquest of England in 1688 was a success? Tiny little Holland taking over England, a country with 8 times it's population (at the time). Little tiny Holland only a few decades from establishing itself and becoming independent from Spain.

    It's all about the spin.
    Of course when the Scottish Stuart dynasty took over the English crown, they avoided the old country as far as possible!

    Indeed did James I ever go back? Or Charles I?
    Of course they didn't.

    There were a great many ready and waiting to lynch them.
    Did Charles II or James II? After all this was a Union of the Crowns and preceeded the 1707 Union of Parliaments by a very long time.

    And to ask the obvious question. If the Scots were so against the Stuarts then why were they so keen to reinstate them in 1715 and 1745? After all the Scottish Covernantors fought on the side of the English Parliament in the Civil war. Though as I recall Halifax and Cromwell did visit Scotland with a few of their mates...
    Not according to that great Scots' historian, Mel Gibson. For some reason the new documentary will not be funded (unlike "Braveheart").

    :troupe-of-jockanese-clowns:

    :bawling:
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Carnyx said:

    No, they're not handing it a single penny - simply freeing up money that is already in the Scottish budget.

    So, it's being given twice.
    The £45m isn't being given twice. It isn't being given once. The £45m is already in teh Scottish budget. It's just being freed up for other spending or tax cuts.

    Benefits are not devolved. So there are no further Barnett Consequentials.
    Right so when if we get EICIPM and he decides to give extra UK taxpayers money to people on housing benefit in Scotland with spare rooms in their houses, he will be giving such Scottish beneficiaries of his largesse the money direct rather than via the scottish government and the Scottish government will cease giving qan equivalent sum to such benefit claimants and spend the money on something else.

    Either way its more gold going north up the M6
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Danny565 said:

    4 polls this week, 3 ties.

    tick tock :p
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    The Scottish government are paying it.

    So, £45m won't be freed up, because they'll still be paying it?
    Not sure how simple to make it if you're still saying you don't get it.

    The Scottish Government has a budget. It decides how it is spent.

    The UK Treasury spends money on Scotland in non-Devolved matters.

    Benefits are not currently a Devolved matter.

    If the UK Government abolishes the Removal of the Spare Room Subsidy, then the UK Treasury will pay an additional £45m to social tenants in Scotland.

    The Scottish Government will no longer have to use £45m of its budget to make up the withdrawl of benefits. It will either spend it on something else or cut taxes.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2015
    Dair said:

    No, they are paying it from the Scottish Government budget. Westminster does not allocate spending for the Scottish Government. At all.

    They are spending £45m plugging the shortfall in Housing Benefit handouts.

    The only way they can free up the money is to stop plugging the gap, meaning tenants will drift into arrears etc.

    Unless, there is a second handout of £45m on top of the existing budget that plus the gap instead.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    chestnut said:

    New ComRes phone poll

    Con 35 (+1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 10 (-3) Greens 7 (-1)

    It's breaking into the first two horse race since 1979.
    Yes - I've been saying for some time that outside Scotland we're going to see a real focus on the big 2. For those who see LD/Green as potential Lab in marginals and UKIP as potential Con, the 15-10 margin is the largest I've seen for a while. It's more complicated than that in relaity, but I'd rather have a Labour lead bet on those figures.
    It may be particularly true in the Midlands, always a weaker area for the LDs.

    Though still no posters or literature in sleepy old Leicestershire. I have never known such electoral apathy, and despite the apparent closeness.

    I think it that while there is no love for the coalition, there is a grudging acknowledgement that the Coalition has mostly managed things really quite well. It will be a couple of years before it is realised what a golden period of government that we are leaving.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Danny565 said:

    4 polls this week, 3 ties.

    It's almost as if Labour and Conservatives are ... tied.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Polls moving to BJESUS and away from ARSE but still 6 weeks to go
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    chestnut said:

    New ComRes phone poll

    Con 35 (+1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 10 (-3) Greens 7 (-1)

    It's breaking into the first two horse race since 1979.
    Yes - I've been saying for some time that outside Scotland we're going to see a real focus on the big 2. For those who see LD/Green as potential Lab in marginals and UKIP as potential Con, the 15-10 margin is the largest I've seen for a while. It's more complicated than that in relaity, but I'd rather have a Labour lead bet on those figures.
    It may be particularly true in the Midlands, always a weaker area for the LDs.

    Though still no posters or literature in sleepy old Leicestershire. I have never known such electoral apathy, and despite the apparent closeness.

    I think it that while there is no love for the coalition, there is a grudging acknowledgement that the Coalition has mostly managed things really quite well. It will be a couple of years before it is realised what a golden period of government that we are leaving.
    I've got you down as a "Will vote Conservative at the ballot box, but will fill in online polls as Lib Dem" at the moment - is that right :D ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    4 polls this week, 3 ties.

    It's almost as if Labour and Conservatives are ... tied.
    You changed your view that Tories are 1% ahead?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    chestnut said:

    New ComRes phone poll

    Con 35 (+1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 10 (-3) Greens 7 (-1)

    It's breaking into the first two horse race since 1979.
    Yes - I've been saying for some time that outside Scotland we're going to see a real focus on the big 2. For those who see LD/Green as potential Lab in marginals and UKIP as potential Con, the 15-10 margin is the largest I've seen for a while. It's more complicated than that in relaity, but I'd rather have a Labour lead bet on those figures.
    It may be particularly true in the Midlands, always a weaker area for the LDs.

    Though still no posters or literature in sleepy old Leicestershire. I have never known such electoral apathy, and despite the apparent closeness.

    I think it that while there is no love for the coalition, there is a grudging acknowledgement that the Coalition has mostly managed things really quite well. It will be a couple of years before it is realised what a golden period of government that we are leaving.
    Don't agree that people think the Coalition have managed things well, but certainly agree that this complete apathy is something I've never known before. In my office (generally people who follow the news an average amount), there's only a handful who are interested in the election at all.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    4 polls this week, 3 ties.

    tick tock :p
    Tock Tick

    There is UNCROSSOVER
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    4 polls this week, 3 ties.

    It's almost as if Labour and Conservatives are ... tied.
    You changed your view that Tories are 1% ahead?
    My view is that the Conservatives are 0-0.5% ahead. I'm not sure I ever proclaimed they'd hit the sunlit uplands of 1% ahead.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    4 polls this week, 3 ties.

    tick tock :p
    Tock Tick

    There is UNCROSSOVER
    The technical term is "reverse double crossover", thank-you-very-much.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    RobD said:

    Dair said:

    RobD said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    The £45m isn't being given twice. The £45m is already in teh Scottish budget. It's just being freed up for other spending or tax cuts.

    Benefits are not devolved. So there are no further Barnett Consequentials.

    So, who is paying the £45 million rent, if the Scottish government aren't?
    The Scottish government are paying it.
    Yep, out of funds nominally for something else.
    No, they are paying it from the Scottish Government budget. Westminster does not allocate spending for the Scottish Government. At all.
    I meant from the Scottish budget! I'm assuming it would have been spent on something else otherwise.

    Edit: to make it clear, I was agreeing with you :p
    Not always. They will sometimes use free cash to cut taxes. For example the Barnett Consequentials of Osborne copying John Sinney's excellent Stamp Duty replacement were spent to reduce taxes - slashing the Land and Building Transaction Tax.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Why does he get a verified by twitter icon, yet the finance minister of Greece doesn't. Does this say something about Greece, or the Sun?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Dair said:

    If the UK Government abolishes the Removal of the Spare Room Subsidy, then the UK Treasury will pay an additional £45m to social tenants in Scotland.

    Precisely, it's another £45 million payment heading up to Scotland in addition to the original £45m.



  • RobD said:

    Why does he get a verified by twitter icon, yet the finance minister of Greece doesn't. Does this say something about Greece, or the Sun?
    Yes
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Carnyx said:

    No, they're not handing it a single penny - simply freeing up money that is already in the Scottish budget.

    So, it's being given twice.
    The £45m isn't being given twice. It isn't being given once. The £45m is already in teh Scottish budget. It's just being freed up for other spending or tax cuts.

    Benefits are not devolved. So there are no further Barnett Consequentials.
    Right so when if we get EICIPM and he decides to give extra UK taxpayers money to people on housing benefit in Scotland with spare rooms in their houses, he will be giving such Scottish beneficiaries of his largesse the money direct rather than via the scottish government and the Scottish government will cease giving qan equivalent sum to such benefit claimants and spend the money on something else.

    Either way its more gold going north up the M6
    Call it repatriation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    RobD said:

    Why does he get a verified by twitter icon, yet the finance minister of Greece doesn't. Does this say something about Greece, or the Sun?
    Yes
    Very enlightening. Can I expect more of the same from the fabled AV thread? ;)
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited March 2015
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Carnyx said:

    No, they're not handing it a single penny - simply freeing up money that is already in the Scottish budget.

    So, it's being given twice.
    The £45m isn't being given twice. It isn't being given once. The £45m is already in teh Scottish budget. It's just being freed up for other spending or tax cuts.

    Benefits are not devolved. So there are no further Barnett Consequentials.
    Right so when if we get EICIPM and he decides to give extra UK taxpayers money to people on housing benefit in Scotland with spare rooms in their houses, he will be giving such Scottish beneficiaries of his largesse the money direct rather than via the scottish government and the Scottish government will cease giving qan equivalent sum to such benefit claimants and spend the money on something else.

    Either way its more gold going north up the M6
    Call it repatriation.
    lol

    "Scottish Adjacent Waters Boundaries Order 1999.

    Just a taster of the the sort of thing Scotland would have to sign up for in independence treaty negotiations.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550
    From next week we start the official "balanced" coverage on BBC etc.

    How will that change the parties, or will it be a nil score draw?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    It will be a couple of years before it is realised what a golden period of government that we are leaving.

    And we consider ourselves lucky to have survived austerity with some public services still in existence no thanks to the LDs
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Why does he get a verified by twitter icon, yet the finance minister of Greece doesn't. Does this say something about Greece, or the Sun?
    Yes
    Very enlightening. Can I expect more of the same from the fabled AV thread? ;)
    Yes, I'm editing PB on Friday, so it might make an appearance then.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    From next week we start the official "balanced" coverage on BBC etc.

    How will that change the parties, or will it be a nil score draw?

    I reckon the BBC balances out the Daily Mail well enough.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Why does he get a verified by twitter icon, yet the finance minister of Greece doesn't. Does this say something about Greece, or the Sun?
    Yes
    Very enlightening. Can I expect more of the same from the fabled AV thread? ;)
    Yes, I'm editing PB on Friday, so it might make an appearance then.
    So, who's going to defect? :p
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TSE retweeted
    Stig Abell ‏@StigAbell 5m5 minutes ago
    Interesting Sun poll due tonight: do the public care about Cameron's "third term" gaffe?

    No course not unless they surveyed Lynton Crosby
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Why does he get a verified by twitter icon, yet the finance minister of Greece doesn't. Does this say something about Greece, or the Sun?
    Yes
    Very enlightening. Can I expect more of the same from the fabled AV thread? ;)
    Yes, I'm editing PB on Friday, so it might make an appearance then.
    So, who's going to defect? :p
    Ken Clarke's going to join UKIP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Why does he get a verified by twitter icon, yet the finance minister of Greece doesn't. Does this say something about Greece, or the Sun?
    Yes
    Very enlightening. Can I expect more of the same from the fabled AV thread? ;)
    Yes, I'm editing PB on Friday, so it might make an appearance then.
    So, who's going to defect? :p
    Ken Clarke's going to join UKIP
    I thought Simon Danczuk was joining the Greens.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Why does he get a verified by twitter icon, yet the finance minister of Greece doesn't. Does this say something about Greece, or the Sun?
    Yes
    Very enlightening. Can I expect more of the same from the fabled AV thread? ;)
    Yes, I'm editing PB on Friday, so it might make an appearance then.
    So, who's going to defect? :p
    Ken Clarke's going to join UKIP
    I thought Simon Danczuk was joining the Greens.
    Only after Farage defects to Respect.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    David Cameron heckled by pensioners at Age UK rally
    Watch the Prime Minister get heckled as he tries to answer questions on the NHS at Age UK's General Election rally.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11492100/David-Cameron-heckled-by-pensioners-at-Age-UK-rally.html?WT.mc_id=e_DM7411&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FPM_New&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FPM_New_2015_03_24&utm_campaign=DM7411

    Cameron dead in the water? What these pensioners are saying is that the polls are so wrong it's unbelievable.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,971
    edited March 2015
    Can we all pretend that the ComRes poll wasn't accidentally published early. The embargo ends at 00.01
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    chestnut said:

    New ComRes phone poll

    Con 35 (+1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 10 (-3) Greens 7 (-1)

    It's breaking into the first two horse race since 1979.
    Yes - I've been saying for some time that outside Scotland we're going to see a real focus on the big 2. For those who see LD/Green as potential Lab in marginals and UKIP as potential Con, the 15-10 margin is the largest I've seen for a while. It's more complicated than that in relaity, but I'd rather have a Labour lead bet on those figures.
    It may be particularly true in the Midlands, always a weaker area for the LDs.

    Though still no posters or literature in sleepy old Leicestershire. I have never known such electoral apathy, and despite the apparent closeness.

    I think it that while there is no love for the coalition, there is a grudging acknowledgement that the Coalition has mostly managed things really quite well. It will be a couple of years before it is realised what a golden period of government that we are leaving.
    I've got you down as a "Will vote Conservative at the ballot box, but will fill in online polls as Lib Dem" at the moment - is that right :D ?
    I live in a safe seat so can vote as I please! but we do have some LDs on the council. I shall be voting LD, ad I am a pro-coalition LD. They are likely to hold their council seats, but will not make a dent in the safe majorities locally for either side.

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    MikeK said:

    David Cameron heckled by pensioners at Age UK rally
    Watch the Prime Minister get heckled as he tries to answer questions on the NHS at Age UK's General Election rally.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11492100/David-Cameron-heckled-by-pensioners-at-Age-UK-rally.html?WT.mc_id=e_DM7411&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FPM_New&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FPM_New_2015_03_24&utm_campaign=DM7411

    Cameron dead in the water? What these pensioners are saying is that the polls are so wrong it's unbelievable.

    The old dear at the end was quite right - it's not the press' meeting it's the pensioners. He should be answering their questions. His refusal to go along with her should cost him this election.

    It's a shame it won't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited March 2015

    Can we all pretend that the ComRes poll wasn't accidentally published early. The embargo ends at 00.01

    Is this like when Megan became Gemma :P ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,971
    edited March 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Can we all pretend that the ComRes poll wasn't accidentally published early. The embargo ends at 00.01

    Is this like when Megan became Gemma :P ?
    My most stressful time when editing PB is when I'm sitting on an embargoed poll, and I'm worried I'm going to suffer from premature posting.

    I feel sorry for the chaps who accidentally published it early.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Can we all pretend that the ComRes poll wasn't accidentally published early. The embargo ends at 00.01

    Is this like when Megan became Gemma :P ?
    I was going to say isn't it illegal to name her now but I see you have edited it.

    I'm very surprised the Mail still has the story up on its website.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    TSE retweeted
    Stig Abell ‏@StigAbell 5m5 minutes ago
    Interesting Sun poll due tonight: do the public care about Cameron's "third term" gaffe?

    No course not unless they surveyed Lynton Crosby

    I have to admit to not fully understanding why it's considered a gaffe at all. But from what I do understand, the problems it will supposedly cause him aren't about it directly making him less popular with the public. I'd be stunned if the poll showed a lot of people cared.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    Can someone from the Labour side who thinks ending the spare-room subsidy is so iniquitous please tell my friend why he has to wait years for a house to come available to allow his kids not to be all bunked up in one room? Just because people who don't have a need of the room will still be allowed to keep it - and have the cost for that room paid for out of my friend's small contribution to Income Tax? Because he is spitting mad about it....

    Because your lot flogged all the council houses.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    I notice that the Tories have sent out Grant Shapps to the BBC3 "meet the yuff" program, where as obviously Ed did for Labour. Maybe the Tories hope the yuff confuse Mr Green with Professor Green?
  • TSE retweeted
    Stig Abell ‏@StigAbell 5m5 minutes ago
    Interesting Sun poll due tonight: do the public care about Cameron's "third term" gaffe?

    No course not unless they surveyed Lynton Crosby

    I have to admit to not fully understanding why it's considered a gaffe at all. But from what I do understand, the problems it will supposedly cause him aren't about it directly making him less popular with the public. I'd be stunned if the poll showed a lot of people cared.
    My thoughts were it wasn't a gaffe per se, where Dave went wrong was to mention names.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    24 March 2010: YG: Con 36 Lab 34 LD 17
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Tough audience these kids tbh !
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Any polls been published so far tonight?

    :lol::lol:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    edited March 2015
    chestnut said:

    24 March 2010: YG: Con 36 Lab 34 LD 17

    Prediction, or actual values?

    Oh, 2010.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Ave_it said:

    Any polls been published so far tonight?

    :lol::lol:

    Move along, nothing to see here.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    chestnut said:

    24 March 2010: YG: Con 36 Lab 34 LD 17

    So the polla are pretty well identical to 2010 and with the libdem plunge labour and tory getting same as last time would mean DICIPM
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    chestnut said:

    24 March 2010: YG: Con 36 Lab 34 LD 17

    UnSwingback to opposition by GE
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    BenM said:

    Can someone from the Labour side who thinks ending the spare-room subsidy is so iniquitous please tell my friend why he has to wait years for a house to come available to allow his kids not to be all bunked up in one room? Just because people who don't have a need of the room will still be allowed to keep it - and have the cost for that room paid for out of my friend's small contribution to Income Tax? Because he is spitting mad about it....

    Because your lot flogged all the council houses.
    And because after 1979 both parties said 'the market would provide'. (Not a view shared by those who are homeless or living in sheds.)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    TSE retweeted
    Stig Abell ‏@StigAbell 5m5 minutes ago
    Interesting Sun poll due tonight: do the public care about Cameron's "third term" gaffe?

    No course not unless they surveyed Lynton Crosby

    I have to admit to not fully understanding why it's considered a gaffe at all. But from what I do understand, the problems it will supposedly cause him aren't about it directly making him less popular with the public. I'd be stunned if the poll showed a lot of people cared.
    My thoughts were it wasn't a gaffe per se, where Dave went wrong was to mention names.
    I don't know, he did give a fairly presumptive answer (or at least an answer which could easily be interpreted that way). There was no "If I'm lucky enough to be re-elected" or similar qualifier. More to the point, why get drawn on it at all? He could have just said "I'm focused on a second term at the moment".

    The harm to the public is minor though, almost no-one cares. The harm is if he does win, because his cabinet ministers etc will be fighting for the job even more so than if he'd kept schtum. They'll be pressuring him to step down earlier, and have no excuse not to openly scheme for who the next leader will be. Naming names was particularly unfortunate, because it means that any other contenders will need to make a splash now that the top tier has been officially announced. So in two ways Cameron has given licence to MPs to campaign for his job, which will make them bolder than before.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    RobD said:

    chestnut said:

    24 March 2010: YG: Con 36 Lab 34 LD 17

    Prediction, or actual values?

    Oh, 2010.
    I thought that was a prediction for tonight - then I saw the date :lol:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Ave_it said:

    RobD said:

    chestnut said:

    24 March 2010: YG: Con 36 Lab 34 LD 17

    Prediction, or actual values?

    Oh, 2010.
    I thought that was a prediction for tonight - then I saw the date :lol:
    I saw the LD figure first, and was pretty bemused at the LD +10 figure!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    28/3/10 YG more or less spot on with final result

    YouGov/Sun: CON 39%(+2), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 18%(-1)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    chestnut said:

    24 March 2010: YG: Con 36 Lab 34 LD 17

    So the polla are pretty well identical to 2010 and with the libdem plunge labour and tory getting same as last time would mean DICIPM
    Errm they really aren't. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    BenM said:

    Can someone from the Labour side who thinks ending the spare-room subsidy is so iniquitous please tell my friend why he has to wait years for a house to come available to allow his kids not to be all bunked up in one room? Just because people who don't have a need of the room will still be allowed to keep it - and have the cost for that room paid for out of my friend's small contribution to Income Tax? Because he is spitting mad about it....

    Because your lot flogged all the council houses.
    So why didn't Labour build any between 1997 and 2010 ?

    ' Labour should “apologise” for its poor record of building social housing, the party’s own London housing spokesman has said.

    Tom Copley said it galled him that Margaret Thatcher’s government built more council flats and houses in a single year than Tony Blair and Gordon Brown managed over 13 years in power. '

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-should-apologise-for-social-housing-failure-8932797.html
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    BenM said:

    Can someone from the Labour side who thinks ending the spare-room subsidy is so iniquitous please tell my friend why he has to wait years for a house to come available to allow his kids not to be all bunked up in one room? Just because people who don't have a need of the room will still be allowed to keep it - and have the cost for that room paid for out of my friend's small contribution to Income Tax? Because he is spitting mad about it....

    Because your lot flogged all the council houses.
    And because after 1979 both parties said 'the market would provide'. (Not a view shared by those who are homeless or living in sheds.)

    statutory homeless:

    1979 - 55,530
    2013 - 56,930

    UK population
    1979 56.25 mil
    2013 64.1 mil

    Seems to me the market is providing pretty darn well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Lessen from 2010 coming into Home stretch seems to be treat surges during April with extreme caution.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714
    RobD said:

    chestnut said:

    24 March 2010: YG: Con 36 Lab 34 LD 17

    Prediction, or actual values?

    Oh, 2010.
    I can imagine the reaction that would have provoked on here at the time.

    'Wibbly wobbly Tory bottoms.'

    'Osborne has to go.'

    'Promise an EU referendum. NOW.'

    'That Michael Crick really is a ...'
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Pulpstar said:

    Lessen from 2010 coming into Home stretch seems to be treat surges during April with extreme caution.

    Except Tory surges, of course. That will be the electorate coming to their senses... :p
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    @thescreamingeagles

    That 9% Ukip bets with me isn't it ? £100@evs

    Happy to double up if you are, or more
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    BenM said:

    Can someone from the Labour side who thinks ending the spare-room subsidy is so iniquitous please tell my friend why he has to wait years for a house to come available to allow his kids not to be all bunked up in one room? Just because people who don't have a need of the room will still be allowed to keep it - and have the cost for that room paid for out of my friend's small contribution to Income Tax? Because he is spitting mad about it....

    Because your lot flogged all the council houses.
    A third of all council house sales happened under Labour, and 2/3 of transfers from councils to housing associations happened under Labour.

    The problem we have is not so much not enough council houses, but not enough houses. The population has grown by eight million, and households are more fragmented.

    If not a single council house was sold we would still have a shortage.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I still think UKIP are going to go up during the campaign, as they did in both 2013 and 2014.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Amazingly, Cameron's 'no third term' pronouncement has provoked the first time in a very long time that someone I know initiated a conversation about politics with me at work, and very first thing in the morning too. Of all the political events these past years, that statement was apparently the one that engaged at least one person I know enough to bring it up in casual conversation the next morning. Remarkable really.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lessen from 2010 coming into Home stretch seems to be treat surges during April with extreme caution.

    Except Tory surges, of course. That will be the electorate coming to their senses... :p
    :lol::lol::lol:

    Camo's coming home!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Ave_it said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lessen from 2010 coming into Home stretch seems to be treat surges during April with extreme caution.

    Except Tory surges, of course. That will be the electorate coming to their senses... :p
    :lol::lol::lol:

    Camo's coming home!
    I Just hope he doesn't come too soon :lol:
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Pulpstar said:

    From next week we start the official "balanced" coverage on BBC etc.

    How will that change the parties, or will it be a nil score draw?

    I reckon the BBC balances out the Daily Mail well enough.
    The daily mail a public service news provider subsidized by a 3bn tax, who knew.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Ave_it said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lessen from 2010 coming into Home stretch seems to be treat surges during April with extreme caution.

    Except Tory surges, of course. That will be the electorate coming to their senses... :p
    :lol::lol::lol:

    Camo's coming home!
    To Chipping Norton on 8th May 2015

    Removal Van from Downing St. with GO

    They are all in it together.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited March 2015

    TSE retweeted
    Stig Abell ‏@StigAbell 5m5 minutes ago
    Interesting Sun poll due tonight: do the public care about Cameron's "third term" gaffe?

    No course not unless they surveyed Lynton Crosby

    I have to admit to not fully understanding why it's considered a gaffe at all. But from what I do understand, the problems it will supposedly cause him aren't about it directly making him less popular with the public. I'd be stunned if the poll showed a lot of people cared.
    My thoughts were it wasn't a gaffe per se, where Dave went wrong was to mention names.
    The fact he intends to run a full second term is in many ways more relevant than what he'd do the term after, since that's for another election anyway - this way you know what you get for who you're voting for (nominally the constituency MP, I know, but in practice the identity of the potential PM matters too).

    I think it's more reassuring than voting Blair and not knowing whether or not you're allegedly going to get Brown later on.

    The fact it rules out voting for Cameron and getting Osborne - at least this term - might be a plus for the Tories.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: 'As we settle down at a table, Salmond orders a bottle of pink champagne – “to toast my book”'; @NewStatesman. Man of the people.

    Salmond is playing his role in this so damn well. It's working perfectly.

    Right now the Westminster media should be 100% focused on how well Sturgeon is playing with average English votes (highest rated leader UK wide) and how intelligent yet still popular she comes across.

    But they're completely taken in by the McGuffin.

    They won't even see Nicola coming.
    What has Sturgeon to do with English voters.
    Why do you think the Dutch Conquest of England in 1688 was a success? Tiny little Holland taking over England, a country with 8 times it's population (at the time). Little tiny Holland only a few decades from establishing itself and becoming independent from Spain.

    It's all about the spin.
    Of course when the Scottish Stuart dynasty took over the English crown, they avoided the old country as far as possible!

    Indeed did James I ever go back? Or Charles I?
    Of course they didn't.

    There were a great many ready and waiting to lynch them.
    Did Charles II or James II? After all this was a Union of the Crowns and preceeded the 1707 Union of Parliaments by a very long time.

    And to ask the obvious question. If the Scots were so against the Stuarts then why were they so keen to reinstate them in 1715 and 1745? After all the Scottish Covernantors fought on the side of the English Parliament in the Civil war. Though as I recall Halifax and Cromwell did visit Scotland with a few of their mates...
    The Wars of the Covenant against the Stuarts lasted arguably from 1638-ish to 1746, on and off. They were very much a Scottish civil war as well as everything else - and in fact a great many Scots were on the opposite side to the Stuarts in 1715 and 1745. And for that matter the Covenanters fought on the Royal side for the later part of the nastiness of the 1640s and 1650s. Vide Dunbar and Worcester. Just some of the reasons it's such a fascinating period of history, and one which has left a mark from the islands of the Channel to Shetland.



  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    Ave_it said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lessen from 2010 coming into Home stretch seems to be treat surges during April with extreme caution.

    Except Tory surges, of course. That will be the electorate coming to their senses... :p
    :lol::lol::lol:

    Camo's coming home!
    To Chipping Norton on 8th May 2015

    Removal Van from Downing St. with GO

    They are all in it together.
    I wonder if he'll do a Brown and cut the PMs salary by 25%. ;)
  • isam said:

    @thescreamingeagles

    That 9% Ukip bets with me isn't it ? £100@evs

    Happy to double up if you are, or more

    Yes, that's with me, we've also got a bet on the ICM phone poll being the most accurate pollster on UKIP's GB share of the vote.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    @thescreamingeagles

    That 9% Ukip bets with me isn't it ? £100@evs

    Happy to double up if you are, or more

    Yes, that's with me, we've also got a bet on the ICM phone poll being the most accurate pollster on UKIP's GB share of the vote.
    Want to increase the stakes on either?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,971
    edited March 2015
    isam said:

    isam said:

    @thescreamingeagles

    That 9% Ukip bets with me isn't it ? £100@evs

    Happy to double up if you are, or more

    Yes, that's with me, we've also got a bet on the ICM phone poll being the most accurate pollster on UKIP's GB share of the vote.
    Want to increase the stakes on either?
    No thanks, I've got a perfectly balanced book on those bets.
This discussion has been closed.