I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
At least one part of the Grauniad is playing a straight bat:
Yet another jury has cleared more Sun journalists who were charged with offences related to the paying of public officials.
It is further confirmation that the police and the Crown Prosecution Service should not have brought such charges against people who were engaged in a practice that, for many years, was considered to be entirely normal journalistic activity at papers across Fleet Street.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
Perfect time to Miliband proof investments I think.
I'm looking forward to the definition of a 'Miliband proof investment'
A basket of Swiss francs and Greenbacks. Euros if you're feeling adventurous.
A cousin of mine was gloating that he had kept a bunch of cash (he's looking to buy a house) in USD in the Bank of Georgia... 5% interest plus 10% on the FX...
You should change your profile picture to that of Ms Cole's tattoo.
The gag is that Ms F-V is anything but a pop strumpet. Her husband's very high profile cheating clearly affected her very deeply, and still does.
Like Congressman Weiner and Brooks Newmark, he was another one who liked sending photos of his private parts to all and sundry, a fetish which I find inexplicable.
Why do they think women will be interested in seeing a middle aged man's private parts? Or, come to think of it, at any age?
There is (I'm told) a website called Rate My ****, which is dedicated to the female equivalent.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
Havent they gone for enough of our rights without attacking our right to sit at home on election day as well?!
Actually, I'm not averse to making voting compulsory - so long as there's a RON option.
Vote RON!
Talk about the worst of both worlds - making people vote in the first place and then justifying it by saying that they are allowed to vote to be forced to vote a second time!
My score = 5 Your answers place you on the left of the political centre in comparison with the overall population in 2014.
Though the questions were rigged to move me further to the right than I should be. Bloody biased BBC again!
This was me:
You scored 12 out of 25 A score of 5 is the furthest left and 25 is the furthest right. Around a fifth of the population have similar views to you. Your answers place you close to the centre of political opinion in most years.
Now that Sir Malcolm is stepping down (and I have still not forgiven him) I will be considering the offering of Mr Farage.
What have you not forgiven him for - stepping down or the loose talk that resulted in him stepping down?
Mr Neil, I am distraught at Sir Malcolm's clear lack of judgement in speaking so inopportunely to the undercover reporter. I have always viewed him as a man of utmost integrity and he has shaken me to the quick.
Mr Farage however has shown the utmost probity.
Ever since nuala became Nuala her taste in dodgy, middle-aged, white politicians has gone downhill!
10/1 is perhaps a bit long for Labour but looking at the breakdown of the Survation poll it seems UKIP have been eating into the Labour vote in Cliftonville and it's the Tory vote in Sandwich that will prove more difficult to win round. I wouldn't say Labour are finished in Kent but in this seat they're not going to poll above 35% and thus for them to win you'd need the mother of all 3 way marginals. Had Sandys stayed on Nigel would be finding life much tougher. I agree that by shaping the campaign as a straight UKIP vs Labour battle it will help the former, the reality is that it will probably be UKIP vs Tory.
BROM-I agree the Tory supporters in and around Sandwich is a key battle ground in a UKIP/Tory fight. I suspect how they turnout will be key to either side winning.
I campaigned quite a lot last time in the Newington area-whilst it might be Labour at local Elections it has very strong BNP / UKIP leanings. This area and others like it -such as Cliftonville-are the Labour areas that UKIP need to turnout to win the seat.
Laura is a genuinely nice person BUT she was very pro Europe and a lot of local Tories knew that-Labour knew that and so did Farge which is why I am sure he had been eyeing up Thanet S for so long. Mackinlay's UKIP past was a key reason he got the nomination.
Interesting views. My family loosely know Laura and say she is a lovely person, though given your comments perhaps she is more suited to a 'leafier' Conservative seat. I suppose Mackinlay's UKIP past may even out the incumbency factor that the Tories lost through Sandys standing down. I've no doubt this will be a close run thing and nothing will be taken for granted until election night itself. I do however think despite some views on this site that Farage did pick the correct seat and would not have been better off fighting in areas where he would be more of an outsider candidate such as Boston or Great Yarmouth.
I'd be interested to know what the feeling on the ground is in North Thanet and whether UKIP's support spreads into the next constituency which demographically I see as being something of a mirror image.
Thanet N:-is a dull contest-nothing exciting ever happens there! Although a certain Mrs T Blair stood here in 1983!
Dover / Deal to the South:-Charlie Elphicke is well regarded and believes the best way to reform Brussels is to tow it 250 miles and sink in the middle of the North Sea. I doubt very much UKIP will cause him any great problems.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
... which is manned to ensure the doors open and shut safely (although it might be possible for that function to be performed from the platform, rather than the train, it still means that strikes would close down the system).
The amount of safety-related legislation on the railways is amazing; even greater than for airlines.
10/1 is perhaps a bit long for Labour but looking at the breakdown of the Survation poll it seems UKIP have been eating into the Labour vote in Cliftonville and it's the Tory vote in Sandwich that will prove more difficult to win round. I wouldn't say Labour are finished in Kent but in this seat they're not going to poll above 35% and thus for them to win you'd need the mother of all 3 way marginals. Had Sandys stayed on Nigel would be finding life much tougher. I agree that by shaping the campaign as a straight UKIP vs Labour battle it will help the former, the reality is that it will probably be UKIP vs Tory.
BROM-I agree the Tory supporters in and around Sandwich is a key battle ground in a UKIP/Tory fight. I suspect how they turnout will be key to either side winning.
I campaigned quite a lot last time in the Newington area-whilst it might be Labour at local Elections it has very strong BNP / UKIP leanings. This area and others like it -such as Cliftonville-are the Labour areas that UKIP need to turnout to win the seat.
Laura is a genuinely nice person BUT she was very pro Europe and a lot of local Tories knew that-Labour knew that and so did Farge which is why I am sure he had been eyeing up Thanet S for so long. Mackinlay's UKIP past was a key reason he got the nomination.
Which way will Hacklinge go (The T South part obviously) have 3 ducks living on a farm there that I used to own (Long story)
HACKLINGE !!!
Bloody hell-I never thought the metropolis of Hacklinge would ever get a mention unless Farage was caught at the near-by D*gging site
If the good citizens of Hacklinge (all 12 of them!!) decide the outcome of Thanet S Farage may well have smoked himself to death during the numerous recounts
My score = 5 Your answers place you on the left of the political centre in comparison with the overall population in 2014.
Though the questions were rigged to move me further to the right than I should be. Bloody biased BBC again!
This was me:
You scored 12 out of 25 A score of 5 is the furthest left and 25 is the furthest right. Around a fifth of the population have similar views to you. Your answers place you close to the centre of political opinion in most years.
"... I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits."
We were talking about this issue at the last meeting of the Hurstpierpoint & District Gentlemen's Temperance Association. Our Chairman (a retired senior BA Captain) pointed out that losing our bus passes would be the equivalent of having to forgo, or at least find the money for, the third brandy at our monthly Brighton luncheon. The Treasurer (just back from spending the winter in the Far East, as usual) pointed out that the two-hundred quid winter fuel allowance only just about covered the cost of taking his wife out for their anniversary dinner and really it needed to be increased. The meeting agreed that without the universal pensioner benefits none there would ever vote Conservative ever again.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
... which is manned to ensure the doors open and shut safely (although it might be possible for that function to be performed from the platform, rather than the train, it still means that strikes would close down the system).
The amount of safety-related legislation on the railways is amazing; even greater than for airlines.
Last week I was shocked to discover that the Sheffield trams have staff to sell you your ticket. There I was searching up and down the platform for a ticket machine!
What are the thoughts on Charles Kennedy surviving? He clearly faces the challenge of the SNP Tsunami, but he wasn't in Govt and is an independent minded MP.
But has he been a Westminster Cheerleader in Scotland and has his personal problems hit his personal vote?
I am tempted to bet that he will survive but I am not sure if my heart is ruling my head as I fear for him personally if he was defeated.
"... I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits."
We were talking about this issue at the last meeting of the Hurstpierpoint & District Gentlemen's Temperance Association. Our Chairman (a retired senior BA Captain) pointed out that losing our bus passes would be the equivalent of having to forgo, or at least find the money for, the third brandy at our monthly Brighton luncheon. The Treasurer (just back from spending the winter in the Far East, as usual) pointed out that the two-hundred quid winter fuel allowance only just about covered the cost of taking his wife out for their anniversary dinner and really it needed to be increased. The meeting agreed that without the universal pensioner benefits none there would ever vote Conservative ever again.
I'm just talking about rolling it into the state pension. That way we save on administration costs and you get it spread out over 12 months.
Advantage is that your wife doesn't see a nice cheque for £200 arrive and start thinking about the sales
"To what extent do you agree or disagree that government should redistribute income from the better off to those who are less well off?"
I agree strongly that there should be taxes and a welfare system, so can't disagree with it which means I have to start off "left of centre".
Who on the right doesn't agree strongly that we should have taxes? Are there really people out there who think no redistribution of income should take place at all?
What are the thoughts on Charles Kennedy surviving? He clearly faces the challenge of the SNP Tsunami, but he wasn't in Govt and is an independent minded MP.
But has he been a Westminster Cheerleader in Scotland and has his personal problems hit his personal vote?
I am tempted to bet that he will survive but I am not sure if my heart is ruling my head as I fear for him personally if he was defeated.
It's very hard to call right now.
8-11 is probably a fair reflection of his chances if slightly skinny.
6-5 SNP; 5-6 Lib Dem ?
5-4 SNP is probably a slightly better bet. I make it very marginal at the prices though.
My score = 5 Your answers place you on the left of the political centre in comparison with the overall population in 2014.
Though the questions were rigged to move me further to the right than I should be. Bloody biased BBC again!
This was me:
You scored 12 out of 25 A score of 5 is the furthest left and 25 is the furthest right. Around a fifth of the population have similar views to you. Your answers place you close to the centre of political opinion in most years.
This was me: You scored 15 out of 25
A score of 5 is the furthest left and 25 is the furthest right. Around a fifth of the population have similar views to you. You would have been close to the centre of the political spectrum from 2004-2007 and in 2010.
"To what extent do you agree or disagree that government should redistribute income from the better off to those who are less well off?"
I agree strongly that there should be taxes and a welfare system, so can't disagree with it which means I have to start off "left of centre".
Who on the right doesn't agree strongly that we should have taxes? Are there really people out there who think no redistribution of income should take place at all?
I agreed with that, still ended up on the political right.
"... I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits."
We were talking about this issue at the last meeting of the Hurstpierpoint & District Gentlemen's Temperance Association. Our Chairman (a retired senior BA Captain) pointed out that losing our bus passes would be the equivalent of having to forgo, or at least find the money for, the third brandy at our monthly Brighton luncheon. The Treasurer (just back from spending the winter in the Far East, as usual) pointed out that the two-hundred quid winter fuel allowance only just about covered the cost of taking his wife out for their anniversary dinner and really it needed to be increased. The meeting agreed that without the universal pensioner benefits none there would ever vote Conservative ever again.
I'm just talking about rolling it into the state pension. That way we save on administration costs and you get it spread out over 12 months.
Advantage is that your wife doesn't see a nice cheque for £200 arrive and start thinking about the sales
Politically rolling the benefit into the pension is probably the only way such benefits could be abolished but I would prefer it were possible to give them only to those that need them.
Given that only 25 seats are priced for the SNP at 1/2 or shorter, there still seems to be value here if (like me) you believe there is a better than two in three chance that the SNP will get more than 25 seats. The Labour seats where the SNP are priced between 1/2 and 2/1 continue to look worthy of close scrutiny.
There are, however, only three Scottish seats where the SNP are priced at longer than 2/1: East Renfrewshire, Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk and Orkney & Shetland.
There are now a huge number of bookies in the Scottish seat markets.
On the evidence of Ashcroft Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale being the same price as Glasgow North East is a bit bonkers. Glasgow North East is next to Renfrewshire East as my "last to go down on the SLab ship" seats even if the SNP storm the rest of the country. DCT is a straight knife edge battle between Con and SNP were every vote counts.
DCT is value in my book and Glasgow NE is a leave alone at that price.
3.5 units DCT Tories @ 4-5; 2.5 units DCT @ 2-1 SNP is the bet I reckon.
Odds look right to me.
Or wrong
I've just gone mad and put a fiver on SNP to take Orkney & Shetlands.
FPT and Orkney. The Scotland polls which consistently give 47% to SNP have blown my switching model so I have simplified it by excluding Green and UKIP switching and relying heavily on the Scottish polls (see previous thread) which seem remarkably consistent.
In Scotland, Con got 17% in 2010 and are about the same now - so no switching there.
Lab got 43% in 2010 and are about 27% now. This implies that about 37% of former Lab voters have gone over to SNP.
This effect alone cuts the Labour seats down to 4.
The LibDems have gone from 18% to about 4%,. This implies that about 78% have switched to the SNP. There will be a differential between LibDem seats/marginals and non-marginals. If I assume 100% of LibDems in non-marginals switch to SNP, it still means that 30% of LibDems in LibDem seats/marginals also switch to the SNP. It is the only way to reconcile the numbers.
Putting those assumptions in the model gives the SNP every seat except Orkney and Ross (and Ross is a LibDem majority of only 100).
I have DCT as an SNP majority of 500 (1%) over Con, and Glasgow NE as an SNP majority of 1000 (2%) over Lab.
The UK picture then becomes
Con 261 seats Lab 281 seats LD 28 seats SNP 56 seats UKIP 2 seats Grn 1 seat
If those Scottish polls are anything like correct I can't see any alternative to an SNP landslide.
Just saw the Populus poll. Frustrating that a crap pollster still gets to publish their results.....
Strange - Populus wasn't "crap" when it showed a tie on Monday. Now, because the over-hyped Budget hasn't delivered a 5-point boost to your side, it's "crap".
My score = 5 Your answers place you on the left of the political centre in comparison with the overall population in 2014.
Though the questions were rigged to move me further to the right than I should be. Bloody biased BBC again!
This was me:
You scored 12 out of 25 A score of 5 is the furthest left and 25 is the furthest right. Around a fifth of the population have similar views to you. Your answers place you close to the centre of political opinion in most years.
This was me: You scored 15 out of 25
A score of 5 is the furthest left and 25 is the furthest right. Around a fifth of the population have similar views to you. You would have been close to the centre of the political spectrum from 2004-2007 and in 2010.
15 is pretty much middle of the road Democrat territory I'd have thought, but you're Republican iirc ?
Just saw the Populus poll. Frustrating that a crap pollster still gets to publish their results.....
Strange - Populus wasn't "crap" when it showed a tie on Monday. Now, because the over-hyped Budget hasn't delivered a 5-point boost to your side, it's "crap".
"... I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits."
We were talking about this issue at the last meeting of the Hurstpierpoint & District Gentlemen's Temperance Association. Our Chairman (a retired senior BA Captain) pointed out that losing our bus passes would be the equivalent of having to forgo, or at least find the money for, the third brandy at our monthly Brighton luncheon. The Treasurer (just back from spending the winter in the Far East, as usual) pointed out that the two-hundred quid winter fuel allowance only just about covered the cost of taking his wife out for their anniversary dinner and really it needed to be increased. The meeting agreed that without the universal pensioner benefits none there would ever vote Conservative ever again.
I'm just talking about rolling it into the state pension. That way we save on administration costs and you get it spread out over 12 months.
Advantage is that your wife doesn't see a nice cheque for £200 arrive and start thinking about the sales
Politically rolling the benefit into the pension is probably the only way such benefits could be abolished but I would prefer it were possible to give them only to those that need them.
I'd roll them in and then make the state pension taxable, so people with a good income will pay back a percentage - thus reducing the deadweight cost. Means testing would be a bureaucratic nightmare.
Given that only 25 seats are priced for the SNP at 1/2 or shorter, there still seems to be value here if (like me) you believe there is a better than two in three chance that the SNP will get more than 25 seats. The Labour seats where the SNP are priced between 1/2 and 2/1 continue to look worthy of close scrutiny.
There are, however, only three Scottish seats where the SNP are priced at longer than 2/1: East Renfrewshire, Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk and Orkney & Shetland.
There are now a huge number of bookies in the Scottish seat markets.
On the evidence of Ashcroft Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale being the same price as Glasgow North East is a bit bonkers. Glasgow North East is next to Renfrewshire East as my "last to go down on the SLab ship" seats even if the SNP storm the rest of the country. DCT is a straight knife edge battle between Con and SNP were every vote counts.
DCT is value in my book and Glasgow NE is a leave alone at that price.
3.5 units DCT Tories @ 4-5; 2.5 units DCT @ 2-1 SNP is the bet I reckon.
Odds look right to me.
Or wrong
I've just gone mad and put a fiver on SNP to take Orkney & Shetlands.
Great stuff. I still think it's a loser but boy will be fun to see.
What are the thoughts on Charles Kennedy surviving? He clearly faces the challenge of the SNP Tsunami, but he wasn't in Govt and is an independent minded MP.
But has he been a Westminster Cheerleader in Scotland and has his personal problems hit his personal vote?
I am tempted to bet that he will survive but I am not sure if my heart is ruling my head as I fear for him personally if he was defeated.
IG's binary spread bet on Charlie Kennedy retaining his seat is 45-53, in other words in conventional odds terms that's 0.89/1 that he wins and 0.82/1 that he loses. Just three months ago this seat was generally considered impregnable by the SNP..... not so now.
48 hours after the Budget or should we call it "The Spring Statement" and I've forgotten most of it already.
There are perhaps times to leave well alone and while the increase in personal allowances is to be welcome, the rhetoric and petty points-scoring from Osborne and Miliband and unfortunately from Danny Alexander as well yesterday all leaves me cold.
Cheap jibes may be the stuff of political theatre and predictable partisan coverage in the printed media the price of a free Press but there was some objective analysis to be found if you were prepared to look for it.
The Coalition's performance on the economy is for me mixed at best - plenty of good things but a number of targets (especially relating to the deficit and borrowing) not reached and I'm to be convinced a) how much of the rise in employment can be attributed to Government policy and b) this is wholly positive for the future. I'm unsure as to the extent to which the Coalition has engineered a sustainable and meaningful economic recovery and how much of it is down to the stimulus of QE and artificial monetary policy.
I doubt Labour would have done any better - I also suspect it wouldn't have been all that different. I know that personally I am worse off than in 2010 and at my time of life I literally cannot afford five years of stagnation but that's what has happened and while I cannot deny the overall state of the economy is better than it was, I have yet personally to feel enough benefit to recoup the ground lost from 2008.
"... I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits."
We were talking about this issue at the last meeting of the Hurstpierpoint & District Gentlemen's Temperance Association. Our Chairman (a retired senior BA Captain) pointed out that losing our bus passes would be the equivalent of having to forgo, or at least find the money for, the third brandy at our monthly Brighton luncheon. The Treasurer (just back from spending the winter in the Far East, as usual) pointed out that the two-hundred quid winter fuel allowance only just about covered the cost of taking his wife out for their anniversary dinner and really it needed to be increased. The meeting agreed that without the universal pensioner benefits none there would ever vote Conservative ever again.
I'm just talking about rolling it into the state pension. That way we save on administration costs and you get it spread out over 12 months.
Advantage is that your wife doesn't see a nice cheque for £200 arrive and start thinking about the sales
£200 comes at a time you need it - so why roll it over? How much of the bus pass would you 'roll over' ? Perhaps you ought to factor in the benefit to the economy (and people's health) of encouraging pensioners to actually get out of their homes and go to places where they will be living rather than vegetating and at the same time spending taxable money. Taking into account the rail card (which you do pay for) the bus pass encourages the people who have time to travel off peak and live a life and spend their savings.
Havent they gone for enough of our rights without attacking our right to sit at home on election day as well?!
Actually, I'm not averse to making voting compulsory - so long as there's a RON option.
Vote RON!
Talk about the worst of both worlds - making people vote in the first place and then justifying it by saying that they are allowed to vote to be forced to vote a second time!
Cant the few freedoms we have left be left alone?
Quite right. RON is an appalling option to be on a ballot paper, encouraging lazy cynicism by allowing people to feel smug about voting against everyone without contributing anything. If people don't want to vote, that should be their right. If they really don't like the options on offer that much, then they should get involved and do something about it.
The chancellor has enjoyed decisive luck, but it is political not economic. He has been given monstrously incompetent adversaries. Had the Labour party owned up to its profligacy in office during the previous decade, it would now have the moral licence to mock his failed deficit target.
Instead, Labour will not even concede that it was wrong to run a structural deficit in the years leading up to the crash, by which time Britain was a decade and a half into an economic expansion. A party that is still borrowing in those circumstances will never see a reason not to borrow.
"To what extent do you agree or disagree that government should redistribute income from the better off to those who are less well off?"
I agree strongly that there should be taxes and a welfare system, so can't disagree with it which means I have to start off "left of centre".
Who on the right doesn't agree strongly that we should have taxes? Are there really people out there who think no redistribution of income should take place at all?
Agree, it is bollocks. They might as well have asked about your views on punching kittens....
"... I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits."
We were talking about this issue at the last meeting of the Hurstpierpoint & District Gentlemen's Temperance Association. Our Chairman (a retired senior BA Captain) pointed out that losing our bus passes would be the equivalent of having to forgo, or at least find the money for, the third brandy at our monthly Brighton luncheon. The Treasurer (just back from spending the winter in the Far East, as usual) pointed out that the two-hundred quid winter fuel allowance only just about covered the cost of taking his wife out for their anniversary dinner and really it needed to be increased. The meeting agreed that without the universal pensioner benefits none there would ever vote Conservative ever again.
I'm just talking about rolling it into the state pension. That way we save on administration costs and you get it spread out over 12 months.
Advantage is that your wife doesn't see a nice cheque for £200 arrive and start thinking about the sales
£200 comes at a time you need it - so why roll it over? How much of the bus pass would you 'roll over' ? Perhaps you ought to factor in the benefit to the economy (and people's health) of encouraging pensioners to actually get out of their homes and go to places where they will be living rather than vegetating and at the same time spending taxable money. Taking into account the rail card (which you do pay for) the bus pass encourages the people who have time to travel off peak and live a life and spend their savings.
"... I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits."
We were talking about this issue at the last meeting of the Hurstpierpoint & District Gentlemen's Temperance Association. Our Chairman (a retired senior BA Captain) pointed out that losing our bus passes would be the equivalent of having to forgo, or at least find the money for, the third brandy at our monthly Brighton luncheon. The Treasurer (just back from spending the winter in the Far East, as usual) pointed out that the two-hundred quid winter fuel allowance only just about covered the cost of taking his wife out for their anniversary dinner and really it needed to be increased. The meeting agreed that without the universal pensioner benefits none there would ever vote Conservative ever again.
I'm just talking about rolling it into the state pension. That way we save on administration costs and you get it spread out over 12 months.
Advantage is that your wife doesn't see a nice cheque for £200 arrive and start thinking about the sales
Politically rolling the benefit into the pension is probably the only way such benefits could be abolished but I would prefer it were possible to give them only to those that need them.
I'd roll them in and then make the state pension taxable, so people with a good income will pay back a percentage - thus reducing the deadweight cost. Means testing would be a bureaucratic nightmare.
you'd nearly think the government should reform the tax and benefit system
What are the thoughts on Charles Kennedy surviving? He clearly faces the challenge of the SNP Tsunami, but he wasn't in Govt and is an independent minded MP.
But has he been a Westminster Cheerleader in Scotland and has his personal problems hit his personal vote?
I am tempted to bet that he will survive but I am not sure if my heart is ruling my head as I fear for him personally if he was defeated.
IG's binary spread bet on Charlie Kennedy retaining his seat is 45-53, in other words in conventional odds terms that's 0.89/1 that he wins and 0.82/1 that he loses. Just three months ago this seat was generally considered impregnable by the SNP..... not so now.
IG was one of the exchanges I was looking at as I have an account with them
so far I have bought the Lib Dems at 26 and sold UKIP at 8.8
I am also looking very closely at the Farage price
"... I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits."
We were talking about this issue at the last meeting of the Hurstpierpoint & District Gentlemen's Temperance Association. Our Chairman (a retired senior BA Captain) pointed out that losing our bus passes would be the equivalent of having to forgo, or at least find the money for, the third brandy at our monthly Brighton luncheon. The Treasurer (just back from spending the winter in the Far East, as usual) pointed out that the two-hundred quid winter fuel allowance only just about covered the cost of taking his wife out for their anniversary dinner and really it needed to be increased. The meeting agreed that without the universal pensioner benefits none there would ever vote Conservative ever again.
I'm just talking about rolling it into the state pension. That way we save on administration costs and you get it spread out over 12 months.
Advantage is that your wife doesn't see a nice cheque for £200 arrive and start thinking about the sales
£200 comes at a time you need it - so why roll it over? How much of the bus pass would you 'roll over' ? Perhaps you ought to factor in the benefit to the economy (and people's health) of encouraging pensioners to actually get out of their homes and go to places where they will be living rather than vegetating and at the same time spending taxable money. Taking into account the rail card (which you do pay for) the bus pass encourages the people who have time to travel off peak and live a life and spend their savings.
It shouldn't be the state's job to subsidise people's social lives. However, as the voters seem to disagree, the nonsense will continue irrespective of who's in power, at least for those groups who can be bothered to vote.
Now that Sir Malcolm is stepping down (and I have still not forgiven him) I will be considering the offering of Mr Farage.
What have you not forgiven him for - stepping down or the loose talk that resulted in him stepping down?
Mr Neil, I am distraught at Sir Malcolm's clear lack of judgement in speaking so inopportunely to the undercover reporter. I have always viewed him as a man of utmost integrity and he has shaken me to the quick.
Mr Farage however has shown the utmost probity.
Ever since nuala became Nuala her taste in dodgy, middle-aged, white politicians has gone downhill!
Her heart still Byrnes for Jack W.
How were we fooled by that unsavoury contratemps....
IG's binary spread bet on Charlie Kennedy retaining his seat is 45-53, in other words in conventional odds terms that's 0.89/1 that he wins and 0.82/1 that he loses. Just three months ago this seat was generally considered impregnable by the SNP..... not so now.
Peter, where can I find IG's politics markets? Their website doesn't seem to mention them
@MarqueeMark "The Clarkson petition finally reaches 1 million"
It took them a while to work out which box to tick, or it would have reached that in a day.
Smarmie your claim about the contents of your deep freeze was the dimmest fail in internet history. So don't be a smartarse, at least until you have changed your name.
48 hours after the Budget or should we call it "The Spring Statement" and I've forgotten most of it already.
There are perhaps times to leave well alone and while the increase in personal allowances is to be welcome, the rhetoric and petty points-scoring from Osborne and Miliband and unfortunately from Danny Alexander as well yesterday all leaves me cold.
Cheap jibes may be the stuff of political theatre and predictable partisan coverage in the printed media the price of a free Press but there was some objective analysis to be found if you were prepared to look for it.
The Coalition's performance on the economy is for me mixed at best - plenty of good things but a number of targets (especially relating to the deficit and borrowing) not reached and I'm to be convinced a) how much of the rise in employment can be attributed to Government policy and b) this is wholly positive for the future. I'm unsure as to the extent to which the Coalition has engineered a sustainable and meaningful economic recovery and how much of it is down to the stimulus of QE and artificial monetary policy.
I doubt Labour would have done any better - I also suspect it wouldn't have been all that different. I know that personally I am worse off than in 2010 and at my time of life I literally cannot afford five years of stagnation but that's what has happened and while I cannot deny the overall state of the economy is better than it was, I have yet personally to feel enough benefit to recoup the ground lost from 2008.
Labour would have done disastrously worse had they won. You'd have had Gordon Brown and Ed Balls running the economy. Both were in favour of borrowing as much as possible and spending as much as possible. Both opposed the deficit reduction the Tories proposed in opposition and delivered in government. It is far from inconceivable that Britain may well have experienced a complete lockout from the lending markets and with an economy the size of the UK's, the IMF may not have had the resources to bail us out (with the onerous terms that would have involved). Potentially, you could have seen a complete financial and economic (and, consequently, political) collapse in the country had Labour won in 2010.
It wouldn't be so bad were they to win in 2015 as the economy locally and globally is more secure but I doubt there's any change to the golden rule that Labour governments always run out of money and always end up with unemployment higher than when they came in.
You should change your profile picture to that of Ms Cole's tattoo.
The gag is that Ms F-V is anything but a pop strumpet. Her husband's very high profile cheating clearly affected her very deeply, and still does.
Like Congressman Weiner and Brooks Newmark, he was another one who liked sending photos of his private parts to all and sundry, a fetish which I find inexplicable.
Why do they think women will be interested in seeing a middle aged man's private parts? Or, come to think of it, at any age?
There is (I'm told) a website called Rate My ****, which is dedicated to the female equivalent.
I'm not googling that at work.
What could go wrong? :-)
As an amusing aside one of my colleagues was once researching an airline and when he clicked on(what he thought was) the google link ended up in a p o rn site.
I was not in and so the next day he insisted on rerunning the search for my benefit so I could see it was an innocent accessing of a prohibited site.
His face was a picture when I told him that was great, but how do I explain to I.T. / HR that you made the same mistake twice :-)
I am sure we all found that funnier than he did :-)
The chancellor has enjoyed decisive luck, but it is political not economic. He has been given monstrously incompetent adversaries. Had the Labour party owned up to its profligacy in office during the previous decade, it would now have the moral licence to mock his failed deficit target.
Instead, Labour will not even concede that it was wrong to run a structural deficit in the years leading up to the crash, by which time Britain was a decade and a half into an economic expansion. A party that is still borrowing in those circumstances will never see a reason not to borrow.
To be fair, nearly everyone signed up to Labour's spending orthodoxy in the early noughties - Howard Flight was unceremoniously dumped when suggesting big cuts were possible.
Most people believed or wanted to believe that the days of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and rising asset values would last forever.
Indeed, the problems really only started when the income collapsed - while that was coming in at a sufficient level to get near to the expenditure, no one cared much about the deficit. When the tax receipts stopped coming in, the expenditure hole was opened up.
'A Ukip spokesman said: “We are treating Mr Stanley’s comments with the incredulity they deserve.'
Getting to grips with the problems he is highlighting would probably be a better response. Looking at their MEP's comments it can be hard to doubt his claim that there are serious problems in the party's organisation in Scotland. Particularly given what happened last year and their treatment of the good Viscount.
There must surely be an error on the scale? The sun outputs 1,300 W/m2. Even if only 1% of that is in the visible where PV cells operate, the implies only a couple hundred square meters of PV cells in all of Germany.Later comment on twitter points out that is the output from one chap's PV system. The total for Germany as a whole is here: http://www.sma.de/en/company/pv-electricity-produced-in-germany.html Peaked at just over 20GW today. Fell 8.2GW from peak to trough over the course of an hour in the morning due to the eclipse.
"... I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits."
We were talking about this issue at the last meeting of the Hurstpierpoint & District Gentlemen's Temperance Association. Our Chairman (a retired senior BA Captain) pointed out that losing our bus passes would be the equivalent of having to forgo, or at least find the money for, the third brandy at our monthly Brighton luncheon. The Treasurer (just back from spending the winter in the Far East, as usual) pointed out that the two-hundred quid winter fuel allowance only just about covered the cost of taking his wife out for their anniversary dinner and really it needed to be increased. The meeting agreed that without the universal pensioner benefits none there would ever vote Conservative ever again.
I'm just talking about rolling it into the state pension. That way we save on administration costs and you get it spread out over 12 months.
Advantage is that your wife doesn't see a nice cheque for £200 arrive and start thinking about the sales
£200 comes at a time you need it - so why roll it over? How much of the bus pass would you 'roll over' ? Perhaps you ought to factor in the benefit to the economy (and people's health) of encouraging pensioners to actually get out of their homes and go to places where they will be living rather than vegetating and at the same time spending taxable money. Taking into account the rail card (which you do pay for) the bus pass encourages the people who have time to travel off peak and live a life and spend their savings.
Because it costs a fortune in administration, has a huge deadweight cost and was basically a bribe by Gordon Brown that has limited intrinsic merit
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
... which is manned to ensure the doors open and shut safely (although it might be possible for that function to be performed from the platform, rather than the train, it still means that strikes would close down the system).
The amount of safety-related legislation on the railways is amazing; even greater than for airlines.
Yebbut most of the time (not all, but most) you can sit in the front seat and "pretend" to be the driver!
"... I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits."
We were talking about this issue at the last meeting of the Hurstpierpoint & District Gentlemen's Temperance Association. Our Chairman (a retired senior BA Captain) pointed out that losing our bus passes would be the equivalent of having to forgo, or at least find the money for, the third brandy at our monthly Brighton luncheon. The Treasurer (just back from spending the winter in the Far East, as usual) pointed out that the two-hundred quid winter fuel allowance only just about covered the cost of taking his wife out for their anniversary dinner and really it needed to be increased. The meeting agreed that without the universal pensioner benefits none there would ever vote Conservative ever again.
I'm just talking about rolling it into the state pension. That way we save on administration costs and you get it spread out over 12 months.
Advantage is that your wife doesn't see a nice cheque for £200 arrive and start thinking about the sales
Politically rolling the benefit into the pension is probably the only way such benefits could be abolished but I would prefer it were possible to give them only to those that need them.
I'd roll them in and then make the state pension taxable, so people with a good income will pay back a percentage - thus reducing the deadweight cost. Means testing would be a bureaucratic nightmare.
you'd nearly think the government should reform the tax and benefit system
I'm totally up for that. It's why I'd be a crap politician - I'd give away all their powers, and grab the third rail with gusto
There must surely be an error on the scale? The sun outputs 1,300 W/m2. Even if only 1% of that is in the visible where PV cells operate, the implies only a couple hundred square meters of PV cells in all of Germany.
Later comment on twitter points out that is the output from one chap's PV system. The total for Germany as a whole is here: http://www.sma.de/en/company/pv-electricity-produced-in-germany.html Peaked at just over 20GW today. Fell 8.2GW from peak to trough over the course of an hour in the morning due to the eclipse.
Thanks for the link, that's pretty awesome! I'm all for Solar, and they are building a couple of big solar farms near where my parents live, shouldn't spoil the view from my old room that much!
You should change your profile picture to that of Ms Cole's tattoo.
The gag is that Ms F-V is anything but a pop strumpet. Her husband's very high profile cheating clearly affected her very deeply, and still does.
Like Congressman Weiner and Brooks Newmark, he was another one who liked sending photos of his private parts to all and sundry, a fetish which I find inexplicable.
Why do they think women will be interested in seeing a middle aged man's private parts? Or, come to think of it, at any age?
There is (I'm told) a website called Rate My ****, which is dedicated to the female equivalent.
I'm not googling that at work.
What could go wrong? :-)
As an amusing aside one of my colleagues was once researching an airline and when he clicked on(what he thought was) the google link ended up in a p o rn site.
I was not in and so the next day he insisted on rerunning the search for my benefit so I could see it was an innocent accessing of a prohibited site.
His face was a picture when I told him that was great, but how do I explain to I.T. / HR that you made the same mistake twice :-)
I am sure we all found that funnier than he did :-)
Delete interest history is a useful tool. The harder bit is backfitting it with several normal sites so it doesn't look like you've cleansed it.
Labour would have done disastrously worse had they won. You'd have had Gordon Brown and Ed Balls running the economy. Both were in favour of borrowing as much as possible and spending as much as possible. Both opposed the deficit reduction the Tories proposed in opposition and delivered in government. It is far from inconceivable that Britain may well have experienced a complete lockout from the lending markets and with an economy the size of the UK's, the IMF may not have had the resources to bail us out (with the onerous terms that would have involved). Potentially, you could have seen a complete financial and economic (and, consequently, political) collapse in the country had Labour won in 2010.
It wouldn't be so bad were they to win in 2015 as the economy locally and globally is more secure but I doubt there's any change to the golden rule that Labour governments always run out of money and always end up with unemployment higher than when they came in.
By the way, good to see you on alternatehistory.com and an excellent TL on Taft.
I disagree because as I recall Alastair Darling signed Labour up to a programme of cuts as severe as those proposed by Osborne. I'd prefer to think that Darling (or Balls) would have, in the teeth of opposition, gone through with the initial stages of the plan.
The political backlash would have been severe and I do wonder if there would have been a midterm crisis leading to Brown's departure in favour of David Miliband. It's possible that a Labour Government under strong political pressure would have retreated from the cuts so perhaps leaving borrowing at around £90-£100 billion a year (so a huge difference from OTL).
Politically, the Conservatives under Cameron's successor would be in a very strong position and would be framing 2015 as 1979 redux.
At least one part of the Grauniad is playing a straight bat:
Yet another jury has cleared more Sun journalists who were charged with offences related to the paying of public officials.
It is further confirmation that the police and the Crown Prosecution Service should not have brought such charges against people who were engaged in a practice that, for many years, was considered to be entirely normal journalistic activity at papers across Fleet Street.
UKIP on 13.6% so far this week in ELBOW. They haven't been below 14% since August
Keep Picker ?
Every day is peak Kipper.
Good odds on Labour over at Bet365 for Thanet South. We will know whether they are with a chance if they release their private constituency polling. Assuming it was Labour who funded it. If we do not hear anything then Labour are not coming second.
RepublicanTory appears to be a little selective. At the moment UKIP has 1 shop in Ramsgate which seems fairly busy, the new Tory shop in Broadstairs seems to be rarely open and Laura Sandys office in Ramsgate as far as I know never opened to the public. Labour has a long standing established office in Newington the biggest council estate area. Labour has a new shop on the harbour in a fantastic location with massive footfall, shoppers by day, restaurant eaters in evening and clubbers into the night. It also has a long established office in Cliftonville in the North of the constituency. Labour has a fully branded minibus. UKIP brings a double decker bus regularly. Nobody I know has even seen a Tory car sticker. Literature from Tory & UKIP is direct mail coming from outside the constituency not delivered on the ground as far as I and my friends know. Labour and UKIP deliver leaflets with volunteers. UKIP do seem to be active it is their top priority after all, but the Tories are in a mess. They have been unable to announce a full slate of candidates for the Council elections, and I have been told there constituency membership is now less than 100. Many leading Tories have left and gone to UKIP with several defectors on Thanet Council. I went to one hustings and the Conservative candidate did not have anybody to support him whereas UKIP and Labour did. I'm told at other hustings the same pattern has been the case. In Ramsgate Town Centre (half the votes are in Ramsgate so it is the key battleground) UKIP, Labour and Stand Up to UKIP have regular stalls - as was seen on the BBC Meet the UKIPPERS programme. Farage partly chose Thanet South because the Conservative Party is rotten and hollowed out. The former Conservative Leader of the Council went to jail for property corruption. A recent Conservative Mayor was convicted of animal cruelty. Others with drink problems have regularly featured in the local news. Even by local politics standards they have been an odd and eclectic lot.
Sitting MP Sandys campaigned hard for 2 years with lots of money and resources but is significantly going round the country in her new role as President of the European Movement. She is giving as little support to the Conservative candidate as she possibly can. This seat is UKIP or Labour.
At least one part of the Grauniad is playing a straight bat:
Yet another jury has cleared more Sun journalists who were charged with offences related to the paying of public officials.
It is further confirmation that the police and the Crown Prosecution Service should not have brought such charges against people who were engaged in a practice that, for many years, was considered to be entirely normal journalistic activity at papers across Fleet Street.
"... I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits."
We were talking about this issue at the last meeting of the Hurstpierpoint & District Gentlemen's Temperance Association. Our Chairman (a retired senior BA Captain) pointed out that losing our bus passes would be the equivalent of having to forgo, or at least find the money for, the third brandy at our monthly Brighton luncheon. The Treasurer (just back from spending the winter in the Far East, as usual) pointed out that the two-hundred quid winter fuel allowance only just about covered the cost of taking his wife out for their anniversary dinner and really it needed to be increased. The meeting agreed that without the universal pensioner benefits none there would ever vote Conservative ever again.
I'm just talking about rolling it into the state pension. That way we save on administration costs and you get it spread out over 12 months.
Advantage is that your wife doesn't see a nice cheque for £200 arrive and start thinking about the sales
Politically rolling the benefit into the pension is probably the only way such benefits could be abolished but I would prefer it were possible to give them only to those that need them.
I'd roll them in and then make the state pension taxable, so people with a good income will pay back a percentage - thus reducing the deadweight cost. Means testing would be a bureaucratic nightmare.
you'd nearly think the government should reform the tax and benefit system
The State pension IS taxable. It counts as earned income just like private pension income. My mother (86) has a tax code to reflect the effects of her pensions and Aviva pay HMRC the tax owed.
Labour would have done disastrously worse had they won. You'd have had Gordon Brown and Ed Balls running the economy. Both were in favour of borrowing as much as possible and spending as much as possible. Both opposed the deficit reduction the Tories proposed in opposition and delivered in government. It is far from inconceivable that Britain may well have experienced a complete lockout from the lending markets and with an economy the size of the UK's, the IMF may not have had the resources to bail us out (with the onerous terms that would have involved). Potentially, you could have seen a complete financial and economic (and, consequently, political) collapse in the country had Labour won in 2010.
It wouldn't be so bad were they to win in 2015 as the economy locally and globally is more secure but I doubt there's any change to the golden rule that Labour governments always run out of money and always end up with unemployment higher than when they came in.
By the way, good to see you on alternatehistory.com and an excellent TL on Taft.
I disagree because as I recall Alastair Darling signed Labour up to a programme of cuts as severe as those proposed by Osborne. I'd prefer to think that Darling (or Balls) would have, in the teeth of opposition, gone through with the initial stages of the plan.
The political backlash would have been severe and I do wonder if there would have been a midterm crisis leading to Brown's departure in favour of David Miliband. It's possible that a Labour Government under strong political pressure would have retreated from the cuts so perhaps leaving borrowing at around £90-£100 billion a year (so a huge difference from OTL).
Politically, the Conservatives under Cameron's successor would be in a very strong position and would be framing 2015 as 1979 redux.
Thanks for the comments, particularly re the alternatehistory thread I'm writing (about two-thirds of the way through at the moment, by the way).
I agree that Darling signed up to the cuts in principle, however (1) Darling fully expected to be replaced after the election if Labour won, and (2) Labour never spelled out where the cuts would fall, even in generalities, and opposed every Tory measure.
In reality, I think Brown would have replaced Darling with Balls and the two would have junked the cuts and quite possibly would have turned on the taps even faster - if not immediately then certainly in 2011 when the Eurozone stumbled again, leaving borrowing pushing £200bn pa. At which point the markets would have taken fright, not so much at the numbers per se but at the direction of travel. Then there really would have been a crisis.
Millions still use easy-to-crack passwords such as ‘qwerty’ and ‘123456’, but many people are choosing to use more complex sets of characters for our online accounts.
However, a new study has found these seemingly random passwords may be more obvious to hack than you realise.
Researchers have shown that passwords such as ‘mnbvcxz’, ‘qaz2wsx’ and ‘adgjmptw’ can be cracked in seconds - and adding numbers to your codes does little to boost its strength
Millions still use easy-to-crack passwords such as ‘qwerty’ and ‘123456’, but many people are choosing to use more complex sets of characters for our online accounts.
However, a new study has found these seemingly random passwords may be more obvious to hack than you realise.
Researchers have shown that passwords such as ‘mnbvcxz’, ‘qaz2wsx’ and ‘adgjmptw’ can be cracked in seconds - and adding numbers to your codes does little to boost its strength
A misleading description. ‘mnbvcxz’, ‘qaz2wsx’ and ‘adgjmptw’ are not random series, they are keyboard walks. Emphasis on the "seemingly" before "random"...
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes · 8m8 minutes ago Osborne tells LBC he wants to keep current role if Tories win: [After election] "I think I will be presenting a Budget as Chancellor"
If he's being honest, that goes against what had previously been understood.
Millions still use easy-to-crack passwords such as ‘qwerty’ and ‘123456’, but many people are choosing to use more complex sets of characters for our online accounts.
However, a new study has found these seemingly random passwords may be more obvious to hack than you realise.
Researchers have shown that passwords such as ‘mnbvcxz’, ‘qaz2wsx’ and ‘adgjmptw’ can be cracked in seconds - and adding numbers to your codes does little to boost its strength
"One visitor to Bath, pensioner Graham Davies, says he was once attacked by a gull that was after his pasty. “I was somewhat angry,” he said, “although it wasn’t a very good pasty.” "
Thanks for the comments, particularly re the alternatehistory thread I'm writing (about two-thirds of the way through at the moment, by the way).
I agree that Darling signed up to the cuts in principle, however (1) Darling fully expected to be replaced after the election if Labour won, and (2) Labour never spelled out where the cuts would fall, even in generalities, and opposed every Tory measure.
In reality, I think Brown would have replaced Darling with Balls and the two would have junked the cuts and quite possibly would have turned on the taps even faster - if not immediately then certainly in 2011 when the Eurozone stumbled again, leaving borrowing pushing £200bn pa. At which point the markets would have taken fright, not so much at the numbers per se but at the direction of travel. Then there really would have been a crisis.
I've no argument with your analysis if that's what had happened. Had Balls publicly ditched the cuts in the summer of 2010 or early 2011, the market reaction would have triggered a significant crisis.
Had Darling remained and tried to implement cuts (possibly in tandem with tax rises to try and get some income back into the coffers), what then ? Would we have seen a concerted reaction from the Unions or would they have been supportive of a "soak the rich" campaign ?
I'm certain, as happened to Osborne in fact, there would have been a political price for the economic pain and the mid term for Labour would have been dire. Yet would we have seen the rise of UKIP - frankly, no. I suspect the Conservatives would have developed huge poll leads and would be salivating at the thought of the General Election.
2015 wouldn't be 1979 but 1997 in reverse with massive Labour losses to both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats (and the SNP and Plaid as well). We might have seen Labour reduced to 150 seats in the face of the anti-Labour landslide.
You could try writing a TL on it but Labour would have to do much better in 2010 than in OTL.
At least one part of the Grauniad is playing a straight bat:
Yet another jury has cleared more Sun journalists who were charged with offences related to the paying of public officials.
It is further confirmation that the police and the Crown Prosecution Service should not have brought such charges against people who were engaged in a practice that, for many years, was considered to be entirely normal journalistic activity at papers across Fleet Street.
Thanks for the comments, particularly re the alternatehistory thread I'm writing (about two-thirds of the way through at the moment, by the way).
I agree that Darling signed up to the cuts in principle, however (1) Darling fully expected to be replaced after the election if Labour won, and (2) Labour never spelled out where the cuts would fall, even in generalities, and opposed every Tory measure.
In reality, I think Brown would have replaced Darling with Balls and the two would have junked the cuts and quite possibly would have turned on the taps even faster - if not immediately then certainly in 2011 when the Eurozone stumbled again, leaving borrowing pushing £200bn pa. At which point the markets would have taken fright, not so much at the numbers per se but at the direction of travel. Then there really would have been a crisis.
I've no argument with your analysis if that's what had happened. Had Balls publicly ditched the cuts in the summer of 2010 or early 2011, the market reaction would have triggered a significant crisis.
Had Darling remained and tried to implement cuts (possibly in tandem with tax rises to try and get some income back into the coffers), what then ? Would we have seen a concerted reaction from the Unions or would they have been supportive of a "soak the rich" campaign ?
I'm certain, as happened to Osborne in fact, there would have been a political price for the economic pain and the mid term for Labour would have been dire. Yet would we have seen the rise of UKIP - frankly, no. I suspect the Conservatives would have developed huge poll leads and would be salivating at the thought of the General Election.
2015 wouldn't be 1979 but 1997 in reverse with massive Labour losses to both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats (and the SNP and Plaid as well). We might have seen Labour reduced to 150 seats in the face of the anti-Labour landslide.
You could try writing a TL on it but Labour would have to do much better in 2010 than in OTL.
I'd agree with pretty much all that, however I still doubt the original premise of Darling staying given that Brown had only been prevented from removing him before the election due to his political weakness. In the immediate aftermath of an election victory - and a victory he'd won against the odds and from 20+ point Tory leads in 2008/9 - I just can't see why he wouldn't have moved his preferred man into No 11 at that point.
Millions still use easy-to-crack passwords such as ‘qwerty’ and ‘123456’, but many people are choosing to use more complex sets of characters for our online accounts.
However, a new study has found these seemingly random passwords may be more obvious to hack than you realise.
Researchers have shown that passwords such as ‘mnbvcxz’, ‘qaz2wsx’ and ‘adgjmptw’ can be cracked in seconds - and adding numbers to your codes does little to boost its strength
Labour would have done disastrously worse had they won. You'd have had Gordon Brown and Ed Balls running the economy. Both were in favour of borrowing as much as possible and spending as much as possible. Both opposed the deficit reduction the Tories proposed in opposition and delivered in government. It is far from inconceivable that Britain may well have experienced a complete lockout from the lending markets and with an economy the size of the UK's, the IMF may not have had the resources to bail us out (with the onerous terms that would have involved). Potentially, you could have seen a complete financial and economic (and, consequently, political) collapse in the country had Labour won in 2010.
It wouldn't be so bad were they to win in 2015 as the economy locally and globally is more secure but I doubt there's any change to the golden rule that Labour governments always run out of money and always end up with unemployment higher than when they came in.
By the way, good to see you on alternatehistory.com and an excellent TL on Taft.
I disagree because as I recall Alastair Darling signed Labour up to a programme of cuts as severe as those proposed by Osborne. I'd prefer to think that Darling (or Balls) would have, in the teeth of opposition, gone through with the initial stages of the plan.
Thanks for the comments, particularly re the alternatehistory thread I'm writing (about two-thirds of the way through at the moment, by the way).
I agree that Darling signed up to the cuts in principle, however (1) Darling fully expected to be replaced after the election if Labour won, and (2) Labour never spelled out where the cuts would fall, even in generalities, and opposed every Tory measure.
In reality, I think Brown would have replaced Darling with Balls and the two would have junked the cuts and quite possibly would have turned on the taps even faster - if not immediately then certainly in 2011 when the Eurozone stumbled again, leaving borrowing pushing £200bn pa. At which point the markets would have taken fright, not so much at the numbers per se but at the direction of travel. Then there really would have been a crisis.
I think Labour would have been happy to cut justice, defence and police. Probably a bit from business, DCMS, and DEFRA. They also would have probably squeezed middle class pensioner entitlements. They wouldn't have made the commitment on international aid.
They would have raised VAT too, NI, froze the higher rate band and not cut basic income tax or raised the threshold notably.
But I agree spending would not have drastically reduced. They'd probably have aimed to stabilise the deficit in the £120-140bn range.
"Strategists believe that the Tories need to win 310 seats – four more than last time – to have a chance of running a minority government. This is 16 seats short of the 326 seats to secure an overall parliamentary majority.
One strategist said: “If we have a similar number of MPs to now – under 310 – then it is difficult to run a minority government. If you are on 320 you can do it. The amber region is 310-320. It would be a challenge to run a minority government in that area. But it would be possible.”
The strategists also believe the party needs to ensure that the number of Tory MPs outnumbers the combined total of Labour and Lib Dem MPs."
That looks a little pessimistic from a Conservative viewpoint, but at this stage they won't want to be considering stretching to the limit.
At least one part of the Grauniad is playing a straight bat:
Yet another jury has cleared more Sun journalists who were charged with offences related to the paying of public officials.
It is further confirmation that the police and the Crown Prosecution Service should not have brought such charges against people who were engaged in a practice that, for many years, was considered to be entirely normal journalistic activity at papers across Fleet Street.
It's amazing now that the left is implicated phone hacking has become a minor offence.
Quite
And how now the left is implicated PB Tories say it's not just the storm in a teacup they previously said
But that's part of the point: left-leaning newspapers have always been implicated in this from the very start, yet the focus was just on one (right-wing) paper group.
But that's part of the point: left-leaning newspapers have always been implicated in this from the very start, yet the focus was just on one (right-wing) paper group.
And, curiously (pure coincidence of course) that focus started only after said newspaper group switched support from Labour to the Conservatives.
"Strategists believe that the Tories need to win 310 seats – four more than last time – to have a chance of running a minority government. This is 16 seats short of the 326 seats to secure an overall parliamentary majority.
One strategist said: “If we have a similar number of MPs to now – under 310 – then it is difficult to run a minority government. If you are on 320 you can do it. The amber region is 310-320. It would be a challenge to run a minority government in that area. But it would be possible.”
The strategists also believe the party needs to ensure that the number of Tory MPs outnumbers the combined total of Labour and Lib Dem MPs."
That looks a little pessimistic from a Conservative viewpoint, but at this stage they won't want to be considering stretching to the limit.
The role of the Lib Dem rump is fascinating. Does Con 285 seats, Labour 275, Lib Dem 25 see all three leaders out as a sort of reverse Goldilocks zone ?
Comments
http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=8f42af8d26b382b0bcc4930b2&id=dd238fc6a0&e=ae7f92d13c
http://www.metadyne.co.uk/pdf_files/mr_sep12_p62_65_driverless trains.pdf
http://www.londonreconnections.com/2014/new-tube-london-driverless-train-driver/
(*) Or not.
Vote for us or we take a bat to your leg...
He's braver than I am!!
Cant the few freedoms we have left be left alone?
You scored 12 out of 25
A score of 5 is the furthest left and 25 is the furthest right. Around a fifth of the population have similar views to you. Your answers place you close to the centre of political opinion in most years.
Although a certain Mrs T Blair stood here in 1983!
Dover / Deal to the South:-Charlie Elphicke is well regarded and believes the best way to reform Brussels is to tow it 250 miles and sink in the middle of the North Sea. I doubt very much UKIP will cause him any great problems.
The amount of safety-related legislation on the railways is amazing; even greater than for airlines.
Bloody hell-I never thought the metropolis of Hacklinge would ever get a mention unless Farage was caught at the near-by D*gging site
If the good citizens of Hacklinge (all 12 of them!!) decide the outcome of Thanet S Farage may well have smoked himself to death during the numerous recounts
Twas only a matter of time.
"... I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits."
We were talking about this issue at the last meeting of the Hurstpierpoint & District Gentlemen's Temperance Association. Our Chairman (a retired senior BA Captain) pointed out that losing our bus passes would be the equivalent of having to forgo, or at least find the money for, the third brandy at our monthly Brighton luncheon. The Treasurer (just back from spending the winter in the Far East, as usual) pointed out that the two-hundred quid winter fuel allowance only just about covered the cost of taking his wife out for their anniversary dinner and really it needed to be increased. The meeting agreed that without the universal pensioner benefits none there would ever vote Conservative ever again.
He clearly faces the challenge of the SNP Tsunami, but he wasn't in Govt and is an independent minded MP.
But has he been a Westminster Cheerleader in Scotland and has his personal problems hit his personal vote?
I am tempted to bet that he will survive but I am not sure if my heart is ruling my head as I fear for him personally if he was defeated.
Advantage is that your wife doesn't see a nice cheque for £200 arrive and start thinking about the sales
"To what extent do you agree or disagree that government should redistribute income from the better off to those who are less well off?"
I agree strongly that there should be taxes and a welfare system, so can't disagree with it which means I have to start off "left of centre".
Who on the right doesn't agree strongly that we should have taxes? Are there really people out there who think no redistribution of income should take place at all?
8-11 is probably a fair reflection of his chances if slightly skinny.
6-5 SNP; 5-6 Lib Dem ?
5-4 SNP is probably a slightly better bet. I make it very marginal at the prices though.
A score of 5 is the furthest left and 25 is the furthest right. Around a fifth of the population have similar views to you. You would have been close to the centre of the political spectrum from 2004-2007 and in 2010.
For model train Buffs everywhere
http://www.buffersmodelrailways.com/products/figures/adult
In Scotland, Con got 17% in 2010 and are about the same now - so no switching there.
Lab got 43% in 2010 and are about 27% now. This implies that about 37% of former Lab voters have gone over to SNP.
This effect alone cuts the Labour seats down to 4.
The LibDems have gone from 18% to about 4%,. This implies that about 78% have switched to the SNP. There will be a differential between LibDem seats/marginals and non-marginals. If I assume 100% of LibDems in non-marginals switch to SNP, it still means that 30% of LibDems in LibDem seats/marginals also switch to the SNP. It is the only way to reconcile the numbers.
Putting those assumptions in the model gives the SNP every seat except Orkney and Ross (and Ross is a LibDem majority of only 100).
I have DCT as an SNP majority of 500 (1%) over Con, and Glasgow NE as an SNP majority of 1000 (2%) over Lab.
The UK picture then becomes
Con 261 seats
Lab 281 seats
LD 28 seats
SNP 56 seats
UKIP 2 seats
Grn 1 seat
If those Scottish polls are anything like correct I can't see any alternative to an SNP landslide.
Ho hum...
I was being silly, hence the smiley.
Poll is frustrating though.
48 hours after the Budget or should we call it "The Spring Statement" and I've forgotten most of it already.
There are perhaps times to leave well alone and while the increase in personal allowances is to be welcome, the rhetoric and petty points-scoring from Osborne and Miliband and unfortunately from Danny Alexander as well yesterday all leaves me cold.
Cheap jibes may be the stuff of political theatre and predictable partisan coverage in the printed media the price of a free Press but there was some objective analysis to be found if you were prepared to look for it.
The Coalition's performance on the economy is for me mixed at best - plenty of good things but a number of targets (especially relating to the deficit and borrowing) not reached and I'm to be convinced a) how much of the rise in employment can be attributed to Government policy and b) this is wholly positive for the future. I'm unsure as to the extent to which the Coalition has engineered a sustainable and meaningful economic recovery and how much of it is down to the stimulus of QE and artificial monetary policy.
I doubt Labour would have done any better - I also suspect it wouldn't have been all that different. I know that personally I am worse off than in 2010 and at my time of life I literally cannot afford five years of stagnation but that's what has happened and while I cannot deny the overall state of the economy is better than it was, I have yet personally to feel enough benefit to recoup the ground lost from 2008.
How much of the bus pass would you 'roll over' ?
Perhaps you ought to factor in the benefit to the economy (and people's health) of encouraging pensioners to actually get out of their homes and go to places where they will be living rather than vegetating and at the same time spending taxable money. Taking into account the rail card (which you do pay for) the bus pass encourages the people who have time to travel off peak and live a life and spend their savings.
"The Clarkson petition finally reaches 1 million"
It took them a while to work out which box to tick, or it would have reached that in a day.
so far I have bought the Lib Dems at 26 and sold UKIP at 8.8
I am also looking very closely at the Farage price
How were we fooled by that unsavoury contratemps....
It wouldn't be so bad were they to win in 2015 as the economy locally and globally is more secure but I doubt there's any change to the golden rule that Labour governments always run out of money and always end up with unemployment higher than when they came in.
As an amusing aside one of my colleagues was once researching an airline and when he clicked on(what he thought was) the google link ended up in a p o rn site.
I was not in and so the next day he insisted on rerunning the search for my benefit so I could see it was an innocent accessing of a prohibited site.
His face was a picture when I told him that was great, but how do I explain to I.T. / HR that you made the same mistake twice :-)
I am sure we all found that funnier than he did :-)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3001497/Secret-s-Sam-Cam-s-larder-21-jar-healing-honey-30-bottle-cooking-plonk-exotic-spices.html?ito=social-facebook
To be fair, nearly everyone signed up to Labour's spending orthodoxy in the early noughties - Howard Flight was unceremoniously dumped when suggesting big cuts were possible.
Most people believed or wanted to believe that the days of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and rising asset values would last forever.
Indeed, the problems really only started when the income collapsed - while that was coming in at a sufficient level to get near to the expenditure, no one cared much about the deficit. When the tax receipts stopped coming in, the expenditure hole was opened up.
Yes dear.
Getting to grips with the problems he is highlighting would probably be a better response. Looking at their MEP's comments it can be hard to doubt his claim that there are serious problems in the party's organisation in Scotland. Particularly given what happened last year and their treatment of the good Viscount.
http://www.sma.de/en/company/pv-electricity-produced-in-germany.html
Peaked at just over 20GW today. Fell 8.2GW from peak to trough over the course of an hour in the morning due to the eclipse.
http://www.sma.de/en/company/pv-electricity-produced-in-germany.html
Peaked at just over 20GW today. Fell 8.2GW from peak to trough over the course of an hour in the morning due to the eclipse.
Thanks for the link, that's pretty awesome! I'm all for Solar, and they are building a couple of big solar farms near where my parents live, shouldn't spoil the view from my old room that much!
I disagree because as I recall Alastair Darling signed Labour up to a programme of cuts as severe as those proposed by Osborne. I'd prefer to think that Darling (or Balls) would have, in the teeth of opposition, gone through with the initial stages of the plan.
The political backlash would have been severe and I do wonder if there would have been a midterm crisis leading to Brown's departure in favour of David Miliband. It's possible that a Labour Government under strong political pressure would have retreated from the cuts so perhaps leaving borrowing at around £90-£100 billion a year (so a huge difference from OTL).
Politically, the Conservatives under Cameron's successor would be in a very strong position and would be framing 2015 as 1979 redux.
Good odds on Labour over at Bet365 for Thanet South. We will know whether they are with a chance if they release their private constituency polling. Assuming it was Labour who funded it. If we do not hear anything then Labour are not coming second.
Labour has a fully branded minibus. UKIP brings a double decker bus regularly. Nobody I know has even seen a Tory car sticker.
Literature from Tory & UKIP is direct mail coming from outside the constituency not delivered on the ground as far as I and my friends know. Labour and UKIP deliver leaflets with volunteers. UKIP do seem to be active it is their top priority after all, but the Tories are in a mess. They have been unable to announce a full slate of candidates for the Council elections, and I have been told there constituency membership is now less than 100.
Many leading Tories have left and gone to UKIP with several defectors on Thanet Council. I went to one hustings and the Conservative candidate did not have anybody to support him whereas UKIP and Labour did. I'm told at other hustings the same pattern has been the case. In Ramsgate Town Centre (half the votes are in Ramsgate so it is the key battleground) UKIP, Labour and Stand Up to UKIP have regular stalls - as was seen on the BBC Meet the UKIPPERS programme.
Farage partly chose Thanet South because the Conservative Party is rotten and hollowed out. The former Conservative Leader of the Council went to jail for property corruption. A recent Conservative Mayor was convicted of animal cruelty. Others with drink problems have regularly featured in the local news. Even by local politics standards they have been an odd and eclectic lot.
Sitting MP Sandys campaigned hard for 2 years with lots of money and resources but is significantly going round the country in her new role as President of the European Movement. She is giving as little support to the Conservative candidate as she possibly can.
This seat is UKIP or Labour.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2015/mar/04/mirror-group-phone-hacking-is-not-getting-headlines-it-deserves
http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/24/trinity-mirror-sundaymirror
I agree that Darling signed up to the cuts in principle, however (1) Darling fully expected to be replaced after the election if Labour won, and (2) Labour never spelled out where the cuts would fall, even in generalities, and opposed every Tory measure.
In reality, I think Brown would have replaced Darling with Balls and the two would have junked the cuts and quite possibly would have turned on the taps even faster - if not immediately then certainly in 2011 when the Eurozone stumbled again, leaving borrowing pushing £200bn pa. At which point the markets would have taken fright, not so much at the numbers per se but at the direction of travel. Then there really would have been a crisis.
Osborne tells LBC he wants to keep current role if Tories win: [After election] "I think I will be presenting a Budget as Chancellor"
If he's being honest, that goes against what had previously been understood.
What bothers me is those passwords should never have been leaked in the first place.
Any decent system never stores the password - so it cannot leak even if the software is hacked.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f0e6e1c2-cf14-11e4-b761-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3Uwu6MuZi
"One visitor to Bath, pensioner Graham Davies, says he was once attacked by a gull that was after his pasty. “I was somewhat angry,” he said, “although it wasn’t a very good pasty.” "
Had Darling remained and tried to implement cuts (possibly in tandem with tax rises to try and get some income back into the coffers), what then ? Would we have seen a concerted reaction from the Unions or would they have been supportive of a "soak the rich" campaign ?
I'm certain, as happened to Osborne in fact, there would have been a political price for the economic pain and the mid term for Labour would have been dire. Yet would we have seen the rise of UKIP - frankly, no. I suspect the Conservatives would have developed huge poll leads and would be salivating at the thought of the General Election.
2015 wouldn't be 1979 but 1997 in reverse with massive Labour losses to both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats (and the SNP and Plaid as well). We might have seen Labour reduced to 150 seats in the face of the anti-Labour landslide.
You could try writing a TL on it but Labour would have to do much better in 2010 than in OTL.
What bothers me is those passwords should never have been leaked in the first place.
Any decent system never stores the password - so it cannot leak even if the software is hacked.
The key factor in any password security is not caps/numbers/punctuation but LENGTH. Any password of 20 or more letters is pretty well uncrackable.
"Ukip faces crisis after two parliamentary candidates suspended and one resigns"
That sounds like a below average day for UKIP
They would have raised VAT too, NI, froze the higher rate band and not cut basic income tax or raised the threshold notably.
But I agree spending would not have drastically reduced. They'd probably have aimed to stabilise the deficit in the £120-140bn range.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/20/camerons-praetorian-guard-plan-to-save-him-from-post-election-unseating
"Strategists believe that the Tories need to win 310 seats – four more than last time – to have a chance of running a minority government. This is 16 seats short of the 326 seats to secure an overall parliamentary majority.
One strategist said: “If we have a similar number of MPs to now – under 310 – then it is difficult to run a minority government. If you are on 320 you can do it. The amber region is 310-320. It would be a challenge to run a minority government in that area. But it would be possible.”
The strategists also believe the party needs to ensure that the number of Tory MPs outnumbers the combined total of Labour and Lib Dem MPs."
That looks a little pessimistic from a Conservative viewpoint, but at this stage they won't want to be considering stretching to the limit.
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-rows-see-fareham-parliamentary-candidate-suspended-and-then-quit-1-6543949
No need for the heating on though!
Time for a Guardian article about under-representation of certain groups of people in the media...