1) Labour has NOT ruled out a deal with the SNP. It has ruled out a coalition.
We seem to be facing the hilarious prospect of Labour begging the SNP not to support them!
It's important to understand that there doesn't need to be a deal to support a minority government, there only needs to be the absence of a majority to vote it down. In practice, in a hung parliament where Lab+SNP is over 325, I would expect the SNP to cause as much havoc as possible without actually voting against Labour in a confidence motion, at least for a while.
That's exactly what I expect. Labour should also be lining up support from the Lib Dems in such circumstances, who are likely to prove more reliable allies, even if they are not coalition partners.
In the next Parliament we can divide the parties into three groups: those that have a vested interest in at least a moderately stable government, those who do not care and those that actively want instability.
Wanting stability
Conservatives Lib Dems Labour
Indifferent
Greens DUP (and other northern Irish parties) Plaid Cymru Respect
Wanting instability
SNP UKIP
(This is not to set LibLabCon up as paragons - it's simply that their pitch to the public is as responsible parties of government, and being seen to cause instability would be damaging to their electoral prospects. The other parties are seeking votes on different bases.)
Parties in the third category have no motivation to enter into formal coalitions. Parties in the second category could in theory be incentivised to enter into a formal coalition, but it's not obvious why anyone would offer them one.
So if there is to be a coalition, it will involve the parties in the first category.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
Have two candidates and that is what happens, unless there are more than two options on a strike ballot?
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
Have two candidates and that is what happens, unless there are more than two options on a strike ballot?
No. Many winning candidates would fail to get 40% support from the electorate in even a two horse race.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
Have two candidates and that is what happens, unless there are more than two options on a strike ballot?
No. Many winning candidates would fail to get 40% support from the electorate in even a two horse race.
Oh, the absolute requirement. I see. Well, make voting compulsory!
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
That sounds like an excellent idea. Forcing politicians to engage with the disengaged and to form coalitions with a broad base is exactly what we should be doing.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
Liam Kirkaldy @HolyroodLiam @rafaelbehr Everyone in Scotland is just standing around, taking it in turns to call each other Tories. Except the Tories.
They should run a poster in Scotland saying 'don't go for the cheap imitation, if you want the real deal - the best - you can only trust the original blue Tories.'
Was Cheryl Cole , pop strumpet and X-factor judge.
She should sell her house, pocket a huge profit [ tax free ] and buy a castle. If she has to live in London, then let out the castle and live in a rented property.
I'm not sure about the mansion tax. Firstly the name is a bit of a misnomer since the size and price of property are no longer that well correlated. I'd rather see extra councl tax bands and a land value tax of some kind.
Well quite. It will not be levied on lots of houses that are mansions but it will be levied on lots of houses that are not mansions.
A square footage tax would be fairer. £1 a year up to 2,000 feet, £3 2001 to 5000, £5 5001 to 10,000, etc. and with a discount for occupancy levels.
This would enable the overall level to be lower because childless couples overhoused in huge cheap property oop north would pay more than families squashed into tiny expensive houses daan sarf. It would also warn Labour voters that it is entirely possible for the state to come after their houses too.
Now that Sir Malcolm is stepping down (and I have still not forgiven him) I will be considering the offering of Mr Farage.
What have you not forgiven him for - stepping down or the loose talk that resulted in him stepping down?
Mr Neil, I am distraught at Sir Malcolm's clear lack of judgement in speaking so inopportunely to the undercover reporter. I have always viewed him as a man of utmost integrity and he has shaken me to the quick.
You should change your profile picture to that of Ms Cole's tattoo.
The gag is that Ms F-V is anything but a pop strumpet. Her husband's very high profile cheating clearly affected her very deeply, and still does.
Like Congressman Weiner and Brooks Newmark, he was another one who liked sending photos of his private parts to all and sundry, a fetish which I find inexplicable.
Given that only 25 seats are priced for the SNP at 1/2 or shorter, there still seems to be value here if (like me) you believe there is a better than two in three chance that the SNP will get more than 25 seats. The Labour seats where the SNP are priced between 1/2 and 2/1 continue to look worthy of close scrutiny.
There are, however, only three Scottish seats where the SNP are priced at longer than 2/1: East Renfrewshire, Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk and Orkney & Shetland.
There are now a huge number of bookies in the Scottish seat markets.
On the evidence of Ashcroft Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale being the same price as Glasgow North East is a bit bonkers. Glasgow North East is next to Renfrewshire East as my "last to go down on the SLab ship" seats even if the SNP storm the rest of the country. DCT is a straight knife edge battle between Con and SNP were every vote counts.
DCT is value in my book and Glasgow NE is a leave alone at that price.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
That sounds like an excellent idea. Forcing politicians to engage with the disengaged and to form coalitions with a broad base is exactly what we should be doing.
In post-Soviet Eastern Europe, I recall some countries experimenting with a rule that elections were only valid if a certain proportion of voters turned out - otherwise they had to rerun them. After a few times when this happened, without improving turnout, I think they may have given it up. Perhaps antifrank knows?
A square footage tax would be fairer. £1 a year up to 2,000 feet, £3 2001 to 5000, £5 5001 to 10,000, etc. and with a discount for occupancy levels.
This would enable the overall level to be lower because childless couples overhoused in huge cheap property oop north would pay more than families squashed into tiny expensive houses daan sarf. It would also warn Labour voters that it is entirely possible for the state to come after their houses too.
Does that mean I would be able to negotiate cheaper rent given I have a large family and it would reduce the landlord's tax (or would renters pay)?
At least one part of the Grauniad is playing a straight bat:
Yet another jury has cleared more Sun journalists who were charged with offences related to the paying of public officials.
It is further confirmation that the police and the Crown Prosecution Service should not have brought such charges against people who were engaged in a practice that, for many years, was considered to be entirely normal journalistic activity at papers across Fleet Street.
You should change your profile picture to that of Ms Cole's tattoo.
The gag is that Ms F-V is anything but a pop strumpet. Her husband's very high profile cheating clearly affected her very deeply, and still does.
Like Congressman Weiner and Brooks Newmark, he was another one who liked sending photos of his private parts to all and sundry, a fetish which I find inexplicable.
Why do they think women will be interested in seeing a middle aged man's private parts? Or, come to think of it, at any age?
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
That sounds like an excellent idea. Forcing politicians to engage with the disengaged and to form coalitions with a broad base is exactly what we should be doing.
In post-Soviet Eastern Europe, I recall some countries experimenting with a rule that elections were only valid if a certain proportion of voters turned out - otherwise they had to rerun them. After a few times when this happened, without improving turnout, I think they may have given it up. Perhaps antifrank knows?
I haven't heard that before.
If true, the problem with that is that the politicians determined the success or failure of the experiment.
In the business world, if a product fails to sell, the fault is found in the producer or the product rather than the recalcitrant public. Only in politics is it concluded that the fault is with the public if they don't invest in the politicians.
I met up with 2 friends last night -we all live in the Constituency and we unanimously agreed that Labour were running a very low campaign which made no sense bearing in mind their recent past in the seat. (Labour seat 97-2010)
(We all vote for different parties so this was no Tory echo chamber)
If Labour are seriously coming up on the rails then there is absolutely no sign of it as far as any of us could see. The Conservatives and UKIP are out constantly -In the last 4 weeks I have been leafleted as follows UKIP *2 Tory *2 All others 0
As I said the other day, I am sure Labour will get a solid vote, For Farage to win he needs the Labour vote to fall and that I think he is slightly ahead as of now.
Which is all the more reason why I find it hard to believe that UKIP would a) talk up Labour prospects -as PtP says below, Tory voters are less inclined to vote tactically and b) from everything that I and many others see on the ground Labour just simply do not look or campaign like a Party who have even a sniff of a chance.
I will be happy to update as the election progresses !!
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
That sounds like an excellent idea. Forcing politicians to engage with the disengaged and to form coalitions with a broad base is exactly what we should be doing.
In post-Soviet Eastern Europe, I recall some countries experimenting with a rule that elections were only valid if a certain proportion of voters turned out - otherwise they had to rerun them. After a few times when this happened, without improving turnout, I think they may have given it up. Perhaps antifrank knows?
I haven't heard that before.
If true, the problem with that is that the politicians determined the success or failure of the experiment.
In the business world, if a product fails to sell, the fault is found in the producer or the product rather than the recalcitrant public. Only in politics is it concluded that the fault is with the public if they don't invest in the politicians.
The EU is a great example of this. Didn't like that referendum result? Let's repeat it.
Given that only 25 seats are priced for the SNP at 1/2 or shorter, there still seems to be value here if (like me) you believe there is a better than two in three chance that the SNP will get more than 25 seats. The Labour seats where the SNP are priced between 1/2 and 2/1 continue to look worthy of close scrutiny.
There are, however, only three Scottish seats where the SNP are priced at longer than 2/1: East Renfrewshire, Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk and Orkney & Shetland.
There are now a huge number of bookies in the Scottish seat markets.
On the evidence of Ashcroft Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale being the same price as Glasgow North East is a bit bonkers. Glasgow North East is next to Renfrewshire East as my "last to go down on the SLab ship" seats even if the SNP storm the rest of the country. DCT is a straight knife edge battle between Con and SNP were every vote counts.
DCT is value in my book and Glasgow NE is a leave alone at that price.
3.5 units DCT Tories @ 4-5; 2.5 units DCT @ 2-1 SNP is the bet I reckon.
You should change your profile picture to that of Ms Cole's tattoo.
The gag is that Ms F-V is anything but a pop strumpet. Her husband's very high profile cheating clearly affected her very deeply, and still does.
Like Congressman Weiner and Brooks Newmark, he was another one who liked sending photos of his private parts to all and sundry, a fetish which I find inexplicable.
Why do they think women will be interested in seeing a middle aged man's private parts? Or, come to think of it, at any age?
There is (I'm told) a website called Rate My ****, which is dedicated to the female equivalent.
@antifrank I think there was a degree of suspicion due to the majority of them having been recruited by the same person, and their subs paid for by the same credit card. Unfounded and malicious speculation by the party obviously....?
10/1 is perhaps a bit long for Labour but looking at the breakdown of the Survation poll it seems UKIP have been eating into the Labour vote in Cliftonville and it's the Tory vote in Sandwich that will prove more difficult to win round. I wouldn't say Labour are finished in Kent but in this seat they're not going to poll above 35% and thus for them to win you'd need the mother of all 3 way marginals. Had Sandys stayed on Nigel would be finding life much tougher. I agree that by shaping the campaign as a straight UKIP vs Labour battle it will help the former, the reality is that it will probably be UKIP vs Tory.
Given that only 25 seats are priced for the SNP at 1/2 or shorter, there still seems to be value here if (like me) you believe there is a better than two in three chance that the SNP will get more than 25 seats. The Labour seats where the SNP are priced between 1/2 and 2/1 continue to look worthy of close scrutiny.
There are, however, only three Scottish seats where the SNP are priced at longer than 2/1: East Renfrewshire, Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk and Orkney & Shetland.
There are now a huge number of bookies in the Scottish seat markets.
On the evidence of Ashcroft Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale being the same price as Glasgow North East is a bit bonkers. Glasgow North East is next to Renfrewshire East as my "last to go down on the SLab ship" seats even if the SNP storm the rest of the country. DCT is a straight knife edge battle between Con and SNP were every vote counts.
DCT is value in my book and Glasgow NE is a leave alone at that price.
3.5 units DCT Tories @ 4-5; 2.5 units DCT @ 2-1 SNP is the bet I reckon.
Odds look right to me.
Or wrong
I've just gone mad and put a fiver on SNP to take Orkney & Shetlands.
10/1 is perhaps a bit long for Labour but looking at the breakdown of the Survation poll it seems UKIP have been eating into the Labour vote in Cliftonville and it's the Tory vote in Sandwich that will prove more difficult to win round. I wouldn't say Labour are finished in Kent but in this seat they're not going to poll above 35% and thus for them to win you'd need the mother of all 3 way marginals. Had Sandys stayed on Nigel would be finding life much tougher. I agree that by shaping the campaign as a straight UKIP vs Labour battle it will help the former, the reality is that it will probably be UKIP vs Tory.
Don't think the winner will need 35%. 30% could be enough if the Greens get 4%, Lib Dems 4% or so and other assorted odds and ends (Murray) 2%.
Now that Sir Malcolm is stepping down (and I have still not forgiven him) I will be considering the offering of Mr Farage.
What have you not forgiven him for - stepping down or the loose talk that resulted in him stepping down?
Mr Neil, I am distraught at Sir Malcolm's clear lack of judgement in speaking so inopportunely to the undercover reporter. I have always viewed him as a man of utmost integrity and he has shaken me to the quick.
Mr Farage however has shown the utmost probity.
It is with a deep sense of regret that I notice that the fragrant Ms Nuala has allowed the perfidious activities of the media to wrench Sir Malcie from her enviable bosom and transfer her voluptuous affections to the vulgar arriviste leader of Ukip.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
10/1 is perhaps a bit long for Labour but looking at the breakdown of the Survation poll it seems UKIP have been eating into the Labour vote in Cliftonville and it's the Tory vote in Sandwich that will prove more difficult to win round. I wouldn't say Labour are finished in Kent but in this seat they're not going to poll above 35% and thus for them to win you'd need the mother of all 3 way marginals. Had Sandys stayed on Nigel would be finding life much tougher. I agree that by shaping the campaign as a straight UKIP vs Labour battle it will help the former, the reality is that it will probably be UKIP vs Tory.
Don't think the winner will need 35%. 30% could be enough if the Greens get 4%, Lib Dems 4% or so and other assorted odds and ends (Murray) 2%.
Suppose so! The Lib Dems wont be getting 4% thats for sure! If the election was today Farage has this in the bag, same with Aker in Thurrock, and while I expect the UKIP vote nationally to get squeezed it will be interested to see if it holds up in the marginals.
There must surely be an error on the scale? The sun outputs 1,300 W/m2. Even if only 1% of that is in the visible where PV cells operate, the implies only a couple hundred square meters of PV cells in all of Germany.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
10/1 is perhaps a bit long for Labour but looking at the breakdown of the Survation poll it seems UKIP have been eating into the Labour vote in Cliftonville and it's the Tory vote in Sandwich that will prove more difficult to win round. I wouldn't say Labour are finished in Kent but in this seat they're not going to poll above 35% and thus for them to win you'd need the mother of all 3 way marginals. Had Sandys stayed on Nigel would be finding life much tougher. I agree that by shaping the campaign as a straight UKIP vs Labour battle it will help the former, the reality is that it will probably be UKIP vs Tory.
Don't think the winner will need 35%. 30% could be enough if the Greens get 4%, Lib Dems 4% or so and other assorted odds and ends (Murray) 2%.
Suppose so! The Lib Dems wont be getting 4% thats for sure! If the election was today Farage has this in the bag, same with Aker in Thurrock, and while I expect the UKIP vote nationally to get squeezed it will be interested to see if it holds up in the marginals.
UKIP on 13.6% so far this week in ELBOW. They haven't been below 14% since August.
At least one part of the Grauniad is playing a straight bat:
Yet another jury has cleared more Sun journalists who were charged with offences related to the paying of public officials.
It is further confirmation that the police and the Crown Prosecution Service should not have brought such charges against people who were engaged in a practice that, for many years, was considered to be entirely normal journalistic activity at papers across Fleet Street.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
Like on the Docklands Light Rail!
Did you read that piece on the BBC about the death of the 125s. Makes me very sad just thinking about it.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
Like on the Docklands Light Rail!
Did you read that piece on the BBC about the death of the 125s. Makes me very sad just thinking about it.
Yes, those trains are forty years old next year I believe. The prototype driving cars had originally been intended to be just another class of locomotive!
10/1 is perhaps a bit long for Labour but looking at the breakdown of the Survation poll it seems UKIP have been eating into the Labour vote in Cliftonville and it's the Tory vote in Sandwich that will prove more difficult to win round. I wouldn't say Labour are finished in Kent but in this seat they're not going to poll above 35% and thus for them to win you'd need the mother of all 3 way marginals. Had Sandys stayed on Nigel would be finding life much tougher. I agree that by shaping the campaign as a straight UKIP vs Labour battle it will help the former, the reality is that it will probably be UKIP vs Tory.
BROM-I agree the Tory supporters in and around Sandwich is a key battle ground in a UKIP/Tory fight. I suspect how they turnout will be key to either side winning.
I campaigned quite a lot last time in the Newington area-whilst it might be Labour at local Elections it has very strong BNP / UKIP leanings. This area and others like it -such as Cliftonville-are the Labour areas that UKIP need to turnout to win the seat.
Laura is a genuinely nice person BUT she was very pro Europe and a lot of local Tories knew that-Labour knew that and so did Farge which is why I am sure he had been eyeing up Thanet S for so long. Mackinlay's UKIP past was a key reason he got the nomination.
Looking forward to the number of PB Tory duffers managing to sound simultaneously immensely arrogant and pathetically cowardly as a Tory government looks increasingly unlikely, as they say they are 'arranging their affairs' in case of Ed. Maybe we could make it a drinking game.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
Like on the Docklands Light Rail!
Did you read that piece on the BBC about the death of the 125s. Makes me very sad just thinking about it.
The 125s killed off the Westerns and Deltics. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
There must surely be an error on the scale? The sun outputs 1,300 W/m2. Even if only 1% of that is in the visible where PV cells operate, the implies only a couple hundred square meters of PV cells in all of Germany.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
Like on the Docklands Light Rail!
Did you read that piece on the BBC about the death of the 125s. Makes me very sad just thinking about it.
The 125s killed off the Westerns and Deltics. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
You just know the next model is going to be even crapper!
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
Like on the Docklands Light Rail!
Did you read that piece on the BBC about the death of the 125s. Makes me very sad just thinking about it.
The 125s killed off the Westerns and Deltics. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
You just know the next model is going to be even crapper!
O/T I've just done a webinar on Money Laundering, for the Conveyancing Quality Scheme.
Amusingly, I was warned to be especially cautious when taking instructions from politicians and their families (British and foreign) and to consider requiring them to provide enhanced disclosure. Politicians and their families are considered more likely than the population as a whole to be recycling the proceeds of crime through property purchases.
"Parties in the third category have no motivation to enter into formal coalitions. Parties in the second category could in theory be incentivised to enter into a formal coalition, but it's not obvious why anyone would offer them one."
Agree, SNP/UKIP/Greens gain hugely from being seen as insurgent, anti-establishment parties, can't think why anyone would bet on them entering government, what is the upside for them to do so. So that leaves the LDs, naturally more inclined to coalition, but if the polls are halfway right they will be so stunned post-election that they won't know where to go.
So Con or Lab minority looks best bet, I put most of my chips on Lab minority a few weeks back, as they seem to have more options in a hung parliament. Hedged with Con min and Con maj, just in case middle England can't bring itself to back Ed and the Tories win the 310+ seats I think they need to get back into Downing St.
10/1 is perhaps a bit long for Labour but looking at the breakdown of the Survation poll it seems UKIP have been eating into the Labour vote in Cliftonville and it's the Tory vote in Sandwich that will prove more difficult to win round. I wouldn't say Labour are finished in Kent but in this seat they're not going to poll above 35% and thus for them to win you'd need the mother of all 3 way marginals. Had Sandys stayed on Nigel would be finding life much tougher. I agree that by shaping the campaign as a straight UKIP vs Labour battle it will help the former, the reality is that it will probably be UKIP vs Tory.
BROM-I agree the Tory supporters in and around Sandwich is a key battle ground in a UKIP/Tory fight. I suspect how they turnout will be key to either side winning.
I campaigned quite a lot last time in the Newington area-whilst it might be Labour at local Elections it has very strong BNP / UKIP leanings. This area and others like it -such as Cliftonville-are the Labour areas that UKIP need to turnout to win the seat.
Laura is a genuinely nice person BUT she was very pro Europe and a lot of local Tories knew that-Labour knew that and so did Farge which is why I am sure he had been eyeing up Thanet S for so long. Mackinlay's UKIP past was a key reason he got the nomination.
Interesting views. My family loosely know Laura and say she is a lovely person, though given your comments perhaps she is more suited to a 'leafier' Conservative seat. I suppose Mackinlay's UKIP past may even out the incumbency factor that the Tories lost through Sandys standing down. I've no doubt this will be a close run thing and nothing will be taken for granted until election night itself. I do however think despite some views on this site that Farage did pick the correct seat and would not have been better off fighting in areas where he would be more of an outsider candidate such as Boston or Great Yarmouth.
I'd be interested to know what the feeling on the ground is in North Thanet and whether UKIP's support spreads into the next constituency which demographically I see as being something of a mirror image.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
Like on the Docklands Light Rail!
Did you read that piece on the BBC about the death of the 125s. Makes me very sad just thinking about it.
The 125s killed off the Westerns and Deltics. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
You just know the next model is going to be even crapper!
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
Like on the Docklands Light Rail!
Did you read that piece on the BBC about the death of the 125s. Makes me very sad just thinking about it.
The 125s killed off the Westerns and Deltics. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
You just know the next model is going to be even crapper!
Westerns were rubbish.
Diesel hydraulics were never as reliable as diesel electrics
10/1 is perhaps a bit long for Labour but looking at the breakdown of the Survation poll it seems UKIP have been eating into the Labour vote in Cliftonville and it's the Tory vote in Sandwich that will prove more difficult to win round. I wouldn't say Labour are finished in Kent but in this seat they're not going to poll above 35% and thus for them to win you'd need the mother of all 3 way marginals. Had Sandys stayed on Nigel would be finding life much tougher. I agree that by shaping the campaign as a straight UKIP vs Labour battle it will help the former, the reality is that it will probably be UKIP vs Tory.
BROM-I agree the Tory supporters in and around Sandwich is a key battle ground in a UKIP/Tory fight. I suspect how they turnout will be key to either side winning.
I campaigned quite a lot last time in the Newington area-whilst it might be Labour at local Elections it has very strong BNP / UKIP leanings. This area and others like it -such as Cliftonville-are the Labour areas that UKIP need to turnout to win the seat.
Laura is a genuinely nice person BUT she was very pro Europe and a lot of local Tories knew that-Labour knew that and so did Farge which is why I am sure he had been eyeing up Thanet S for so long. Mackinlay's UKIP past was a key reason he got the nomination.
Which way will Hacklinge go (The T South part obviously) have 3 ducks living on a farm there that I used to own (Long story)
That nice Mr Shapps has just sent me a message (graphical, just in case I don't read proper)
* There are less than 50 days to go until the most important election in a generation...
* We are on the road to recovery but there's still more to do
* Together we can deliver:
- A Britain that lives within its means (reducing the deficit so we can keep investing in vital public services) - A job for everyone who wants one (backing businesses to keep creating jobs and opportunities) - A Britain that rewards work (cutting income tax so people keep more of their hard earned money) - The best start in life for every child (delivery a good primary school place for every child) - A home of your own (keeping mortgage rates low and extending our help to buy scheme) - Security in retirement (increasing the state pension and protecting pensioner benefits)
* Don't let Labour wreck the progress we have made as a country
* Let's stick with the plan and secure a better future for you, your family and for Britain
A nicely positive message, with some specific promises. A couple of slightly uncomfortable dog whistles there & I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits.
I see Unite are threatening a toy and pram moment.
It's the Tories that are threatening workers' rights.
This is the requirement to have a 40% vote in order to have a strike?
The proposed requirement is for 40% support for strike action in certain areas. Imagine if we required 40% support before we allowed a political party to govern...
40% of the electorate would equate to a 61.5% vote share on a 65% turnout. I think the current government fell *just* short.
How about a compromise? Strikes can only take place if they achieve the same level of support as the governing party/parties in terms of share of the electorate? That'd stop crazy situations where strikes go ahead with 10% of members saying yes.
How about another compromise.
Driverless Tube Trains.
Yep, nothing wrong with automation. And it would free up staff to be on the train itself (i.e. a conductor) or on the platforms.
Like on the Docklands Light Rail!
Did you read that piece on the BBC about the death of the 125s. Makes me very sad just thinking about it.
The 125s killed off the Westerns and Deltics. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
Point of order: the Westerns started to be withdrawn well before the HST reached squadron service, and withdrawal was completed well before all the HSTs were completed. In fact, they were withdrawn because:
a) they did not have electric train heating, and b) they were a load of non-standard nonsense by copper-topped Swindon idiots who felt the knew best, but didn't.
You are on firmer ground with the magnificent Deltics, but even those thoroughbreds were maintenance nightmares and could only top 100MPH.
The HST 125s are a superlative piece of industrial design and the pinnacle of locomotive design in this country.
(And I'm not just saying that because they were designed in Derby). :-)
1) Labour has NOT ruled out a deal with the SNP. It has ruled out a coalition.
We seem to be facing the hilarious prospect of Labour begging the SNP not to support them!
It's important to understand that there doesn't need to be a deal to support a minority government, there only needs to be the absence of a majority to vote it down. In practice, in a hung parliament where Lab+SNP is over 325, I would expect the SNP to cause as much havoc as possible without actually voting against Labour in a confidence motion, at least for a while.
If for the sake of argument there were 40 SNP MPs then the true majority for English matters would be about 305.
You should change your profile picture to that of Ms Cole's tattoo.
The gag is that Ms F-V is anything but a pop strumpet. Her husband's very high profile cheating clearly affected her very deeply, and still does.
Like Congressman Weiner and Brooks Newmark, he was another one who liked sending photos of his private parts to all and sundry, a fetish which I find inexplicable.
Why do they think women will be interested in seeing a middle aged man's private parts? Or, come to think of it, at any age?
There is (I'm told) a website called Rate My ****, which is dedicated to the female equivalent.
Comments
In the next Parliament we can divide the parties into three groups: those that have a vested interest in at least a moderately stable government, those who do not care and those that actively want instability.
Wanting stability
Conservatives
Lib Dems
Labour
Indifferent
Greens
DUP (and other northern Irish parties)
Plaid Cymru
Respect
Wanting instability
SNP
UKIP
(This is not to set LibLabCon up as paragons - it's simply that their pitch to the public is as responsible parties of government, and being seen to cause instability would be damaging to their electoral prospects. The other parties are seeking votes on different bases.)
Parties in the third category have no motivation to enter into formal coalitions. Parties in the second category could in theory be incentivised to enter into a formal coalition, but it's not obvious why anyone would offer them one.
So if there is to be a coalition, it will involve the parties in the first category.
Liam Kirkaldy @HolyroodLiam
@rafaelbehr Everyone in Scotland is just standing around, taking it in turns to call each other Tories. Except the Tories.
I enjoyed watching Ruth Davidson on Question Time when she was on
You can clearly see from the movie Braveheart the Scots lacked a proper political insult before the birth of the tory party.
Those blokes arguing over the rightful claim to the throne desperately needed a term of abuse for each other.
http://www.libdems.org.uk/create-ukip-expense-claim
A square footage tax would be fairer. £1 a year up to 2,000 feet, £3 2001 to 5000, £5 5001 to 10,000, etc. and with a discount for occupancy levels.
This would enable the overall level to be lower because childless couples overhoused in huge cheap property oop north would pay more than families squashed into tiny expensive houses daan sarf. It would also warn Labour voters that it is entirely possible for the state to come after their houses too.
Mr Farage however has shown the utmost probity.
DCT is value in my book and Glasgow NE is a leave alone at that price.
Vote RON!
Yet another jury has cleared more Sun journalists who were charged with offences related to the paying of public officials.
It is further confirmation that the police and the Crown Prosecution Service should not have brought such charges against people who were engaged in a practice that, for many years, was considered to be entirely normal journalistic activity at papers across Fleet Street.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2015/mar/20/jury-were-right-to-clear-sun-quartet-they-shouldnt-have-been-on-trial
If so, I'll have a nibble
A great shame. There should be exceptions to rules in cases such as this.
"It's your choice. Except whether or not you vote, of course. Then the state compels you." It's not really freedom if you're compelled to do it.
I dislike the choice to not bother, but it is a valid choice.
If true, the problem with that is that the politicians determined the success or failure of the experiment.
In the business world, if a product fails to sell, the fault is found in the producer or the product rather than the recalcitrant public. Only in politics is it concluded that the fault is with the public if they don't invest in the politicians.
I met up with 2 friends last night -we all live in the Constituency and we unanimously agreed that Labour were running a very low campaign which made no sense bearing in mind their recent past in the seat. (Labour seat 97-2010)
(We all vote for different parties so this was no Tory echo chamber)
If Labour are seriously coming up on the rails then there is absolutely no sign of it as far as any of us could see. The Conservatives and UKIP are out constantly -In the last 4 weeks I have been leafleted as follows
UKIP *2
Tory *2
All others 0
As I said the other day, I am sure Labour will get a solid vote, For Farage to win he needs the Labour vote to fall and that I think he is slightly ahead as of now.
Which is all the more reason why I find it hard to believe that UKIP would a) talk up Labour prospects -as PtP says below, Tory voters are less inclined to vote tactically and b) from everything that I and many others see on the ground Labour just simply do not look or campaign like a Party who have even a sniff of a chance.
I will be happy to update as the election progresses !!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/20/labour-disqualifies-130-halifax-party-members-linda-riordan
Odds look right to me.
Or wrong
I think there was a degree of suspicion due to the majority of them having been recruited by the same person, and their subs paid for by the same credit card.
Unfounded and malicious speculation by the party obviously....?
Sounds like Labour need individual voter registration..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31973051
My score = 5
Your answers place you on the left of the political centre in comparison with the overall population in 2014.
Though the questions were rigged to move me further to the right than I should be.
Bloody biased BBC again!
The times they are a changin.
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2015/03/20/review-the-dream-shall-never-die-by-alex-salmond
Is the English version going to be translated as the "The Nightmare Will Never End" ?
Driverless Tube Trains.
There must surely be an error on the scale? The sun outputs 1,300 W/m2. Even if only 1% of that is in the visible where PV cells operate, the implies only a couple hundred square meters of PV cells in all of Germany.
There is a precedent, we have been governed by brainless politicians for years.
I'm looking forward to the definition of a 'Miliband proof investment'
I campaigned quite a lot last time in the Newington area-whilst it might be Labour at local Elections it has very strong BNP / UKIP leanings. This area and others like it -such as Cliftonville-are the Labour areas that UKIP need to turnout to win the seat.
Laura is a genuinely nice person BUT she was very pro Europe and a lot of local Tories knew that-Labour knew that and so did Farge which is why I am sure he had been eyeing up Thanet S for so long.
Mackinlay's UKIP past was a key reason he got the nomination.
Is it true that "125" was a reference to the average time they were late by?
Maybe an 'M' missing?
Amusingly, I was warned to be especially cautious when taking instructions from politicians and their families (British and foreign) and to consider requiring them to provide enhanced disclosure. Politicians and their families are considered more likely than the population as a whole to be recycling the proceeds of crime through property purchases.
Agree, SNP/UKIP/Greens gain hugely from being seen as insurgent, anti-establishment parties, can't think why anyone would bet on them entering government, what is the upside for them to do so. So that leaves the LDs, naturally more inclined to coalition, but if the polls are halfway right they will be so stunned post-election that they won't know where to go.
So Con or Lab minority looks best bet, I put most of my chips on Lab minority a few weeks back, as they seem to have more options in a hung parliament. Hedged with Con min and Con maj, just in case middle England can't bring itself to back Ed and the Tories win the 310+ seats I think they need to get back into Downing St.
I'd be interested to know what the feeling on the ground is in North Thanet and whether UKIP's support spreads into the next constituency which demographically I see as being something of a mirror image.
Only 50, did the others not realise they had been signed up? :-)
* There are less than 50 days to go until the most important election in a generation...
* We are on the road to recovery but there's still more to do
* Together we can deliver:
- A Britain that lives within its means (reducing the deficit so we can keep investing in vital public services)
- A job for everyone who wants one (backing businesses to keep creating jobs and opportunities)
- A Britain that rewards work (cutting income tax so people keep more of their hard earned money)
- The best start in life for every child (delivery a good primary school place for every child)
- A home of your own (keeping mortgage rates low and extending our help to buy scheme)
- Security in retirement (increasing the state pension and protecting pensioner benefits)
* Don't let Labour wreck the progress we have made as a country
* Let's stick with the plan and secure a better future for you, your family and for Britain
A nicely positive message, with some specific promises. A couple of slightly uncomfortable dog whistles there & I wish they wouldn't keep promising to protection pensioner benefits.
Were they all named 'Martin Taylor'?
a) they did not have electric train heating, and
b) they were a load of non-standard nonsense by copper-topped Swindon idiots who felt the knew best, but didn't.
You are on firmer ground with the magnificent Deltics, but even those thoroughbreds were maintenance nightmares and could only top 100MPH.
The HST 125s are a superlative piece of industrial design and the pinnacle of locomotive design in this country.
(And I'm not just saying that because they were designed in Derby). :-)